Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International · Research & Forecast Report CHARLOTTE Q2 2017...
Transcript of Research & Forecast Report - Colliers International · Research & Forecast Report CHARLOTTE Q2 2017...
Accelerating success.
Research & Forecast Report
CHARLOTTEQ2 2017 | Multifamily
Source: AXIOMetrics. RCA, CoStar
Market Survey Results and ForecastsSequential Month Annual
3Q16 4Q16 1Q17 2Q17 Jun-17 2015 2016 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
Effective Rent Per Unit $1,043 $1,031 $1,032 $1,056 $1,065 $981 $1,026 $1,052 $1,088 $1,132 $1,166 $1,192
Per Sq. Ft $1.08 $1.07 $1.07 $1.10 $1.11 $1.02 $1.07 $1.09 $1.13 $1.18 $1.21 $1.24
Effective Rent Growth - Annually 4.0% 3.7% 3.1% 2.7% 2.5% 5.4% 4.6% 2.6% 3.4% 4.0% 3.0% 2.2%
Effective Rent Growth - Quarterly 1.4% -1.1% 0.1% 2.3%
Occupancy Rate 95.7% 95.3% 94.9% 95.3% 95.4% 95.2% 95.4% 94.9% 95.2% 95.6% 95.0% 94.4%
Occupancy Change - Annually 0.0% -0.1% -0.2% -0.5% -0.4% 0.6% 0.2% -0.5% 0.2% 0.4% -0.6% -0.6%
Occupancy Change - Quarterly -0.1% -0.4% -0.4% 0.4%
Economic Concessions Concession Value $-3.94 $-7.52 $-6.80 $-6.34 $-5.15 $-4.33 $-5.28
As a % of Asking Rent -0.4% -0.7% -0.7% -0.6% -0.5% -0.4% -0.5%
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 2www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
Multifamily Absorption and Supply
Annual 2Q17 Annual Forecast
2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
Total Units Absorbed 6,165 6,947 7,689 5,884 175,965 7,225 7,614 5,124 3,745 4,637
New Supply 5,772 6,249 8,296 7,250 363,579 8,701 6,837 4,968 5,601 6,206
Inventory Growth 3.7% 3.9% 5.0% 4.7% 1.4% 5.0% 3.7% 2.6% 2.9% 3.1%
Market Employment and Permitting
Annual July-17 Annual Forecast
2014 2015 2016 Market National 2017F 2018F 2019F 2020F 2021F
Employment (000s) 1,066.2 1,108.8 1,149.5 1,187.0 146,748.0 1,180.5 1,208.5 1,242.5 1,270.9 1,294.3
Job Gain (000s) 37.2 42.6 40.7 35.7 2,223.0 31.0 28.0 34.0 28.4 23.4
Job Growth (%) 3.6% 4.0% 3.7% 3.1% 1.5% 2.7% 2.4% 2.8% 2.3% 1.8%
Total Residential Permitting 17,812 18,790 19,353 18,486 1,096,260 20,696 22,045 24,750 21,085 19,226
Relative Change 10.4% 5.5% 3.0% 10.1% 2.2% 6.9% 6.5% 12.3% -14.8% -8.8%
Single Family Units Permitted 11,157 11,742 12,989 12,518 700,786
Relative Change 7.5% 5.2% 10.6% 14.8% 8.0%
Multifamily Units Permitted 6,510 6,861 6,293 5,889 364,372
Relative Change 16.5% 5.4% -8.3% 2.3% -7.3%
Multifamily as a % of Total 36.5% 36.5% 32.5% 31.9% 33.2%
Demand/Supply Ratio Job Gain / Total Residential Units Permitted 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.1
Job Gain / Single Family Units Permitted 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.3 3.4
Job Gain / Multifamily Units Permitted 6.7 6.5 5.9 6.2 5.7
SUPPLY AND DEMANDAccording to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, job growth in Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area was 3.1% in May 2017, reflecting 35,700 jobs added during a 12-month period. The metro job growth figure was above the national number of 1.5%.
Axiometrics forecasts Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC Metro Area’s job growth to be 2.4% in 2018, with 28,037 jobs added. Job growth is expected to average 2.3% from 2019 to 2021, with an average of 28,597 jobs added each year.
