Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the...

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Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability: California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush, Jay Famiglietti, Hans-Peter Plag University of California, Berkeley & Berkeley National Laboratory Modeling Support Branch, California Department of Water Resources Hydrologic Modeling Center, University of California, Irvine Nevada Geodetic Laboratory, University of Nevada, Reno IGCP 565 4rd Annual Meeting University of Witwatersrand Johannesburg, South Africa 22 November 2011

Transcript of Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the...

Page 1: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability:California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin

Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush, Jay Famiglietti, Hans-Peter Plag

University of California, Berkeley & Berkeley National Laboratory

Modeling Support Branch, California Department of Water Resources

Hydrologic Modeling Center, University of California, Irvine

Nevada Geodetic Laboratory, University of Nevada, Reno

IGCP 565 4rd Annual Meeting

University of Witwatersrand

Johannesburg, South Africa

22 November 2011

Page 2: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios

SRES

IPCC 2001

Page 3: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,
Page 4: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

SENSITIVITY OF SNOWFED HYDROCLIMATE TO A +3ºC WARMING … Rain? or Snow?

•What fraction of each year’s precipitation historically fell on days with average temperatures just below freezing?

Less vulnerable More vulnerable

Computed from UW’s VIC model daily INPUTS Courtesy Mike Dettinger.

+3

Page 5: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

Images from: http://education.usgs.gov/california

Groundwater recharge—precipitation/elevation relationship

Page 6: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

Statistically Downscaled Temperature and Precipitation

Page 7: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

Sacramento-Delta, 1242m, 1181km2

Kings - Pine Flat, 2274m, 4292km2

Merced - Pohono Br, 2490m, 891km2

NF American - NF Dam, 1402m, 950km2

Feather - Oroville, 1563m, 9989km2

Analysis of the Hydrologic Response

• Miller et al. 2003 • National Weather

Service – River Forecast System Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting Model (Burnash 1973)

• Anderson Snow Model for computing snow accumulation and ablation (Anderson 1973)

Page 8: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

Diminishing Sierra Snowpack% Remaining, Relative to 1961-1990

Miller et al. 2003

Page 9: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

•Approach:•Recreate drought scenarios considering historic data

•Managed Surface Water Drought Scenarios • 10 year spin-up; • Duration: 10, 20, 30, 60 year managed droughts• Intensity: Dry, Very Dry, Critical defined as 30, 50, 70 % effective reduction• 30 year rebound period

• All simulations used fixed 1973-2003 precipitation, urban demands, cropping etc.

Drought ExperimentsDrought Experiments

Page 10: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

Analysis of Snowpack Reduction Impacts on California Groundwater Water Infrastructure

Using DWR C2VSIM Model

C2VSIM - California Central Valley Simulation Model

Domain: ~ 20,000 square miles

Page 11: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

FrameworkFinite Element Grid

– 3 layers– 1393 nodes– 1392 elements

Surface Water System– 75 river reaches– 2 lakes– 97 surface water diversion

points– 6 bypasses

Land Use Process– 21 subregions– 4 Land Use Types

• Agriculture• Urban• Native• Riparian

Simulation periods– 10/1921-9/2003 (<8 min)– 10/1972-9/2003 (<4 min)

Page 12: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,
Page 13: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

Hydraulic Conductivity

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C2VSIM Performance – HeadsR305 – Initial Calibration

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C2VSIM Performance - Flows

Page 16: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

BASELINE

Relative WT Change (Feet)

Climate simulations using the IPCC SRES output indicates California Snowpack will be reduced by 60-90% by 2100.

Simulating drought scenarios acts as an analogue to climate warming and provides us with a means to analyze impacts.

Central Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseCentral Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseJoint LBNL-CDWR Drought Simulation

•Baseline - no surface water reduction

•Drought - 30 - 70 percent surface water reduction

•All simulations used fixed 1973-2003 precipitation, urban demands, cropping etc.

Page 17: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

10 YEARS

Miller et al. 2006

Relative WT Change (Feet)

DRY

30 PERCENT EFFECTIVE REDUCTION IN MANAGED SURFACE FLOW.

Central Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseCentral Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseJoint LBNL-CDWR Drought Simulation

Page 18: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

20 YEARS

Miller et al. 2006

Relative WT Change (Feet)

DRY

30 PERCENT EFFECTIVE REDUCTION IN MANAGED SURFACE FLOW.

Central Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseCentral Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseJoint LBNL-CDWR Drought Simulation

Page 19: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

30 YEARS

Miller et al. 2006

Relative WT Change (Feet)

DRY

30 PERCENT EFFECTIVE REDUCTION IN MANAGED SURFACE FLOW.

Central Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseCentral Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseJoint LBNL-CDWR Drought Simulation

Page 20: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

60 YEARS

Miller et al. 2006

Relative WT Change (Feet)

DRY

30 PERCENT EFFECTIVE REDUCTION IN MANAGED SURFACE FLOW.

Case II: Initial Central Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseCase II: Initial Central Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseJoint LBNL-CDWR Drought Simulation

Page 21: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

10 YEARS

Miller et al. 2006

Relative WT Change (Feet)

VERY DRY

50 PERCENT EFFECTIVE REDUCTION IN MANAGED SURFACE FLOW.

Central Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseCentral Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseJoint LBNL-CDWR Drought Simulation

