METODE ILMIAH

Soemarno 2014

SAINS

Sains (dari bahasa Latin scientia, berarti “pengetahuan") merupakan suatu “enterprise” yang membangun dan

mengorganisir pengetahuan dalam bentuk eksplanasi dan prediksi yang dapat diuji mengenai “jagad raya”.

In an older and closely related meaning (found, for example, in Aristotle), "science" refers to the body of reliable knowledge

itself, of the type that can be logically and rationally explained.

In the early modern era the words "science" and "philosophy" were sometimes used interchangeably in the English language.

Diunduh dari: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Science ….. 22/9/2012

FILSAFAT SAINSFilsafat Sains membahas tentang asumsi-asumsi, landasan,

metode-metode, dan implikasi dari sains.

Filsafat Sains juga berhubungan dengan penggunaan dan manfaat sains dan kadang-kadang overlaping dengan

metafisik dan epistemologi dengan jalan mengeksplorasi apakah hasil-hasil ilmiah merupakan kajian tentang

kebenaran.

In addition to these central problems of science as a whole, many philosophers of science also consider problems that apply to particular sciences (e.g. philosophy of biology or philosophy

of physics).

Diunduh dari: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Philosophy_of_science ….. 22/9/2012

PENJELASAN ILMIAH

In addition to providing predictions about future events, we often take scientific theories to offer explanations for those that occur regularly or have already occurred. Philosophers have investigated the criteria by which a scientific theory can be said to have successfully explained a

phenomenon, as well as what gives a scientific theory explanatory power.

One early and influential theory of scientific explanation was put forward by Carl G. Hempel and Paul Oppenheim in 1948. Their

Deductive-Nomological (D-N) model of explanation says that a scientific explanation succeeds by subsuming a phenomenon under a general law.

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PENJELASAN = EXPLANATION

“PENJELASAN = EKSPLANASI” An explanation is a set of statements constructed to describe a set of facts which clarifies the

causes, context, and consequences of those facts.This description may establish rules or laws, and may clarify the

existing ones in relation to any objects, or phenomena examined. The components of an explanation can be implicit, and be interwoven

with one another.An explanation is often underpinned by an understanding that is represented by different media such as music, text, and graphics.

Thus, an explanation is subjected to interpretation, and discussion.In scientific research, explanation is one of the purposes of research,

e.g., exploration and description. Explanation is a way to uncover new knowledge, and to report relationships among different aspects of studied phenomena. Explanations have varied explanatory power.

Diunduh dari: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Explanation ….. 22/9/2012

INQUIRY

“Inquiry” merupakan suatu proses yang bertujuan untuk menghimpun pengetahuan,

menjawab keraguan, atau menyelesaikan permasalahan.

A theory of inquiry is an account of the various types of inquiry and a treatment of the ways that

each type of inquiry achieves its aim.

Diunduh dari: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inquiry ….. 22/9/2012

The Process of Inquiry and Research.

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esearch.html

The Process of Inquiry

and Research.

Diunduh dari:

http://www.accessola.com/action/positions/info_studies/html/re

search.html

METODE ILMIAH

Metode ilmiah adalah teknik-teknik untuk investigasi fenomena dan mendapatkan pengetahuan baru, untuk

mengoreksi dan mengintegrasikan pengetahuan-pengetahuan yang telah ada.

It is based on gathering observable, empirical and measurable evidence subject to specific principles of reasoning, the collection of data through observation and experimentation, and the formulation and testing

of hypotheses.

Meskipun prosedur-prosedur yang lazim digunakan sangat beragam, namun ada sifat-sifat khusus yang membedakan “metode ilmiah”

demngan metode non-ilmiah.

Peneliti-peneliti ilmiah mengusulkan “hypothesis” sebagai “penjelasan sementara” atas fenomena yang dikaji, dan merancang studi-studi

eksperimental untuk menguji hipotesis tersebut. Tahapan-tahapan ini harus dapat diulangi untuk menguji hasil-

hasilnya.

Theories that encompass wider domains of inquiry may bind many hypotheses together in a coherent structure.

This in turn may assist in the formation of new hypotheses, as well as in placing groups of hypotheses into a broader context of understanding.

METODE ILMIAH

Among other facets shared by the various fields of inquiry is the conviction that the process must be objective to reduce a biased

interpretation of the results.

Another basic expectation is to document, archive and share all data and methodology so it is available for careful scrutiny by other

scientists, thereby allowing other researchers the opportunity to verify results by attempting to reproduce them.

This practice, called "full disclosure", also allows statistical measures of the reliability of these data to be established.

METODE ILMIAH

APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ?

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EMPIRIKScience is based purely around observation and measurement, and the vast majority

of research involves some type of practical experimentation.

Cutting a long story short, Plato believed that all knowledge could be reasoned; Aristotle that knowledge relied upon empirical observation and measurement.

This does bring up one interesting anomaly. Strictly speaking, the great physicists, such as Einstein and Stephen Hawking, are not scientists. They generate sweeping and elegant theories and mathematical models to describe the universe and the very nature

of time, but measure nothing.

In reality, they are mathematicians, occupying their own particular niche, and they should properly be referred to as theoreticians.

Still, they are still commonly referred to as scientists and do touch upon the scientific method in that any theory they have can be destroyed by a single scrap of empirical

evidence.

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BERTUMPU PADA DATAThe scientific method uses some type of measurement to analyze results, feeding these findings

back into theories of what we know about the world. There are two major ways of obtaining data, through measurement and observation. These are generally referred to as quantitative and

qualitative measurements.Quantitative measurements are generally associated with what are known as ‘hard' sciences, such as physics, chemistry and astronomy. They can be gained through experimentation or

through observation.

