SESI 1_Pengantar Epidemiologi 2009 Final

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    Epidemiologi

    Departemen Epidemiologi

    Fakultas Kesehatan Masyarakat Universitas Indonesia

    1

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    Definisi (1)

    Tidak ada definisi tunggal

    Epidemiologi

    Dari bahasa Greek.

    Epi= atas, pada,

    demos= penduduk,

    logi= studi

    Studi distribusi dan determinan peristiwa

    kesehatan dalam populasi manusia.

    2

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    Definisi (2)

    Hirsch(1883)

    Suatu gambaran kejadian, distribusi, dan tipe penyakit

    manusia, ..

    Frost (1927)

    Ilmu fenomena masal penyakit infeksius, atau seperti

    riwayat alamiah penyakit infeksius suatu ilmu induktif

    yang tidak hanya mendeskripsikan distribusi penyakit,melainkan kesesuaiannya dalam suatu filosofi yang

    konsisten

    3

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    Definisi (3)

    Greenwood ( 1934)

    Epidemiologi adalah studi penyakit sebagai

    fenomena massal

    Lilienfeld(1957)

    Epidemiologi boleh didefinisikan sebagai studi

    distribusi suatu penyakit atau kondisi dalampopulasi dan faktor yang mempengaruhi

    distribusi ini

    4

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    Definisi (4)

    Taylor (1963)

    Studi kesehatan atau penyakit dalam populasi

    McMahon, Pugh, dan Ipsen (1970)Studi distribusi dan determinan frekuensi

    penyakit pada manusia distribusi (epidemiologi deskriptif) dan determinan dari

    distribusi yang tercatat (epidemiologi analitik)

    5

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    Epidemiology Defined Greek roots

    epi = upon (as in epidermis)demos = the people (as in demography)

    ology = to speak of, to study

    Literally - study of epidemics

    Modern definitionsof epidemiologyrefer to

    distributionsin populations (statistical)

    determinants (pathophysiological, environmental,behavioral)

    control of health problems(biological, social,

    economic, political, administrative, legal)Gerstman Chapter 1 6

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    Epidemiology compared

    to medicineMain unit of concern in epi population

    Main unit of concern in medicineindividual

    public healthEpidemiologystudy of

    Public healthorganized effort Epi said to be methodologic backbone of public

    health

    Gerstman Chapter 1 8

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    Definisi (5) Suatu ilmu dasar dari kedokteran pencegahan dan

    kesehatan masyarakat yang mempelajari:

    Penyakit(atau status kesehatan)

    Frekuensi(enumerasi jumlah yang ada atau tingkat

    perkembangan dalam periode waktu spesifik)

    Determinan(faktor yang mempengaruhi distribusi)

    Metode(proses yang dilakukan untuk mendeskripsikanfrekuensi dan distribusi, rasional ilmiah yang digunakanuntuk menentukan kausal distribusi penyakit dalam

    populasi

    Populasi(populasi manusia tertentu) 9

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    EpidemiologiIlmu dasar semua aspek

    kesehatan masyarakat: (1)

    Penyakit infeksi

    Penyakit kronis

    Cedera intensional dan tidak intensional

    Kesehatan mental

    Nutrisi

    10

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    EpidemiologiIlmu dasar semua aspek

    kesehatan masyarakat: (2)

    Pendidikan dan promosi kesehatan

    Perencanaan kesehatan

    Administrasi kesehatan masyarakat

    Pelayanan pengobatan medis

    11

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    Ruang lingkup

    Definisi penyakit

    Kejadian penyakit

    Penyebab penyakit

    Keluaran penyakit

    Pengelolaan penyakit dan pencegahanpenyakit

    12

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    Aktivitas epidemiologi (1)

    1. Pengumpulan dan analisis pencatatan vital

    (kelahiran dan kematian)

    2. Pengumpulan dan analisis data morbiditas

    dari rumah sakit, lembaga kesehatan, klinik,

    dokter dan industri

    3. Pemantauan penyakit dan masalah

    kesehatan komunitas yang lain13

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    Aktivitas epidemiologi (2)4. Investigasi kejadian luar biasa yang

    mengarahkan program pemberantasan ataupencegahan epidemik dan masalah kesehatankomunitas yang lain

