FINAL REPORT SUPPORTING REPORT - JICAopen_jicareport.jica.go.jp/pdf/11789187_01.pdf · FINAL REPORT...

No.

JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY (JICA)

METROPOLITAN DISTRICT OF CARACASBOLIVARIAN REPUBLIC OF VENEZUELA

STUDY ON

FINAL REPORTSUPPORTING REPORT

In association with

PACIFIC CONSULTANTS INTERNATIONAL

OYO INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION

DISASTER PREVENTION BASIC PLANIN THE METROPOLITAN DISTRICT OF CARACASIN THE BOLIVARIAN REPUBLIC OF VENEZUELA

March 2005

G E

J R

05-027

JAPAN INTERNATIONAL COOPERATION AGENCY (JICA) METROPOLITAN DISTRICT OF CARACAS

BOLIVARIAN REPUBLIC OF VENEZUELA STUDY ON DISASTER PREVENTION BASIC PLAN IN THE METROPOLITAN DISTRICT OF CARACAS IN THE BOLIVARIAN REPUBLIC OF VENEZUELA

FINAL REPORT SUPPORTING REPORT

March 2005

PACIFIC CONSULTANTS INTERNATIONAL

In association with

OYO INTERNATIONAL CORPORATION

Estimated Base Cost: as of 2005 price Foreign Currency Exchange Rate:

Currency Exchange Rate / US$

Venezuelan Bolivar (Bs) 1,919.10

Japanese Yen (¥) 104.35

(1 January, 2005)

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STUDY ON DISASTER PREVENTION BASIC PLAN

IN THE METROPOLITAN DISTRICT OF CARACAS

FINAL REPORT

SUPPORTING REPORT

LIST

S1 CARACAS DISASTER MANAGEMENT DRAFT PLAN

S2 SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT

S3 EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PREVENTION

S4 GEOTECHNICAL ENGINEERING FOR EARTHQUAKE ANALYSIS

S5 BUILDING DATABASE

S6 SEISMIC DESIGN OF BUILDING

S7 FIELD TEST ON SEISMIC REINFORCEMENT OF BUILDINGS

S8 LIFELINE/INFRASTRUCTURE DATABASE

S9 LIFELINE/INFRASTRUCTURE DAMAGE PREVENTION

S10 TOPOGRAPY AND GEOLOGY

S11 LAND SLIDE AND STEEP SLOPE FAILURE

S12 DEBRIS FLOW AND SEDIMENT STUDY

S13 HYDROLOGY AND FLOOD ANALYSIS

S14 HISTORICAL SEDIMENT DISASTER

S15 INSTALLATION OF HYDRO-METEOROLOGICAL EQUIPMENTS

S16 FACILITY DESIGN AND COST ESTIMATE

S17 COUNTERMEASURE FORSTEEP SLOPE FAILURE AND LAND SLIDE

S18 EARLY WARNING AND EVACUATION

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S19 GIS SYSTEM DESIGN/DATA BASE

S20 GIS OPERATION MANUAL

S21 DISASTER PREVENTION ADMINISTRATION/LEGISLATION

S22 EDUCATION FOR DISASTER PREVENTION

S23 PEOPLE’S ORGANIZATION FOR DISASTER PREVENTION

S24 SOCIAL SURVEY

S25 RESCUE OPERATIONS / MEDICAL SERVICE

S26 ENVIRONMENTAL CONSIDERATION

S27 PROJECT EVALUATION

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List of Abbreviations

ADMC Government of the Metropolitan District of Caracas AASHTO American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials ASTER Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer AUAEV Unique Authority for Vargas State Reconstruction AVU Analyzed Vulnerability Unit C/P Counterpart CAD Computer Aided Design CADAFE Electric Administration and Development Anonymous Company CAEL Action Committees for Local Emergencies CAF Andean Development Foundation CAG Canadian Association of Geographers CANTV National Anonymous Telephone Company of Venezuela

CAPCOMEA Project for Training of Communities for Self-protection, Prevention, Mitigation and Attention of Adverse Events

CCSIEM Committee for Contingencies and Emergency Situations of Miranda State CENAMB, UCV Center for Integral Environmental Studies, Central University of Venezuela CESAP Center for the Service of Popular Action CIDIAT Interamerican Center for Environmental and Territorial Development and Research CLPP Local Councils of public planning CNU National Council of Universities COMIR, UCV Committee for Risk Mitigation, UCV CONAVI National Housing Commission COVENIN Venezuelan Committee of Industrial Standards DBMS Data Base Management System DIGITEL Digitel Corporation C.A. DMC Metropolitan District of Caracas DTM Digital Terrain Model EDELCA Electrification of Caroni C.A. EMS European Microseismic Scale F/S Feasibility Study FAV Venezuelan Air Force FEDE Foundation for Educational Buildings and Equipment FGDC Federal Geographic Data Committee (USA) FONACIT National Fund of Science, Technology and Innovation FONDUR National Fund for Urban Development FUNDABARRIOS Foundation for Neighborhood Equipment FUNDACOMUN Foundation for Community Development and Local Promotion FUNREVI Regional Foundation for Housing FUNVI Housing Foundation, DMC FUNVIS Social Investment Fund of Venezuela FUNVISIS Venezuelan Foundation for Seismological Investigations GIS Geographic Information System

ii

H/V Horizontal/Vertical HIDROCAPITAL Aqueduct Institute for Capital District and Miranda and Vargas States IAEM Institute of Emergency Attention of Miranda State IDEC-UCV Institution for the Experimental Development of Construction, UCV IERU, USB Institute of Regional and Urban Studies, USB IGVSB Simon Bolivar Geographic Institute of Venezuela IMAS Water Service Institute of Sucre Municipality IMF, UCV Institute of Fluid Mechanics, Central University of Venezuela IMME, UCV Institute of Materials and Structural Models, Central University of Venezuela INCE National Institute of Educational Cooperation INE National Statistics Institute INGEOMIN National Geological and Mining Institute INOS Former name of HIDROCAPITAL (but in a national extent) INPARQUES National Institute of Parks INTEVEP Venezuelan Technological Institute of Petroleum

IPASME Ministry of Defense, Prevention and Social Assistance Institute for the Education Ministry personnel

IPC Civil Protection Institute, Municipality of Sucre

IPCA Municipal Autonomous Institute of Civil Protection and Environment, Chacao Municipality

ISC International Seismological Centre ITCZ Intertropical Convergence Zone IUTB University Institute of Firefighting Technology IVSS Venezuelan Institute of Social Security JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency M/P Master Plan MARN Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources MARNR Former Name of MARN MCT Ministry of Science and Technology MEM Ministry of Energy and Mines MES Ministry of Higher Education MINDUR Ministry of Urban Development MINFRA Ministry of Infrastructure MMI Mercalli Macroseismic (Modified) Intensity MOP Former Name of MINFRA MPD Ministry of Planning and Development MSDS Ministry of Health and Social Development MYCT Ministry of Science and Technology Nd Damage Extension Ndp Number of Collapsed Poles NGO Non Government Organization NIP Neighborhood Improvement Plan OCEI Former name of INE OPR First Response Organization OPSU Planning Office of University Sector

iii

PAHO Pan-American Health Organization PCAD Civil Protection Administration of Disasters PDUL Local Urban Development Plan PDVSA Petroleum of Venezuela S.A. PGA Peak Ground Acceleration PGV Peak Ground Velocity PLACADE Planning in Case of Disasters (Metropolitan Firefighters) PRECOM Office of Community Preparation, Metropolitan Firefighters PREVENE Assistance to Natural Disaster Prevention in Venezuela RC Reinforced Concrete REGVEN Venezuelan Geodesic Network SCADA Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition SCS Soil Conservation Service (U.S.A.) SIRGAS Geocentral Reference System for the Americas SOCSAL Local Support Service A.C. SPT Standard Penetration Test SUMA Humanitarian Supply Management System S/W Scope of Work TELCEL Telcel BellSouth of Venezuela TSU University Technician UCV Central University of Venezuela UDU Urban Design Unit ULA University of Los Andes UNDP United Nations Development Programme UPEL Libertador Experimental Pedagogic University UPF Physical Planning Unit USB Simon Bolivar University USGS United States Geological Survey Vs S Wave Velocity WHO World Health Organization

S1

CARACAS DISASTER MANAGEMENT DRAFT PLAN

“Preventive behavior for a safer Caracas”

Ana Teresa Aguilar

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FINAL REPORT

SUPPORTING REPORT

S1

CARACAS DISASTER MANAGEMENT DRAFT PLAN

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Preface----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------S1-1

Summary of the Draft Plan ----------------------------------------------------------------------S1-2

CHAPTER 1 GENERAL

1.1 Grand Vision of the Plan ----------------------------------------------------------------S1-3

1.2 Purpose of the Plan ----------------------------------------------------------------------S1-3

1.3 Target Area -------------------------------------------------------------------------------S1-3

1.4 Target of Protection----------------------------------------------------------------------S1-3

1.5 Target Year -------------------------------------------------------------------------------S1-3

1.6 Target Disaster Types -------------------------------------------------------------------S1-3

1.7 Structure of the Plan and Main Objectives of the Plan------------------------------S1-4

1.8 Main Objectives and Major Projects of the Plan-------------------------------------S1-4

1.9 Organization Framework ---------------------------------------------------------------S1-5

1.10 Natural Features of the Area -----------------------------------------------------------S1-5

1.11 Earthquake Disaster Scenario ----------------------------------------------------------S1-5

1.12 Sediment Disaster Scenario ------------------------------------------------------------S1-5

1.13 Social Vulnerability of the Area -------------------------------------------------------S1-5

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CHAPTER 2 MITIGATION PLAN

2.1 Policy --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------S1-6

2.2 Mitigation Measures ---------------------------------------------------------------------S1-6 2.2.1 General--------------------------------------------------------------------------S1-6 2.2.2 Urban Planning for Less Vulnerable Caracas------------------------------S1-7 2.2.3 Seismic Reinforcement of Buildings (one of the major projects) -------S1-8 2.2.4 Mitigation Measures against Sediment Disasters -------------------------S1-13 2.2.5 Mitigation Measures for Dams ----------------------------------------------S1-14 2.2.6 Mitigation Measures for Transportation------------------------------------S1-15 2.2.7 Mitigation Measures for Lifelines-------------------------------------------S1-16 2.2.8 Mitigation Measures for Hazardous Materials-----------------------------S1-18

2.3 Promotion of Research for Mitigation Measures ------------------------------------S1-18 2.3.1 Research on Earthquake Disaster Prevention ------------------------------S1-18 2.3.2 Research on Sediment Disaster Prevention --------------------------------S1-19

CHAPTER 3 PREPARATION PLAN FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE

3.1 Policy --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------S1-23

3.2 Preparation Plan --------------------------------------------------------------------------S1-23 3.2.1 Organization--------------------------------------------------------------------S1-23 3.2.2 Training and Drills ------------------------------------------------------------S1-27 3.2.3 Establishment of Regional Network for Emergency Response----------S1-28 3.2.4 Establishment of Emergency Response Facilities-------------------------S1-29 3.2.5 Preparation of Equipments ---------------------------------------------------S1-31 3.2.6 Establishment of Medical Service System ---------------------------------S1-32 3.2.7 Establishment of Emergency Transportation System---------------------S1-33 3.2.8 Stockpiling of Goods----------------------------------------------------------S1-34 3.2.9 Ｑuick Screening of Damaged Buildings -----------------------------------S1-34 3.2.10 Early Warning and Evacuation System for Debris Flow Disaster Prevention------------------------------------------------------------S1-35

3.3 Promotion of Research for Preparation Measures -----------------------------------S1-36 3.3.1 Seismic Observation Network -----------------------------------------------S1-36 3.3.2 Meteorological/Hydrological Observation Network----------------------S1-36 3.3.3 Research on Seismic Phenomenon ------------------------------------------S1-37 3.3.4 Research on Sediment Disaster Prevention --------------------------------S1-37

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CHAPTER 4 STAND-BY PLAN FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE

4.1 Policy --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------S1-37

4.2 Organization ------------------------------------------------------------------------------S1-37

4.3 Stand-by Plan for Sediment Disaster --------------------------------------------------S1-38 4.3.1 Organization in Charge of Uninterrupted Observation -------------------S1-38 4.3.2 Organization in Charge of Analysis the Observation Information ------S1-38 4.3.3 Operation Control Center (OCC)--------------------------------------------S1-38 4.3.4 Shift to the Emergency Response Stage ------------------------------------S1-38

CHAPTER 5 EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLAN

5.1 Policy --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------S1-39

5.2 Organization for Emergency Response without Warning --------------------------S1-39 5.2.1 Organizations Defined in the Law-------------------------------------------S1-39 5.2.2 Responsibility of the Operation Control Center ---------------------------S1-39 5.2.3 Mobilization of the Operation Control Center-----------------------------S1-39

5.3 Organization for Emergency Response with Early Warning -----------------------S1-39 5.3.1 Organization--------------------------------------------------------------------S1-39 5.3.2 Mobilization of OCC----------------------------------------------------------S1-39 5.3.3 Early Warning and Evacuation Operation----------------------------------S1-40

5.4 Collection and Transformation of Information on Damage ------------------------S1-41 5.4.1 Collection of Information on Natural Phenomena------------------------S1-41 5.4.2 Quick Estimation of Damage Distribution Using the Simulation Result ---------------------------------------------------------S1-42 5.4.3 Collection of Information on Human Casualties --------------------------S1-42 5.4.4 Collection of Information on Building Damage --------------------------S1-42 5.4.5 Collection of Information on Transportation Damage--------------------S1-42 5.4.6 Collection of Information on Lifeline Damage ----------------------------S1-42 5.4.7 Quick Screening of Damaged Buildings -----------------------------------S1-42 5.4.8 Quick Screening of Damaged Bridges--------------------------------------S1-43

5.5 Collaboration with Related Agencies--------------------------------------------------S1-44 5.5.1 Request of Help from National Government Agencies-------------------S1-44

5.6 Early Warning, Evacuation and Rescue Operation ----------------------------------S1-45

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5.6.1 Early Warning------------------------------------------------------------------S1-45 5.6.2 Evacuation----------------------------------------------------------------------S1-46 5.6.3 Rescue Operation and Medical Services -----------------------------------S1-47

5.7 Transportation ----------------------------------------------------------------------------S1-50 5.7.1 Transportation Security -------------------------------------------------------S1-50 5.7.2 Emergency Transportation ---------------------------------------------------S1-50

5.8 Accommodation --------------------------------------------------------------------------S1-51 5.8.1 Items in Inclued in the Plan --------------------------------------------------S1-51 5.8.2 Organization--------------------------------------------------------------------S1-52 5.8.3 Beneficiaries -------------------------------------------------------------------S1-52 5.8.4 Number of Temporary Houses-----------------------------------------------S1-52 5.8.5 Methodology -------------------------------------------------------------------S1-52 5.8.6 Provision of Vacant Public Apartment -------------------------------------S1-53 5.8.7 Reparing of Damaged Houses -----------------------------------------------S1-53 5.8.8 Removal of Debris ------------------------------------------------------------S1-53 5.8.9 Consultancy Service for House Recovery----------------------------------S1-54

5.9 Provision of Necessary Goods----------------------------------------------------------S1-54 5.9.1 Food -----------------------------------------------------------------------------S1-54 5.9.2 Water ----------------------------------------------------------------------------S1-55 5.9.3 Goods ---------------------------------------------------------------------------S1-55

5.10 Hygiene, Anti-affection, Exclamation of Dead Bodies -----------------------------S1-56 5.10.1 Mental Care --------------------------------------------------------------------S1-56 5.10.2 Health Care---------------------------------------------------------------------S1-56

5.11 Debris Treatment-------------------------------------------------------------------------S1-57 5.11.1 Building Debris ----------------------------------------------------------------S1-57 5.11.2 Garbage -------------------------------------------------------------------------S1-58 5.11.3 Human Waste ------------------------------------------------------------------S1-58

5.12 Reception of Foreign Aid ---------------------------------------------------------------S1-59

5.13 Emergency Transport Operation -------------------------------------------------------S1-59 5.13.1 Metro ----------------------------------------------------------------------------S1-59

5.14 Lifeline ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------S1-59 5.14.1 Responsibility of the Mayor of the ADMC --------------------------------S1-59

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5.14.2 Responsibility of the Utility Company -------------------------------------S1-60

5.15 Security------------------------------------------------------------------------------------S1-61 5.15.1 Activities of the Police in Emergency --------------------------------------S1-61

5.16 Recovery of Infrastructure --------------------------------------------------------------S1-61 5.16.1 Risky Slopes--------------------------------------------------------------------S1-61 5.16.2 Roads----------------------------------------------------------------------------S1-62

CHAPTER 6 REHABILITATION/REDEVELOPMENT PLAN

6.1 Recovery Measures ----------------------------------------------------------------------S1-63

6.2 Reconstruction of Houses ---------------------------------------------------------------S1-63

6.3 Collection of Donations -----------------------------------------------------------------S1-63

6.4 Redevelopment Plan ---------------------------------------------------------------------S1-63 6.4.1 Redevelopment Plan of Risky Area -----------------------------------------S1-63

CHAPTER 7 PEOPLE’S PARTICIPATION FOR LESS VULNERABLE CARACAS

7.1 Policy --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------S1-65

7.2 Organization ------------------------------------------------------------------------------S1-65

7.3 Strategy for the Government------------------------------------------------------------S1-65 7.3.1 Publication of Disaster Inforamtion-----------------------------------------S1-65 7.3.2 Identification of Community Organization---------------------------------S1-65 7.3.3 Assessment of the Strength of the Community ----------------------------S1-65 7.3.4 Strengthening of Community Organization --------------------------------S1-66 7.3.5 Introduction of Disaster Prevention Activities-----------------------------S1-66

7.4 Strategy for the Community ------------------------------------------------------------S1-66 7.4.1 Promotion of Disaster Prevention Activities-------------------------------S1-66 7.4.2 Collaboration with the Government-----------------------------------------S1-66

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S1

LIST OF TABLES

Table S1-1.8.1 Organization Framework for Disaster Management------------------- S1-6 Table S1-2.2.1 Financial Sources for “Urban Planning for a Stronger Caracas”----- S1-20 Table S1-2.2.2 Responsibility Table for “Urban Planning for a Stronger Caracas” - S1-20 Table S1-2.2.3 Financial Sources for Reinforcement of Buildings -------------------- S1-20 Table S1-2.2.4 Responsibility Table for “Retrofitting of Buildings” ------------------ S1-21 Table S1-2.2.5 Financial Sources for Sediment Disaster Prevention Structures ----- S1-21 Table S1-2.2.6 Organization for Construction of Mitigation Measures for Sediment Disaster --------------------------------------------------------- S1-22

S1 - 1

Preface

The purpose of this “Caracas Disaster Management Draft Plan” is to show an example of the structure of a comprehensive disaster management plan for a regional government.

There are several reasons why this part of the supporting report was prepared.

(1) This JICA study focused on “mitigation” and “preparation” parts and for “emergency responses” and “rehabilitation” parts, suggestions were made on the existing system according to the agreement made prior to the Study. However, an integrated regional disaster management plan should cover all the four stages of disaster management.

(2) The format of the main report of the study is following the TOR of JICA for the study and the report format is not always suitable for a disaster management plan.

(3) The JICA Study covers only three municipalities of the area, namely Libertador, Chacao and Sucre, while other two municipalities are out of the scope of the Study.

Therefore, here, as one part of the Supporting Report of the Study, a draft plan is presented taking a similar format of an integrated regional disaster management plan in Japan, covering four stages of disaster management and at the same time, covering the whole area of the Metropolitan District of Caracas.

Because of lack of any national plan for disaster prevention in Venezuela, the responsibilities of central government and the local governments are not clear for preparation of a regional disaster management plan. The responsibility for the central government and the local governments are items which should have been defined in the national disaster management plan. However, the Study Team dares to define these items in this draft after discussion with the counterpart team so that the authority can refer this draft when they prepare the national plan for disaster management. In order to be referred when the national disaster prevention plan or municipal disaster prevention plan are prepared, “items to be included in the national disaster prevention plan” and “items to be included in the municipal disaster prevention plan” are added in each item of the plan component.

As this is an only example of structure, some part of the draft is direct translation from a Japanese example and may not reflect the reality of the Metropolitan District of Caracas. It is necessary for the Venezuelan side to review this draft plan and finalize it.

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Summary of the Draft Plan

The grand vision of the Caracas Disaster Management Draft Plan is;

“Caracas Safe, if the Prevention Lasts”.

The purpose of this plan is to establish a clear guideline which shows all the government officials and the citizens in the Metropolitan District of Caracas how to manage the natural disasters which may attack the area in future and how to minimize the damage on the human lives, the properties and the function of the Area.

The target area of the plan is the whole area of the Metropolitan District of Caracas including five municipalities. The targets of protection from natural disasters are human lives, properties and function of the capital city. The disaster types targeted are earthquake disasters and sediment disasters (sediment disasters area composed of debris flow, landslide and steep slope failure), The target year of the plan is the year 2020 and the year 2012 is the intermediate goal.

The plan is covering four stages of disaster management, namely “mitigation”, “preparation”, “emergency response” and “rehabilitations”.

The three main objectives of the plan are;

Making a Safer Caracas by (1) Retrofitting risky buildings in the area,

(2) Reinforcing risky bridges in the area, and

(3) Constructing debris flow control structures.

(4) Promoting people to live away from risky area,

Acting Effectively in emergency by (5) Preparing Early Warning and Evacuation System,

(6) Constructing Emergency Command Center, and

Strengthening of Coordination between the Government and the Citizens (7) Strengthening of Community Activities.

The plan is elaborating policies realizing the above main objectives and other objectives in order to attain the goal of disaster management.

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S-1 CARACAS DISASTER MANAGEMENT DRAFT PLAN

CHAPTER 1. GENERAL

1. 1 Grand Vision of the Plan

“Caracas Safe, if the Prevention Lasts”

As it is clearly stated in the above slogan of the plan, in order to create a safer Caracas, it is absolutely necessary to develop prevention measures in the plan.

The plan shows the way to create safer Caracas through the realization of prevention measures and at the same time how to prepare and act effectively in crisis in natural disasters.

1. 2 Purpose of the Plan

The purpose of this plan is to establish a clear guideline which shows all the government officials and the citizens in the Metropolitan District of Caracas how to manage the natural disasters which may attack the area in future and how to minimize the damage on the human lives, the properties and the function of the capital city.

1. 3 Target Area

The target area for the plan is the Metropolitan District of Caracas composed of five municipalities, namely Libertador, Chacao, Sucre, Baruta and El Hatillo. The total area is 777 km2 and the total population in the year 2001 is 3.1 million

1. 4 Target of Protection

The targets for protection from disasters are “human lives”, “properties” and “function of the capital city”.

1. 5 Target Year

The target year of the plan is 2020. As the intermediate target, the year 2012 is set as the intermediate goal.

1. 6 Target Disaster Types

The target disaster types are “earthquake disasters” and “Sediment Disasters”. The sediment disasters include “debris flow disaster”, “landslide disasters” and “steep slope disasters”.

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1. 7 Structure of the Plan and the Main Objectives of the Plan

The plan is composed of chapters reflecting four stages of disaster management, namely “mitigation”, “preparation for emergency response”, “emergency response” and “rehabilitation/redevelopment”. “reparation stage” was divided into “preparation plan” and “stand-by plan”. One chapter for “people’s participation for invulnerable Caracas” was added. Mitigation Plan

Seismic Retrofitting of Buildings-----------------------------------------major project

Mitigation Measures for Transportation----------------------------------major project

Mitigation Measures for Sediment Disasters-----------------------------major project

Urban Planning for Invulnerable Caracas--------------------------------major project

Mitigation Measures for Lifelines

Mitigation Measures for Dams

Preparation Plan for Emergency Response

Early Warning for Sediment Disaster Prevention-----------------------major project

Establishment of Emergency Command Center-------------------------major project

Trainings and Drills

Establishment of Regional Network for Emergency Response

Preparation of Communication System

Establishment of Emergency Response Facilities

Preparation of Equipments

Establishment of Medical Service System in Disaster

Establishment of Emergency Transportation System

Stockpiling of Goods

Quick Screening of Damaged Buildings

Support for Volunteers

Fund Raising for Disaster Prevention

Stand-by Plan

Emergency Response Plan

Rehabilitation/Redevelopment Plan

People’s Participation for Less Vulnerable Caracas

Strengthening of Community Activities---------------------------------major project

1. 8 Main Objectives and Major Projects of the Plan

The three main objectives and seven major projects of the plan are defined as;

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Objective 1: Making a Safer Caracas

(1) In order to protect human lives and properties from earthquake disasters, to reinforce the risky

buildings in the area.

(2) In order to protect function as the capital city from earthquake disasters, to reinforce risky bridges in

the area.

(3) In order to protect human lives and properties from debris flow disasters, to construct debris flow

control structures.

(4) In order to protect human lives and properties from earthquake disasters or sediment disasters, to

promote the people living in the risky area to resettle.

Objective 2: Acting Effectively in Emergency

(5) In order to protect human lives from sediment disasters, to establish an early warning and evacuation

system.

(6) In order to protect human lives, properties and function as the capital city, an emergency command

center is established as the center of disaster management.

Objective 3: Strengthening the Coordination between the Government and the Citizens

(7) In order to promote mitigation and preparation measures for disaster prevention, to strengthening the

community activities for disaster prevention.

1. 9 Organization Framework

Table S1-1.8.1 shows the organization framework for the disaster management of the Metropolitan District of Caracas.

1. 10 Natural Features of the Area

Refer to Chapter 2, 3 and 4 of the Main Report

1. 11 Earthquake Disaster Scenario

Refer to Chapter 3 and 6 of the Main Report

1. 12 Sediment Disaster Scenario

Refer to Chapter 4 and 6 of the Main Report

1. 13 Social Vulnerability of the Area

Refer to Chapter 5 of the Main Report

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Table S1-1.8.1 Organization Framework for Disaster Management Management stage Mitigation Preparation for

emergency response

Stand-by Emergency response

Rehabilitation

Protection Civil, ADMC

Coordinator Coordinator Key actor Coordinator Coordinator

Fire Fighters, ADMC

- Key actor - Key actor -

Secretary of Urban Planning

and Environment, ADMC

Key actor - - - Coordinator

Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources

Key actor Key actor Key actor - Key actor

Ministry of Infrastructure

Key actor - - - Key actor

Municipalities Key actor Key actor - Key actor Key actor

CHAPTER 2. MITIGATION PLAN

2. 1 Policy

In the disaster management cycle, the mitigation measures are the firmest measures to reduce risk. Because of the necessity of a long term planning and comparatively large investment cost, this part of the disaster management cycle has not been focused in the area so far.

However, because of the significance of it, the mitigation measures take the first position in this disaster management plan. Mitigation is the first thing to be done for disaster prevention.

2. 2 Mitigation Measures

2. 2. 1. General

Mitigation measures are composed of “urban planning for invulnerable Caracas”, “seismic reinforcement of buildings”, “mitigation measures against sediment disasters”, “mitigation measures for dams”, “mitigation measures for transportation”, “mitigation measures for lifelines” and “mitigation measures for hazardous materials”.

The responsibility of mitigation measures lies in various related parties, from a ministry of the central government to an individual citizen who owns a house. In this plan, the policy of mitigation projects

S1 - 7

is described together with the institutional frame work for the implementation and the prospective financial sources.

2. 2. 2. Urban Planning for Less Vulnerable Caracas

(1) Land Use Planning

The land use planning shall be made by each municipality mayor, referring the hazard maps prepared by the Mayor of the ADMC. Mayors of the municipalities shall make efforts to encourage citizens living away from risk by applying the land use plan of the municipalities.

(Section in Charge of Urban Planning of Each Municipality)

(2) Housing Development Regulation

The application of housing development shall be permitted by each municipality mayor, referring the hazard maps prepared by the Mayor of the ADMC. Mayors of the municipalities shall make efforts to curtail further housing development in risky area in order to restrain the increase of the number of houses in risky areas.

(Engineers Department of Each Municipality)

(3) Resettlement from Risky Areas (one of the major projects)

The mayor of each municipality shall promote the resettlement of people in risky area along the mountain streams indicated in the debris flow hazard map prepared by the Mayor of the ADMC.

(Civil Protection Department of Each Municipality)

(4) Financial Sources

The financial sources for “urban planning for a strong Caracas” are proposed as shown in Table S1-2.2.1.

(5) Organization

The responsibilities for “urban planning for a strong Caracas” are proposed as shown in Table S1-2.2.2.

(6) Legal Background

The laws to support the project “urban planning for invulnerable Caracas” are as follows;

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- Constitution

- Official Gazette No.0016, 2003

(7) Items to be Included in National Disaster Prevention Plan 1) basic policy of “living away from risky area” 2) basic policy of preparation of hazard maps and land use planning 3) basic policy of housing development regulation 4) basic policy on resettlement of people from risky area 5) organization plan for the policy on “living away from risky area”.