Page 22: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

20 YEARS

Miller et al. 2006

Relative WT Change (Feet)VERY DRY

50 PERCENT EFFECTIVE REDUCTION IN MANAGED SURFACE FLOW.

Central Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseCentral Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseJoint LBNL-CDWR Drought Simulation

Page 23: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

30 YEARS

Miller et al. 2006

Relative WT Change (Feet)

VERY DRY

50 PERCENT EFFECTIVE REDUCTION IN MANAGED SURFACE FLOW.

Central Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseCentral Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseJoint LBNL-CDWR Drought Simulation

Page 24: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

60 YEARS

Miller et al. 2006

Relative WT Change (Feet)VERY DRY

50 PERCENT EFFECTIVE REDUCTION IN MANAGED SURFACE FLOW.

Central Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseCentral Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseJoint LBNL-CDWR Drought Simulation

Page 25: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

10 YEARS

Miller et al. 2006

Relative WT Change (Feet)

CRITICAL

70 PERCENT EFFECTIVE REDUCTION IN MANAGED SURFACE FLOW.

Central Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseCentral Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseJoint LBNL-CDWR Drought Simulation

Page 26: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

20 YEARS

Miller et al. 2006

Relative WT Change (Feet)

CRITICAL

70 PERCENT EFFECTIVE REDUCTION IN MANAGED SURFACE FLOW.

Central Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseCentral Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseJoint LBNL-CDWR Drought Simulation

Page 27: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

30 YEARS

Miller et al. 2006

Relative WT Change (Feet)

CRITICAL

70 PERCENT EFFECTIVE REDUCTION IN MANAGED SURFACE FLOW.

Central Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseCentral Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseJoint LBNL-CDWR Drought Simulation

Page 28: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

60 YEARS

Miller et al. 2006

Relative WT Change (Feet)

CRITICAL

70 PERCENT EFFECTIVE REDUCTION IN MANAGED SURFACE FLOW.

Central Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseCentral Valley Water Table ‘Relative’ ResponseJoint LBNL-CDWR Drought Simulation

Page 29: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

C2VSIM

Sub-Regions

Page 30: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,
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Page 32: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,
Page 33: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

QualifiersQualifiers

•C2VSIM and ALL water allocation models are only partially verified. Many empirical parameters are tuned.

•The groundwater processes lack sufficient physical descriptions.

•Groundwater total mass and variation is not known.

•Pumping is based on a limited available demand record.

•Demand is fixed and agriculture does not shift with change in supply.

Page 34: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,
Page 35: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,
Page 36: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

Assimilation of “DWR Groundwater depth measurements” and “GRACE” total change in terrestrial water storage with

CLM4.

• 1. CLM4 is run over the test region using custom-made high resolution 1km dataset containing high resolution DEM and Soil texture data.

•2. Assimilate the well measurement data and GRACE at monthly time step with the CLM4 simulation over the test region. The assimilation takes into account change in water table depth at well sites and the total TWS change over the whole region.

•  • 3. The assimilation krigs a new watertable depth at the various

cells using the calculated CLM4 data and the observation data. The method uses the method of simple kriging and kriging with external drift.

Page 37: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

1 km resolution run over California.

Simulated 1-km Water Table Depth for California

Meters

Page 38: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

SFREC test site

Page 39: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

Test Region (SFREC)

Page 40: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

Monthly time step Assimilation flowchart, Repeated every month

Page 41: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

Conclusions

• Groundwater is 0.8 percent of total water, but it is 2.8 percent of total freshwater.

Page 42: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

Conclusions

• Groundwater is 0.8 percent of total water, but it is 2.8 percent of total freshwater.

• Groundwater acts as a water resource insurance during droughts.

Page 43: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

Conclusions

• Groundwater is 0.8 percent of total water, but it is 2.8 percent of total freshwater.

• Groundwater acts as a water resource insurance during droughts.

• Direct monitoring is very sparse.

Page 44: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

Conclusions

• Groundwater is 0.8 percent of total water, but it is 2.8 percent of total freshwater.

• Groundwater acts as a water resource insurance during droughts.

• Direct monitoring is very sparse.• Indirect monitoring requires new techniques that allow

for bridging spatial gaps.

Page 45: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

Conclusions

• Groundwater is 0.8 percent of total water, but it is 2.8 percent of total freshwater.

• Groundwater acts as a water resource insurance during droughts.

• Direct monitoring is very sparse.• Indirect monitoring requires new techniques that allow

for bridging spatial gaps.• GRACE, GPS, and well data assimilations into

dynamic surface-groundwater models are needed.

Page 46: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

Conclusions• Groundwater is 0.8 percent of total water, but it is 2.8 percent of

total freshwater.• Groundwater acts as a water resource insurance during droughts.• Direct monitoring is very sparse.• Indirect monitoring requires new techniques that allow for bridging

spatial gaps.• GRACE, GPS, and well data assimilations into dynamic surface-

groundwater models are needed.• Hindcast validation is required for advancing high-resolution

groundwater monitoring.

Page 47: Groundwater Monitoring and Management for Sustainability : California Pilot Test and Transfer to the Nile Basin Norman L. Miller, Raj Singh, Charles Brush,

THANK YOU !