Hui Wang

Director General, National Marine Environmental Forecasting Center

(NMEFC), State Oceanic Administration of China (SOA)

July 14, 2015

Chinese Antarctic research stations

Dome CDome B

Dome A

Dome F

South pole

VostokStation

Zhongshan Station

Great Wall Station

Taishan  Station  

R/V  Xuelong  

Arctic Cruises (6 total: 1999,2003,2008,2010, 2012,2014): n  Arctic Pacific Sector n  Central Arctic �n  Arctic Atlantic Sector (Iceland) Operational station: n  Spitsbergen Archipelago (Yellow River station) �

Chinese main Arctic research areas

Polar Observations

Eddy Air-ice turbulent fluxes

Spectral albedo

Ice drilling-thickness

EM-31 ice thickness �

Meteorological observation -WMO �

Radiosonde, AWS and eddy flux onboard Xuelong �

http://www.nmefc.gov.cn/szyb/jdhb-­‐b.aspx  

Operational polar weather forecasts •  Polar  WRF  Model  •  Resolu/on:  30-­‐10-­‐3.33  km  •  Data  assimila/on:  Nudging      

http://www.nmefc.gov.cn/szyb/jdhb-­‐b.aspx  

Operational polar sea-ice forecasts

•  MITgcm  sea  ice  –  ocean  coupled  model  •  Resolu/on:  18  km  •  Data  assimila/on:  Nudging      

Forecasting service for Arctic shipping

•  Yongsheng,  the  first  Chinese  commercial  Arc/c  cruise  in  2013  •  A  two-­‐way  cruises  in  2015  •  Forecas/ng  service  by  NMEFC        

Emergency forecasting service when Xuelong trapped in the Antarctic, 2014

Expectations to YOPP � Establish  sustainable  observation  system  in  the  Arctic  and  Antarctic.  

� Connect  observation  and  modelling  more  closely.  �  Improve  polar  prediction  ability,  especially  sea  ice.  �  Strengthen  international  cooperation  with  relevant  institutions�

Contributions to YOPP - 1 � Observations  

ü Frequent  surface  and  radiosonde  meteorological  observations  Using  R/V  Xuelong,  polar  research  stations,  and  other  AWS.  

ü More  sea  ice-­‐ocean  observations  based  on  R/V  Xuelong,  fixed  sea  ice  site  and  buoys:  sea  ice  concentration,  surface  radiation,  albedo,  eddy  fluxes,  snow  and  sea  ice  mass  balance  (IMBs),  water  temperature  and  salinity  

 ü International  synergistic  observations  during  YOPP          

Ø           Coordinate  Chinese  Arctic  and  Antarctic  Administration  (CAA);  

Ø           Chinese  Arctic  Cruise  in  2018  (TBD)  

 

           

Contributions to YOPP - 2 �  Prediction  

ü High  resolution  atmosphere  and    ice-­‐ocean  coupled  forecasts:          <  5  km  in  key  interesting  regions    ü Data  assimilation:  simple  Nudging,  and  Ensemble  Kalman  Filter  based  sea  ice  –  ocean  data  assimilation  

ü Arctic  and  Antarctic  sea  ice  seasonal  outlook  (statistical  method)    ü Forecasting  service  for  Arctic  and  Antarctic  shipping    ü sharing  the  data  with  YOPP  partners.    

�  Education  and  Outreach  ü More  engagement  of  Young  researchers  and  PhD  students        (>  20  persons)  ü We  are  happy  to  host  PPP-­‐SG  meeting  in  2016,  or  some  related  workshops/summer  school  on  polar  prediction  during  YOPP  period.    

           

�  Strengthen  international  cooperation  to  improve  polar  prediction  ability.  

�  Sustainable  observation  system  for  both  YOPP  and  the  time  beyond.    

�  Identifying  verification  metric  for  sea  ice  prediction  is  an  urgent  issue.    

Recommendations to YOPP

Thanks for your attention !