    5. Merancang dan melaksanakan penelitiankesehatan

    6. Merancang dan melaksanakan registrasikesehatan untuk masalah yang menjadiperhatian seperti: cacat lahir, insidens kanker,

    atau penggunaan napza 14

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    Aktivitas epidemiologi (3)7. Skrining (penapisan) untuk penyakit

    8. Penilaian efektivitas keberadaan pengobatan

    yang baru

    9. Mendeskripsikan riwayat alamiah penyakit

    10. Identifikasi individu atau kelompok padapopulasi umum terhadap peningkatan risiko

    perkembangan penyakit tertentu

    15

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    Aktivitas epidemiologi (4)

    11. Identifikasi keterkaitan etiologi penyakit

    12. Identifikasi masalah kesehatan masyarakat

    dan pengukuran besar distribusi,

    frekuensi, atau dampak pada kesehatan

    masyarakat

    16

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    Aktivitas epidemiologi (5)

    13. Penilaian program kesehatan

    14. Menyediakan data yang diperlukan untuk

    perencanaan kesehatan atau pembuatan

    keputusan oleh badan administrasi

    kesehatan atau pembuat kebijakankesehatan

    17

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    Who is an epidemiologist ?

    A professional who strives to studyandcontrolthe factors that influence the

    occurrence of disease or health-relatedconditions and events in specified populationsand societies, has an experience in populationthinkingand epidemiologic methods, and is

    knowledgeable about public healthand causalinferencein health(Porta M, Last J, Greenland S. A Dictionary of Epidemiology, 2008)

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    Epidemiologists are required to have someknowledge of:

    Public health:because of the emphasis on disease prevention

    Clinical medicine:because of the emphasis on disease classification and

    diagnosis (numerators)

    Pathophysiology:because of the need to understand basic biological

    mechanisms in disease (natural history)

    Biostatistics:because of the need to quantify disease frequency and its

    relationships to antecedents (denominators, testing hypotheses)

    Social sciences:because of the need to understand the social context in

    which disease occurs and presents (social determinants of health

    phenomena)

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    1.4 Selected Historical Figuresand Events

    Understanding medical history is animportant part of epidemiology

    This section divided into three eras

    400BC 1850

    1850 - 1900

    Twentieth century epi

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    Gerstman Chapter 121

    Historical Figures & Events

    400BC 1850

    Hippocrates (400BCE)

    Age of enlightenment (17th& 18thcenturies)

    John Graunt (1620 1674)

    1850 -1900

    John Snow (1813 1858)

    Germ Theory (mid 19

    th

    century)

    Twentieth century epi

    Modern epidemiology

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    Sejarah perkembangan epidemiologi

    Ahli epidemiologi pertama

    Hippocrates460377 SM

    Ahli Epidemiologi yang pertama Menjelaskan terjadinya penyakit dari dasar yang

    rasional

    Buku yang ditulis: Epidemic I, Epidemic II, On Airs,

    Waters, and Places Memperkenalkan istilah epidemicdan endemic

    22

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    23

    The First Epidemiologists

    Hippocrates 460 B. C. to 377 B.C.

    attempted to explain disease

    occurrence on a rational basis instead

    of from a supernatural view point

    Three major booksEpidemic I

    Epidemic II

    On Airs, Waters, and Places

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    24

    H ippocrates (1)

    Recognized the association

    of various diseases with

    environmental factors

    place

    water conditions

    climate

    eating habits

    housing

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    25

    Hippocrates (2)

    Introduced

    epidemic

    endemic

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    26

    H ippocrates (3)

    Theory about the cause of disease

    personal observation

    Greek thinking Disease is the imbalance of body

    humors

    phlegmblood

    yellow bile, black bile

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    Sejarah perkembangan epidemiologi

    Galen 129

    199 M

    Ahli bedah tentara romawi

    Bapak Fisiologi Eksperimental

    Faktor Prokatartik (cara hidup orang) dan temperamenmempengaruhi kesehatan dan penyakit

    Pengaruh lingkungan (geografi dan iklim)miasma(istilah umum untuk partikel dalam udara)

    Malariaudara buruk Teori miasma

    27

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    28

    Galen (1)

