Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Overview

September 2003

ISSUE: Human demand for ecosystem services is quickly growing around the world…

Water

One-third of the world’s population is now subject to water scarcity.

Population facing water scarcity will double over the next 30 years

Food

Food production must increase to meet the needs of an additional 3 billion people over the next 30 years

Timber

Wood fuel is the only source of fuel for one third of the world’s population.

Wood demand will double in next 50 years.

ISSUE: A recent study* shows that the capacity of many ecosystems to provide certain services has been declining…

Excellent

Good

Fair

Poor

Bad

Not Assessed

Agro-ec

osyste

m

Coastal

System

s

Forest S

ystem

s

Freshwate

r

Grassla

nds

Food-Fiber Production

Water Quality

Water Quantity

Biodiversity

Carbon StorageIncreasing

Decreasing

Mixed

Condition of Ecosystem

ChangingCapacity

Key

*Source: Pilot Assessment of Global Ecosystems. 2000. WRI, IFPRI

Ecosystem Type

Services

ISSUE: Despite knowledge of the increasing demand and diminishing or endangered supply, science is not being effectively brought to bear on these challenges…

Existing mechanisms for linking science and policy are highly sectoral whereas the major problems today are increasingly multisectoral.

Such mechanisms include: Forest Resource Assessment, World Water Assessment, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, etc.

Significant issues identified by scientists are not on policy

agendas. E.g., Change in nitrogen and phosphorous cycles receives little

attention outside of scientific literature New data sources, methodologies and models are underutilized

in many countries. E.g., Remote sensing tools and data; Scenarios development

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment is: An international scientific assessment to be completed in 2004 Designed to meet a portion of the assessment needs of

Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD), Ramsar Wetlands Convention, other partners including the private sector and civil society

Focused on the consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well-being

Undertaken at multiple scales (local to global) Designed to both provide information and build capacity to

provide information Expected to be repeated at 5-10 year intervals if it

successfully meets needs

The MA focuses on:

Ecosystem services

The consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well being

The consequences of changes in ecosystems for other life on earth

Ecosystem Services are the benefits people obtain

from ecosystems

RegulatingBenefits obtained from regulation of

ecosystem processes

• climate regulation• disease regulation

• flood regulation

• detoxification

ProvisioningGoods produced or

provided by ecosystems

• food • fresh water• fuel wood

• fiber• biochemicals

• genetic resources

CulturalNon-material benefits

obtained from ecosystems

• spiritual • recreational

• aesthetic• inspirational• educational • communal• symbolic

SupportingServices necessary for production of other ecosystem services

• Soil formation• Nutrient cycling

• Primary production

The MA considers the consequences of ecosystem change for human well-being

The MA is an Integrated Assessment IPCC looks at impacts of one driver (climate) on different systems;

MA will integrate the effects of multiple drivers on all ecosystems Driver

Response

HumanImpact

Ecosystems

Health Economics Social

ClimateChange

Land CoverChange

BiodiversityLoss

NutrientLoading Etc.

Millennium AssessmentIPCC

Climate Change

Energy Sector Biodiversity Food

Supply Water

Health Economics Social

Organizational Structure of the MA

Sub-Global AssessmentWorking Group

Sub-Global AssessmentWorking Group ConditionCondition ScenariosScenarios ResponseResponse

Global Assessment Working Groups

MA BoardMA Board

Assessment PanelWorking Group ChairsAssessment PanelWorking Group Chairs

Support FunctionsDirector, Administration,

Logistics, Data Management

Support FunctionsDirector, Administration,

Logistics, Data Management

Outreach & Engagement

Outreach & Engagement

Review Board Chairs

Review Board Chairs

Chapter Review Editors

Chapter Review Editors

Status: MA Timeline of Activities

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

1st Design Mtg

UN Launch

2nd Design Mtg

1st WG Mtgs

2nd WG Mtgs

Conceptual Framework Report

Release

3rd WG Mtgs

Joint WG Mtg

Begin Review

Board Approval

Assessment & Synthesis Release &Outreach

Review WG Mtgs

The MA Board and design are reflective of a full spectrum of stakeholder groups:

Private sectorPrivate sector

• MA has developed a close relationship with the World Business Council on Sustainable Development

• Individual companies are represented by Board members• MA findings will be relevant to intermediaries such as credit

agencies, institutional investors, and trade organizations

Media and PublicMedia and Public

National and sub-national governments

National and sub-national governments

• ~180 governments have endorsed the MA through their participation in international conventions

• Administrative authorities are also engaged as users at other levels

International organizationsInternational organizations

• The MA was featured as a key action in the UN Secretary-General’s “Millennium Report”, April 2000

• The MA was launched by Kofi Annan, June 2001

• 13 international institutions are directly represented on the MA Board

Local communities and civil society

Local communities and civil society

• Traditional knowledge of indigenous groups will be incorporated in the MA

• MA has been designed to meet some assessment needs of indigenous and local communities

• MA will provide information to various news outlets, journals, etc.

