FTTH Europe Panorama Council Europe... · 2020. 12. 2. · COVID19: FTTH Forecast for EUROPE...

COVID19: FTTH Forecast for EUROPEEuropean FTTH/B status

FTTH Council Europe Conference –2020

Roland MontagnePrincipal Analyst

+33 (0)4 67 14 44 [email protected]

www.idate.org

Market forecast by 2020 and 2026 reviewed after COVID-19 initial wave during 2020

© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 2Enlighten your digital future!

As measured during September 2019 in EU39: 70.4 million FTTH/B subscribers Almost 172 million FTTH/B Homes Passed

Market Panorama Revisited - FTTH/B figures as of September 2019

FTTH/B Subscribers Homes Passed evolution

FTTH Council Europe scope at September 201939

countries covered

Coverage rateEU28 : 39.4%EU39 : 49.9%

Take-up rateEU28 : 43.3%EU39 : 40.9%

EU28 countries

Countries under study

16.1 20.130.5

36.244.5 52.6

61.270.4

60.273.4

98.1

115.2130.1

141.1153.0

172.2

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

December2012

December2013

December2014

September2015

September2016

September2017

September2018

September2019

Mill

ion

FTTH/B Subscribers FTTH/B Homes Passed

FTTH/B European market evolution (EU39)In terms of Homes Passed and Subscribers (2012-2019)

X 4.4 X 2.9

Trends from 2012 to 2019

Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE

® IDATE DigiWorld 2020


Methodology

ACTIONSResults

Mission on behalf of the FTTH Council Europe – 18th edition

Provide a forecast overview of FTTH/B European markets by 2020 and 2026

This is an updated version once COVID-19 impacted in Q2 in Europe. Many plans and budget in Europe were reformulated according to the new reality in terms of broadband demand and financial resources

Bottom-up methodology

Scope

• Individual analysis of 15 countriesbased on Top 15 countries by Homespassed

• Study of EU27+UK and EU38+UK (1)countries

• Based on feedback from all main operators, service provider associations and regulatory contacts in each country

• Desk research

• Direct contacts with leading playersand IDATE partners within countries

• Information exchange with FTTHCouncil Europe members

• Information was compared toprevious forecast efforts.

• Apply Forecast Model based onSupply/Demand Criteria.

• Both quantitative and qualitative data

• Adjusted Forecasts for years 2020and 2026 after COVID-19 impacted

• Results are compared with localintelligence sources, includingregulator and other recentpublications where available andappropriate.

(1) EU39 = EU27 (excl. Cyprus) + 4 CIS countries, UK, Andorra, Iceland, Israel, Macedonia, Norway, Serbia, Switzerland, Turkey


• Strategic plans from telecom players towards high-speed broadband deployments once COVID-19 impacted in the European region.

• Public Funds allocated from governments to deploy fibre networks.

• New Initiatives from Municipality/utility players to accelerate fibre development in remote areas, where private operators don’t have any incentives to deploy.

• Copper switch off initiatives delimited by many players.

• Cable operators migrations to FTTH/B

• Green-field housing and systematic deployment of FTTH in any new build housing

Supply criteria

• Impact of infrastructure costs • Impact of copper-based DSL

improvements with new emerging variants, such as G.Fast.

• Impact of cable-based networks with DOCSIS 3.1 and coming DOCSIS 4.0

• Impact of networks sharing agreements and new deployments based on co-investment among players.

• Regulatory changes at European and national level to create a common commitment to deploy FTTH networks.

• Impact of macroeconomic environment and economical trends: teleworking as a new dynamic and the creation of new business models.

• We recognize that plans for FTTH rollout may be impacted by buildout resource availability (Manpower).

Others

• Broadband services take-up.Average speeds continue to rise for households and new dynamics after COVID-19 impacted

• Data consumption keeps growing due to new confinement dynamics (teleworking and remote studying) that force the intensive use of video content, high-definition streaming which demand high bandwidth capacity.

• Demands to accomplish EC Digital Agenda goals by 2020 and 2025

• People in rural areas still not covered by high-speed connections demanding access to NGNs. People moved to rural areas as a way to reduce virus exposure.

• National and Digital Agendas pushing to accelerate fibre deployments

Demand criteria

Forecast study – Factors taken into account


Indicators affecting the FTTH adoptionPositive criteria

More plans have been announced in European countries towards 5G’s implementation. These plans are pushing fibre deployments which makes FTTH services closer to end users.

Governments are promoting the deployment of fibre networks as part of their digital agendas to provide higher data speeds to more people. These initiatives also include the allocation of public funds in order to reach also rural areas with FTTH. More people doing teleworking activities in more isolated areas to avoid virus exposure.