    129 - 199 A.D. Father of experimental physiology

    Health and Disease influenced by

    Procataritic factors

    the way of life a person led

    life style

    Temperament

    the innate qualities of the body

    personality

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    29

    Galen (2)

    Disease caused by Miasma

    particles in the air

    from sources waste

    stagnant water

    decaying animals

    theory used to explain the great

    plague epidemic in Europe

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    Sejarah perkembangan epidemiologi

    Age of enlightenment (17th& 18thcenturies)

    Thomas Sydenham (16241689)

    Hippocrates InggrisBapak Epidemiologi

    Atmosfer mengakibatkan perubahan konstitusiepidemik

    30

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    31

    Thomas Sydenham (1)

    1624 - 1689

    Father of Epidemiologyinsisted that observationshould have

    precedence over theory in the study

    of the natural history of disease

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    Demographic Approach(pp. 1214)

    John Graunt (1620 1674)

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    33

    Sejarah perkembangan epidemiologiDEMOGR PHIC PPRO CH Kelahiran vital statistik

    John Graunt

    Analisis data mortalitas dalam tahun 1662

    Melakukan kuantifikasi yang pertama dari pola

    kelahiran, kematian dan kejadian penyakit

    Mencatat perbedaan laki-laki dan perempuan,kematian bayi yang tinggi, perbedaan urban-

    rural, dan variasi musiman

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    Gerstman Chapter 1 34

    Demographic Approach17thCentury Life Table

    Age % surviving

    6 64

    16 40

    26 25

    36 16

    46 10

    56 6

    60 3

    76 1

    80 0

    John Graunt

    (162074)

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    Epidemiology (Schneider)

    Life Table of Deaths in London

    Age Deaths Survivors

    0 -- 100

    6 36 64

    16 24 40

    26 15 25

    36 9 16

    46 6 10

    56 4 666 3 3

    76 2 1

    80 1 0Source: Graunts Observations1662

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    Epidemiology (Schneider)

    Graunts Observations

    Excess of male births

    High infant mortality

    Seasonal variation in mortality

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    37

    Sejarah perkembangan epidemiologi

    Willian Farr

    Melakukan pengumpulan data secara sistematik

    dan statistik kematian di Inggris

    Bapak Statistik vital moderen dan surveilens

    Memperluas analisis data morbidtas dan

    mortalitas epidemiologi

    Melihat efek status perkawinan, pekerjaan danketinggian

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    Sejarah perkembangan epidemiologiKonsep kontagion dan Teorigermpenyakit

    Hieronymous Frascastorius (14781553) Sastrawan dan dokter dari Italia

    Penyakit disebabkan oleh germ

    Penyakit ditransmisikan dari orang ke orang melalui suatu

    partikel yang sangat kecil

    Igmatz Semmelweis (18181865)

    Ahli Obstetri dari Hungaria

    Demam nifas dapat direduksi jika para dokter mencuci tangan

    sebelum menolong persalinan

    38

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    Downloaded from: StudentConsult (on 29 August 2009 12:10 AM)

    2005 Elsevier

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    Downloaded from: StudentConsult (on 29 August 2009 12:10 AM)

    2005 Elsevier

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    Sejarah perkembangan epidemiologi

    Edward Jenner Mendukung teori Fracastorius

    Menerima teori germ penyakit

    Penemu vaksin cacar (akhir tahun 1700)

    Louis Pasteur Berkontribusi dalam menguatkan teori germ penyakit

    dengan mendemonstrasikan efektivitas imunisasi padapencegahan rabies dalam tahun 1885

    Belum mampu mengisolasi virus rabiesmenghalauteori miasma

    41

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    Sejarah perkembangan epidemiologi

    Studi epidemiologi klasik awalJames Lind

    Melakukan studi epidemiologi ekperimen pada

    etiologi dan pengobatan scurvy (1753) Makan jeruk merupakan obat untuk scurvy

    P L Panum

    Studi epidemiologi klasik tentang penyakit campak dipulau Faroe (1875)

    42

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    Sejarah perkembangan epidemiologi

    John Snow (18131858)

    Ahli anestesi

    Melakukan serial investigasi kolera di London

    Bapak Epidemiologi Lapangan

    Melakukan studi epidemik kolera (1854)

