Military Aircraft Fleet and MRO Forecast

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2013 Military Fleet Forecast Copyright © 2013, Aviation Week Fleet Evolution Fleet MRO Requirements 2014 Military Aircraft Forecast
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  • 2013MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2013,AviationWeek

    FleetEvolutionFleetMRORequirements

    2014MilitaryAircraftForecast

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek 2

    2014AviationWeekForecasts

    2012 AviationWeekexpandsdatastaffandproductofferingstoincludefleetexpertiseandMROAnalytics

    January2013 ReleaseoffirstAviationWeekFleetandMROForecasts

    August2013 AviationWeekacquiredbyPenton aprofessionalinformationservicescompanywithproductlinesinsixteenmarkets.

    Whatsahead continuousimprovement;productdevelopment FleetDiscovery

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    AviationWeekIntelligenceAnalysis

    The2014forecastcombinesAviationWeeksfourdecadesoffleetinventorydataWorldwidenetworkofinformationfeedsonoperationalfleetsMaintenance,repair,overhaulschedules,dataandtrendsGlobalindustrialcapacityEditorialinsightandbroadbasedmarketperspectiveExclusions:

    Chinese/Russianoriginaircraft(unlesswithWesternengines) PistonpoweredLightAircraft/Helicopters UAVs

    Howwedidit TheMethodology

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    HeadlinesandTrends

    WholefleetssettodisappearfromUSinventories Legacyfleetsbeingwithdrawnbywealthiernations,butsetfor

    manymoreyearsserviceelsewhere Industryforecasttodelivercloseto8,000aircraftinnext10years. Fighter/AttackandTrainerstobeworthsome$28billionin

    Airframemaintenanceinthenextfiveyearsalone RotaryWingtransportaircrafttoleaddeliveriesforthedecade GlobalMilitaryAircraftMROrequirements20152024forecastat

    $670billion,almost50%ofthisinFieldMaintenance

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    InServiceAircraftSnapshotByCategory

    RotaryWingTransports/Utilityleadtheway

    GlobalMilitaryInserviceAircraftSharebyRole

    23%

    4%

    6%

    37%

    4%

    1%

    16%

    1% 8%

    Fighter/Attack

    General Aviation/Util ity

    RotaryWingAttack

    RotaryWingTransport/Utility

    Special Mission

    Tanker

    Trainer/LightAttack

    TransportHeavy

    TransportLt/Med

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    10YearMilitaryAircraftMROForecast

    ProjectedMROrequirementsbyaircraftOEM Boeing,LockheedMartinaircraftclearleadersinMROrequirements,followedindistantthirdbySikorsky.

    BellBoeingsV22:justunder$15Brequirementprojectedfor10yearperiod,keepingBellinfourthplace.

    Eurofighter:asingleplatformOEMbutstillinthetop10thankstocontinuingproductionforseveralyears

    AircraftManufacturer MRORequirements(US$millions)

    Boeing $224,303

    LockheedMartin $144,168

    Sikorsky $72,360

    Bell/BellBoeing $38,619

    AirbusHelicopters $22,446

    NorthropGrumman $17,129

    Dassault $17,913

    Beechcraft $11,380

    Eurofighter $10,662

    CASA $9,035

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    Fighter/AttackFleetActivity

    WhileNorthAmericaandEuropeclearlyleadthemarketshareforfighter/attackaircraft,bothshownetdeclineforthedecade.

    AsiaPacificalsoexpectsdecreaseinfighter/attackaircraftfleetsforthedecadewhiletheMiddleEastfleetsshowanincrease.

    NorthAmericasFighter/Attackfleetremainsthelargest

    Region 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

    NorthAmerica 3318 3181 3141 3080 3007 2985 2956 2939 2922 2905

    Europe 2218 2214 2186 2130 2084 2066 2032 2015 1991 1928

    AsiaPacific 1718 1715 1711 1715 1708 1690 1690 1654 1665 1656

    MiddleEast 930 972 1017 1062 1080 1079 1073 1067 1060 1054

    Africa 346 336 328 328 328 328 328 328 328 328

    LatinAmerica 204 210 208 214 220 226 232 238 244 244

    Unknown 22 44 64 82 90 98 98 98 98 123

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    Fighter/AttackMROMarket

    EuropeseesslightnetdropinMROrequirementsoverthe10yearperiod.