Many players have announced the switch-off of their copper-based infrastructure and migration towards full fibre solutions

COVID-19 has pushed data traffic and new broadband demands since people need to stay at home. This is pushing towards a scalable technology, like fibre, with higher bandwidth and lower latency needs (Resilience, symmetricity of Bandwidth)

Municipalities/Utilities have announced the expansion of fibre networks in remote areas where not always economically viable for private players. Increase in FTTH network sharing agreements between players. including more appetite for single-build deployments utilising wholesale and infrastructure-centric network builders.


Indicators affecting the FTTH adoptionNegative impacts

Improvement in current copper-based technologies (G.Fast,Vectoring) or cable-based technologies (DOCSIS 3.1/4.0) could delay FTTH rollout in many countries up to 2023

Mobile 5G / LEO technology may substitute FTTH in non economically viable areas

Deployment costs are still very high for FTTH technologies versus wireless solutions

Some digital agendas have set a delimited data speed without mentioning FTTH as the specific technology to deploy. This will promote technology diversification, but it will make FTTH deployment slower.

Initiatives to deploy full fibre solutions in dense and remote areas is not yet a common message in Europe. Therefore, public funds to deploy fibre in rural areas could be restricted.

Lack of voucher schemes in many countries is delaying FTTH demand and copper switch off implementation.

The ability for network builders to build Fibre infrastructure in line with existing plans (and 2025 goals) is a growing industry concern.

5G


Forecast study – Individual analysis of 15 European countries

Top 15 countries by Homes passed as at Sept. 2019

Belarus

France

Germany

Italy

Kazakhstan

Netherlands

Poland

Portugal

Romania

Russia

Spain

Sweden

Turkey

Ukraine

UK


European FTTH/B Historical and Forecasts (2012-2026)

FTTH/B Subscribers Forecasts (million)Comparison EU27+UK / EU38+UK


Evolution of FTTH/B Homes Passed (million)Comparison EU27+UK / EU38+UK

16 20 30 36 45 53 61

70 86

103 122

145

170 191

208

6 8 13 16 20 26 32 38 49

62 77

95 117

134 148

FTTH/B Subscribers - EU38+UK FTTH/B Subscribers - EU27+UK

60 73

98 115

130 141 153 172

195 220

247 268

286 303

317

26 32 41 47 57 65 74 88

105 123

144 164

179 192 202

FTTH/B HP - EU38+UK FTTH/B HP - EU27+UK


European FTTH/B Historical and Forecasts (2012-2026)

FTTH/B Take-up Rates Forecasts (Subs over Homes Passed, in %)Comparison EU27+UK / EU38+UK

23.4% 24.9%

30.6%33.4% 35.7%

39.3%42.5% 43.3%

46.4%50.3%

53.1%57.6%

65.2%69.9%

73.3%

26.8% 27.4%31.1% 31.4%

34.2%37.3%

40.1% 40.9%43.9%

46.9%49.5%

54.0%59.4%

62.9%65.4%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Subs / HP EU27+UK Subs / HP EU38+UK


3.7

4.5

5.0

5.5

7.3

7.7

11.5

15.5

18.1

21.1

26.0

27.5

30.0

34.0

53.0

- 10 20 30 40 50 60

Belarus

Portugal

Sweden

Kazakhstan

Romania

Netherlands

Poland

Ukraine

Spain

Turkey

Italy

United Kingdom

France

Germany

Russia

Millions

Top 15 Countries by FTTH/B Homes Passed in 2021 & 2026

European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Homes passed (in million homes)


2026 ForecastsEU28 : ~202m FTTH H.P.EU39 : ~317m FTTH H.P.

% Evolution 2019 / 2020

+1%+27%+3%+47%+3%+20%

+46%+2%

+22%+41%+5%+15%+8%

+6%+1%

2020 Forecasts 2026 Forecasts % Evolution 2019 / 2026

+9%+730%+79%+548%+218%+120%+17%+38%+134%+133%+17%+57%+20%

+33%+7%3.5

3.6

3.8

3.8

4.4

6.0

6.0

6.0

6.3

11.5

11.6

12.0

16.0

21.5

49.1

- 10 20 30 40 50

Belarus

Portugal

Kazakhstan

Netherlands

Sweden

United Kingdom

Poland

Germany

Romania

Turkey

Ukraine

Italy

Spain

France

Russia

Millions


2.7

3.2

3.3

4.0

4.6

5.6

5.8

7.3

7.5

12.0

15.2

24.0

25.0

28.0

33.0

- 5 10 15 20 25 30 35

Kazakhstan

Belarus

Portugal

Sweden

Netherlands

Ukraine

Romania

Poland

Turkey

Italy

Spain

United Kingdom

Germany

France

Russia

Millions

Top 15 Countries by FTTH/B Subscribers in 2020 & 2026

European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Subscriptions (million)

