Global New Vehicle Fuel Economy Update - Alex Körner, François Cuenot - International Energy...
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Global New Vehicle Fuel Economy Update First Results Transforming Transportation 2013 Presented at Transforming Transportation 2013 Alex Körner, François Cuenot International Energy Agency (IEA)
Transcript of Global New Vehicle Fuel Economy Update - Alex Körner, François Cuenot - International Energy...
Global New Vehicle Fuel Economy Update First Results!
Transforming Transportation 2013!
! Presented at Transforming Transportation 2013!
! Alex Körner, François Cuenot!! International Energy Agency (IEA)!
© OECD/IEA 2012
Global New Vehicle Fuel Economy Update First Results
Alex Körner, François Cuenot
Transforming Transportation, 18th January 2013
© OECD/IEA 2012
Content
n Introduction n Methodology n FE/CO2 Results by country n FE/CO2 Global results n 2010-2011 OECD deep-dive n New Fleet key technical characteristics
evolution n Conclusions
© OECD/IEA 2012
Introduction
n Update of the 2011 “International comparison of light-duty vehicle fuel economy and related characteristics” IEA-authored GFEI working papers: l Adding 2010 and 2011 l Adding Korea and Canada to cover G19 (KSA
missing) n sponsored by UNEP-raised GEF SSFs and EU
commission grants. n New report to be released in March
© OECD/IEA 2012
Methodology
n New vehicle registrations data from Polk l By brand, model, powertrain, fuel, power,…but: l Vehicle segment/class missing l Empty weight is missing l CO2/FE missing:
n Manual input based on model sales sampling l Satisfactory representativity when CO2/FE >75% of
sales n Making number match official numbers when
available
© OECD/IEA 2012
Vehicle Segments
© OECD/IEA 2012
Data sources for FE / CO2 information n No test cycle conversion Country Publication name
DoE / EPA Fuel Economy ratingshttp://www.fueleconomy.gov/ 轻型汽车燃料消耗量通告 通告日期http://gzly.miit.gov.cn:8090/datainfo/miit/babs2.jspCar Fuel Data Booklethttp://www.vcacarfueldata.org.uk/Consommation conventionnelles de carburant et émissions de gaz carboniquehttp://www2.ademe.fr/servlet/getDoc?cid=96&m=3&id=52820&p1=00&p2=12&ref=17597Green Vehicle Guide Factsheetshttp://www.greenvehicleguide.gov.au自動車燃費一覧
http://www.mlit.go.jp/jidosha/jidosha_mn10_000001.htmlIndicadores de Eficiencia Energética y Emisiones Vehiculareshttp://www.ecovehiculos.gob.mx/Automobil Revue cataloguehttp://katalog.automobilrevue.ch/소비자 체감에 부합하는 새로운 연비표시 방법 확정http://bpms.kemco.or.kr/transport_2012/main/main.aspx
Mexico
Swiss
Korea
US
China
UK
France
Australia
Japan
© OECD/IEA 2012
gCO2 emissions per km for new PLDVs
© OECD/IEA 2012
Fuel consumption per 100 km for new PLDVs - OECD
© OECD/IEA 2012
OECD Average emissions (gCO2/km)
Emission reduc9on rate
Market growth
2010 2011 2010 -‐ 2011 2010 -‐ 2011 France 130.5 127.7 -‐2.1% -‐2.1% Italy 132.7 129.5 -‐2.4% -‐11.6% EU 27 140.3 135.7 -‐3.3% -‐9.6% Japan 140.5 134.4 -‐4.3% -‐16.4% Turkey 145.2 139.3 -‐4.1% 16.4% UK 144.2 138.1 -‐4.2% -‐4.4% Germany 151.2 145.6 -‐3.7% 8.8% Chile 163.7 160.8 -‐1.8% 22.4% South Korea 171.3 171.5 0.1% 0.6% Mexico 186.2 180.8 -‐2.9% 17.4% Canada 190.5 189.6 -‐0.4% 1.4% USA 194.7 192.8 -‐0.9% 9.9% Australia 207.9 204.2 -‐1.8% -‐2.6%
OECD 165.1 164.3 -‐0.5% -‐1.8%
2010-11 progress deep dive
© OECD/IEA 2012
Fuel consumption per 100 km for new PLDVs – Non-OECD
© OECD/IEA 2012
FE progress tracking vs. GFEI target
n New vehicles in OECD almost achieve the GFEI annual fuel
consumption reduction target n New vehicles in Non-OECD show a slight annual fuel
consumption reduction over the last three years n The global reduction rate is still far off the target due to a shift
in market from OECD to non-OECD n Each year lost makes the target harder to be reached
2005 2008 2010 2011 2030Annual change
2005-‐2008
Annual change
2008-‐2011
Annual change
2005-‐2011
Required annual change 2005-‐2030
Required annual change 2012-‐2030
OECD average 8.1 7.6 7.0 7.0 -‐2.3% -‐2.6% -‐2.5%Non-‐OECD average 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.3 0.4% -‐0.9% -‐0.3%Global average 8.0 7.6 7.2 7.1 -‐1.8% -‐1.9% -‐1.9%GFEI target 8.0 4.0 -‐2.7% -‐3%
© OECD/IEA 2012
PLDVs by segment
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005
2008
2010
2011
2005
2008
2010
2011
2005
2008
2010
2011
OECD Non-‐OECD World
Pick-‐up/SUV
Van/LCV
Small SUV/Van/LCV
F
E
D
C
B
A
© OECD/IEA 2012
FE by vehicle size
n Shift towards bigger vehicle prevented FE improvement in non-OECD
© OECD/IEA 2012
PLDVs by displacement
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005
2008
2010
2011
2005
2008
2010
2011
2005
2008
2010
2011
OECD Non-‐OECD World
>3200
2801-‐3200
2401-‐2800
2001-‐2400
1601-‐2000
1201-‐1600
801-‐1200
<800
unknown
© OECD/IEA 2012
PLDVs by power
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005
2008
2010
2011
2005
2008
2010
2011
2005
2008
2010
2011
OECD Non-‐OECD World
>200
151-‐200
101-‐150
71-‐100
51-‐70
<50
unknown
© OECD/IEA 2012
LCV influence – country dependant
© OECD/IEA 2012
Future updates
n Engage countries/OEMs in providing their official registrations data for this work l Partially worked in Chile with the ICCT/CmCh
baseline report l Links with Renault and the AAA (data provider for
OICA) n Parametric analysis to be done by KG Duleep
using FIA Foundation funding n Cross-database access sharing with all GFEI
partners
© OECD/IEA 2012
Conclusions n Improvement rate has accelerated in OECD
markets, and is almost matching the GFEI target rate l Policies (and GFEI actions) fruitful
n In non-OECD, situation does not show much progress l More policies (and more GFEI actions) are needed,
especially to limit vehicle size shift. n Lot of potential analysis from the database
l More resources would be welcome
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