FTTH Europe Panorama Council Europe - Panorama at... · in regions now just beginning large FTTH...

FTTH Council Europe - Panorama

Europe Broadband status

FTTH Council Europe Conference – March 12-14th, 2019 - Amsterdam

Roland Montagne

Principal Analyst

+33 (0)4 67 14 44 26

[email protected]

www.idate.org

Market at September 2018

© IDATE DigiWorld 2019 – p. 2Enlighten your digital future!

Agenda

1. Study Background

2. General overview and main trends

3. Leading countries

4. European Ranking

5. Conclusion – Key outputs

6. Appendix


Study Background01


Methodology

ACTIONS

Results

▪ Mission on behalf of the FTTH Council Europe – 17th edition

▪ Provide a complete summary of the status of FTTH/B in Europe at Sept. 2018

Bottom-up

methodologyScope

• Analysis of 39 countries

• Data per player for FTTH/B and

other fibre-based architectures

• Key parameters study: technical,

financial, business model,

figures

• Desk research

• Direct contacts with leading

players and IDATE partners

within countries

• Information exchange with FTTH

Council Europe members

• Both quantitative and qualitative

data

• Market status in the country

• Strategic approach of involved

players


Indicators affecting the FTTH adoptionPositive criteria

Demand for data and bandwidth continues to grow steadily, pushing operators

towards FTTH technologies1Public authorities, via subsidies and an investment-friendly regulatory framework, will

participate actively in fibre enhancement throughout Europe 2Many incumbents shifting business models to focus on FTTH rather than copper-

based technologies3

Mutualized networks as well as sharing agreements tend to push FTTH development4

Technology innovation to help lowering costs5

Eastern Europe actively involved in FTTH deployments, leaving DSL behind6Fibre densification driven by 5G deployment & cost savings from fibre-5G

convergence7


Indicators affecting the FTTH adoptionNegative impacts

Still no clear mass-market applications for FTTH1New variants or mixed-build architectures, along with G.Fast or DOCSIS 3.1, could

delay FTTH investments by operators2Potential risk of mobile 5G broadband technology delaying FTTH in economically

non-viable areas3

Public funding initiatives may not be assertive to effectively encourage FTTH growth 4Substitution by fixed-wireless access or ‘hybrid’ access in remote or difficult to service

areas5


General overview and

main trends02


As at September 2018 in EU39*:

▪ 59.6 million FTTH/B subscribers

▪ Almost 160 million FTTH/B Homes Passed

FTTH/B figures as at September 2018

11 16 20

3136

4552

60

42

64

77

108

126

140 149

160

September2010

September2012

September2013

September2014

September2015

September2016

September2017

September2018

Subscribers Homes Passed

FTTH/B market evolution in terms of Homes passed and Subscribers

(EU39)

>x4

>x6Subscriber evolution

Homes Passed evolution

FTTH Council Europe scope at September 201839

countries

covered

Coverage rateEU28 : 36.4%

EU39 : 46.4%

Take-up rateEU28 : 38.2%

EU39 : 37.4%

EU28 countries

Covered

countries in

FTTH Panorama

(1) EU39 = EU28 (excl. Cyprus) + 4 CIS countries + Andorra, Iceland, Israel, Macedonia,

Norway, Serbia, Switzerland, Turkey(2) Cyprus was replaced by Macedonia at end-2012 because the FTTH/B market is much more

developed in this country.

Source: IDATE for FTTH Council EUROPE


Historical data and growing trends (EU28 / EU39)

Evolution of FTTH/B Subscribers (million)Comparison EU28 / EU39

▪ EU28 has a stronger position in the whole European region

▪ By Sept. 2018, half of FTTH/B deployments are performed inside of the EU28 countries, an increasing trend along

the previous years


Evolution of FTTH/B Homes Passed (million)Comparison EU28 / EU39

45

6 8

1215

2024

30

711

1620

31

36

45

52

60

December2010

December2011

December2012

December2013

December2014

September2015

September2016

September2017

September2018

Total EU28 Total EU39

1523

3036

5157

6773

81

29

42

64

77

108

126

140149

160

December2010

December2011

December2012

December2013

December2014

September2015

September2016

September2017

September2018

Total EU28 Total EU39


Incumbents are taking a growing role in FTTH/B Initiatives

▪ Analysis of around 400 FTTH/B projects in EU39 at September 2018

▪ Around 55% of total Homes in the region have been passed by Alternative ISPs, and approx. 41% by incumbents (as compared to 21%

by incumbents in 2011)

▪ Municipalities/Local Authorities, along with utilities when appropriate, will remain those ones that will help ensure an exhaustive coverage

at term

41%

55%

4%

Breakdown of FTTH/B Sockets deployed by type of player (%)Data comparison between Dec. 2011 and Sept. 2018

