Millennium Ecosystem Assessment · 2008-01-08 · Millennium Ecosystem Assessment Integrated or...

Millennium Ecosystem Assessment



Integrated Assessment through the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

Prof. A.H. ZakriUnited Nations University Institute for Advanced Studies

March 2003


Outline

Rationale for Integrated Assessments

MA Conceptual Framework and Design

Status of Working Groups

Organization, Products and Timing


ModelsIntergovernmental Panel on

Climate Change (IPCC) & Ozone Assessment

Assessment

Monitoring Research

Stakeholders: GovernmentsPrivate SectorCivil Society

Science Assessment: A social process to bring the findings of science to bear on the needs of decision-makers

RationaleRationale

Scientific assessments provide valuable information to decision-makers; most focus on single issues or sectors such as climate change, agriculture, or forestry


Integrated or ‘multi-sectoral’ scientific assessments are a better match with scientific capacity and better meet

decision-makers needs

Capacity doesn’t exist to meet growing demand for assessment information on an issue-by-issue or sector by sector basis.

Unrealistic to expect the global scientific community to undertake IPCC-like assessments for all other global conventions (Biodiversity,Desertification, Wetlands, Migratory Species, etc.)Multiple assessment processes would also place far to great a demand on individual countries for expertise, input and involvement.

Moreover, the major problems and decisions being faced today are increasingly multisectoral.

For example, an assessment addressing only food supply or agriculture production can’t help a decision-maker grapple with trade-offs between agricultural production, clean water, biodiversity conservation and aquaculture production

RationaleRationale


Integrated assessments are better able to examine the trade-offs involved in resource management decisions

Source: Ayensu et al. 1999. Science 286:685-686.

Freshwater supply and demand

Food supply and demand

Forest product supply and demand

Biodiversityloss

Climatechange

Water availability

Water use and nutrient loss

Erosion andwater flow

Loss

and f

ragmen

tation

of ha

bitat

Redu

ced r

esilie

nce t

o cha

nge

Habit

at los

sHabitat loss

Loss of crop genetic diversityHabitat change

Change in transpiration & albedo

N, C

H 4, N 20

emiss

ions

Hydro

logic

CO2

and

tempe

rature

chan

ges

Precipitation & temperature

Land transformation

RationaleRationale


For example, separate assessments of climate, biodiversity or water might yield different priorities for conservation areas. An integrated assessment allows the trade-offs among these goals to be examined.

Climate Assessment- Carbon sequestration

Biodiversity Assessment- Species Richness

Water Assessment- City Watershed

Multiple Benefits

Watershed boundary

RationaleRationale


Outline



Status of Working Groups




An international scientific assessment to be completed in 2004:Designed to meet a portion of the assessment needs of:

- Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), - Convention to Combat Desertification (CCD), - Ramsar Convention on Wetlands,- Convention on Migratory Species (CMS)- other partners including the private sector and civil society

Focused on the consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well-beingUndertaken at multiple scales (local to global)Designed to both provide information and build capacity Expected an assessment modeled on the MA will be repeated at 5-10 year intervals if it successfully meets needs

DesignDesign


The MA focuses on:

Ecosystem servicesProvisioning: e.g. food, water, fiber, fuel woodRegulating: e.g., flood control, disease controlCultural: e.g. spiritual, recreational, aestheticSupporting: e.g. pollination, soil formation

The consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well being.

The consequences of changes in ecosystems for other life on earth

DesignDesign


Ecosystem Services: The benefits people obtain from ecosystems

RegulatingBenefits obtained from regulation of

ecosystem processes

• climate regulation• disease control• flood control• detoxification

ProvisioningGoods produced or

provided by ecosystems

• food • fresh water• fuel wood

• fiber• biochemicals

• genetic resources

CulturalNon-material

benefits obtained from ecosystems

• spiritual • recreational • aesthetic

• inspirational• educational • communal• symbolic

SupportingServices necessary for the production of all other ecosystem services.