For Example:At the end of the experiment, 50% of the bacteria in the sample treated with penicillin were left alive.The experiment showed that the moon is 384403 km away from the earth.The pH of the solution was 7.1

Read more: http://www.experiment-resources.com/what-is-the-scientific-method.html#ixzz27DWjH3q5

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The Scientific Method is Intellectual and Visionary

Science requires vision, and the ability to observe the implications of results. Collecting data is part

of the process, and it also needs to be analyzed and interpreted.

However, the visionary part of science lies in relating the findings back into the real world.

Even pure sciences, which are studied for their own sake rather than any practical application,

are visionary and have wider goals.The process of relating findings to the real world

is known as induction, or inductive reasoning, and is a way of relating the findings to the

universe around us.

Read more: http://www.experiment-resources.com/what-is-the-scientific-method.html#ixzz27DbMG5r0

APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ?

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Science Uses Experiments to Test Predictions

This process of induction and generalization allows scientists to make predictions about how they think that something should behave, and design an experiment to test

it.This experiment does not always mean setting up rows of test tubes in the lab or

designing surveys. It can also mean taking measurements and observing the natural world.

Wegener's ideas, whilst denigrated by many scientists, aroused the interest of a few. They began to go out and look for other evidence that the continents moved around

the Earth.From Wegener's initial idea of continents floating through the ocean floor, scientists now understand, through a process of prediction and measurement, the process of

plate tectonics.The exact processes driving the creation of new crust and the subduction of others are

still not fully understood but, almost 100 years after Wegener's idea, scientists still build upon his initial work.

APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ?

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Systematic and MethodicalScientists are very conservative in how they approach results and they are naturally

very skeptical.It takes more than one experiment to change the way that they think, however loud

the headlines, and any results must be retested and repeated until a solid body of evidence is built up. This process ensures that researchers do not make mistakes or

purposefully manipulate evidence.In Wegener's case, his ideas were not accepted until after his death, when the amount

of evidence supporting continental drift became irrefutable.This process of changing the current theories, called a paradigm shift, is an integral

part of the scientific method. Most groundbreaking research, such as Einstein's Relativity or Mendel's Genetics, causes a titanic shift in the prevailing scientific

thought.

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The scientific method has evolved, over many centuries, to ensure that scientists make

meaningful discoveries, founded upon logic and reason

rather than emotion.The exact process varies

between scientific disciplines, but they all follow the above

principle of observe - predict - test - generalize.

APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ?

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Metode ilmiah merupakan suatu prosedur (urutan langkah) yang harus dilakukan untuk melakukan suatu proyek ilmiah

(science project).

Secara umum metode ilmiah meliputi langkah-langkah berikut:

Observasi AwalMengidentifikasi Masalah

Merumuskan atau Menyatakan HipotesisMelakukan Eksperimen

Menyimpulkan Hasil Eksperimen

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Setelah topik yang akan diteliti secara ilmiah ditentukan, maka langkah pertama untuk melakukan riset ilmiah adalah melakukan

observasi awal untuk mengumpulkan informasi tentang segala sesuatu yang berhubungan dengan topik tersebut melalui

pengalaman, berbagai sumber ilmu pengetahuan, berkonsultasi dengan ahli yang sesuai.

Gunakan semua referensi: buku, jurnal, majalah, koran, internet, interview, dll.

Kumpulkan informasi dari ahli: instruktur, peneliti, insinyur, dll.

Lakukan eksplorasi lain yang berhubungan dengan topik.

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IDENTIFIKASI MASALAH

Permasalahan merupakan pertanyaan ilmiah yang harus dijawab. Permasalahan dinyatakan dalam pertanyaan terbuka yaitu pertanyaan

dengan jawaban berupa suatu pernyataan, bukan jawaban ya atau tidak.

Contoh: Bagaimana cara menyimpan energi surya di rumah?

Batasi permasalahan seperlunya agar tidak terlalu luas.

Pilih permasalahan yang penting dan menarik untuk diteliti.

Pilih permasalahan yang dapat diselesaikan secara eksperimen.

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MERUMUSKAN HIPOTESIS

Hipotesis merupakan suatu ide atau dugaan sementara tentang penyelesaian masalah yang diajukan dalam proyek ilmiah.

Hipotesis dirumuskan atau dinyatakan sebelum penelitian yang seksama atas topik proyek ilmiah dilakukan, karenanya kebenaran

hipotesis ini perlu diuji lebih lanjut melalui penelitian yang seksama.

Hal yang perlu diingat, jika menurut hasil pengujian ternyata hipotesis tidak benar bukan berarti penelitian yang dilakukan salah.

Gunakan pengalaman atau pengamatan lalu sebagai dasar hipotesisRumuskan hipotesis sebelum memulai proyek eksperimen

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Melaksanakan EksperimenEksperimen dirancang dan dilakukan untuk menguji hipotesis yang

diajukan. Ada tiga jenis variabel yang perlu diperhatikan pada eksperimen:

variabel bebas, variabel terikat, dan variabel kontrol.Varibel bebas merupakan variabel yang dapat diubah secara bebas. Variabel terikat adalah variabel yang diteliti, yang perubahannya bergantung pada variabel bebas. Variabel kontrol adalah variabel

yang selama eksperimen dipertahankan tetap. 1. Usahakan hanya satu variabel bebas selama eksperimen.2. Pertahankan kondisi yang tetap pada variabel-variabel yang

diasumsikan konstan.3. Lakukan eksperimen berulang kali untuk memvariasi hasil.4. Catat hasil eksperimen secara lengkap dan seksama.