    43

    h d

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    Snows Methods

    Ecological studies compared cholera rates by region

    Cohort compared cholera rates in exposed and

    non-exposed individuals

    Case-control compared water source in cases and

    controls

    Snows

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    Gerstman Chapter 1 45

    Snow s

    Ecological

    Analysis Southwark Water

    Company

    neighborhoods

    high rates

    Mixed service

    intermediate rates

    Lambeth Water Co.neighborhoods

    no cases

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    46

    Deaths from Cholera per according to water company

    supplying subdistricts of London, 1853-1854

    Water Company Population in1851

    Deaths fromCholera

    Deaths rateper 100,000

    living

    Southwark and Vauxhall

    Company

    Lambeth Company

    Both Company

    167,654

    14,632

    301,149

    192

    0

    182

    114

    0

    60

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    The Grand Experiment

    A retrospective study

    X

    O

    X

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    48

    Deaths from Cholera per 10,000 according to water company supplying

    actual houses, London - 1854

    Water Supply Number of

    Houses

    Deaths from

    Cholera

    Deaths in Each

    10,000 Houses

    Southwark and Vauxhall

    Company

    Lambeth Company

    Rest of London

    40,046

    26,107

    256,423

    1,263

    98

    1,422

    315

    37

    59

    Source: Snow (55)

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    Snows Cohort Study (Table 1.7, p. 25)

    Cholera mortality per 10,000 household and water

    source

    Rate Southwark & Vauxhall= 1263 / 40,046

    10,000 = 315 Rate Lambeth= 98 / 26107 10,000 = 37.5

    Southwark & Vauxhall drew water from fecal

    contaminated water region

    Supporting evidence for water-borne transmissiontheory

    49

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    Snows Cohort AnalysesWater Source Cases Homes

    Rate per

    10,000

    Southwark 1263 40,046 315*

    Lambeth 98 26,107 37

    Both 1422 256,423 59

    * Rate, Southwark = 1263 / 40,046

    = .0315 = 315 / 10,000

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    Snows Case-Control Study

    Epidemic area of Golden Square area (1854 epidemic) Interviewed cases and non-cases to determine water source

    Cases

    61 used water from Broad St. pump 6 did not use Broad St. pump

    6 could not determine if used Broad St. pump

    Controls were less likely to use Broad St. pump water

    e.g., Among Brewer workers (non-cases), the men were allowed a

    certain quantity of malt liquor, and Mr. Huggins [the proprietor]believes they do not drink water at all

    Map showing proximity to pump and no. of cases (next slide)

    51

    Cholera Deaths

    Broad St. Outbreak

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    Snows Map (Fig 1.14)

    Vis ali ation S ccess Stories

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    54

    Visualization Success Stories

    From Visual Explanations by Edward Tufte,

    Graphics Press, 1997

    Illustration of John

    Snows

    deduction that a choleraepidemic

    was caused by a bad

    water pump, circa 1854.

    Horizontal lines indicate

    location of deaths.

    John Snow: A Classic Epidemiologic

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    55

    John Snow: A Classic Epidemiologic

    Study

    The Father of field epidemiology

    investigating the outbreak of cholera in Gloden Square of London

    descriptive epidemology --> hypothesis generation --> hypothesis

    testing ---> public health application

    G S C O S

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    56

    Golden Square Cholera Outbreak: John Snow(2)

    Theory

    Hypothesis

    Hypothesis

    test

    Public Health

    Application

    Action

    Water was the source of

    disease

    Correlation of the

    distribution of cholera case

    households and the location

    of water pumps

    Removed the handle of the

    pump in Broad Street

    London Cholera Outbreak: John Snow (3)

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    57

    London Cholera Outbreak: John Snow(3)

    TheoryHypothesis

    Hypothesis

    test

    Public

    Health

    Application

    ActionWater served as vehicle for

    transmitting choler

    based on time, place, and

    person; compared groups

    are comparable

    changing the location ofwater intake to avoid water

    contamination

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    58

    Sejarah perkembangan epidemiologi

    Studi epidemiologi klasik awal James Lind

    Melakukan studi epidemiologi ekperimen

    pada etiologi dan pengobatan scurvy (1753)Makan jeruk merupakan obat untuk scurvy

