LAKE TOBA BASELINE DEMAND SUPPLY MARKET DEMAND FORECASTS...

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  • LAKE TOBA

    BASELINE DEMAND & SUPPLY, MARKET DEMAND FORECASTS, AND INVESTMENT NEEDS

    MARKET ANALYSIS AND DEMAND ASSESSMENTS TO SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTEGRATED TOURISM DESTINATIONS

    ACROSS INDONESIA

    World Bank Selection #1223583

  • ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

    PREPARED BY:

    FOR:

    WITH SUPPORT FROM:

  • TABLE OF CONTENTS

    ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................. ii

    TABLE OF CONTENTS ............................................................................................. iii

    TABLE OF FIGURES .................................................................................................. vi

    INTRODUCTION ........................................................................................................ 1

    BASELINE DEMAND & SUPPLY ............................................................................... 4

    1. DESTINATION CHARACTERISTICS ........................................................................ 5

    1.1 GEOGRAPHY ......................................................................................................................................... 5

    1.2 CLIMATE ................................................................................................................................................. 7

    2. DESTINATION DEFINITION ...................................................................................... 8

    2.1 KEY ATTRACTIONS & TOURISM AREAS .................................................................................... 8

    2.2 CONCLUSIONS ON ATTRACTIONS ......................................................................................... 15

    3. VISITOR ARRIVALS & DEMOGRAPHICS ............................................................... 16

    3.1 INTRODUCTION .............................................................................................................................. 16

    3.2 DAY VISITORS & VISITORS STAYING WITH FRIENDS & RELATIVES .............................. 16

    3.3 VISITORS IN COMMERCIAL ACCOMMODATION ................................................................ 17

    3.4 FOREIGN MARKET AWARENESS & VISITOR SENTIMENT ................................................. 21

    3.5 TOURISM PROMOTION / DESTINATION MARKETING ..................................................... 23

    3.6 CONCLUSIONS ON VISITOR ARRIVALS & DEMOGRAPHICS .......................................... 23

    4. ACCESSIBILITY HIGHLIGHTS ................................................................................. 24

    4.1 EXISTING MODE OF TRAVEL AND VISITORS MOVEMENT ............................................. 24

    5. HOTEL & LODGING OPTIONS (AMENITIES) ....................................................... 27

    5.1 VOLUME OF ROOMS ....................................................................................................................... 27

    5.2 PERFORMANCE ESTIMATES .......................................................................................................... 28

    5.3 HOTEL FACILITIES ............................................................................................................................. 29

    6. SMES: SUPPORTING TOURISM INFRASTRUCTURE (AMENITIES) ................. 32

    6.1 INDEPENDENT FOOD & BEVERAGE .......................................................................................... 32

    6.2 RECREATIONAL CRUISES............................................................................................................... 32

    6.3 TRAVEL AGENCIES & TOUR SERVICES ..................................................................................... 32

    6.4 TRANSPORT PROVIDERS ............................................................................................................... 33

    6.5 TOURISM SERVICE PROVIDERS .................................................................................................... 33

    6.6 OTHER SERVICE PROVIDERS ........................................................................................................ 33

    6.7 CONCLUSIONS ON SMES SUPPORTING TOURISM ACTIVITIES ..................................... 33

    7. INVESTMENT ANALYSIS .......................................................................................... 34

    7.1 REALISED FDI & DDI IN HOTELS & RESTAURANTS ............................................................. 34

    7.2 PLANNED DDI & FDI IN HOTELS & RESTAURANTS ............................................................ 34

    7.3 KEY PLAYERS / INVESTORS ............................................................................................................ 34

    7.4 INVESTMENT SENTIMENT: DOMESTIC & FOREIGN INVESTORS .................................... 35

  • 7.5 WHERE IS THE DESTINATION ON THE INVESTMENT CYCLE ........................................ 36

    7.6 CONCLUSIONS ON INVESTMENT ............................................................................................. 36

    8. SKILLS ASSESSMENT ................................................................................................ 37

    8.1 WHAT SKILLS EXIST ......................................................................................................................... 37

    8.2 SKILLS GAPS ......................................................................................................................................... 37

    8.3 TRAINING SCHOOLS ...................................................................................................................... 37

    DESTINATION SWOT & VISION .......................................................................... 39

    9. DESTINATION SWOT ............................................................................................... 40

    9.1 STRENGTHS ......................................................................................................................................... 40

    9.2 WEAKNESSES ...................................................................................................................................... 40

    9.3 OPPORTUNITIES ................................................................................................................................ 40

    9.4 THREATS ............................................................................................................................................... 41

    10. DESTINATION VISION STATEMENT ................................................................. 42

    10.1 RECOMMENDED DESTINATION VISION ............................................................................. 43

    MARKET DEMAND FORECASTS ........................................................................... 44

    11. FUTURE MARKET DEMAND ANALYSIS............................................................. 45

    11.1 INTRODUCTION: METHODOLOGY ..................................................................................... 45

    11.2 PRIORITY MARKETS FOR THE DESTINATION ................................................................... 45

    11.3 BUSINESS AS USUAL SCENARIO .............................................................................................. 47

    11.4 BEST CASE SCENARIO ................................................................................................................. 51

    11.5 ECONOMIC IMPACT OF THE BEST CASE SCENARIO .................................................... 56

    11.6 SUMMARY OF CONCLUSIONS IN CHARTS ....................................................................... 58

    INVESTMENT NEEDS ............................................................................................... 61

    12. AMENITIES: KEY RECOMMENDATION .............................................................. 62

    12.1 HOTELS & LODGING OPTIONS .............................................................................................. 62

    12.2 FORECASTING FUTURE LODGING SUPPLY NEEDS ........................................................ 64

    12.3 SUPPORTING TOURISM INFRASTRUCTURE (AMENITIES) ............................................ 65

    13. STAFF REQUIRED & SKILLS NEEDED ................................................................ 67

    13.1 ACCOMMODATION STAFF REQUIRED ............................................................................... 67

    13.2 ADDITIONAL STAFF REQUIRED ............................................................................................. 68

    13.3 CONCLUSIONS ON STAFF ....................................................................................................... 71

    14. TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE BASELINE & NEEDS .................................. 72

    BASELINE ........................................................................................................................................................... 72

    14.1 ROAD TRANSPORT ..................................................................................................................... 72

    14.2 RAILWAY .......................................................................................................................................... 77

    14.3 AIR ....................................................................................................................................................... 80

    14.4 SEA TRANSPORT .........................................................................