J Street Volume 300

7/25/2019 J Street Volume 300

1/10

ex

rketView

1

mpanyUpdate 2

undthe

nomy 3

wledgeCorner 3

tualFund 4

mmodityCorner 5

exCorner 6

ortCard 7

rtTermCallStatus 8

or&Contributor

rgi Shah

cialContributors

eshTrivedi

tyaNahar

suggestions,feedback

queries

[email protected]

Market View

Fear of prolonged uncertainties hit the market

At last the verdict of British people is out and it is not as per the expectations of the world mar

capital market including big investment bankers economists analysts were all positive about the

verdict. The market is shocked with final outcome. Now everyone is assessing the impact of t

We are trying to analyze the impact of this exit of Britain from European Union.

1. After almost 45 years of having a union of 28 countries called European Union, one major

Britain has opted to leave the Union. The Union was formed to create one entity so far as bu

trades, free access and policies are concerned. Any business person sitting anywhere in

can trade without any statutory hurdles in the whole Europe, creating an advantage of havin

market.2. The leave vote means The Great Britain will not remain as a member of European Union

lose all the above advantages. London is a financial hub for majority of transatlantic busine

the business of Europe with Asia and Far East. Now, if The Britain comes out of EU, other c

of EU will not allow UK to enjoy this advantage. This is the great worry everyone is ha

present.

3. The process of leaving of The EU is very long and takes at least two years for actual exit

case there is reasonable time for companies having large exposure to Europe and Britain to

their strategies.

Considering the above facts, we have to assess the impact of this exit on The Indian Capital Ma

the big IT companies are having reasonably good European exposure through Britain. Majority oand Jewelry exporters are also having their main export business to Europe through London

companies are having manufacturing facilities in UK having total access to the whole Europe. N

significant currency devaluation, the permutations and combinations of European business has c

dramatically. Our RBI Governor, Finance Minister and many analysts are of the view that India i

enough to absorb this shock. But the question arises whether the corporate India is insulated en

absorb this shock? It is natural that many companies will be impacted going forward but at th

time it is also important that how they realign their strategies and work in new environment to m

the adverse impact of the Brexit. Many peripheral countries are thinking to leave The EU will g

vated because of this verdict. This is the main threat for the capital market as it creates uncertain

long time.

In light of the above discussion, the chances of further fall is high but the expectation of good m

and the introduction of GST are the two events which can act as a floor for this downfall. Tec

there is a cluster of supports around 7900-7700 which can provide a strong support to the marke

K a m a l J h a v e r i

M D - J h a v e r i S e c u r i t i e s

1 -

300June,2016


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2-

Company Basics

E Code 532938

E Symbol CAPF

UITY ( in Cr.) 90.98

T.CAP ( in Cr.) 149.74

Financial Basics

FV () 10.00

EPS () (TTM) 17.2

P/E (x) (TTM) 31.1

P/BV (x) (TTM) 181.88

BETA 1.31

RONW (%) 8.38

Share Holding Pattern

Holder's Name % Holdin

Foreign 8.37

Institutions 9.91

Promoters 65.2

Non. Promoters 1.43

Public & Others 15.09

Govt Holding 0.00

mpany Overview

pital First (CAPF) is the retail financing NBFC formed in 2012 as a result of a management buyoutting NBFC. Post Mr. Vaidyanathan taking reigns in FY11 and revamping the business model, the who

ding entity was catapulted to grow into a strong retail NBFC. CAPF lays greater thrust on retail, SMolesale segments; within retail CAPF offers LAP, two-wheelers and consumer durable loans. Catering

derserved traditional market, CAPF has carved its own niche in the MSME and two-wheelers segment sed to replicate success on the lines of Bajaj Finance in the consumer finance market.

estment rational

ong AUM growth with the shift towards retail assets

L has been able to manage AUM (assets under management) CAGR of 44% over FY11-FY15 on the backed strategy, strong processes, superior financing skills, strong promoter and the ability to raise funds onail AUM posted 90% CAGR over FY11-FY15, whereas corporate

L emerging as a specialized player in financing MSMEs

L emerging as a specialized player in financing MSMEs by offering different products for their various

needs. Capital First has a comprehensive product suite to meet the multiple financial needs of its custodate, the Company has financed more than 1.4 million customers, including more than 6,00,000 M

Company provides finance to its customers with the help of contemporary scoring solutionhisticated technology. The Company, through its extensive reach, provides essential debt capital to MSM

uick, affordable and convenient manner.

versified loan mix translating into robust AUMs

ording to the needs of the customers, CAPF has carved its own niche in the under-presented tradrket through its extensive reach. With greater focus on MSME, two wheelers and customer finance sePF caters to the under-served market characterized.

uation : CAPITAL FIRST is t rading at 552. We recommend Accumulate with target price of 660 ,

k 30xFY18E EPS of 22.The stock current ly trades at 30x of FY16E, 27.93xof FY17E and 22.98x of FY18E.

mpany Update : Capital First Ltd.