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Menyimpulkan Hasil EksperimenKesimpulan merupakan ringkasan hasil proyek eksperimen dan

pernyataan bagaimana hubungan antara hasil eksperimen dengan hipotesis. Alasan-alasan untuk hasil eksperimen yang bertentangan

dengan hipotesis termasuk di dalamnya. Jika dapat dilakukan, kesimpulan dapat diakhiri dengan memberikan pemikiran untuk

penelitian lebih lanjut.Jika hasil eksperimen tidak sesuai dengan hipotesis:

1. Jangan diubah hipotesisnya2. Jangan diabaikan hasil eksperimen3. Berikan alasan yang masuk akal mengapa tidak sesuai4. Berikan cara-cara yang mungkin dilakukan selanjutnya untuk

menemukan penyebab ketidaksesuaian5. Bila cukup waktu lakukan eksperimen sekali lagi atau susun ulang

eksperimen.

APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ?

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KARAKTERISTIK METODE ILMIAH :

1. Karya Ilmiah Harus Berdasarkan FaktaMenulis karya ilmiah harus berdasarkan fakta, bukan hasil imajinasi atau semacammnya . “Fakta” biasanya berupa data empiris yang dapat diukur dan dianalisis lebih lanjut.

2. Karya Ilmiah Harus Berdasarkan Pertimbangan Objektif . Pertimbangan objektif didasarkan pada pertimbangan apa adanya bukan bersifat subyektif, bebas dari prasangka dan kira-kira.

APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ?

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KARAKTERISTIK METODE ILMIAH :

3. Karya Ilmiah Harus Menggunakan Asas AnalisisMaksudnya, karya ilmiah itu harus dapat dianalisis (diuraikan,

dibandingkan, diinterpretasikan). yang artinya karya ilmiah harus dapat menggambarkan karakteristik , fungsi dan kaitan pmasalahan

satu dg lainnya.

4. Karya Ilmiah Harus Bersifat Kuantitatif – KualitatifPendekatan ilmiah berbeda dengan pendekatan alamiah.

Pendekatan ilmiah sifatnya kuantitatif , sedangkan pendekatan alamiah biasanya bersifat kualitatif.

APAKAH METODE ILMIAH ?

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KARAKTERISTIK METODE ILMIAH :

5. Karya Ilmiah Menggunakan Logika Deduktif – Hipotetik

Logika deduktif adalah penalaran yang bertitik tolak dari hal-hal yang sifatnya umum dan sudah memiliki

kebenaran yang pasti baik dari hasil penelitian para pakar atau dari yang lainnya.

Kebenaran hipotesis harus dibuktikan secara empiris melalui penelitian lapangan maka disebut bahwa karya ilmiah

tersebut sesuai logika deduktif-hipotetik

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KARAKTERISTIK METODE ILMIAH :

6. Karya Ilmiah Harus Menggunakan Logika Induktif Generalisasi

Kebenaran hipotesis bersifat rasional, oleh karenanya bersifat sementara . Untuk memperoleh kebenaran ilmiah masih harus

dibuktikan dengan data empiris hasil penelitian .

Kesimpulan dari data empiris bersifat generalisasi, sedangkan kesesuaian data empiris dengan pemikiran rasional hipotesis disebut

asas korespondensi. Kesimpulan yang bersifat generalisasi dari data empiris disebut logika

induktif yang kebenrannya bersifat probabilistik.

There are multiple ways of outlining the basic method shared by all of the fields of scientific inquiry.

The following examples are typical classifications of the most important components of the method on which

there is very wide agreement in the scientific community and among philosophers of science, each of which are

subject only to marginal disagreements about a few very specific aspects.

UNSUR-UNSUR METODE ILMIAH

Observation. A constant feature of scientific inquiry, observation includes both unconditioned observations (prior to any theory) as well as the observation of the experiment and its results.

Description. Information derived from experiments must be reliable, i.e., replicable (repeatable), as well as valid (relevant to the inquiry).

Prediction. Information must be valid for observations past, present, and future of given phenomena, i.e., purported "one shot" phenomena do not give rise to the capability to predict, nor to the ability to repeat an experiment.

METODE ILMIAH MELIBATKAN:

Control. Actively and fairly sampling the range of possible occurrences, whenever possible and proper, as opposed to the passive acceptance of opportunistic data, is the best way to control or counterbalance the risk of empirical bias.

Identification of causes. Identification of the causes of a particular phenomenon to the best achievable extent. For cause-and-effect relationship to be established, the following must be established:

Time-order relationship. The hypothesized causes must precede the observed effects in time.

Covariation of events. The hypothesized causes must correlate with observed effects. However, correlations between events or variables are not necessarily indicative of causation.

METODE ILMIAH MELIBATKAN:

This is a gradual process that requires repeated experiments by multiple researchers who must be able to replicate results in order to

corroborate them.:

Semua hipotesis dan teori pada hakekatnya dapat ditolak (tidak terbukti).

Thus, there is a point at which there might be a consensus about a particular hypothesis or theory, yet it must in principle remain

tentative. As a body of knowledge grows and a particular hypothesis or theory repeatedly brings predictable results, confidence in the hypothesis or

theory increases.

Eliminasi alternatif yang layak

Another simplified model sometimes utilized to summarize scientific method is the "operational":

The essential elements of a scientific method are operations, observations, models, and a utility function for evaluating models.

Operation - Some action done to the system being investigated Observation - What happens when the operation is done to the system Model - A fact, hypothesis, theory, or the phenomenon itself at a certain moment Utility Function - A measure of the usefulness of the model to explain, predict, and control, and of the cost of use of it

UNSUR-UNSUR METODE ILMIAH

One of the elements of any scientific utility function is the refutability of the model.

Another is its simplicity, on the Principle of Parsimony also known as Occam's Razor.

The following is a more thorough description of the method.

This set of methodological elements and organization of procedures will in general tend to be more characteristic of natural sciences and experimental

psychology than of disciplines commonly categorized as social sciences.

Among the latter, methods of verification and testing of hypotheses may involve less stringent mathematical and statistical interpretations of these

elements within the respective disciplines. Nonetheless the cycle of hypothesis, verification and formulation of new hypotheses will tend to resemble the basic

cycle described below.

