Ghude s 20150707_1700_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_34
-
Upload
ingrid-le-ru -
Category
Science
-
view
155 -
download
0
Transcript of Ghude s 20150707_1700_upmc_jussieu_-_amphi_34
Air Pollution and Climate Change linkages and Health Impact Assessment
Evaluating air quality impact on mortality and crop yields in South Asia
Sachin D. Ghude Chinmay Jena,
Speaker: Dilip Chate ([email protected]) G.Beig Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology ,Pune, India R. Kumar G. Pfister M.Barth National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), Boulder, USA V. Ramanathan S Cripps Institute of Oceanography, UCSD, San Diego, USA
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
Outline
Premature mortality in India for population exposure to O3 and PM2.5 levels
Motivation
Life losses and economic damage
Conclusion
Future scope
Reductions in crop yields due to surface ozone levels: a case study for India
Motivation
Crop production losses and economic damage
Conclusion
Future scope
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
In a U.S. multicity study, Bell et al. (2004): a 10-ppb
increase in 24-hr average O3 concentration show a 0.52%
increase in all-cause mortality.
In 12 major cities in Canada, Burnett et al. (2004):
a 30.6-ppb change in 2-day moving average O3 concentration
with a 2.74% change in non-accidental mortality.
Lelieveld, et al. (2013): Globally, the premature
mortality rate for population exposure to O3 levels is ~0.8
million/year with highest rate for India
Background and Motivation for population exposure to O3
Cont……….
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
No study either with model simulations or with air
quality monitoring network data found to be focused on finer
spatial scale over India, where population over 1.25 billion of
different quality of life are living in the variety of environments
across the 29 states and 7 union territories.
Atmospheric NOx, SOx, CO, BC shows much better
correlations with ambient PM levels.
In India, respiratory disease for population exposure to
O3 concentrations found to be of magnitude similar to those by
PM (Lelieveld, et al. 2013) and not an artifact of confounding
by air pollution due to PM
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
Lelieveld, et al Atmos. Chem. Phys. 13, 7737–7766, 2013
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
SO2
HIGHLY WATER-SOLUBLE GASES
DO NOT REACH THE LUNGS
IRRITATING THE AIRWAY EPITHELIUM OF THE
UPPER RESPIRATORY TRACT
98% OF SO2 MAY BE ABSORBED IN THE
NASOPHARYNX DURING NASAL BREATHING
NO2
POORLY WATER-SOLUBLE GAS
DEPOSITS FAR MORE
PERIPHERALLY IN A RESPIRATORY TRACT
DOES NOT REACH THE ALVEOLI
O3
DOES NOT DISSOLVE IN WATER
REACHES THE LUNGS
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
When O3 is absorbed through the lining of the lung, it
creates free radicals in the lining of the lung that damages
lung function.
So the people most at risk from O3 exposure are those
with impaired breathing. O3 inhalation causes inflammation
in the lungs and the bronchia.
Once exposed to O3, respiratory system tries to prevent
it from entering lungs. This reflex reduces the amount of
oxygen inhale. Inhaling less oxygen makes hearts to work
harder.
For people already suffering from cardiovascular
diseases or respiratory diseases like asthma, high O3 episodes
can be debilitating and even fatal to them.
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
Air Quality under Public Scrutiny
2/3rd of the deaths and lost life-years
associated with air pollution on a global
scale occur in Asia
PM concentrations in most of the
megacities in South Asia frequently
exceed the air-quality limits
NAAQ Standards
WHO-AQG
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
Air quality concerns
Metro Cities/Urban Areas 90 non-attainment cities 32% population leaves in urban areas Dominant Sources: Vehicular Emissions, Small/Medium Scale Industries, Gensets, Biomass burning, etc. Pollutants: NOx, SPM/RSPM & CO
Critically Polluted Areas 26 critically polluted areas (3 times exceed NAAQS) Dominant Sources: Industries-Power Plants, Refineries, Chemical Plants Pollutants: NOx ,SPM/RSPM, SO2 VOCs, PAHs, etc.
Rural Areas Indoor air pollution: Use of Biomass, Coal, kerosene, etc. Outdoor air pollution: Unpaved roads, Biomass burning, Gen-sets etc. Pollutants: SPM/RSPM, CO, etc.
