FTTH Europe Panorama - ftthcouncil.eu Council Europe... · Top 15 countries by Homes passed as at...

FTTH Forecast for EUROPE

Europe Broadband status

FTTH Council Europe Conference – March 12-14th, 2019 - Amsterdam

Roland Montagne

Principal Analyst

+33 (0)4 67 14 44 26

[email protected]

www.idate.org

Market forecast by 2020 and 2025

© IDATE DigiWorld 2019 – p. 2Enlighten your digital future!

Methodology

ACTIONS

Results

▪ Mission on behalf of the FTTH Council Europe – 17th edition

▪ Provide a forecast overview of FTTH/B European markets by 2020 and 2025

Bottom-up

methodologyScope

• Individual analysis of 15 countries

based on Top 15 countries by Homes

passed

• Study of EU28 and EU39 (1)

countries

• Desk research

• Direct contacts with leading players

and IDATE partners within countries

• Information exchange with FTTH

Council Europe members

• Both quantitative and qualitative data

• Forecasts for years 2020 and 2025

(1) EU39 = EU28 (excl. Cyprus) + 4 CIS countries + Andorra, Iceland,

Israel, Macedonia, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland, Turkey


• Strategic plans from telecom players

towards high-speed broadband

enhancement

• Willingness to provide public funds

• Municipality/utility players can

accelerate fibre development in

remote areas, where private operators

don’t have any incentives to deploy

• Impact of cable operators switching

to FTTH/B to gain market advantages

• Impact of mobile broadband

enhancement

• Green-field housing and systematic

deployment of FTTH in any new build

housing

Supply criteria

• Impact of infrastructure costs

• Impact of copper-based DSL

improvements with new emerging

variants, such as G.Fast.

• Impact of cable-based networks with

DOCSIS 3.1

• Regulatory changes at European

and national level to create a common

commitment to FTTH

• Impact of macroeconomic

environment and economical trends

Others

• Broadband services take-up since

average speeds continue to rise for

households

• Data consumption keeps growing

due to an intensive use of video

content, high-definition streaming

which demand high bandwidth

capacity

• People in rural areas still not covered

by high-speed connections would like

to be connected to NGN

Demand criteria

Forecast study – Factors taken into account


Indicators affecting the FTTH adoption

Positive criteria

Regulatory framework and public incentives to promote FTTH deployments (ex.

Gigabit Society targets set for 2025) 1Governments have been revising their Digital Infrastructure strategy to focus on Fibre

and 5G leading to higher availability of public funds dedicated to enhancing fibre-

based networks2

Progressive switch-off for copper-based infrastructure and move towards high-speed

fibre3Data demands and video content growth leading to higher bandwidth and lower

latency needs (Resilience, symmetricity of Bandwidth)4

Both incumbents and alternative ISPs shifting their core business towards FTTH5Municipalities/Utilities to expand fibre networks in remote areas where not always

economically viable for private players6Fibre densification driven by 5G deployment & cost savings from fibre-5G

convergence7


Indicators affecting the FTTH adoption

Negative impacts

Copper-based DSL improvements with new emerging variants could delay FTTH

enhancement1

Mobile 5G broadband technology substituting FTTH in non economically viable areas 2Deployment costs are still very high for FTTH technologies (however costs are

following a downward trend YoY)3

Non-feasible business model for isolated areas4Some initiatives are facing administrative barriers that are delaying fibre expansion in

areas not yet covered.5


Forecast study – Individual analysis of 15 European countries

Top 15 countries

by Homes passed

as at Sept. 2018

EU39 countries

covered in FTTH

Panorama

Bulgaria

France

Germany

Italy

Kazakhstan

Netherlands

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Russia

Spain

Sweden

Turkey

Ukraine

UK


European FTTH/B Forecasts (2012-2025)

FTTH/B Subscribers Forecasts (million)Comparison EU28 / EU39

Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE

Evolution of FTTH/B Homes Passed (million)Comparison EU28 / EU39

6 812

1520

2430

3947

56

68

82

97

109

1620

3136

4552

60

71

83

97

114

132

152

168

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Total EU28 Total EU39

30 3651 57

6773

8192

104115

130144

155166

6477

108

126140

149160

174189

203

220

237250

263

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Total EU28 Total EU39


European FTTH/B Forecasts (2012-2025)