300June,2016


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3-

eekly Market Recap :

The Indian government on Monday, 20 June 2016, announced liberalization of foreign direct investment (FDI) rviation, pharmaceutical, defence, trading in food products and single brand retail trading.

Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan said on Wednesday, 22 June 2016, that the cleaning up of bank bheets and the restoration of credit growth are vital and related elements in the growth agenda.

The outcome of a British referendum on Friday, 24 June 2016 showed that the UK has voted to leave the European EU) in a historic referendum dubbed "Brexit". Britain voted to leave the European Union in a hotly fought referen

arket Eye Week ahead :

The market may remain volatile as traders roll over positions in the futures & options (F&O) segment from thmonth June 2016 series to July 2016 series.

Stocks of auto companies will be in focus as companies start unveiling monthly sales volume data for June 20Friday, 1 July 2016.

Among domestic macro economic data, Markit Economics will announce the India Manufacturing PMI for June

Friday, 1 July 2016.The European Central Bank (ECB) starts its three-day Forum on Central Banking in Sintra, Portugal on Monday,

016. Speakers include ECB President Mario Draghi, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen and Bank of England GoMark Carney.

Events / Factors to Watch

Thu: F&O expiry of the derivatives contracts For the month of June 2016

Fri: Auto sales data for the month of June, India Manufacturing PMI for June 2016

Pass-Through Security

A pool of fixed-income securities backed by a package of assets. A servicing intermediary collects the monthly payments fromnd, after deducting a fee, remits or passes them through to the holders of the pass-through security. It is also knowpass-through certificate" or "pay-through security."

Pass-through securities are much like bonds. Most offer semi-annual or monthly income, and this payment frequency enhan

ompounding effects of reinvestment.

round The World

300June,2016

owledge Corner :


4/10

utual Fund Corner

4-

Source : - www.valueresearchonlin

nd Name

heme Name Franklin India Balanced Fund

C Franklin Templeton Asset Management India

pe Equity-oriented

egory Open-ended and Hybrid

nch Date December 1999

nd Manager Sachin Padwal-Desai & Umesh Sharma

Assetsn crore )

Rs. 1029.2 crore as on May 31, 2016

Top 10 Sector Break-Ups

Sector Weights Fund

Financial 23

Automobile 7.

Technology 6.

Healthcare 5.

Diversified 4.

Energy 3.

Services3.

Communication 3.

Engineering 2.

Chemicals 2.

Composition (%)

Equity 68

Debt 29

Cash 1

Risk Analysis

Volatility Measures

Standard Deviation 12

Sharpe Ratio 1

Beta 0

R-Squared 0

Alpha 8

tory 2013 2014 2015 2016

(Rs) 58.48 86.00 90.16 94.24

l Return (%) 6.64 47.05 4.85 4.53

VR Balanced 0.38 20.28 7.03 1.63

k (Fund/Category) 14/32 16/57 22/65 9/82

eek High (Rs) 58.51 86.26 94.03 -

Week Low (Rs) 49.55 57.04 85.34 -

Assets (Rs.Cr) 202.27 307.10 759.92 848.42

ense Ratio (%) 2.73 2.90 2.75 -

Fund StyleInvestment StyleGrowth Blend Value

Large

Medi

Sma

300June,2016

nd Performance v/s S&P CNX Nifty

FundCNX Nify

based to 10,000)