    NorthAmericaslightdipbeforerecovery MiddleEast,AsiaPacificbothshowslow

    growth

    Totalrequirementsexpectedtoreach$228B

    Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

    NorthAmerica 9,464 9,124 9,192 9,271 9,310 9,350 9,364 9,399 9,432 9,462

    Europe 5,254 5,292 5,274 5,178 5,076 5,067 5,013 5,006 4,982 4,846

    AsiaPacific 3,969 4,010 4,056 4,110 4,136 4,130 4,162 4,074 4,150 4,186

    MiddleEast 2,439 2,569 2,709 2,859 2,958 3,006 3,048 3,089 3,128 3,170

    Africa 776 778 782 798 814 830 847 864 881 899

    LatinAmerica 367 380 383 397 412 427 443 459 475 485

    Unknown 31 72 114 152 166 180 184 187 191 246

    Projected Annual MRO Requirements by Region 2015-2024 (US$ millions)

    AfricaAsia Pacific

    Europe

    Latin AmericaMiddle East

    North America

    Unknown AfricaAsia PacificEuropeLatin AmericaMiddle EastNorth AmericaUnknown

    FiguresinUS$millions

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    RotaryWingAnalysis

    AviationWeekTrends,Headlines GlobalMilitaryRotaryWingMROMarket20152024shouldhit$229billion

    AttackHelicopterMROrequirementsprojectedat$55billion,Transport/Utilityat$174billion

    GlobalMilitaryRotaryWingMROrequirementsexpectedtoremainstablethrough2015,thendropasdrawdownfromfrontlinetakeseffect

    SikorskycommandstheTransportmarket;BoeingdominatesAttackmarketwithApache

    Totalnetincreasefor20152024inAttackInServiceFleetforecastat465 TotalnetincreaseinTransport/UtilityInServiceFleetfordecadealmost

    1500

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    AttackRotaryWingFleetForecast

    AttackHelicoptermarketbyOEM

    OEM RotorcraftFamily Engines

    AgustaWestland A109 Pratt&WhitneyCanadaPW200

    A129MangustaLHTEC(RollsRoyce/Honeywell)CTS800/RollsRoyceGEM

    WAH64D TurbomecaRTM322

    AirbusHelicopters Tiger TurbomecaMTR390

    BellHelicopter AH1Cobra HoneywellT53

    AH1WSuperCobra GET700

    AH1ZZulu/Viper GET700

    Boeing AH64D/E GET700

    MDHelicopters AH6I/J RollsRoyceA250Series4

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    AttackRotaryWingFleetForecast

    AttackRotaryWingInServiceFleet

    U.S.,commandshalfthemarket,butonlyshowsanetincreaseof~70helicoptersoverthedecade.

    MiddleEastsettoacquire~130attackhelicoptersduringdecade(eg.RSLF,QAFAH64s)

    AsiaPacific,Europeexpectedtoadd~60attackhelicopterseach(eg.THKA129,IAFAH64)

    10-Year Forecast Attack Rotor Wing In-Service Fleet

    2,1882,265

    2,3342,406

    2,4612,501 2,526

    2,552 2,5762,598

    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    AttackRotaryWingMROForecast

    $55BillionValueforAttackRotaryWingMRORequirements

    MRORequirementsbyRegion20152024($USmillions)

    0

    5,000

    10,000

    15,000

    20,000

    25,000

    30,000

    35,000

    NorthAmerica

    Europe AsiaPacific MiddleEast Africa&Unknown

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    AttackRotaryWingMROForecast

    GlobalMarket$55Bfor20152024

    Apacheforecastforhighestdemand,followedbyAH1.

    FieldMaintenancecontinuesashighestexpensecategory,followedbyComponents.

    MROrequirementssteadilyincreasingwithnewdeliveriesandlongevityoflegacyfleets

    AircraftOEMAirframeMaintenance

    ComponentMaintenance

    EngineMaintenance

    FieldMaintenance

    AgustaWestland 220 505 126 1,468

    AirbusHelicopters 380 843 190 2,124

    BellHelicopter 1,383 2,401 619 6,187

    Boeing 5,120 10,644 2,179 18,102

    MDHelicopters 667 44 24 897

    Westland 184 356 79 823

    MRO Requirements 2015-2024 by Rotor Wing Family

    0%4%

    3%

    6%

    3%

    19%

    65%

    A109

    A129

    AH-1AH-64

    H369

    TIGER

    WAH-64D

    FiguresinUS$millions

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    Transport/UtilityRotaryWingFleet

    TopThreeAircraftOEMUtilizationbyRegion

    Africa AsiaPacific Europe LatinAmerica MiddleEast NorthAmerica

    AirbusHelicopters BellHelicopter AirbusHelicopters BellHelicopter Sikorsky Sikorsky

    AgustaBell Sikorsky AgustaBell AirbusHelicopters AirbusHelicopters BellHelicopter

    AgustaWestland AirbusHelicopters AgustaWestland Sikorsky BellHelicopter Boeing

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    Transport/UtilityRotaryWingFleet

    BellBoeingV22Projections20152024

    360MV22duetoUSMC,51CV22stoUSAFSpecialOperationsCommand.

