Impacts of Biomass Burning Emissions on Air Quality and Public Health in the United States

Daniel Tong$, Rohit Mathur+, George Pouliot+, Kenneth Schere+, Shaocai Yu$, Daiwen Kang$, and Jeff Young+

Chapel Hill, NC

October 17, 2006

Atmospheric Sciences Modeling Division, ARL/NOAA, RTP, NC 27711

$On assignment from Science and Technology Corporation, Hampton, VA 23666+On assignment to NERL/EPA, Research Triangle Park, NC 27711

OutlineOutline

Biomass Burning Emissions for CMAQ

Methodology

Impacts on Air Quality

Impacts on Public Health

Conclusion

BackgroundBackground

Biomass burning includes wildfires, prescribed burning, open burning, and agricultural fires;

Wildfire is a natural disaster that claims human life and property;

Most attention has been paid to direct life and health threats, mostly to firefighters.

We focus on the indirect impact of wildfires on the general population due to degraded air quality

MethodologyMethodology Integrated Assessment Approach: link emissions to

pollutant concentrations, to exposure, and to health impacts

Emissions Air Quality

Exposure Health Impacts

Method:Method:

Use satellite and ground data to estimate biomass burning Use satellite and ground data to estimate biomass burning emissions.emissions.

Use the Eta-CMAQ air quality forecast model to link Use the Eta-CMAQ air quality forecast model to link emissions to air quality. emissions to air quality.

Use calculated pollutant concentrations and population Use calculated pollutant concentrations and population census data to estimate exposure.census data to estimate exposure.

Use concentration-response relationships from Use concentration-response relationships from epidemiological studies to estimate damage.epidemiological studies to estimate damage.

National Emission Inventories for National Emission Inventories for Biomass BurningBiomass Burning

Historic data based on multi-year state-level inventory

Accurate fire data for the year of 2002

Spatially and temporally averaged fire data is currently used in air quality forecast operation

Question: During a fire-active period, are the averaged fire

emissions sufficient for CMAQ to reproduce O3 and PM observation?

When there is no fire, are the persisting fire emissions too much for CMAQ?

PMPM2.52.5 During A Wildfire Episode During A Wildfire Episode

Origin of Fires

PM2.5 in CMAQ

(Model vs. Obs)

(Source: Yu et al., 2006)

Evolution of Fire Plumes in US

TOMS (AAI)

Fire Emissions and PMFire Emissions and PM2.52.5 in Florida in Florida

Fires with 2001 NEI Fires with revised NEI

(Source: Pouliot et al., 2005)

Near Real-Time Fire EmissionsNear Real-Time Fire Emissions

Use the Hazard Mapping System (HMS) product from satellites and ground data to create a real-time emission inventory for fires.

Max PMMax PM2.52.5 Emissions Emissions Max NOMax NOxx Emissions Emissions

Fire-Induced Degradation in Air Quality

Ambient O3June 19 – July 9, 2004

Difference in average concentrations (Fire – Base)

Fire-Induced Degradation in Air Quality

Ambient PM2.5

Difference in average concentrations (Fire – Base)

June 19 – July 9, 2004

Health Impacts of Health Impacts of Biomass Burning EmissionsBiomass Burning Emissions

What is the health consequence of degraded air quality due to biomass burning?

Question:

Mortality Estimation MethodMortality Estimation MethodCalculate mortalities resulting from O3 or PM2.5 exposure using

dose-response functions from epidemiological literature

M = change in number of deaths.

Y0 = annual baseline mortality rate.

Population = size of affected population. = relative risk per unit change in concentration, determined

from meta-analysis of epidemiological time-series studies.

c = difference in ambient O3 or PM2.5 concentration between two model runs with emissions from fires turned on and off.

O3 concentration-response function was derived from a time-series analyses.

PM2.5 concentration-response function was taken from a cohort study which estimate total mortality resulting from chronic exposure.

M = Y0 * Population* [exp (*c)-1]

Concentration-Response FunctionsConcentration-Response Functions

Calculating Health Days LostCalculating Health Days Lost

i – Age group i, N – Number of age groups

US Population MapUS Population Map

OO33-related Health Impact-related Health Impact

Total: 160,591 (83,544 – 237,329, 95% CI) health days lost

PMPM2.52.5-related Health Impact-related Health Impact

Total: 465,198 (242,010 – 687,490 for 95% CI) health days lost

ConclusionConclusion

Biomass burning emissions are important for air quality during fire-active periods

--- Up to 5 ppbv increases in average O3

--- Up to 54 ug/m3 increases in average PM2.5

Indirect health impact of biomass burning is considerable

For the 18-day episodes: --- 160,591 health days lost from O3 impact; --- 465,198 health days lost from PM2.5 impact;

Future WorkFuture Work

Uncertainty Analysis

--- Fire emissions: fire detection, fuel loading, combustion efficiency, emission factor etc.

--- Air quality modeling--- Exposure and health impact estimates

Annual and multi-year simulations

--- Results restricted to a 3-week simulation;--- Annual simulation needed to obtain the total impact;--- A multi-year simulation is needed due to large

variations in fire emissions

AcknowledgementAcknowledgement

We thank Deborah Luecken, S.T. Rao, Peter Egeghy, Tom Pierce, Tom Pace, and Michelle Bell for comments

Disclaimer: The research presented here was performed under the Memorandum of Understanding between the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Commerce's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and under agreement number DW13921548. This work constitutes a contribution to the NOAA Air Quality Program. Although it has been reviewed by EPA and NOAA and approved for publication, it does not necessarily reflect their policies or views.