José Miguel Benavente - International Monetary Fund · José Miguel Benavente Innovation and...
Transcript of José Miguel Benavente - International Monetary Fund · José Miguel Benavente Innovation and...
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José Miguel Benavente
Innovation and Competitiveness Division
Interamerican Development Bank Kuwait, April 2014
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Production diversification as part of a
development strategy. Is not a goal itself;
should be considered as a mean.
15.000
28.000
35.000 FMI: GDPper cápita
(Cifras en dólares ppp., 2011)
Estonia (17.802)
Lituania (15.443)
Argentina (14.838)
Letonia (13.875)
Malasia (11.915)
Singapur (29.743)
Taiwán (29.244)
España (27.542)
N. Zelandia (25.655)
Eslovenia (23.159)
Corea (21.887)
EE. UU. (43.236)
Canadá (35.779)
Hong Kong (35.396)
Finlandia (32.822)
Australia (32.127)
Reino Unido (31.585)
Suecia (31.264)
Francia (30.150)
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Today, more advanced Latin American
countries are concentrated on the “inspiration”
side of growth rather than on the
“perspiration” side.
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The “inspiration” side is the weakest bit of the
LA countries.
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Chile as a interesting case of middle income
tramp.
100
105
110
115
120
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135
140
1986
Q1
1987
Q4
1989
Q3
1991
Q2
1993
Q1
1994
Q4
1996
Q3
1998
Q2
2000
Q1
2001
Q4
2003
Q3
2005
Q2
TFP (1986=100)
Fuentes, Gredig and Larraín (2011)
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Again, PTF as a major problem for LA
countries growth strategy.
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This pattern is consistent with a less complex
production pattern.
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Macroeconomy
Markets Effciciency
Infraestructure
Institututions
Business Sophistifaction
TPreparación tecnológica
Ed. Superior y Capacitación
Innovación
Salud y Ed. Primaria
Macroeconomy
Market´s Efficiency
Infraestructure
Institutions
Business Sophistication
Technological Preparation
Tertiary Education and Trainning
Innovation
Helth and Primary Education
WEF Indices also consistent with a lag in the
“inspiration” side.
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High heterogeneity among sectors.
Boletin Productividad (UAI, 2013)
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High heterogeneity among firms inside the
same sector.
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Based on the LA experience, things that should
be considered while reshaping the productive
strategy (above the obvious ones)
Market Size
matters
Natural Resources Endowment
matters
Distance to International Markets
matters
Institutions also
matters
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There is no silver bullet kind of intervention
Need a Framework that guides both analysis
and interventions
Market Failure Argument
works
Horizontal versus Vertical Interventions
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Public Inputs
Market Interventions
Horizontal Vertical Interventions
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Public Inputs
Market Interventions
Horizontal Vertical Interventions
Property Rights
Protection
R&D Tax Credit
Fitosanitary
Controls
Tourism Tax
Exemptions
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Horizontal Interventions as a first phase.
Vertical ones as a second phase but have to be
very careful in State Failures.
Time Inconsistency
Agency Problem
Public Capture
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Institutions Matters (and a lot)
Strategy
Policy Design
Policy Implementation
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Institutional Design should avoid State Failures
Separation between design and policy
execution
Only one responsible of the policy design
(CEO)
Independent strategic agency
Execution agencies with a
private/academic/public boards
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Science and technology are not rich countries
hobbies. They have (partly) explained why these
countries are developed.
Theoretical (Romer, 1990; Aghion y Howitt, 1992) and empirical works
(Grilliches, 1995, Hall y Jones, 1999, Rouvinen, 2002) suggest that
causality goes from efforts in generating new ideas to productivity
enhancements and not the reverse.
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R&D return are almost twice as capital expansion ones (Lederman y
Maloney, 2003; Hall, Mairesse y Mohnen, 2009).
However, they have a negative impact on production line's
productivity (Goto y Suzuki, 1989; Benavente, De Gergorio y Nuñez,
2005)
Firms efforts aimed at the development of new
products and processes (innovations) normally
generates negative short-run impacts on
productivity.
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Learning by exporting phenomena rather than export self selection
(Benavente, Bravo y González, 2014)
However, both have positive impacts on productivity (Bernard y Jensen,
2004; Alvarez y Lopez, 2005)
For small domestic markets countries,
innovations and R&D efforts seems to be the
result of overseas competitions rather than a
corporate decision.
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Process innovation have a positive net effect on employment at a firm level
(Harrison, Jaumandreu, Mairesse y Peters, 2008; Mohnen, 2011;
Benavente y Lautercbach, 2005).
Ans may also have on income distribution (.. In progress)
And innovation has also other interesting
effects.
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Productive diversification as part of a
development strategy.
No single silver bullet policy rather than a
systemic and dynamic view.
Institutions are - sometimes not considered,
very relevant issues. But difficult in
implementing.
Trade offs between visibility and impact.
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