• Soil formation• Nutrient cycling

• Primary production

DesignDesign


SecurityAbility to live in an environmentally clean

and safe shelterAbility to reduce vulnerability to ecological

shocks and stress

Regulating ServicesBenefits obtained from regulation of

ecosystem processesclimate regulationdisease regulationwater regulationwater purification

Cultural ServicesNon-material benefits obtained from

ecosystemsspiritual and religious

recreation and ecotourismaesthetic

inspirationaleducational

sense of placecultural heritage

I i i

Ecosystem Services

Provisioning ServicesProducts obtained from ecosystems

foodfresh waterfuel wood

fiberbiochemicals

genetic resources

Supporting Services

Services necessary for the production of all

other ecosystem services

Soil formationNutrient cycling

Primary Production

Basic Material for a Good LifeAbility to access resources to earn income

and gain a livelihood

Health Ability to be adequately nourishedAbility to be free from avoidable diseaseAbility to have adequate and clean drinking

waterAbility to have clean airAbility to have energy to keep warm and

coolAbility to have access to medicinesGood Social RelationsOpportunity to express aesthetic and

recreational values associated with ecosystems

Opportunity to express cultural and spiritual values associated with ecosystems

Opportunity to observe, study and learn about ecosystems

Freedoms and

Choice

Ecosystem Services influence multiple constituents of human well-being

Constituents of Well-being

DesignDesign


Conceptual FrameworkLocal

= Strategies and Interventions

Regional

Human Wellbeing & Poverty Reduction

Basic Material for a good lifeHealth Good social relationsSecurityFreedoms and choice

Indirect Drivers of ChangeDemographic ChangeEconomic Change (incl globalization, trade, market, & policy framework)Social and Political Change (incl governance, institutional, & legal framework) Technological changeLifestyle and Behavioral change

Global

Life on Earth

Ecosystem Services

Provisioning (food, water) Regulating (disease control))Cultural (spiritual, aesthetic) Supporting (primary production, soil formation)

Life on Earth: Biodiversity

DesignDesign

Direct Drivers of ChangeChanges in local land use and land coverSpecies introductions or removalsTechnology adaptation and useExternal inputs (e.g., fertilizer use, pest control, irrigation)HarvestClimate changeNatural physical and biological drivers (e.g., volcanoes, evolution) uninfluenced by people


MA Design

Political legitimacyScientific credibilitySaliency

MA

RamsarRamsarCCDCCDCBDCBDSBSTTA CST STRP

MA

Authorized by three conventions and UN

Good governmental policy must be based on reliable scientific data. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment is an outstanding example ofthe sort of international scientific and political cooperation that is needed to further the cause of sustainable development. - UN Secretary General Kofi A. Annan, April 3, 2000, We the Peoples: The Role of the United Nations in the 21st Century

Based on IPCC Procedures and Structure4 Working Groups~ 500 Coordinating Lead Authors and Lead AuthorsNorth-South, Regional, Disciplinary, and Gender BalanceIndependent Review BoardTwo rounds of peer review (Government and Expert review; > 1500 reviewers)Line-by-line sign-off by “users” (represented on Board)Policy relevant, but not policy prescriptive

Follows IPCC procedures

International Conventions & National Governments

Private Sector

Civil Society

Joint needs of multiple users

Key needs of individual users

Focus strongly shaped by audience

DesignDesign

FCCCFCCC

IPCCIPCC

SBSTA

Research, UN Data, National and International AssessmentsFCCC: Framework Convention on Climate Change SBSTA: Subsidiary Body on Scientific and Technical AdviceSBSTTA: Subsidiary Body on Scientific, Technical and Technological Advice CST: Committee on Science and TechnologySTRP: Scientific and Technical Review Panel


The MA is a Multi-scale AssessmentExpect that findings at any scale of a multi-scale assessment will be improved by information and perspectives from other scales

Regional

UsersRegional Development Banks, etc.