21%

71%

8%

September 2018December 2011

Top European countries – Breakdown in terms of Sockets deployed

Russia1

Spain2

France3

Ukraine4

Total Sockets deployed: 71,435,000✓ Incumbents: 33,200,000

✓ Alternative ISPs: 38,235,000



✓ Municip./Utilities: 59,160



✓ Municip./Utilities: 1,730,000

Total Sockets deployed: 10,765,000✓ Alternative ISPs: 10,765,000


5Romania




Leading countries03


General Ranking: FTTH/B Homes passed

European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Homes passed over time (in million homes)Data comparison between Sept. 2015 and Sept. 2018

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Mill

ions

Sept. 2015 Sept. 2016 Sept. 2017 Sept. 2018


Top 5 annual growth rates – Homes

passed (in %)Data from Sept. 2017 to Sept. 2018

+ 43.1 %

+ 40.5 %

+ 22.8 %

+ 17.4 %

+ 15.1 %

Italy

Poland

UK

Portugal

Germany

17 countries

with more than

2m. HP

EU28 : 11

countries in the

Ranking


General Ranking: FTTH/B Sockets deployed*

European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Sockets deployed (in million homes)Data comparison between Sept. 2015 and Sept. 2018

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Mill

ion

s


18 countries with

more than 2m.

Optical sockets

*Total amount of FTTH/B optical sockets deployed by each player in a

country (may be higher than Homes Passed when homes are covered by

several players). Might lead to overlap situations

Top 5 annual growth rates – Sockets

deployed (%)

Data from Sept. 2017 to Sept. 2018

+ 77 %

+ 40.5 %

+ 36.9 %

+ 26.2 %

+ 22.8 %

Italy

Poland

France

Spain

UK

EU28 : 12

countries in the

Ranking



General Ranking: FTTH/B Coverage

FTTH/B coverage > 90%

FTTH/B coverage 70 – 90 %

FTTH/B coverage 50 – 70 %

FTTH/B coverage < 50 %

FTTH/B coverage* as at

September 2018(* Homes passed / Households)

Coverage

rateEU28 : 36.4%

EU39 : 46.4%

Andorra

99.9%

99.2%

Portugal

Spain

97.8%

Sweden

Bulgaria

Lithuania

Latvia

95.4%

96.4%

91%

91%



0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000


General Ranking: FTTH/B Subscribers


+ 83.2 %

UK

+ 72.5 %

Italy

+ 36 %Poland

+ 35.1 %

France

+ 30.7 %

Spain

European ranking in terms of FTTH/B Subscriptions (million)Data comparison between Sept. 2015 and Sept. 2018


General Ranking: FTTH/B Take-up

FTTH/B take-up > 50%

FTTH/B take-up 30 – 40 %

FTTH/B take-up < 30 %


FTTH/B take-up 40 – 50 %

Take-up

rateEU28 : 38.2%

EU39 : 37.4%

Belarus

64.5%

FTTH/B take-up* as at

September 2018(*Subscriptions / Homes Passed)

Andorra

61.4%

Romania

52.2%

Latvia

51.5%

51.2%Belgium

Netherlands

52.6%


European Ranking04


▪ Includes countries of +200k Households in which FTTH/B

subscribers represent at least 1% of total households

▪ Eastern Europe and Nordic countries are among the top of

penetration ranks, mainly due to a proactive state intervention

towards fibre expansion

▪ Some major European countries are lagging behind (except.

Spain and Portugal) due to a predominance of copper-based

technologies (VDSL, G.Fast) and/or cable networks (DOCSIS

3.0 / 3.1)

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%

United Kingdom

Austria

Croatia

Serbia

Germany

Ireland

Italy

Poland

Switzerland

Ukraine

Turkey

Macedonia

EU28

Czech Republic

Kazakhstan

Hungary

Denmark

Luxembourg

France

Netherlands

Slovenia

Slovakia

Finland

Estonia

Bulgaria

Russia

Norway

Portugal

Romania

Belarus

Sweden

Spain

Lithuania

Latvia

FTTH subscribers

FTTB subscribers

European Ranking as at September 2018


UK is entering the

Ranking by Sept.

2018

Penetration rates of European countries at September 2018(FTTH/B Subscriptions / Households)

Penetration rate

EU28 : 13.9%


Key Conclusions05


Key conclusions

Public

involvement

• Public-private initiatives are the key trend of 2018: more and more involvements from

public authorities (via subsidies and an adequate policy framework) to promote fibre

expansion throughout their country

• Progressive move towards fibre expansion in hard-to-reach areas: urban dense areas

are well covered by fibre networks in Europe, the focus for public & private actors is now on

remote areas. How to promote high-speed broadband access in these isolated areas?

