HYDROPOWER: A Comparative Energy Review J. Mark Robinson JMR Energy Infra, LLC NWHA February 23,...

HYDROPOWER:A Comparative Energy Review

J. Mark RobinsonJMR Energy Infra, LLC

NWHA February 23, 2011

JMR Energy Infra, LLC

Wood to Coal to Oil to ?

1890

1945



Existing Net Summer Capacity by Energy Source

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20090

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

Coal

Natural Gas

Nuclear

Conventional Hydropower

Renewables

Source: EIA, 1/4/2011


Electric Generation Growth2008 to 2035

Coal

Natural

Gas

Nuclear

Hydro

power

Renewables

Other

0

100

200

300

400

500

20082035

Source: EIA 2010 Annual Energy Outlook

GW

s


No New Nuclear Generation Sites 1997 - 2008 1,000 Net MW


NuclearTime and Money

• The NRC’s new licensing process takes about 10 years to complete.

• The estimated capital cost to build a new nuclear plant ranges from $4,000/kW to $8,000/kW.

• The United States currently has 56,000 metric tons of spent nuclear fuel from nuclear reactors. By the year 2035 it is expected to have 119,000 metric tons with no long term storage.


New Coal Fired Generation1997 – 2008 0 Net MW


Coal Carbon Capture and Sequestration (CCS)

• S is the problem.• CO2 is a colorless, odorless gas which is lethal to

humans in a concentration of 10-11%.• To sequestrate CO2– Many miles of pipe are needed.• Up to 23,000 miles of CO2 pipeline will be

needed between 2010 and 2050 for CCS. (PNNL)– Permanent, non-cycling storage sites must be

found.• Regulatory Environment Does Not Exist – eminent

domain


New Non-Hydro Renewable Generation 1997 – 2008 23,000 Net MW


Wind and Solar Energy Land Use and Transmission

• Land use: 500 MW facility– Wind: 30,000 acres– Solar: 3,500 acres

• DOE 20 percent by 2030 – 300,000 MW• 13 to 18 million acres – Mass/Maryland/Conn

• Renewable sources are not near the market• Current regulatory regimes for siting electric

transmission are poor• S.1462 – Introduced July 16, 2009

JMR Energy Infra, LLCSources: FERC

Between 2000 and 2009 nine High Voltage (≥345kV)Interstate Transmission Lines were built

682 miles

345 kV

Transmission Projects

DC

765 kV


New Natural Gas Fired Generation1997 – 2008 221,000 Net MW


Between 2000 and 2009 the Commission approved 15,000 miles of interstate pipeline

Transco (204,236,323)

Southern (336,330)

Kern River

(135,886)

NorthBaja(500, 2,700)

Tuscarora(96)

SCG Pipeline (190)

12

3

Northwest(191)

East Tennessee (510)TETCO (197)

El Paso (230,320,150)

WBI(80)

ANR(194,220)

11 CheyennePlains (560)

13

11. CIG (85,133,105) 12. TransColorado (250) 13. WIC (120,675,350,556) 14. Entrega (1,500) 15. Rockies Express West (1,800)

8

Transwestern (500)

Questar (102)

Florida Gas (270)

East Tennessee (170)

4

6

Northern Border

(544,130)

Midcontinent (1,500)Southern Trails (120)

Gulfstream(1,130, 155)

7Guardian(750, 537)

Trailblazer(324)

12

El Paso (502)

Golden Pass (2,500)

14

Columbia (172)

5

8Dominion(700)

Port Arthur (3,000)

9

Center Point (1,237, 280)

Vector (245,105)

10Northern Natural

(374)

15

Trunkline (510)

TETCO (150)

Gulf South(1,700, 560)

Natural (200)

Elba Express (1,175)

Southeast Supply(1,140,175)

Gulf Crossing (1,732)

Texas Gas (1,609)CenterPoint (132)

Rockies ExpressEast (1,800)

CenterPoint (132)Southern/Magnolia (82)

Cypress (500)

NorthernStar(1,300)

1. Islander East (285) 2. Iroquois (100,200) 3. Columbia (135) 4. Transcontinental (130,142) 5. Transcontinental (100) 6. Maritimes (418) 7. Tennessee (500) 8. Tennessee (136) 9. Texas Eastern (900)10. Algonquin (325)


Pending Hydropower Projects Sept 2, 2010 168 MW

Source: FERC

29 Projects

Electric Generation Capital Costs

Hydroele

ctric

Natural

Gas CC

Natural

Gas CT

Wind O

nshore

Wind O

ffshore

Solar

Therm

al

Photovolta

ic

Coal PC

Coal IGCC

Nuclear

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

2010 $/kW

2011 $/kW

Dol

lars

Source: EIA, 2010



Six Principles of Energy Infrastructure Siting

Six Principles Hydropower Renewables/Transmission

Natural GasPipelines

1) Pre-filing x x2) Exclusive Authority ? x3) Disciplined Schedule x4) One Federal Record x5) Expeditious Judicial Review x6) Eminent Domain x x


Cost of FERC Hydro Application

0 200 400 600 800 1000 12000

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

f(x) = 25935.572423404 x + 2165594.41025769R² = 0.669287897358986

MWs

Dol

lars

in m

illio

ns

n=60

Source: FERC


Integrated Licensing Process

EvolvedIntegrated Licensing Process

PAD



Developing a Hydropower Siting Culture

• Economic Interdependence

• Appreciation of the time scale for Major Energy Infrastructure

• Intergenerational Responsibility


Hydropower’s Future

• Competition without subsidies - costs

• Legislative/Regulatory Environment

• Development Culture

HYDROPOWER: A Comparative Energy Review J. Mark Robinson JMR Energy Infra, LLC NWHA February 23,...

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