(8) Items to be Included in Municipal Disaster Prevention Plan

Each municipality in the area shall include the following items in their disaster prevention plan 1) hazard maps prepared by the Mayor of the ADMC 2) land use planning 3) housing development regulation 4) resettlement plan of people in risky area

2. 2. 3. Seismic Reinforcement of Buildings (one of the major projects)

(1) Basic Policy

Seismic reinforcement of buildings is the most important project in this disaster management plan. It is the only certain way to save lives of the people in case of an earthquake. The retrofitting policy is defined taking into account the importance of each building in terms of function and significance.

(2) Reinforcement of Command Center Buildings

For the uninterrupted effective disaster management, the command center buildings should be strong enough to withstand the most severe disaster scenario.

The buildings falling into this category are as follows;

- the emergency command center of the central government

- the emergency command center of ADMC

- the office of the president of the country

- the office of the mayor of the ADMC

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- the offices of the mayors of the municipalities

- the office of the Ministry of Interior and Justice

- the office of the National Civil Protection

- the office of the Metropolitan Civil Protection

- the office of the Municipality Civil Protection

This category has the first priority. The building code to be applied for reinforcement is 2001 building code.

(central government and local government)

(3) Reinforcement of Other Government Buildings for Disaster Management

Other government buildings for disaster management operation are also strong enough to withstand the most severe disaster scenario.


- the offices of fire fighters of ADMC

- the offices of the Metropolitan Police

- the offices of the Municipality Police

- public schools for emergency evacuation buildings

- public and private hospitals for medical treatment services

This category has the second priority. The building code to be applied for reinforcement is 2001 building code.

(central government and local government)

(4) Reinforcement of Public Buildings

There are many public buildings in the area, which are privately owned but have public natures. These buildings shall have strength enough to protect the human lives in a large number.

The buildings falling into this category are as follows

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- other government buildings

- hotels

- public halls

- theaters

- department stores

- shopping malls

- churches

- schools

- other buildings for public assembly

This category has the third priority. The building code to be applied for reinforcement is 2001 building code.

(owners of the buildings, central government and local government)

(5) Reinforcement of Apartment Buildings

There exist many public and private apartment buildings where a large number of families live in one building. Considering the significant effect of such buildings once they collapse, they require more strength


- apartment buildings with the number of apartment five or more

This category has the fourth priority. The building code to be applied for reinforcement is 2001 building code.


(6) Reinforcement of Private Houses in Formal Urban Areas

Private flat houses are the majority in the formal area. In order to reduce the risk of loss of human lives, reinforcement of private flat houses in the formal area are promoted according to the different way from public buildings.

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The building code to be applied for reinforcement can be selected by the owner of each building depend upon the degree of conservativity against earthquake risks. The owner shall be able to access to hazard maps prepared by the Mayor of the ADMC as well as the alternative reinforcement methodologies prepared by the municipal mayors.

The Civil Protection of the ADMC and the Civil Protection of each municipality government shall promote reinforcement of private houses in urban area through publication and education.

This category has the fifth priority and the building code to be applied for reinforcement is selected by the building owners but 2001 building code is recommended.


(7) Reinforcement of Barrio Houses

Barrio houses are the most vulnerable houses in the area in terms of damage function. In order to save the large number of lives of the people living in barrio area, the central and the local government shall make efforts to promote reinforcement of barrio houses, through community education, promotion of community activity and enforcement of incentives as subsidy of the cost.

The category has the fifth priority and the reinforcement method shall be recommended by the relevant authorities of the government.


(8) Technical Procedure for Reinforcement

The technical procedure for reinforcement shall be composed of four steps as; 1st step rapid visual screening

2nd step detail seismic evaluation

3rd step seismic reinforcement design

4th step seismic reinforcement


The financial sources for the series of procedures for each category of buildings are shown in Table S1-2.2.3.

(10) Promotions

1) Ministry of Housing and Habitat

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- In order to promote reinforcement of risky buildings in barrio, the Ministry of Housing and Habitat shall include reinforcement plan of barrio houses when they prepare barrio renewal programs.

2) Municipality Mayors

In order to promote reinforcement of risky buildings, the mayors of the municipalities shall take the following measures;

- to designate “official notice sign of seismic safety” and let the owner of the public buildings to put the notice sign at the entrance of the building once the building is verified as strong enough or once the building is reinforced.

- to reduce property tax on the conditions that the building is strong enough or the building was reinforced.

(11) Organization

The organizations in charge of this reinforcement of buildings are shown in Table S1-2.2.4.


- Norm Convenin 1756-98 (Rev. 2001), Edificaciones Sismorresistentes (Ministerio del Desarrollo Urbano, FUNVISIS)

(13) Items to be Included in National Disaster Prevention Plan

1) basic policy on reinforcement of risky buildings

2) building code to be applied

3) basic policy on incentives for reinforcement of buildings

4) organization plan for the policy on reinforcement of risky buildings


Each municipality in the area shall include the following items in their disaster prevention plan

1) hazard maps prepared by the Mayor of the ADMC

2) rapid visual screening plan

3) reinforcement plan of the municipality

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2. 2. 4. Mitigation Measures against Sediment Disasters

(1) Debris Flow Control Structures (one of the major projects)

The central government shall make efforts to implement the construction of debris flow control structures in order to safeguard the human lives, properties and function as the capital city of the Metropolitan District of Caracas referring the proposal made by the Mayor of the ADMC.

(Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources)

(2) Improvement of Drainage Structures in Barrio Area

The Mayors of municipalities shall make efforts to improve drainage structures of the barrio area in order to safeguard the human lives and properties as proposed by the Mayor of the ADMC and the Central University of Venezuela.

(Engineers Department, Each Municipality)

(3) Steep Slope Failure and Landslide Prevention Structures

The Mayors of municipalities shall make efforts to implement the construction of steep slope failure and landslide prevention structures in order to safeguard the human lives, property and function as the capital city of the Metropolitan District of Caracas proposed by the Mayor of the ADMC.

The Ministry of Infrastructure shall make efforts to implement the construction of steep slope failure and landslide prevention structures in order to safeguard the function of major road network in the Metropolitan District of Caracas.

(Engineers Department of Each Municipality, Ministry of Infrastructure)

(4) Conservation of Mountain Areas

The Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources shall make efforts to conserve the forest of the sources of the mountain streams in order to impede the occurrence of debris flow from the mountain area.


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(6) Organization


- Environment Law

- Law of the National Organization of Civil Protection and Administration of Disasters


1) basic policy of sediment disaster prevention in the whole country

2) organization plan for sediment disaster prevention in the whole country


Each municipality in the area shall include the following items in their disaster prevention plan

1) hazard maps prepared by the Mayor of the ADMC

2) improvement plan of barrio drainage structures in the area

3) improvement plan of risky slopes in the area

2. 2. 5. Mitigation Measures for Dams

(1) Dam Safety

The owner of the dams in the area shall investigate the safety of their dams taking into account the disaster scenario earthquakes and disaster scenario rainfalls proposed by the Mayor of the ADMC. The owner of the dams also shall implement necessary measures to enhance the safety of the dams in case they found any deficiency of dame safety after investigation.

(Hydrocapital)


The owner of the dams will investigate and implement the safety measures by their own expenses.

(3) Organization

The owner of the dams in the area is Hydrocapital and they are in charge of the project.

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1) basic policy on dam safety in the whole country

2) organization plan for dam safety


None

2. 2. 6. Mitigation Measures for Transportation

(1) Roads (one of the major projects)

The owners of the road shall diagnose the safety of all the important bridges in the area considering the earthquake scenario of 1812 and shall make efforts to implement reinforcement of those bridges.

(Ministry of Infrastructure, municipalities)

(2) Metro

The owner of Metro shall diagnose the safety of the structure of Metro according to the 1812 earthquake scenario prepared by the Mayor of the ADMC and shall make efforts to implement reinforcement of those structures.

The owner of Metro shall diagnose the safety of the entrances of Metro stations according to the 100 year debris flow scenario prepared by the ADMC and shall make efforts to implement necessary measures to avoid submergences of stations by flood water.

(Metro company)

(3) Airport and Heliport

Owners of airport and heliport shall diagnose the safety of the structures of airports and heliports according to the 1812 earthquake scenario prepared by the Mayor of the ADMC and shall make efforts to reinforce the structures if it is necessary.

(Air Force, Private owners)


The financial sources for improvement of facilities considering the disaster scenarios are owners of the facilities.

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(5) Organization

The Mayor of the ADMC shall make recommendations to the owner of the facilities above to improve their facilities taking into account the risk simulated by the Mayor of the ADMC.

Organizations in charge of the improvement of the facilities considering the disaster scenarios are owner of the facilities.


1) basic policy on mitigation measures for transportation in the country

2) organization plan for mitigation measures for transportation


1) assessment result of road and bridge safety against earthquake scenarios

2) improvement plan of road and bridges in the municipalities

2. 2. 7. Mitigation Measures for Lifelines

(1) Electricity

Owners of electricity facilities in the area shall make efforts to diagnose the safety of the system based on 1812 earthquake scenario and proposed methodology by the Mayor of the ADMC and shall make efforts to reinforce necessary part of the system.

(Electricity Company of Venezuela)

(2) Gas

Owners of gas supply facilities in the area shall make efforts to diagnose the safety of the system based on 1812 earthquake scenario and proposed methodology by the Mayor of the ADMC and shall make efforts to reinforce necessary part of the system.

(PDVSA)

(3) Communication

Owners of telecommunication facilities in the area shall make efforts to diagnose the safety of the system based on 1812 earthquake scenario and proposed methodology by the Mayor of the ADMC and shall make efforts to reinforce necessary part of the system.

(CANTV, NetUNO, Telcel)

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(4) Water Supply

Owners of water supply facilities in the area shall make efforts to diagnose the safety of the system based on 1812 earthquake scenario and proposed methodology by the Mayor of the ADMC and shall make efforts to reinforce necessary part of the system.

(Hydrocapital, IMAS)

(5) Sewerage

Owners of water sewerage facilities in the area shall make efforts to diagnose the safety of the system based on 1812 earthquake scenario and proposed methodology by the Mayor of the ADMC and shall make efforts to reinforce necessary part of the system.

(Hydrocapital, IMAS)


The owner of the public facilities have to check the safety of their facilities and have to take necessary measures considering the public nature of their facilities.

(7) Organization

The Mayor of the ADMC shall make recommendations to the owner of the facilities above to improve their facilities taking into account the risk simulated by the Mayor of the ADMC.

Organizations in charge of the improvement of the facilities considering the disaster scenarios are owner of the facilities.


1) basic policy on mitigation measures for lifelines in the country

2) organization plan for mitigation measures for lifelines in the country


None

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2. 2. 8. Mitigation Measures for Hazardous Materials

(1) Gas Station

The owners of gas station shall make efforts to diagnose the safety of their facilities considering the 1812 earthquake scenario prepared by the Mayo of the ADMC and take necessary measures if necessary.


The owners of gas station have to check the safety of their facilities and have to take necessary measures considering the public nature of their facilities.

(3) Organization

The owner of gas station is responsible for all the countermeasures.


1) basic policy on mitigation measures for hazardous materials

2) organization plan on mitigation measures for hazardous materials

2. 3 Promotion of Research for Mitigation Measures

2. 3. 1. Research on Earthquake Disaster Prevention

(1) Research on Seismic Building Reinforcement

FUNVISIS and other research institutions on earthquake engineering shall make efforts to research on seismic reinforcement of building in the area. Much effort shall be needed for research on vulnerability of barrio houses and reinforcement techniques of barrio houses.

(FUNVISIS)

(2) Research on Seismic Bridge Reinforcement

FUNVISIS, the Technical Committee that elaborates the COVENIN norms and other research institutes on earthquake engineering shall make efforts to research on seismic reinforcement of bridges in the area.

(FUNVISIS)

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2. 3. 2. Research on Sediment Disaster Prevention

(1) Research on Debris Flow Control Structures

Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources and other research institutes on sediment control structures shall make efforts to research on sediment control structures in the area.


(2) Research on Urban Drainage Structures in Formal Urban Area

Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources, each municipalities and other research institutions on urban drainage structures shall make efforts to diagnoses the configuration of urban drainage structures in the area to access the drainage capacity and problems of urban drainage in the area considering the debris flow scenario prepared by the Mayor of the ADMC.


(3) Research on Drainage Structures in Barrio Area

Ministry of Infrastructure, the Central University of Venezuela, municipalities shall make efforts to research on better methods of drainage improvement of barrio area.


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Table S1-2.2.1 Financial Sources for “Urban Planning for a Stronger Caracas” Item Financial Sources

Land Use Planning Municipality government Housing Development Regulation Municipality government

Resettlement from Risky Areas Municipality government, Ministry of Housing

Table S1-2.2.2 Responsibility Table for “Urban Planning for a Stronger Caracas” Organization Responsibility

Metropolitan Civil Protection -Preparation of hazard maps and risk maps Secretary of Urban Planning and

Environment, ADMC -Coordination among municipalities

Urban Planning Dep. of Each Municipality

Engineers Department of Each Municipality

Civil Protection Department of Each Municipality

-Preparation of a land use plan -Enforcement of the land use plan -Regulation of housing development -Resettlement of people living in risky area

Table S1-2.2.3 Financial Sources for Reinforcement of Buildings Command

Center Buildings

Other Government Buildings for

Disaster Management

Public Buildings

Apartment Buildings

Private Houses in Formal Area

Barrio Houses

RVS government government government government government governmentEvaluation government government Owner Owner Owner government

Design government government Owner Owner Owner Owner Reinforcement government government Owner Owner Owner Owner

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Table S1-2.2.4 Responsibility Table for “Retrofitting of Buildings” Organization Responsibility

Ministry of Housing - legislation of policy and procedure for seismic

reinforcement of buildings

- establishment of building code

- reinforcement methods recommended

- to implement government building reinforcement

- to implement barrio improvement projects FUNVISIS - establishment of building code

- establishment of rapid visual screening method Metropolitan government - preparation of risk maps of ADMC

- preparation of ordinances for the purpose

- preparation of barrio houses reinforcement policy


Municipality government - preparation of ordinances for the purpose

- rapid visual screening

- to designate “official notice sign of seismic safety”


Private consultants - detail seismic diagnosis

- design of seismic reinforcement

Private owners of public buildings

and apartment buildings

- to implement building reinforcement according to the

policy of the government

- to place “official notice sign of seismic safety” in

front of their buildings

Community - to promote the building owners to reinforce their

houses

Table S1-2.2.5 Financial Sources for Sediment Disaster Prevention Structures Debris flow control

structures Drainage Structures

in Barrio Area Steep Slope Failure and Landslide

Prevention Structures

Plan MARN Municipality Municipality/Ministry of Infrastructure Design MARN Municipality Municipality/Ministry of Infrastructure

Implementation MARN Municipality Municipality/Ministry of Infrastructure Maintenance Municipality Municipality Municipality/Ministry of Infrastructure

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Table S1-2.2.6 Organization for Construction of Mitigation Measures for Sediment Disaster

Organization Responsibility

MARN -study, plan, design and implementation of

debris flow control structures

- study and renewal of debris flow hazard maps

- watershed management FUNVISIS/INGEOMIN - study on risky slopes

Metropolitan Civil Protection - identification of risky slopes

Municipality Office - maintenance of debris flow control structures

- slope protection structures

Ministry of Housing, through

CONAVI

- slope protection structures

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CHAPTER 3. PREPARATION PLAN FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE

3. 1 Policy

In disaster management cycle, the preparation measures are essential for effective emergency response. Therefore, the preparation for emergency response comes after the mitigation measures in the disaster management plan.

3. 2 Preparation Plan

3. 2. 1. Organization

The organization set up for preparation plan for emergency response is defined according to the level of the institution, namely, the Metropolitan level and the municipality level.

(1) Organization of ADMC

The organizations of preparation for emergency response in the ADMC are described below.

- Mayor

- Coordination Committee for Civil Protection and Disaster Management

- Operation Control Center

- Metropolitan Civil Protection

- Metropolitan Fire Fighters’ Department

- Metropolitan Police

1) Mayor

The Mayor of the ADMC is the maximum executive authority on the matter of civil protection and disaster attention as defined in the Law of the National Organization of Civil Protection and Administration of Disasters;

The Governor and the Mayor in their respective territorial ambits are the maximum executive authority on the matter of Civil Protection and Disasters Attention

2) Coordination Committee for Civil Protection and Disaster Management

The Law of the National Organization of Civil Protection and Administration of Disasters says;

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The State and Municipalities will have to structure and maintain a Coordination Committee of Civil Protection and Administration of Disasters

The function of the “Coordination Committee for Civil Protection and Disaster Management” is defined in the DECREE No. 219, dated 4th of March of 2004 as;

The Metropolitan Coordinator Committee of Civil Protection and Disasters Administration has the following functions: (1) To plan, coordinate and develop activities with the agencies of the national, state and

municipal public powers, likewise with public and/or private institutions. (2) To promote and coordinate the measures for the prevention, education, protection,

mitigation, attention, recovery and administration from disasters in the Metropolitan District of Caracas.

3) Operation Control Center

a) Organization of Operation Control Center

The Mayor of the ADMC shall designate the Operation Control Center (OCC), which has a command function of emergency response during the emergency situation of natural disasters.

The organization of the Operation Control Center is as follows;

Head; the Mayor of the ADMC Location; the Emergency Command Center (to be constructed newly) Organization; - command unit the Mayor of the ADMC the Secretary of Citizen Security - planning unit the Director of Metropolitan Civil Protection - operation unit the Firefighter Brigade Major of the ADMC the Metropolitan Police General Director the Secretary of Health - logistic unit the Secretary of General Affairs - financial unit the Secretary of Finance

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b) Function of Each Unit

- Command Unit

This unit functions as the commander of all the disaster management organizations of the ADMC during the emergency. The chief commander is the Mayor of the ADMC and the assistant commander is the Secretary of Citizen Security of the ADMC.

- Planning Unit

This unit functions as the planning force including data collection, data analysis and emergency plan for effective response during the emergency. This unit shall provide the command unit with proper information, which facilitates the command unit to give correct judgment.

- Operation Unit

This unit functions as the operation unit under the command unit and act effectively during the emergency situation.

- Logistics Unit

This unit functions for the logistic operation during the emergency period and facilitate the whole function of the Operation Control Center.

- Finance Unit

This unit functions as financial support during the emergency period and enable the Operation Control Center to implement necessary measures to cope with the situation.

4) Metropolitan Civil Protection

Head (command)

Operation Logistics Finance Plan

Organization of Emergency Command Task Force

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The responsibility of metropolitan civil protection is defined as follows in the Law of the National Organization of Civil Protection and Administration of Disasters;

To Define and approve the plans of civil protection, preparation and attention of disasters of the states and municipalities, in accordance with the guidelines emanated from the National Coordinating Committee of Civil Protection and Administration of Disasters

- To contribute with functional and operational resources for the services of prevention and fire-fighting, and of search and rescue that exist within the geographic areas of their responsibility.

- The promotion and development of citizen self-protection.

- To design plans and develop educational and training programs for the communities in local practice of risk management and civil defense.

- The promotion and functional support in the development and maintenance in training and qualification of the personnel of services, which are related to the Civil Protection and Administration of Disasters.

5) Fire Fighters and Police

The responsibilities of fire fighters and police are defined as follows in the Law of the National Organization of Civil Protection and Administration of Disasters;

Organizations of Primary Attention: These are the agencies of Citizen Security whose natural mission is the attention of emergencies, such is the case of the bodies of policemen and firemen.

(2) Organization of Other Institutions

The responsibilities of national institutions, private companies of utilities, and other support agencies shall be defined in the National Disaster Prevention Plan.

1) Ministries and Private Companies of Utilities

The Law of the National Organization of Civil Protection and Administration of Disasters says,

Organizations of Secondary Attention: These are public or private institutions that, by virtue of their specialty or resources and in the presence of an emergency, can be called by the Organizations of primary attention to collaborate in the attention.

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2) Red Cross, Universities and others


Organization of Support: These are public or private institutions that, of eventual manner, may contribute resources or necessary information in the process of protection and administration of disasters.

(3) Organization of municipalities


The governments of the states and municipalities will have to count with their own Organizations of Civil Protection and Administration of Disasters in accordance with the present Law Decree.

The State and Municipalities will have to structure and maintain a Coordination Committee of Civil Protection and Administration of Disasters

The organizations of preparation for emergency response in the municipalities are described below. The responsibilities of these organizations shall be defined in the Municipality Disaster Prevention Plan.

- Coordination Committee for Civil Protection and Disaster Management

- Municipality Civil Protection

- Municipality Police

3. 2. 2. Trainings and Drills

(1) Trainings

The Mayor of the ADMC shall give training to all the personnel of the organization in order to act effectively in the case of emergency for disaster management.

The training will include comprehension of the disaster management plan, especially the disaster scenarios presented in the form of hazard maps and risk maps.

(Metropolitan Civil Protection)

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(2) Drills

The Mayor of the ADMC shall organize emergency response drills in order to train the personnel of ADMC and the citizens in the case of disaster emergency. The participants for the drills are the ADMC, the municipalities, lifeline owners, community disaster prevention organizations, schools and volunteers.

The Metropolitan Protection Civil shall prepare a manual to be used by the Metropolitan government personnel in order to instruct them how to act effectively in emergency cases.

(Metropolitan Civil Protection Department)

1) drills on maps

- The Metropolitan Civil Protection shall organize emergency drills on maps including related governmental agencies in order to practice effective emergency response.

- The Municipal Civil Protection shall organize emergency drills on maps including community in order to practice effective emergency response.

2) drills in the field

- The Metropolitan Civil Protection shall organize an emergency drill in the field, once a year during the first week of May, including related governmental agencies in order to practice effective emergency response.

- The Municipal Civil Protection shall organize emergency drills in the field including community in order to practice effective emergency response, aiming on the same day when the Metropolitan Civil Protection organizes a drill in the field.

(Metropolitan Civil Protection Department, Municipal Civil Protection)

3. 2. 3. Establishment of Regional Network for Emergency Response

(1) Agreement of Mutual Cooperation with Neighbor States

The Mayor the ADMC shall make efforts to establish agreements with neighbor states such as Vargas State and Miranda State for mutual cooperation during emergency cases considering the earthquake scenario of 1967.

The agreements will include the following items;

- provision of required materials and equipments for emergency response and emergency recovery

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- provision of required goods for emergency response

- dispatch of personnel for emergency response operations


(2) Agreement of Mutual Cooperation among Five Municipalities

The Mayor of the ADMC shall make efforts to collaborate for implementation of agreements among five municipality mayors for mutual cooperation during emergency cases considering the earthquake scenario of 1967.


- provision of required materials and equipments for emergency response and emergency recovery

- provision of required goods for emergency response

- dispatch of personnel for emergency response operations


3. 2. 4. Establishment of Emergency Response Facilities

(1) Utilization of Existing Parks in the Area

The public parks in the area are valuable resources for emergency evacuation spaces. The Mayor of the ADMC shall make efforts to establish agreements with the park administrators so that those resources can be fully utilized during emergency.


- definition of the occasion when the park is utilized as emergency evacuation place

- condition of the utilization of the park

- security of the area during the time when it is used as emergency evacuation place

- the maximum duration that can be utilized as evacuation place

- introduction of police force to keep the order in the area

- publication of the name of the parks for dissemination of the information

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(Metropolitan Civil Protection )

(2) Utilization of Existing Large Public Spaces in the Area

The Mayor of the AMDC shall make efforts to establish agreements with the owners of the large public spaces so that those resources can be fully utilized in the case of emergency.

The large public spaces to be designated as the emergency evacuation spaces are as follows;


- definition of the occasion when the building is utilized as emergency evacuation place

- condition of the utilization of the building

- security of the building during the time when it is used as emergency evacuation place



- publication of the name of the buildings for dissemination of the information


(3) Utilization of Existing Public School Buildings in the Area

The public school buildings means those schools with open spaces for evacuation space such as a gymnasium or a school yard.

The Mayor of the AMDC shall make efforts to establish agreements with the owners of the public school buildings so that those resources can be fully utilized in the case of emergency.


- definition of the occasion when the building is utilized as emergency evacuation place

- condition of the utilization of the building

- security of the building during the time when it is used as emergency evacuation place



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- publication of the name of the buildings for dissemination of the information


(4) Community Emergency Evacuation Spaces

The Mayor of the ADMC shall make efforts to establish community emergency evacuation spaces for each community collaborating with municipality mayors. The Mayor of the ADMC shall propose the necessary spaces and locations of community emergency spaces to the municipality mayors.

The municipality mayors shall make efforts to establish agreements with the owner of the buildings for the utilization of the buildings for such purpose.


(5) Emergency Evacuation Spaces in Neighbor States

The Mayor of the ADMC shall make efforts to establish agreements with governors of neighbor states on the provision of emergency evacuation space considering the scenario of 1967 earthquake.


3. 2. 5. Preparation of Equipments

The municipality mayors and the Mayor of the ADMC shall make efforts to establish stockpiling of equipments necessary for emergency response. Required equipments are categorized as;

(1) equipments for people

- portable toilet

- plastic sheets

(2) equipments for rescue operation

- flood light

- air jack

- hydraulic jack

- breaker with engine

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- manual winch

- manual fire fighting hose

- rescue rope

- portable toilet

- engine concrete cutter

- chain saw

- hydraulic cutter

- gloves

The Mayor of the ADMC shall make efforts to establish stockpiling of equipments necessary for rescue operation in a large area.

equipments for rescue operation

- tent

- flood light

- forklift

- engine generator

- portable bed


3. 2. 6. Establishment of Medical Service System

(1) Establishment of Area Network Medical Service Center

The Mayor of the ADMC shall establish an area network medical service center in the area. This center shall have complete database of hospitals, clinics, doctors, nurses, ambulances together with the database of lifeline and road network. It also has the disaster management information database prepared by the Mayor of the ADMC by which the disaster scenario can be reviewed.

The Mayor of the ADMC shall direct dispatching of medical rescue teams and transporting patients in the case of emergency according to the information of the center.

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(2) Establishment of Area Medical Service Information Network

The Mayor of the ADMC shall make efforts to establish the information network on area medical service, which is based in the Area Network Medical Service Center.

(3) Establishment of Principle Hospitals for Emergency Medical Service

The Mayor of the ADMC shall make efforts to designate principle hospitals in the area for emergency medical service and shall make efforts to reinforce the buildings to the level where they will withstand the 1812 scenario and their medical service can be maintained in the case of emergencies.

(4) Stockpiling of Medicines

The Mayor of the ADMC shall make efforts to stockpile medicines for emergency use in the Area Network Medical Service Center or principle hospitals in the area. The stockpiling plan shall be prepared by the Area Network Medical Service Center taking into account the disaster scenario of 1967.

(5) Database of Doctors

The Area Network Medical Service Center shall carry out training for personnel on emergency rescue operation and emergency medical services.

The Area Network Medical Service Center shall have a database of doctors and volunteer doctors in order to mobilize in emergency.

3. 2. 7. Establishment of Emergency Transportation System

(1) Emergency Road Network

The Mayor of the ADMC shall make a plan of emergency road network considering the earthquake scenario of 1967. The police offices of the ADMC and municipality police offices shall make a plan of emergency road transportation according to the emergency road network plan prepared by the Mayor of the ADMC.

(2) Emergency Heliport

The Mayor of the ADMC shall establish a plan for emergency heliport in the area.

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3. 2. 8. Stockpiling of Goods

(1) Policy

- During three days after a large scale disaster, it may be difficult to bring necessary goods from outside of the area and it is necessary to stockpile goods within the area.

- The Mayor of the ADMC and municipality mayors shall promote citizens to stockpile three days of foods, water and daily goods at home or at the office.

- The municipality mayors shall make efforts to stockpile goods for emergency service considering the earthquake scenario of 1967 prepared by the Mayor of the ADMC.

- The Mayor of the ADMC shall make efforts to supplement the stockpile of municipalities assuming the number of refugee from the scenario earthquake of 1967.

- The Mayor of the ADMC shall stockpile three days of foods for the emergency operation personnel of the ADMC.

(2) Foods

The target people for food stockpiling plan is as follows;

- Refugees in the evacuation place

- Citizens who can not cook at home because of damaged facilities

- People in hospitals or in hotels

- People engaged in rescue operation

3. 2. 9. Quick Screening of Damaged Buildings

(1) Establishment of System for Quick Screening of Damage Buildings

- The Mayor of the ADMC shall make efforts to establish a system for quick screening of damage buildings through the Coordination Committee for Disaster Management.

(2) Preparation of Manual for Quick Screening of Damaged Buildings

- FUNVISIS shall prepare a manual for quick screening of damaged buildings, which can be used by municipal engineers as well as individual engineers.

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- FUNVISIS shall prepare a manual for quick screening of damaged roads, especially damaged bridges, which can be used by municipal engineers as well as individual engineers.

