Mansoor Ahmed Director (MENA Region) Research & Advisory Colliers International MENA Director (MENA

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Transcript of Mansoor Ahmed Director (MENA Region) Research & Advisory Colliers International MENA Director (MENA

  • 1

    Mansoor Ahmed

    Director (MENA Region) – Research & Advisory

    Colliers International MENA

  • 2

    World Changes Affecting

    & Disrupting Real

    Estate

  • 3

    Industry 4.0

    Artificial Intelligence

    Coworking

    Air BNB

    Changing Traditional Retail

    The Digital Economy

    Telemedicine

  • 4

    Residential

    Retail

    Offices

    Hospitality

    Healthcare

    Education

    Logistics?

    The Last Mile Logistic!

  • 5

    Iconomy

  • 6

    71% Use mobile

    in stores

    60% Of all ecommerce

    traffic is on a

    mobile device

    47% Make repeat purchase

    through a marketplace

    50% Make their first purchase

    through a retailer

    46% Prefer to buy in

    a physical store

    SHOPPER-

    FIRST FACTS

    82% Are willing to have their

    product shipped to

    home within 24 hours

  • 7

    Russia USD 19 Billion

    South Korea USD 69 Billion

    Germany USD 77 Billion

    France USD 55 Billion

    Brazil USD 16 Billion

    USA USD 561 Billion

    Canada USD 44 Billion

    UK USD 93 Billion

    Japan USD 87 Billion

    China USD 740 Billion

    Ecommerce Global Market Value

  • 8

    USD 2.8 Trillion of e-commerce sales in 2018

    20% CAGR between 2018 - 2021

  • 9

    1.2 Million Sqft required for every Billion Dollars Prologis

    53% of delivery costs are in the “last mile” – BI Business Intelligence Incider

  • The Truck Route – Already Well Established and Developed

    So What About Cairo?

  • 11

    Consolidation Hub

    Micro – hub

    Truck Route

    Last Mile Route

    The Opportunity?

    Rapid Delivery Network Service Zone

    New Real Estate Asset Class?

  • 12

    Standby Couriers Pick up

    (Centralized Hub) Drop Off

    Home

    Offices

    Stores

    Anywhere

  • 13

    So why and where for Greater Cairo?

  • 14

    What Density Map Illustrates Cairo?

  • 15

    What Density Map Illustrates Cairo?

    Karachi 50,084 ppl/km2

    Shanghai 77,726 ppl/km2

    London 18,769 ppl/km2

    New York 38,242 ppl/km2

    Cairo 153,606 ppl/km2

  • 16

    How Big is the

    Egyptian Market?

  • 17

    2018 2021

    USD 0.6 Billion

    USD 1.0 Billion

    16% CAGR

    41% Internet

    penetration rate

    26% Smart Phone

    Penetration rate

    6% Credit Cards

    Penetration rate

    70% Of population are

    below 35 years of

    age

    Online Sales in Egypt

  • 18

    18.4%

    8.2%

    2.5% 1.2%

    0.4%

    Online Retail As a Percentage of Total Retail Sales

  • 19

    40 Million of internet users in 2018

    10% CAGR 53 Million of internet users in 2021

    41%

    Internet Penetration in 2018

    51%

    Internet Penetration in 2021

    8% CAGR

    Internet Users In Egypt

  • 20

    26 Million of smart phone users in 2018

    8% CAGR 33 Million of smart phone users in 2021

    26%

    Smart Phone Penetration in 2018

    31%

    Smart Phone Penetration in 2021

    6% CAGR

    Smart Phone Users In Egypt

  • 21

    24 million online buyer in 2018

    5.8 million credit cards in 2017

    72% Cash

    22% Credit card

    Preferred online payment method

    6% Others (i.e. PayPal)

    33 million in 2021

    22 million in 2021 40% CAGR

    10% CAGR

    Online Buyers Payment Preferences

  • 22

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2017

    2015

    2018

    2019

    Online Shopping Evolution

  • 23

    2010

    2011

    2012

    2017

    2015

    2018

    2019

    Growth of Homegrown Logistics/ Couriers

  • 24

    Sheikh Zayed

    city

    6th of October city

    Pyramids Gardens

    Kafr Ghatati

    Shubra El-Kheima

    Boulaq

    Imbaba

    Kerdassa

    Haram

    Omrania

    Monib

    Kafr Tuhmous Giza

    Dokki Mohandesin

    Kitkat Agouza

    Rhoda Manial

    Garden City

    Zamalek

    Boulaq Aboul-Ela

    Shubra

    Faggala

    Downtown

    Old Cairo

    Islamic Cairo

    Ein El-Sirah

    Maadi

    Turah

    Masarra

    Mukattam

    Nasr City

    Abbassia

    Heliopolis

    El-Quba

    Zatoun (Zeitoun)

    Al-Matariya

    Marg

    Ain Shams

    Cairo International

    Airport (CAI)

    Sheraton Residence

    El-Hadba El- Wosta

    New Cairo City

    Obour City

    New Heliopolis

    Badr City

    Shorouk City

    Madinaty

    Zahra’a Al-

    Maadi

    Low Density High Density

    6th of October city

    New Cairo City

    Downtown

    Maadi

    Shubra

    Heliopolis

    Nasr City

    Giza

    Shorouk

    Population Density In Greater Cairo

  • 25

    ~ 45 mins driving time

    ~ 60 mins driving time

    Downtown Cairo 5KM radius

    Shopping Malls

    Traffic Density In Greater Cairo

  • 26

    Low Density High Density

    6th of October city

    New Cairo City

    Downtown

    Maadi

    Shubra

    Heliopolis

    Nasr City

    Giza

    Shorouk

    Logistics Hub

    Existing Locations In Greater Cairo

  • 27

    Low Income High Income

    6th of October city

    New Cairo City

    Downtown

    Maadi

    Shubra

    Heliopolis

    Nasr City

    Giza

    Shorouk

    Consumers'’ Affordability Levels In Greater Cairo

    Overlay Population Density with

    Affordability Levels?

  • 28

    Government / Embassies expected to

    be relocated to New Administrative City

    Low Density High Density

    6th of October city

    New Cairo City

    Maadi

    Shubra

    Heliopolis

    Nasr City

    Giza

    Shorouk

    Downtown

    So What Locations ?

  • 29

    Low Density High Density

    6th of October city

    New Cairo City

    Maadi

    Shubra

    Heliopolis

    Nasr City

    Giza

    Shorouk

    Downtown

    The Mix & Match

    Overlay Population Density with

    Affordability Levels?

  • 30

    Low Income High Income

    6th of October city

    New Cairo City

    Downtown

    Maadi

    Shubra

    Heliopolis

    Nasr City

    Giza

    Shorouk

    The Answer!

    Opportunities for

    Centralized Hubs?

  • 31

    20% Non-Residential Land Allocation in New Cities Opportunities Created Through Last Mile?

  • 32

    20% Non-Residential Land Allocation in New Cities Opportunities Created Through Last Mile?

    Logistics Hubs

    Self Pick Up and Drop Off

  • 33

    Last Mile & Hub Logistics

    The

    New Generation of Asset Class

  • 34

    Real Estate

    Real Advisors

    Real Advice