On the supply side, permits for 6,186 multifamily units were issued in the 12 months ending in May 2017, down -107 units from the prior year’s sum. In terms of total residential housing, 20,035 units were permitted in the 12 months ending May 2017, an increase of 682 units from the prior year’s total.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 3www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
IDENTIFIED SUPPLYAs of July 16, 2017, Axiometrics has identified 8,630 apartment units scheduled for delivery in 2017, of which, 3,219 have been delivered. As a comparison, there were 8,207 apartment units delivered in 2016. Properties delivered to the market in the last 12 months have achieved an average asking rent of $1,430 per unit, or $1.56 per square foot. Effective rent has averaged $1,338, or $1.46 per square foot, resulting in an average concession value of $-91.76. As a comparison, existing properties in the market had an average asking rent of $1,062 per unit ($1.10 per square foot) and an average effective rent of $1,056 per unit, or $1.10 per square foot, in 2Q17. Concessions for existing properties averaged $-6.34.
Submarket Delivery Schedule
Pipeline Delivery Schedule Pipeline Lease Up Trend
Units Absorbed Asking Rent Effective Rent
Top Submarkets 2015 2016 2017 Total Totals PPM Per Unit PSF Per Unit PSF Downtown 364 797 661 1,822 463 18 $1,412 $1.47 $1,283 $1.33
Fairview North 703 625 1,433 2,761 442 7 $1,794 $2.13 $1,621 $1.92
N. Tryon St. - The Plaza 182 355 1,347 1,884 404 12 $1,423 $1.73 $1,336 $1.63
North Pineville 52 114 980 1,146 196 10 $1,358 $1.41 $1,256 $1.31
Rock Hill 729 1,056 1,177 2,962 641 11 $1,173 $1.11 $1,146 $1.09
Other 3,348 5,260 3,032 11,640 3,604 13 $1,421 $1.53 $1,326 $1.43
Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC 5,378 8,207 8,630 22,215 5,750 12 $1,436 $1.56 $1,339 $1.45*Based on 2017 deliveries *Trend based on a trailing 12 month period
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 4www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
Date Property Name Address City Units Year Built Price in $ $/Units
Jun-17 W Flats 7200 Wallace Rd Charlotte 247 1986 / 2008 19,750,000.00 79,960
Jun-17 Matthews Pointe 1700 Chambers Dr Matthews 100 1987 10,900,000.00 109,000
Jun-17 Waterford Hills 6219 Waterford Hills Dr Charlotte 270 1996 32,200,000.00 119,259
Jun-17 Mission Matthews Place 2100 Woodway Hills Dr Charlotte 392 1995 44,900,000.00 114,541
Jun-17 Beacon Hill 1825 Beacon Ridge Rd Charlotte 349 1986 29,600,000.00 84,814
Jun-17 Crescent Avenue Apartments 2611 Crescent Ln Gastonia 54 1969 1,100,000.00 20,370
Jun-17 Belle Haven Apartments 9005 Post Canyon Ln Charlotte 176 2014 28,250,000.00 160,511
Jun-17 Market Place 1333 Coronet Ct Rock Hill 68 5,950,000.00 87,500
Jun-17 Pressley Ridge 1210 Pressley Rd Charlotte 504 1969 19,623,000.00 38,935
Jun-17 1408 Duhart 1408 Duhart Ave Gastonia 51 1983 3,150,000.00 61,765
Jun-17 Gateway At Rock Hill 835 Sebring Dr Rock Hill 312 2016 41,250,000.00 132,212
May-17 Woodscape 5612 Farm Pond Ln Charlotte 80 1982 2,750,000.00 34,375
May-17 Palmetto Place 6000 Palmetto Pl Fort Mill 184 1997 19,400,000.00 105,435
May-17 Grand Reserve at Pavilion II 1801 Willow Haven Ln Charlotte 120 2000 13,779,408.50 114,828
May-17 Grand Reserve at Pavilion I 1801 Willow Haven Ln Charlotte 288 2000 33,070,580.40 114,828
Mar-17 The Hamptons 8415 University Station Cir Charlotte 180 1995 / 2012 21,250,000.00 118,056
Mar-17 Morehead West Apartments 1932 W Morehead St Charlotte 211 2015 31,500,000.00 149,289
Mar-17 Wesley Village Apartments 2715 Wet Stone Way Charlotte 301 2009 57,200,000.00 190,033