    S j h k b id i l i

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    Sejarah perkembangan epidemiologi

    S j h k b id i l i

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    Sejarah perkembangan epidemiologi

    S j h k b id i l i

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    Sejarah perkembangan epidemiologi

    S j h k b id i l i

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    62

    Sejarah perkembangan epidemiologi

    Goldberger (1923) Menggunakan studi epidemiologi

    observasional dan eksperimen tentang

    pellagra (defisiensi asam nikotinat)

    J h G ldb (1874 1929)

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    Joseph Goldberger (1874-1929)

    used observational and experimentalepidemiologic methods to identifyvitamin deficiency as the cause ofpellagra;

    identified diets high in cereals andcanned food as a risk factor; provedsources of fresh animal protein and

    legums were effective in prevention;first nutritional epidemiologist.

    S j h k b id i l i

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    Sejarah perkembangan epidemiologi

    Hill, Doll, Wynder, Cornfield and other Post world warII epidemiologists. World War II is a convenientwatershed to mark the risk of the "modernepidemiologists", since this coincides with theemergence of chronic disease as major causes ofmorbidity and mortality;

    focuses on individual risk factors; hallmarked bystudies on :

    smoking and lung cancer, The SurgeonGeneral's Report on Smoking and Health,

    the Framingham heart studies, water fluoridation trials, and

    the poliomyelitis field trials of 1954.

    Maturation of Epidemiology

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    atu at o o p de o ogy(1910 - 1945)

    Key methodologic developments include theadvancement of epidemiologic theory,

    outbreak investigation methods,

    methods to study non-infectiousdiseases (case-control and cohortmethods),

    the introduction of randomized clinicaltrials, and new survey methods

    developed by Goldberger in the study ofpellagra).

    Also, changes in the education ofphysicians and health care took place inthe 1910s and 1920s, respectively

    Last half of 20th Century

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    y("Modern Epidemiology")

    The epidemiologic transition from acutecontagious to chronic non-contagiouscauses of morbidity effected the wayepidemiologists studied disease

    Illustrative examples

    British Doctors Study (Doll & Hills studiesof the effects of smoking)

    Framingham Heart Study (risk factors forheart disease, many investigators)

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    Sejarah perkembangan epidemiologi

    Doll dan Hill (1950) Studi Merokok dan kaitannya dengan kanker paru dan studi penyakit

    kardiovaskular pada penduduk Framingham, Massachusetts

    (Dawber, Kannel, dan Lyell, 1963. Gordon, Castelli,Hjortland, Kannel, dan Dawber, 1977) Riset epidemiologi pada penyakit kronik

    (Freedman, Chear, Srinivasan, Webber, dan Berenson, 1985)

    Bogalusa Heart Study

    (Stamler, Wentworth, dan Neaton, 1986) Multiple Risk Factor Intervention Trial

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    Doll and Hill, 1952

    Lung cancer

    cases

    Controls OR

    Smoke 25+ per

    day

    331 (24%) 166 (12%) 17.4

    Smoke 5-24 per

    day

    1019 (75%) 1130 (83%) 7.8

    Non-smoker 7 (1%) 61 (5%) 1

    Estimated 10-Year CHD Risk in55 Year Old Adults According to Levels of

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    55-Year-Old Adults According to Levels of

    Various Risk Factors Framingham Heart Study

    A B C D

    Blood Pressure (mm Hg) 120/80 140/90 140/90 140/90

    Total Cholesterol (mg/dL) 200 240 240 240

    HDL Cholesterol (mg/dL) 50 50 40 40

    Diabetes No No Yes Yes

    Cigarettes No No No Yes

    5

    13

    25

    58

    20

    27

    37

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    35

    40

    A B C D

    Esti

    mated10-YearRate(%

    )

    Men

    Women

    Estimated 10-Year Stroke Risk in 55-Year-Old Adults

    A di l f V i Ri k F

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    2.6 4

    5.4

    8.4

    1.1 2

    19.1

    22.4

    14.8

    27

    6.3

    3.5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    30

    A B C D E F

    Estimated10-YearRate

    (%)

    Men W omen

    According to Levels of Various Risk FactorsFramingham Heart Study

    A B C D E F

    Systolic BP* 95-105 130-148 130-148 130-148 130-148 130-148Diabetes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes

    Cigarettes No No No Yes Yes Yes

    Prior Atrial Fib. No No No No Yes Yes

    Prior CVD No No No No No Yes

    Sou rce: Stro ke 1991;22:312-318. *BP in millimeters of mercury (mmHg)

    22 4

    27

    25

    30

    (%)

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    2.6 4

    5.4

    8.4

    1.1 2

    19.1

    22.4

    14.8

    6.3

    3.5

    0

    5

    10

    15

    20

    25

    A B C D E F

    Estimated10-YearRate

    Men W omen

    A B C D E F

    Systolic BP* 95-105 130-148 130-148 130-148 130-148 130-148

    Diabetes No No Yes Yes Yes Yes

    Cigarettes No No No Yes Yes Yes

    Prior Atrial Fib. No No No No Yes Yes

    Prior CVD No No No No No Yes

    Estimated 10-year stroke risk in 55-year-old adults

    according to levels of various risk factors (FHS).Source: Wolf et al., Stroke.1991;22:312-318.

    *BP in millimeters of mercury (mmHg)

    Offspring CVD Risk by Parental CVDSt t F i h St d

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    Status: Framingham Study

    0

    0,5

    1

    1,5

    2

    2,5

    MEN WOMEN

    NONE

    MATERNAL

    PATERNAL

    Risk Ratio

    2.5

    2

    1.5

    1

    0.5

    0Men Women

    1.0

    1.7

    2.2

    1.0

    1.7 1.7

    Adjusted for: age, total/HDL Chol. ratio, SBP, smoking, diabetes, BMI

    Parental CVD

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    73

    Aplikasi

    EpidemiologiAudit

    Pelayanan

    Kesehatan

    Keluaran

    dan

    Prognosis

    LingkunganGenetikLife styleRisikoPenyakit

    Riset

    Pelayanan

    Kesehatan

    EtiologiPenyakit

    Kebutuhan

    kesehatan

    penduduk

    EPIDEMIOLOGI

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    74

    Kontribusi epidemiologi (1)

    Penyelidikan modus transmisi penyakit baru

    Penentuan sebab-sebab penyakit yang dapat dicegah

    Penentuan riwayat alamiah penyakit Pengamatan spektrum penyakit

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    75

    Kontribusi epidemiologi (2)

    Penilaian intervensi kesehatan komunitas

    Penyusunan prioritas pemberantasan penyakit

    Perbaikan diagnosis, pengobatan dan prognosispenyakit klinis

    Peningkatan riset pelayanan kesehatan

    Penyediaan saksi ahli dalam pengadilan

    History of Epidem iology

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    y p gy

    HIPPOCRATES (400 BC): On A irs, Waters, and

    Places Hypothesized that disease might beassociated with the physical environment,including seasonal variation in illness.

    JOHN GRAUNT (1662): Nature and Pol i t icalObservat ion s Made Upon the Bi l ls ofMortal i ty First to employ quantitativemethods in describing population vitalstatistics.

    JOHN SNOW (1850): Formulated naturalepidemiological experiment to test thehypothesis that cholera was transmitted by

    contaminated water.

    Histo ry o f Epidem iology (cont .)

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    Histo ry o f Epidem iology (cont .)

    DOLL & HILL (1950): Used a case-controldesign to describe and test the associationbetween smoking and lung cancer.

    FRANCES at al. (1950): Huge formal field trialof the Poliomyelitis vaccine in schoolchildren.

    DAWBER et al. (1955): Used the cohortdesign to study risk factors forcardiovascular disease in the FraminghamHeart Study.