- FUNVISIS shall prepare inventory of qualified engineers, who can work after a large earthquake and a large number of engineers are required for quick screening.

(3) Stockpiling of Required Equipments for Damage Building Screening

The Mayor of the ADMC, together with the mayors of municipalities, shall make efforts to stockpile equipments for quick screening of damaged buildings, such as quick screening sheets, stickers, detail map of the area, identification cards for personnel.

3. 2. 10. Early Warning and Evacuation System for Debris Flow Disaster Prevention (one of the major objectives)

(1) Organizations

The organizations for emergency response with early warning are defined as stated in the agreement signed among MARN, ADMC, Municipality Governments and UCV.

1) Responsibility of Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources

- Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (Caracas Regional Office of IMANEH, herein called IMANEH- CRO) has responsibility to collect and distribute the information on hydrology and meteorology such as weather synopsis, rainfall forecast by IMANEH radar system, real time rainfall amount and water level in river and mountain streams, which would become the factors on debris flow disasters.

- IMANEH-CRO shall issue the regional warning for the entire Caracas based on its own criteria.

- All the equipments for the hydro-meteorological data measurement shall be operated and maintained by IMANEH-CRO.

- IMANEH-CRO shall make suggestions and recommendation on technical part for the disaster prevention plan prepared by ADMC.

2) Responsibility of Metropolitan District of Caracas

- Metropolitan District of Caracas (herein after ADMC) has responsibility to establish Operation Control Center (herein after OCC) within the Metropolitan District of

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Caracas, manage, operate and finance the OCC and issue the local warning on the sediment disasters.

3) Responsibility of Municipalities

- Municipalities have responsibility to support the OCC in the part of human resources and logistics.

- Municipalities shall support the creation of self-disaster prevention groups in the communities.

4) Responsibility of Specific Organizations

- Specific organization such as Universities, public services will provide information and technical advises necessary for the operation of OCC.

5) Responsibility of Communities

- Communities have responsibility to create self-disaster prevention groups.

- Communities keep close communication with OCC in emergency and organize the people and execute the evacuation.

Communities shall observe water level and rainfall amount voluntarily both in normal time and emergency time and report those information to OCC.

(2) Preparation

The related agencies for the early warning and evacuation for sediment disaster prevention shall prepare for the emergency response according to the agreement made among.

3. 3 Promotion of Research for Preparation Measures

3. 3. 1. Seismic Observation Network

FUNVISIS shall make efforts to establish and develop the seismic observation network covering the area of the Metropolitan District of Caracas, in order to make quick and accurate observation of earthquake motion distribution in the area once an earthquake happen and to make quick assessment of actual damage in the area.

3. 3. 2. Meteorological/Hydrological Observation Network

The Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources shall develop the meteorological and hydrological observation network to cover the area of the Metropolitan District of Caracas and the

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surrounding area, in order for on-time and accurate observation of the phenomena and to make quick prediction of future phenomena to cause sediment disasters.

3. 3. 3. Research on Seismic Phenomenon

FUNVISIS shall make efforts to accumulate information of earthquake phenomena in the area, in order to improve the preparation measures for earthquake.

3. 3. 4. Research on Sediment Disaster Prevention

(1) Research on Debris Flow and Rainfall

The Minister of Environment and Natural Resources shall promote and develop the research on debris flow phenomena and rainfall amount in the area so that it will make the prediction and warning of debris flow in the area.

The Mayor of the ADMC shall make efforts to accumulate debris flow disaster information and input it to the disaster information system.

(2) Research on Steep Slope Failure and Landslide

The Minister of Environment and Natural Resources shall promote and develop the research on steep slope failure and landslide in the area so that it will make the prediction and warning of steep slope failure and landslide in the area.

The Mayor of the ADMC shall make efforts to accumulate steep slope failure and landslide disaster information and input it to the disaster information system.

CHAPTER 4. STAND-BY PLAN FOR EMERGENCY RESPONSE

4. 1 Policy

For effective emergency response, it is necessary to establish a system, which will shift the whole system from a normal stage to an emergency response stage. Especially, in the case of sediment disaster, the stand-by system for emergency response is very important

as the timing of this will determine the success of the early warning and evacuation process itself.

4. 2 Organization

The organizations related to the stand-by plan for the sediment disaster prevention are as follows;

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- organization in charge of uninterrupted observation

- organization in charge of analysis of the information sent from the organization (1) and judge the necessity to call the Operation Control Center

- Operation Control Center

4. 3 Stand-by Plan for Sediment Disaster

4. 3. 1. Organization in Charge of Uninterrupted Observation

The Mayor of the ADMC shall designate one organization in the ADMC, where the office is operated 24 hours a day every week, who shall carry out uninterrupted observation of meteorological and hydrological information for the purpose of emergency organization initiative.

A technical committee shall prepare the protocol to be used by the “organization in charge of uninterrupted observation” when they have to send alert to the Head of Organization in Charge of Analysis of the Observed Information.

4. 3. 2. Organization in Charge of Analysis the Observed Information

The Metropolitan Civil Protection shall be the responsible organization, which shall receive information from the organization in charge of uninterrupted observation. The Metropolitan Civil Protection shall judge whether they should call the Operation Control Center. The Metropolitan Civil Protection, when it is judged as very urgent, is able to dispatch alert without the consent of the Operation Control Center.

4. 3. 3. Operation Control Center (OCC)

The Operation Control Center shall make command for any action for emergency response, including dispatching alert or recommendation of evacuation.

4. 3. 4. Shift to the Emergency Response Stage

Upon the call of the Operation Control Center, the stage of disaster management shall shift from the stand-by stage to the emergency response stage.

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CHAPTER 5. EMERGENCY RESPONSE PLAN

5. 1 Policy

There are two cases in emergency response.

One case is like a big earthquake where the shock wave attacks the whole area without any warning and the whole system of emergency response should be mobilized as an emergency reaction.

Another case is like a debris flow disaster, where a long time symptom is observed before debris flow disaster happens, the emergency response is initiated by the judgment of alert.

5. 2 Organization for Emergency Response without Warning

5. 2. 1. Organizations Defined in the Law

The responsibilities of the organizations in the law are described in Chapter 3 of this plan.

5. 2. 2. Responsibility of the Operation Control Center

The responsibility of the Operation Control Center is defined in Chapter 3 of this Plan.

5. 2. 3. Mobilization of the Operation Control Center

The Operation Control Center shall be mobilized by the command of the head of the Operation Control Center (the Mayor of the ADMC) or by the request of the Director of the Metropolitan Civil Protection when it is necessary to mobilize the Operation Control Center.

5. 3 Organization for Emergency Response with Early Warning

5. 3. 1. Organization

Responsibilities of organizations for early warning and evacuation are defined in Chapter 3 of this plan.

5. 3. 2. Mobilization of OCC

The OCC shall be mobilized according to the Stand-by Plan for Emergency Response described in Chapter 4.

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5. 3. 3. Early Warning and Evacuation Operation

(1) General

- Early Warning shall be issued in order to save the life and mitigate the damage for the property.

- The method to issue early warning, distribute the early warning, recommend the evacuation and cancel of the issued warnings shall be specified by the implementing law prepared in the committee on early warning.

- Nobody can use the similar early warning method.

(2) Collection and Distribution of Information

- All the involved organizations with early warning have to make efforts to collect and distribute information on sediment disaster.

(3) Issue of Warning

- There are two (2) kinds of warning in terms of its locality, namely regional warning and local warning. The regional warning shall be issued by the IMANEH-CRO for the region of entire Caracas based on the definition of IMANEH. The local warning shall be issued by OCC in ECC for specific areas in Caracas.

- The local warning shall be categorized into two (2) in terms of the seriousness. The categorization and the corresponding hydrological index such as critical rainfall shall be decided by the technical working group of the Committee on Early Warning in ADMC.

- When the head of OCC issues the local warning, he has to inform the issuing to the related organizations.

- When the Major of municipalities receives or knows the issued warning, he has to inform the issuing to the related organizations.

- If the issuing of warning needs the urgent operation, the head of OCC and the Major of municipalities can use some public utilities such as telephone lines and TV broadcasting stations exclusively.

- If the head of OCC and the Major of municipalities recognize the anticipated issuing of warning, they can order the Fire Fighter Department of ADMC and Civil Protection of

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municipalities to standby or request the Police Department of ADMC to prepare some necessary operations.

(4) Issue of Evacuation

- The OCC will make recommendation on evacuation for the subjective communities based on the level of local warning.

- The Major of the municipality in which the communities are recommended to evacuate by the OCC has to order the Police and Fire Fighter of the municipality to conduct some necessary operations.

(5) Cancellation of Local Warning

- The OCC will cancel the issued local warning based on the weather synopsis provided by the IMANEH-CRO and the local hydrological information observed by communities. The OCC has to inform the cancellation to the public widely.

5. 4 Collection and Transformation of Information on Damage

5. 4. 1. Collection of Information on Natural Phenomena

The Planning Unit of the OCC shall collect information on natural phenomena, which caused the disaster and identify the mechanism of the disaster.

The information sources for the natural phenomena are as follows;

(1) Earthquake Information

- FUNVISIS shall observe the earthquake phenomena in the area by their observation network and shall provide the Metropolitan Civil Protection with the information on the earthquake affecting the Metropolitan District of Caracas.

- FUNVISIS shall dispatch information on the earthquake to the Metropolitan Civil Protection as well as mass media immediately after getting information.

(2) Meteorological / Hydrological Information

- the Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources shall provide the Metropolitan Civil Protection with necessary meteorological / Hydrological information according to the agreement.

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- the Planning Unit of the OCC shall interpret the meteorological / Hydrological information provided by the MARN and shall refer the criteria values proposed by the Standing Committee in order to give information for judgment on emergency response.

5. 4. 2. Quick Estimation of Damage Distribution Using the Simulation Result

The Planning Unit of the OCC shall make quick estimation of damage distribution by using the simulation results prepared by the Mayor of the ADMC in the case of earthquake disasters and the sediment disasters.

5. 4. 3. Collection of Information on Human Casualties

The Planning Unit of the OCC shall make efforts to assess the magnitude and distribution of human casualties in the whole area in order to make a proper response plan during emergency.

Information on human casualties shall come from communities, polices and fire fighters.

5. 4. 4. Collection of Information on Building Damage

The Planning Unit of the OCC shall make efforts to collect information on building damage distribution in the area in order to estimate the human casualty distribution and to make rescue operation plan.

5. 4. 5. Collection of Information on Transportation Damage

The responsible agencies for transportation shall make efforts to collect information on damage to the transportation system in charge and transmit information to the Metropolitan Civil Protection.

5. 4. 6. Collection of Information on Lifelines Damage

The responsible agencies of lifeline shall make efforts to collect information on damage on the lifelines in charge and report to the Metropolitan Civil Protection.

5. 4. 7. Quick Screening of Damaged Buildings

The mayor of the municipalities shall organize a team for “quick screening of damage buildings” composed of engineers of each municipality and registered engineers by the Mayor of the ADMC.

The team shall use the manual prepared by FUNVISIS on quick screening of damage buildings.

(1) Implementation Program

1) Organizations in Charge

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Mayors of the municipalities shall establish a group of engineers to perform the task.

2) Target Buildings

Target buildings are all buildings, which suffered from earthquake damage in the area.

3) Methodology

The mayors of the municipalities shall make quick screening of damaged buildings according to the manual.

When the damage is very large, the mayors of the municipalities can request for help from the Mayor of the ADMC or the national government.

4) Report

The result of the screening shall be reported to the Mayor of the ADMC and shall be utilized for rehabilitation and redevelopment purpose.

5. 4. 8. Quick Screening of Damaged Bridges

(1) Implementation of Quick Screening

The Ministry of Infrastructure shall conduct quick screening of damage bridges by their engineers and consultants based on the standard and the operation manual prepared by FUNVISIS.

(2) Judgment of Utility

The Ministry of Infrastructure shall judge the usability of all the road system under the administration of the ministry according to the result of the screening.

(3) Plan of Emergency Road Network

The Ministry of Infrastructure shall make a plan of emergency road network together with the Metropolitan Police as well as the Municipality Police by the coordination of the Metropolitan Civil Protection.

(4) Report of the Emergency Road Network Plan

The Ministry of Infrastructure shall make a report of the emergency road network to the Metropolitan Civil Protection for the use of the emergency response plan.

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5. 5 Collaboration with Related Agencies

5. 5. 1. Request of Help from National Government Agencies

The Mayor of the ADMC can request of help from the national governmental agencies according to the agreement, which have been made between the Mayor of the ADMC and the governmental agencies.

When such request is made, the Mayor of the ADMC shall make the following points clear;

- the reason why the help is required

- required number of personnel, equipments, materials

- the place where the help is required

- the rout where the help comes into the area

- the duration of help and other things

（1）Request of Help from Other States

The Mayor of the ADMC can request of help from the other states according to the agreement, which have been made between the Mayor of the ADMC and the other states.

- Provision of foods, water and other daily goods.

- Provision of equipments for rescue operation, medical service and sanitation

- Provision of materials and equipments for rehabilitation

- Provision of personnel required for medical service, technical service, engineering works, information collection and information transmission.

- Provision of evacuation spaces and acceptance of injured people

- Other items especially requested

When such request is made, the Mayor of the ADMC shall make the following points clear;

- Damage condition

- Items and quantities of goods required and the destination, transportation measures and rout of transportation

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- Activities, professionals and numbers of personnel required. The places of work, duration of work and the transportation measures to the place.

5. 6 Early Warning, Evacuation and Rescue Operation

5. 6. 1. Early Warning

Organizations related to the early warning are;

- National Civil Protection

- Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources

- Metropolitan Distict of Caracas

- Municipalities

- Specific organizations

- Communities

The responsibility of each organization above is as follows;

(1) Responsibility of National Civil Protection

National Civil Protection is responsible for the national level coordination among MARN, ADMC and Municipalities.

(2) Responsibility of Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources

- Ministry of Environment and Natural Resources (Caracas Regional Office of INAMEH, herein called INAMEH- CRO) has responsibility to collect and distribute the information on hydrology and meteorology such as weather synopsis, rainfall forecast by INAMEH radar system, real time rainfall amount and water level in river and mountain streams, which would become the factors on sediment disasters.

- INAMEH-CRO will issue the regional warning for the entire Caracas Metropolitan Area based on its own criteria.

- All equipment for the hydro-meteorological data measurement will be operated and maintained by INAMEH-CRO.

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- INAMEH-CRO will make suggestions and recommendation on technical part for the disaster prevention plan prepared by the ADMC.

(3) Responsibility of Metropolitan District of Caracas

- Metropolitan District of Caracas (herein after ADMC) has responsibility to establish an Operation Control Center (herein after OCC) within the Metropolitan District of Caracas. The function of the OCC is to issue the local warning on the sediment disasters. The OCC will be specified project in the Disaster Prevention Plan prepared by ADMC.

(4) Responsibility of Municipalities

- Municipalities have the responsibility and the obligation to support the OCC directories in regards to operations and logistics.

- Municipalities shall support the creation of self-directed (managed) prevention groups in the communities.

(5) Responsibility of Specific Organizations

- Specific organization such as Universities, public services will provide information and technical advises necessary for the operation of OCC.

(6) Responsibility of Communities

- Communities groups in the municipalities have responsibility to create self-directed prevention groups.

- Communities groups shall appoint representatives to work with the OCC in emergency and organize the people and execute the prevention measures and evacuation.

- Communities shall observe water level and rainfall amount voluntarily both in normal time and emergency time and report those information to OCC.

5. 6. 2. Evacuation

(1) Organization

- the OCC of ADMC shall dispatch recommendations of evacuation

(2) Evacuation

1) timing of evacuation

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The time when evacuation recommendation or order are dispatched

- debris flow is expected or is occurring

- steep slope failure or landslide is expected or is occurring

- evacuation is required from public places such as schools, hospitals, factories and other places.

2) criteria of recommendation

- the OCC shall dispatch recommendation of evacuation to the residents when a disaster happens or a disaster is about to happen and it is necessary to evacuate the residents in order to safeguard the lives and bodies of the residents.

3) contents of recommendation

The OCC shall transmit the following information so that it will quicken the evacuation actions and will secure the safety of residents.

- name of the area where recommendation of evacuation dispatched

4) Measures to transmit recommendation

The OCC shall transmit recommendation through a method discussed between the OCC and the municipality civil protection.

5. 6. 3. Rescue Operation and Medical Services

(1) Rescue Operation

1) Organizations

- municipality shall do rescue operation.

- ADMC shall coordinate the rescue operation of municipalities.

- Municipalities shall coordinate the rescue operation activities of different agencies.

2) Responsibility of ADMC

- overall coordination

- direction of help to other municipalities

- request of help from the military

3) responsibility of Police

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- rescue of injured people or trapped people

- search of missing people

- traffic control

4) responsibility of municipalities

- execute rescue operation according to their rescue plan

- to request the ADMC for help in rescue operation stating the following items; - reason for help - number of personnel and equipments, materials - location - duration - others

5) Fire Fighters’ Department

- fire fighters’ department will do rescue operations

- the Mayor of the ADMC shall request help from neighbor fire fighters’ department

6) community organization, private companies and residents

- community organizations, private companies and residents shall do rescue operation themselves and at the same time cooperate with governmental organizations for rescue operation

(2) Pre-hospital Activities

1) Organizations

The related organizations are;

- ADMC

- Municipalities

- Police

- Fire fighters

- Medical services

2) responsibility of each organization

a) discovery of injured people and report to the related agencies

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The organization or person which got information on number of injured people has to report to the police, the fire fighters or hospitals, with the information on date, damage situation and number of injured or dead people.

b) rescue operation

The police or the fire fighters shall dispatch rescue operation team to the site when they received the information with necessary equipments.

c) transportation of injured people from the field to hospitals The organization in charge of transport of injured people shall dispatch ambulances to the site with the required personnel to transport the injured people. When the number of ambulances is not enough, the following measures shall be taken;

- utilization of other type of vehicles - request of help from neighbor municipalities

- When the organizations in charge of transport of injured people judge that transport by helicopters is required, they shall make request to the Mayor of the ADMC to coordinate for dispatching helicopters from related organizations.

(3) Medical Services

1) Planning Agency ADMC, Secretaria de Salud MSDS PAHO Red Cross Public hospitals Private clinics Ambulatories PC Met PC in each municipality Hydrocapital Private companies

2) Implementing Agency ADMC, Secretaria de Salud MSDS

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Public hospitals Private clinics Ambulatories PC Met PC in each municipality

5. 7 Transportation

5. 7. 1. Transportation Security

(1) Information Collection on Road Damage and Road Traffic

after the earthquake, road administrators and police departments shall make efforts to collect information on road damage and road traffic

(2) traffic control

Based on the information collected, the road administrators and the police department shall take necessary measures such as traffic control or closure of roads.

5. 7. 2. Emergency Transportation

(1) Organizations

- all disaster prevention organization shall make emergency transportation

- the Mayor of ADMC shall obtain tracks from the track association based on the agreement.

(2) Basic policy of emergency transport

All measures have to be implemented based on the following principle and exclusive use of emergency route by official users should be considered;

- security of human lives

- prevention of disaster enlargement

- smooth operation of emergency response

(3) Items to be transported

1) 1st stage

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rescue operation personnel and equipments, medical service personnel and equipments

personnel and equipments for fire fighting

disaster management personnel of governments, personnel and equipments for first response to secure communication, electricity, gas and water services

seriously injured people to outside of the area

personnel and equipments required for recovery of transportation and traffic control

2) 2nd stage

continuation of -1)

food, water and other goods for lives of the people

injured people and refugees to outside of the area

3) 3rd stage

continuation of -2)

personnel and goods for recovery from disaster

daily goods

(4) monitoring of emergency transportation

The Mayor of the ADMC shall make efforts to collect information on emergency transportation rout to determine the function to define the use of the emergency transportation.

5. 8 Accommodation

5. 8. 1. Items Included in the Plan

The items to be included in the plan are as follows;

- set up of refugee camps

- set up of vacant houses

- designation of special area where the building code is not applied for the purpose of emergency recovery action

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- designation of prohibition area where no houses are constructed in order to avoid resettlement of people to the original risky place

- provision of construction materials

5. 8. 2. Organizations

The mayors of municipalities shall construct and maintain the emergency false houses for refugees. In case of the scale of the disaster is very large and it is difficult for mayors of municipalities to implement the work, the Mayor of the ADMC shall make efforts to do the job.

5. 8. 3. Beneficiaries

- residents whose houses are totally destroyed or washed away

- residents who do not have houses to live in

- residents who can not afford to acquire accommodation by themselves

5. 8. 4. Number of Temporary Houses

The number of temporary houses shall be within 30% of the total number of houses completely destroyed.

5. 8. 5. Methodology

- the mayor of the municipalities shall prepared places where enough space is provided to accommodate the temporary houses taking into account the damage estimation of 1967 earthquake simulation prepared by the Mayor of the ADMC.

- The mayors of the municipalities shall select proper places away from any risk

- The Mayor of the ADMC shall make agreement with construction association on the provision of emergency temporary houses and shall help the mayors of the municipalities to construct emergency temporary houses.

- the municipality mayors can request help from the Mayor of the ADMC to construct temporary houses showing the following information

- number of houses destroyed

- number of temporary houses to be constructed

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- number of contractors to be contracted

- person in charge

- other information

- the Mayor of the ADMC can request neighbor states or central government for help to construct temporary houses when it is required.

- the structure of the temporary houses shall be designed considering the convenience of the residents such as elder people, handicapped people.

5. 8. 6. Provision of Vacant Public Apartments

(1) Houses to be Used

All public apartments or houses in the area or in the neighbor area.

(2) Organization in Charge

Municipality mayors shall the provision of vacant houses for temporary use for refugees.

5. 8. 7. Repairing of Damaged Houses

- the municipality mayors can help people whose houses were partially destroyed and they can not repair them by themselves in order to repair the essential part of the houses such as bedroom, kitchen or bathrooms.

- the municipality mayors can request help from the ADMC Mayors in order to acquire required number of contractors and equipments showing the following information

- number of half damaged houses

- number of houses to be repaired

- items and numbers of equipments and materials

- number of contractors

5. 8. 8. Removal of Debris

- municipality mayors shall remove debris deposited in the houses in the area

- the municipality mayors can request help from the Mayor of the ADMC

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5. 8. 9. Consultancy Service for House Recovery

The mayors of municipalities and the Mayor of the ADMC shall open consultancy service in their office in order to promote recovery of houses of the citizens

5. 9 Provision of Necessary Goods

5. 9. 1. Food

- the mayors of municipalities shall be in charge of food provision in emergency cases

- the Mayor of the ADMC shall be in charge of food provision when the disaster covers wide area and it is requested by the municipality mayors

- the Mayor of the ADMC can request for help in food provision to neighbor states governors or to relevant ministries of the central government

- the disaster prevention organizations shall provide their personnel with foods required for their activities

- the beneficiaries of the program are,

- victims in the refugee camps

- people whose houses were destroyed and who can not cook at home

- hospitals and hotels

- people who are in rescue operation, disaster prevention and rehabilitation operation

- items of food

- the Mayor of the ADMC shall make agreement with commercial food suppliers for the provision of food to be supplied in emergency situation in order to cope with a wide area disasters

- the transportation of food shall be done through emergency transportation roads

- distribution of foods from the ADMC to the municipalities shall be decided by the Mayor of the ADMC

- distribution of foods from the municipalities to the people shall be decided by the mayors of the municipalities

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5. 9. 2. Water

(1) Organization

- Municipality mayors shall provide water for use of drinking and other purposes

- The Mayor of the ADMC shall help the municipality mayors when it is requested by the municipality mayors

(2) beneficiaries

People who can not access to water for their use

(3) municipality mayors shall together with

5. 9. 3. Goods

(1) Organization

- the mayors of the municipalities shall provide the victims of the disaster with necessary goods

- the Mayor of the ADMC shall conciliate the provision of goods when it is recognized necessary to it is requested by the municipality mayors

- the citizens are requested to store daily goods for at least three days use

(2) Beneficiaries

- the people whose houses were damaged

- the people who lost minimum requirement for life such as clothes or beds

- the people who lost their daily goods and have difficulty of life

(3) Items to be provided

- daily goods

- materials for temporary repairing such as cement, plastic sheets, tents, steel and etc.

- blanket, portable bed, etc.

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(4) Delivery

- the municipality mayors shall request help for provision of such goods to the Mayor of the ADMC, with the following information

- reason why request is made

- required items and quantity

- place of delivery and personnel in charge

- municipal office and personnel in charge

- necessity of delivery personnel

- other relevant information

- the Mayor of the ADMC, according to the agreement with suppliers of these goods, shall conciliate the provision of these goods to the municipality mayors.

5. 10 Hygiene, Anti-affection, Exclamation of Dead Bodies

5. 10. 1. Mental Care

(1) Installation of Mental Medical Services

- the Mayor of the ADMC and the mayors of the municipalities shall install mental medical service, when existing mental hospitals have not enough capacity.

(2) Installation of Consulting Service

- the Mayor of the ADMC shall install a consulting service on medical service for the people who need it.

5. 10. 2. Health Care

(1) Organization

- The mayors of the municipalities shall perform medical service for the victims of the disasters

- the Mayor of the ADMC shall help the mayors of the municipalities when it is requested by them or it is judged as necessary.

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(2) Temporary Medical Service Spot

- the mayors of the municipalities shall install temporary medical service spots when;

- existing hospitals are damaged and their function is terminated or curtailed and the they can not cope with the situation.

- the number of casualties is beyond the capacity of exiting hospitals

- it is necessary to do medical service in the area, as it takes time from the place of many casualties and the place of hospitals.

- the mayors of the municipalities shall have a plan for installation of temporary medical service spots.

5. 11 Debris Treatment

5. 11. 1. Building Debris

(1) Responsibility of municipality

- municipality mayors shall collect information on building debris in their municipalities

- municipality mayors shall prepare enough temporary stock pile spaces for debris

- municipality mayors shall remove building debris, which are hazardous or hamper traffic.

- municipality mayors shall estimate the total amount of debris and make appropriate plan

- municipality mayors shall request the help of the Mayor of the ADMC when the operation is beyond the capacity of one municipality

(2) Responsibility of ADMC

- the Mayor of the ADMC upon the request from the municipal mayors or according to his observation send personnel to observe the situation of each municipality

- the Mayor of the ADMC shall help the operation of the municipality mayors for the transportation rout to the last treatment site

- the Mayor of the ADMC shall coordinate the treatment operation of debris

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5. 11. 2. Garbage


- the mayors of municipalities shall collect information on the number of refugees of each refugee camp and make plan for treatment of garbage produced in each refugee camp.

- The mayors of the municipalities shall assess the damage of each garbage treatment plant and make plan for temporary treatment plan of garbage

- The mayors of the municipalities shall prepare temporary storage of garbage considering the amount of the garbage and the capacity of their facilities

- The mayors of the municipalities shall request the Mayor of the ADMC for the operation when their capacity is not enough to treat the garbage properly.


- the Mayor of the ADMC shall coordinate the request of help from a municipality and request neighbor municipalities to help the municipality which has difficulty in garbage treatment

5. 11. 3. Human Waste


- the mayor of municipalities shall collect information on the number of refugee of each refugee camp and make plan for installation of temporary toilets.

- The mayor of municipalities shall install temporary toilets at each refugee camp according to the plan above

- The mayor of municipalities shall try hygiene condition of each toilet by acquiring enough amount of antiseptic solution

- The mayor of municipalities shall request help to neighbor municipalities for human waste treatment when the capacity is not enough

- The mayor of municipalities shall request regional help to the Mayor of the ADMC for human waste treatment when the capacity of neighbor municipality is not enough

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- the Mayor of the ADMC shall request neighbor states for treatment of human wastes when the request is made by municipality mayors

5. 12 Reception of Foreign Aid

The International Cooperation Department of ADMC shall be responsible of the reception of foreign aid.

5. 13 Emergency Transport Operation

5. 13. 1. Metro

(1) Responsibility of the Mayor of the ADMC

- the Mayor of the ADMC shall make efforts to collect information on the damage on the METRO

- the Mayor of the ADMC shall disseminate information on METRO damage, recovery status and others

(2) Responsibility of the Head of the METRO

- the Head of the METRO shall control the operation of METOR according to the information on damage prediction or occurrence of damage on METRO stations or METRO lines

- the HEAD of the METRO shall derivate passengers to safe places when the METRO operation is stopped because of expectation of damage

- the Head of the METRO shall implement rescue operation of passengers according to their rescue operation manual

5. 14 Lifeline

5. 14. 1. Responsibility of the Mayor of the ADMC

- collection of information on damage on electricity system through the utility company, police, fire fighters’ department or protection civil

- dissemination of damage information to the people

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- selection of priority area for recovery and request to the utility company

- provision of required equipment or materials for recovery operation of the utility company according to the agreement.

