Using Forecast Models to Create Demand Forecasts in Dynamics AX 2012

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USING MODELS TO CREATE DEMAND

FORECASTS

Dynamics AX | Planning | Forecasting

If you are not the fly by the seat of your pants type, that just waits for orders to come in and then try to work out how to supply the customer, then you probably will want to set up demand forecasts.

In this quick worked example we will show some of the options that you have for modeling and using your forecasts within Dynamics AX 2012.


Creating A Demand

Forecast

You can create demand forecasts directly from the ribbon bar in of the Released Product.


Creating A Demand

Forecast

That will take you into the forecast maintenance.


Creating A Demand

Forecast

To create a simple spot forecast model, you just enter in the forecast date, and the quantity.


Creating Forecasts

for Customer

Groups

You can also create a forecast at the customer group level.


Using the Period

Method to Quickly

Distribute Forecasts

If you don’t want to enter in the forecast by date, then there is an allocation tool built into the demand forecast maintenance. After entering in the forecast you can change the allocation method.

For quick results, we can use the Period option which will allow us to create forecasts into the future..


Using the Period

Method to Quickly


We can create Daily, Monthly, or yearly forecasts. In this case we will create a forecast in weekly buckets.


Using the Period

Method to Quickly


After clicking on the Create Lines button, we now have 52 forecast entries.


Using Period Keys

To Model Demand

The other option for creating forecasts is to use Keys. These are models that you can manipulate to give different period allocations.


Using Period Keys

To Model Demand

The system comes with a number of these, although we will show how you can create your own custom keys in a few slides.


Using Period Keys

To Model Demand

Using the Monthly allocation key, the forecast is now distributed out over the next 12 months.


Using Period Keys

To Model Demand

If we view the details of the allocation keys, we will see the forecast profile that is being used for the allocation. In this case it is a flat quantity for each month.


Using Period Keys

To Model Seasonal

Demand

Looking at another seasonal profile, we can see that this is a little less linier in the definition.


Using Period Keys

To Model Seasonal

Demand

If you click on the lines option, you will be taken into the definition of the model, and you can manipulate the profile to match your own preferences.


Creating a new

Period Key

You may want to get a little more elaborate in your forecast profiles though. In this case I have a model for last year that I want to use to forecast the future demand of my product.


Creating a new

Period Key

I converted the past sales profile into a forecast percentage which I will use in the next step.


Creating a new

Period Key

Now I just need to create a new forecast profile.


Creating a new

Period Key

And then create the profile entries in the lines…


Creating a new

Period Key

That didn’t take too long – although you may want to use an Excel import if you are doing this a lot…


Creating a new

Period Key

Now if we view the allocation key, we can see our new profile.


Creating a new

Period Key

Now that we have the new model, we will just apply it to our demand forecast line…


Creating a new

Period Key

Now our demand looks a little more realistic.


Forecast Demand at

the Customer Level

You don’t have to forecast at the group level either. If you want to create a forecast at the customer level, then you can do that as well.


Forecast Demand at

the Customer Level

Each forecast line can have different allocation model as well.


Forecast Demand at

the Customer Level

All done.


Using your Forecast

To Create Planned

Orders

Now that we have our forecasted demand, we will use this to create our planning requirements. In this example, I have separated out my planning models so that I can just see the dairy items, although you can forecast for the entire product line if you like.


Using your Forecast

To Create Planned

Orders

My panning model is also linked to a supply forecast. All of the examples that I set up were linked to the DAIRY model. This allows you to segregate your demand.


Using your Forecast

To Create Planned

Orders

The Forecast Models can inherit other models as well, allowing you to roll up from product lines to groups.


Using your Forecast

To Create Planned

Orders

After running the planning – we now have all of our planned production for review.

Very cool.

About

Murray Fife

Using Forecast Models to Create Demand Forecasts in Dynamics AX 2012

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