UNSUR-UNSUR METODE ILMIAH

The essential elements of a scientific method are iterations, recursions, interleavings, and orderings of the following:

1. Characterizations (Kuantifikasi, Observasi dan Pengukuran)

2. Hypotheses (Penjelasan teoritis, hipotetis atas observasi dan pengukuran)

3. Predictions (penalaran yang mencakup deduksi logis dari hipoptesis dan teori)

4. Experiments (Menguji semua hal di atas)

UNSUR-UNSUR METODE ILMIAH

Imre Lakatos and Thomas Kuhn had done extensive work on the "theory laden" character of observation.

Kuhn (1961) maintained that the scientist generally has a theory in mind before designing and undertaking experiments so as to make empirical

observations, and that the "route from theory to measurement can almost never be traveled backward".

This perspective implies that the way in which theory is tested is dictated by the nature of the theory itself, which led Kuhn (1961) to argue that "once it has been adopted by a profession ... no theory is

recognized to be testable by any quantitative tests that it has not already passed".

UNSUR-UNSUR METODE ILMIAH

Each element of the scientific method is subject to peer review for possible mistakes.

These activities do not describe all that scientists do (see below) but apply mostly to experimental sciences (e.g., physics,

chemistry).

The elements above are often taught in the educational system.

UNSUR-UNSUR METODE ILMIAH

TAHAPAN METODE ILMIAHThe steps of the scientific method are to:

1. Ask a Question - observation and description of a phenomenon or phenomena. Ask a question you are trying to answer

2. Do Background Research - some research on how you think the answer to your question may be

3. Construct a Hypothesis - formulate a hypothesis to explain the phenomena.

4. Test Your Hypothesis by Doing an Experiment - performance of experiemental tests of the predictions by several independent experimenters and properly performed experiments.

5. Analyze Your Data and Draw a Conclusion - what happened in your experiment? Did it go with or against your hypothesis? What could you do different next time?

6. Communicate your results

DIUNDUH DARI: http://chem105.blogspot.com/2011/01/scientific-method-activity-1-11211.html

... 21/9/2012

METODE ILMIAH depends upon increasingly more sophisticated characterizations of subjects of the investigation.

(The subjects can also be called unsolved problems or the unknowns, MASALAH PENELITIAN).

For example, Benjamin Franklin correctly characterized St. Elmo's fire as electrical in nature, but it has taken a long

series of experiments and theory to establish this. While seeking the pertinent properties of the subjects, this

careful thought may also entail some definitions and observations; the observations often demand careful

measurements and/or counting.

KARAKTERISASI

The systematic, careful collection of measurements or counts of relevant quantities is often the critical difference between pseudo-sciences, such as

alchemy, and a science, such as chemistry or biology.

Scientific measurements taken are usually tabulated, graphed, or mapped, and statistical manipulations, such as correlation and regression, performed

on them.

The measurements might be made in a controlled setting, such as a laboratory, or made on more or less inaccessible or unmanipulatable objects

such as stars or human populations.

The measurements often require specialized scientific instruments such as thermometers, spectroscopes, or voltmeters, and the progress of a scientific

field is usually intimately tied to their invention and development.

KARAKTERISASI

Measurements in scientific work are also usually accompanied by estimates of their uncertainty.

The uncertainty is often estimated by making repeated measurements of the desired quantity.

Uncertainties may also be calculated by consideration of the uncertainties of the individual underlying quantities that are used.

Counts of things, such as the number of people in a nation at a particular time, may also have an uncertainty due to limitations of the method used.

Counts may only represent a sample of desired quantities, with an uncertainty that depends upon the sampling method used and the number of

samples taken.

KETIDAK-PASTIAN

Measurements demand the use of operational definitions of relevant quantities; DEFINISI OPERASIONAL.

That is, a scientific quantity is described or defined by how it is measured, as opposed to some more vague, inexact or

"idealized" definition.

For example, electrical current, measured in amperes, may be operationally defined in terms of the mass of silver deposited in a certain time on an electrode in an electrochemical device that

is described in some detail.

DEFINISI

The operational definition of a thing often relies on comparisons with standards:

The operational definition of "mass" ultimately relies on the use of an artifact, such as a certain kilogram of platinum-iridium kept

in a laboratory in France.

DEFINISI OPERASIONAL

The scientific definition of a term sometimes differs substantially from their natural language usage.

For example, mass and weight overlap in meaning in common discourse, but have distinct meanings in

mechanics.

Scientific quantities are often characterized by their units of measure which can later be described in terms of

conventional physical units when communicating the work.

KUANTITI ILMIAH

New theories sometimes arise upon realizing that certain terms had not previously been sufficiently clearly defined.

For example, Albert Einstein's first paper on relativity begins by defining simultaneity and the means for

determining length.

These ideas were skipped over by Isaac Newton with, "I do not define time, space, place and motion, as being well known

to all."

Einstein's paper then demonstrates that they (viz., absolute time and length independent of motion) were

approximations.

RELATIVITAS

Hypothesis

Prof. Dr. Md. Ghulam Murtaza Khulna University

Khulna, Bangladesh

23 February 2012

Definisi Hipotesis

The word hypothesis is derived form the Greek words: “hypo” means under

“tithemi” means place

Under known facts of the problem to explain relationship between these1. ........ is a statement subject to verification2. ......... a guess but experienced guess based on some facts 3. …....is a hunch, assumption, suspicion, assertion or an idea about a

phenomena, relationship, or situation, the reality of truth of which one do not know

A researcher calls these assumptions, assertions, statements, or hunches hypotheses and they become the basis of an inquiry.

In most cases, the hypothesis will be based upon either previous studies or the researcher’s own or someone else’s observations

Hypothesis is a conjectural statement of relationship between two or more variable.

Hypothesis is proposition, condition or principle which is assumed, perhaps without belief, in order to draw its logical consequences and by this method to test its accord with facts which are known or may be determined (Webster’s New International Dictionary of English).