5. 14. 2. Responsibility of the Utility Company

(1) Just after the disaster

1) reservation of personnel required

- assess the number of personnel available for emergency recovery operation of damaged part of their system

- mobilization of in-house personnel for emergency recovery operation based on their emergency operation manual

- mobilization of affiliate personnel for emergency recovery operation based on their emergency operation manual

2) assessment of damage

- assess the degree and locations of damage on the whole system

3) acquiring of necessary materials and equipments for recovery

- to assess the quantity of materials and equipments in stock

- to acquire required materials and equipments if necessary

- to study the transport rout after assessing the road conditions in the area

- to coordinate with the ADMC and the municipalities for acquiring materials and equipments

4) recovery operation

decision of the priority locations for recovery

- the first priority of recovery is refugee camps, medical facilities, government facilities and mass media facilities.

propaganda of information on recovery operation

- the information on recovery shall be properly disseminated to the disaster management organizations and the mass media

- the information on recovery shall be properly disseminated to the public.

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5) temporary termination for security reason

- by a security reason, the temporary termination of operation shall be planed when it is required or requested by the ADMC, the municipalities, polices or fire fighters>

6) cooperation with other electricity companies

- The utility company shall make efforts to recover the delivery of electricity for the area by cooperating with other electricity companies in the country based on the agreement.

5. 15 Security

5. 15. 1. Activities of the Police in Emergency

- assessment of damage

- rescue operation of victims

- identification of risky areas and identification of caution

- collection and dissemination of meteorological information

- direction, recommendation and derivation of evacuation of people in risky area

- search for missing people and autopsy

- traffic control in damaged area

- crime control and security control in the damaged area

- dissemination of regional security information

- help for rehabilitation operation

5. 16 Recovery of Infrastructures

5. 16. 1. Risky Slopes

- the mayors of the municipalities and the Mayor of the ADMC shall implement screening of risky slopes in the area and assess the possibility of slope failures

- the mayors of the municipalities and the Mayor of the ADMC shall implement required measures to avoid slope failure disasters

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- reinforcement of risky slopes

- installation of observation equipments for the slopes

- establishment of observation system

- the mayors of the municipalities shall dispatch warning and recommendation or direction of evacuation when they detect any symptom of slope failure in the area

5. 16. 2. Roads

- road administrators shall assess the damage on the roads of their administration

- the road administrators shall control the traffic when they detect any risk of utilization of a part of the roads

- the road administrators shall recover the function of the roads according to the degree of importance of each road

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CHAPTER 6. REHABILITATION/REDEVELOPMENT PLAN

6. 1 Recovery Measures

The central government, ADMC and the municipal governments shall implement immediate recovery measures after disasters.

6. 2 Reconstruction of Houses

The central government, ADMC and the municipal governments shall implement policies to promote reconstruction houses after disasters.

6. 3 Collection of Donations

The ADMC, the municipality governments, Red Cross and other related organizations shall form a committee, where they shall discuss the methodology how the donations are received, distributed and utilized for the rehabilitation/redevelopment purpose.

6. 4 Redevelopment Plan

6. 4. 1. Redevelopment Plan of Risky Area

(1) Identification of Disaster Area

The mayors of municipalities shall designate the disaster area based on the damaged cuased.

(2) Acquisition of Disaster Area

The mayors of municipalities shall compensate the land owners of the designated disaster area and acquire the land with the assistance of the ADMC and the central government.

(3) Redevelopment Plan of Risky Area

The mayors of the municipalities shall make plans for redevelopment of the designated disaster area.

The basic policy is to conserve the land in order to reduce risk of another disaster.

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(4) Legislation of Prohibition of Resettlement of People in the Same Risky Areas

The mayors of municipalities shall legislate to prohibit the people from resettle in the same risky areas after they evacuate from their original risky place hit by disasters.

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CHAPTER 7. PEOPLE’S PARTICIPATION FOR LESS VULNERABLE CARACAS

7. 1 Policy

It is absolutely necessary for the government and the citizens to coordinate in order to attain disaster prevention activities.

In this sense, strengthening of community activities for disaster prevention is one of the main items of disaster prevention plan.

This part of the plan should be implemented by both the government and the community.

7. 2 Organization

The organization in charge for strengthening of community activities for disaster prevention is the Civil Protection of national, regional and municipal level.

Especially, the Civil Protection of each municipality is the closest entity to the community and direct contact with the community should be done by the Civil Protection of each municipality.

7. 3 Strategy for the Government

7. 3. 1. Publication of Disaster Information

The government shall publicize information on disasters, which are useful for community disaster prevention, to the communities, including hazard maps, risk maps, and resources distribution maps.

7. 3. 2. Identification of Community Organization

The government shall identify the existing community organizations, which can be the core for community activities for disaster prevention. The government shall also identify the leader of each community from the view point of disaster prevention.

7. 3. 3. Assessment of the Strength of the Community

The government shall assess the strength of each community from the view point of disaster prevention activities in mitigation and preparation.

S1 - 66

7. 3. 4. Strengthening of Community Organization

The government shall take necessary measures to strengthening the community organization according to the result of the assessment.

7. 3. 5. Introduction of Disaster Prevention Activities

The government shall introduce disaster prevention activities to the community, such as “seismic reinforcement of buildings” or “early warning and evacuation for debris flow disaster prevention”, as a part of the coordination work between the government and the citizens.

7. 4 Strategy for the Community

7. 4. 1. Promotion of Disaster Prevention Activities

The communities shall make efforts to include disaster prevention activities as one component of the daily activities.

7. 4. 2. Collaboration with the Government

The communities shall make efforts to collaborate with the governmental agencies in order to promote disaster prevention activities by the communities.

S2

SOCIO – ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT

“ The prevention of disasters is part of your life"

Antonio Aguilar M.

i



FINAL REPORT

SUPPORTING REPORT

S2

SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITION

1.1 Administrative System ------------------------------------------------------------------S2 - 1 1.1.1 Metropolitan Caracas ---------------------------------------------------------S2 - 1 1.1.2 Municipal Administrative Boundary----------------------------------------S2 - 1

1.2 Population---------------------------------------------------------------------------------S2 - 1 1.2.1 Population Distribution -------------------------------------------------------S2 - 1 1.2.2 Population Density ------------------------------------------------------------S2 - 2 1.2.3 Population Vulnerable to Disaster (elderly and infant)-------------------S2 - 2 1.2.4 Share to the National Total ---------------------------------------------------S2 - 3

CHAPTER 2. ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES

2.1 National Economy -----------------------------------------------------------------------S2 - 8

2.2 Employment of Caracas -----------------------------------------------------------------S2 - 8

2.3 Informal Economy of Caracas----------------------------------------------------------S2 - 8

CHAPTER 3. URBAN GROWTH AND HOUSINGS

3.1 History of Urban Growth of Caracas --------------------------------------------------S2 - 10

3.2 Urban Growth and Barrio (informal settlement) -------------------------------------S2 - 12 3.2.1 Barrio Characteristics ---------------------------------------------------------S2 - 12 3.2.2 Barrio Area Expansion--------------------------------------------------------S2 - 13 3.2.3 Population of Barrio Area ----------------------------------------------------S2 - 14 3.2.4 Government Policies ----------------------------------------------------------S2 - 15

ii

3.3 Disaster Preventive Matters in Housing Development------------------------------S2 - 17

CHAPTER 4. URBAN PLANNING ASPECT

4.1 Urban Planning Laws and Regulations------------------------------------------------S2 - 24 4.1.1 Organic Law of Planning -----------------------------------------------------S2 - 24 4.1.2 Organic Law of Urban Order and Regulation of Organic Law of Urban Order --------------------------------------------------------------------S2 - 24 4.1.3 Special Law for the Caracas Metropolitan District Regime -------------S2 - 24 4.1.4 Metropolitan Ordinance on the Urban Guidelines of the Metoropolitan District of Caracas -------------------------------------------S2 - 25

4.2 Local Urban Development Plan --------------------------------------------------------S2 - 25

4.3 Urban Development Procedure---------------------------------------------------------S2 - 26 4.3.1 Situation of People’s Participation in Planning Process------------------S2 - 26 4.3.2 Zoning---------------------------------------------------------------------------S2 - 27

4.4 Security and Prevention of Risk and Emergency ------------------------------------S2 - 28

CHAPTER 5. DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF CARACAS

5.1 Development Plan of Caracas ----------------------------------------------------------S2 - 30

5.2 Existing Plans Related to Development and Risk------------------------------------S2 - 30 5.2.1 National Plan for Regional Development ----------------------------------S2 - 30 5.2.2 National Plan for Economic and Social Development--------------------S2 - 31 5.2.3 National Plan of Territorial Order -------------------------------------------S2 - 31 5.2.4 Plan of Classification and Regulation of Use of Protected Zones in

Metropolitan Caracas ---------------------------------------------------------S2 - 32 5.2.5 Plan of Classification and Regulation of Use of Priority and Critical Area of

Basin of Tuy River -----------------------------------------------------------S2 - 32

CHAPTER 6. LAND USE AND PUBLIC FACILITIES

6.1 Existing Land Use------------------------------------------------------------------------S2 - 34

6.2 Open Space -------------------------------------------------------------------------------S2 - 34 6.2.1 Parks-----------------------------------------------------------------------------S2 - 34 6.2.2 Open Space in Barrio Area---------------------------------------------------S2 - 34

6.3 Public Facilities --------------------------------------------------------------------------S2 - 35

iii

CHAPTER 7. AREA VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS

7.1 Physical Vulnerability Evaluation -----------------------------------------------------S2 - 42 7.1.1 General--------------------------------------------------------------------------S2 - 42 7.1.2 Vulnerability of Building Damage ------------------------------------------S2 - 43 7.1.3 Vulnerability of Evacuation Route Shortage-------------------------------S2 - 44 7.1.4 Vulnerability of Evacuation Space Shortage-------------------------------S2 - 45 7.1.5 Integrated Vulnerability of Urban Structure -------------------------------S2 - 46

7.2 Social Vulnerability----------------------------------------------------------------------S2 - 47 7.2.1 Indices of Social Vulnerability ----------------------------------------------S2 - 48 7.2.2 Social Vulnerability of Caracas----------------------------------------------S2 - 49

7.3 Integrated Social and Physical Vulnerabilities ---------------------------------------S2 - 49

CHAPTER 8. URBAN DEVELOPMENT FOR DISASTER PREVENTION

8.1 Issues in Disaster Prevention -----------------------------------------------------------S2 - 63

8.2 Objectives and Strategies to Improve Urban Structure------------------------------S2 - 63 8.2.1 Objectives ----------------------------------------------------------------------S2 - 63 8.2.2 Strategies -----------------------------------------------------------------------S2 - 64

8.3 Countermeasures -------------------------------------------------------------------------S2 - 64

8.4 Projects for Mitigation plan-------------------------------------------------------------S2 - 65 8.4.1 Land Use Zoning and Control of New Developments on Risky Areas-S2 - 65 8.4.2 Relocation People from Risky Area-----------------------------------------S2 - 66

8.5 Projects for Preparation Plan -----------------------------------------------------------S2 - 68 8.5.1 Creation of Open Space in Evacuation Difficult Area--------------------S2 - 68 8.5.2 Formulation of Evacuation Plan ---------------------------------------------S2 - 70 8.5.3 Emergency Transportation Network ----------------------------------------S2 - 75

8.6 Recommendations for Recovery and Reconstruction Plan -------------------------S2 - 77 8.6.1 Introduction --------------------------------------------------------------------S2 - 77 8.6.2 Temporary Housing Plan -----------------------------------------------------S2 - 78 8.6.3 Pre-disaster Post-disaster Reconstruction Plan ----------------------------S2 - 79

i

S2

LIST OF TABLES

Table S2-1.1 Administrative Units in Study Area - Name of the Parroquias in the Libertador, Sucre and Chacao Municipalities ------------------- S2-3 Table S2-1.2 Population of Caracas ----------------------------------------------------- S2-4 Table S2-1.3 Population Projection ----------------------------------------------------- S2-5 Table S2-2.1 Gross Domestic Product by Type of Economic Activity (2003) ----- S2-9 Table S2-2.2 Employment Status of Caracas, 1990 - 1997 --------------------------- S2-9 Table S2-2.3 Share of Caracas in National Employment ----------------------------- S2-9 Table S2-3.1 Housing Programs in Barrio --------------------------------------------- S2-19 Table S2-6.1 Land Use (1) ---------------------------------------------------------------- S2-36 Table S2-6.1 Land Use (2) ---------------------------------------------------------------- S2-37 Table S2-6.2 Development Status of Large Urban Parks ----------------------------- S2-38 Table S2-6.3 Distribution of Public Facilities ----------------------------------------- S2-39 Table S2-7.1 Calculation Method on Score and Vulnerability Rank --------------- S2-50 Table S2-7.2 Aggregated Number of Grids of Integrated Vulnerability by Parroquia ---------------------------------------------------------------- S2-51 Table S2-7.3 Integrated Area Characteristics ------------------------------------------ S2-51 Table S2-7.4 Zones of Social Vulnerability Survey ----------------------------------- S2-52 Table S2-7.5 Grouping of Social Vulnerability Indices ------------------------------ S2-52 Table S2-7.6 Social Vulnerability Ranking Method Selected Variables of Social Vulnerability ---------------------------------------------------- S2-53 Table S2-7.7 Scoring Steps --------------------------------------------------------------- S2-54 Table S2-7.8 Social Vulnerability Score of 15 Zones --------------------------------- S2-54 Table S2-7.9 Integrated Type of Physical and Social Vulnerabilities -------------- S2-55 Table S2-8.1 Characteristics of Disaster ------------------------------------------------ S2-83 Table S2-8.2 Disaster Type and Possible Countermeasures -------------------------- S2-83 Table S2-8.3 Estimated Number of Affected Population, Evacuation Place Needed, and Temporary Houses Needed ------------------------------------------ S2-83 Table S2-8.4 Amount of Debris of Buildings in 1967 Scenario Earthquake Case S2-84

i

S2

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure S2-1.1 Recent Administrative Boundary Change of Metropolitan District of Caracas ------------------------------------------------------------------- S2-6 Figure S2-1.2 Political Administrative Boundary of Caracas ------------------------- S2-7 Figure S2-3.1 Growth of Caracas (16th century to 17th century) --------------------- S2-20 Figure S2-3.2 Expansion of Caracas from 1772 to 1874 ------------------------------- S2-20 Figure S2-3.3 Built up and Barrio Areas in Caracas in 1940 -------------------------- S2-21 Figure S2-3.4 Built up and Barrio Areas in Caracas in 1966 -------------------------- S2-21 Figure S2-3.5 Expansion of Barrio Area in Caracas (1948 to 1977) ----------------- S2-22 Figure S2-3.6 Expansion of Barrio Area in Caracas (1983) --------------------------- S2-22 Figure S2-3.7 Barrio Area (2004) --------------------------------------------------------- S2-23 Figure S2-6.1 Open Space in the Stud Area --------------------------------------------- S2-40 Figure S2-6.2 Open Spaces and Function ------------------------------------------------ S2-41 Figure S2-7.1 Area Vulnerability Analysis ---------------------------------------------- S2-55 Figure S2-7.2 Vulnerability in Building Collapse--------------------------------------- S2-56 Figure S2-7.3 Vulnerability in Evacuation Route Shortage---------------------------- S2-57 Figure S2-7.4 Vulnerability in Evacuation Space Shortage---------------------------- S2-58 Figure S2-7.5 Integrated Physical Vulnerability ---------------------------------------- S2-59 Figure S2-7.6 Characteristics of Vulnerability ------------------------------------------ S2-60 Figure S2-7.7 Social Vulnerability Map-------------------------------------------------- S2-61 Figure S2-7.8 Map of Integrated Social and Physical Vulnerability------------------ S2-62 Figure S2-8.1 Road Width of Evacuation Route ---------------------------------------- S2-84 Figure S2-8.2 Example of Signboard for Emergency Places -------------------------- S2-84 Figure S2-8.3 Example of Evacuation Route Sign on Sidewalk ---------------------- S2-85 Figure S2-8.4 Signboard of Emergency Road in Tokyo, Japan ----------------------- S2-85 Figure S2-8.5 Example of Signboards on Emergency Road for Evacuees in Tokyo, Japan------------------------------------------------------------- S2-86 Figure S2-8.6 Emergency Road Network (Draft) --------------------------------------- S2-86 Figure S2-8.7 Module Used in Baruta as Police Station ------------------------------- S2-87 Figure S2-8.8 Creation of Open Space --------------------------------------------------- S2-88

S2 - 1

S-2 SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT

CHAPTER 1. SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITION

1. 1 Administrative System

1. 1. 1. Metropolitan Caracas

The Metropolitan District of Caracas is formed by five municipalities: Libertador, Chacao, Sucre,

Baruta, and El Hatillo. During 1960’s, this area was integrated by two districts, namely Sucre

District and Federal District, as shown in Figure S2-1.1. In year 1977, the Sucre District was divided

into four municipalities, namely Chacao, Sucre, El Hatillo, and Baruta. At the same time, the

Federal District was divided into the Libertador and Vargas. In year 2000, the National Assembly,

by mandate of the Constitution (Article No. 18), promulgated the “Special Law of the Caracas

Metropolitan District Regime” (Official Gazette No. 36.906 of March 08, 2000). This Law

establishes that the Metropolitan District of Caracas is formed by five municipalities as stated above

(Figure S2-1.1). It should be noted, however, that four of these municipalities, namely Chacao,

Sucre, El Hatillo and Baruta, are geographically located in the territory of the Miranda State even

after the establishment of the Metropolitan District of Caracas.

The Mayor of the Metropolitan District of Caracas is the highest civil, political and administrative

authority of the Metropolitan District, and is supported by Government Council as an organization of

superior consultation. The mayors of the five municipalities that form the Metropolitan District of

Caracas integrate this Council.

1. 1. 2. Municipal Administrative Boundary

The Administrative unit below the municipality level is called Parroquia. At present, Libertador

consists of 22 parroquias, Chacao forms only one parroquia, and Sucre has five parroquias, as shown

in Table S2-1.1 and Figure S2-1.1 and Figure S2-1.2.

1. 2 Population

1. 2. 1. Population Distribution

According to the “2001 Census”, Metropolitan District of Caracas has 3,090,447 people, accounting

for 12.4% of the national total of 24,915,902. The study area has 2,740,381 people, accounting for

88.7% of the Metropolitan total. Libertador has 2,061,094 (75.2% of the study area), Chacao 71,806

(2.6%), and Sucre 607,481 (22.2%).

S2 - 2

Population of Caracas increased by 1.28% per annum from 1990, according to the last 3 census, much

lower than a national average of 2.95% per annum. The study area recorded 1.25% per annum, with

Libertador 1.12%, Chacao 0.65%, and Sucre 1.77%. Among the parroquias, El Junquito of

Libertador shows highest growth rate at 3.56% per annum. In addition, Antimano (1.85%), La

Candelaria (1.41%), La Vega (1.89%), Macarao (1.61%), and San Agustin (1.59%) show higher rate

than the average of the Metropolitan District. Only San Bernardino of Libertador decreased its

population by 0.76% per annum.

Based on the INE’s demographic project up to 2010, the population of the study area is estimated as

shown in Table S2-1.3. Caracas will hold 3.21 million, 3.33 million, 3.47 million, and 3.61 million,

in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, respectively, while the Study Area will host 2.83 million, 2.92 million,

3.02 million, and 3.13 million persons, in 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, respectively.

1. 2. 2. Population Density

Gross population density of Caracas Metropolitan District in 2001, based on the 2001 census

population data and area calculated on the JICA study team GIS, is 39.8 persons/ha, with 48.2

persons/ha for the study area as a whole, 54.6 persons/ha for Libertador, 38.1 persons/ha for Cacao,

and 35.2 persons/ha for Sucre as shown in Table S2-1.2.

Population density by parroquia ranges from the lowest, 4.5 persons/ha of Macarao to the highest,

474.6 persons/ha of La Candelaria. Among the parroquias, those in downtown areas such as

Altagracia (236.7), La Candelaria (474.6), San Agustin (294.6), San Juan (324.8), Santa Teresa

(313.0), and 23 de Enero (391.2) show very high population density.

Population density of parroquias in Sucre ranges ranges from the lowest of 9.2 persons/ha for Fila de

Mariches up to the highest 87.3 persons/ha for Petare.

1. 2. 3. Population Vulnerable to Disaster (elderly and infant)

In a disaster prevention scheme, elderly people (65 years old or older) and infants (4 years or less) are

thought to be very vulnerable to disasters. According to the Census 2001, 15% of the total

population of Caracas and also the study area are in such vulnerable ages, with Libertador (14.9%),

Chacao (19.4%), and Sucre (15.0%). This means there exist one person per 7 to 5 persons are

thought to be vulnerable to disaster. At parroquia level, the rates range from Santa Teresa (13.0%)

to Chacao (19.4%). In addition to Cahacao, above the average are Coche (16.1%), El Recreo

(17.7%), and San Pedro (17.6%) in Libertador municipality, and Leoncio Martinez (17.5%) in Sucre

municipality. These are thought to be more vulnerable from demographic point of view.

S2 - 3

Population at age of 65 years or older are 6.7% in Caracas and 6.5% in the study area, respectively.

This means that there is one elderly person per 15 persons. The figures of the municipalities for

parroquias of the study area: Chacao 14.2 %, Libertador, 6.5%, and Sucre 5.7%. Among the

parroquias, with high percentage of elderly people are: El Recreo (11.5%), La Candelaria (10.1

percent), San Bernardino (12.5%), Santa Rosalia (12.9%), Chacao (14.2%), and Leoncio Martinez

(12.1%)1

As for infants ages of 4 or less, the average of Caracas and the study area are 8.3% and 8.5%

respectively. This ranges from El Cafetal (4.5%) and San Pedro (4.7%) in Libertador to Fila de

Mariche (14.0%) in Sucre. Antimano (11.4%) and Macarao (10.5%) in Libertador, and Caucaguita

(11.7%) and La Dolorita (11.5%) in Sucre have more than 10% rate of infants. These parroquias

have more vulnerability to disaster from demographic point of view.

1. 2. 4. Share to the National Total

Caracas Metropolitan District accounts for 12.4 % of a national total population of 24,915,902 in

2001, and 13.8 % in 1990 to a national total of 19,501,849. The share has decreased which might be

attributed to the saturated urban area and stagnated economic situation slowed down migration rural

areas to the national capital. The share is estimated, according to an INE projection, to decrease

further to 12.0 % in 2005 and 11.5% in 2010.

Table S2-1.1 Administrative Units in Study Area - Name of the Parroquias in the Libertador, Sucre and Chacao Municipalities

Municipality Parroquias Libertador Altagracia, Antimano, Caricuao, Catedral, Coche, El Junquito, El Paraíso, El

Recreo, El Valle, La Candelaria, La Pastora, La Vega, Macarao, San Agustín, San Bernardino, San José, San Juan, San Pedro, Santa Rosalia, Santa Teresa, Sucre, 23 De Enero

Chacao Chacao Sucre Caucagüita, Fila De Mariches, La Dolorita, Leoncio Martínez, Petare Source: INE

1 Out of the Study area, El Cafetal, Baruta shows the highest elder people ration in the Caracas, 14.3%

S2 - 4

Table S2-1.2 Population of Caracas

Municipal/Parroquia Population (1990)

Population(2001)

Pop. Growth p.y.

(1990-2001)

Area (Has)

Density (2001)

(person/ha)

% (0-4 yrs) (2001)

% (65 yrs or

over) (2001)

% (0-4 yrs and 65 yrs and over )

(2001) Metropolitan District 2,685,901 3,090,447 1.28% 77,713 39.8 8.3% 6.7% 15.0% Study Area 2,390,987 2,740,381 1.25% 56,874 48.2 8.5% 6.5% 15.0% Libertador 1,823,222 2,061,094 1.12% 37,733 54.6 8.4% 6.5% 14.9% Altagracia 42,724 44,101 0.29% 186 236.7 6.4% 7.5% 13.9% Antimano 117,179 143,343 1.85% 2,403 59.6 11.4% 3.4% 14.8% Caricuao 141,064 160,560 1.18% 2,355 68.2 8.8% 5.1% 13.9% Catedral 4,821 5,422 1.07% 79 68.7 7.5% 6.9% 14.4% Coche 49,834 57,276 1.27% 1,254 45.7 8.5% 7.6% 16.1% El Junquito 29,024 42,658 3.56% 5,567 7.7 9.5% 5.1% 14.6% El Paraiso 98,647 111,354 1.11% 1,038 107.3 7.0% 8.0% 15.0% El Recreo 96,574 107,935 1.02% 1,600 67.4 6.2% 11.5% 17.7% El Valle 133,900 150,970 1.10% 2,116 71.3 8.5% 4.8% 13.3% La Candelaria 51,432 60,019 1.41% 126 474.6 5.1% 10.1% 15.2% La Pastora 82,937 90,005 0.75% 735 122.3 7.6% 7.1% 14.7% La Vega 111,574 137,148 1.89% 1,195 114.8 9.5% 5.2% 14.7% Macarao 40,670 48,479 1.61% 10,862 4.5 10.5% 4.0% 14.5% San Agustin 38,527 45,840 1.59% 155 294.6 8.7% 5.4% 14.1% San Bernardino 29,348 26,973 -0.76% 758 35.6 6.3% 12.5% 18.8% San Jose 40,584 40,709 0.03% 308 131.8 6.9% 7.4% 14.3% San Juan 98,009 104,471 0.58% 321 324.8 7.7% 6.6% 14.3% San Pedro 55,967 63,274 1.12% 700 90.3 4.7% 12.9% 17.6% Santa Rosalia 103,975 117,993 1.16% 626 188.3 8.7% 6.7% 15.4% Santa Teresa 20,891 21,311 0.18% 68 313.0 5.8% 7.2% 13.0% Sucre 354,012 395,139 1.00% 5,051 78.2 9.6% 5.0% 14.6% 23 de Enero 81,529 86,114 0.50% 220 391.2 7.8% 7.7% 15.5% Chacao 66,897 71,806 0.65% 1,886 38.1 5.2% 14.2% 19.4% Sucre 500,868 607,481 1.77% 17,255 35.2 9.3% 5.7% 15.0% Caucaguita 55,939 6,009 9.3 11.7% 2.4% 14.1% Fila de Mariches 29,399 3,194 9.2 14.0% 2.4% 16.4% La Dolorita 66,625 1,320 50.4 11.5% 2.9% 14.4% Leoncio Martinez 61,618 2,217 27.8 5.4% 12.1% 17.5% Petare 393,900 4,514 87.3 8.8% 5.8% 14.6% Baruta 249,115 289,820 1.39% 8,273 35.0 6.9% 9.1% 16.0% El Cafetal 48,104 849 56.6 4.5% 14.3% 18.8% Minas de Baruta 45,503 450 101.0 7.4% 6.5% 13.9% Nuestra Señora del Rosario de Baruta 196,213 6,974 28.1 7.3% 8.5% 15.8% El Hatillo 45,799 60,246 2.52% 12,565 4.8 6.8% 7.4% 14.2%

Source: JICA Study Team based on INE, Census 2001 Note: Figures of area are calculated on the GIS of the JICA Team.

S2 - 5

Table S2-1.3 Population Projection Census Projection

Municipality and Parroquia 2001 2005 2010 2015 2020

Caracas Metropolitan 3,090,447 3,207,331 3,333,232 3,445,561 3,556,603

Study Area 2,740,381 2,829,974 2,924,545 3,009,881 3,095,160 Libertador 2,061,094 2,097,724 2,131,505 2,156,088 2,180,955 Chacao 71,806 77,404 83,831 90,247 96,618 Sucre 607,481 654,846 709,210 763,546 817,588 Baruta 289,820 312,415 338,352 364,269 390,032 El Hatillo 60,246 64,942 70,334 71,411 71,411

Source: Instituto Nacional de Estadística （INE）. Notes: Municipal structure corresponds to the Political-Territorial Law of the Entity, effective at the time of the census.

Projection is made based on the projection on June 30 by INE up to 2010 and modified with 2001 census data of Oct 20, 2001. The projection from 2011 to 2020 is extrapolated by JICA study team by employing population growth rate trend for 2000 to 2010 set by INE..

S2 - 6

Miranda State2 Chacao Municipality3 Baruta Municipality4 El Hatillo Municipality5 Sucre Municipality

1

5

4

3

2

Decade of 90s

Federal District1. Libertador Municipality

Year 2000 and Later

Metropolitan District of Caracas

Miranda StateMunicipality of Chacao,Baruta, El Hatillo and Sucre

Sucre

Libertador

District of Sucreof Miranda State

Department of Libertadorof Federal District

Decade of 60s

Capital District(LibertadorMunicipality)

Figure S2-1.1 Recent Administrative Boundary Change of Metropolitan District of Caracas

District of Sucre,

S2 - 7

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S2 - 8

CHAPTER 2. ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES

2. 1 National Economy

Venezuela’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product) recorded in 2003 was a total of 137,368,156 Million Bs

(85.8 Billion US$, at 1602 Bs per dollar), 30,142,451 Million Bs (29.4%) by Public sector and

3,587,468 Million Bs (70.6%) by Private sector as shown in Table S2-2.1. Services sector accounts

for 54.0% to the GDP, followed by petroleum (25.4%) and good production (18.5%). Government

is predominant in Petroleum activity because of PDVEZA. Petroleum activity of government alone

accounts for 22% of the national GDP. Private sector is dominant in non-petroleum activities as

good production and service, occupying around 90 % of these sectors.