• Findings may become part of a public information campaign on ecosystems

Status: Development of Content

Conceptual Framework Report completed 500 Authors, 80 countries 2-3 meetings of each Working Group Cross-cut meetings: Biodiv, Drivers, Health, Food, Marine,

Water Zero order draft chapters for ~all chapters except Sub-

Global 10 Sub-global assessments approved 12 additional ‘candidates’ Review Board established Core datasets available On-line data catalog and exploration tool Cross-check against user needs

Status: Process of User Engagement

Strengthened CBD and Ramsar Authorization and CCD links

CMS new authorizing convention Country strategies underway in 25 countries

(e.g., national user forums during 2003 involving ~700 people)

Private sector industry group briefings + WBCSD workshops

Board communications committee 20 National Academies as partners

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA)

First MA Product, published

September 2003

Conceptual Framework Report: “Ecosystems and Human Well-Being”

Purpose: To provide a unified approach, rationale, and

terminology for the assessment All members of the assessment panel and CLAs from all

Working Groups were engaged in writing To inform MA users as well as the scientific

community of the nature of the product to come and its foundation

To provide information to those interested in applying elements of the MA in other assessment activities

Conceptual Framework

Using the Conceptual Framework as a guide, MA Working Groups will try to answer core questions

Scenarios Working Group Given plausible changes in

primary drivers, what will be the consequences for ecosystems, their services, and human well-being?

Responses Working Group What can we do about it?

Sub-Global Assessment Working GroupAll of the above… at sub-global scales

Conditions and Trends Working Group

What is the current condition and historical trends of ecosystems and their services?

What have been the consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well-being?

Condition and Trends Assessment Report

I Introduction CF, Methods, Drivers, Biodiversity,

Human Well-Being and Vulnerability

II Ecosystem Services Analysed by major ecosystem

services

III Condition and Causality – Analyzed by Ecosystems

Multiple services from various systems

IV Synthesis

MA Reporting Categories or “Systems” examples

MARINE Ocean, with fishing typically a major driver of change

Marine areas where the sea is deeper than 50 meters.

COASTAL Interface between ocean and land, extending seawards to about the middle of the continental shelf and inland to include all areas strongly influenced by the proximity to the ocean

Area between 50 meters below mean sea level and 50 meters above the high tide level or extending landward to a distance 100 kilometers from shore. Includes coral reefs, intertidal zones, estuaries, coastal aquaculture, and seagrass communities.

INLANDWATER

Permanent water bodies inland from the coastal zone, and areas whose ecology and use are dominated by the permanent, seasonal, or intermittent occurrence of flooded conditions

Rivers, lakes, floodplains, reservoirs, and wetlands; includes inland saline systems. Note that the Ramsar Convention considers “wetlands” to include both inland water and coastal categories.

Goal: Develop scenarios that embrace a useful range of plausible futures of the world’s ecosystem services

Our vision of scenarios Embrace plausible outcomes of unpredictable

and ambiguous drivers (as well as predictable ones) Emphasize surprises, not central tendencies

Consistent with state-of-the-art ecological information Quantitative and qualitative

To the year 2050 (slices looking at years between now and then)

Rosy

TechnoFix

VariedExpt

DevelopFix

Fortress

More Positive

More Neutral

More Negative

Joint Development with Responses

Working GroupRetrospective

Based on Millennium Development GoalsNo new modeling

Developed by Scenarios Working Group

ProspectiveQuantified

Relationships and Interactions of People and Nature

connected

disaggregatedGlo

bal i

nstit

utio

ns

responsive proactive

Approach to cross-scale feedbacks

Development Fix

Fortress

Technological fix

VariedExperiments

Scenarios Framework

Scenarios Assessment Report Outline

Executive SummaryPrefaceChapter 1. History of global scenariosChapter 2. Ecology in global scenariosChapter 3. Driving forcesChapter 4. Assessment of quantification and modeling

approachesChapter 5. MethodsChapter 6. Preamble to the scenariosChapter 7. StorylinesChapter 8. Ecosystem goods and services across the

scenariosChapter 9. Human well-being across the scenariosChapter 10. Trade-offs among ecosystem servicesChapter 11. Synthesis: Lessons learnedChapter 12. Synthesis: Policy implications

Responses Working Group Timeline

1st WG Meeting: New Delhi, June 2002

Zero Order Drafts: March 2003 2nd WG Meeting: Frankfurt, May 2003

Responses are defined as the range of policies or measures that impact the state and functioning of ecosystems: Measures that impact eco-systems directly or

indirectly Initiated by decision makers at global, regional or

local levels Legal, economic, financial, institutional,

technological, social or cognitive interventions Planned to affect indirect drivers, direct drivers, or

human well-being

Responses in the MA

Part I: Conceptual Framework for Evaluating Responses

Part II: Assessment of Past and Current Responses

Part III: Synthesis: “Ingredients for successful responses”

Responses Assessment Report Structure

Multiple ScalesThe MA is a multi-scale assessment - it is expected that findings at any scale of a multi-scale assessment will differ from those of a single-scale assessment as a result of information and perspectives from other scales

Regional

UsersRegional Development Banks, etc.