A tentative statement about something, the validity of which is usually unknown (Black, James A & Dean J Champion, Method and Issues in Social Research, New York: John Wiley & Sons, Inc, 1976)

Hypothesis is proposition that is stated is a testable form and that predicts a particular relationship between two or more variable. In other words, id we think that a relationship exists, we first state it is hypothesis and then test hypothesis in the field (Baily, Kenneth D, Methods of Social Research, 3rd edition, New York: The Free Press, 1978)

Definisi Hipotesis

• A hypothesis is written in such a way that it can be proven or disproven by valid and reliable data – in order to obtain these data that we perform our study (Grinnell, Richard, Jr. Social Work Research and Evaluation, 3rd edition, Itasca, Illinois, F.E. Peacock Publishers, 1988)

• A hypothesis may be defined as a tentative theory or supposition set up and adopted provisionally as a basis of explaining certain facts or relationships and as a guide in the further investigation of other facts or relationships (Crisp, Richard D, Marketing Research, New York: McGraw Hill Book Co., 1957 )

Definisi Hipotesis

Karakteristik Hipotesis

1. Proposisi yang bersifat tentatif

2. Validitas tidak diketahui

3. Hubungan spesifik antara dua atau lebih variabel.

Fungsi Hipotesis

• Bringing clarity to the research problem

• Fungsi-fungsi Hipotesis:1.Menyediakan / menjadi fokus riset2.Memperjelas aspek-aspek khusus dari masalah

riset yang akan diteliti3.Data apa yang harus dikumpulkan dan data apa

yang tidak dikumpulkan4.Mendukung obyektivitas riset5.Memformulasi teori6.Memungkinkan untuk menyimpulkan “apa yang

benar” atau “apa yang salah”

Karakteristik Hipotesis

• Simple, specific, and contextually clear• Capable of verification• Related to the existing body of

knowledge• Operationalisable

Tiga tipe hipotesis: Hipotesis kerja = Working hypothesis Hipoptesis nol = Null hypothesis Hipotesis alternatif = Alternate hypothesis

Hipotesis KerjaThe working or trail hypothesis is provisionally adopted to explain the relationship between some observed facts for guiding a researcher in the investigation of a problem. A Statement constitutes a trail or working hypothesis (which) is to be tested and conformed, modifies or even abandoned as the investigation proceeds.

Tipologi Hipotesis

Hipotesis NolA null hypothesis is formulated against the working hypothesis; opposes the statement of the working hypothesis ....it is contrary to the positive statement made in the working hypothesis; formulated to disprove the contrary of a working hypothesisWhen a researcher rejects a null hypothesis, he/she actually proves a working hypothesis

In statistics, to mean a null hypothesis usually Ho is used. For example,

Ho Q = O

where Q is the property of the population under investigation O is hypothetical

Tipologi Hipotesis

Tipologi Hipotesis

Hipothesis AlternatifAn alternate hypothesis is formulated when a researcher totally rejects null hypothesis

He/she develops such a hypothesis with adequate reasons

The notion used to mean alternate hypothesis is H1 Q>O

i.e., Q is greater than O

Contoh Hipotesis

HIPOTESIS KERJA: Population influences the number of bank branches in a town

HIPOTESIS NOL (Ho): Population do not have any influence on the number of bank branches in a town.

• HIPOTESIS ALTERNATIF (H1): Population has significant effect on the number of bank branches in a town. A researcher formulates this hypothesis only after rejecting the null hypothesis.

A hypothesis is a suggested explanation of a phenomenon, or alternately a reasoned proposal suggesting a possible

correlation between or among a set of phenomena.

Normally hypotheses have the form of a mathematical model. Sometimes, but not always, they can also be formulated as

existential statements, stating that some particular instance of the phenomenon being studied has some characteristic and

causal explanations, which have the general form of universal statements, stating that every instance of the

phenomenon has a particular characteristic.

PERKEMBANGAN HIPOTESIS

Scientists are free to use whatever resources they have — their own creativity, ideas from other fields, induction, Bayesian inference, and so on — to imagine possible explanations for a phenomenon under study.

Charles Sanders Peirce, borrowing a page from Aristotle (Prior Analytics, 2.25) described the incipient stages of inquiry,

instigated by the "irritation of doubt" to venture a plausible guess, as abductive reasoning.

The history of science is filled with stories of scientists claiming a "flash of inspiration", or a hunch, which then motivated them to look for

evidence to support or refute their idea. Michael Polanyi made such creativity the centrepiece of his discussion

of methodology.

PERKEMBANGAN HIPOTESIS

Karl Popper, following others, developing and inverting the views of the Austrian logical positivists, has argued

that a hypothesis must be falsifiable, and that a proposition or theory cannot be called scientific if it does

not admit the possibility of being shown false.

It must at least in principle be possible to make an observation that would show the proposition to be false,

even if that observation had not yet been made.

PERKEMBANGAN HIPOTESIS

William Glen observes thatthe success of a hypothesis, or its service to science, lies not simply in its perceived "truth", or power to displace, subsume or reduce a

predecessor idea, but perhaps more in its ability to stimulate the research that will illuminate … bald suppositions and areas of

vagueness.

In general scientists tend to look for theories that are "elegant" or "beautiful".

In contrast to the usual English use of these terms, they here refer to a theory in accordance with the known facts, which is

nevertheless relatively simple and easy to handle. Occam's Razor serves as a rule of thumb for making these

determinations.

PERKEMBANGAN HIPOTESIS

Hipotesis yang bagus dapat digunakan untuk prediksi, dengan jalan penalaran, termasuk penalaran deduktif.

It might predict the outcome of an experiment in a laboratory setting or the observation of a phenomenon

in nature.

The prediction can also be statistical and only talk about probabilities.

