Market Outlook for Irish Beef & Livestock
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Market Outlook for Irish Beef & Livestock June 2021
Transcript of Market Outlook for Irish Beef & Livestock
Market Outlook for Irish Beef & Livestock
June 2021
Agenda
• Market Outlook
• Bord Bia Market Activity
• Market challenges &
opportunities facing the
Irish Beef Sector
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Producer Prices: Ireland vs UK & EU-average(c/kg excl. VAT)
Latest prices: Ireland €4.13/kg vs. UK €4.64 vs. EU avg. €3.82/kg (w/e. 22/05)
300.0
350.0
400.0
450.0
UK R3Steer
Ireland R3Steer
EU- avg R3Young Bull
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
440
Prime Irish Composite Vs Prime Export Benchmark
Prime Export Benchmark Prime Ireland Composite
€4.07/kg
Latest wk YTD 2021 Full Yr 2020
€3.97/kg
€3.82/kg €3.56/kg€3.85/kg €3.55/kg
Prime Irish Composite
Prime Export Benchmark
Cattle Price Developments
5
300
320
340
360
380
400
420
Prime Irish Composite vs. Prime EU Composite
Prime EU Composite Prime Ireland Composite
Prime EU Composite
Prime Irish Composite €4.07/kg
€3.70/kg
Latest wk
€3.82/kg
€3.64/kg
YTD 2021 full yr 2020
€3.56/kg€3.46/kg
Cattle Price Developments
6
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Irish Weekly Cattle Throughput
2019
2020
2021
Last weeks Kill: 31,076 hd Change vs. same wk last yr: +2,144 hd,
Kill to date: 658,250 hd Change vs. same period last yr: -37,417 hd, -5.4%
-4,000+28,000
-25,000
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
0-12 12-24 24-36
2020 2021
Irish Cattle Supply Outlook
Numbers of Female Beef Cattle on Apr 1st
Numbers of Male Cattle on April 1st
+48,000
+75,000
-37,000
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
0-12 12-24 24-36
2020 2021
DAFM AIM database
Irish Supply Forecast
8
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
Quarterly Cattle Supply - Export Meat Plants
2019
2020
2021F
2022F
-12% -6% -8%+2%
Overall supplies expected
to be approx. 6% tighter
Equivalent to 100 -
120,000 fewer cattle
Beef Market Forecasts (2021)
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UK beef production forecast to fall by 5%
Recent EU-27 Beef Working Group forecast -2.0%
EU-27 Beef Production 2021 (% Change)
Retail Meat Sales trends
Ireland:
*12 wks to 16/05: Overall meat -4.7%
Beef volumes -5.2% / spend -2.1%
(Mince -19.3%, Steak -1.7%)
Britain:
12 wks to 18/04:
Beef volumes -4.7% / spend +0.3%
(Mince -17.7%, Steak +19.2%)
*In 2020, for the 12 wks to 17/05/20: Beef +21% (Mince +31%, Steak +13%)
Therefore, recent retail volumes are still 15% higher than in 2019.
Irish Livestock Exports 2021Wk’s 1-20 2019 2020 2021 2020/21
Spain 58,820 47,177 53,976 +14%
Netherlands 77,880 48,268 41,038 -15%
Northern Ireland 14,222 16,403 34,146 +108%
Italy 18,288 12,710 18,835 +48%
Libya 4,211 7,636 4,928 -35%
France 6,277 2,957 2,480 -16%
Belgium 2,682 4,044 1,948 -52%
Great Britain 1,892 2,111 1,403 -34%
Other 10,877 8,672 2,823 -67%
Total 195,149 149,978 161,577 +8%
Calf exports +2% to 118,467
Weanlings & stores +17% to 23,060
Finished / adult cattle +46% to 20,050
Bord Bia Market Activity for Beef
Customer PartnershipsDriving Success & Growth in the Market
Supporting key Foodservice customers
through Recovery
Maintain current strong sales of Irish beef to
priority retail customers
B2B Activity: Q3 2021Building
Reputation
for Growth
B2C Campaigns Q3 & Q4 2021Building
Reputation
for Growth
Grass Fed
• Rollout of Verified Grass Fed offer
across key markets
• Bord Bia supporting via:
Buyer presentations
Market insights and taste testing
Marketing Support
Market challenges & opportunities facing the Irish Beef Sector
Market challenges facing the Irish beef sector
• Concerns around Environment, Animal Welfare, AMR
• Local preference
• Economic factors: consumer spending, price sensitivity
• Likely to face more competition in UK market (FTA’s)
• Possible implications of future EU food policies e.g. Farm to fork
• Growth in “meat alternatives”
Top 10 Factors Influencing Beef
Purchases
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(Base: All Beef Shoppers)
1. Animal Welfare
2. Food Safety
3. Antibiotic free
4. Natural Taste
5. Outdoor reared/pasture raised
6. Trusted source
7. Country of Origin
8. Natural Nutrition
9. From a clean environment
10.Independently audited quality
standards
1. Antibiotic free
2. Outdoor reared/pasture raised
3. Local Origin
4. Not factory farmed
5. Country of Origin
6. Natural Taste
7. Trusted source
8. Animal Welfare
9. Traceable from farm to table
10.Sustainably farmed and produced
1. Antibiotic free
2. Country of Origin
3. Trusted Source
4. Food Safety
5. GMO-Free
6. Outdoor reared/pasture raised
7. Traceable from farm to table
8. Local origin
9. Clean labelling
10.Natural Nutrition
The Environment
We are being more mindful of how the decisions we make
are affecting our environment, with a
conscious decision to reduce our plastic consumption and our carbon footprint evident
The origin and provenance of the food
we purchase continues to be an important factor in
our decision making process
1. 2. 3.A significant proportion of
consumers are willing to pay more for food which is sustainably
produced
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Trusted Source
Source: AHDB
Beef Imports to the UK (Fresh & Frozen)
Possible threat to Irish beef’s market-share in UK
• UK to announce a FTA with
Australia in the coming week:
• Draft agreement based on
“zero-tariff, zero-quota” model
• Could provide a template for
future UK trade agreements
(e.g. NZ, USA)
Meat Alternatives continue to
gain prominence
Potential opportunities facing the Irish beef sector
• Growing beef consumption and import demand in emerging
markets
• Become the preferred choice of consumers choosing to eat
“less but better” meat
• Maintain shoppers’ positive impressions and associations of
Irish beef, at similar levels as during the Covid-19 restrictions
• Recovery of Foodservice demand
Per capita pork consumption in-decline due to ASF
Beef consumption rising, despite limited access/availability
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Relatively strong international beef trade
Australian Eastern Young Cattle Indicator (EYCI) $c/kg
While we may have recorded
reduced consumption of red meat in
Western Europe.
There has been no such drop in the
US market, with consumption levels
consistent over the past 12 months.
Past 12 months consumption is
increasing in China.
+11%
Our Beef tracking
research shows that European shoppers are
buying “less but better quality
beef”
Nov – Dec
’20
34%
24%
23%
22%
21%
18%
14%
(Base: All Adults aged 18+ n=18,591) (Source: Bord Bia European Beef Tracker)
In fact, this Dietary Lifestyles
study highlights that the consumption of Red meat is
still strong across the week,
with steak playing a key role for evening meals, particularly
at the weekend.
Start/Middle of Week End of Week
Lunch
Evening Meals
18%
28%
23%
35%(Base: All Adults aged 18+ n=18,591)
9% 7% 14% 10%
33% 23% 45% 33%
Market Outlook for Irish Beef & Livestock
June 2021