Venezuelan GDP per capita is 4,080US$ in 2002, 4,780US$ in 2001, and 3,540US$ in 2000,

according to World Bank’s country profile data.

2. 2 Employment of Caracas

Reflecting the economic characteristics of the Metropolitan District, employment in service supply

(tertiary sector) of Caracas is dominant, accounting for 79% of the total employment of 1,444,360

persons in 1997, and increasing its share from 74% in 1990 to 78% in 1995, as shown in Table S2-2.2.

Employment in Caracas accounts for 17.9% of the total national employment rate; employment in

tertiary superior sector accounts for 48.9 % of the national total, as shown in Table S2-2.3. The

other important economic activity in the metropolitan area is transport and communication. Service

and manufacturing appear third in the study area.

Venezuela has been suffering from an economic depression in the last two decades that deteriorated

wages, creating general impoverishment of the national population since 1983. The unemployment

rate of Caracas was at 9.8% in 1997, smaller than the national average.

2. 3 Informal Economy of Caracas

Another feature about Caracas economy is its unregulated informal sector, which has grown very

quickly, from 35.5% in 1990 to 48.6% in 1997.2 In the metropolitan area informal sellers are found

here are there as a result of the high unemployment rate.

2 Strategic Plan of Metropolitan Caracas 2010 (Plan Estrategico Caracas Metropoli 2010), “Una Propuesta para la ciudad.”

S2 - 9

Table S2-2.1 Gross Domestic Product by Type of Economic Activity (2003) TYPE OF ECONOMIC ACTIVITY Consolidated Public Private

1. PETROLEUM ACTIVITY 33,729,919 30,142,451 3,587,468

2. NONPETROLEUM ACTIVITY 96,080,700 9,656,485 86,424,215

2.1 Goods Production 25,450,276 2,696,301 22,753,975

2.2 Service 74,144,887 7,260,343 66,884,544

3. Less: Imputed Banking Services 3,514,463 300,159 3,214,304

SUB-TOTAL 129,810,619 39,798,936 90,011,683

4. Plus: Import Duties, Luxury and Wholesale Tax

and Similar Taxes

7,557,537 595,390 6,962,147

TOTAL 137,368,156 40,394,326 96,973,830Source: Ministry of Finance, http://:ww.mf.gov.ve/

Table S2-2.2 Employment Status of Caracas, 1990 - 1997 Year Primary sector Secondary sector Tertiary sector Total

1990 17,230 346,110 1,075,312 1,438,652

1995 8,815 305,194 1,095,941 1,409,950

1997 13,814 286,527 1,144,019 1,444,360 Source: OCEI, Socio-economic Surveys, 2nd semester 1998 Population estimation Notes: Primary sector: Petroleum (crude oil) and natural gas, mining and agriculture activities Secondary sector: manufacture, electricity & water and construction activities Tertiary sector: financial, insurances real state and services to the enterprises, like financial assistance,

administrative services, marketing investigation, quality control, publicity, commercial, transport and communication, etc

Table S2-2.3 Share of Caracas in National Employment

Economic Activity Number % to National total % of National with high education

Agriculture 2,690 0.3 7.6 Mining, Oil 11,264 12.8 37.5 Manufacturing 192,365 18.6 27.9 Electricity, Gas, Water 10,727 17.6 48.9 Construction 83,435 13.0 19.3 Commerce 327,182 17.1 27.5 Transportation 119,278 23.1 38.1 Tertiary Superior* 230,853 48.9 55.5 Services 458,609 19.6 27.2 Not specified 8,097 43.0 53.5 Total 1,44,360 17.9 32.0 Source: OCEI, 1st semester, Socioeconomic Survey, 1997 Note: * tertiary superior includes Financial, Insurance, Real Estate, Service.

S2 - 10

CHAPTER 3. URBAN GROWTH AND HOUSINGS

3. 1 History of Urban Growth of Caracas

Caracas was founded on July 25, 1567 and became the third capital of Venezuela in 1577.3 The first

map of Santiago de Leon de Caracas drawn up in 1578 shows that the city had 25 blocks altogether

with the Plaza Mayor (Plaza Bolivar at present) as its center. According to the census taken by the

colonial government in 1580, the city had 2,000 inhabitants. The city grew southward to the Guaire

River and westward to between the Caroata and Catuche Rivers (Figure S2-3.1).

In June 1641, an earthquake hit the city, killing 300 to 500 people, damaging buildings and churches4.

At the end of the seventeenth century, the city had about 6,000 inhabitants. The city grew as result

of the introduction of coffee growing in the valley and expanded to hold 20,000 inhabitants in 1776.

In 1812, an earthquake, estimated at 7.1 on Richter scale, hit Caracas, and killed several thousand

people, destroyed two thirds of the buildings, and cracked the rest of the buildings. Caracas had

70,509 people living in 9,224 houses in 1883, according to the census taken then. Population grew

evidently with the construction of El Paraiso, urbanization or housing estate south of the Guaire River

which was developed replacing the old farms (haciendas) there (Figure S2-3.2).

Another earthquake occurred in 1900 and greatly damaged the city. The Plano de Caracas drawn by

Ricardo Razzetti in 1906 illustrates that the Caracas city had expanded south of the Guaire River,

facilitated by the construction of bridges. Around 1917, groups of people without land titles began

squatting in various parts of the city: Potrerito and El Saman near the center of the city, and La

Hoyada and La Lareda near La Vega towards the south of the city. These were the first barrios.

Then the oil boom came in the 1920s, which changed things rapidly. The development of the

petroleum industry caused the beginning of migrations from the countryside (rural areas) to the city,

which produced the urban expansion phenomena. Families with different socioeconomic conditions

decided to settle in different neighborhoods, like Catia (low income families), La Florida and El

Paraiso (high income families). In some way, Caracas started to have urban characteristics with

social and spatial segregation. In this context, in 1928, the Banco Obrero was created, which was the

first official attempt to tackle the problem of housing for low income communities.

In the decade of the 1930s, many agricultural lands were developed into urban use: areas such as El

Silencio, El Calvario, and Parque Los Caobos, La Florida, Mariperez, Las Delicias, Country Club, etc.

3 Coro was the first in 1527-46, El Tocuyo the second in 1547-1577. 4 Jiménez Díaz, Virginia, “Slope Failure in Caracas, Venezuela: the Influence of Squatter Settlement,” Thesis submitted for the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy at University of London, Aug. 1992, p 50.

S2 - 11

were developed, gradually replacing the haciendas (Figure S2-3.3). In 1941, the population of the

city was 269,030 inhabitants according to the census. Also, the Second World War expanded the oil

boom, and more urbanizations were constructed. This then attracted barrio growth, and ten years

later the area occupied by the barrios was five times bigger.5 (Figure S2-3.5)

During the 1950s, the city expanded even more. The city had grown from an urban area of 4,000 ha

in 1950 to 11,500 ha in 1966 (Figure S2-3.4). The central area of the city became a center of

employment; this was supported by the government with the construction of the Simon Bolivar Center

(a group of buildings for government offices). In this period, there appeared one metropolitan

commercial sector and two industrial areas, Los Ruices and La Yaguara. Also the Central University

of Venezuela and the Army gained a space in the city. The construction of the highway to the east

stimulated the growth of the city towards this direction, and increased land value in that part of the

city. Because of the increased land value, companies constructed buildings instead of houses. In

the west, buildings were constructed by the government in an effort to decrease the expansion of

barrios. In 1954, Banco Obrero built the so-called “super-bloques” to replace barrios.6

During the 1960s, the central area kept attracting residential activities with high densities and also

commercial activities. The most important stores, banks and government offices were located

between Bolivar Avenue and Urdaneta Avenue. The secondary shopping area was Sabana Grande,

very attractive for residences and businesses. Also other shopping center areas appeared in

Francisco de Miranda Avenue, Las Mercedes and Chuao. In this period, a new industrial area

located in La Trinidad in the southeast was developed. Many companies continued constructing

buildings, and in the southwest, apartments for middle income families displaced high income family

houses. Since all flat land had been occupied during this period, the invasion of barrios into hillsides

became more evident.7 In 1967, an earthquake struck the city with 234 victims.8

In the 1970s, the rapid growth of the high density development gave Caracas its metropolitan

character, but at the same time caused many serious problems. During this period, high class

neighborhoods were located in the east (Sucre Municipality). Middle class lived in houses or in

apartments located in the east and in the center of the city. Low income people besides those who

lived in barrios, lived in big but old houses (El Conde, La Pastora) or in old apartments located in the

central area (Libertador Municipality).

5 Perma, C., Evolucíon de la Geografía Urbana de Caracas, Ediciones de la Facultad de Humanidades y Educacíon, Universidad Central de Venezuela, Caracas, 1981, p.120. 6 2 de Diciembre later renamed 23 de Enero is an example, that housed 100,000 people in 38 buildings, each of 15 stories with a total of 150 flats (Brumlik, 1988). However, the provision of services was inadequate. 7 From the mid 1960s to the early 1980s, the time of the most intense building construction within the city, it often needed less than one week for 500 houses of barrio community to spring up on slopes behind a new apartment complex. (Colombia University, Disaster Resistant Caracas, Urban Planning Studio – spring 2001, P.26.) 8 FUNVISIS, Mapa Sísmico de Venezuela, 1530-1980, M.A.R.N.R and Observatorio Cajigal, Caracas, 1981.

S2 - 12

The improvement of living standards caused an increment in the number of private cars in traffic, due

to this problem the construction and widening of the road network was stimulated. In the decade of

the 1980s, only a small change was observed in the urban structure. The neighborhoods in the

southwest increased the density and some new residential areas appeared in that part of the city.

In the 1990s, the economic stagnation made it difficult to buy houses, not only for low income people,

but also for middle class people. Many families divided the inside of their houses or bought land

without basic utility services, thus decreasing their standard of living. Barrio areas are in process of

expansion, taking areas that belong to urban parks or as a process of its densification. Reduced

options to obtain places to live in Caracas, push people to peripheral areas outside the city, generating

a new demand for transportation. This is the case of Guarenas, Guatire, Valles del Tuy and El

Litoral Central. This situation generates a new demand of transport.

3. 2 Urban Growth and Barrio (informal settlement)9

3. 2. 1. Barrio Characteristics

Spontaneous urban growth, uncontrolled or self produced settlement in Venezuela is known as

“barrio.” They are formed by “ranchos” (houses), and constitute a dynamic form of occupation in

urban cities. Barrios are the product of migrations from the rural areas or from other cities of the

country, attracted by the prosperity and economic opportunities that the metropolis offered.

The arbitrary occupation of the urban space is located mainly at the northwest, southeast, west, and

east of the Caracas Valley, with some isolated barrios included in the urban area. The self produced

settlements have been increasing both in the river banks and in the hillside areas. In may cases,

invaders use scrap materials such as wood boards, metal sheet, cardboard etc, which are later are

substituted by bricks and concrete. This continuous process has caused that many barrios get

consolidated and their ranchos reach heights up to 6 floors with deficient structures and services.

The intense occupation of the hillsides has caused that grounds which had a latent unstable condition

to become zones of great geotechnical instability; This intervention with deforestation, cuts and fills,

overload of slopes, leakage of sewage water etc, have generated morpho-dynamic processes that have

caused important loses through time.

9 The definition of barrio is assumed as follows: Barrios are residential settlements of progressive development constructed during the invasion of terrain without a plan or project that complies with all the requirements to satisfy the needs of housing expansion produced in a regular and organized way in the city. The definition fits accurately to the “squatter settlements” used by HABITAT and recommended fro international use by the UN and also consistent with the meaning of the FUNDACOMUN’s First National Inventory of Barrio. (Source: Sectoral Plan fro the Incorporation of the barrio (zones) to the urban structure of the metropolitan area of Caracas and the Capital Region. – Plan sectoral de incorporacion a la estructura urban de las zonas de los barrios del area Metropolitana de Caracas y de la Region Capital.)

S2 - 13

Because the necessary corrective measures to mitigate the existing potential risks in the barrios

located in similar ground conditions have not been taken, it is inferred that the disasters will occur

again but in larger proportions due to the continuous growth and the inadequate intervention 10

Besides, the barrios differ from other formal residential neighborhoods because of the insufficiency in

the supply of essential services, as well education facilities, medical assistance, public transportation,

etc. Nevertheless some of these services have been adapted for barrio life. For example, transport

service is provided by terrain vehicles, which can reach abrupt roads, water service is made by

improvised pipes and connections, and other basic services that we take for granted, such as waste

disposal, are missing. In hillside barrios, people sometimes must walk up the equivalent of 30

floors.11 It is impossible for a fire engine, an ambulance or a funeral car to reach these places.

3. 2. 2. Barrio Area Expansion

As mentioned above, barrios emerged at earliest in 191712 and has kept invading into various parts of

Caracas. Figure S2-3.5 shows the extension of barrio areas. The 1941 census showed that Caracas

had a population of 269,030 people. The urban area measured 2,900 ha, up from 300 ha in 1900.

The oil boom triggered by the Second World War II expedited more urban development. At the

same time, barrios grew rapidly and covered more of the city area. In 1951, barrios occupied about

1,000 ha of land. By around 1966, most of the flat land of the city was developed and urbanized,

also the invasion of hillsides by barrios became more frequent. In 1971, barrios occupied 2,973 ha.

By 1985, 61% of total population of the Metropolitan Area of Caracas (including Vargas state) lived

in barrios (Figure 2-3.6).

Barrios covered an area of 3,657 ha in 1978, and 4,157 ha in 1985.13 In 1990, FUNDACOMUN

estimated, using the Second National Barrio Inventory (II Inventario Nacional de Barrios), that

77.58%14 of the total population lived in 406 barrios (354,097 houses) in the Metropolitan Area of

Caracas (including Vargas state)

10 11 This is often pointed out as in Baldo, Josefina, ed. La Cuestión de los Barrios, Monteávila Editores Latinoamericana Fundacion Polar, Universidad Central de Venezuela, 1994; and Baldo, Josefina and Villanueva, Federico, Un Plan para los Barrios de Caracas, Síntesis del “Plan sectorial de incorporacíon a la estructura urbana de las zonas de los barrios del area metropolitana de Caracas y de la región capital (sector Panamericana y Los Teques), 1998. 12 Jiménez Díaz (1992) 13 Briceño-León, R. El Futuro de las Ciudades Venezolanas, Cuadernos Lagoven, Caracas, 1986 14 This estimation figure shows much higher rate of barrio population based on the censuses of 1990 and 2001, because this included the

S2 - 14

In 2004, based on GIS measured area, barrio area of the Study Area covers 4,341 hectares. The

barrio areas account for around 20% of the urbanized area except for national park, protected area,

and undeveloped areas in the Study Area. (Figure S2-3.7)

3. 2. 3. Population of Barrio Area15

(1) Population

A large portion of the population of Caracas occupies barrio areas. Barrio population is

overwhelming in Libertador and Sucre municipalities. According to “Un Plan para los Barrios

de Caracas”,16 41% of population of Libertador lived in a barrio in the year 1990, with 748,359

out of 1,823,222 of the total municipality population, 54% of Sucre population (268,199 out of

500,868) lived in barrio while Chacao has only 6% of the total population in barrio, with 4,098

out of 66,897 persons.

According to the 2001 census, barrio population grew up to 1,403,41417 for the Study Area,

accounting for 51.2 % of the total population, 2,740,381, with Libertador 1,075,871 (52.2% of

the total municipal population), Chacao 4,511 (6.3 %), and Sucre 323,032 (53.2%). From

1990 to 2001, barrio population grew by 382,758 people from 1,020,656 in 1990l. About

27.3 % of the present barrio population has been grown during the decade.

Among Parroquias, in Libertador Municipality, Antimano (93.2%), La Pastora (67.8%), La

Vega (69.2%), Macarao (82,5%), and Sucre (76.6%), and in Sucre Municipality, Petare

(60.3%), Caucaguita (66.1%), and La Dolorita (67.1%) show more than 60% of barrio

population share.

(2) Population Density

Population density of barrio areas is very high, in average in the Study Area, 335 persons per

hectare. Libertador shows 360 persons per hectare, Chacao 1,047 persons / hectare and Sucre

268 persons /hectare. The density ranges from 191 persons / hectare in San Bernandino to

1,047 in Chacao. Of all the parroquias, Chacao show the highest densidy of 1,047

persons/hectare, followed by El Recreo with 1,022 persons /hectare, both show more than 1,000

persons / hectare.

15 Jiménez Díaz (1992)º 16 Josefina Baldo Ayala, and Federico Villanueva Brandt authored 17 Population of 2001 has been modified based on the 2001 census modification factor.

S2 - 15

3. 2. 4. Government Policies

The Venezuelan government has tried to integrated barrio areas with urban areas. And to this end,

many governmental institutions are promoting solutions for housing problems in barrio areas. Such

institutes include CONAVI, FUNDACOMUN, FUNVI, FUNDABARRIOS and FONDUR, and

municipalities as well as international organizations like the World Bank. However, because of the

magnitude of barrio areas, such efforts have not solved barrio issues effectively and have not

generated a land policy, a program of plots with services, or a programmed development with

technical assistance. Table S2-3.1 summarizes the housing related programs for barrio areas of

various entities.

(1) Integrated Approach to Barrio Physical Fitting

The integrated programs for fitting, improvement and extension of housing unit Barrios are

known as public policy in the country. Between 1999 and 2001, when the programs had their

greatest impulse, close to 100,000 million bolivars (which to date are still part of budget of

governors and mayors offices) was invested in the Sector Plan for Barrios in about ten cities (in

aerophotogrametric flights of about a hundred Barrios), in projects and in works in about 250

slum areas throughout the country. This investment benefited 257,323 families directly and

indirectly, which represents an impact on 10.7% of a population of 13 million people living in

Barrios.

The program was conceived as a structural response to the problem of infra-urbanization of

some 140,000 hectares of urban land in the national geography. It is one of the most coherent

and progressive urban policies in Latin America, together with Decree 1666, dated February 4th,

2002, Official Gazette No. 37,378, which begins the “Process of Regularization of Land

Ownership in Urban Poor Settlements”.

(2) Sector Plan for the Caracas Barrios

After many years of difficulty in the government housing sector, the policy of “fitting or

urbanizing the barrio” is based on a previous work: a general plan of strategic guidelines and

actions at the macro level, such as the one done in Caracas, entitled “Sector plan of

incorporation to the urban structure of the barrio areas of the Caracas Metropolitan area and the

Capital Region (Panamericana and Los Teques sectors)”. The plan is to provide infrastructure

to 4,600 ha occupied by barrios, which incorporates all the Metropolitan area and capital region

into the urban structure. It has developed a methodology to obtain the principal indicators

needed in barrios upgrading. For this, the Metropolitan area was divided in sectors and

barrios from the different municipalities were selected as pilot zones.

S2 - 16

The Plan defines two levels of intervention. The first one are the units of physical planning

(Spanish acronym UPF), made up of large sets of slum areas requiring physical fitting of

infrastructure and community services at an intermediate scale, such as works of corrective and

preventive engineering against geological risks, road connections, adduction aqueducts, main

sewage emissaries, etc.

The second level is comprised by the units of urban design (Spanish acronym UDU). They

are made up of one or more barrios with similar local problems requiring the physical fitting of

local infrastructure such as road networks, reconstruction of infrastructure services, community

services and construction of substitution housing for those inhabitants affected by geological

risks, or by those risks generated by the physical fitting itself.18

(3) World Bank Projects

The World Bank coordinated the Caracas Barrio – Upgrading Project “CAMEBA”. This Plan

aims to improve the quality of life for the inhabitants of a selected number of Barrios in

Caracas, developing and implementing a community-driven program whose experiences and

methodology could be replicated in different barrio areas in the country. The projects consists

of three main components:

- NIP (Neighborhood Improvement Plan): Urban facilities upgrading includes designing and

executing pedestrian and vehicular access, water distribution, sewerage and sanitation,

drainage, electricity, public lighting and community centers. Also includes the

construction of new buildings for resettlement.

- Institutional Development: It is in charge of financing the start-up and operational cost for

the project management unit. Public diffusion, monitoring and evaluation, and technical

assistance in several areas are included.

- The third component finances the development and operation of a market-based housing

improvement loan fund, which will provide to the barrio residents, credits for their housing

improvement. They will work through a partnership between banks and non-governmental

organizations.

18 Villanueva, F. and Baldó, J. , Un plan para los barrios de Caracas: Síntesis del “Plan Sectorial de Incorporación a la estructura urbana de las zonas de barrios del Area Metropolitana de Caracas y de la Región Capital (Sector Panamericana Y Los Teques)”、1998. Consejo Nacional de la Vivienda. Caracas: Impresión Minipres C.A. National Housing Research Award, 1995.

S2 - 17

(4) FUNVI DMC

This institution is a Housing Foundation adscript to the Metropolitan District Government in

charge of designing the housing policies according with the Housing Policies or Housing Laws

for the Metropolitan District of Caracas.

This program pursues the urbanization of the existing areas, developing construction projects,

infrastructure and urban facilities. They manage the monetary resources on behalf of

CONAVI for project executions and also asses the technical aspects of communities. It

considers the following areas:

- Physic Barrio improvement.

- Homeless attention.

- Improvement and enlargement of Barrios and popular housing.

- Urban progressive development

The institute conducted the actual projects of “Silsa – Morán”, “Aguachina” and “Los Erasos”.

3. 3 Disaster Preventive Matters in Housing Development

The law regulating housing and housing benefit policy subsystem (Ley Que Regula El Subsistema De

Vivienda Y Politica Habitacional, Official Gazette N° 37.066 dated October 30th 2000) describes

about the national housing policy.

In Article 12, there are housing programs the housing policy will develop as follows:

- Assistance to Homeless.

- Barrio Zone Physical Rehabilitation (Progressive improvement of environmental conditions,

urban planning and land uses regularization.)

- Improvement and extension of houses in Barrios or Popular neighborhoods.

- Popular Neighborhoods Rehabilitation. (Progressive improvement of environmental conditions,

urban planning and land uses regularization.)

- New Neighborhoods (urbanizacion) and Progressive Housing development

- Neighborhoods (urbanizacion) and Regular Housing.

S2 - 18

- Other projects defined by Housing National Council, according with the Law.

Operation Rules of the Decree with Rank and Force of Law which regulates The Subsystem of

Housing And Housing Policy (Normas De Operación Del Decreto Con Rango Y Fuerza De Ley Que

Regula El Subsistema De Vivienda Y Política Habitacional) describes details of each program.

Among the programs, the two programs including disaster preventive matters:

- Barrio Zone Physic Rehabilitation Program: Designed for the Barrio zone improvement, includes:

Local works of the pedestrian or vehicular transit in the Barrios, public spaces, urban equipment,

roads, stairs, and all kind of urban infrastructure, Housing substitution for risk prevention, Special

Studies and social work with the organized communities.

- Barrio Zone / Popular Neighborhood (urbanization) Housing Improvement and Extension

Program: It covers the improvement and the eventual extension for the rural, barrio or popular

housing. Also includes the reinforcement of the structural elements to prevent seismic risks for

the inhabitant who lives in barrio, rural or popular zones.

For the housing programs, “Public Sector Contribution Fund” can be used as subsidy, the amount of

which dependents upon family income grouping.

S2 - 19

Table S2-3.1 Housing Programs in Barrio

Scope Municipality / National

Organization Program’s Name Objective

Municipality Chacao

Social Administration Direction

Housing Improvement and Recovery

Housing Improvement and Recovery

FUNDASUCRE Mosquito program

Community self-management

Housing and Habitat Municipal institute

Ant program Housing Rehabilitation and Substitution in South Petare, San Blas Neighbourhood

Municipality Sucre

Work and Maintenance Direction,

Plans Firefly, Mole and Roadrunner

Illumination, sewers, road system.

FUNDACARACAS -

Housing and equipment Improvement and construction Municipality

Libertador Coordination of Attendance of Steps and Pursuit of Works

Work and Concessions Control Unit

Repairs, modifications, demolitions follow up.

Local

Municipality Baruta

Infrastructure Direction -- Housing

Improvement

FUNVI Office is changing director and personnel

-Housing improvement of houses in barrios and popular urbanizations -Rehabilitation of popular urbanizations -New urbanizations and progressive development of houses.

Metropolitan Caracas Metropolitan District

Popular Housing Foundation

Improvement of neighbourhood housing Program

Housing Rehabilitation

INCE Construction Program Training

Revival Plan Housing Improvement FUNDABARRIOS implementation Management and Ministry of Defence

Wasp Plan Housing Construction National Country

CONAVI CAMEBA Urban Public Services Improvement and housing repair

Source: Interviews and telephone contacts with each organization.

Note: INCE (Instituto Nacional de Capacitación Educativa)

.

S2 - 20

Source: Jimenes (1992), originally from Perma (1981)

Figure S2-3.1 Growth of Caracas (16th century to 17th century)


Figure S2-3.2 Expansion of Caracas from 1772 to 1874

S2 - 21


Figure S2-3.3 Built up and Barrio Areas in Caracas in 1940


Figure S2-3.4 Built up and Barrio Areas in Caracas in 1966

S2 - 22


Figure S2-3.5 Expansion of Barrio Area in Caracas (1948 to 1977)

Source: Jimenes (1992), originally from Negron (1981), and Caracas 2000 (OMPU,1981)

Figure S2-3.6 Expansion of Barrio Area in Caracas (1983)

S2 - 23

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S2 - 24

CHAPTER 4. URBAN PLANNING ASPECT

4. 1 Urban Planning Laws and Regulations

4. 1. 1. Organic Law of Planning

The Organic Law of Planning (Ley Orgánica de Planificación, 6 Nov. 2001, Decree No. 1528)

stipulates planning at the different of different territorial levels. National government should

formulate national plans including, the national plan of development, the national annual operative

plan, national plan of regional development, national plans of sector development, national plan of

institutional development (Art. 17, and 29). And each one of the entities and organizations of public

administration elaborate their respective operation plans (Art. 50). State and municipality

governments formulate their four-year development plan in accordance with the plans of higher

territorial levels (Art. 52 to 55).

4. 1. 2. Organic Law of Urban Order and Regulation of Organic Law of Urban Order

The main objective of the Organic Law of Urban Order (Gazette No. 33.868, Dec. 16, 1987) is to

order the urban development in the whole country to assure the harmonic growth of the towns. It

includes all the actions and regulations towards the planning, the conservation and the development.

Also, the urban development will consider the environmental resources and the quality life of the

urban centers. The main urban authorities are the National Government and the Municipalities.

Each of them has their own responsibilities and they must act coordinated to reach the Law objectives.

Article 47 of the Regulation of the Organic Law of Urban Order (Gazette No. 34.678, March 19,

1991)19, stipulates their responsibilities. The law stipulates about Local Urban Development Plan,

Special Plan of municipalities. Further, Article 70 stipulated about Progressive Urban Development

that offers the housing solutions for the low-income people. Community participation is also

stipulated in the Regulation.

4. 1. 3. Special Law for the Caracas Metropolitan District Regime

Special Law for the Caracas Metropolitan District Regime (Official Gazette No. 36.906), stipulates

the following urban planning aspects: According to the Law (article No. 178 of the Constitution/

Municipal Regime Law), the Competencies of the Metropolitan Districts includes the following urban

development related matters:

19 Regulation of Organic Law of Urban Order (Reglamento de la ley organica de ordenacion urbanistica,) Official gazette No. 34.678, 19 March, 1991.

S2 - 25

- The Caracas Metropolitan aqueduct, sewer and drainage system.

- The distribution and selling of gas and electricity.

- The urban planning and ordination. The matters related with the environment, architectonic,

civil and housing. The elaboration and approval of Local Urban Development Plans.

- The Urban road systems, the circulation and transit ordination for the Metropolitan area.

- The public transport services. (Urban and inter-urban)

- The Civil Protection and Security services, the firefighter and emergency services.

- The Metropolitan institutions for public credit.

- The treatment and disposition of the garbage.

- The management and care of the public spaces and parks in the metropolitan area.

And the law also stipulates that the metropolitan actions will be formulated with the citizen

participation, reflecting the opinion of citizens and initiatives for the definition of policies, plans and

projects and the control or evaluation of the results.