PREDIKSI DARI HIPOTESIS

It is essential that the outcome be currently unknown.

Only in this case does the eventuation increase the probability that the hypothesis be true.

If the outcome is already known, it's called a consequence and should have already been considered while formulating the hypothesis.

If the predictions are not accessible by observation or experience, the hypothesis is not yet useful for the method, and must wait for others

who might come afterward, and perhaps rekindle its line of reasoning.

For example, a new technology or theory might make the necessary experiments feasible.

PERKEMBANGAN HIPOTESIS

Einstein's prediction (1907): Light bends in a gravitational field

Einstein's theory of General Relativity makes several specific predictions about the observable structure of space-time, such as a prediction that light bends in a gravitational field and that the amount of bending depends in a precise way on the strength

of that gravitational field.

Arthur Eddington's observations made during a 1919 solar eclipse supported General Relativity rather than

Newtonian gravitation.

TEORI RELATIVITAS

Once predictions are made, they can be tested by experiments. If test results contradict predictions, then the hypotheses are called into question and explanations may be sought. Sometimes experiments are

conducted incorrectly and are at fault. If the results confirm the predictions, then the hypotheses are considered likely to be correct but

might still be wrong and are subject to further testing.

Depending on the predictions, the experiments can have different shapes. It could be a classical experiment in a laboratory setting, a double-blind study or an archaeological excavation. Even taking a

plane from New York to Paris is an experiment which tests the aerodynamical hypotheses used for constructing the plane.

EKSPERIMEN

Scientists assume an attitude of openness and accountability on the part of those conducting an experiment.

Detailed record keeping is essential, to aid in recording and reporting on the experimental results, and providing evidence

of the effectiveness and integrity of the procedure. They will also assist in reproducing the experimental results.

This tradition can be seen in the work of Hipparchus (190 BCE - 120 BCE), when determining a value for the precession of the

Earth over 2100 years ago, and 1000 years before Al-Batani.

EKSPERIMEN

The essence of all good science lies in a process called "the scientific method." The scientific method uses objective experimentation to predict, verify, or refute, an assertion made by a theory. Based on the results of the experiment(s), the theory is modified. The

process of predict, verify or refute is repeated, continually testing and modifying the theory until the theory fits all possible experimental observations. Then the theory is

considered a scientific law.

EKSPERIMEN

The diagram above shows a simplified flow chart of the

scientific method.

One can "enter" the flow chart at any point in the cycle.

Generally however, one starts with a theory, a prediction, or an

observation.

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EKSPERIMEN

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A Theory is an explanation for natural events that is based on a large number of observations.

Its important to realize that theories EXPLAIN what we observe.

For instance, the Germ Theory explains why we get sick and why we get infections, in short it uses observation of viruses and bacteria as well as data from those who get ill to create a theory

on what causes the illness.

TEORI

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And so you say, isn't that an absolute fact. Duh?

We know there are germs and they make us sick. To a degree, some of what we know now (with increased technology) is more refined than what

it was 100 years ago. Did you know that some doctors were laughed at for washing their

hands..it was a ridiculous notion hundreds of years ago to believe that there were invisible things in the are that would make us sick.

Now, we accept it as common knowledge. However, the germ theory continues to be refined as we expand our knowledge on what actual components and parts of a bacteria or virus make us sick and why.

Theories are changeable and expandable, and most importantly, theories are FALSIFIABLE.

TEORI

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In order to be a valid scientific theory there must be some way that an observation or experiment could prove it to be false.

For example, Einstein's theory of Relativity made predictions about the results of experiments.

These experiments could have produced results that contradicted Einstein, so the theory was (and still is) falsifiable.

In contrast, the theory that ``the moon is populated by little green men who can read our minds and will hide whenever anyone on Earth looks for them, and will flee into deep space whenever a spacecraft comes near'' is not falsifiable: these green men are designed so that no one can ever see

them.

TEORI

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On the other hand, the theory that there are no little green men on the moon is scientific: you can disprove it by catching one.

Similar arguments apply to abominable snow-persons, UFOs and the Loch Ness Monster(s?).

The three important points of a scientific theory:1. Theories must explain a wide range of observations2. Theories must be falsifiable3. Theories can be changed if new evidence presents itself

TEORI

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Scientific Process

1. Observations2. Questions3. Hypothesis

(prediction)4. Experimentation5. Conclusions

PROSES ILMIAH

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Hypothesis - a testable statement, can be shown to be true or false by experimenting or observation.

Contoh Hipotesis yang Baik1. Plants will grow taller when given Miracle Grow.2. Girls will score higher on math tests than boys.3. Hermit crabs choose colorful shells over drab shells.

Contoh Hipotesis yang Buruk:1. Plants will grow better when given Miracle Grow.

2. Girls are smarter than boys.3. Hermit crabs like colorful shells.

HIPOPTESIS

Following the formation of a hypothesis, a research can then make a prediction.

A prediction is an expected outcome. If the statement is true, then you would expect a certain

result.

A hypothesis is then tested by experimentation - a planned procedure designed to test the hypothesis.

PREDIKSI

Testing and improvement

The scientific process is iterative. At any stage it is possible that some consideration will lead the scientist

to repeat an earlier part of the process.

Failure to develop an interesting hypothesis may lead a scientist to re-define the subject they are considering.

Failure of a hypothesis to produce interesting and testable predictions may lead to reconsideration of the hypothesis or of the definition of the

subject. Failure of the experiment to produce interesting results may lead the scientist to reconsidering the experimental method, the hypothesis or

the definition of the subject.

EVALUASI & ITERASI

Other scientists may start their own research and enter the process at any stage.

They might adopt the characterization and formulate their own hypothesis, or they might adopt the hypothesis and

deduce their own predictions.

Often the experiment is not done by the person who made the prediction and the characterization is based on

experiments done by someone else.

Published results of experiments can also serve as a hypothesis predicting their own reproducibility.

