Nile Hydropolitics in the Nile Basin - Aalto University
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Transcript of Nile Hydropolitics in the Nile Basin - Aalto University
HYDROPOLITICS HYDROPOLITICS IN THE NILE BASININ THE NILE BASIN
Ana
Elis
a Ca
scão
Stoc
khol
m In
tern
ation
al W
ater
Insti
tute
Lecture at Aalto UniversityLecture at Aalto UniversityHelsinki - FinlandHelsinki - Finland7 November 20117 November 2011
The River(s)The River(s)
Contribitution to Nile flowsContribitution to Nile flows
Annual (average)
Flood period
(average)
Eastern Nile Basins
(from Ethiopia)
Blue Nile 59% 68%
Tekezze/Atbara 14% 5%
Baro-Akobo/Sobat
13% 22%
Total Ethiopia 86% 96%
Equatorial Nile Basin
White Nile 14% 5%
The HydrologyThe Hydrology
The TopographyThe TopographyBlue Nile source
White Nile source
Ethio-Sudan border
Egypt’s
terri
tory
The land/waterscapesThe land/waterscapesEgypt
The land/waterscapesThe land/waterscapesNorth Sudan
Southern Sudan
The land/waterscapesThe land/waterscapes
Ethiopia
Lake Victoria
The land/waterscapesThe land/waterscapes
UgandaKenyaTanzaniaRwandaBurundiD.R. Congo
The The Water Water availability/utilisationavailability/utilisation
84 bcm / average84 bcm / average
Little utilisation
Little utilisation
How much water are Egypt and Sudan
utilising?
Water allocations defined by the 1959 Agreeement for the Full Utilisation of the Nile Waters
The 1959 AgreementThe 1959 Agreement
Current water utilisation of the Nile waters
?
The storage capacityThe storage capacity
169
8.7 3.5
-
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
bcm
.
Egypt Sudan Ethiopia
The ripariansThe riparians
EGYPTSUDANETHIOPIA +
Equatorial states
Geography
Geography
Geography
Material power
Material power
Material power
Bargaining power
Bargaining power
Bargaining power
Ideationalpower
Ideationalpower
Ideationalpower
Power asymmetriesPower asymmetries
The enduring conflictThe enduring conflict
Control
Contribution
Utilisation
Donwstream
U
pstream
Allocation
Equitable utilisation
DevelopmentBenefits- Sharing
Towards CooperationTowards Cooperation
Donwstream Upstream
HydropoliticsHydropolitics
(HYDROPOLITICAL) REGIONAL SECURITY
COOPERATION:Development opportunities
Basin-wide approachInvestment projectsLegal negotiations
Donors support
CONFLICT:Asymmetric water-sharing / utilisation
Non-inclusive water agreements (contested) Uneven water developments
Securitisated hydropolitics
Past
Since mid-
1990s
The cooperation processThe cooperation process
since 1999 1997-2007 2012!?
The Two-Track processThe Two-Track process
NILE BASIN INITIATIVE COOPERATIVE FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT
Nile Basin InitiativeNile Basin Initiative
GOAL
Benefit-Sharing Paradigm
NBI Operational NBI Operational StructureStructure
NBI ‘philosophy’NBI ‘philosophy’
NBI ProgramsNBI Programs
NBI DonorsNBI Donors
The legal negotiationsThe legal negotiations
New Agreement Renegotiation of volumetric
allocations Prior use Acquired rights Prior Notification “New water” No-harm Principle
River Basin Organisation
STATUS QUO
New Agreement Renegotiation of volumetric
allocations New uses Acquired rights Prior Notification Investment Equitable and reasonable
utilisation Principle River Basin Organisation
STATUS QUO
?
DOWNSTREAM RIPARIANSDOWNSTREAM RIPARIANS UPSTREAM RIPARIANSUPSTREAM RIPARIANS
NILE COOPERATIVE
FRAMEWORK AGREEMENT
[...]
Article 14b: “(...) the Nile Basin States therefore agree, in a spirit of cooperation, to work together to ensure
that all states achieve and sustain water security and not to significantly affect the water security
of any other Nile Basin State."
Egypt/Sudan proposal:“(...) the Nile Basin States therefore agree,
in a spirit of cooperation, to work together to ensure that all states achieve and sustain water security and not to adversely affect the water security
and current uses and rights of any other Nile Basin State.”
[...]
2007-2010: 2007-2010: The deadlock The deadlock
No water
allocations
included in the
agreement
POTENTIAL
Collective bargaining power
Challenge/Pressure
Balance of power
Changes in the status quo
Framework for ‘equitable utilisation’ (institutionalisation)
LIMITS
Agreement without Egypt?
Implementation challenges
Egypt’s response
Geopolitics
Donors behaviour
Access to investment
2010: The big challenge!2010: The big challenge!
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3 Scenario 4
Future scenarios (as per 2009)Future scenarios (as per 2009)
Meanwhile... Meanwhile...
Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011Nile Basin Political Economy pre-2011
Changing realpolitik: new geopolitical actors, corridors, dynamics, ...
Changing realpolitik: new geopolitical actors, corridors, dynamics, ...
‘Land grabbing’: Growing economic interest for Nile natural resources
‘Land grabbing’: Growing economic interest for Nile natural resources
Regional integration:Towards economic
multilaterism
Regional integration:Towards economic
multilaterism
Unilateralism:Unilateral hydraulic
development
Unilateralism:Unilateral hydraulic
development
Hydropolitics pre-2011Hydropolitics pre-2011
Official ‘dyad’
UpstreamBloc
2011: Tipping point(s) in the 2011: Tipping point(s) in the hydropolitical trajectory in the Nile Basinhydropolitical trajectory in the Nile Basin
More [email protected]