Foreign and Security PolicyForeign and Security Policy

East and Central Europe in Transition

Personnel and spellingPersonnel and spelling

• Brezhnev

• Chernenko

• Andropov

• Gorbachov

• Yeltsin

• Putin

Warsaw PactWarsaw Pact

• Response to NATO

• Goals primarily Moscow’s

• Keep Germany divided

• Push back starting point of land invasion

• Expand Communism [Stalin, but not necessarily Khrushchev]

• Brezhnev Doctrine

Comecon/CMEAComecon/CMEA

• Economic interdependence

• counter to Common Market

• planning

• specialisation

After “Independence”After “Independence”

• Let’s all join NATO

• Let’s all join European Union

• Who’s really European?

• Yanks go home?

• Prevent revival of Communism and/or Moscow dominance

• Any old scores need settling?

ConflictsConflicts

• Polish posession of Silesia and half East Prussia

• Prussia: Konigsberg/Kaliningrad

• Transylvania

• Ruthenia

DiasporasDiasporas

• Bulgarian Turks

• Dispossessed Germans from 1945-8

• Russians in Ukraine, Latvia, Estonia

• Crimean Tartars

• Dispossessed and Murdered East European Jewish families from fascist period

• Emigrants to U.S., exiled dissidents and defectors

Moscow’s nearby concernsMoscow’s nearby concerns

• Far East: Kuriles and Amur/Ussuri river frontiers

• Central Asia: Islamic fundamentalism and Tajikistan

• Caucasus:Chechnya,Abkhazia,Nagorno-Karabakh, South Ossetia

• Europe: CIS or “near abroad”; Baltic States; former Communist states; Western Europe

Moscow’s global concernsMoscow’s global concerns

• UN role: wants to be taken seriously

• Relations with US: partnership turning to rivalry: Serbia, Iraq, other conflicts of interest?

• Needs to sell something on world market. What is its economic role to be?

• What relations are possible with Japan, Germany, France and China?

Document 10.07.2000 approved Document 10.07.2000 approved Putin June 28thPutin June 28th

• International relations have been transformed• Cold war over, Russia reformed• Opportunities for cooperation broadened• Threat of global nuclear conflict reduced to

minimum• Military power of importance, but econ., political,

sci and tech, ecological and info factors increasing in importance

New challenges and threats to New challenges and threats to Russian national interestRussian national interest

• Unipolar world: US dominates both economically and politically

• Role of UN Security Council being weakened• Questions of international security being decided

by primarily western institutions and “forums of limited composition”

• Strategy of unilateral actions is destabilising• Bypassing legal mechanisms will not remove

underlying causes of conflict but can undermine foundations of law and order

Russia’s first aimRussia’s first aim

• “ to achieve a multi-polar system of international relations that really reflects the diversity of the modern world with its great variety of interests

Russia’s concernsRussia’s concerns

• Rivalry among regional powers• Growth of separatism, ethnic-national and

religious extremism• Integration in the Euro-Atlantic region

being pursued selectively• Belittling role of sovereign state is used to

legitimise arbitrary interference in internal affairs

More concerensMore concerens

• Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their delivery

• Growth of international terrorism

• Trafficking in drugs and weapons

• Regional and local armed conflicts [Chechnya, Abkhazia, Kosovo Nagorno-karabakh etc.]

Russia’s resources are limited Russia’s resources are limited

• So it finds it difficult to uphold its economic interests

• But the potential for “ensuring itself a worthy place in the world” remains if:

• Statehood can be strengthened

• Civil society consolidates

• Stable economic growth can be achieved

PrioritiesPriorities

• Decrease in the role of the power factor

• Enhancement of strategic and regional stability

MeansMeans

• Comply with arms reduction treaties and negotiate new ones

• Further bilateral reduction of nuclear potential with US

• Control of missile technologies and proliferation• Strategic stability of information security• Reduction and limitation of conventional forces• Strengthening of legal foundation of international

peacekeeping in accordance with UN Charter