EVALUASI & ITERASI

Science is a social enterprise, and scientific work tends to be accepted by the community when it has been confirmed.

Crucially, experimental and theoretical results must be reproduced by others within the science community.

Researchers have given their lives for this vision; Georg Wilhelm Richmann was killed by lightning (1753) when attempting to replicate the 1752 kite-flying experiment of Benjamin Franklin.

To protect against bad science and fraudulent data, government research granting agencies like NSF and science journals like Nature and Science have a policy that researchers must archive their data and methods so other researchers can access it, test the data and methods and build on the research that has gone before.

KONFIRMASI

MODEL KLASIK

The classical model of scientific inquiry derives from Aristotle , who distinguished the forms of approximate

and exact reasoning, set out the threefold scheme of abductive, deductive, and inductive inference, and also

treated the compound forms such as reasoning by analogy.

MODEL-MODEL SCIENTIFIC INQUIRY

Pragmatic model: Pragmatic theory of truth

Charles Peirce considered scientific inquiry to be a species of the genus inquiry, which he defined as any means of fixing belief, that is, any means of arriving at a settled opinion on a matter in question.

He observed that inquiry in general begins with a state of uncertainty and moves toward a state of certainty, sufficient at least to terminate the inquiry for the time being. He graded the prevalent forms of inquiry according to their evident success in achieving their common objective, scoring scientific inquiry at the high end of this scale.

MODEL PRAGMATIS

At the low end he placed what he called the method of tenacity, a die-hard attempt to deny uncertainty and fixate

on a favored belief.

Next in line he placed the method of authority, a determined attempt to conform to a chosen source of

ready-made beliefs.

After that he placed what might be called the method of congruity, also called the a priori, the dilettante, or the

what is agreeable to reason method.

MODEL PRAGMATIS

Peirce observed the fact of human nature that almost everybody uses almost all of these methods at one time or

another, and that even scientists, being human, use the method of authority far more than they like to admit.

But what recommends the specifically scientific method of inquiry above all others is the fact that it is deliberately designed to arrive at the ultimately most secure beliefs, upon which the most successful actions can be based.

MODEL PRAGMATIS

Many subspecialties of applied logic and computer science, to name a few, artificial intelligence, machine learning,

computational learning theory, inferential statistics, and knowledge representation, are concerned with setting out

computational, logical, and statistical frameworks for the various types of inference involved in scientific inquiry, in particular,

hypothesis formation, logical deduction, and empirical testing.

Some of these applications draw on measures of complexity from algorithmic information theory to guide the making of predictions from

prior distributions of experience, for example, see the complexity measure called the speed prior from which a computable strategy for

optimal inductive reasoning can be derived.

PENDEKATAN KOMPUTASIONAL

While the philosophy of science has limited direct impact on day-to-day scientific practice, it plays a vital role in justifying and defending the scientific approach. Philosophy of science looks at the underpinning

logic of the scientific method, at what separates science from non-science,and the ethic that is implicit in science.

We find ourselves in a world that is not directly understandable. We find that we sometimes disagree with others as to the facts of the things we see in the world around us, and we find that there are things in the

world that are at odds with our present understanding.

FILOSOFI & SOSIOLOGI SAINS

The scientific method attempts to provide a way in which we can reach agreement and understanding.

A "perfect" scientific method might work in such a way that rational application of the method would always result in

agreement and understanding; a perfect method would arguably be algorithmic, and so not leave any room for rational agents to

disagree. As with all philosophical topics, the search has been neither

straightforward nor simple.

Logical Positivist, empiricist, falsificationist, and other theories have claimed to give a definitive account of the logic of science,

but each has in turn been criticized.

FILOSOFI & SOSIOLOGI SAINS

Thomas Samuel Kuhn examined the history of science in his The Structure of Scientific Revolutions, and found that the actual method used by scientists differed dramatically from the then-

espoused method.

Paul Feyerabend similarly examined the history of science, and was led to deny that science is genuinely a methodological process.

In his book Against Method he argues that scientific progress is not the result of applying any particular method. In essence, he says

that "anything goes", by which he meant that for any specific methodology or norm of science, successful science has been done

in violation of it.

FILOSOFI & SOSIOLOGI SAINS

Criticisms such as his led to the strong programme, a radical approach to the sociology of science.

In his 1958 book, Personal Knowledge, chemist and philosopher Michael Polanyi (1891-1976) criticized the common view that the

scientific method is purely objective and generates objective knowledge. Polanyi cast this view as a misunderstanding of the

scientific method and of the nature of scientific inquiry, generally. He argued that scientists do and must follow personal passions in appraising facts and in determining which scientific questions to

investigate. He concluded that a structure of liberty is essential for the

advancement of science - that the freedom to pursue science for its own sake is a prerequisite for the production of knowledge

through peer review and the scientific method.

FILOSOFI & SOSIOLOGI SAINS

The postmodernist critiques of science have themselves been the subject of intense controversy and heated dialogue.

This ongoing debate, known as the science wars, is the result of the conflicting values and assumptions held by the

postmodernist and realist camps. Whereas postmodernists assert that scientific knowledge is

simply another discourse and not representative of any form of fundamental truth, realists in the scientific community maintain that scientific knowledge does reveal real and

fundamental truths about reality.

Many books have been written by scientists which take on this problem and challenge the assertions of the postmodernists while

defending science as a legitimate method of deriving truth

FILOSOFI & SOSIOLOGI SAINS

Frequently the scientific method is not employed by a single person, but by several people cooperating

directly or indirectly.

Such cooperation can be regarded as one of the defining elements of a scientific community.

Various techniques have been developed to ensure the integrity of the scientific method within such an

environment.

KOMUNIKASI, KOMUNITAS & BUDAYA

Scientific journals use a process of peer review, in which scientists' manuscripts are submitted by editors of scientific journals to (usually one to three) fellow (usually anonymous)

scientists familiar with the field for evaluation.