5/10

mmodity Corner

5-

DAMENTAL: Bullion prices last week ended with around two and half percent gains while Gold soared to its highest in more than two yein delivered a shock vote to leave the European Union, sending investors scurrying for protection in bullion and other assets perceived In sterling terms, gold delivered double-digit percentage gains to top 1,000 pounds an ounce for the first time in more than three years, rah as 21 percent in early trade, while euro-priced gold rose as much as 13 percent. CME raises COMEX 100 gold futures (GC) initial maulators by 22.2 percent to $6,050 per contract from $4,950. COMEX gold futures volume exceeded 576,850 contracts, their second higrd. This represents 57.7 million ounces worth about $76.3 billion. Britain's vote to leave the European Union forced the resignation of Primed Cameron and dealt the biggest blow to the European project of greater unity since World War Two. The Bank of England said it wouldssary steps to shield Britain's economy from the shock decision, having "undertaken extensive contingency planning" for the vote. Gold don reported surging demand for coins and bars, with some saying stocks were tight, after a shock vote for Britain to leave the European Uncial markets into meltdown and drove the pound lower. Gold sales in London picked up earlier this month after polls first began to suggese campaign had edged into the lead. Gold demand in Asia was tepid this week as prices surged to a more than twoyear high, but purchacted to pick up as Britain's vote to exit the European Union burnishes the metal's safe-haven appeal. Bullion, often perceived as a hedgeomic and financial uncertainty, jumped 8 percent on Friday to its highest since March 2014, as Britons shocked markets by voting to le

pean Union, unleashing turmoil across world financial markets. Physical demand in top consumer China weakened further this week with ascount of $1 per ounce to global prices, which have been rallying for four weeks, not seen as enough to attract buyers. Prices were at am last week. Elsewhere in Asia, premiums were unchanged from last week at 60-80 cents in Singapore, while in Hong Kong prices flippedount from 30-80 cents premiums last week.OMMENDATION : BUY GOLD @ 31000 SL 30200 TGT 31900-32500.BUY SILVER @ 41800 SL 40500 TGT 42800-43500

DAMENTAL : Base metals prices ended with gains on weekly basis as prices found support from a softer dollar and polls suggesting themain in the European Union, soothing concerns about escalating economic uncertainty in the region that could hurt trade. But prices parriday as concerns about economic growth rose after Britain voted to leave the European Union and the dollar soared. Prices were also bolsaker dollar, joined shares and oil in sweeping higher after polls tilted away from a "Brexit" vote on Thursday. While nickel prices hit a six weoncern about top supplier Philippines. Elsewhere, Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen's cautious tone on future rate hikes added to a d in markets. Highlighting the impact that stimulus has had on the Chinese economy, a survey showed business confidence among entrehina has picked up for the first time in more than two years in the second quarter of 2016. The UK vote to leave the EU forced the resigne Minister David Cameron as world stocks headed for one of the biggest slumps on record. The drop in copper erased most of a weekly

had been sparked by a fall in the dollar as expectations grew that the U.S. would delay its next interest rate increase after its economy sturst quarter. The International Lead and Zinc Study Groups (ILZSGs) latest release shows that refined zinc metal consumption has been

n the January-April period, compared with a year ago, at 4.4 million tonnes. Global metal output in January-April has declined by 3.5% froILZSG also said zinc mine production fell by 8.1% due to declines in Australia, India, Ireland, Peru and the US. Production cuts and mine he main reasons for a tighter supply situation in zinc. Highlighting the impact that stimulus has had on the Chinese economy, a surveyness confidence among entrepreneurs in China has picked up for the first time in more than two years in the second quarter of 2016. U.Song lasting manufactured goods fell more than forecast in May, while core orders unexpectedly declined, according to official data showeble goods orders, which include transportation items, fell 2.2% last month, the Commerce Department said, compared to expectations foof 0.5%. adjusted 93.5, from 94.3 in the preceding month.OMMENDATION : BUY COPPER @ 312 SL 305 TGT 322-326. BUY ZINC @ 132 SL 128 TGT 138-144. BUY NICKEL @ 590 SL 570 TSELL ALUMINIUM @ 111 SL 115 TGT 107.50-105. SELL LEAD @ 118 SL 122 TGT 114.50-112.

