Marchant r 20150707_1700_upmc_jussieu_-_room_103

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Understanding the past to develop a sustainable future: the value of the East African palaeoecological record Rob Marchant, Claudia Capitani, Philip Platts, Dereje Denu, Mathew Mathayo Mpanda, Dickens Odeny, Peter Omeny, Tadesse Woldemariam Gole, Joyce Ininda, Faith Karanja, Ensermu Kelessa, Chris Oludhe, Geoffrey Mwchala, Geroge Ogutu, Philip Omondi, Amos Majule, Marion Pfeifer, Fergus Sinclair and Daryl Stump

Transcript of Marchant r 20150707_1700_upmc_jussieu_-_room_103

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Understanding the past to develop a sustainable future: the value of the East African palaeoecological record

Rob Marchant, Claudia Capitani, Philip Platts, Dereje Denu, Mathew Mathayo Mpanda, Dickens Odeny, Peter Omeny, Tadesse Woldemariam Gole, Joyce Ininda, Faith Karanja, Ensermu Kelessa, Chris Oludhe, Geoffrey Mwchala, Geroge Ogutu, Philip Omondi, Amos

Majule, Marion Pfeifer, Fergus Sinclair and Daryl Stump

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A B C D E F

Past Historical Modern Present Future

Marchant and Lane. 2015 Jn Arch Sci

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A B C

E F

H I

D

G

Land-use, climate change and Livelihoods in Amboseli

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Rucina et al. The Holocene 2009

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Open savanna woodland driven by arid climate / high elephant population

More closed savanna woodland driven by mesic climate / declining elephant population

More closed savanna woodland and extensive wetland driven by mesic climate / declining elephant population

More closed savanna woodland driven by fire, human population / declining elephant population

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CO2

Significant implications for ecosystem management

Animals make a difference

Fire Grazing

WUE

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Konso agriculture described as one of a

select few “lessons from the past” by a

UN FAO report entitled The conservation

and rehabilitation of African lands

Archaeology of Agricultural Resilience in Eastern Africa

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“Ultimately, the Engaruka works proved

unsustainable and their failure forced its

inhabitants to migrate”

(Conte 2004: 25)

Engaruka; the past as

negative precedent

Engaruka; the past as

positive precedent

“Once established, the land-use system at

Engaruka was sufficiently resilient to survive

and even intensify during a much drier

climate from c. 1500 to 1670 CE (Common

Era)”

(Westerberg et al. 2010: 304)

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Gillson and Marchant 2014 TREE

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Platts et al., 2014 African Journal of Ecology

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Beneath the canopy

Pfeifer et al. 2014, Rem. Sens.

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Natural Man-

made

How do climate and land use affect canopy structure?

Pfeifer, et al. 2014, Rem. Sens.

Relationship with moisture index can be used to infer impacts of canopy structure and interaction with ambient climate and climate change scenarios

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Social Scenario

development

• 189 participants from 7 zones

• 89% Men

• 51% delegates of Local Governments (Regions and Districts)

• 49% representing NGOs, CSOs, private business

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MAIN DRIVERS OF FOREST DEGRADATION (BAU)

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Land use change model: preliminary results on land use BAU Green Economy

MOSHI

MBEYA

LINDI

TANGA

BABATI

BUKOBA

MWANZA

MUSOMA

ARUSHA

TABORA

SONGEA

IRINGA

KIBAHA

MTWARA

SINGIDA

MOROGORO

SHINYANGA

SUMBAWANGA

KIGOMA-UJIJI

DAR ES SALAAM

MAIN CHANGES IN THE BAU SCENARIO

Conversion to cultivated

Conversion to grassland

Degradation

MPANDA

MOSHI

MBEYA

LINDI

TANGA

BABATI

BUKOBA

MWANZA

MUSOMA

ARUSHA

TABORA

SONGEA

IRINGA

KIBAHA

MTWARA

SINGIDA

MOROGORO

SHINYANGA

SUMBAWANGA

KIGOMA-UJIJI

DAR ES SALAAM

MAIN CHANGES IN THE GE SCENARIO

Conversion to cultivated

Conversion to grassland

Degradation

MPANDA

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What to do with all this output?

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Future developments

Map spatio-temporal rate and direction of change for key species and crops.

Integrate information to characterise ecosystem dynamics at fine grain size – to capture climate and ecosystem trends under different states.

Apply the developing scenario approach to integrate environmental, ecological and social interactions such hydrology, biodiversity, carbon, people and livelihoods.

Change in non-climatic factors – particularly landuse, demographics, crop choice, social change

Training and dissemination - facilitating