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
Reasons for high Air Pollution in India
(1) Poor quality of fuel
(2) Wrong citing of industries
(3) Old process technology
(4) Poor vehicle design
(5) Predominance of older vehicles
(6) Inadequate inspection and maintenance facilities
(7) Uncontrolled growth of vehicle population
(8) No pollution control system for small/medium scale industries
(9) Reduced performance of thermal power plant
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
Deposition of PM in the Respiratory system
> 5 μm
<< 0.1 μm
0.2-1.5 μm
Deposition of mono-disperse particles
diameter (1-26 µm) in ideal respiratory
system geometry solved using Renolds
averaged Navier-Stokes turbulent model for
inhalation flow rates of 30 to 90 l/min
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
24%
OC
Nitrate
Ammonium
EC
OP
Sulfate
5%
4%
Urban Aerosols Fractions
37%
11%
19%
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
WRF-Chem (Hourly ozone PM2.5)
Meteorology Emission Dist wise Population
>NAAQS
AP Gridded Premature mortalities
Gridded (CP) Population
Total mort
(sum CPL)
Economic damage
General outline of the different steps involved in the data analysis for estimate premature mortalities
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
Domain : South Asia (0 - 45° N, 55 -110 ° E)
Period : One Year ( 2005, Hourly simulations)
Resolution : 36 km x 36 km
Meteorology : NCAR NCEP/FNL
Gas Ph. Chem : MOZART
Aero Ph. Chem : GOCART
Boundary Cond. : MOZART-4 (updated every 6-h)
Photolysis :Madronich F-TUV A. Emissions : HTAP-V2
Fire Emission : NCAR Fire Inventory (FINN) (plume rise)
Biogenic : MEGAN (online)
WRF-Chem Simulation for Year 2005
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
Relative Risk (RR) for Different health endpoints
Economic Loss (Value of loss output)
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
Surface daytime averaged O3 and PM2.5 (2 4-h averaged) During winter and Summer season 2011
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
All cause premature mortalities due to O3 and PM2.5 exposure
625,047 excess cases (53% IGP Region)
355,046 excess cases (47% IGP Region)
1.2 billion
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
Indian State-wise premature mortalities due to O3 and PM2.5 exposure
State-wise lost life expectancy for population exposure to PM2.5 and economic loss for population exposure to O3 and PM2.5
lost life expectancy is 1.65±0.5 year Delhi: 4.2±1.4 years
Economic loss = 110.2 million USD
Conclusions:
Our study suggests that the widespread PM2.5 and Ozone
pollution under present emission levels has considerable
impact on human mortalities and life expectancy in India.
The present-day premature mortalities due to PM2.5 (625,000) and
Ozone (355,000) exposure caused approximately 110.2 million USD
economic loss, which is sufficient enough to provide medical care to
1.81 million people in India. April 2015, the Environmental Ministry of Government of India launched
a national Air Quality Index (AQI) as a major aggressive initiative for
improving air quality in urban areas, for air pollution-mitigation and to
meet clean- air standards for reducing the public health risk.
Results may have important policy implications considering the projected
future increase in PM2.5 and Ozone
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
Emissions (Megacity scale)
Global scale Emissions
Cross-boundary Transports
Recommendations
Air Quality/Weather Network
(monitored, forecasts )
Population Exposure
assessments Health Outcomes
Multi-pollutant relative risks for different UV exposure, temperature, RH
Interpretations
Future Scope on Atmospheric Pollution and Human Health in India
Data + Research
Environmental Health Index Module
Regional Emissions
Global Emissions
Weather Data
Air Quality data
SAFAR AQMS-AWS
IITM NETWORK
Current/Forecast 1. EHI 2. Age 3. Health
advisories
Conceptual Framework for Environmental Health Index
Environmental Health Index
Health Data
(ICD-10)
ICMR/Medical Org Age/gender/occupation
/address/diagnosis /date in &out/Mortality
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
Fluorescence imaging: soybean plant responses to
elevated levels of ozone (Kim, et al., 2001)
What do we know about ozone Impact on vegetation and ecosystem?
Damage leaf and reduce growth & yield
Reduce carbon uptake by metabolizing less CO2 (indirect global Warming)
Reduces carbon flow from atmosphere to roots and reduces nitrogen fixation in soil (nitrogen runoff)
Reduce canopy evapo-transpiration and soil water (increase sensible heat)
Adams et al., 1989, adapted by Chameides et al., 1999
• India is World’s third largest food producer
• Food grain production increased from 130 M tons in 1980 to 240 M tons in 2010 ($260B/year) behind China and USA
• Yield/hectare is low as per world standards (60th)
• Wheat yield is: 3 tons/hectare compared with 12 tons/hectare in industrialized countries
• POTENTIALS by 2030: • Global Average power house with $164B exports ($30B now) • Average output of $ 620 B/yr • Income of rural households increase six fold
Relevant statistics Maitra and Zainulbhai,2013; Reimagining India.McKinsey Co
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
Yield has gone up between 1970 – 2011, But…
GDP share of agriculture has fallen from 43% to 16%
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
Trend in wheat production in top wheat producing states in India…
Burney and Ramanathan, 2015, PANS
Avg warming+ 0.7 C Monsoon Rainfall: -7%
Climate Changes over India
Burney and Ramanathan, 2015, PANS
Another cause could be the Air Pollution…….
Future Change in O3
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
Problem of Food Security
With only 2.3% share in world’s total land area, India has to ensure Food security of its ~1.25 billion population.
National Food Security Bill (Sept. 2013)
Ensure availability of sufficient food grains for domestics demand and access to adequate quantity of subsidies food for 820 million people
Under the provision of bill, about 61.2 Mt of cereals (27.6 Mt of wheat and 33.6 Mt of
rice) is expected to distribute annually in which ~820 million poor populations are able to purchase 60 kg of rice/wheat per person annually at subsidized rates (~@USD 3) prescribed by the Government of India.