    Brief History of Epidemiology

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    Spring, 1999

    Jan

    Risser,

    PhD

    WillRisser,

    Brief History of Epidemiology

    Classical Infectious Diseases Epidemiology

    Edward Jenner (1749-1823)

    developed a vaccine against smallpox using cow pox

    160 years before virus was identified

    John Snow (1813-1858)

    described the association between dirty water and cholera

    44 years before vibrio was identified

    Ignaz Semmelweis (1818-1865)

    described the association between childbed fever andphysicians unclean hands

    32 years before causal agent was discovered

    Brief History of Epidemiology

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    Spring, 1999

    Jan

    Risser,

    PhD

    WillRisser,

    Brief History of Epidemiology

    Classical Nutritional Epidemiology

    James Lind (1716-1794) conducted an experiment which showed that scurvy could

    be treated and prevented with limes, lemons, and oranges

    ascorbic acid was discovered 175 years later

    Joseph Goldberger (1874-1927)

    identified that pellagra was not infectious but nutritional

    in origin and could be prevented by increasing the amount

    of animal products in the diet and substituting oatmeal for

    corn grits niacin was discovered 10 years later

    Brief History of Epidemiology

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    Spring, 1999

    Jan

    Risser,

    PhD

    WillRisser,

    Brief History of Epidemiology

    Epidemiology of Chronic Diseases

    Observational Studies:R Doll & AB Hill. Early case-control study. Smoking and

    carcinoma of the lung: Preliminary report. [Br. Med. J. 2:739, 1950]

    Cohort Studies:

    An approach to longitudinal studies in a community: theFramingham study. 10,000 residents gave baseline

    information. Follow-up is now 50 years. [Annals New YorkAcademy of Sciences 107:539;1963]

    Brief History of Epidemiology

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    Spring, 1999

    Jan

    Risser,

    PhD

    Will

    Risser,

    Brief History of Epidemiology

    Epidemiology of Chronic Diseases

    Experimental Studies:

    Hypertension Detection and Follow-up Program Cooperative

    Group. 10,500 subjects randomly assigned to two groups:

    1. stepped care - antihypertensive therapy increased stepwise to achieve

    and maintain blood pressure reduction to goal.

    2. Referred care - subjects were referred to their primary care physician and

    treated as usual.

    mortality stepped care 9.0/100 referred care 9.7/100

    final blood pressure 84.1 in stepped care 89.1 in referred care

    Brief History of Epidemiology

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    Spring, 1999

    Jan

    Risser,

    PhD

    Will

    Risser,

    Brief History of Epidemiology

    Epidemiology of Chronic Diseases

    Physician Health Study

    randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind clinical trial

    conducted entirely through the mail

    22,071 male physicians enrolled to study the effects of aspirin on

    cardiovascular disease and the effects of beta-carotene on cancer randomly assigned to one of four groups

    aspirin beta carotene

    active active

    active placebo

    placebo active

    placebo placebo

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    ROOTS OF MODERN EPIDEMIOLOGY

    1. ACUTE DISEASE INVESTIGATION

    ----- Emphasis on empirical systematic

    investigation, biology, and

    environment/host manipulation

    2. MEDICINE

    ----- All early epidemiologists were

    physicians.

    ROOTS OF MODERN EPIDEMIOLOGY

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    ROOTS OF MODERN EPIDEMIOLOGY

    3. STATISTICS

    ----- Emphasis on the scientific method,

    quantification and measurement,

    and hypothesis testing. In 1960s, many

    epidemiologists were statisticians.

    4. SOCIAL SCIENCES

    ----- Investigation of human behavior in

    relation to disease, and methods of

    data collection (surveys, etc.)

    ROOTS OF MODERN EPIDEMIOLOGY

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    ROOTS OF MODERN EPIDEMIOLOGY

    5. COMPUTER SCIENCES----- Emergence of chronic disease

    epidemiology required the ability to

    handle large amounts of data and to

    perform complex analyses.

    6. MANAGERIAL SCIENCES

    ----- Management principles for acquisitionof grants, research collaboration, and

    management of clinical trials.

    ROOTS OF MODERN EPIDEMIOLOGY

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    ROOTS OF MODERN EPIDEMIOLOGY

    7. GENOMICS----- 2001 marked first publication of

    draft sequences of the human

    genome. Intensive investigations beingconducted to identify disease

    susceptibility genes gene-

    environment interactions, and

    gene-gene interactions.

    Classical e s s Mode n

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    Classical versus Modern

    Applications

    Classical:descriptive, observational, field,analytical, experimental, applied,

    healthcare, primary care, hospital, CD,NCD,environmental, occupational,psycho-social, etc

    Modern:risk-factor, molecular, genetic,life-course, CVD, nutritional, cancer,disaster, etc