Integrated Operations and Planning - Advancing

the Modeling Practice

Doug Laird FHWA Office of Operations

Innovations in Travel Modeling Baltimore, Maryland

April 27, 2014

Rainy Days and Mondays

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Rainy Days and Mondays

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Rainy Days and Mondays

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Rainy Days and Mondays

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Dealing With it

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What We Plan For What We Often Get

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M&O  strategies  address  multiple  

sources  of  congestion    

-­‐  

not  just  capacity  

Sources of Nonrecurring Congestion

Operations Activities…

•  In:luence  travel  demand  (how  much,  when,  where)  •  Effectively  manage  traf:ic  that  results  •  Anticipate  and  respond  to  planned  and  unplanned  events  (traf:ic  incidents,  work  zones,  bad  weather,  special  events)  

•  Provide  travelers  with  high  quality  traf:ic  and  weather  information  

•  Ensure  that  the  unique  needs  of  the  freight  community  are  considered  and  included  in  all  of  the  above  

U.S. DOT, FHWA Office of Operations, The Operations Story, Presentation.

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Management & Operations Strategies Include…

•  Traf:ic  incident  management  •  Traf:ic  signal  coordination  •  Transit  signal  priority  •  Freight  management  •  Work  zone  management  •  Special  event  management  •  Road  weather  management  •  Congestion  pricing  •  Managed  Lanes  

•  Hard  shoulder  running  •  Variable  speed  limits  •  Parking  management  •  Electronic  toll  collection  •  Ridesharing  •  Traveler  information  •  Coordination  of  highway,  rail,  transit,  bicycle,  and  pedestrian  operations  

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Analytic Methods – Where We’ve Been

•  Static  demand  models  •  Subarea/corridor  models  

(some  focused,  some  windowed)  

•  Project-­‐  or  facility-­‐level  simulations  

•  HCM  analysis  •  Signal  optimization  

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Analytic Methods – Where We’re Going

•  Activity-­‐based  models  •  Dynamic  traf:ic  assignment  •  Integration  at  macro-­‐,  meso-­‐,  and  micro-­‐  levels  

•  Scenario  generators  •  Trajectory  processors  •  ATDM  analytic  engines  •  Real-­‐time  adaptive  control  •  Data-­‐driven  methods  •  Connected  vehicles  

Why Does FHWA Focus on Improving Operations?

•  To  reduce  /  manage  impacts  of  congestion  •  To  keep  people  and  commerce  moving  –  a  healthy  economy  needs  a  reliable  transportation  system  

•  To  improve  the  safety  and  sustainability  of  the  highway  system  

•  To  make  more  cost  effective  investment  of  limited  resources  

•  To  promote  a  more  proactive  approach  

U.S. DOT, FHWA Office of Operations, The Operations Story, Presentation.

Proactively Operating the Transportation System Requires:

•  Real-­‐time  and  forecasted  information  •  Measuring  /  monitoring  performance  •  Good  analytical  foundation  /  tools  •  State  of  the  art  technologies  and  strategies  •  Integration  across  system  elements,  jurisdictions,  and  modes  

•  An  organization  and  workforce  capable  of  managing  all  of  the  above  

U.S. DOT, FHWA Office of Operations, The Operations Story, Presentation.

Emerging Operational Approaches

•  Integrated  Corridor  Management  –  The  integrated  management  of  freeway,  arterial,  transit,  and  parking  systems  within  a  corridor  

–  Management  of  the  corridor  as  a  system,  rather  than  the  more  traditional  approach  of  managing  individual  assets  

•  Active  Transportation  and  Demand  Management  –  Dynamic  management,  control,  and  in:luence  of  travel  demand,  traf:ic  demand,  and  traf:ic  :low  of  transportation  facilities  

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Planning for Operations provides  the  foundation  for  proactively  operating  the  transportation  system  

Challenges and Directions

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Data Challenges

•  Access  to  data  we  need  (transit,  freight,  arterial,  and  ped/bike)  •  Access  to  person-­‐based  data  •  Cost  of  data    •  Con:identiality  restrictions  •  Data  ownership/control  •  Accuracy  of  data  •  Location  reference  system  inconsistencies    •  Data  overload  •  Data  analysis  tools  •  Staff  knowledge/skills  •  Keeping  up  with  new  and  rapidly  evolving  data  and  technologies  •  Partnering  with  agencies  that  have  different  priorities  

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Dynamic Representation – Average vs. Dynamic Conditions

6:00 AM Time

Rec

urre

nt

Con

gest

ion

7:00 AM 8:00 AM 9:00 AM

Average of Recurrent

Congestion STA Representation

STA Traveler Expectation

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Average Day Should not be Modeled

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Day-to-Day Variations

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Trajectory Variations

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GeoPKDD, University of Pisa

Travel Time Variability

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Model must capture variation and its sources -  System and operational controls -  People’s behavior

0:25  

0:35  

0:45  

0:55  

1:05  

1:15  

1:25  

1:35  

0   25   50   75   100   125   150   175   200   225   250   275   300   325   350   375   400   425   450   475   500   525  

JTW  Total  Travel  Tim

e  

Observa1on  No.  

AM  Travel  Time  

target  

5  min  

15  min  

10  min  

95th  %  travel  3me      85th  %  travel  3me  

   

Travel(er) Time Distributions

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0

10

20

30

40

50

60

25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90

Freq

uenc

y

Travel Time (minutes)

free-flow TT

meanTT

95% TT

avg. high 5%

TT

Forecasting Changes in Travel Time Reliability

FUNDAMENTALS  •  Replicate  the  gamut  of  travelers  and  experiences  •  Account  for  the  causes  

–  Variations  in  capacity  –  Variations  in  demand  

•  Capture  exogenous  factors  along  short-­‐  and  long-­‐term  time  scales  

•  Re:lect  adaptive  behavior  •  Emergent  behavior  not  obvious  from  individual  components  –  high  degree  of  complexity  

Forecasting Changes in Travel Time Reliability

STEPS  1.  Generate  scenarios  –  endogenous  and  exogenous  2.  Validate  (V1)to  average  observed  conditions  3.  Validate  (V2)to  a  full  range  of  conditions  –match  

TT  distributions  across  :irst  4  moments  of  data    4.  Backcast  to  known  variances  5.  Check  against  evolutionary  behavioral  changes  6.  Check  model  sensitivity;  scale  if  needed  7.  Compare  the  odds  of  travel  time  changes  

Is there an easier way?

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Thank You