Matching VET supply with labour market demand

Source of data used for matching VET supply with labour market demand

Florin Gheorghe Mărginean Head of planning and partnership department

National Centre for TVET Development

1. Forecast of training demand -medium and long term perspective

Data source:Study forecast the demand for professional training in

2013 and 2020 perspective Study realised in the project co-financed by ESF

“Corelation of the educational supply in VET with labour market demand”

byNational Centre for TVET Development

andNational Scientific Research Institute for Labour and Social

Protection

Methodological issues

• Forecasting methodology: econometric modeling; methodology similar to that used by Cambridge Econometrics in the forecast model used by CEDEFOP

• Three projection scenarios: pessimistic, moderate, optimistic• Methodological limitations:

– lack of statistical information at the level of detail required, gaps in data series due to changes in classifications and NACE COR, reduced length of time series used in econometric modeling, etc..

– uncertainty about the medium and long term developments of the global economic crisis

– The lack of statistical information on the distribution of employment by economic activity, occupational subgroup and training areas can introduce substantial errors in estimating the demand for training.

Methodological issues (2)• Potential demand - Potential demand is the number of people estimated to be

necessary for carrying out economic activities in terms of population employed.This level will be satisfied when the number of people actually filled is equal to the estimated need of the population employed, in other cases we have a deficit or surplus to the needs of the population employed.

- Potential demand should not to be confused with employment (although it apparently identical or similar values to it) and should not be considered as effective demand in terms of vacancies.

- Potential demand forecasts provide benchmarks for the evolution of demand structure analysis by sectors, occupations, skill levels, training areas.

Methodological issues (3)

• Replaced demandthe number of jobs resulting from the withdrawal of participants in

economic activity due to retirements and other natural losses • Jobs availablethe amount beteen the change of potential demand (changes from

the beginning of the period under review) and replacement demand. Potential changes in demand to start the period under review (year) is, increase or decrease the potential demand from year to year. This indicator can take positive values if the employment is growing or employment is declining but the decrease is smaller in absolute value than demand replaced.

• Estimated demand by training domainsEstimating demand for training in areas of training was based on

potential demand for labor at the junction of its structure subgroup major occupations NACE Rev2 sections and using a transfer matrix in areas of training.

Results (exemples)

A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O

Technicians in physics and engineering

Tehnicians in life sciences, health

Other similar occupation tehnicians

Office servants

Public service servants

Workers in personal and security services

Models, shop and market sellers

Farmers and workers skilled in agriculture, forestry and fishing

Craftsmen and skilled workers in mining and construction

Craftsmen and skilled workers in Metal, machinery and related

Craftsmen and skilled workers Precision, handicraft, printing and related

Craftsmen and skilled workers in food

Operators Stationary and assimilated workers

Operators machinery and assemblers of machinery, equipment and other products

Drivers and mobile plant operators

Projection of the potential labor demand by economic activities - moderate scenario, N-E

region level (no. people)

Projection of the potential labor demand by economic activities - moderate scenario, national

level (no. people)

Forecast potential demand structure, the moderate scenario, the training areas of VET in the North-East in perspective 2017-2020

Areas of training %

Agriculture 10,3

Industrial Chemistry 0,9

Construction 10,4

Trade 12,9

Economic 12,8

Electric 4,4

Electromechanics 3,4

Electronic, automation 3,5

Wood industry 1,5

Food industry 0,7

Textile and leather industry 9,4

Building materials 0,8

Mechanics 18,7

Tourism and food 7,6

Natural resources and environmental protection 2,6

Printing Techniques 0,1

Total 100,0

2. Survey in enterprises on labor demand in the short term perspective

Data source:Survey in enterprises on labor demand in the short term

perspective (12 month)Study realised in the project co-financed by ESF

“Corelation of the educational supply in VET with labour market demand”

byNational Centre for TVET Development

andNational Scientific Research Institute for Labour and

Social Protection

Methodological issues

• Interviews "face to face" with representaives of companies based on the questionnaire

• Sample of 3836 firms, national and regional representative, from August 14 to September 14, 2011.

• National maximum permissible error: ± 1.56% at a confidence level of 95% maximum permissible error at regional level: ± 4.4% at a confidence level of 95%

• Sampling methodology: probabilistic sample type, multistage and stratified. Way of achieving probabilistic sample ensures the presence of all economic branches and sub- branches, a similar proportion in the economy.

Results (exemples) Evolution of number of employees 2008-2011, by size class (percentage dynamic

from year to year, the number last year of 100%) -%

Share of firms with vacancies (% of firms with vacancies in all companies in the region)

Share of firms with vacancies by economic activities (% of firms with vacancies from total

companies in each economic activity)

Vacancy rate, by regions (%)

Vacancy rate by the economic sectors (%)

Distribution of vacancies on the relevant skill areas for technological and vocational high school (%)

Distribution of vacancies, by level of education required by employers, as well as the development area (% from total vacancies in each region)

Distribution of vacancies by the number of months they are unoccupied (%)

The reasons for job vacancies in view of employers (%)

The most important knowledge and skills required to fill vacancies (%)

Structure of jobs estimated growth on the horizon of the next 12 months, by level of

education required for employment in occupations appointed by employers (%)

Distribution jobs estimated increase, by qualification - relevant occupations for vocational technical school (%)

Satisfaction companies employing graduates to their professional qualifications

Thank you for your attention!