Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning...
-
Upload
sara-bruce -
Category
Documents
-
view
215 -
download
1
Transcript of Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning...
![Page 1: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure
Reid EwingDept. of City and Metropolitan Planning
University of Utah
![Page 2: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
![Page 3: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
www.support.smartgrowthamerica.org/growing_cooler
![Page 4: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
Climate Change Is the Ultimate Green Issue
![Page 5: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
Chapter 3
![Page 6: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
![Page 7: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
Climate Change Impacts at 2 to 3°C
More than 1/3 of species at risk of extinction (corals, polar bears…)
Amazon rainforest & Great Lakes ecosystem at risk of collapse
Hundreds of millions displaced from coastal areas, at risk of hunger
Partial deglaciation of Greenland Ice Sheet expected to begin: sea level to increase 4-6 meters over centuries to millennia
![Page 8: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
Global Warming Fingerprints
Hurricanes Ophelia, Nate, and Maria were among 15 hurricanes that raged across the
Atlantic, Gulf of Mexico, and
Caribbean in 2005.
![Page 9: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
Global Warming Fingerprints
![Page 10: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
Global Warming Fingerprints
J. Madsen and E. Figdor, When It Rains, It Pours: Global Warming and the Rising Frequency of Extreme Precipitation in the United States, Environment America Research & Policy Center, December 2007.http://www.environmentamerica.org/uploads/oy/ws/oywshWAwZy-EXPsabQKd4A/When-It-Rains-It-Pours----US---WEB.pdf
![Page 11: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
Energy Bill: CAFE & -10% Fuel GHG by 2025
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2005
= 1
00%
Source: S. Winkelman based on EIA AEO 2008 (revised), HR6 and sources cited in Growing Cooler .
CO2
2020 New 35 MPG
Fuel GHG:-10%
CO2 Target
1990
![Page 12: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
VMT Growth to Wipe Out Energy Bill Savings
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
120%
130%
140%
150%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2005
= 1
00%
Source: S. Winkelman based on EIA AEO 2008 (revised), HR6 and sources cited in Growing Cooler .
CO2
2020 New 35 MPG
VMT
CO2 Target
1990
Fuel GHG:-10%
![Page 13: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
Chapter 4
![Page 14: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
Main Questions Addressed
1. What reduction in vehicle miles traveled (VMT) is possible in the United States with compact development rather than continuing urban sprawl?
2. What reduction in CO2 emissions will accompany such a reduction in VMT?
3. What policy changes will be required to shift the dominant land development pattern from sprawl to compact development?
![Page 15: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
Portland vs. Raleigh
![Page 16: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
35% Less VMT with Compact Development
14.7
21.5 22.020.3
22.919.9
15.2
26.3
33.2
28.9 29.2
33.4
28.9
22.8
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
New Y
ork,
NY
Provid
ence
, RI
San F
ranc
isco,
CA
Honol
ulu, H
I
Bosto
n, M
A
Portla
nd, O
R
New O
rlean
s, LA
Dallas
-For
t Wor
th-,
TX
Knoxv
ille, T
N
Green
ville
--Spa
rtanb
urg,
SC
Atlant
a, G
A
Raleig
h--D
urha
m, N
C
Green
sbor
o--W
inston
-Sal
em, N
C
Rivers
ide--S
an B
erna
rdino
, CA
VM
T p
er C
apit
a
![Page 17: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
Southern Village (40% lower)
![Page 18: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
Answer to 1st Question
20-40% VMT Reduction for Each Increment of Compact
Development
![Page 19: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
Doing the Math through 2050
60-90% Compactx
67% New Developmentx
30% VMT Reduction=
12-18% Reduction in Metropolitan VMT
![Page 20: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
Add Smart Growth -15% VMT 2030 CO2 is 14% below 1990
40%50%60%
70%80%90%
100%
110%120%130%140%
150%160%170%
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
2005
= 1
00%
Source: S. Winkelman based on EIA AEO 2008 (revised), HR6, stock model calculations and sources cited in Growing Cooler .
CO2
VMT:-15%
CO2 Target
1990
2030 New 50 MPG
Fuel GHG:-20%
![Page 21: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
Chapter 8
![Page 22: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
What Would It Take?
What would it take to reach the 2030 CO2 reduction target of 33 percent below 1990 levels?
Will compact development with supportive transportation policies be enough?
If not, how much VMT reduction must be achieved through pricing, and what price changes would be required?
![Page 23: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
Urban VMT Reduction
Elasticities of VMT with Respect to Policy Variables
Change in Annual Growth Rates of Policy Variables (% above/below Trend)
Effect on Annual VMT Growth Rate (% below Trend)
Population density –0.30 1 –7.7%Highway lane miles 0.55 –1 –11.4%Transit revenue miles –0.06 2.5 –4.6%Real fuel price –0.17 2.7 –14.4%
![Page 24: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
Compact Development+
Transit +
Road Pricing-
Highway Expansion=
38% VMT reduction by 2030
![Page 25: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
No Ballot Measure Can Be Considered Green If It
Includes a Lot of New Money for Highways
![Page 26: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
1995 Report on Induced Travel (with Minority View)
![Page 27: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
Short-Term Supply and Demand
![Page 28: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
Short-Term Increases in Traffic
New Trips
More Distant Destinations
Mode Shifts
Route Shifts*
* Most important effect according to Dowling et al., 1994
![Page 29: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
Long-Term Supply and Demand
![Page 30: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
Long-Term Increases in Traffic
Higher Car Ownership
Reduced Transit Service
Activity Location Shifts*
* Most important effect according to Cervero, 2002
![Page 31: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Growth of Traffic Over Time
![Page 32: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
Cervero’s Bottom Lines
“…the preponderance of research suggests that induced-demand effects are significant, with an appreciable share of added capacity being absorbed by increases in traffic.”
“All that can be said with certainty is that induced-demand effects exist … and they accumulate over time.”
![Page 33: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
Average Elasticities
Facility-Specific Studies
Areawide Studies
Short-Term 0 0.4
Medium-Term 0.27 NA
Long-Term 0.63 0.73
![Page 34: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
No Transit Measure Can Be Considered Green Unless It Is Coupled with Transit-Oriented
Development
![Page 35: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
What is TOD?
TOD is widely defined as compact, mixed-use development near transit facilities with high-quality walking environments, not necessarily at the expense of automobile access.
![Page 36: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
More Than 100 TODs in USA
![Page 37: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
High Mode Shares for TOD Residents
![Page 38: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
Introducing the 3Ds
![Page 39: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
Density
![Page 40: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
33 Units per Acre (gross)
![Page 41: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
15 Units per Acre
![Page 42: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
Diversity
![Page 43: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
Seamless Pattern
![Page 44: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
Design
![Page 45: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
Simple Correlations with Design Variables
![Page 46: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
Pedestrian-Friendly Design
![Page 47: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
Pedestrian-Friendly Design
![Page 48: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
Effect of Density – Bay Area Rail
![Page 49: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
Effect of Diversity
![Page 50: Key Components of a Green Transportation Measure Reid Ewing Dept. of City and Metropolitan Planning University of Utah.](https://reader030.fdocuments.net/reader030/viewer/2022032607/56649ec75503460f94bd2c6f/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
Effect of Design