    220V22inoperationasofDec2013;36duedeliverythisyear,21in2015

    Multiyearcontractmid2013for93Marineand7USAFa/cinFY1317.

    FirstexportsalestoIsrael(6) SteadilyreplacingCH46E. FurthersalestoJapan,UAEandmoreforIsraelinpipeline

    V-22 Projected Deliveries

    22 22 2220

    17

    13 12 12 12 12

    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    Transport/UtilityRotaryWingMRORequirements

    $20BillionannualMRORequirementsby2024

    Steadygrowthacrossthedecadeasoverallinservicefleetincreasesbyaround1400

    LargestfleetincreasesexpectedinS70/UH60,NH90,CH47,V22,Bell412pluspotentially HALDhruvandKAISurion

    MROSpend20152024(US$millions)

    0

    5,000

    10,000

    15,000

    20,000

    25,000

    2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    SpecialMissionFleetData

    SpecialMissionincludesBombers,EA,ISR,AEW,ASWetc. P3stillaccountsfor20%oftheinservicefleetoverthisdecade. B1&B52soldieron;LRSBstillatleastdecadeaway P8growstojustunder9%oftheinservicefleetby2021.

    InServiceFleetsbyRegion

    Region 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

    NorthAmerica 687 645 656 654 652 655 658 653 648 639

    AsiaPacific 323 323 321 314 314 314 311 308 305 302

    Europe 233 232 231 232 232 232 232 232 232 232

    LatinAmerica 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85 85

    MiddleEast 48 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46 46

    Africa 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41

    Unknown 0 0 3 6 9 12 12 12 12 12

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    SpecialMissionAircraftMRO

    TotalValueofMROforthedecadeshouldreach$59billion.

    NorthAmericaleadsMROrequirementsforSpecialMissionaircraft.

    AsiaPacificexpectedtohold#2positioninrequirements,aheadofEurope.

    NorthAmericanrequirementsshowsmalldeclinebeforesmallgrowthlaterinthedecade.

    MRORequirementsbyRegion

    Special Mission MRO Spend by Region 2015-2024 (US$millions)

    0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

    Unknown

    Africa

    MiddleEast

    LatinAmerica

    Europe

    AsiaPacific

    NorthAmerica

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    MilitaryTankerFleet

    Newtankersdeliveratsteadypaceinlateryearsofdecade;planistodeliver55KC46As(767)by2019;totalUSAFbuyisexpectedtobe179.

    Stillalmost300KC135aircraftattheendofthedecade,while59KC10swillbeginretiringin2016ifsequestrationisnotlifted.

    KC135scontinueasbackbone

    Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024

    NorthAmerica 445 438 438 438 438 438 438 438 438 438

    Europe 42 44 45 47 49 51 53 55 56 56

    AsiaPacific 18 20 24 28 30 30 30 30 30 30

    MiddleEast 18 20 23 23 23 23 23 23 23 23

    LatinAmerica 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13

    Unknown 0 2 4 6 8 8 8 8 8 8

    Tankers: Yearly Average Installed Base by Aircraft Type

    61%11%

    11%

    8%

    3%

    3%

    3%

    KC-135KC-10767A330707C-130Other

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    MilitaryTankerMROForecast

    Forecastpredictsslowbuildbeginningin2015,untilitsteadieslateinthedecade

    WhileNorthAmericanrequirementsdominates,growthscheduledforallregionsthroughoutdecade.

    TankerAirframeMROMarketfordecadesettohit$19B

    Tanker MRO Spend Forecast 2015-2024 (US$millions)

    129

    294

    593

    648

    1,248

    16,566

    0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 16,000 18,000 20,000

    Unknown

    LatinAmerica

    AsiaPacific

    MiddleEast

    Europe

    NorthAmerica

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    MilitaryTankerMROForecast

    Field&airframemaintenancecontinuetoleadMROrequirements.

    FlightDeckAvionics&MissionAvionicscombinetoalmost$300mofMROforecastfortankersfor20152024.