FTTH/B Take-up Rates Forecasts (Subs over Homes Passed, in %)Comparison EU28 / EU39

20.3% 21.3%24.1%

26.4%

30.2%33.4%

37.0%

42.0%45.2%

49.0%

52.7%

57.1%

62.5%65.6%

25.7% 26.2%28.5% 28.9%

32.0%34.8%

37.4%40.7%

44.2%

48.0%51.8%

55.9%

60.6%63.8%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Subs / HP EU28 Subs / HP EU39

2019 should be a

turning point


Top 15 Countries by FTTH/B Homes Passed in 2020 & 2025

European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Homes passed (in million homes)


2025 Forecasts

EU28 : ~166m FTTH H.P.

EU39 : ~263m FTTH H.P.

% Evolution

2018 / 2020

+2%

+33%

+0.5%

+11%

+81%

+27%

+184%

+12%

+62%

+5%

+44%

+4%

+40%

+12%

+3%

2020 Forecasts 2025 Forecasts% Evolution

2018 / 2025

+6%

+858%

+81%

+230%

+551%

+2%

+86%

+24%

+169%

+29%

+112%

+9%

+11%

+35%

+6%


Top 15 Countries by FTTH/B Subscribers in 2020 & 2025

European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Subscriptions (million)

2020 Forecasts


2025 Forecasts

EU28 : ~109m FTTH Subs.

EU39 : ~168m FTTH Subs.% Evolution

2018 / 2020

+20%

2025 Forecasts

+33%

+63%

+31%

+47%

+90%

+43%

+171%

+50%

+67%

+74%

+118%

+306%

+48%

+22%

% Evolution

2018 / 2025

+78%

+5567%

+233%

+92%

+1006%

+760%

+190%

+237%

+82%

+261%

+527%

+170%

+96%

+202%

+73%


Top 15 Countries by Household penetration

European ranking in terms of Household penetration

Subscriptions / Households (in %)

24.8%

28.2%

31.6%

33.2%

35.5%

42.5%

53.0%

61.2%

62.6%

69.9%

70.3%

71.7%

81.0%

83.2%

90.3%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

Germany

Turkey

Poland

Italy

Ukraine

Kazakhstan

Bulgaria

Russia

France

Netherlands

Romania

United Kingdom

Sweden

Spain

Portugal

Penetration forecast

in 2025

EU28 : 46.2%

EU39 : 44.7%

Penetration forecast

in 2020

EU28 : 17.3%

EU39 : 20.4%


2020 Forecasts 2025 Forecasts


FTTH / FTTB architecture

Positive FTTH evolution : Fibre closer to end-users by 2025

FTTH Architecture & Technology trends

57.8%

42.2%

FTTH FTTB

2020 Forecasts

55.6%

44.4%

FTTH FTTB

FTTH/B at Sept. 2018

63.8%

36.2%

FTTH FTTB

2025 Forecasts




2020 ForecastsPON/Ethernet ratio at

Sept. 2018

2025 Forecasts

48.4%51.6%

PON Ethernet


PON / Ethernet

PON solutions will tend to be predominant in the coming years



2020 ForecastsMDU / SDU ratio at

Sept. 2018

72.1%

27.9%

MDU SDU

70.6%

29.4%

MDU SDU

67.2%

32.8%

MDU SDU


MDU / SDU ratio

Evolution towards the delivery of individualized fibre services by 2025

2025 Forecasts


Key conclusions

▪ Public incentives towards fibre-based technologies will accelerate FTTH growth throughout Europe

▪ Some major private players will be migrating from copper-based and cable-based architectures to full-fibre

solutions in the coming years (e.g. BT in UK / Deutsche Telekom in Germany). Certainly, these substantial

investments will be a key enabler of growth.

▪ Delayed responses by incumbents have led to increased investment in alternative FTTH operators,

triggering accelerated network builds by the incumbent (UK, Italy)

▪ More agreements to deploy FTTH services between private players, utilities companies and local

authorities are evolving towards a convergent portfolio where different services can be provided using the

same infrastructure (telecom services, smart cities solutions and utilities)

▪ Based on recent announcements, 5G will be a key factor for the promotion of fibre deployments and

therefore, it will boost investments from public and private players.

▪ Evolution from previous years have showed that cable-based and copper-based ISPs have started to

diversify its core technologies towards fibre. Certainly, many of these players have implemented full fibre

solutions and it can be appreciated that FTTH services are now part of its service portfolio.