4. 1. 4. Metropolitan Ordinance on the Urban Guidelines of the Metoropolitan District of

Caracas

The Metropolitan Government of Caracas, in compliance with the Special Law that created the DMC,

has competences for the urban ordering and planning in its territory, and also the responsibility of

creating alt the required instruments to accomplished the goals envisaged in the law, in this sense in

the year 2003 the Metropolitan Legislature (Cabildo Metropolitano) approved the Metropolitan

Ordinance about Urban Guidelines of the Metropolitan District of Caracas (Ordenanza Metropolitana

sobre Lineamientos Urbanos del Distrito Metropolitano de Caracas) published in the Official Gazette

of the Metropolitan District of Caracas No. 0016 Ordinary of the 16/09/2003.

4. 2 Local Urban Development Plan

Urban Planning Law stipulates in Article 34 that Local Urban Development Plans for each

municipality shall be elaborated according to the guidelines established in the Urban Ordering Plan.

The plan shall be authorized by the city council to be effective.

S2 - 26

Municipalities shall describe in the plan the following items that are strongly related to disaster

prevention aspects:

- Identification of the un-controlled urban development, indicating their characteristics to

incorporate it in the urban structure;

- Establishment of the progressive areas20;

- Detailed regularization of the land uses and the zones delimitation;

- Implementation program by stages, indicating the priority actions, expenses and financing

resources; and

- Identification of the private lands that will be affected by the plan execution, indicating terms for

the expropriation, and the availability of the resources for the realization of the services.

In order to improve a particular area of a city, Special Plan further can be made. Special plan can

include partial and total eradication of the un-controlled settlement, which are located in zones

thought geologically risky.21

4. 3 Urban Development Procedure

The procedure before the development of new buildings and urbanizations are stated in Articles 62 to

68 of the Regulation of Organic Law of Urban Order. A new development plan shall consult with

Municipality engineering office for approval. Development plans must comply with the rule of the

urban facilities.

Urban facilities norm (Normas para equipamiento urbano) stipulates, according to the urbanization

levels, about the minimum required area of facilities of recreation, education, social-culture, public

administration, infrastructure and economy, in a development of urbanization.

The norm of the urban facilities are regulated not by municipalities, but MINFRA (Art. 125, Urban

Planning Law).

4. 3. 1. Situation of People’s Participation in Planning Process

In this disaster prevention study, community-based disaster management will be taken into account.

The state of people’s participation in planning process is examined. People’s participation recently

20 Progressive urban development is to offer housings solutions for low income population, 21 Described in Articles 49 and 50 of Ur ban Order Organic Law, Official Gazette Nº 33.868, Dec. 16, 1987

S2 - 27

started to be practiced in the planning process by the local governments inviting public comments to

projects and ordinances in question.22 People made comments on government-made plans, and their

idea are reflected in the plans through this process.

When it is required to make a reconstruction plan of damaged areas after earthquake or sediment

disasters, such popular participation in the planning process should be used to reflect the interests of

all involved.

4. 3. 2. Zoning

(1) Current status of Zoning Ordinance in the study area

There are a total of 153 Ordinances in the DMC, of which 53 are about Zoning. This without

taking into account decrees, resolutions, agreements and other legal instruments.23

There have been partial reforms to the Zoning Ordinance of Sucre District.

Libertador has a zoning ordinance formulated in 1985. Sucre has its zoning ordinance, which

first was formulated in 1968 and amended in 1998 with a small amendment in the central

commercial area.

Chacao has its own zoning plan, which was formulated originally in 1956, and modified in

1998. The zoning was sanctioned when Chacao was part of Sucre District. The PDUL of

Chacao has not been sanctioned thus the Sucre ordinance is still in force in the respective cases.

Also, the ordinance of the extinct Sucre District is still in force and covers some sectors of

Baruta, Chacao and El Hatillo municipalities.

(2) Change of Zoning

Urban Planning Law and Regulations. (Municipal Gazette N° 33.868, dated December16,

1987) stipulates, in Article 46, that:

Zoning changes will not be allowed, either proposed isolated or singularly. All zoning changes

should be integral or should be part of a sectoral plan. However, zoning changes can be done

after 10 years of the original zoning approval and if the changes are necessary and justified, the

22 Chacao also holds a community meeting to have the mutual understanding of what people think and want to improve in the municipality. 23 Diagnose and Collection of the Normative Instruments of Urban Control and Zoning Ordinances existing in the 5 municipalities of the DMC, Secretariat of Urban Planning and Environmental Management, 2001)

S2 - 28

office in charge of the urban planning, could recommend a zoning change, and must include the

respective studies, neighbor consultation or any other information.

The Article also describes about the requirement for the Municipal Council’s authorization of

the change of the zoning as follows:

- When the public services as: road systems, sewer, aqueducts, electricity or water facilities or

educational, sportive or recreational services are covered.

- When the municipality has the sufficient economic resources to improve the existing

services, adapting it to the new requirements.

- When the proprietary of the re-zoning areas, deposits in the municipal treasury, the

improvement expenses.

4. 4 Security and Prevention of Risk and Emergency

Metropolitan Ordinance on the Urban Guidelines of the Metropolitan District of Caracas (Official

Gatet of the Metropolitan District of Caracas, 16 Sep. 2003, No. 0016) stipulates Security and

Prevention of Risk and Emergencies in the Chater III. Among them, Artcle 77 stipulates on disaster

prevention, describing that the urban plans will contains disposition that permits:

- Relocating the existing barrios, and prohibiting new settlements, in the areas of protections of

basins, water paths, slopes greater than sixty percent (60%), dense vegetation and geologically

unstable lands.

If the disaster prevention action indicated in this article is realized in urban plan, barrio houses on

risky areas are to be relocated to safer places and new developments on risky areas will not happen

and potential risk from the natural disaster are to be lessened in the future.

4.5 Brief Outline of Urban Planning and Disaster Prevention

In the course of disaster prevention planning, urban planning aspect shall be included. As shown in

Figures 2-4.1 and 2-4.2, disaster preventive urban planning is recognized as common area of disaster

prevention planning and urban planning.

The following items are to be planned in accordance with urban planning point of view.

- Important disaster management function of open space and public facilities

S2 - 29

It is recognized that urban facilities such as major roads and parks played important roles in evacuation and blockage of fire-spreading and urban facilities, based on the pas experience of Japan

- Security of evacuation route and space

Evacuation places are to be planned by using parks, plaza and other open facilities to protect evacuees.

Evacuation routes are to form a network of roads with sufficient width, say 15 m or so.

- Allocation of disaster prevention and management facilities

Plazas or pocket parks are to be used as disaster prevention space for a base of emergency response and relief activities, and temporary evacuation.

In accordance with the disaster prevention plan, disaster prevention centers (disaster management base, base for daily activities of disaster prevention, etc.), community disaster prevention centers, which would be used as evacuation facilities are to be planned for the whole city area.

Figure S2-4.3illustrates the concept of an evacuation catchment unit in Japan and Figure S2-4.4 the

concept of disaster preventive urban structure in Japan.

S2 - 30

CHAPTER 5. DEVELOPMENT PLAN OF CARACAS

5. 1 Development Plan of Caracas

As stated above, the strategic and economical development plans for the government management

periods are based in the Organic Law of Municipal Regime (Ley Orgánica de Régimen Municipal,

LOTRM) and the Organic Law of Planning (Ley Organica de Planificación) and, on the other hand

the territorial plans are based in the Organic Law of Urban Ordering (Ley Orgánica de Ordenación

Urbanística, LOOU) and they are about the spacial aspects and urban variables of development and

have a long term planning horizon.

Municipality should formulate its own Local Urban Development Plans (Planes de desarrollo Urbano

Local, PDUL) as indicated in the Organic Law of Urban Ordering (Ley Orgánica de Ordenación

Urbanística, LOOU) of the year 1987. The first PDUL began to be formulated in Libertador,

Chacao, Baruta and El Hatillo municipalities. Until this date they have not been sanctioned.

In the case of the Metropolitan District of Caracas, the following plans are applied: the municipal

development plans, the PDUL and the Metropolitan Urban Development Plan (Plan de Desarrollo

Urbano Metropolitano) which is being formulated by the Secretariat of Urban Planning and

Environmental Management (Secretaria de Planificación Urbana y Gestión Ambiental) of the

Metropolitan District of Caracas.

Although there is not any integrated development plan of the Metropolitan District of Caracas yet,

each municipality and the Metropolitan District of Caracas should formulate consistent plans through

inter-municipal coordination mechanisms among the relevant organizations at national, state,

metropolitan, and municipal levels.

5. 2 Existing Plans Related to Development and Risk

5. 2. 1. National Plan for Regional Development

The problem of Venezuelan cities is the excessive population, investment, collecting and employment

concentration in a few important cities of the country, and the weak socio-economic development of

frontier areas. This situation is observed by the anarchy of the urbanization process of Venezuela,

which tends to produce hyper concentration in Caracas and the other state capitals.

A National Plan for Regional Development (2001-2007) was formulated by the Ministry of Planning

and Development in 2001. This Plan presents important elements to consider in order to articulate

S2 - 31

sustainable development in economic, social, political, institutional, territorial and international levels

and to create the quality of life that Venezuelan people deserve. It contains objectives of social,

economic, political-institutional, territorial and international integration, based on a strategy of

decentralization, founded on participative democracy, transformation, productivity and equity, as well

as the search of sustainable and balanced development, which generates better income distribution by

better use of the regional potentials in Venezuela.

5. 2. 2. National Plan for Economic and Social Development

A National Plan for Economic and Social Development (2001-2007) was formulated by Ministry of

Planning and Development in 2001. The new development model for Venezuela in this plan stresses

the balance of forces and factors that intervene in the multidimensional development of the country.

At the same time the model promotes a sustainable and diversified capability of providing economic

benefits and well being for everyone.

The plan states that consensus solutions are to be sought as a base for the legitimacy of the country,

promoting a society that is both democratic and co-responsible. These actions of society are to be

manifested in the decentralization of decision making processes in order to spread the change

dynamics to the total extension of the territory. These notions are expressed in five basic areas:

Economic, Social, Political, Territorial, and International.

5. 2. 3. National Plan of Territorial Order

The National Plan of Territorial Order (Plan Nacional de Ordenación del Territorio, 1998), has as

objective to guide distribution of population, economic activities and physical infrastructure through

harmonizing approaches of economic growth, social development, environmental protection and

conservation, based on potentialities and restrictions of each geographical environment. The plan

aims at the balanced growth of the nation through decentralization and deconcentration, and support

to the territorial strategic urbanization process for economic efficiency, social justice, political

invigorating.

And as one of its eight special objectives, the plan includes the promotion of actions directed to

protect the population, economy and the environment before the occurrence of emergencies or

disasters caused by nature, technology, and society.

S2 - 32

5.2.4 Plan of Classification and Regulation of Use of Protected Zones in Metropolitan

Caracas

Plan of classification and regulation of use of Protected zone in Metropolitan Caracas (Plan de

ordenamiento y reglamento de use de la zona protecotra del Area Metropolitana de Caracas; Gazette

No. 35.133, 18 January 1993) classifies and governs the protection area of the Caracas.24 According

to this plan, eleven units of protected areas are delineated accompanied by the permitted uses

rationally determined based on physical-natural, biological, socioeconomic characteristics of the

areas.

The plan includes the programs of: 1) Environmental management program to finalize the

development of activities related to the environmental protection, management of the resources of the

area, the investigation, monitoring and scientific cooperation with concerned institutions, 2) Program

of public use in order to facilitate and motivate the citizens for a better use of the existent renewable

natural resources; 3) Program of existing infrastructure to control erosion and regulate hydrology and

maintain the existing infrastructure; and 4) Program of environmental administration to plan, direct,

execute, watch over and control the resources in the protected area.

The designated protected areas are expected to control degradation of the resources of the area and

thereby prevent damage caused by natural disasters by due implementation.

5.2.5. Plan of Classification and Regulation of Use of Priority and Critical Area of Basin of

Tuy River

Plan of Classification and Regulation of Use of Priority and Critical Area of Basin of Tuy River. (Plan

de ordenamiento y reglament de uso del area critica con prioridad de tratamient, euenca del Rio Tuy;

Gazette No. 4.548 Extraordinario, 26 March 1993).has formulated with the following objectives:

- To achieve the restoration and environmental recovery of the basin

- To order land use of agricultural, industrial, mining, residential and tourist - recreation

- To coordinate with competent organizations regulating the areas under the special administration

24 The area is jurisdictions created according to Ordinance Number 1.046 of the date 10 June 1972: namely, jurisdiction of

Parroquias Carayaca and Catia del Mar in Municio Vargas, Parroquia Sucre in Liberator municipality, and in part of

municipalities of Plaza, Paz Castillo, El Hatillo, Baruta, Crisóbal Rojas, Cecilio Acosta, Paracotos, Carrizal, Los Teques and

SDan Pedro in Miranda State.

S2 - 33

- To define and consolidate a system of sustainable development of the region

- To coordinate and strengthen the public institutions in environmental administration of the basin

- To promote the citizen participation in the environmental administration of the basin

In this plan, the area is classified into seven units comprising of the following five sub-basins and 4

basins: 1) Alto Tuy sub-basin, 2) Tuy Medio sub-basin, 3) Guaire river sub-basin, 4) Bojo Tuy

sub-basin, 5) Grande river sub-basin, 6) Capata-Curiepe river basins, and 7) Guapo – Cupira river

basins. With this plan implemented, especially the sub-basin of Guaire river, Caracas is expected to

be adequately prevent damage from natural disasters.

S2 - 34

CHAPTER 6. LAND USE AND PUBLIC FACILITIES

6. 1 Existing Land Use

Figure S2-6.1 and Table S2-6.1 show the existing land use in the Study Area. Because of

mountainous terrain of Caracas, some 69% of the study area is covered with national park (31.4%),

protected zone (11.5%), and undeveloped areas (26.5%). Barrio area occupies 7.5% of the total

study area. Open space like road, parks (urban parks, local parks), plaza and recreational areas

accounts for 9.0% of the total area, while the rate ranges from paroqquia to parroquia with almost zero

to 67%. In the land area except for national park, protected zone, and undeveloped areas, such open

space ratio will reach to 26.8%, including road (10.6%).

6. 2 Open Space

6. 2. 1. Parks

In disaster prevention plan, open space or other public facilities are important for temporary

evacuation or refugee accommodation. Open space like parks are used in many functions

immediately after the disaster event to reconstruction of the damaged urban areas. Figure S2-6.2

shows the functions of open spaces in the case of the 1995 Kobe earthquake according to the size of

parks chronologically.

As seen in the existing land use, large urban parks of in the Study Area is 3,873 ha, however, 3,234 ha

of which, or 83 %, are undeveloped as shown in the following table. Caracas has developed only

329 ha of parks, accounting for 1.2 m2 per person in 2001 (Table S2-6.2). Also, some areas of the

parks are not flat but slope, and some have water surfaces, which are not suitable for use of

evacuation purpose very much. And the parks are not evenly located in the study area, but large

parks are located in Sucre and Libertador. Development of such planned but undeveloped parks is

an urgent need not only from urban amenity point of view but from disaster management view point.

6. 2. 2. Open Space in Barrio Area

As described in Section of Barrio development, they have almost no open spaces. In general, barrio

area is connected to a major road with a feeder road (local secondary class). The roads sometimes

become narrower and reach dead-end as they go in the barrio area. And most cases, the feeder road

is one and many houses are connected with the feeder road with very narrow stairways and alleys (or

trails). Some area paved, some are not. Barrios seldom have open space like plaza or parks, but

sometimes have only small open sport field, paved or dirt.

S2 - 35

It is observed that the main roads of the barrios are occupied by many cars parking on them. The

effective surface area of the roads is reduced by those parked cars and this implies that such cars

parked will hinder the smooth evacuation and emergency response operation in emergency.

The scarce of open spaces and roads in barrio areas implies that in emergency situation barrio areas

are likely to be isolated and it is difficult for rescue teams to reach the scenes in emergency, which

requires them to establish their own emergency response system to rescue and protect themselves in

emergency situations.

6. 3 Public Facilities

Public facilities25 such as government buildings (central, state, metropolitan, municipality), fire

stations, police stations, educational facilities, and health facilities by parroquias in Caracas are shown

in Table S2-6.3. Most of the public facilities, or around 75 %, are located in Libertador.

Most of the government facilities have functions as command centers in event of emergency.

Besides the open space mentioned above, schools are thought to be used as evacuation facilities in

emergency. The GIS database of the JICA Study team has only locations of such facilities without

attribute date such as capacity or area, thereby capacity have not been analyzed.

25 Data have been prepared by Secretariat of Planning and Environment Management, AMDC.

S2 - 36

Tabl

e S2

-6.1

La

nd U

se (1

)

MUNI

CIPA

LITY

PARR

OQUI

ATO

TAL

URBA

NRE

SIDE

NTIA

LRE

S_CO

MCO

MMER

-CI

ALIN

DUST

RIAL

EDUC

ATIO

NCE

METE

RYGO

LFMI

LITA

RYUR

BAN

SERV

ICE

LIBER

TADO

R23

DE

ENER

O22

0.4

74.9

ALTA

GRAC

IA27

1.3

75.8

ANTI

MANO

2,40

0.2

89

.9

0.

6

38.7

CARI

CUAO

2,35

8.2

26

2.9

6.7

CA

TEDR

AL81

.4

45

.7

3.

0

COCH

E1,

266.

3

194.

5

1.

4

EL JU

NQUI

TO5,

595.

9

11.1

1.0

EL

PAR

AISO

1,03

3.3

43

2.8

0.9

0.

4

EL R

ECRE

O1,

604.

9

457.

3

24

.7

0.

0

18.5

11.0

EL V

ALLE

2,09

1.7

21

2.2

2.4

63

5.8

LA C

ANDE

LARI

A13

4.8

92.5

2.2

LA

PAS

TORA

720.

1

83

.0

LA

VEG

A1,

194.

3

139.

0

2.

8

MACA

RAO

10,8

65.5

62.6

SAN

AGUS

TIN

141.

8

51

.6

SA

N BE

RNAR

DINO

757.

4

11

8.6

1.5

SA

N JO

SE23

8.0

40.0

1.8

SA

N JU

AN32

2.7

142.

8

SA

N PE

DRO

668.

4

29

8.9

83.9

SANT

A RO

SALIA

628.

6

18

8.3

21.3

46.0

SANT

A TE

RESA

67.8

47.6

SUCR

E5,

040.

8

374.

8

Su

b To

tal

37,7

03.8

3,48

5.5

39

.1

6.

7

-

0.

6

83.9

21.3

18.5

637.

3

10

8.5

CHAC

AOCH

ACAO

1,88

5.4

54

7.6

1.1

4.

3

7.0

37

.7

22

.6

SU

CRE

CAUC

AGUI

TA6,

009.

0

FILA

DE

MARI

CHE

3,19

4.2

LA

DOL

ORIT

A1,

320.

8

20.4

LEON

CIO

MART

INEZ

2,21

7.5

45

4.5

3.4

0.

9

15.0

16.6

PETA

RE4,

514.

5

775.

7

16

.4

14

.7

6.

1

0.4

34

.8

20

.2

Su

b Tota

l17

,255

.8

1,

250.

7

19.8

14.7

7.0

15

.4

34

.8

-

-

-

36.8

Stud

y Are

a56

,845

.1

5,

283.

8

60.0

25.7

14.0

16.0

118.

7

21

.3

56

.2

63

7.3

167.

9

BA

RUTA

EL C

AFET

AL84

9.3

402.

0

1.

7

MINA

S DE

BAR

UTA

450.

5

21

3.5

NSTR

A SR

A DE

L ROS

ARIO

DE

BARU

TA7,

017.

5

1,45

0.9

0.

3

106.

5

41

.0

Su

b Tota

l8,

317.

3

2,06

6.4

-

1.9

-

-

10

6.5

-

41

.0

-

-

EL

HAT

ILLO

EL H

ATILL

O12

,565

.0

88

3.7

36.6

71.4

Cara

ca77

,727

.4

8,

233.

9

60.0

64.2

14.0

16.0

225.

2

21

.3

97

.2

63

7.3

239.

3

S2 - 37

Tabl

e S2

-6.1

La

nd U

se (2

)

Sour

ce: J

ICA

Stu

dy T

eam

bas

ed o

n G

IS o

f Lan

d U

se, o

f orig

inal

dat

a fr

om A

MD

C

MUN

ICIP

ALIT

YPA

RROQ

UIA

ROAD

AIRP

ORT

SPOR

TUR

BAN

PARK

LOCA

L PA

RKPL

AZA

RECR

EACI

ONAL

ARE

AUN

CLAS

SIFI

ED

URBA

NNA

TION

ALPA

RKPR

OTEC

TIVE

ZONE

UNDE

VELO

PED

ZONE

BARR

IOS

LIBER

TADO

R23

DE

ENER

O29

.1

3.0

2.2

30

.5

80.8

AL

TAGR

ACIA

25.4

1.

6

15.7

1.8

14

2.2

8.7

ANTI

MAN

O66

.6

0.5

35

0.4

0.

3

2.4

28

.5

67.0

22

5.4

997.

5

53

2.3

CA

RICU

AO10

2.8

1,4

07.8

0.

4

67.3

13

5.8

0.

4

278.

9

95

.1

CATE

DRAL

18.7

1.

7

5.6

1.4

4.

5

0.8

COCH

E43

.7

31.7

31

.6

0.6

1.

9

10.0

27

4.3

606.

3

70

.2

EL JU

NQUI

TO1.7

1,

613.

8

3,907

.2

61.0

EL

PAR

AISO

178.8

21.3

81

.4

3.9

1.

5

86.1

14

7.8

0.

0

18.9

59

.6

EL R

ECRE

O13

3.3

34

.0

5.0

5.

5

20.4

87

1.2

24.0

EL

VAL

LE12

7.8

9.5

0.

1

0.6

3.

6

196.7

640.

5

27

.8

234.8

LA C

ANDE

LARI

A31

.4

2.8

0.0

2.

3

2.1

1.4

LA

PAS

TORA

31.9

4.

5

18.3

45

4.0

128.5

LA V

EGA

68.3

4.

9

422.7

0.7

0.

7

10.8

61

.4

192.

1

29

0.9

MA

CARA

O29

.5

20.2

9.

5

106.6

7,06

4.5

2,

704.

1

631.

0

23

7.6

SA

N AG

USTI

N37

.5

3.7

4.2

2.

1

42.9

SA

N BE

RNAR

DINO

38.9

0.

1

11.0

57

5.1

12.2

SA

N JO

SE16

.6

0.2

8.

0

11.6

13

9.6

20.4

SA

N JU

AN52

.0

3.4

3.8

0.

9

5.3

11

4.5

SA

N PE

DRO

127.5

8.3

67

.8

7.6

64

.3

6.7

3.5

SANT

A RO

SALIA

79.6

14

7.1

1.

2

3.7

14

1.4

SA

NTA

TERE

SA15

.4

4.8

SU

CRE

34.1

1.

3

50.5

0.

2

4.5

62

.0

221.7

707.

0

47

3.4

2,234

.4

876.8

Sub

Tota

l1,2

90.7

-

76.1

2,6

41.0

15

.1

37.5

44

9.8

975.3

9,95

3.6

5,

931.

9

8,894

.2

3,037

.4

CHAC

AOCH

ACAO

179.4

73.5

0.

1

4.5

3.

3

12.9

98

7.1

4.3

SUCR

ECA

UCAG

UITA

0.3

3,34

6.5

2,5

14.6

14

7.5

FI

LA D

E M

ARIC

HE(0

.0)

584.

3

2,3

86.4

22

3.5

LA

DOL

ORIT

A2.3

0.0

1,1

09.7

18

8.3

LE

ONCI

O MA

RTIN

EZ12

4.7

48

.1

0.2

10

1.9

0.

1

0.5

15

.1

1,42

8.1

8.3

PE

TARE

248.8

0.0

14

.3

9.8

1.

4

198.

5

24

7.4

2,

116.

0

177.

5

63

2.5

Su

b Tot

al37

6.1

48

.1

0.2

11

6.2

9.

9

1.9

21

3.5

247.4

6,89

0.6

58

4.3

6,188

.2

1,200

.1

Stud

y Are

a1,8

46.2

12

1.6

76.4

2,7

57.2

29

.5

42.7

67

6.3

1,222

.7

17,83

1.3

6,51

6.2

15

,082

.4

4,2

41.8

BA

RUTA

EL C

AFET

AL13

6.8

3.

8

17.3

0.

3

207.

1

80

.3

MINA

S DE

BAR

UTA

54.8

23

.9

0.1

91

.4

66.9

NS

TRA

SRA

DEL R

OSAR

IO D

E BA

RUTA

216.8

2.3

71

.2

0.6

44

0.3

544.5

3,60

6.3

39

1.3

145.5

Sub T

otal

408.4

-

6.

1

-

11

2.3

0.9

73

8.8

691.7

-

3,

606.

3

391.

3

14

5.5

EL

HAT

ILLO

EL H

ATILL

O11

9.5

3.

5

171.9

0.3

0.

4

188.

9

56

4.1

6,

673.

0

3,851

.8

Cara

ca2,3

74.1

12

1.6

86.0

2,9

29.1

14

2.1

44.0

1,

603.

9

2,478

.6

17,83

1.3

16,7

95.4

19,3

25.5

4,387

.2

S2 - 38

Table S2-6.2 Development Status of Large Urban Parks

Municipality Park Planned area (ha) Developed area (ha) Sucre Rómulo Betoncourt (Parque del Este) 80 77 Los Chórros 5 5 La Aguada 3 1 Romulo Gallegos (Gallindo) 22 4 Embalse Los Marishes 33 25 Ma. Concepcion Palacio Blanco (Caiza) 27 17 Sub-total 170 129 Libertador Jlvito Villalba (Parque del Oeste) 46 14 Zoologigo Caricuao 597 36 Los Caobos 42 19 Zoologigo El Pinar 76 6 El Calvario 17 17 Aristides Rojas 10 5 Universal La Paz 231 0 Leonardo Ruis Pineda 999 0 Vincente Emilio Sojo 1,134 0 Jardin Botanico 60 60 Sub-total 3,212 157 Sub-Total 3,382 286 Baruta Cuevas del Indio 38 10 Vinicio Adams 143 33 Sub-total 181 43 Total 3,563 329

Source：Secretariat of Planning and Environmental Management, AMDC

S2 - 39

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S2 - 41

Aroundhouse Small Parks Local (neighbor-

hood) parks Large urban parks

Evacuation Immediateafter the event

Immediateafter

EmergencyEvacuation

Emergencyresponse(-72 hrs)

Recovery

Re-construction

Life-saving

Life-maintaining

Daily lifesecurity

Ordinary liferestoring

Re-constructionof city

Park size1,000m2 2,500m2 1 ha 2 ha 4 ha

Evacuationuse

Temporary housing

storage space

Relief &Recoveryactivities use

Day1

Day2

Day3

Week1

Month3

Month1

Month2

Week2

Week3

Year1

Time elapsed

Emergencyresponse Evacuation &

relief use

Function

Source: “Creation of a Safe City in the Future,” ed. Keito Kamino, Gakugei Shuppan, 1995, Kyoto

Figure S2-6.2 Open Spaces and Function

S2 - 42

CHAPTER 7. AREA VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS

In this chapter, the regional vulnerability of Caracas in relationship between risk and resource are

evaluated in physical and social points of view. The results of the evaluations will give an idea of

relative vulnerabilities in Caracas. For analysis of the physical vulnerability, earthquake disaster is

focused on.

7. 1 Physical Vulnerability Evaluation

7. 1. 1. General

(1) Purpose

Understanding correctly the urban vulnerability against disaster, particularly earthquake

together with urban structure is important to formulate appropriate countermeasures to lower

the level of vulnerability. In relation to this, area vulnerability evaluation aims to achieve the

following:

- An index for planning a city prepared against disaster, particularly earthquake,

- A reference for selecting the relative priority areas for formulation of countermeasures, and,

- A tool to understand the physical vulnerability of the areas and to raise awareness of people,

especially those living in vulnerable areas.

In this section, among all the factors of urban structure, physical vulnerability related to

building and evacuation capacity of the areas is highlighted.

(2) Methodology of analysis

1) Methodology and indices

This analysis is done based on the 1967 earthquake scenario. To analyze an area’s

vulnerability, two indices, building collapse risk, and evacuation difficulty, are used for

determining the existing risks of earthquake in the region. Lastly, an evaluation on the

integrated regional risk is also added to understand the foremost risk area.

The Indices for the evaluation are 1) vulnerability of building damage, 2) vulnerability of

evacuation route shortage, and 3) vulnerability of evacuation space shortage. A

conceptual flow is shown in Figure S2-7.1.

S2 - 43

The evaluation done here is based on relative comparisons. Therefore, in interpreting

the analysis results, an area with risk rank 5 is relatively high in risk within Caracas, and

the area with risk rank 1 is relatively low in risk, but it does not necessarily mean the area

is absolutely safe.

2) Data used for analysis

Data used for this evaluation come from the building damage estimate the JICA Study

team has conducted, and land use data obtained from AMDC planning secretariat.