NationalGovernment

Local Community

Global Assessment

National

Local

Why undertake a multi-scale assessment?

Permit social and ecological processes to be assessed at their characteristic scale

Allow greater spatial, temporal, causal detail to be considered as scale becomes finer

Allow independent validation of larger-scale conclusions

Permit reporting and response options matched to the scale where decision-making takes place

MA Cross-cutting Issues

PragueCombined WG

Condition

Scenarios

Responses

Sub-Global

2002 2003 2004

Biodiversity

Health CoastalMarine

Food

Water

DrylandsDrivers

Seven issues were identified that cut across all working groups.

Special meetings have been held to address these “cross-cutting” issues.

What are the Outputs of the Global Assessment? 2003 People and Ecosystems: A Framework for Assessment

Release: September MA Data Catalog

Datasets being used in the MA

2004 Conference Proceedings: Bridging Scales and

Epistemologies in Multi-scale Assessments

2005 Technical Assessment Reports (300-800 pages ea.) and

Summaries for Decision-makers (SDMs) Sub-global Assessment Condition/Trends Assessment Scenario Assessment Response Options Assessment Summary Volume (SDMs of 4 reports)

2005 Synthesis Reports (30-50 page)

Ecosystems and Human Well-being Biodiversity (CBD) Desertification (CCD) Wetlands (Ramsar) Private Sector Health and Ecosystems (tentative) Food and Cultivated Systems (tentative)

Board Summary of Key Messages (10 p.) Other Products

Reports available over internet (multiple language for summary docs) Interactive web-based MA indicator exploration capability Partnerships for expanded outreach: radio, theatre, documentaries,

film (tentative) Partnerships for capacity-building/training outreach (tentative)

Assessment Outputs: Global (continued)

India Pilot Assessment (2000) Final Assessment (2005)

Southern Africa Assessment Pilot Assessment (2002) Final Assessment (2005)

Norway Pilot Assessment (2002) Coastal British Columbia (Final 2004) Small Islands of Papua New Guinea (Final 2005) Laguna Lake Basin Philippines (Final 2005) Northern Range Trinidad (Final 2005) Sweden Local Assessments (Final 2005) Salar de Atacama, Chile (Final 2005) Mekong Wetlands, Vietnam (Final 2005) Sinai Peninsula (Final 2005) Western China (Final 2006)

What are the Outputs of the Sub-Global Assessments?

Capacity Building

A Central Objective of the MA, capacity building will occur through multiple outlets:

Access to Data/Information Sub-Global Assessments Training Materials Young Fellows Program Scenarios and Modeling Training Course

Partnerships for Distance Learning

The Secretariat remains open to the identification and development of other capacity building opportunities during the course of the assessment.

Director’s OfficeThe World Fish Center

(ICLARM), Malaysia

Director’s OfficeThe World Fish Center

(ICLARM), Malaysia

Sub-Global TSU,ICLARM, Malaysia

Sub-Global TSU,ICLARM, Malaysia

Condition TSUUNEP-WCMC, U.K.

(& South Africa)

Condition TSUUNEP-WCMC, U.K.

(& South Africa)

Scenarios TSUSCOPE, France

(& Italy, United States)

Scenarios TSUSCOPE, France

(& Italy, United States)

Response Options TSUInstitute for Economic

Growth, India(& RIVM, Netherlands)

Response Options TSUInstitute for Economic

Growth, India(& RIVM, Netherlands)

GEF, UNF Grant AdministrationUNEP,Kenya

GEF, UNF Grant AdministrationUNEP,Kenya

Distributed SecretariatIndividuals and Organizations around the world support the entire process

Outreach & Engagement WRI & Meridian Institute,

USA

Outreach & Engagement WRI & Meridian Institute,

USA

Meeting SupportMeridian Institute, USA

Meeting SupportMeridian Institute, USA

TSU: Technical Support Unit . Organizations/countries listed in parentheses provide or host additional support and technical staff

FINANCIAL CONTRIBUTIONS(~ $17 MILLION)

MA receives financial and in-kind contributions from a variety of sources

Sponsors

• Global Environment Facility

• United Nations Foundation

• Packard Foundation

• World Bank

• United Nations Environment Program

Other Donors

• Government of Norway

• Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

• Rockefeller Foundation

• NASA

• ICSU

• Swedish International Biodiversity Programme

• Christensen Fund

IN-KIND CONTRIBUTIONS(~ $6 MILLION)

• Norway

• China

• India

• Japan

• Germany

• Netherlands

• United States (NASA, USGS, ORNL, USDA)

• European Commission

• FAO, UNDP, WHO, UNESCO, UNEP

• ICRAF, ICLARM

• Numerous other countries, NGOs, Universities and other institutions are supporting travel costs of experts

Visit the MA Websitewww.millenniumassessment.org