Agriculture is broadest economic sector, plays a significant role in socio-economic fabric.
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
WRF-Chem (Hourly ozone)
Meteorology Emission Dist wise
Crop production
AOT40
RYL (a*AOT40)
Grided Crop production loss
(CPL)
Dist wise sowing dates
Grided (CP) Crop
production
Soybeans Cotton Wheat Rice (a=0.0113) (a=0.0151) (a=0.163) (a=0.0445)
Mills et al. 2007, corrected AOT40 for offset
Total Loss
(sum CPL)
Economic damage
CPL=RYL/(1-RYL) x CP
Dingenen et al., 2009
General outline of the different steps involved in the data analysis to estimate crop production loss
Domain : South Asia (0 - 45° N, 55 -110 ° E)
Period : One Year ( 2005, Hourly simulations)
Resolution : 55 km x 55 km
Meteorology : NCAR NCEP/FNL
Gas Ph. Chem : MOZART
Aero Ph. Chem : GOCART
Boundary Cond. : MOZART-4 (updated every 6-h)
Photolysis :Madronich F-TUV A. Emissions : INTEX-B (For NOx: Intex-B, EDGAR v2.2, MACCity, REAS, Top Down)
Fire Emission : NCAR Fire Inventory (FINN) (plume rise)
Biogenic : MEGAN (online)
WRF-Chem Simulation for Year 2005
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
Comparison between observed and simulated NOx over India for different emission estimate and respective surface ozone distribution (for Jan-2005)
We used integrated approach
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
Yield for various crops during 2005
Source: Special data dissemination standard-Directorate of economics and statistics (SDDS-DES),
Ministry of Agriculture, Government of India.
Concentration: response functions (Mills et al., 2007, were scaled such that relative yield is equal to 1 at zero exposure) We consider 90 days period over 15th June- 15th September as a kharif growing season for soybean, cotton and rice. December – February as rabi growing season for wheat For rice we allow exposure both during kharif and rabi season depending upon seasonal rice production fields and fraction of total annual rice production within each season
AOT 40 (Accumulation exposure over threshold of 40 ppb). n
AOT 40 = ([O3] – 40)i for [O3] > 40 ppb (radiation > 50 W m-2) i=1
Exposure metrics (AOT40) and exposure response functions
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
Simulated daytime (> 50 W/m2 global radiation ) mean surface ozone concentration
Kharif (Cotton, Rice & Soybeans)
Rabi (Wheat & Rice)
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
Model Evaluation with observations (Delhi)
(Pune)
Wheat production and loss (Rabi) during 2005
Production : 71 MT
Loss : 3.5 (± 0.8) MT
Rice production and loss (Kharif) during 2005
Production : 95.1 MT
Loss : 2.1 ( ± 0.8) MT
Soyabean production and loss (Kharif) during 2005
Production : 8.6 MT
Loss : 0.23 (± 0.16) MT
Cotton production and loss (Kharif) during 2005
Production : 3.3 MT
Loss : 0.17 (± 0.10) MT
Aggregated reduction for top ten wheat and rice producing sates in India
Wheat loss is greatest in Maharashtra (17%) Rice loss greatest in Punjab (8%) Punjab and Haryana (< 1%)
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
Estimated Economic Loss (year 2005) due to ozone damage
Commodities Production
(million tone)
Loss
(million tone)
Fraction loss
(%)
Economic
damage
(billion USD)
Soyabean 8.6 0.23 (±0.16) 2.7 (±1.9) 0.06 (±0.12)
Cotton 3.3 0.1 (±0.10) 5.3 (±3.1) 0.07 (±0.04)
Wheat 71 3.5 (±0.8) 5.0 (±1.2) 0.62 (±0.15)
Rice 95.1 2.1(±0.8) 2.1(±0.9) 0.54 (±23)
Total Economic Loss : 1.29 (± 0.47) billion USD2005
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
Conclusion:
Nationally aggregated relative yield loss of wheat, Rice, Cotton and Soybeans due to high O3 exposure totals 5.6 million tons amounting ~1.3 billion USD2005 Economic loss.
National aggregated yield loss of wheat and rice of 5.6 is roughly about 12% of the cereals require every year ( 61.2 Mt) under the provision of food security bill, or sufficient to feed approximately 94 million poor people(~32%) living below poverty line in India
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
Future scope:
1. Develop South Asia Specific dose response curve
2. Look at the impact of aerosols and winter time fog on crop yield
Decreases ground reaching radiation (reduce photosynthesis) Fog reduces radiation Fog acidity (unknown) 3. Climate impact
Increase in temperature Decrease in rainfall Increase in CO2
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
SA specific Concentration Response (CR) Function
This Study: -0.007 × AOT40 Mills (2007): -0.004 × AOT40
RICE
Wheat
This Study: -0.019 × AOT40 Mills (2007): -0.016 × AOT40
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)
Thank you
CFCC, 7-10th July, UPMC Jussieu - Amphi 34, UNESCO, Paris (France)