3) Unit area of analysis

The analysis is done based on 500 m x 500 m grids based on which ground motion and

building damage were estimated. For area vulnerability analysis, the grids with

building and habitants are used. Such land as the Avila Mountain or other protected

areas or a tract of undeveloped areas on the fringe of the study area is omitted from the

analysis.

(3) Interpretation of ranks

Evaluation done here is the relative comparison of the vulnerability among grids.

Accordingly, in interpreting results, areas with higher vulnerability such as grids with

vulnerability rank 5, simply means that vulnerability in these areas are relatively higher than

that of grids with lower ranking. An area with lower vulnerability, for example vulnerability

rank1, only means that the vulnerability is low relatively, but is not necessarily absolutely safe.

7. 1. 2. Vulnerability of Building Damage

(1) Introduction

Vulnerability of building damage evaluates the vulnerability of building damages caused by

earthquake motion, by comparing the building damage probability among the areas relatively.

The results of this vulnerability of building damage can imply the areas for area improvement

projects, such as urban redevelopment or renewal in dense areas. It will also highlight the

areas where to implement or consider upgrades on the individual buildings, such as building

diagnosis or individual reinforcement.

S2 - 44

(2) Methodology

Rate of building heavily damaged is used for this evaluation. Rate of building damage was

calculated based on the 1967 earthquake scenario. Calculation method on score and risk rank

is shown in Table S2-7.1.

(3) Results

Figure S2-7.2 illustrates the accumulated relative vulnerability of building damage based on the

ground motion caused by the 1967 earthquake scenario.

It shows that vulnerable areas of building damage are concentrated on western part of the study

area, especially, part of parroquias of Sucre, Antimano, El Velle, and Coche, and some part

scattering in the paroqquias from El Recreo to San Juan around the down town area.

Barrio houses, especially 3 stories and more are vulnerable because of its structure, according

to the barrio building breaking test done by the Study Team. On the other hand, old built-up

areas like Catedral, La Candelaria, and Santa Teresa are showing vulnerability because of

concentration of damage of masonry/brick buildings.

Based on the 1967 scenario, such areas are judged as priority areas to plan of reinforcement of

buildings.

7. 1. 3. Vulnerability of Evacuation Route Shortage

(1) Introduction

Vulnerability of evacuation route shortage indicates the difficulty of an area for securing road

for evacuation and accessibility. If the total area of wide roads in the area is larger, it

interprets that there are more roads that can be used to safely evacuate, meaning that there are

higher chance of evacuation. In overall, it is meant to show the difficulty to escape from or

access to the affected area.

Result of this evacuation route shortage can be utilized for knowing the regions where need to

be considered for securing roads. Such area can be the target for road widening, new

construction of roads and building reinforcement for better evacuation.

S2 - 45

(2) Method

Debris of damaged buildings and objects fallen off from buildings will block roads and will

disturb people’ evacuation and emergency operation. Passable roads are dependent on their

width and amount of debris on them. From the experience of the 1995 Kobe earthquake in

Japan, roads of 8 meter wide or wider were able to be passed by car even though debris of

collapsed buildings covered part of road surface. Indices used for this analysis are 1) road

area of 8 meters or wider, and 2) absolute number of buildings heavily damaged. Road data

used for this analysis are collected from FONTUR and rather limited in coverage of roads.

Accordingly only those grids with road data are analyzed.

Calculation method on score and risk rank is shown in Table S2-7.1.

(3) Results

Figure S2-7.3 illustrates the relative vulnerability of evacuation route shortage. The grids of

less passable roads with high building damage are located western part of the study area,

mainly in Libertador. And some parts of Sucre are also show relative high vulnerability in

evacuation route.

In such areas, road widening or new road development is preferable to secure evacuation route

in case of emergency.

7. 1. 4. Vulnerability of Evacuation Space Shortage

(1) Introduction

To indicate the degree of availability of evacuation space, existing open space (urban parks,

local parks, and plaza) was assessed and ranked into 5 based on coverage of evacuation area.

Vulnerability of evacuation area shortage seeks to find the vulnerable areas with shortage of

parks or so, which will act as evacuation center in emergency response and rehabilitation.

Evacuation space shortage is correlated with the number of seriously damaged buildings. It is

assumed that more people from those areas will need to evacuate to the open spaces. Result of

this vulnerability of evacuation area shortage can be utilized to establish the area lacking in

evacuation areas, and introduce projects that focus on expanding the existing smaller open

spaces to be utilized as evacuation area, or provide information on the availability of evacuation

area for the community members.

S2 - 46

(2) Method

Indices used for this evaluation are: 1) gross influence area of urban parks, local parks and

plaza, and 2) number of buildings heavily damaged. For the analysis, percentage of the urban

and local parks and plaza, and coverage area of large parks of the grid is used and classified

into 5 categories. Urban and local park are thought suitable for evacuation purpose including

rescue operation base and commodity transportation base among open space. And large urban

park which are develop such as Universal La Paz, Leonardo Ruis Pineda, Vincente Emilio Sojo

are excluded, and Zoologigo El Pinar is also excluded in this analysis. Calculation method on

score and risk rank is shown in Table S2-7.1.

(3) Results

Figure S2-7.4 illustrates the relative vulnerability of evacuation space shortage. Parts of

Libertador, and Petare in Sucre municipality show relatively high vulnerability in evacuation

space shortage.

Based on the adopted scenario, these areas are high priority area to develop open spaces for

evacuation. In general, barrio areas have less open space for evacuation, and they all have to

be improved in this point. Of all them, these areas are priority areas for parks and open space

development for evacuation purpose.

7. 1. 5. Integrated Vulnerability of Urban Structure

(1) Integrated vulnerability

Integrated vulnerability is assessed on the sum of the estimated three vulnerability indices of

building damage, evacuation route shortage and evacuation space shortage. Three indices are

arithmetically added up, and reclassified into 5 ranks according to the total score of the ranks.

The sum of the estimated vulnerability indices in each mesh is classified into five ranks of 1 to

5.

This integrated evaluation gives an idea on which area of Caracas has the highest vulnerability

on the earthquake situations. It is also possible to utilize for administrative and planning

purposes, or for the community members to know their living environment. Highly

vulnerable areas are priority ones for being cautious to the earthquake impact.

S2 - 47

Figure S2-7.5 shows the integrated physical vulnerability. The relatively high vulnerability

areas are concentrated in Libertador. Such areas are in urgent need of a comprehensive

anti-disaster approach including building reinforcement, road development, and open space

creation.

Table S2-7.2 shows distribution of ranked grids by parroquias, showing relatively vulnerable

parroquias, which requires a

(2) Characteristics of vulnerability

Integrated vulnerability, which combined three variables of building damage, evacuation route

shortage, evacuation space shortage, would be appropriate to evaluate the relative vulnerability

of the Caracas, yet it is insufficient to indicate the specific problem for urban disaster

management and introduction of project and program to solve the problems.

In order to understand specific vulnerability, the Study Team reorganized each vulnerability

index into eight categories. A five-ranked evaluation has been carried out in the previous

section. In this section, those evaluation indices are used, but are re-categorized into “A” and

“B.” Risk levels 1 to 3 are re-grouped under “A” and risk levels 4 and 5 are under “B.”

Under this evaluation, there are three letters given, for ex., AAA. The first letter applies to

building, the second to evacuation route, and the third, evacuation space.

The evaluation of regional vulnerability is reorganized by district as shown in Table S2-7.3.

Characteristics of risk can be identified in this table.

The results of the vulnerability analysis shown in Figure S2-7.6. This characteristics give the

priority countermeasures to be planned in each area.

7. 2 Social Vulnerability

In this section, social vulnerability of Caracas is discussed. Based on the social survey the Study

Team conducted, social characteristics of Caracas are identified from disaster management point of

view.

Areas in Caracas are categorized into 15 zone based on its foundation year, major land use, and

income level (see Table S2-7.4 and for detail, see Supporting report S24 Social Study of this volume).

The Study Team selected representative or typical communities for each of the 15 categorized zones

in Caracas. To such communities, the social survey was conducted with a sample size of 4,800

families.

S2 - 48

This social vulnerability is derived from the results of the social survey.

In addition to physical vulnerability analyzed above, social vulnerability is also important to

understand the area vulnerability to prevent and prepare for disaster.

7. 2. 1. Indices of Social Vulnerability

To evaluate social vulnerability of Caracas, 22 indices which are surveyed in the social survey by the

JICA Study Team, as shown in Table S2-7.5.

The indices are classified into 3 point ranks according to the answers by the interviewees. As for

each index, rank 3 is the highest vulnerable, rank 2 is intermediate, and rank 1 is the least.

The selected indices are the following 22 indices:

- No. of Families / Housing

- Children, elders and handicapped presence

- Number of pets / Housing

- Interviewed education level

- Employment type

- Simultaneous potential loss of housing and employment

- Monthly Family Income

- Insurance

- Number of floors /

- Housing

- Number of exits / housing or building

- Open spaces or Parking lots

- Tenancy of the house

- Community Alert Systems

- Food, Medicines and Tools

- Concentration spaces of unforeseen population

- Emergency equipment existence

- Experience in disasters

- Appreciation of the potential damage

- Knowledge of the propensity causes of disasters in the community.

- Information received and frequency

- Past training received

- Willingness to move in case of high risk

S2 - 49

These indices are categorized into three vulnerable indices as:

- Vulnerability in Perception or the incidence of actions directed to prevent and mitigate risks

- Vulnerability in Response

- Vulnerability in Recovery

The 22 indices are grouped into the three vulnerable indices as shown in Table S2-7.5.

7. 2. 2. Social Vulnerability of Caracas

Table S2-7.7 illustrates social vulnerability in Caracas. The scores are calculated by summing up the

22 indices of each zone, based on the score of each index (following the scoring procure described in

Table 2-7.6). This shows that zone 14 or Mariches is the most vulnerable socially in the zonoes,

followed by La Vega zone. On the other hand, the Altamira – Palos Grandes tends to be the one that

least vulnerable.

Figure S2-7.7 is a map categorized into three ranks, based on the results of social vulnerability with

the zones that are rescored by three equal interval of the difference between the maximum (most

vulnerable) and the minimum (least vulnerable).

7. 3 Integrated Social and Physical Vulnerabilities

To examine comprehensive vulnerability of Caracas, the integrated physical vulnerability and social

vulnerability are overlayed. The overlay shows area characteristics of combination of physical

vulnerability and social vulnerability.

To overlay these maps, ranking of the physical vulnerability map are changed into three ranks. The

arithmetic average of building collapse, evacuation route shortage, and evacuation space shortage is

re-ranked according to the average. The average of 1 – 2.33 turns into rank 1; the average of 2.34 –

3.33 into 2; and the average of 3.34 – 5 into rank 3.

Figure S2-7.8 shows the results of combination of the integrated vulnerability. The map illustrates

that areas vulnerable in both physical and social are located in mainly Libertador and some part of

Sucre. They are mostly concentrated in barrio areas. The most of barrio areas are judged as

vulnerable both in physical and social

S2 - 50

Table S2-7.1 Calculation Method on Score and Vulnerability Rank Vulnerability

Type Index Description Calculation result Rank

Building Damage

Rate of Building Heavily Damaged (indicating direct risk from earthquake)

Ratio = number of buildings heavily damaged / total number of buildings

0 – 1% 1 – 2% 2 –4 % 4– 6% 6 % –

1 2 3 4 5

Number of Buildings Heavily Damaged: (indicating the potential number of people to evacuate)

Absolute number of building heavily damaged per unit area (per mesh)

0 – 5 5 - 25 25 – 50 50 - 75 75 -

1 2 3 4 5

Evacuation Route shortage (Arithmetic Average of the two indicators)

Total Area of Usable Road (indicating the potential roads space to be passed)

Total area of roads of 8 m wide or wider per grid (25 ha = 500m x 500)

800 m2 - 500 – 800 m2 200 – 500 m2 50 – 200 m2 0 – 50 m2

1 2 3 4 5

Number of Buildings Heavily Damaged: (indicating the potential number of people to evacuate)

Absolute number of heavily damaged buildings

0 – 5 5 - 25 25 – 50 50 - 75 75 -

1 2 3 4 5

Evacuation Space shortage (Arithmetic Average of the two indicators) Coverage of open

space and service area of urban and local space (indicating open space to be used as evacuation place)

Coverage ratio of influence area of open space (urban parks, local park, plaza) and their buffer zones = ((a) + (b)) / (c) Where; (a) = park and open space (urban park + local parks +

plaza) (b) buffer areas of urban parks and local parks Buffer area = b1 + b2 (b1) = 2km radius buffer from parks more than 2ha (b2) = 500m radius buffer from parks more than 1ha (c) = area of grid (25 ha)

> 200 % 150 – 200 % 100 – 150 % 50 – 100 % 0 < 50 %

1 2 3 4 5

Integrated physical vulnerability

Integrated vulnerability of the area

Arithmetic average of the three vulnerability indices: - Building Damage - Evacuation Route shortage - Evacuation Space shortage

1.00 - 1.67 1.68 – 2.33 2.34 – 3.00 3.01 – 3.67 3.68 – 5.00

1 2 3 4 5

Source: JICA Study Team

S2 - 51

Table S2-7.2 Aggregated Number of Grids of Integrated Vulnerability by Parroquia PARROQUIA 1 2 3 4 5 Total

ALTAGRACIA 10 3 2 15 ANTIMANO 6 51 27 9 93 CARICUAO 7 21 35 11 74 CATEDRAL 1 6 2 9 COCHE 8 14 21 7 50 EL JUNQUITO 1 91 36 2 130 EL PARAISO 4 23 21 12 4 64 EL RECREO 3 19 15 7 3 47 EL VALLE 9 6 14 13 4 46 LA CANDELARIA 1 11 2 14 LA PASTORA 1 7 7 7 22 LA VEGA 16 22 18 2 58 MACARAO 2 6 60 9 77 SAN AGUSTIN 1 1 5 4 2 13 SAN BERNARDINO 5 7 2 2 16 SAN JOSE 1 3 3 2 9 SAN JUAN 4 9 9 5 27 SAN PEDRO 7 20 9 4 1 41 SANTA ROSALIA 1 7 17 13 4 42 SANTA TERESA 2 5 1 8 SUCRE 5 9 32 38 36 120 23 DE ENERO 4 7 5 3 19 CHACAO 4 27 12 4 47 PETARE 27 55 38 13 133 CAUCAGUITA 18 75 9 102 LA DOLORITA 15 31 17 1 64 FILA DE MARICHE 18 76 94 LEONCIO MARTINEZ 9 26 11 46

Source: JICA Study Team Note: Only girds evaluated in the analysis are counted.

Table S2-7.3 Integrated Area Characteristics

Index Characteristics of vulnerability types Building collapse

Evacuation route

shortage

Evacuation space

shortage

AAA Relatively less vulnerable urban structure (buildings, evacuation route and space)

1,2,3 1,2,3 1,2,3

AAB High risk on building collapse 1,2,3 1,2,3 4, 5 ABA High risk on evacuation route 1,2,3 4, 5 1,2,3 BAA High risk on building collapse 1,2,3 4, 5 4, 5

ABB High risk on evacuation possibility and secondary disaster 4, 5 1,2,3 1,2,3

BAB High risk on building collapse and secondary disaster 4, 5 1,2,3 4, 5

BBA High risk on building and evacuation possibility 4, 5 4, 5 1,2,3

BBB High risk on all variables 4, 5 4, 5 4, 5 Source: JICA Study Team

S2 - 52

Table S2-7.4 Zones of Social Vulnerability Survey Areas (zone) Year (1) Predominant

land use Social Class

1. Altamira –Los Palos Grandes- La Castellana 50-60 Residential Middle–high 2. Campo Alegre– Country Club- San Bernardino-Los

Chorros – La Florida – Bello Campo – El Paraiso (houses) 40-50 Res. Middle–high

3. Traditional downtowns –Central Downtown – Prado de María – San Agustín – San José – Cementerio – Los Castaños – La Pastora

20-30 several

Res – commercial Middle

4. El Marqués – La California 60-70 Res Middle 5. El Recreo-Bello Monte – Los Caobos – Las Acacias – Los

Rosales – Valle Abajo – Av. Victoria – Las Delicias – Sabana Grande – La Campiña

40-50 Res Middle

6. El Rosal-Sebucán-La Carlota – La Floresta 40-50 Res Middle 7. La Urbina - Montalban 70-80 Res Middle 8. 23 de Enero-Simón Rodríguez 50´s Res Middle–low 9. Caricuao - Valle – Coche 60-70 Res Middle 10. Santa Monica – Colinas de Bello Monte – Vista Alegre – El Paraiso (buildings) 50-60 Res Middle

11. Chacao - La Candelaria 20-40 Res Middle BARRIOS 12. Chapellín – Sarría 13. La Vega 14. Mariches SUBURB 15. Macarao Source: JICA Study Team Note: Due to the grouping of areas, the year of construction doesn't exactly reflect the construction of the area. The "Suburb" was selected as representative for: Macarao, Las Adjuntas, El Junquito, Nueva Tacagua, (Libertador). Mariches, Turumo, Urbanization Miranda (Sucre).

Table S2-7.5 Grouping of Social Vulnerability Indices No Variable of Vulnerability Perception Response Recovery 1 No. of Families / Housing X 2 Children, elders and handicapped presence X 3 Number of pets / Housing X 4 Interviewed education level X 5 Employment type X 6 Simultaneous potential loss of housing and employment X 7 Monthly Family Income X 8 Insurance X 9 Number of floors / Housing X

10 Number of exits / housing or building X 11 Open spaces or Parking lots X 12 Tenancy of the house X 13 Community Alert Systems X 14 Food, Medicines and Tools X 15 Concentration spaces of unforeseen population X 16 Emergency equipment existence X 17 Experience in disasters X 18 Appreciation of the potential damage X

19 Knowledge of the propensity causes of disasters in the community. X

20 Information received and frequency X 21 Past training received X 22 Willingness to move in case of high risk X


S2 - 53

Table S2-7.6 Social Vulnerability Ranking Method Selected Variables of Social Vulnerability

No Variable of Vulnerability Criteria

1 No. of Families / Housing 3 or more = 3

2 = 2 1 = 1

2 Children, elders and handicapped presence

Handicapped and children under 14 years old = 3 Older than 64 years = 2 Adults between 15 y 63 years old = 1

3 Number of pets / Housing 2 or more = 3

1 = 2 0 = 1

4 Interviewed education level College = 1

High School = 2 Basic or none = 3

5 Employment type unemployed = 3

own, Informal or part time = 2 Permanent, Retired, Doesn’t require or other = 1

6 Simultaneous potential loss of housing and employment

House or Neighborhood = 3 In the City = 2 Out of the City = 1

7 Monthly Family Income from 0 a 500 thousand = 3

500 thousand to 1 million = 2 More than 1 million = 1

8 Insurance Without insurance = 3

Any other than Familiar and/or housing = 2 Familiar and/or housing = 1

9 Number of floors / Housing

4 floors or more = 3 between 2 and 3 floors = 2 1 floor = 1

10 Number of exits / housing or building

1 exit = 3 2 or 3 exits = 2 More than 3 exits = 1

11 Open spaces or Parking lots Without patios or parking lots = 3.

With Parking lots = 2. Patio with or without parking lots = 1.

12 Tenancy of the house Housing Other/ doesn’t know = 3

Owned = 2 Rented = 1

13 Community Alert Systems None = 3

Robbery or Looting = 2 Flood with or without others = 1

14 Food, Medicines and Tools Without: Restaurant, Grocery store, Clinic, Drugstore, Supermarket, Hardware Store = 3.

With at least one: Restaurant, Grocery store, Clinic, = 2. With at least one, Drugstore, Supermarket, Hardware Store = 1

15 Concentration spaces of unforeseen population

With: Pre-school and/or Elderly home = 3. With at least one: School, Hotel / Lodging, Temple = 2. Without: Pre-school, , elderly home, School, Hotel / Lodging and/or Temple = 1

16

Emergency equipment existence Without at least one = 3 With at least one of the following: First Aid, Radio Transmitter, Electric Plant and/or Extinguisher = 1. Any other evaluated = 2

17 Experience in disasters none = 3

Any other different from Earthquake or Flood = 2. Earthquake or Flood = 3

18 Appreciation of the potential damage

“yes” his community might be affected = 1 “No”= 3

19

Knowledge of the propensity causes of disasters in the community.

Answers with one or all of the following: Nature…; God and destiny and/or Idiosyncrasy of Venezuelans = 3 Answers with one or all of the following:: Localization of the community; Urban Development and/or Lack of Laws = 1 Any other combination = 2

20 Information received and frequency

None = 3. Information about Earthquakes and/or Flooding with a monthly, weekly or daily frequency = 1. Any other combination = 2

21 Past training received None = 3.

House evacuation training = 1. Any other combination = 2

22 Willingness to move in case of high risk

“yes” willingness to move if informed high risk = 1 “No”= 3


S2 - 54

Table S2-7.7 Scoring Steps In each zone, the zone average score was calculated for each index as follows:

1. Score each sample for each index following the score described in Table S2-7.6. 2. Calculate zonal average score for all the zones: Zonal average score = Sum of score of each interviewee / sample size (total number of interviewees) (a) 3. Extract the maximum zonal average score among the 15 zones (b) 4. Normalize each zonal score by dividing (a) by (b) above (c) 5. Repeat the procedure 1 to 4 for all the indices. 6. Calculate zonal total vulnerability score by summing up all the scores for the 22 indices of each

zone Source: JICA Study Team

Table S2-7.8 Social Vulnerability Score of 15 Zones Zone No. Total Score

1 13.05 2 13.32 3 14.07 4 13.48 5 14.07 6 13.45 7 13.35 8 13.77 9 13.76

10 13.52 11 13.73 12 14.16 13 14.78 14 15.13 15 14.23

Max 15.13 Min 13.05

Scale 1 13.05 - 13.75 2 13.75 - 14.44 3 14.44 - 15.13


S2 - 55

Table S2-7.9 Integrated Type of Physical and Social Vulnerabilities Evaluation

Index Physical Social Vulnerability level

11 1 1 Low in both physical and social 12 1 2 Low in physical and middle in social 13 1 3 Low in physical and high in social 21 2 1 Middle in physical and low in social 22 2 2 Middle in both physical and social 23 2 3 Middle in physical and high in social 31 3 1 High in physical and low in social 32 3 2 High in physical and middle in social 33 3 3 High in both physical and social


Vulnerability Building Collapse

Vulnerability of Evacuation Route

Shortage

Vulnerability of Evacuation space

Shortage - Number of building

heavily damaged

- Number of building seriously damaged

- Total area of road of 8 meter or wider

- Number of building

seriously damaged - Open space area

Integrated vulnerability

- Building collapse vulnerability

- Evacuation route shortage vulnerability

- Evacuation space shortage vulnerability

- Area Vulnerability Characteristics

Source: JICA Study team

Figure S2-7.1 Area Vulnerability Analysis

S2 - 56

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S2 - 63

CHAPTER 8. URBAN DEVELOPMENT FOR DISASTER PREVENTION

8. 1 Issues in Disaster Prevention

(1) Development issues

Based on the vulnerability analysis in the previous section and the section S4 sediment disaster,

it is found that Caracas is not strong enough against earthquakes and has the following

problems as follows:

- Existence of buildings structurally weak against earthquake

- Settlement in area vulnerable to debris flow and land slide and slope failure, particularly

barrios

- Insufficient evacuation spaces and routes and uneven distribution of large parks

The most vulnerable area is typically congested with weak (non-engineering) buildings and

lack of open spaces and roads, as some part of barrios.

(2) Options towards risky area

There are areas at risk of earthquake, debris flow, land slide and slope failure. People living in

such areas have options to live away from the risk or live with risk with some counter measures

to protect themselves. (Table S2-8.1)

Living away from the risk is the most preferable from disaster prevention point of view.

However, the identification and delineation of areas at risk is dependent on the type of disaster.

If relocation is not the option, living with some countermeasures on risky land is the option.

8. 2 Objectives and Strategies to Improve Urban Structure

8. 2. 1. Objectives

It is required to increase the resistance of urban structure against sediment and earthquake disasters.

The resistance of urban structure will be improved through increasing the resistance of vulnerable

areas, buildings, and response capacity of urban structure. To build urban structure more resistant to

disaster, the following objectives should be addressed:

- To increase resistance of vulnerable areas of Caracas against earthquake and sediment disasters

S2 - 64

- To increase resistance of buildings of Caracas against earthquake

- To increase capacity of urban structure for response effective and efficient response

And as estimated in the study, most of the buildings that would be damaged by earthquake, debris

flow, and land slide are houses in barrio areas. It is also as important as prevention and preparation

measures, to prepare how to recover and reconstruct the damage area to normalcy from the disaster.

- To prepare a quick recovery of damaged area

8. 2. 2. Strategies

To attain the objectives, the following strategies are to be formulated:

1) To increase resistance of vulnerable areas of Caracas against earthquake and sediment

disasters

- Keep people away from vulnerable areas

- Enhance open space in vulnerable areas

- Control development on risky areas

2) To increase resistance of buildings of Caracas against earthquake

- Promote earthquake resistant buildings

- Promote earthquake resistant public facilities

3) To increase capacity of urban structure for response effective and efficient response

- Designate emergency transportation routes

- Enhance evacuation system

4) To promote smooth recovery from the damage

- Prepare policy and plans for recovery and reconstruction

8. 3 Countermeasures

To fulfill the strategies above, countermeasures will be described by disaster management cycle. In

order to make the urban structure of Caracas safer, the following countermeasures are to be taken:

(1) Mitigation plan

- Land use zoning and control of new developments on risky areas

S2 - 65

- Relocation of people out from risky areas

(2) Preparation plan

- Evacuation plan

- Emergency transportation plan

- Open space development

(3) Recovery and Reconstruction plan

- Temporary housing construction

- Pre-disaster reconstruction plan

8. 4 Projects for Mitigation plan

8. 4. 1. Land Use Zoning and Control of New Developments on Risky Areas

(1) Objective

To prevent Caracas from becoming more vulnerable than the present time for the future

population

(2) Brief description of the project

To develop the urban structure resistant to disasters, local development plan shall be formulated

based on the hazard and risk information. The future population of the Study Area is

estimated 3.1 million in 2020. And without any countermeasures, 0.2 million of the

increasing population are highly likely to be new barrio dwellers who are thought to live on

rather risky areas.

The risky area of land slide, slope failure and debris flow, and seismic vulnerable area under the

1967 earthquake scenario are to be identified. (see hazard and risk maps)

As describe in 4.3.3 of this report, Metropolitan Ordinance on the Urban Guidelines of the

Metoropolitan District of Caracas (Official Gatet of the Metropolitan District of Caracas, 16

Sep. 2003, No. 0016) stipulates in Art. 77 that urban plans will permit the relocating of existing

barrios in the areas of protections of basins, water paths, slopes greater than sixty (60%), dense

vegetation and geologically unstable lands. Achievement of this project meets this article.

S2 - 66

1) Identify and designate risky areas

Based on the hazard and risk map, the risky areas will be identified.

2) Formulate local urban development plan for each Municipality based on the hazard and

risk map

Each municipality should make its local urban plan based on the identified risky areas.

And with new information on damage estimation and urban vulnerability analysis, all the

municipalities and AMDC shall revise and formulate the local development plans

periodically.

3) Control new development (invasion) of barrio in vertical and horizontal

Most of barrios are located in vulnerable areas, so the municipalities should prevent new

invasion of barrio from such risky area. The control shall be on both horizontal and

vertical expansion of barrio area. With barrio area spread widely on slope areas of

Caracas, expansion of barrio means that people will invade further risky area unsuitable

to live. In addition to this horizontal expansion of barrio area, vertical expansion is also

monitored and prohibited as much as possible because the higher the non-engineering

barrio houses become the more vulnerable they become. The control shall be done by

municipal engineers office with cooperation of police.

4) Spillover housing policy for potential barrio population

When controlling the potential barrio population, in order to absorb them, an overspill

housing development policy shall be accompanied. Otherwise, such overspill

population will start invading some risky area and settle on risky areas as barrio dweller.

It is a huge task to completely cover a population of some 400,000 until 2020. Almost

89,000 families (4.5 persons/family) shall be accommodated in housings like low cost or

social housings. It is imminent to prepare the Metropolitan urban plan to absorb these

people somewhere in Caracas or in satellite cities, which would be preferable with

appropriate employment opportunities.

8. 4. 2. Relocation People from Risky Area

(1) Objective

To protect people from debris flow disaster, relocate people from the risky area, especially

those living in quebrada river channels

S2 - 67


Living away from risk of disaster is the best way to prevent disaster-caused damage.

However, it is difficult to move all the people living in risky areas in Caracas. Among the

relocation of the houses in risky areas, in this project, houses in the river channel are covered.