DAMENTAL : Crudeoil remained supported last week ended with two percent gains lifted by a wave of investor confidence and a weake

es on pared more than two percent gains after Britain's vote to leave the European Union spurred massive risk aversion and a rally in safehe U.S. dollar that threatened to cut short a three-month-long recovery in global oil markets. Meanwhile US crude inventories fell less ted last week, while product inventories were up slight, the US EIA said. Crude inventories dropped 917,000 barrels against the decrbls. It was the fifth consecutive week of drawdowns for crude inventories. Oil prices have risen 80%-90% over the last five months as gloon outages spiked. Commercial crude inventories continued to decline, a regular update from the US EIA showed. The data also showedon contracted again last week, reversing what has been the first increase in three months, seen in the previous seven days. Saudi energyd al-Falih indicated that could resume its role of helping rebalance the market once the global oil downturn abates. Last month, Saudi inuction by 84kbpd to 10.241mbpd, as the Kingdom's output remained near record all-time highs. Russian Energy Ministry expects oil pricecrease in the short term after Britain's vote in favor of leaving the European Union, RIA news agency quoted Russian First Deputy Energyei Texler as saying on Friday. Elsewhere, oil services firm Baker Hughes said in its weekly rig count report that U.S. oil rigs fell by sevenking its first decline in four weeks. The combined oil and gas rig count fell by three to 421. Total U.S. natural gas storage stood at 3.103 trilli19.9% higher than levels at this time a year ago and 21.9% above the five-year average for this time of year. Some traders expect the ov

hrink in the coming months as hot weather boosts demand for gas-powered electricity to run air-conditioning units and production declinher forecasts for the next two weeks are showing cooler weather than previously expected.OMMENDATION : SELL LEAD @ 118 SL 122 TGT 114.50-112.SELL NATURAL GAS @ 185 SL 194 TGT 178-170

BULLION

BASE METALS

ENERGY

300June,2016


6/10

4 -

mmodity Corner

USD/INR

6-

rex Corner

EUR/INR

GBP/INR

JPY/INR

rket Eye Week ahead :

n the past session, pair broke out from the falling channel with a huge positive gap and ended well above the sammore consecutive closes will confirm the bullish breakout that can take of 69. Daily MACD has started inching one. US dollar index is trading at 96 .35, as demand for the safe haven continued with investors remaining un

about the repercussions of Britains decision to leave the EU. US dollar is likely to remain in demand, though furthikes have been written off for the year. We see further appreciation of the US dollar against pound and yen aepreciation of rupee.

Level S2 S1 CP R1 R2 High Low Cl

SD/INR 66.83 67.40 67.83 68.40 68.83 68.25 67.25 67


PY/INR 60.94 63.69 66.34 69.09 71.74 69.00 63.60 66


BP/INR 84.77 88.98 94.70 98.91 104.63 100.43 90.50 93


UR/INR 72.83 74.05 75.57 76.79 78.31 77.09 74.35 75

rket Recap :

The Indian rupee on Monday opened lower but soon

erased losses and was trading marginally higher

against the US dollar from its previous close.

The local currency opened at 68.07 a dollar. The

home currency was trading at 67.91, up 0.08% from

ts previous close of 67.97.

The offshore non-deliverable forward (NDF) marketof one-month dropped to 68.53 per dollar and the

hree-month rate fell to 69.27 a dollar.

The dollar index, which measures the US currencys

trength against major currencies, was trading at

96.287, up 0.88% from its previous close of 95.448.

300June,2016


7/10

Nifty last week opened at 8115.75, registered a low at 7927, made a high of 8285.60 and Nifty finally cloweek at 8088.60 thereby showed a net decline of 82 points on week to week basis. Correction to 7992-7890 used for buying with a stop loss of 7800. Traders long and holding the same can maintain the stop loss at 7800.tance is at 8273-8336 can be used to take profits or exit long position in index and index related stocks. Traders con breakout and close above 8336 with low of the week as the stop loss or 7927 whichever is lower.

7-

treet Recommendations Report Card

Top Fundamental Stocks

Stocks Rec. Date CMP on Rec. CMP TargetAbsoluteReturn @

CMPSta

nderla Holidays 25/04/2016 387 397 498 3% Accum

d-Tek Packaging 04/04/2016 138 161 179 17% Bu

mna Auto 22/02/2016 133 169 181 27% Bu

Educare 01/02/2016 164 163 230 0% B

ware-Wall Ropes 28/12/2015 425 359 550 -16% Bu

M Syntax 23/11/2015 121 98 223 -19% Bu

co Pharma 02/11/2015 509 590 636 16% Bu

F 21/09/2015 1140 1269 1374 11% Bu

uwal ia contracts 24/08/2015 235 278 368 18% Bu

nite Computer20/07/2015 190 211 255 11% Bu

dbhavgineering Ltd.