Mar-17 Bridges at Quail Hollow 7561 Quail Meadow Ln Charlotte 90 1981 / 2004 10,750,000.00 119,444
Feb-17 Bramar Gardens 3115 Southwest Blvd Charlotte 137 1968 1,850,000.00 13,504
Feb-17 Stone Ridge 8940 Camden Creek Ln Charlotte 318 2001 43,200,000.00 135,849
Feb-17 Whitehall Estates 2500 Whitehall Estates Dr Charlotte 252 1996 30,900,000.00 122,619
Feb-17 The Timbers 3317 Magnolia Hill Dr Charlotte 341 1988 17,500,000.00 51,320
Feb-17 Landmark At Monaco Gardens 9201 Glenwater Dr Charlotte 276 1990 / 2014 29,750,000.00 107,790
Jan-17 Rock Creek at Ballantyne Commons
7810 Spindletop Pl Charlotte 330 1996 / 2015 54,549,995.00 165,303
Jan-17 Vinoy At Innovation Park 8108 Vinoy Blvd Charlotte 356 2005 52,750,000.00 148,174
Jan-17 Legacy Matthews 1701 Gander Cove Ln Matthews 288 1988 29,500,064.00 102,431
Jan-17 Arbor Steele Creek 12235 Stone Arbor Way Charlotte 384 2004 46,080,000.00 120,000
Jan-17 Shadow Creek Apartments 4132 Gardner Ridge Dr Gastonia 50 1991 2,350,000.00 47,000
Jan-17 Bella Vista 2442 Chartes Dr Gastonia 250 1974 13,190,014.50 52,760
RECENT SALES
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 5www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
DOWNTOWN CHARLOTTE
GREATER CHARLOTTE
Downtown Charlotte
PIPELINE MAP
20
21
31
41
5161
23
33
4353
63
25
35
45
55
27
37
47
57
29
39
4959
22
32
42
52
62
24
34
44
54
26
36
46
56
28
38
48
58
30
40
50
60
Key
Lease-Up
Under Construction
Proposed
1
11
5
15
3
13
7
17
9
19
2
12
6
16
4
14
8
18
10
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 6www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
PIPELINE DETAIL
# Name Status Owner Address Market UnitsLease Up1 Encore Southpark Lease Up Simpson Property Group 6205 Morrison Blvd Barclay Downs MF 2802 Legacy Concord Lease Up Goldberg Companies, Inc. 5020 Avent Dr NW Cabarrus Country Club MF 3483 Solis Southline Lease Up Pappas Properties, LLC 2520 South Blvd Dilworth MF 3004 Alta Berewick Lease Up Wood Partners 7015 Skye Bridge Way Dixie-Berryhill MF 2665 The Gibson Lease Up Pollack Shores Real Estate Group 1000 Central Ave Elizabeth MF 2506 The Langston Lease Up White Edward A 1925 E 7th St Elizabeth MF 917 Sovereign at Belgate Lease Up Davis Development 6008 Lewis St Mineral Springs MF 2668 Woodfield Northlake Lease Up Woodfield Investments 8524 Mason Andrew Way Northlake MF 3109 Silver Collection at The Park Lease Up Silver Companies 13816 Boren St Outer Huntersville/Cornel 33210 Brookson Residential Flats Lease Up LIV Development, LLC 13428 Bryton Gap Blvd Outer Huntersville/Cornel 29611 The Residence at Tailrace
MarinaLease Up Arnold Companies 1001 Marina Village Dr Outlying Gaston County MF 192
12 The Villas at Regal Manor Lease Up Carolina Capital Communities 1069 Chateau Crossing Dr Outlying York County MF 9613 Fox Hunt Farms Apartments Lease Up WEINSTEIN DEVELOPMENT
COMPANY355 Amistead Ave Outlying York County MF 165
14 One305 Central Lease Up TriBridge Residential 1305 Central Ave Plaza Midwood MF 20215 Horizons at Steele Creek Lease Up The Carroll Companies 10615 Beckstone Dr Steele Creek MF 9616 Copus 1 Indian Trail Lease Up Bonterra Builders, LLC 1021 Glenn Valley Ln Union County MF 20417 SkyHouse Uptown - Tower II Lease Up Grubb Properties 601 N Tryon St Uptown Charlotte MF 33618 Museum Tower Apartments Lease Up Wells Fargo & Company 525 S Church St Uptown Charlotte MF 39419 Ascent Uptown Lease Up Greystar Real Estate Partners 225 S Poplar St Uptown Charlotte MF 300
Units 4,724
Under Construction20 9200 University City Blvd Under Construction Haven Campus Communities 9200 University City Blvd Back Creek Church Road
MF332