• Pent Up Demand becoming clear: Seeing large pent up demand (high connection rates)

in regions now just beginning large FTTH rollouts (UK / Italy)

• EU28 is Mobilizing for FTTH/B: EU28 now catching up and surpassing the growth trends

seen across the larger EU39

• EU39 region has reached almost 160 million homes with FTTH/B networks, representing

a coverage of 46.4% of the total Homes

• Countries like Italy, Poland and UK have experienced strong growth, increasing their

homes passed by more than 20%, as well as their subscribers by more than 36%

Regional

Recap

Italy Poland UK

+ 43.1 % + 40.5 % + 22.8 %+ 83.2 %+ 72.5 % + 36 %

Subscribers Homes Passed Subscribers Homes Passed Subscribers Homes Passed


Global Ranking at September 2018 – Mature markets


FTTH/B Penetration rates worldwide at September 2018(FTTH/B Subscriptions / Households)

GCC and APAC countries

leading the ranking

▪ Includes countries of +200k Households in which

FTTH/B subscribers represent at least 1% of total

households

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%

Bulgaria

Russia

Norway

Portugal

Romania

Belarus

Vietnam

Sweden

Spain

Lithuania

Taiwan

Latvia

Uruguay

New Zealand

Mauritius

Japan

Hong Kong

South Korea

China

Singapore

Qatar

UAE

FTTH subscribers

FTTB subscribers


0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0% 90.0% 100.0%

Jordan

United Kingdom

Austria

Croatia

Serbia

Angola

Germany

Colombia

Argentina

Ireland

Italy

Brazil

Puerto Rico

South Africa

Poland

Kuwait

Switzerland

Chile

Oman

Ukraine

Turkey

Macedonia

Canada

United States

Ecuador

Saudi Arabia

Mexico

Czech Republic

Kazakhstan

Australia

Hungary

Jamaica

Denmark

Trinidad and Tobago

Luxembourg

France

Netherlands

Malaysia

Slovenia

Slovakia

Finland

Estonia

FTTH subscribers

FTTB subscribers

Global Ranking at September 2018 – Less than 30 % penetration


Some major European countries

still lagging behind

FTTH/B Penetration rates worldwide at September 2018

(FTTH/B Subscriptions / Households)

▪ Includes countries of +200k Households in which

FTTH/B subscribers represent at least 1% of total

households


Appendix06

© IDATE DigiWorld 2019 – p. 24Enlighten your digital future! Source: IDATE for FTTH Council

EUROPE

Andorra (99.9% Coverage / 61% Take-up /

61% Homes connected)Austria (8% Coverage / 18% Take-up / 1.5%

Homes connected)

Belarus (62% Coverage / 64% Take-up / 40%

Homes connected)

Belgium (0.5% Coverage / 51% Take-up /

0.3% Homes connected)

0.03 0.03 0.03 0.03

0.050.06 0.06 0.06

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

September 2015 September 2016 September 2017 September 2018

Subs HP

0.04 0.04 0.05 0.06

0.270.29

0.30 0.32

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35


Subs HP

0.50

0.90

1.431.56

1.15

1.78

2.102.42

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3


Subs HP

0.010.01

0.010.01

0.020.02

0.020.03

0

0.005

0.01

0.015

0.02

0.025

0.03


Subs HP

Take-up rate = FTTHB Subs /

FTTHB HP

Appendix – FTTH/B Homes Passed/Subscribers YoY (in millions)


EUROPE

Bulgaria (95% Coverage / 34% Take-up /

32% Homes connected)Croatia (26% Coverage / 7% Take-up / 2%

Homes connected)

Czech Republic (38% Coverage / 38% Take-

up / 15% Homes connected)

Denmark (70% Coverage / 27% Take-up /

19% Homes connected)

0.650.81 0.86 0.98

2.00

2.502.75 2.90

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5


Subs HP

0.02 0.03 0.04 0.04

0.23

0.38

0.47

0.56

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6


Subs HP

0.43 0.48 0.49 0.51

1.471.58

1.781.89

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0


Subs HP

0.55 0.61 0.66 0.69

1.641.74 1.78 1.81

0.2

0.6

1.0

1.4

1.8

2.2


Subs HP


FTTHB HP



EUROPE

Estonia (55% Coverage / 49% Take-up / 27%

Homes connected)

Finland (62% Coverage / 41% Take-up / 26%

Homes connected)

France (45% Coverage / 43% Take-up / 19%

Homes connected)

Germany (7% Coverage / 31% Take-up / 2%

Homes connected)

0.08

0.140.15 0.16

0.270.29

0.32 0.33

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35


Subs HP

0.37

0.62 0.66 0.69

0.720.93

1.511.68

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6

2


Subs HP

2.393.15

4.225.70

8.60

10.9311.74

13.33

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14


Subs HP

0.50 0.650.82 0.95

2.112.36

2.673.07

0

1

2

3

4


Subs HP


FTTHB HP



EUROPE

Hungary (45% Coverage / 35% Take-up /


Iceland (78% Coverage / 44% Take-up / 35%

Homes connected)