1GROWTH

2BUSINESS

EVOLUTION

3TECHNO-

SYMBIOSIS


Appendix


Appendix – FTTH/B Homes Passed/Subscribers YoY (in millions)

Source: IDATE for FTTH Council

EUROPE

1.0 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.6 1.7

2.9 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1

-

1

2

3

4

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Subs Homes passed

Bulgaria (95% Coverage / 34% Take-up / 32% Homes

connected)

France (45% Coverage / 43% Take-up / 19% Homes

connected)

5.77.4

9.311.3

13.515.5

17.319.013.3

15.717.7

19.3 20.5 21.7 22.9 24.1

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Subs Homes passed

Germany (7% Coverage / 31% Take-up / 2% Homes

connected)Italy (24% Coverage / 17% Take-up / 4% Homes

connected)

0.9 1.2 1.4 1.8

3.8

6.0

8.5

10.5

3.1 3.6 4.35.2

9.0

14.0

17.020.0

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Subs Homes passed

1.1 1.92.9

4.15.4

6.78.1

9.2

6.3

9.211.4

13.615.7

17.619.3

20.8

-

5

10

15

20

25

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Subs Homes passed

Take-up rate = FTTHB Subs /

FTTHB HP

© IDATE DigiWorld 2019 – p. 18Enlighten your digital future! Source: IDATE for FTTH Council

EUROPE

Kazakhstan (44% Coverage / 34% Take-up / 15% Homes

Connected)

Netherlands (39% Coverage / 51% Take-up / 20% Homes

Connected)

Poland (28% Coverage / 18% Take-up / 5% Homes

connected)

Portugal (99% Coverage / 37% Take-up / 37% Homes

connected)

1.11.5

1.92.3

2.62.9 3.1 3.33.2 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.3

-

1

2

3

4

5

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Subs Homes passed

1.6

2.33.0

3.84.5

5.05.4

5.7

3.1

3.84.4

5.05.5

6.06.3 6.5

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Subs Homes passed

0.7 1.11.6

2.12.6

3.23.9

4.64.0

5.2

6.57.5

8.49.2

10.010.8

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Subs Homes passed

1.62.0

2.6

3.33.6

3.9 4.1 4.2

4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6

-

1

2

3

4

5

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Subs Homes passed



FTTHB HP


EUROPE

Romania (73% Coverage / 53% Take-up / 38% Homes

Connected)

Russia (84% Coverage / 42% Take-up / 35% Homes

Connected)

Spain (98% Coverage / 45% Take-up / 44% Homes

Connected)

Sweden (91% Coverage / 48% Take-up / 44% Homes

Connected)

3.33.8

4.34.7

5.15.4

5.76.06.3

6.77.0

7.3 7.5 7.7 7.9 8.1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Subs Homes passed

20.2 22.2 24.3 26.5 28.8 31.1 33.536.0

47.9 48.6 49.0 49.4 49.7 50.0 50.3 50.5

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Subs Homes passed

7.9

9.510.5

11.512.5

13.614.4

15.2

17.6 17.7 17.7 17.7 17.8 17.8 17.9 17.9

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Subs Homes passed

2.1

2.5

3.0

3.53.7

3.9 4.0 4.14.4

4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8

2

3

4

5

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Subs Homes passed


FTTHB HP



EUROPE

Turkey (36% Coverage / 31% Take-up / 11% Homes

Connected)

Ukraine (59% Coverage / 17% Take-up / 10% Homes

Connected)

United Kingdom (10% Coverage / 13% Take-up / 1.3%

Homes Connected)

2.6 3.1 3.8 4.55.3 6.0 6.7

7.58.3

9.510.5

11.512.5

13.514.4

15.4

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Subs Homes passed

1.9 2.2 2.83.5

4.24.9

5.66.3

10.811.6 11.9 12.2 12.5 12.8 13.1 13.4

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Subs Homes passed

0.4 0.8 1.53.2

6.0

11.0

17.0

21.0

2.84.5

8.0

12.0

17.0

21.024.0

27.0

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Subs Homes passedTake-up rate = FTTHB Subs /

FTTHB HP


FTTH Europe Panorama - ftthcouncil.eu Council Europe... · Top 15 countries by Homes passed as at...

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