NationalGovernment

Local Community

Global Assessment

National

Local

RationaleCharacteristic scale of processes

Greater resolution at smaller scales

Independent validation conclusions

Response options matched to the scale where decision-making takes place

DesignDesign


Candidate assessments

Approved assessments

Proposals

PNG islands

SouthernAfrica

multiple local

WesternChina

3 Major Basins

India Local

ASB sites(1)

Sweden Local

Norway

BC coast

Bolivia

Arabia

Sao Paulo

Portugal

Colombian Andes

Altai-Sayan

Vilcanota, Peru

Sinai

Atacama, Chile

Costa Rica

Indonesia/ Arafura Timor

Central Asia

Fiji

Trinidad/ Caribbean

Himalayas

Philippines

Vietnam Mekong

~3-4 SEA regional

MA Sub-global Assessments

(1) ASB: Alternatives to Slash and Burn –multiple local sites worldwide

DesignDesign


MA has sought to establish “multi-scale assessments”. Southern Africa assessment involves three scales

SADC region 3 drainage basins Local assessments

Source: Reyers, B., SAfMA Lessons Learned (Panama, June 2002)

Zambezi

Gariep

Okavango

DesignDesign


Outline



Scope of Working Groups



MA Working Groups

Condition Working GroupWhat is the current condition and historical trends of ecosystems and their services?What have been the consequences of changes in ecosystems for human well-being?

Scenario Working GroupGiven plausible changes in primary drivers, what will be the consequences for ecosystems, their services, and human well-being?Responses Working Group

What can we do about it?

Sub-Global Assessment Working GroupAll of the above… at sub-global scales

Working GroupsWorking Groups


Examples of questions that the MA is addressing:

Source: Burke et al. 2000 Pilot Analysis of Global Ecosystems, WRI

Biogeochemical cycles: What will be the consequence of the expected 30% increase in human contribution to fixed nitrogen over the next 30 years for ecosystems and human well-being?

Existing Hypoxic Zones



How many species will go extinct over the next three decades? And what impact will that have?

What are the highest priority areas to conserve?

What would it take to achieve targets discussed in the CBD for biodiversity conservation?




What has been the impact of ecosystem change on human health?

What policies and actions concerning ecosystems can best contribute to the alleviation of poverty?




Outline



Scope of Working Groups



Ma Organizational Structure

MA BoardMA Board

Assessment PanelWorking Group ChairsAssessment PanelWorking Group Chairs

Sub-Global AssessmentWorking Group

Sub-Global AssessmentWorking Group ConditionCondition ScenariosScenarios ResponseResponse

Global Assessment Working Groups

Support FunctionsDirector, Administration,

Logistics, Data Management

Support FunctionsDirector, Administration,

Logistics, Data ManagementOutreach &

EngagementOutreach &

Engagement

Organization & ProductsOrganization & Products

Review Board Chairs

Review Board Chairs

Chapter Review Editors

Chapter Review Editors


MA Board

A 40-member Board representing “Users” of the findings of the MA process

Co-chairs: Robert Watson, A.H. Zakri

Institutional Representation- Conventions and UN agencies - Donors (GEF, UN Foundation)- International science organizations (CGIAR, ICSU, IUCN)

At large representation- Private sector, NGOs, scientists, indigenous people



Assessment Panel

Co-ChairsAngela Cropper, The Cropper Foundation, TrinidadHarold Mooney, Stanford University, USA

Panel MembersDoris Capistrano, Ford Foundation, IndiaSteve Carpenter, University of Wisconsin, USAKanchan Chopra, Institute for Economic Growth, IndiaPartha Dasgupta, Cambridge University, UKRashid Hassan, University of Pretoria, South AfricaRik Leemans, National Institute of Public Health & Environment, The NetherlandsRobert May, Oxford University, UKPrabhu L. Pingali, International Maize & Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), MexicoCristian Samper, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, PanamaBob Scholes, CSIR, South AfricaZhao Shidong, Chinese Academy of Sciences, China

OrganizationOrganizationOrganization & ProductsOrganization & Products


Director’s OfficeThe World Fish Centre

(ICLARM), Malaysia

Director’s OfficeThe World Fish Centre

(ICLARM), MalaysiaSub-Global TSU,

ICLARM, MalaysiaSub-Global TSU,

ICLARM, Malaysia

Condition TSUUNEP-WCMC, U.K.