2020 Forecasts


2026 ForecastsEU28 : ~148m FTTH Subs.EU39 : ~208m FTTH Subs.% Evolution

2019 / 2020

+10%

2026 Forecasts

+15%+39%+10%+23%+12%

+9%+25%

+165%+19%+48%+19%+72%+81%+23%

% Evolution 2019 / 2026

+54%+271%

+1757%+3000%

+55%+981%+148%+673%+47%

+170%+172%+47%+80%+30%

+131%1.4

1.4

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.5

2.6

2.7

3.1

3.7

4.3

10.5

11.3

23.5

- 5 10 15 20 25

Kazakhstan

United Kingdom

Italy

Netherlands

Germany

Portugal

Poland

Ukraine

Belarus

Sweden

Turkey

Romania

France

Spain

Russia

Millions


Top 15 Countries by FTTH/B Household penetration

European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Household penetration FTTH/B Subscriptions / Households (in %)


27.7%

31.6%

33.8%

43.1%

49.3%

55.9%

56.4%

59.0%

67.5%

69.9%

78.8%

79.1%

81.6%

83.2%

91.8%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%

Turkey

Ukraine

Kazakhstan

Italy

Poland

Russia

Netherlands

Germany

Romania

Portugal

Belarus

Sweden

United Kingdom

Spain

France

4.8%

4.9%

7.1%

14.4%

15.4%

17.1%

19.0%

25.3%

35.5%

40.7%

49.3%

50.1%

62.2%

62.3%

68.4%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%

Germany

United Kingdom

Italy

Ukraine

Turkey

Poland

Kazakhstan

Netherlands

France

Russia

Portugal

Romania

Sweden

Spain

Belarus

Penetration forecast in 2026

EU28 : 51.6%EU39 : 57.8%

Penetration forecast in 2020

EU28 : 21.1%EU39 : 23.9%

2020 Forecasts 2026 Forecasts


FTTH / FTTB architecturePositive FTTH evolution : Fibre closer to end-users by 2026

FTTH Architecture & Technology trends

2021 ForecastsFTTH/B at Sept. 2019 2026 Forecasts


60.3%

39.7%

FTTH FTTB

62.5%

37.5%

FTTH FTTB

68.0%

32.0%

FTTH FTTB


FTTH Architecture & Technology trends

2021 ForecastsPON/Ethernet ratio at Sept. 2019

2026 Forecasts


PON / EthernetPON solutions will continue to be predominant in the coming years

50.0%50.0%

PON Ethernet

57.0%

43.0%

PON Ethernet

76.0%

24.0%

PON Ethernet


Key conclusions COVID-19 crisis has impacted on data traffic and new broadband demand. Certainly it is confirmed in 2020

that major players are moving towards full fibre solutions and now they have set goals and actions toexpand FTTH solutions in the coming years. It includes migration from their existing copper-based andcable-based networks (e.g. BT in UK / Orange / Telefonica).

Goals and public funds have been announced from governments in order to deploy FTTH/B socketsthroughout Europe, in special in rural areas.

A new digital gap for teleworking performance is now present.

Alternative operators are arising in areas not covered by major FTTH/B players. This is promotingcompetition and diversifying the digital market with new actors in white areas.

Agreements to deploy or to share FTTH services between private players, utilities companies and localauthorities are evolving towards a convergent portfolio where different services can be provided using thesame infrastructure (telecom services, smart cities solutions and utilities)

5G needs a fibre-based infrastructure. Many mobile operators are taking advantage to also expand itsfibre footprint and to provide full fibre services to end-users.

Cable-based and copper-based ISPs have started to diversify its core technologies towards fibre. Theservice portfolio to their customers now includes a set of different technology that best suit customerdemands.

GROWTH

BUSINESSEVOLUTION

TECHNO-SYMBIOSIS


Realities moving post COVID-19 first wave

* 10% impact to growth based on recent second Wave data

• FTTH Deployments in Europe continue to be resilient, during and post COVID-19• 2020 – Homes Passed growth impacted negatively by 10% across Europe in Q3/Q4 2020*• Subscribers growth increase significantly during this period (+5.6%)

Net adds – EU27+UK

• 2020:1.1M / (+4%) subscriber growth by end 2020.

• 2021: 3.4M FTTH/B estimated subscriptions (+5.8%) and +1.1M FTTH/B Homes Passed (+0.9%).


Net adds – EU38+UK

• 2020: 2.2M / (+2.6%) subscriber growth by end 2020

• 2021: 6.1M FTTH/B estimated subscriptions and (+8.9%) +6.6M FTTH/B Homes Passed (+3.1%).



