Pengantar Valuasi
Prof. Arief Anshory Yusuf
Director EEI Indonesia
Universitas Padjadjaran
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SDGs Center
PDB per kapita kita sekarang sekitar 5 kali lipatPDB per kapita ketika kita mulai merdeka (1945)
Sekolah Valuasi2
Paradoks gunting (Easterlin Paradox)
Sekolah Valuasi3
PDB per capita
Kebahagiaan
Determinant of happiness in Indonesia (FE regression)
Sekolah Valuasi4
Top1% Top5% Top10% Top20% Gini
Inequality -0.231 (0.170) -0.174* (0.103) -0.181** (0.088) -0.158* (0.081) -0.120* (0.068)
Number of poor people (log) -0.003 (0.008) -0.003 (0.008) -0.003 (0.008) -0.003 (0.008) -0.004 (0.008)
Household size 0.022*** (0.006) 0.022*** (0.006) 0.022*** (0.006) 0.022*** (0.006) 0.022*** (0.006)
Household size (squared) -0.002*** (0.001) -0.002*** (0.001) -0.002*** (0.001) -0.002*** (0.001) -0.002*** (0.001)
Log of per capita expenditure 0.040*** (0.007) 0.040*** (0.007) 0.040*** (0.007) 0.040*** (0.007) 0.040*** (0.007)
Age -0.000 (0.001) -0.000 (0.001) -0.001 (0.001) -0.001 (0.001) -0.001 (0.001)
Age squared 0.000* (0.000) 0.000** (0.000) 0.000** (0.000) 0.000** (0.000) 0.000** (0.000)
Female, 1=Yes 0=Otherwise 0.161 (0.512) 0.162 (0.512) 0.162 (0.513) 0.163 (0.513) 0.163 (0.512)
Married, 1=Yes 0=Otherwise 0.134*** (0.011) 0.134*** (0.011) 0.135*** (0.011) 0.135*** (0.011) 0.135*** (0.011)
Muslim, 1=Yes 0=Otherwise 0.066 (0.064) 0.066 (0.064) 0.066 (0.064) 0.066 (0.064) 0.066 (0.064)
Years of education 0.000 (0.003) 0.000 (0.003) 0.000 (0.003) 0.000 (0.003) 0.000 (0.003)
Very healthy, 1=Yes 0=Otherwise 0.097*** (0.012) 0.097*** (0.012) 0.097*** (0.012) 0.097*** (0.012) 0.097*** (0.012)
Fairly healthy, 1=Yes 0=Otherwise 0.063*** (0.009) 0.063*** (0.009) 0.063*** (0.009) 0.063*** (0.009) 0.063*** (0.009)
Religious, 1=Yes 0=Otherwise 0.080*** (0.011) 0.080*** (0.011) 0.080*** (0.011) 0.080*** (0.011) 0.080*** (0.011)
Worked, 1=Yes 0=Otherwise 0.014* (0.008) 0.014* (0.008) 0.015* (0.008) 0.015* (0.008) 0.015* (0.008)
Urban residence, 1=Yes 0=Otherwise 0.007 (0.012) 0.008 (0.012) 0.008 (0.012) 0.008 (0.012) 0.008 (0.012)
Language used, 1=Indonesia 0=Otherwise Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Month of interview, dummies Yes (2.099) Yes (2.117) Yes (2.134) Yes (2.150) Yes (2.124)
Constant 2.099*** (0.324) 2.117*** (0.325) 2.134*** (0.326) 2.150*** (0.327) 2.124*** (0.325)
Number of observations 40,225 (0.027) 40,225 (0.027) 40,225 (0.027) 40,225 (0.027) 40,225 (0.027)
Citarum River Pollution
Sekolah Valuasi5
BNPB: 16 Orang Tewas dan 18 Hilang dalam BanjirGarut
Sekolah Valuasi6
The 2015 haze
Sekolah Valuasi7
there would be more than 100,000 premature deaths caused by the 2015 haze
Sekolah Valuasi8
Sekolah Valuasi9
• Sistem ekonomi kita• Sistem pasar• Sistem harga• Mekanisme pasar/harga• Kapitalisme
• Sistem ekonomi kita bekerja menggunakan harga (hargapasar) sebagai signal dalam melakukan aktivitas ekonomi
• Harga tinggi => perbanyak alokasi
• Harga rendah => kurangi alokasi
• Tidak ada harga => Jangan ada alokasi
• Ironi: Hampir semua hal yang manusia anggap paling bernilai bisa jadi tidak ada harga pasarnya!
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Root cause
PRICE ≠ VALUE
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Commercial profit from
shrimp farming
9,632
Commercial profit from mangrove
forest
584
Economic return from
shrimp farming (excluding subsides)
1,220
Subsidies-8,412
Economic return from mangrove
including fish nursery
987584
Economic return from
shrimp farming including
restoration cost
1,220
Restoration cost
-9,318
Economic return from mangrove
including storm protection
10,821
987584
Comparison of land use value per ha (South Thailand) – US$/ha
Source: TEEB – D1 (2009, based on Barbier (2007))
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How to achieve a green growth?
Kita tidak pandai berhitung Kita kurang peduli pada hari esok
“The economic invisibility of nature“ (P. Sukhdev)
Non-sustainable behavior = non-sustainable dev’t.
Make the nature economically visible –Disclose their values = eCBA
Mainstream and apply GREEN GROWTH indicators
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Ilmu Ekonomi (Economics)
▪ Ilmu Ekonomi: Bagaimanamengalokasikan sumberdaya yang terbatas(scarcity)
▪ Jargon terpenting dalamilmu ekonomi: efisiensi
▪ UUD’45 Pasal 33 ayat 4: Perekonomian nasionaldiselenggarakan berdasar[…] prinsip […] efisiensi[…]
▪ Apa yang dimaksuddengan‘efisiensi’?
Konsumen
Produsen
Pemerintah
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Economics is about allocation of resources
MembuatBeras
MembuatSenjata
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Economics is about allocation of resources
Decision makers are left with the difficult problem of evaluating and choosing investment projects and assessing policies in a context of significant complexity and uncertainty.
How do we assess whether a public investment project is good for society?
How do we account for the environmental impacts of these investment projects?
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Role of economics
1. Assessing trade-offs →
2. Analyzing the underlying reasons for resource depletion/ environmental degradation
3. Offering options for intervention
scarcity and opportunity cost
Cost benefit analysis, including economic
valuation of environmental goods
and services
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Role of economic analysis
Economic analysis…
Compares all the gains and losses resulting from a project or policy
Summarizes all positive (benefits) and negative (costs) aspects of project or policy
Serves as an organizing framework for stakeholders to discuss the various aspects of project or policy
Aims to provide information about the economic efficiency of project or policy
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Key Issue
Is this a good project?
Which project (option) is better?
For any given project:
For any given groups of projects (or options):
Good or better for whom?
Project proponent OR Government OR Society?
How do we measure ‘good’?
Profits OR Government budget OR Society’s welfare?
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Is this a good project?
For investor For government For society
Private sector Public sector
Conduct a financial analysis or
private cost-benefit analysis
Conduct a fiscal
analysis
Conduct an economicanalysis or social cost-
benefit analysis
These 3 types of analysis are very different from one another and will provide different types of information to different decision-makers.
TERIMA KASIHEEI-Indonesia member of EEPSEA
http://sdgcenter.unpad.ac.id/eei-indonesia/www.eepseapartners.org/indonesia-home/
SDGs Center - Universitas Padjadjaranwww.sdgcenter.unpad.ac.id
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SDGs Center
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