Irish & EU Beef & Livestock Market Outlook...November 2016 Irish & EU Beef & Livestock Market...
Transcript of Irish & EU Beef & Livestock Market Outlook...November 2016 Irish & EU Beef & Livestock Market...
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
CHIEF EXECUTIVE
BORD BIA
28 JANUARY 2009
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
November 2016
Irish & EU Beef & Livestock Market Outlook
Joe Burke
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2016
2015
Irish weekly finished cattle supplies (head)
5.1% Increase in Irish Cattle Supplies
(+68,500 head)
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
0-12 12-24 24-36
2015 2016
Male Cattle Numbers by Age Category on 1st of September
-24,000
+71,000
+44,000 Source:
AIM
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
0-12 12-24 24-36
2015 2016
Female Beef Cattle No.s by Age Category on 1st of September
Source: AIM
+3,000
+51,000 +13,000
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Finished Cattle Supplies – Export Meat Plants 2013 – 2017(F)
2017: 100-120,000 additional finished cattle likely
1.49 1.65
1.56 1.63-1.64
1.73-1.75
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2013 2014 2015 2016E 2017F
Mill
ion
he
ad
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
(head) 2015 2016 % change
Total
NI
GB
Italy
Spain
Netherlands
Belgium
France
Other EU
Int. mkt.s
163,547
46,759
8,086
22,038
28,755
43,624
473
8,503
1,253
4,056
124,059
20,922
5,823
17,259
35,848
26,937
328
5,854
2,443
8,645
-24%
-55%
-28%
-22%
+25%
-38%
-31%
-31%
+95%
+113%
Live Cattle Exports 2016 Distribution of Live Exports from Ireland up to w/e. 5th November
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Producer Prices: Ireland vs. Continental EU (c/kg excl VAT)
(w/e 05/11) Irish Price €3.54/kg vs. UK €3.95 vs. Continental EU av: €3.60/kg
In Italy, R3 young bull price: €3.72/kg, Spain: €3.63, France: €3.57, Germany €3.74
200
250
300
350
400
450UK R3 Steer
Ireland R3Steer
ContinentalEuropean R3Young Bull
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Currency Exchange Rates
Average for 2014: €1: £0.806
16th Nov 2016: €1: £0.861
Value of Euro in Sterling terms
For 2015: €1: £0.726
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
British Cattle Price Development in Sterling terms
£ Ste
rling p
/kg
Last week: GB R3 steers average £3.61 @ 88.2p = €4.09/kg
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
UK
• Throughput +5.1%
• Steers +3.6% / YB’s +11%
• Cull cows +10%
European Markets
Cattle Supplies 2016
France
• Production +1.8%
• Cull cows: +3.8%
• Live Exports +6.5%
Germany
• Production +0.3%
Italy
• Production N/C.
• Live imports +3%
Spain
• Throughput +5%
• Live imports +10%
• Live exports -15%
EU Beef Production 3.5% higher (EU Commission)
Source: EU Commission beef forecast working group
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Germany (EU Forecast)
Volume : +1.1%
France
(Jan to mid-Sept)
Volume: -0.8%
Av Price: +2.3%
Britain
(12 wks to mid-Oct)
Volume: -1.5%
Av Price: -4.3%
Home Market
(12 wks to mid-Oct)
Volume: +3.1%
Av Price: -0.7%
EU Beef Retail Sales / Consumption 2016
Italy (EU Forecast)
Volume : -1.1%
Netherlands (EU Forecast)
Volume : +1.8%
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
• Exports 510,000 T
• UK 54% / 275,000 T
• EU 42% / 220,000 T
– France 52,000 T
– Netherlands 40,000 T
– Italy 38,000 T
– Scandinavia 42,000 T
– Germany 24,000 T
• International 3% 15,000 T
Irish Beef Markets 2015
Source: CSO / Bord Bia Estimates
-2%
+1%
-1%
+5%
-1%
-3%
+10%
+140%
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
UK: Maintaining Profile in Retail and Foodservice
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
GERMANY Driving Awareness and building premium positioning
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Netherlands Maintaining Image based on Quality, Environment and Welfare attributes
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
Chefs Irish Beef Club 84 Michelin-starred chefs acting as ambassadors for Irish beef across 8 markets
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
CHINA & SOUTH-EAST ASIA EU Funded Campaign
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
AIDAN COTTER
CHIEF EXECUTIVE
BORD BIA
28 JANUARY 2009
Growing the success of Irish food & horticulture
November 2016
Irish & EU Beef & Livestock Market Outlook
Joe Burke