Appendix


Appendix – FTTH/B Homes Passed/Subscribers YoY (in millions)Belarus (87% Coverage / 71% Take-up / 62% Homes

connected)France (57% Coverage / 45% Take-up / 25% Homes

connected)

7.610.5

13.516.5

19.522.5

25.528.0

16.821.5 23.1 24.7 26.3 27.9 29.5 30.0

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Sept.2019

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Subs Homes passed

Germany (10% Coverage / 33% Take-up / 3% Homes connected)

Italy (30% Coverage / 14% Take-up / 4% Homes connected)

1.1 1.9 3.2 4.8 6.4 8.19.9

12.08.2

12.016.0

20.022.5

24.5 25.5 26.0

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Subs Homes passed

2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.2

3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7

-

1

2

3

4

Sept.2019

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Subs Homes passed

1.3 2.0 3.56.0

10.0

17.022.0

25.0

4.1 6.09.0

14.0

22.026.0

30.034.0

- 5

10 15 20 25 30 35 40

Sept.2019

2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Subs Homes passed

Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPETake-up rate = FTTHB Subs / FTTHB HP


Kazakhstan (48% Coverage / 33% Take-up / 16% Homes Connected)

Netherlands (42% Coverage / 51% Take-up / 22% Homes Connected)

Poland (34% Coverage / 19% Take-up / 6% Homes connected)

Portugal (78% Coverage / 54% Take-up / 42% Homes connected)

1.7 2.0 2.53.1 3.6 4.0 4.3 4.6

3.3 3.84.7

5.7 6.2 6.7 7.2 7.7

- 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Subs Homes passed

0.92.5

3.74.7 5.5 6.2 6.8 7.3

4.96.0

7.08.4 9.2 10.0 10.8 11.5

-

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Subs Homes passed

1.82.2 2.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.1 3.3

3.4 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.5

-

1

2

3

4

5

Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Subs Homes passed

Appendix – FTTH/B Homes Passed/Subscribers YoY (in millions)

1.1 1.4 1.7 1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7

3.5 3.8 4.0 4.4 4.7 5.0 5.2 5.5

-

1

2

3

4

5

6

Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Subs Homes passed


© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 20Enlighten your digital future! Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE

Romania (72% Coverage / 63% Take-up / 45% Homes Connected)

Russia (85% Coverage / 44% Take-up / 37% Homes Connected)

Spain (86% Coverage / 63% Take-up / 54% Homes Connected)

Sweden (87% Coverage / 66% Take-up / 57% Homes Connected)

3.94.3

4.7 5.1 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.86.2 6.3 6.5 6.7 6.9 7.0 7.2 7.3

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Subs Homes passed

21.4 23.5 25.5 27.3 28.9 30.4 31.8 33.0

48.6 49.1 49.7 50.5 51.3 51.9 52.5 53.0

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Subs Homes passed

9.811.3

12.3 13.1 13.7 14.2 14.7 15.215.5 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.1

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Subs Homes passed

2.73.1

3.4 3.5 3.6 3.8 3.9 4.04.24.4 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 5.0

2

3

4

5

Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Subs Homes passed

Take-up rate = FTTHB Subs / FTTHB HP



Turkey (41% Coverage / 31% Take-up / 13% Homes Connected)

Ukraine (62% Coverage / 18% Take-up / 11% Homes Connected)

United Kingdom (15% Coverage / 18% Take-up / 2.8% Homes Connected)

3.0 3.7 4.6 5.3 5.9 6.5 7.0 7.59.6

11.513.7

15.5 17.0 18.5 19.8 21.1

-

5

10

15

20

25

Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Subs Homes passed

2.1 2.6 3.2 3.7 4.3 4.8 5.2 5.6

11.2 11.6 11.9 12.7 13.5 14.2 14.9 15.5

- 2 4 6 8

10 12 14 16 18

Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Subs Homes passed

0.8 1.43.2

6.011.0

17.021.0

24.0

4.2 6.010.0

15.019.0

22.025.0

27.5

-

5

10

15

20

25

30

Sept. 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Subs Homes passed



© IDATE DigiWorld 2020 – p. 22Enlighten your digital future! Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE

EU-27+UK FTTH/B Subscribers

Appendix – FTTH/B Forecast 2020-2026: Comparison before/after COVID 1st Wave

4858

130

4962

148

0%2%4%6%8%10%12%14%16%

020406080

100120140160

2020 2021 2026

Milli

ons

Forecast before COVID Forecast since COVID Net adds (in %)

106122

184

105123

202

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

0

50

100

150

200

250

2020 2021 2026

Milli

ons


EU-27+UK FTTH/B Homes Passed

8397

185

86103

208

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

0

50

100

150

200

250

2020 2021 2026

Milli

ons


EU-38+UK FTTH/B Subscribers

194214

296

195220

317

0%1%2%3%4%5%6%7%8%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2020 2021 2026

Milli

ons


EU-38+UK FTTH/B Homes Passed

FTTH Europe Panorama Council Europe... · 2020. 12. 2. · COVID19: FTTH Forecast for EUROPE...

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