(& South Africa)

Condition TSUUNEP-WCMC, U.K.

(& South Africa)

Scenarios TSUSCOPE, France

(& Mexico, United States)

Scenarios TSUSCOPE, France

(& Mexico, United States)

Response Options TSUInstitute for Economic

Growth, India(& RIVM, Netherlands)

Response Options TSUInstitute for Economic

Growth, India(& RIVM, Netherlands)

GEF, UNF Grant AdminUNEP,Kenya

GEF, UNF Grant AdminUNEP,Kenya

Supported by a Distributed Secretariat

Outreach & Engagement WRI & Meridian Institute,

USA

Outreach & Engagement WRI & Meridian Institute,

USAMeeting Support

Meridian Institute, USAMeeting Support

Meridian Institute, USA

TSU: Technical Support Unit



Timeline2001 2002 2003 2004

April: 1st technical design meeting (Netherlands)

October: 2nd technical design meeting (Cape Town)

November: Call for nominations for working groups

January: 2nd MA board meeting (Kuala Lumpur)

March –December:CLAs and LAs invited

1st MA working group meetings

Conceptual Framework draft undergoes peer review

Selection of Additional Sub-global Assessments

2nd Working group meetings

Cross-cut Team meetings

Release of “Conceptual Framework Assessment Report”

DecemberBeginning of review process for assessment reports

Review process

November:Release of Assessment Reports and Initial Synthesis Report



Capacity Building

Sub-Global AssessmentsAccess to Data/InformationTraining MaterialsYoung Fellows ProgramScenarios and Modeling Training CoursePartnerships for Distance Learning etc.



Assessment Outputs

Conceptual Framework (2003)

Assessment Reports (2004)Sub-global Assessment Condition/Trends AssessmentScenario AssessmentResponse Options AssessmentSummary Volume (SPMs of 4 reports)

Sub-Global Assessment Reports and Products

India Pilot Assessment (2000)SAfMA Pilot Assessment (2002)Norway Pilot Assessment (2002)Assessment Reports (2003 to ??)

Synthesis ReportsBiodiversity (2004)Desertification (2005)Wetlands (2005)Private Sector (2005)Human Well-being (2005)

Other ProductsRadio, documentaries, InternetPartnerships to enable distribution to broader audience



How to get involved?

1. Provide input on issues that the MA should addressa. What are the priorities for information and methods as seen from

the perspective of potential users?

2. Participate as experts in the global assessment

3. Participate in the review process (government, academic, private sector, NGOs)

4. Apply MA findings, information and data within country or region

5. Incorporate MA methods in national and sub-national assessments and planning processes


Mechanisms for Involvement

1. National delegations to Conventions2. MA Affiliated Scientific Organizations and National Academies of

Sciences (ASO)3. Sub-global assessments

a. SGAs are self-generated and self-funded (i.e., MA doesn’t decide where they take place). Opportunity to lay groundwork for assessments that would continue after the MA is concluded

4. MA User Forumsa. Preliminary meetings held in 20 countries involving 700 peopleb. Informal multi-sectoral groups, linked to ongoing national

environmental and sustainable development planning activitiesc. Groups will

1. Help to coordinate input into the MA (e.g., review processes)2. Receive MA information and documents3. Help to ensure outreach to relevant users


MA Sponsors

Financial contributions

Sponsors• Global Environment Facility • United Nations Foundation • Packard Foundation • World Bank

Other Donors• United Nations Environment Program • Government of Norway • Kingdom of Saudi Arabia• Rockefeller Foundation• NASA

In-kind contributions

• Government of Norway• Government of China• European Commission• FAO, UNDP, WHO, UNESCO, UNEP• NASA • ICRAF, ICLARM• Numerous other countries and

institutions are supporting travel costs of experts



Use the MA Website and Intranet

www.millenniumassessment.org&

www.millenniumassessment.org/intranet/

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