Italyandenergy

FONDERIA OXFORD POLITICHE PER L’ITALIA

ITALY AND ENERGY Where we are, and where we are going

Simone Falco 15 May 2011

15 May 2011 Italy and Energy

We will talk about:

•  How Italy produces energy

•  How other countries produce energy

•  Kyoto protocol

•  Blue Map Scenario

•  Classic energy sources

•  Alternative energy sources

•  The real green energy!


Before starting

Unless is explicitly indicated all the data and the graphs in the presentation refer only to electric energy! The other kind of energies – mostly heating and transport – are not considered because of the different mechanisms and issues involved. Nevertheless they are massively involved in the global warming and the CO2 production.


How Italy produces energy

Gas 44%

Oil 5%

Solid fuel 12%

Other fuels 5%

Hydroelectric 14%

Other renewables

6%

Import* 14%

Electricity production in Italy (2009)

Font: Terna

* The graph does not take in account of the energy exported, i.e. the net energy imported is lower (11%)


How other countries produce energy

Thermal Idric Eolic Photovoltaic Geothermal Nuclear

ITALY FRANCE SPAIN

GERMANY UK EU 27

TOT=3359.8 TWh TOT=390.0 TWh TOT=633.2 TWh

TOT=574.0 TWh TOT=313.4 TWh TOT=319.1 TWh

Font: Terna


Kyoto protocol Kyoto protocol commit the countries that have signed the treaty (USA does not) to reduce – within 2012 – their collective greenhouse gas emissions by 5.2% from the 1990 level. Obviously this target pass through the production of greener electric energy, but is not the only process involved, so it is better to refer on a plan focused only on electric energy production. Just to know For Italy that means a reduction of 6.5% Italy was fined by €555 Million in 2010, that can become 840 in 2012 because is not in line with the reductions!!!


Blue Map Scenario (1/2) The IEA (in 2009) created the so-called “Blue Map Scenario” with the goal to reduce the global greenhouse gas emissions by 50% within 2050. According with this scenario European countries have to reduce the emission by 75%

Font: IEA – ETP (2010)


Blue Map Scenario (2/2)

Font: IEA – ETP (2010)

Fuel Switch (Final users)

Efficiency (final users)

Less enenergivorous behaviour

Nuclear

CCS

Renewables

Efficiency and fuel switch (Elect. generation)


Blue Map Scenario Italy: ENEA calculation

4%

50%

5%

16%

25%

2020

4%

25%

30%

11%

9%

11%

10%

2050


How Italy produces energy

Gas 44%

Oil 5%

Solid fuel 12%

Other fuels 5%

Hydroelectric 14%

Other renewables

6%

Import* 14%

Electricity production in Italy (2009)

Font: Terna

* The graph does not take in account of the energy exported, i.e. the net energy imported is lower (11%)


Classic energy source

Font: Assorcarboni (from IEA)


Classic energy sources: Natural gas (1/2)

Algeria 31%

Russia 31%

Libia 13%

Nertherland 10%

Norway 6% Produced

9%

Natural Gas in Italy (2008)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Other

Electricity production

Civil

Industry

Font: Terna


Classic energy sources: Natural gas (2/2)

•  For the same energy produced: Ø  Emits less CO2 (about 25%) than other fossil fuels

Ø  Emits 1800 times less PM than coal

•  There could be underwater field than could be exploited as the

deepwater mining technology improves

•  Gas reserves are concentrated in few - and politically instable –

countries (Algeria, Russia, Libia)

•  Transport and storage are complex

•  It will finish in less than 100 years (63 according to BP statistics)


Classic energy sources: Coal

•  Is the safer fossil fuel: nonflammable, not-explosive

•  Is not ground or water pollutant

•  Easy to transport and store

•  More than 100 countries can supply coal

•  Is the cheaper and more labor intensive fossil energy source Ø  (If Italy used as carbon as the rest of EU energy would cost 10% less, and

would occupy 3 times more people in energy production)

•  It will finish in less than 200 years (160 according to BP statistics)

•  Emits higher quantities of PM and CO2 than natural gas


Imported Energy (1/2) More than half of the imported energy is from Switzerland, 70% of which is from renewable fonts (even if about a third has not “Origin warranty”, so theoretically it could come from hydroelectric pumped during the night with nuclear energy). The few energy imported by Austria is almost entirely from renewables fonts. Considering that Slovenia has a mix with 38% of nuclear, it can be assumed Italy import 1800 GWh produced in nuclear plants. Finally we can assume all the energy imported by France – mostly during the night – is from nuclear, while the exported one (around 10%) is almost entirely used to supply the peaks of the electric system, not much flexible because of the age of the plants.


Imported Energy (2/2) Considering also the import, the electric energy in Italy in 2009 was produced mainly by fossil fuels (72%), than by renewables sources (22%) and finally only a small amount by nuclear (6%). The French nuclear energy imported in 2009 was only the 4,8% of the total!

Moreover Italy does not really need to import energy from France, but French nuclear plants cannot module the produced energy, so for Italy is more convenient to buy this energy during the night turning off the less efficient plants!!!


Eolic Energy

•  High energy yield ratio (80)

•  Amortization in 6-8 years

•  NIMBY politics (is noisy and disfigures the scenery)

•  Energy production variable and not manageable

•  Has not the same incentives of the photovoltaic energy (at the moment)


Photovoltaic energy

•  Possibility to build small domestic plants

•  Low maintenance and no noise because there are not any moving part

•  Low voltage electricity (not suitable for industries)

•  Low energy yield ratio (4-7)

•  Low efficiency (10-20%)

•  Energy production extremely variable and not manageable

•  The “green certificate” system is being changed Ø  Energy was paid up to 4 time the usual price for 20 years: highest

incentives in the world!!!


Combined power plant (1/2)

In Germany it was realized a combined power plant that consist of 3 wind parks (12,6 MW), 20 solar power plants (5,5 MW), 4 biogas systems (4,0 MW) and a pump storage (1060 MW, 80h). With this pilot project the participating part ies impressively showed that renewable energy can cover 100 % of electricity demand. The fluctuation in the production of wind turbine and solar cells are controlled by supplying extra energy from the biogas systems, or storing the energy surplus with the pump.


Combined power plant (2/2)


The real green energy

David JC MacKay* showed how in UK the sum of all the ideal energy deliverable by renewable sources is not enough to provide for the current energy request. Moreover even the renewable sources are not completely “green” for various reasons (manufacturing processes, disposal, environmental impact, etc…), so the only way to produce a completely “green” MWh is to do not use it!!! It can sound naive, but it is the only way to build a sustainable system without fossil and nuclear energy!

* Professor in the department of Physics at Cambridge University and chief scientific adviser to the UK Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC)

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