The referees may or may not recommend publication, publication with suggested modifications, or, sometimes,

publication in another journal.

This serves to keep the scientific literature free of unscientific or crackpot work, helps to cut down on obvious errors, and generally otherwise improve the quality of the scientific

literature.

EVALUASI KELOMPOK PAKAR

Work announced in the popular press before going through this process is generally frowned upon.

Sometimes peer review inhibits the circulation of unorthodox work, and at other times may be too permissive.

The peer review process is not always successful, but has been very widely adopted by the scientific community.

EVALUASI KELOMPOK PAKAR

Sometimes experimenters may make systematic errors during their experiments, unconsciously veer from the scientific

method (Pathological science) for various reasons, or (in rare cases) deliberately falsify their results.

Consequently, it is a common practice for other scientists to attempt to repeat the experiments in order to duplicate the

results, thus further validating the hypothesis.

DOKUMENTASI & REPLIKASI

As a result, researchers are expected to practice scientific data archiving in compliance with the policies of government

funding agencies and scientific journals.

Detailed records of their experimental procedures, raw data, statistical analyses and source code are preserved in order to provide evidence of

the effectiveness and integrity of the procedure and assist in reproduction.

These procedural records may also assist in the conception of new experiments to test the hypothesis, and may prove useful to engineers who might examine the potential practical applications of a discovery.

PENG - ARSIP - AN

Note that it is not possible for a scientist to record everything that took place in an experiment.

He must select the facts he believes to be relevant to the experiment and report them.

This may lead, unavoidably, to problems later if some supposedly irrelevant feature is questioned.

For example, Heinrich Hertz did not report the size of the room used to test Maxwell's equations, which later turned out to account for a small deviation

in the results.

The problem is that parts of the theory itself need to be assumed in order to select and report the experimental conditions. The

observations are hence sometimes described as being 'theory-laden'.

KETERBATASAN

The primary constraints on contemporary western science are:1. Publication, i.e. Peer review 2. Resources (mostly funding)

It has not always been like this: in the old days of the "gentleman scientist" funding (and to a lesser extent publication)

were far weaker constraints.

Both of these constraints indirectly bring in a scientific method — work that too obviously violates the constraints will be

difficult to publish and difficult to get funded.

DIMENSI PRAKTIS

Journals do not require submitted papers to conform to anything more specific than "good scientific practice" and this is mostly enforced by

peer review. Originality, importance and interest are more important - see for

example the author guidelines for Nature.

Criticisms (see Critical theory) of these restraints are that they are so nebulous in definition (e.g. "good scientific practice") and open to ideological, or even political, manipulation apart from a rigorous

practice of a scientific method, that they often serve to censor rather than promote scientific discovery.

METODE ILMIAH

Perkembangan metode ilmiah tidak dapat dipisahkan dari sejarah ilmu pengetahuan.

Dokumen-dokumen Mesir kuno, seperti “papyri”, menjelaskan metode-metode diagnosis medis.

Dalam budaya Yunani kuno, dijelaskan tentang metode empirisme.

The experimental scientific method was developed by Muslim scientists, who introduced the use of experiments to distinguish

between competing scientific theories set within a generally empirical orientation, which emerged with Alhazen's optical

experiments in his Book of Optics.

SEJARAH METODE ILMIAH

The fundamental tenets of the modern scientific method crystallized no later than the rise of the modern physical

sciences, in the 17th and 18th centuries.

In his work Novum Organum (1620) — a reference to Aristotle's Organon — Francis Bacon outlined a new system of logic to

improve upon the old philosophical process of syllogism. Then, in 1637, René Descartes established the framework for a scientific method's guiding principles in his treatise, Discourse

on Method.

Karya tulis ini dianggap sangat kritis dalam sejartah perkembangan metode ilmiah.

SEJARAH METODE ILMIAH

Pada akhikr abad 19, Charles Sanders Peirce mengusulkan suatu skema, yang sangat berpengaruh terhadap perkembangan metode

ilmiah yang ada saat ini.

Pertama, dalam konteks yang lebih luas "How to Make Our Ideas Clear" (1878) , Peirce menjelaskan suatu metode yang dapat diverifikasi secara obyektif untuk menguji kebenaran

pengetahuan dengan cara yang bertumpu pada DEDUKSI dan INDUKSI.

He thus placed induction and deduction in a complementary rather than competitive context (the latter of which had been the primary trend at least since David Hume, who wrote in the mid-

to-late 18th century).

Sejarah METODE ILMIAH

Ke dua, Peirce meletakkan landasan untuk pengujian hipotesis yang masih berlaku terus hingga sekarang. Dengan mengekstraks teori tentang “inquiry” dari

bahan-bahan mentahnya dalam logika klasik, ia menyempurnakannya sejalan dengan perkembangan

awal dari logika simbolik untuk mengarahkan “problematik” pada penalaran ilmiah.

Peirce menelaah dan mengartikulasikan tiga metode penalaran yaitu, inferensi abductive, deductive, dan

inductive.

Sejarah METODE ILMIAH

Ke tiga, Peirce memainkan peran utama dalam perkembangan logika simbolik - memang ini merupakan spesialisasinya yang

utama.

Karl Popper (1902–1994), mulai pada 1930 dan terus berkembang setelah Perang Dunia II, berpendapat bahwa suatu hipotesis harus “falsifiable” dan, sesuai dnegan Peirce dan pakar lainnya, bahwa

pengetahuan berkembang dnegan baik dengan menggunakan penalaran deduktif sebagai tujuan utamanya, dikenal sebagai “critical

rationalism”.

His astute formulations of logical procedure helped to rein in excessive use of inductive speculation upon inductive speculation, and also strengthened the conceptual foundation for today's peer review

procedures.

Sejarah METODE ILMIAH