    KC46becomesmoresignificantasdeliveriesstartin2017Tanker MRO Spend by Category

    Airframe Maintenance

    32%

    Engine Maintenance

    14%

    Field Maintenance

    44%

    Component Maintenance

    10%

    FiguresinUS$millions

    AircraftFamilyAirframeMaintenance

    EngineMaintenance

    FieldMaintenance

    ComponentMaintenance

    KC135/C135 4,382 2,073 5,309 1,339

    KC10 1,212 288 949 260

    KC46/767 264 150 949 159

    707 150 65 288 86

    A330 96 69 580 78

    C130 61 48 253 53

    A310 9 6 62 8

    S2 5 2 62 22

    Totals 6,179 2,702 8,453 2,005

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    Trainer/LightAttackFleetForecast

    T6,Tucano,T38continueasmainstaysoftrainerfleets.

    Hawk/T45combinetobethemostnumerousLightFighter

    Trainernumberslargelyunscathedbysequestration.

    Texansmaintainhighestshareofinservicefleet

    Trainer/LightAttackInServiceFleet

    Year Totals

    2015 5984

    2016 5969

    2017 5937

    2018 5918

    2019 5906

    2020 5911

    2021 5924

    2022 5935

    2023 5939

    2024 5943

    Trainer/Light Attack Fleet Composition

    T615%

    TUCANO9%

    T389%

    PC77%

    HAWK7%

    K85%

    F55%

    PC94%

    Other29%

    T43%

    T453%

    ALPHAJET4%

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    Trainer/LightAttackMROForecast

    AsiaPacificshowslargest$$increaseduringthedecade,withMiddleEastshowinglargest%increase.

    Europeandemanddropsbymorethananyotherregionduringsameperiod,forecastatover$70mdecline.

    Trainer/LightAttackMROrequirementstonear$32Bfordecade

    Trainer/Light Attack MRO Spend by Region 2015-2024 (US$millions)

    825

    2,573

    2,663

    2,776

    4,879

    8,764

    10,292

    0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

    Unknown

    MiddleEast

    LatinAmerica

    Africa

    Europe

    AsiaPacific

    NorthAmerica

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    TransportAircraftMRORequirements

    HeavyTransportMROrequirementsfocusesonAirframeMaintenance

    Heavy Transports MRO Spend by Expense Category

    ENGINEMAINTENANCE

    18%

    AIRFRAMEMAINTENANCE

    38%

    FIELDMAINTENANCE28%

    COMPONENTMAINTENANCE

    16%

    HeavyTransportMROrequirementfordecadeprojectedat$22billion.

    Airframeeventslargestexpenseoverdecade,followedbyfieldmaintenance.

    Enginemaintenancerequirementsat$3.95B20152024

    USvastmajorityofallrequirementsduetoC17,C5fleets

    Heavy Transports MRO Spend by Expense Category

    ENGINEMAINTENANCE

    18%

    AIRFRAMEMAINTENANCE

    38%

    FIELDMAINTENANCE28%

    COMPONENTMAINTENANCE

    16%

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    TransportAircraftMROForecast

    Fieldmaintenancelargestrequirementscategoryfordecadeatanestimated$42.3B.

    Airframeeventstohit$8.3Bforthedecade,engineevents$7.8B.

    Flightdeck/MissionAvionics,mods/upgrades/maintenance,forecastrequirementsof$1.65B.

    Light/MediumTransportMROForecastat$66Bfor20152024

    Light/Medium Transport MRO Spend by Expense Category 2015-2024

    AIRFRAMEMAINTENANCE

    13%

    FIELDMAINTENANCE63%

    COMPONENTMAINTENANCE

    12%

    ENGINEMAINTENANCE

    12%

    Fieldmaintenancelargestrequirementscategoryfordecadeatanestimated$42.3B.

    Airframeeventstohit$8.3Bforthedecade,engineevents$7.8B.

    Flightdeck/MissionAvionics,mods/upgrades/maintenance,forecastrequirementsof$1.65B.

    Light/Medium Transport MRO Spend by Expense Category 2015-2024

    AIRFRAMEMAINTENANCE

    13%

    FIELDMAINTENANCE63%

    COMPONENTMAINTENANCE

    12%

    ENGINEMAINTENANCE

    12%

  • 2014MilitaryFleetForecast

    Copyright2014,AviationWeek

    Thankyouforyourattendancetoday.

    PleasestopbyatBooth3001forfurtherinformation

    All photos by Nigel Howarth