KERANGKA EKONOMI MAKRO TAHUN 2019 6.3 PERCEPATAN PENGENTASAN KEMISKINAN DAN PENGURANGAN KESENJANGAN

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Transcript of KERANGKA EKONOMI MAKRO TAHUN 2019 6.3 PERCEPATAN PENGENTASAN KEMISKINAN DAN PENGURANGAN KESENJANGAN

  • KERANGKA EKONOMI MAKRO

    DAN POKOK-POKOK KEBIJAKAN FISKAL

    TAHUN 2019

  • i

    DAFTAR ISI

    DAFTAR ISI .......................................................................................................................................... I

    DAFTAR TABEL ................................................................................................................................. III

    DAFTAR GRAFIK ................................................................................................................................ V

    DAFTAR GAMBAR ............................................................................................................................ VII

    DAFTAR BOKS ................................................................................................................................... IX

    RINGKASAN EKSEKUTIF ................................................................................................................... 1

    BAB I PENDAHULUAN ....................................................................................................................... 7

    BAB II PERKEMBANGAN PEREKONOMIAN ................................................................................... 19

    2.1 PERKEMBANGAN EKONOMI GLOBAL ................................................................................................................ 20 2.1.1 Prospek Perekonomian Global 2018 dan Proyeksi 2019 .................................................................... 23 2.1.2 Likuiditas Global .............................................................................................................................. 24 2.1.3 Harga Komoditas Global .................................................................................................................. 25

    2.2 PERKEMBANGAN PEREKONOMIAN DOMESTIK..................................................................................................... 26 2.2.1 Stabilitas Ekonomi ........................................................................................................................... 26 2.2.2 Perkembangan Moneter dan Pasar Keuangan .................................................................................. 28 2.2.3 Perkembangan Ekonomi Domestik ................................................................................................... 31 2.2.4 Neraca Pembayaran ........................................................................................................................ 35

    2.3 PROYEKSI PEREKONOMIAN DOMESTIK 2018...................................................................................................... 37

    BAB III SASARAN, TANTANGAN, DAN ARAH KEBIJAKAN EKONOMI ......................................... 39

    3.1 SASARAN PEMBANGUNAN ............................................................................................................................. 39 3.2 TANTANGAN PEMBANGUNAN ........................................................................................................................ 41

    3.2.1 Akselerasi Investasi dan Perbaikan Daya Saing untuk Pertumbuhan Ekonomi yang Lebih Tinggi ....... 41 3.2.2 Kemiskinan dan Kesenjangan ........................................................................................................... 43 3.2.3 Pengangguran dan Produktivitas ..................................................................................................... 46 3.2.4 Pengarusutamaan Gender ............................................................................................................... 49 3.2.5 Stunting dan Kualitas Sumber Daya Manusia ................................................................................... 52 3.2.6 Risiko dan Pembiayaan Dampak Bencana Alam ............................................................................... 54

    3.3 ARAH KEBIJAKAN EKONOMI ........................................................................................................................... 55 3.4 OUTLOOK ASUMSI DASAR EKONOMI MAKRO TAHUN 2019 .................................................................................. 57

    3.4.1 Pertumbuhan Ekonomi .................................................................................................................... 57 3.4.2 Laju Inflasi ....................................................................................................................................... 62 3.4.3 Tingkat Suku Bunga SPN 3 Bulan ...................................................................................................... 63 3.4.4 Nilai Tukar Rupiah ........................................................................................................................... 64 3.4.5 Harga Minyak Mentah Indonesia (ICP) ............................................................................................. 65 3.4.6 Lifting Minyak dan Gas Bumi............................................................................................................ 65

    BAB IV KERANGKA KEBIJAKAN FISKAL JANGKA MENENGAH TAHUN 2018-2022 .................. 69

    4.1 PROYEKSI EKONOMI MAKRO JANGKA MENENGAH............................................................................................... 69 4.2 TANTANGAN KEBIJAKAN FISKAL JANGKA MENENGAH ........................................................................................... 71 4.3 PENGUATAN FUNGSI ALOKASI, DISTRIBUSI, DAN STABILISASI .................................................................................. 72

    4.3.1 Pengendalian Defisit ........................................................................................................................ 73 4.3.2 Menjaga Rasio Utang dalam Batas Aman ........................................................................................ 73 4.3.3 Mendorong Keseimbangan Primer Menuju Positif ............................................................................ 74 4.3.4 Penguatan Kualitas Belanja untuk Menjaga Stabilitas Politik, Ekonomi, Sosial Budaya, Pertahanan, dan Keamanan ......................................................................................................................................... 74

    4.4 ARAH DAN STRATEGI KEBIJAKAN FISKAL JANGKA MENENGAH ................................................................................. 75

  • ii

    BAB V POKOK–POKOK KEBIJAKAN FISKAL TAHUN 2019 ........................................................... 79

    5.1 ARAH DAN STRATEGI KEBIJAKAN MAKRO FISKAL 2019 ......................................................................................... 79 5.2 KEBIJAKAN EKSPANSIF YANG TERARAH DAN TERUKUR ........................................................................................... 81 5.3 OPTIMALISASI PENDAPATAN NEGARA............................................................................................................... 84

    5.3.1 Penerimaan Perpajakan ................................................................................................................... 85 5.3.2 Penerimaan Negara Bukan Pajak ..................................................................................................... 92 5.3.3 Penerimaan Hibah ......................................................................................................................... 106

    5.4 PENINGKATAN KUALITAS BELANJA NEGARA ..................................................................................................... 107 5.4.1 Belanja Pemerintah Pusat .............................................................................................................. 109 5.4.2 Bantuan Sosial dan Subsidi ............................................................................................................ 115 5.4.3 Transfer ke Daerah dan Dana Desa ................................................................................................ 125

    5.5 PEMBIAYAAN ANGGARAN ........................................................................................................................... 131 5.5.1 Pembiayaan Utang ........................................................................................................................ 133 5.5.2 Pembiayaan Investasi .................................................................................................................... 135 5.5.3 Pemberian Pinjaman ...................................................................................................................... 139 5.5.4 Kewajiban Penjaminan .................................................................................................................. 139 5.5.5 Pembiayaan Lainnya ...................................................................................................................... 139 5.5.6 Pembiayaan Kreatif (Creative Financing) ........................................................................................ 139

    BAB VI PENGUATAN ANGGARAN PRIORITAS DAN ISU STRATEGIS ........................................ 155

    6.1 PENGUATAN SUMBER DAYA MANUSIA ........................................................................................................... 155 6.1.1 Pendidikan..................................................................................................................................... 155 6.1.2 Kesehatan ..................................................................................................................................... 160

    6.2 AKSELERASI PEMBANGUNAN INFRASTRUKTUR ..................