Ireland (23% Coverage / 17% Take-up / 4%

Homes connected)

0.420.55 0.58 0.65

1.04

1.701.81 1.86

0

0.5

1

1.5

2


Subs HP

0.030.04 0.04 0.05

0.08

0.090.10

0.10

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12


Subs HP

0.020.02

0.030.07

0.040.09

0.31

0.41

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5


Subs HP


FTTHB HP



EUROPE

Israel (68% Coverage / 0.2% Take-up / 0.1%

Homes connected)

Italy (24% Coverage / 17% Take-up / 4%

Homes connected)

Kazakhstan (44% Coverage / 34% Take-up /


Latvia (96% Coverage / 52% Take-up / 50%

Homes connected)

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

1.20

1.461.61

1.71

0

0.5

1

1.5

2


Subs HP

0.37 0.52 0.621.07

2.79

3.884.40

6.30

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7


Subs HP

0.91 0.97 1.03 1.09

2.80 2.95 3.10 3.20

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5


Subs HP

0.310.38

0.430.47

0.82 0.86 0.90 0.90

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1


Subs HP


FTTHB HP



EUROPE

Lithuania (95% Coverage / 49% Take-up /


Luxembourg (70% Coverage / 27% Take-up /


Macedonia (26% Coverage / 45% Take-up /


Malta (32% Coverage / 18% Take-up / 6%

Homes connected)

0.50 0.54 0.57 0.60

1.18 1.20 1.23 1.23

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4


Subs HP

0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06

0.140.17

0.190.21

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25


Subs HP

0.040.05

0.06 0.07

0.15 0.15 0.15 0.15

0

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.1

0.12

0.14

0.16

0.18


Subs HP

0.000.01 0.01 0.01

0.03

0.050.06

0.07

0

0.01

0.02

0.03

0.04

0.05

0.06

0.07


Subs HP


FTTHB HP



EUROPE

Netherlands (39% Coverage / 51% Take-up /


Norway (88% Coverage / 41% Take-up / 37%

Homes connected)

Poland (28% Coverage / 18% Take-up / 5%

Homes connected)

Portugal (99% Coverage / 37% Take-up /


1.12 1.24 1.351.58

2.79 2.88 2.92 3.06

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5


Subs HP

0.65 0.72 0.78 0.88

1.37

1.852.04 2.12

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5


Subs HP

0.150.35 0.54

0.731.01

1.96

2.86

4.01

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5


Subs HP

0.751.08 1.21

1.56

3.15 3.323.55

4.17

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5


Subs HP


FTTHB HP



EUROPE

Romania (73% coverage / 53% take-up / 38%

Homes connected)

Russia (84% coverage / 42% take-up / 35%

Homes connected)

Serbia (6% coverage / 30% take-up / 2%

Homes connected)

Slovakia (72% coverage / 34% take-up / 24%

Homes connected)

2.352.74 3.02 3.29

5.005.60 5.87

6.25

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7


Subs HP

15.03 17.10 18.93 20.19

45.40 46.50 47.39 47.86

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Subs HP

0.01

0.04 0.04 0.050.06

0.120.14

0.16

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2


Subs HP

0.33 0.40 0.42 0.46

1.15 1.211.34 1.37

0

0.4

0.8

1.2

1.6


Subs HP


FTTHB HP



EUROPE

Slovenia (52% Coverage / 44% Take-up /


Spain (98% Coverage / 45% Take-up / 44%

Homes connected)

Sweden (91% Coverage / 48% Take-up / 44%

Homes connected)

Switzerland (45% Coverage / 17% Take-up /

8% Homes connected)

0.14 0.150.18

0.21

0.38 0.380.43

0.47

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5


Subs HP

2.594.45

6.067.92

16.20 16.90 17.55 17.61

0

5

10

15

20


Subs HP

1.601.84 2.03 2.09

3.66 3.684.18 4.37

0

1

2

3

4

5


Subs HP

0.19 0.27 0.29 0.31

1.271.45

1.581.75

0

0.5

1

1.5

2


Subs HP


FTTHB HP



EUROPE

Turkey (36% Coverage / 31% Take-up / 11%

Homes connected)

Ukraine (59% coverage / 17% take-up / 10%

Homes connected)

United Kingdom (10% coverage / 13% take-up /

1.3% Homes connected)

1.63 1.822.24 2.59

5.606.30

7.26

8.30

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9


Subs HP

1.55 1.81 1.86 1.87

9.4510.30 10.63 10.77

0

2

4

6

8

10

12


Subs HP

0.07 0.12 0.200.37

0.58

1.75

2.29

2.82

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3


Subs HP


FTTHB HP


FTTH Europe Panorama Council Europe - Panorama at... · in regions now just beginning large FTTH...

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