Pengantar Valuasi

Prof. Arief Anshory Yusuf

Director EEI Indonesia

Universitas Padjadjaran

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SDGs Center

PDB per kapita kita sekarang sekitar 5 kali lipatPDB per kapita ketika kita mulai merdeka (1945)

Sekolah Valuasi2

Paradoks gunting (Easterlin Paradox)

Sekolah Valuasi3

PDB per capita

Kebahagiaan

Determinant of happiness in Indonesia (FE regression)

Sekolah Valuasi4

Top1% Top5% Top10% Top20% Gini

Inequality -0.231 (0.170) -0.174* (0.103) -0.181** (0.088) -0.158* (0.081) -0.120* (0.068)

Number of poor people (log) -0.003 (0.008) -0.003 (0.008) -0.003 (0.008) -0.003 (0.008) -0.004 (0.008)

Household size 0.022*** (0.006) 0.022*** (0.006) 0.022*** (0.006) 0.022*** (0.006) 0.022*** (0.006)

Household size (squared) -0.002*** (0.001) -0.002*** (0.001) -0.002*** (0.001) -0.002*** (0.001) -0.002*** (0.001)

Log of per capita expenditure 0.040*** (0.007) 0.040*** (0.007) 0.040*** (0.007) 0.040*** (0.007) 0.040*** (0.007)

Age -0.000 (0.001) -0.000 (0.001) -0.001 (0.001) -0.001 (0.001) -0.001 (0.001)

Age squared 0.000* (0.000) 0.000** (0.000) 0.000** (0.000) 0.000** (0.000) 0.000** (0.000)

Female, 1=Yes 0=Otherwise 0.161 (0.512) 0.162 (0.512) 0.162 (0.513) 0.163 (0.513) 0.163 (0.512)

Married, 1=Yes 0=Otherwise 0.134*** (0.011) 0.134*** (0.011) 0.135*** (0.011) 0.135*** (0.011) 0.135*** (0.011)

Muslim, 1=Yes 0=Otherwise 0.066 (0.064) 0.066 (0.064) 0.066 (0.064) 0.066 (0.064) 0.066 (0.064)

Years of education 0.000 (0.003) 0.000 (0.003) 0.000 (0.003) 0.000 (0.003) 0.000 (0.003)

Very healthy, 1=Yes 0=Otherwise 0.097*** (0.012) 0.097*** (0.012) 0.097*** (0.012) 0.097*** (0.012) 0.097*** (0.012)

Fairly healthy, 1=Yes 0=Otherwise 0.063*** (0.009) 0.063*** (0.009) 0.063*** (0.009) 0.063*** (0.009) 0.063*** (0.009)

Religious, 1=Yes 0=Otherwise 0.080*** (0.011) 0.080*** (0.011) 0.080*** (0.011) 0.080*** (0.011) 0.080*** (0.011)

Worked, 1=Yes 0=Otherwise 0.014* (0.008) 0.014* (0.008) 0.015* (0.008) 0.015* (0.008) 0.015* (0.008)

Urban residence, 1=Yes 0=Otherwise 0.007 (0.012) 0.008 (0.012) 0.008 (0.012) 0.008 (0.012) 0.008 (0.012)

Language used, 1=Indonesia 0=Otherwise Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes

Month of interview, dummies Yes (2.099) Yes (2.117) Yes (2.134) Yes (2.150) Yes (2.124)

Constant 2.099*** (0.324) 2.117*** (0.325) 2.134*** (0.326) 2.150*** (0.327) 2.124*** (0.325)

Number of observations 40,225 (0.027) 40,225 (0.027) 40,225 (0.027) 40,225 (0.027) 40,225 (0.027)

Citarum River Pollution

Sekolah Valuasi5

BNPB: 16 Orang Tewas dan 18 Hilang dalam BanjirGarut

Sekolah Valuasi6

The 2015 haze

Sekolah Valuasi7

there would be more than 100,000 premature deaths caused by the 2015 haze

Sekolah Valuasi8

Sekolah Valuasi9

• Sistem ekonomi kita• Sistem pasar• Sistem harga• Mekanisme pasar/harga• Kapitalisme

• Sistem ekonomi kita bekerja menggunakan harga (hargapasar) sebagai signal dalam melakukan aktivitas ekonomi

• Harga tinggi => perbanyak alokasi

• Harga rendah => kurangi alokasi

• Tidak ada harga => Jangan ada alokasi

• Ironi: Hampir semua hal yang manusia anggap paling bernilai bisa jadi tidak ada harga pasarnya!

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Root cause

PRICE ≠ VALUE

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Commercial profit from

shrimp farming

9,632

Commercial profit from mangrove

forest

584

Economic return from

shrimp farming (excluding subsides)

1,220

Subsidies-8,412

Economic return from mangrove

including fish nursery

987584

Economic return from

shrimp farming including

restoration cost

1,220

Restoration cost

-9,318

Economic return from mangrove

including storm protection

10,821

987584

Comparison of land use value per ha (South Thailand) – US$/ha

Source: TEEB – D1 (2009, based on Barbier (2007))

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How to achieve a green growth?

Kita tidak pandai berhitung Kita kurang peduli pada hari esok

“The economic invisibility of nature“ (P. Sukhdev)

Non-sustainable behavior = non-sustainable dev’t.

Make the nature economically visible –Disclose their values = eCBA

Mainstream and apply GREEN GROWTH indicators

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Ilmu Ekonomi (Economics)

▪ Ilmu Ekonomi: Bagaimanamengalokasikan sumberdaya yang terbatas(scarcity)

▪ Jargon terpenting dalamilmu ekonomi: efisiensi

▪ UUD’45 Pasal 33 ayat 4: Perekonomian nasionaldiselenggarakan berdasar[…] prinsip […] efisiensi[…]

▪ Apa yang dimaksuddengan‘efisiensi’?

Konsumen

Produsen

Pemerintah

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Economics is about allocation of resources

MembuatBeras

MembuatSenjata

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Economics is about allocation of resources

Decision makers are left with the difficult problem of evaluating and choosing investment projects and assessing policies in a context of significant complexity and uncertainty.

How do we assess whether a public investment project is good for society?

How do we account for the environmental impacts of these investment projects?

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Role of economics

1. Assessing trade-offs →

2. Analyzing the underlying reasons for resource depletion/ environmental degradation

3. Offering options for intervention

scarcity and opportunity cost

Cost benefit analysis, including economic

valuation of environmental goods

and services

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Role of economic analysis

Economic analysis…

Compares all the gains and losses resulting from a project or policy

Summarizes all positive (benefits) and negative (costs) aspects of project or policy

Serves as an organizing framework for stakeholders to discuss the various aspects of project or policy

Aims to provide information about the economic efficiency of project or policy

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Key Issue

Is this a good project?

Which project (option) is better?

For any given project:

For any given groups of projects (or options):

Good or better for whom?

Project proponent OR Government OR Society?

How do we measure ‘good’?

Profits OR Government budget OR Society’s welfare?

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Is this a good project?

For investor For government For society

Private sector Public sector

Conduct a financial analysis or

private cost-benefit analysis

Conduct a fiscal

analysis

Conduct an economicanalysis or social cost-

benefit analysis

These 3 types of analysis are very different from one another and will provide different types of information to different decision-makers.

TERIMA KASIHEEI-Indonesia member of EEPSEA

http://sdgcenter.unpad.ac.id/eei-indonesia/www.eepseapartners.org/indonesia-home/

indonesia.eei@gmail.com

SDGs Center - Universitas Padjadjaranwww.sdgcenter.unpad.ac.id

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SDGs Center