21 District South Under Construction Flournoy Companies 12600 District South Dr Ballantyne MF 39722 Allen Street Housing Under Construction St Paul Baptist Church Inc (TE) 1301-1321 Allen St Belmont MF 11223 The Lofts at Hawthorne Mill Under Construction Clachan Properties LLC 1101 Hawthorne Ln Belmont MF 15024 Laurel View Under Construction The Gateway Companies 2535 Laurelview Dr NW Cabarrus Country Club MF 17425 Seasons at Poplar Tent Under Construction Southwood Realty Company 4735 Poplar Tent Rd Cabarrus Country Club MF 26426 Alta Prosperity Village Under Construction Pr Ii Of Wood Prosperity Apartmen 7304 Brice Knoll Ln Davis Lake-Eastfield MF 29227 Prosperity Church Apartments Under Construction Wood Partners 2934 Ridge Rd Davis Lake-Eastfield MF 29228 Harding Place Under Construction Armada Hoffler Properties, Inc. 1301 Harding Pl Dilworth MF 25529 The Lincoln at Dilworth Under Construction Lincoln Property Company 905 Kenilworth Ave Dilworth MF 37930 Solis Berewick Under Construction Pappas Properties, LLC 4913 Dixie River Rd Dixie-Berryhill MF 27531 The Stevenson Apartments Under Construction Charlotte-Mecklenburg Housing
Partnership, Inc.1445 Samuel St Double Oaks MF 130
32 Capital Crossing at Whitehall Under Construction TWO Capital Partners, LLC 9214 Christy Joy Dr Griers Fork MF 27133 Blu at Northline Under Construction Panorama Holdings 2508 April Yixuan Ln Hidden Valley MF 37634 Cadence Music Factory Under Construction ARK Group 606 NC Music Factory
BlvdLockwood MF 205
35 The Abbey Under Construction Spectrum Companies 1415 Abbey Pl Madison Park MF 26036 Rodden Square Apartments Under Construction Connelly Builders 6520 Mallard Creek Rd Mineral Springs MF 9837 Inspire SouthPark Under Construction Grubb Properties 345 Sharon Township Ln Myers Park MF 36738 Crescent NoDa Under Construction Crescent Communities, LLC 424 E 36th St North Charlotte MF 34439 Whitehall Crossing Under Construction MPV Properties, LLC 2600 W Arrowood Rd Olde Whitehall MF 9640 Parkwood Station Under Construction Parkwood Residences Llc 1708 N Brevard St Optimist Park MF 30941 Concord Ridge Apartments -
Phase IIUnder Construction Concord Ridge Apartments, LLC 3635 Coventry Commons
Ave SWOutlying Cabarrus County 428
42 Station at Poplar Tent Under Construction Tynes Development 50 Poplar Station Cir Outlying Cabarrus County 31243 Fox Hunt Farms Apartments -
Phase IIUnder Construction WEINSTEIN DEVELOPMENT
COMPANY355-356 Amistead Ave Outlying York County MF 111
44 Lakepointe Ridge Under Construction Redwood Living 4376 Charlotte Hwy Outlying York County MF 146
Over 70 Multifamily Developments Proposed for the Charlotte area.
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 7www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
WE CAN HELPAs an investor in multifamily properties, you need a firm that provides experience, broad reach and the ability to market an asset no matter how challenging the economic environment. You need a team that specializes in your market you need The East Region Multifamily Advisory Group.
Colliers International has one of the largest and most experienced teams in the industry, strategically located in key markets throughout North America. Our combination of market dominance, expertise, and singular focus, make us uniquely successful in helping our clients achieve their disposition objectives.
How are we able to bring together the skills and tools necessary to complete challenging assignments? Our East Region Multifamily Advisory Group is connected by purpose and focus. Our team is dedicated to sharing information on market opportunities, capital sources and buyers/sellers to achieve the best results for our clients.