04/05/2015 298 276 430 -7% Bu

kar specialityemicals

16/03/2015 152 167 251 10% Bu

FL 16/02/2015 252 196 368 -22% Accum

Today Network 27/01/2015 222 293 337 32% Bu

M 12/01/2015 1238 1390 1452 12% Bu

vells India 27/10/2014 274 360 346 31% Bu

C India Fin. Ser. 07/07/2014 39 37 45 -6% Bu

ani Port 05/07/2014 280 205 347 -27% Accum

pital First 06/06/2016 552 552 660 0% Accum

snotimportantwhetheryouarerightorwrong,Itsabouthowmuchmoneyyoumakewhenyou'rerightandh

chyou

lose

when

you're

wrong.

300June,2016


8/10

7-

treet Short Term Call Status

300June,2016

DATE

STOCK

BUY/SELL

RANGE

RANGETRIGGER

PRICETGT

SL

STATUS

RE

12May16 MCDOWELL BUY 2670 2730 2700.00 2800.00 2600 SL

13May16AJANTA

PHARMASELL 1515 1545 1530.00 1475.00 1560 SL

16May16 ASIANPAINT BUY 934 952 943.00 972 905 TA

17May16 ZEEL BUY 444 454 449.00 475 430 EXPIRE

18May16 GRASIM BUY 4250 4350 4300.00 4450 4180 TA

19May16 CASTROLIND SELL 380 388 384.00 370 399 TA

20May16 BANKBARODA SELL 135 138 136.50 129.00 142 TA

23May16 ADANIENT SELL 69 70.5 69.75 65 72.8 SL

24May16WOCK

PHARMASELL 895 920 907.50 855 945 TA

25May16 SRTRANSFIN BUY 1145 1170 1157.50 1220 1110 TA

26May16 TATAMTRDVR BUY 267 273 270.00 285 258 TA

30May16 TATACHEM BUY 428 436 432.00 445 416 EXPIRE

31May16HEROMO

TOCOBUY 3050 3110 3080.00 3180 2990 TA

1Jun16 SBIN BUY 200 206 203.00 214 192 TA

2Jun16 ACC BUY 1535 1575 1555.00 1600 1505 EXPIRE

3Jun16 YESBANK BUY 1035 1065 1050.00 1110.00 1005 TA

6Jun16 TATAMOTORS BUY 451 461 456.00 482 438 TA

7Jun16 HINDALCO BUY 105 109 107.00 114 103 TA

8Jun16 ULTRACEMCO BUY 3310 3370 3340.00 3520 3240 SL

9Jun16 SIEMENS BUY 1251 1275 1263.00 1330 1225 EXPIRE

10Jun16 SIEMENS BUY 1240 1265 1252.50 1330.00 1200 EXPIRE

13Jun16 LUPIN SELL 1430 1460 1445.00 1400.00 1370 SL

14Jun16 YESBANK BUY 1054 1080 1067.00 1130 1030 TA


9/10

7-

treet Short Term Call Status

300June,2016

DATE STOCKBUY/

SELLRANGE

TRIGGER

PRICETGT SL STATUS CMP

RE

15Jun16 VOLTAS BUY 327 333 330.00 340 318 EXPIRE

16Jun16 HDFCBANK BUY 1150 1170 1160.00 1220 1135 OPEN

17Jun16 VEDL BUY 121 124 122.50 126 118 OPEN

20Jun16 GODREJCP BUY 1518 1548 1533.00 1580.00 1480 OPEN

21Jun16 GODREJIND BUY 367 373 370.00 380.00 358 OPEN

22Jun16 BANKINDIA BUY 95 97 96.00 100.00 92 OPEN

23Jun16 HDFC BUY 1228 1252 1240.00 1275.00 1200 OPEN

24Jun16 BAJAJAUTO BUY 2654 2705 2679.50 2750.00 2600 OPEN

STAUTS

CALLS

RATIO

TA+PB 13 72.22

SL+EXIT 5 27.77

TOTAL 18 100

One call on daily basis is given keeping view of short term trading on closing basis.Time frame and expected % of return is also mentioned with the suggested call.

This call are purely given on technical trading system generated by the Technical Research Desk.Generally Expected Return on investment is 5-6 % with time horizon of 6-7 days.Profit Booking update is considered if on an average expected return exceed 3.50-4.00 % against Expected return of 5-6%Risk- Reward ratio percentage wise depends on the volatility of stock Normally it stands ( 3 : 9)


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300June,2016

J Street Volume 300

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Transcript of J Street Volume 300