Finding Disruption

Michael Jackson

Disruption is not Incremental Innovation

Disruption is not necessarily even technical innovation

Historically, disruptive technologies involve no new technologies; rather they consist of components

built around proven technologies put together in a novel product architecture that offers the customer

a set of attributes never before available.

C. Christensen

“…Skype has no chance of becoming the new global phone network as its creators hope, because it is largely unnecessary …. “

Lee Gomes. Wall Street Journal2003

“…Skype has no chance of becoming the new global phone network as its creators hope, because it is largely unnecessary …. “

“Free music. Now that was a great Internet deal. But free phone calls don't have quite the same appeal.”

Lee Gomes. Wall Street Journal2003

What do Skype do that the ‘emerging telecoms’ community never did ?

Skype removed barriers tocommunications

35 percent of Skype users say they use Skype in a business setting.

20 percent use Skype video for business purposes.

70 percent say they use Skype for business while traveling.

Skype for Business

“I really don’t see what is so smart about that.“

Comment on the blog post of Alex Saunders that covered the launch of Skype for Business

Skype for Business

• The price of network equipment, billing and customer support systems trended to affordable

• Small MVNO operators moved fast

• In the end, the service was identical to the consumer, just lower cost

• This isn’t disruptive.

What enabled MVNO and Indirect Access ?

Lets look at underlying human psychological needs

• Communications is about helping people talk to each other.

• See each other.

• Feel each other.

• Emotionally connect with each other

• We reveal our friends, our contacts and our thoughts

Lets look at underlying human psychological needs

And not only the incumbentslaugh at us

“As any kind of wider social networking tool Facebook is

largely useless.

Halvejs

“As any kind of wider social networking tool Facebook is

largely useless.

It doesn’t let you blog.

“The first guy to buy a fax was an optimist”

METCALFE’S LAW

METCALFE’S LAW

valueincreaseswith n2

METCALFE’S LAW

Size of Network (n)

Potential Value of Networkincreases with n2

METCALFE’S LAW

The new networks are created by the users

Marketplaces

eBayImmoscout

Amazon

CommunicationNetworksFacebook

TwitterSkype

LinkedIn

GamesReal time games

Social gamingLocation based

PlatformsApple iPhone

Facebook

Managing time, space, relevance and placement of a huge variety of communications

Marketplaces

eBayImmoscout

Amazon

NetworksFacebook

TwitterSkype

LinkedIn

PlatformsApple iPhone

Facebook

GamesReal Time Games

Social gamingLocation Based

So, where is the disruption ?

In all of this, I haven’t mentioned the folk who say they ‘own’ the customer. The people with the largest networks in the world. The folk who have used market

dominance and commercial pressures to limit choice for the last 100 years. The people who believe that triple play is innovation. The people who control

walled gardens. The people who tell the governments that they set the agenda for communications. The people who have

the billing relationships with every person on the planet. The people who have the most information about where and what

lots of people do with their lives

Rant :

At a conference on Emerging Telecommunications, there is virtually no

participation by a network operator

The biggest disruptive driver that we see

is that the telecoms operators have been

displaced to their rightful place

in the eco-system.

The biggest disruptive driver that we see

is that the telecoms operators have been

displaced to their rightful place

in the eco-system.

Solely as the providers of the tubes that make up the Internet.

Now that the operators are irrelevant, therest of us can get on with removing theremaining barriers to communication

Thank you.