45 Evolve at Tega Cay Under Construction Evolve Companies 3050 Old Farm Rd Outlying York County MF 26046 Revere at Tega Cay Under Construction Gross Residential 260 N Revere Cv Outlying York County MF 33647 Arbors at Fort Mill - Phase II Under Construction Berkley Hall Construction, LLC 700 Stockbridge Dr Outlying York County MF 12048 Revere at Lake Wylie - Phase II Under Construction Gross Residential 1001 Wylie Springs Cir Outlying York County MF 14449 CampusWorks - Plaza Midwood Under Construction The Carlyle Group 1205 Central Ave Plaza Midwood MF 34950 One 305 Central - Phase II Under Construction TriBridge Residential 1305 Central Ave Plaza Midwood MF 7951 Midwood Station Under Construction DPJ Residential 2007 Central Ave Plaza Midwood MF 9752 The Links at Rea Farms Under Construction Lincoln Harris 11500 Providence Rd Providence Crossing MF 45553 Crescent Providence Farm Under Construction Bahakel Communications 11355 Providence Rd Providence Estates East M 39454 The Overture at Cotswold Under Construction Greystar Real Estate Partners 4640 Randolph Rd Providence Park MF 15855 Bainbridge South End Under Construction The Bainbridge Companies 175 Poindexter Dr Sedgefield MF 20056 Horizons at Steele Creek -
Phase IIUnder Construction The Carroll Companies 10615 Beckstone Dr Steele Creek MF 192
57 Tenth Street Apartments and Deck
Under Construction Levine Properties, Inc. 707 N Brevard St Uptown Charlotte MF 200
58 Crescent Stonewall Station Under Construction Crescent Communities, LLC 300 E Stonewall St Uptown Charlotte MF 45959 Montage Under Construction The Walsh Group 650 E Stonewall St Uptown Charlotte MF 30260 Centric Gateway Under Construction Dominion Realty Partners, LLC 1010 W Trade St Uptown Charlotte MF 29761 Uptown 550 Under Construction Northwood Ravin 550 E Stonewall St Uptown Charlotte MF 42162 West Morehead Lofts Under Construction ArchCo Residential 1331 W Morehead St Wesley Heights MF 28763 The Lowrie Under Construction Trinity Partners 12135 N Community House
RdWhiteoak MF 245
Units 11,370
Total Units 16,094
# Name Status Owner Address Market UnitsUnder Construction
PIPELINE DETAIL, continued
COLLIERS INTERNATIONAL MULTIFAMILY ADVISORY GROUP P. 8www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
OUR PROVEN TRACK RECORDRecent Closings
WHO WE AREOne of the largest and most
experienced teams of multifamily
specialists in the industry
Units sold since 2011
33,500MORE THAN
Group gross transaction value in since 2011
$2.3B
Dedicated Multifamily Professionals & Advisors
50MORE THAN
Expansive geographic footprint
20COVERING OVER
STATES
Oaktree ApartmentsDurham, NCUnits: 24
Sommerset PlaceRaleigh, NCUnits: 144
Falcon Pointe ApartmentsWinston Salem, NCUnits: 120
Crest at ElonElon, NCUnits: 42
Arbor TownhomesGreensboro, NCUnits: 150
Arlington West ApartmentsJacksonville, NCUnits: 324
Eagle PointDurham, NCUnits: 323
Teal PointCharlotte, NCUnits: 216
Taylor Place ApartmentsChocowinity, NCUnits: 40
Wolf Creek ApartmentsRaleigh, NCUnits: 385
Oakview TerraceHigh Point, NCUnits: 150
Geneva Park ApartmentsCary, NCUnits: 248
Hidden LakesGreensboro, NCUnits: 483
Land SaleCharlotte, NCAcres: 25.8
Fiddlers CreekWinston-Salem, NCUnits: 160
www.ColliersMultifamilyEast.com
To learn more, scan this with a QR code reader or visit:
Will MathewsPRINCIPAL | EAST REGION
INSTITUTIONAL CLIENT GROUP
[email protected] +1 404 877 9285
Brooks ColquittASSOCIATE | EAST REGION
CAROLINA’S MARKET SPECIALIST
[email protected] +1 704 409 9933
AT YOUR SERVICE
Payton HerschbergerASSOCIATE | EAST REGION
[email protected] +1 404 574 1061
Max KemetherASSOCIATE | EAST REGION
[email protected] +1 404 978 2337