Around 1,039 houses (around 7,000 persons, 1.57 families per building and 4.5 persons per

family) located in the river channel over 3% slope, which are highly risky in debris flow

damage under the 100-year return period of rain.

The constitution and the organic municipal law require, for relocation, the obligation of the

state to expropriate occupied lands. When there is an expropriation of private lands and

buildings the value of both is paid to the occupants by the state.

As describe in 4.3.3 of this supporting report, Metropolitan Ordinance on the Urban Guidelines

of the Metoropolitan District of Caracas (Official Gatet of the Metropolitan District of Caracas,

16 Sep. 2003, No. 0016) stipulates in Art. 77 that urban plans will permit the relocating of

existing barrios in the areas of protections of basins, water paths, slopes greater than sixty

(60%), dense vegetation and geologically unstable lands. Achievement of this project meets

this article.

1) Component of the project

- Specify the risk areas (in the riverbeds of the 20 rivers in the Study area)

- Identify new relocation sites for those affected

- Design new relocation sites

2) Planning process

- Establish a ad-hoc committee composed of urban planning, municipal engineering

and civil protection

- While relocation occurs within a municipal boundary, there is a need for a

metropolitan wide plan for relocation. The Alcaldía Metropolitana should appoint a

technical secretariat from an existing office to coordinate the inter-institutional

requirements of the overall plan

3) Consideration for new relocation site condition

New relocation sites should be located in areas where adequate public services can be

provided and are in job expansion areas of the metropolitan district.

S2 - 68

Based on the social survey at Los Lanos community conducted by the JICA Study Team,

the people would move out voluntarily if the relocation project meets the following

conditions:

- If the relocation will be within the same area or near the community.

- If they are allow to be fully aware of the risk when living in a high risk area for the

presence of the river.

- If it improves their quality of life. To change their houses for another more decent

that offers them bigger security, when being located in safer places, far from the river.

- If it improves the surrounding area where they live. To endow the area with suitable

and sufficient services, to create or to design amusement areas, of recreation, sport,

community spaces, educational areas, health services, among others.

- If they will own their house in case house owners, and be lease for tenants..

- If the community participates in the design of the relocation proposal

- They won't be relocated next to inhabitants of other barrios of different and unknown

origin, the neighbours are not willing to take the risk of the future coexistence with

these inhabitants. The design of the preliminary proposal and the actions to be taken

should be elaborated in permanent consultation with the community.

- If the community has control of the financial elements that intervene in the

investment, they are willing to become participants of the rational use and control of

materials for the construction of the houses.

4) Development control afterward

Municipality shall be required to keep all high risk areas as open space (or off-limit area),

with no new uses permitted.

8. 5 Projects for Preparation Plan

8. 5. 1. Creation of Open Space in Evacuation Difficult Area

(1) Objective

To enhance the area evacuation capacity both in open space and facilities, especially in the

areas lacking such capacity.

S2 - 69


In order to create open space in areas lacking open spaces for evacuation and rescue operation,

in barrio and some built-up urban areas, the densification will be promoted to create more open

space; and in barrio areas, comprehensive barrio area improvement should be planned. The

following action plans will be included and this will be consistent with “Evacuation Plan.”

And also, these components shall be planned in participatory manner with community people

concerned.

1) Area redevelopment in urban area lacking open space

In the urban area, older built-up area has less open space and narrower roads than newly

developed urbanization areas. Such areas are more vulnerable in evacuation when an

earth quake happens. The narrow roads are likely to be blocked in the event of

earthquake in the areas of high risk of building collapse, thereby evacuation is difficult.

To this end, area redevelopment is preferable to be planned by densification of residences

to widen roads and create open space like parks, plazas and green areas.

2) Barrio area

In the barrio areas, as often pointed out, barrio areas are highly likely to be isolated

The components include:

- Plaza-type open space creation at the center of community

- Public hall construction that can accommodate evacuees, and service as response base

- widening of roads, especially those connecting with major road, to secure the access

in the event of disaster

- Building retrofitting of barrio houses standing along with the roads, trails, or stairs in

the barrio communities so as to secure more accessibility for evacuation and rescue

operation in the event of disaster. This component shall be harmonized with

building reinforcement program.

(3) Priority Area

Based on the regional vulnerability analysis, Sucre, Antimano, La Vega, El Valle, San Juan, El

paraiso, Santa Rosalia, La Pastora, and San Bernandino in Libertador municipality, and some

part of Petare in Sucre municipality.

S2 - 70

(4) Improvement of the Area of less Evacuation space and routes

There are two possible alternatives for improvement of such evacuation difficult areas. Area

redevelopment and Phased redevelopment. Area redevelopment will conduct comprehensive

area development develop roads, parks, buildings, and other facilities as one project at a time.

On the other hand, the phased redevelopment needs more time and develop the necessary

facilities such as roads, parks, disaster prevention center, etc. step by step. (Figure S2-8.8)

8. 5. 2. Formulation of Evacuation Plan

(1) Objective

To formulate the evacuation plan for an efficient and effective evacuation after the disaster

event for saving as many people as possible


At present time, Evacuation plan for earthquake disasters of the disaster management related

organization such as fire-fighters, police, Civil Protection, municipalities are not established.

Based on the 1967 earthquake scenario, 10,020 houses will be heavily damaged. These

people have to be evacuated first to safe place and then sheltered. A total of around 76,400

people should be evacuated and sheltered. Libertador will have some 67,700, Chacao, 1,300

and Sucre 8,500 (Table S2-8.3). Those evacuees are concentrated in barrio areas which are

with very limited open space and thereby difficult to evacuate and access to rescue.

1) Evacuation Plan

Evacuation plan shall include the following items:

- Identification of area needing evacuation

- Estimated number of evacuees

- Evacuation place, facilities, and logistics of necessary things

- Evacuation routes

- Evacuation procedure

- Evacuation map preparation, distribution and public relations

- Evacuation drill (simulation exercise)

2) Commission on Evacuation Plans

S2 - 71

Evacuation planning is a task that addresses multiple organization participation because

there are many sectors involved (health, rescue, security, communications, water,

temporary shelter, food, transport, trauma and relocation).

A Commission on Evacuation Plans (CEP) needs to be established for this counter

measure. This commission shall have representatives from the following institutions:

- Office of Civil Protection and Administration of Disasters (PCAD) of the ADMC

who serves as the technical secretariat for the development of the plan and its

implementation strategies.

- Civil protection institutes from all the municipalities.

- Firefighters

- Major volunteer organizations

- Linked non governmental organizations (NGOs)

- Park agencies (INPARQUE, Municipalities)

- University Central of Venezuela

- Private Communications Companies

- Municipal agencies in charge of roads

- Police

- Barrio group representative

- Medical sector

3) Evacuation Drill

There should be drill (simulation exercises) of an evacuation conducted with citizens to

promote preparedness among the participating agencies. These simulations should be

done frequently with the medical sector and the education sector. Special attention shall

be given to the highest risk areas in the city, and how they will be evacuated.

Comprehensive Evacuation Drills

In order to enhance the capacity of the related agencies, community, and other related

institutions, periodical drills of disaster response is necessary. Through the drills,

coordination will be enhanced among the related agencies centered CP AMDC and

municipalities. And along with the drills, various disaster prevention plans, guidelines,

S2 - 72

and manuals are necessary to be improved through the result of the drills. For this

purpose, a various drill shall be designed to verify the procedures to response.

Table-top exercise of government agencies

Image training to response to disaster events is very important to the governmental

officers in charge of disaster situation. Table-top exercise shall be conducted in a

manner.

(3) Concept of evacuation system

It is vital that residents can evacuate to safe place through certain route when an earthquake

happens. Accordingly, evacuation system, a wide area evacuation place and evacuation roads,

should be provided, that is, it is necessary to specify and secure open space which is large

enough to accommodate residents and roads which is wide enough and linked with evacuation

place. The evacuation place and roads should be publicized to the public widely.

1) Regional Evacuation Place

It is large open space such as urban park, other park and other green area that protect

evacuees from any dangers when a large-scale disaster hit. Gross open space in the

regional evacuation place has to be bigger than 3 m2 per person (net area more than 2

m2/person in Tokyo)26. Appropriate coverage area of the regional evacuation place is

approximately 2 km-radius or less. And the park area is needed at least 5 ha.

2) Community Evacuation Place

It is a place for evacuating persons to form a group temporarily to evacuate to the

regional evacuation place. The place shall be such as local parks, sports field, school,

religious facility, etc. in which the safety of assembled persons can be secured. Gross

open space in the community evacuation place has to be bigger than 2 m2 per person (net

area more than 1 m2/person in Tokyo). Appropriate coverage area of community

evacuation place is approximately 500 meter-radius.

(4) Concept of Evacuation Route

It is a road that leads form the community evacuation place to the regional evacuation place.

It is designated in advance to enable residents living in an evacuating zone to evacuate quickly

26 In Caracas, parks are more rich in water surface, trees, and slope than Tokyo, to secure 2m2 per person of land, 4 m2 of gross land may be necessary.

S2 - 73

and safely to the regional evacuation place. Appropriate width of road as evacuation route is

more than 15 meters.

Width of evacuation route is determined by an actual measure used in Japan. Appropriate

width is more than 15 meters which is calculated from required space for rescue activities,

blocked space with roadside hazard and evacuee’s space (Figure S2-8.1).

- Required space for rescue activities stands for passable space for emergency vehicles: 4

meters

- Road block by hazards are collapsed objects and parked or/and left cars: 3~4 meters

1) Screening of Regional Evacuation Place

Candidates for evacuation place are to be selected from the area of those facilities that

meet the following criteria:

- Public owned flat land and facilities,,

- Major park, open space and sport ground that can be used for evacuation purpose in

emergency,

- Public facilities with seismic resistance,

- Facilities away from any natural hazardous area,

- Facilities away from any hazardous chemical facilities in and around the area, and

- Emergency potable water supply, toilet (tank), and emergency goods storage are

available

2) Installation of Facilities in the Regional Evacuation Place

Based on size of each regional evacuation place, it should keep appropriate facilities

and/or equipments in case of emergency, like helicopter port, toilets, telecommunication

system, water tank, food storage, and so on. Accordingly, relevant signboards should

be set up at the regional evacuation place. Figure S2-8.2 is an example of signboards at

regional evacuation places in Japan as one of example.

3) Evacuation Route

Evacuation route should be set up in the areas based on the selection criteria for safety

reasons:

- Select roads wider than 15 m,

S2 - 74

- Do not select route adjacent to the identified hazardous facilities as much as possible,

- Do not select route passing through vulnerable building area as much as possible, and

- Do not select the designated emergency road network as much as possible.

Maintenance and improvement of identified evacuation routes should be done by

municipalities or MINFRA. For example, to carry out road markings on evacuation

route is safe announcement for local people and to keep out illegal parking (Figure

S2-8.3).

(5) Evacuation plan of barrio areas

Barrio areas are considerably different from urban area in its spatial structure. Barrio areas are

very much congested and have very little open spaces. Barrio’s average population density is

363 persons per hectors, with some barrio showing more than 1,000 persons per hector. Even

though 1 m2 evacuation space for one evacuee requires average 362 m2 evacuation space from 1

hector of house-packed dense barrio land.

The higher population density implies the higher average number of stories of buildings. The

fact that the higher the barrio house, the more vulnerable leads to the higher density barrio is

more vulnerable to earthquake.

Most houses are connected only stairways or allies that are very narrow. Accordingly, both

evacuation and access are difficult at barrio areas in case of earthquake disaster.

The study team conducted a case study of evacuation at the community of Las Margaritas,

Barrio La Vega, Libertador Municipality. Las Margaritas community has little open space

and evacuating routes with narrow alley and stairways in the community. Some stairways

have gates with lock that will hamper evacuation in emergency.

Some houses are not linked even to stairway or ally. Such houses must secure its evacuation

route.

The following is important factors for the evacuation plan in the barrio community.

- People should understand that barrio building of 3 stories or more is highly vulnerable to

earthquake based on the results of the JICA Study Team’s field test.

- To secure evacuation route, the following needed:

- Reinforcement of buildings along roads, stairway and allies to secure the evacuation route;

S2 - 75

- Redevelopment of evacuation space to secure own evacuation area within the community.

This will require some community member to relocate.

- In case smaller barrios surrounded by urban area or adjacent to the urban area, they are

supposed to included in the evacuation plan of the surrounding urban area.

- Evacuation plan for barrio should be accompanied by the community-based rescue

equipment, because of the narrow street, alley, and stairways are highly likely to be blocked

in case of earthquake.

8. 5. 3. Emergency Transportation Network

(1) Objective

To secure the emergency road network in order to rescue people, conduct relief activities, and

transport goods and people promptly and effectively in the event of earthquake disaster.


Caracas has no recognized emergency transportation network among the government agencies.

It is indispensable to designate the primary and secondary network of emergency roads in order

to do rescue and relief activities, and transport goods, people, etc., promptly and effectively

In the case of the 1967 earthquake scenario, a total of 10,020 heavily damaged building are

estimated to produce about 1,279,700 m3 of debris, or 1,884,000 tons of debris. Part of such

debris will block the road access. Also objects fallen off from buildings and fallen fences will

block roads. Most of the debris is produced in barrio areas, thereby the access should be

secured to barrio areas.

2) Committee on Emergency Transportation Network

A committee on Emergency Transportation Network shall be established with Civil

Protection as lead agency to plan the emergency transport. The committee will decide

the responsibilities of the related organizations and agencies in emergency road

operation. The committee constitutes Civil Protection Metropolitan, MINFRA,

municipalities Engineers offices, and traffic police.

2) Emergency Road Network within Metropolitan District

Emergency road network will be propagated by the committee to the municipalities and

organizations responsible for primary emergency responses (rescue and medical

S2 - 76

operation), in order to respond effectively to the emergency situation in case of

earthquake.

Establishment of Emergency Road network

Important facilities related to disaster management should be prioritized who respond to

the emergency situations. To connect them efficiently in emergency situation,

emergency road networks within the Metropolitan Caracas will be established, and be

recognized by the committee, and organizations responsible for primary emergency

responses (rescue and medical operation and other related organizations. The network

is composed of primary emergency road and secondary emergency road as follows:

Primary Emergency Road

- Roads linking with Disaster Management Centers of national, state, Metropolitan and

municipality levels, and major airport as for transportation nodes.

Secondary Emergency Road

- Roads linking with all the identified emergency response centers of rescue/fire

fighting/security, and medical care.

Emergency road network should be selected from the existing arterial road network, out

of which roads wider than 15 meter are designated as emergency roads to avoid and

minimize influences from roadside building damages and secondary disasters. Not too

many emergency roads should be designated. It should be set in coordination with

actual capacity of each emergency response taskforces of debris removal, traffic control,

etc. Otherwise the designated emergency road network may not work and not be used

within the first three days after earthquake which is the critical period for search and

rescue response activities

Use of emergency road network

In order to use the emergency road efficiently, MINFRA and other road administrators

will be responsible for removing the debris and primarily response to the damaged

infrastructure on the emergency roads. The municipalities of Metropolitan District are

responsible to investigate the area affected, and report to MINFRA and the competent

road administrators at once

3) Secure Access to Metropolitan Caracas (Land and air transportation)

In order to respond to the accommodation of people and commodities donated

domestically and internationally, Caracas should have transportation to access the

S2 - 77

transportation hubs like Simon Bolivar International airport and the military airport in

Caracas.

4) Public notification of Emergency Transportation Network

Emergency transportation network shall be informed to all related agencies by

Metropolitan Civil Protection in order to respond effectively in the emergency situation.

Signs of emergency roads should be set up on the roads to notify the public. An

example of emergency road in Japan is illustrated in S2-8.4

5) Traffic Control on the emergency roads

After the disaster happens, the traffic shall be controlled on the emergency roads for a

smooth operation.

- Publicity about traffic control on emergency roads

- Procurement of equipment for traffic control in emergency

(3) Preliminary Selection of Emergency Roads

Figure S2-8.6 shows provisional emergency road network with some plans in it to configurate

the effective total routes for the future. The routes were selected by using the shortest path

method of GIS software on the JICA Team’s GIS data-base to connect the relevant

governmental facilities, and emergency response agencies.

8. 6 Recommendations for Recovery and Reconstruction Plan

8. 6. 1. Introduction

Rehabilitation and reconstruction of the damaged involves restoration of people’s normal life and

restoration of urban area. The disaster damages the normal life of the citizen. The victims of the

disaster events strongly hope to return to their normal life as soon as possible.

The rehabilitation and reconstruction phase can be divided into the recovery phase and the

rehabilitation and reconstruction phase. In recovery phase, the purpose is to return to before the

earthquake situations. Restoration of normal life could be main focus on recovery phase. In

reconstruction and rehabilitation phase, the urban reconstruction is the main focus.

Caracas has not prepared for rehabilitation and reconstruction phase after the disaster event.

According to law, the establishment of the rehabilitation organization will be the first priority. After

the establishment of the organization, procedure on rehabilitation should be established.

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Urban planning point of view, temporary housing plan to support people to return to their normal life,

and pre-disaster post-disaster reconstruction plan that includes restoration of urban physical aspects

and various kinds of urban activities.

8. 6. 2. Temporary Housing Plan

(1) General

To provide temporary houses to those who lose the houses to live in the case of earthquake

until those have their own houses, in the recovery and reconstruction stages after the

earthquake.

It is estimated that 10,020 buildings (urban 1,018, barrio and rural 9002) will be heavily

damaged in the event of the scenario earthquake of 1967. The damaged building will not be

used at all.

Table S2-8.3 shows estimated number of affected people who have to evacuate. They will not

be able to live in their damaged houses and need temporary houses to live. On the assumption

that half of the residents of such unlivable houses would go stay at their relatives or

acquaintances, or would return to their hometown, and the remaining half the families are

assumed to need the temporary houses. The number of the temporary houses needed is

calculated as approximately 8,500 houses for the 1967 scenario case. The number is huge for

the Venezuelan government; thus it is mandatory to formulate a temporary housing plan

including construction sites

(2) Supply temporary houses

As seen in Table S2-8.3, the numbers of necessary temporary houses are about 7,522 in

Libertador, 143 in Chacao, and 944 in Sucre. It is required to study the necessary area for the

temporary houses and the possible area available for the temporary houses.

It is recommended to develop standard unit or module for temporary housing and assessment of

existing local production capacity, cost and time for necessary production.

For example, assumed that the size of a temporary house is 50 m2 per family, thus around 42.5

hectares of land is required to construct 8,500 housing units for the 1967 scenario. If common

and public space occupies 40% of the total development area, the area required is estimated to

become approximately 71 hectors of land.

Liertador needs 62 hectors of land, Chacao 1 ha, and Sucre 8 hectors in gross.

S2 - 79

Such temporary houses are preferable to be stored before a disaster event happens. There is a

houses designed by a Venezuelan famous architect, Jorge Castillo (Figure S2-8.7). This

module is about 52 m2 for minimum size that can accommodate a family of 4 or 5. This is

light in weight about 1 ton per unit with about 10 pieces of module parts. This is easy to

assemble and three ordinary men could assemble one unit for three hours without a special

skill.

It is essential to study the procurement of land, construction materials and the required cost and

time for the temporary house construction, and to formulate measures to achieve it.

(3) Supply public services

It is necessary to draw up countermeasures for delivery of pubic services such as water,

electricity, gas, sewerage treatment, solid waste treatment, health and medical services,

education, telecommunication, transportation services, etc, in relation to temporary housing

construction.

8. 6. 3. Pre-disaster Post-disaster Reconstruction Plan

(1) General

Caracas is the center of the country and is highly concentrated with political, economic and

cultural activities and functions. Urban fabric of Caracas is characterized by its polarization

of formal urban developed area and so-called informal development (barrios) and the latter

expose urban planning problem, over-crowded housings built on a highly dangerous land with

less utilities and infrastructure. From regional disaster prevention point of view, Caracas is

lack of gross open spaces, less equipped with redundant highway networks.

In the process of reconstruction in case of a large disaster, in order not to prevent a devastating

damage from happening again, such problems of urban structure should be improved to

disaster-resistant urban structure, taking the disaster as a good opportunity.

It is estimated that 10,020 buildings (urban 1,018, barrio 9002), or 3.2 % (urban 1.2 %, barrio

3.9%) of the total buildings (314,657) will be heavily damaged in the event of the 1967

scenario earthquake. The damage caused by the earthquake is in part attributable to the urban

structure of Caracas, in particular, highly congested residential areas which are often found in

barrio areas. The damage is huge, but quick post-disaster recovery and reconstruction are

mandatory to restore normal life and activities. For prompt recovery and reconstruction,

pre-disaster arrangements to cope with post-disaster situation are imperative.

S2 - 80

After an earthquake disaster, everybody wants a quick recovery and reconstruction for normal

living, including daily activities, housing, employment, social and economic activities, etc.

Although an earthquake disaster would bring about huge damage, it would be an opportunity to

reform the urbanized areas that have been developed in unplanned way. The reconstruction of

the damaged areas should aim at building a safer and better urban environment out of the

damaged areas. Also, the reconstruction process should be advanced by collaborative efforts

of public sector, private sector, and citizens.

(2) Facilitate quick return to the normalcy

To facilitate the smooth and proper recovery and reconstruction of the damaged Caracas and to

quickly regain people’s normal life, education, employment, and social and economic activities,

necessary policies and measures for post-disaster urban reconstruction should be discussed and

formulated, including living, housing, employment, and economic activities.

(3) Make living environment much safer and better than before the disaster

1) Draft pre-disaster guideline on the post-disaster reconstruction of the damaged area

For the smooth reconstruction of the damaged areas, pre-disaster reconstruction

arrangement for the post-disaster situation is strongly needed. Especially, for the

vulnerable areas like barrio areas, pre-disaster guidelines should be made by each

Municipality. Such guidelines should be formulated in a participatory approach based

on the risk map produced by this JICA’s disaster prevention master plan study. The

guidelines will be made for various areas of detached houses, collective residences, and

barrio areas. And this would also stipulate some restriction of construction of buildings

in a certain period of time after the disaster until the concrete reconstruction plan will be

drawn up.

2) Enhance the planned reconstruction

Barrio areas are very vulnerable to earthquakes, but they are very resilient because their

houses can be constructed easily and cheaply in non-engineering way. However,

reconstruction in such a way should not be allowed, and efforts should be made to create

a better urbanized area after the disaster. Also such areas vulnerable to earthquake

disasters should be declared as restrict zone, if necessary. Before the disaster, rules on

control of the reconstruction of the areas must be established with the government, land

owners, barrio residents and other concerned parties.

S2 - 81

If possible, construction of multiple houses in middle-rise buildings under social housing

scheme is preferable from the disaster prevention and urban amenity perspective.

3) Establish the procedure for post-disaster reconstruction

The procedure of reconstruction of the damaged area should be drafted before disaster.

The procedure may cover the period from immediately after the disaster event to the

commencement of construction of buildings, and further to the ultimate picture of the

reconstructed area.

The procedure includes purchase of the land or compensation by the government to

prevent people from returning to the risky land to live again, even though the land had

been owned by the government and squatted by private individuals as long as the right to

live is attributed to the people. Based on the damage estimation of earthquake, most of

the buildings that would suffer from heavy damage are located in barrio areas, a large

part of which are risky.

4) Establish financial assistance

Recovery after a major disaster may be the most significant challenge a local

government. Those who have to reconstruct or repair their houses need funds. Those

people are not prepared much in financial terms for disaster especially barrio resident

victims who are the majority of the estimated victims. To advance the reconstruction

process smoothly, finance and credit scheme and insurance scheme for supporting

reconstruction needs to be enhanced. The scheme will be prepared for various types of

needs such as reconstruction of buildings (detached or collective houses), repair of partly

damaged buildings, etc.

In addition, it is recommendable that the government should insure all the public

buildings that would be strengthened.

Even though Law of National Organizations of Civil Protection and Disaster Preparation

and Administration (Ley de la organizacion nacional de proteccion civil y administracion

de desastres) has Article 14 stipulating the fund for preparation and administration of

disasters, and that Ministry of Interior and Justice assumes the authority for budgetary

assignment in emergency situation, the resource is limited to national budget.

Consequently, it is preferable to transfer risk of huge loss and spending a large amount

for reconstruction from the budget limitation by insuring.27

27 Economic losses caused by natural catastrophes reported ranging from $30 to $190 billion reported averaged roughly at

S2 - 82

It is notable that prices of catastrophe insurance are high and supply of catastrophe

insurance is low because land-use regulation and building codes are not effectively

enforced.28 Also, expectation of availability of ex-post international assistance plays

major roles in providing disaster-related assistance in response to victims of natural

disasters.29

5) Establish Committee on Reconstruction

To formulate the Rehabilitation and Recovery Plan of Caracas, a committee is

recommended to be organized.

- Create a committee or task force with municipalities and other key agencies and PC

(AMDC, municipality) and planning office of AMDC, to develop guidance to

municipalities on establishing pre-disaster policies and institutional arrangements for

post-disaster reconstruction and mitigation,

- Formulate basic reconstruction policies for living, housing, employment and

economic activities: Necessary policies and measures for post-disaster urban

reconstruction should be discussed and formulated including living, housing,

employment, education, and economic activities. The policies and measures include

various financial schemes and guidelines to help people and businesses.

$65 billion. More than 60 % of the reported economic losses in recent years have related to the events in developing countries. Approximately half the losses in industrialized countries were covered by formal insurance contracts, while only some 5 % of reported damages in developing countries were covered. (Andersen, J.Torben, “Globalization and Natural Disasters: An Integrated Risk management Perspective, Chapter 4 of Building Safer Cities The Future of Disaster Risk,” Disaster risk Management Serie, No3.,ed. Alcira Kreimer, Margaret Arnold, and Anne Carlin, The World Bank, p.57, 2003). 28 Phillippe Auffret, Catastrophe Insurance Market in the Caribbean Region: Market Failures and Recommendations for Public Sector Interventions, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 2963, p. 18, Jan. 2003 29 Ibid, p.27.

S2 - 83

Table S2-8.1 Characteristics of Disaster Disaster type Frequency Identify the risky Area Area and damage scale Earthquake Not frequent Difficult to pinpoint the

risky area and buildings, only with relative risks by simulating an earthquake

Large area and huge damage

Debris flow disaster

Rather Frequent

Not so difficult to pinpoint the area and buildings to be damaged

Rather small area and small scale

Land slide / slope failure

Rather Frequent

Not so difficult to pinpoint the affected area

Small scale each but large altogether


Table S2-8.2 Disaster Type and Possible Countermeasures Disaster type Possible countermeasures Earthquake (large area and infrequent)

・ Basically, Reinforcement of buildings is preferable ・ Resettlement of people on steep slope in a high

estimated damage areas are preferable ・ Preparation to earthquake disaster is needed, like

evacuation, rescue operation or so. Debris flow (Small area and frequent)

・ Resettlement of people from risky river channels beforehand

Land slide and slope failure (Small area and frequent)

・ Resettlement of people on steep slope of high land slide and slope failure susceptibility is preferable

・ Slope protection is an option, though it is costly. ・ Area improvement such as drainage improvement is

also needed. Source: JICA Study Team

Table S2-8.3 Estimated Number of Affected Population, Evacuation Place Needed, and Temporary Houses Needed

Affected Number of people Evacuation Space needed

Accommodate 50% (No)

Total Urban+ rural Barrio Net (m2)

(2m2/person)Gross (m2)

(4 m2/person) Required

Temporary Houses

Libertador 67,695 16,496 51,199 135,391 270,781 7,522 Chacao 1,280 911 370 2,561 5,122 143 Sucre 8,495 1,977 6,518 16,989 33,979 944

Study Area 76,396 19,389 57,007 152,791 305,583 8,489 Source: Population by urban +rural, barrio is estimated based on the census 2001 data by using segments of census and GIS barrio map. Note: Required temporary houses are calculated as half of the evacuated families need temporary houses and the other half will leave for the relatives’ or some other places and will not need temporary houses. One family is assumed to have 4.5 members. Urban and rural areas: According to the INE, the area of concentration of a population of more than 2,500 inhabitants is classified as urban and those of 2,500 or less as rural.

S2 - 84

Table S2-8.4 Amount of Debris of Buildings in 1967 Scenario Earthquake Case Area Disaster Loss

(No. Bldg) Unit Debris

Amount (m3/m2)

Debris (m3)

Debris (tone)

Urban 1,018 0.70 469,600 668,900Rural 634 0.60 57,100 85,600Barrio 8,368 0.60 753,000 1,129,500Total 10,020 1,279,700 1,884,000

Source: JICA Study Team Note: 0.7 m3 or 1 ton per m2 of building floor for urban area and 0.6m3 or 0.9 ton per m2 of building floor for barrio and rural area

(Required road width for evacuation: 7~8 meter)

Source: Urban Disaster Prevention Handbook, 1997, Gyosei, Tokyo, Japan

Figure S2-8.1 Road Width of Evacuation Route

Signboard for ”Regional Evacuation Place and Temporary Relief Place”

Signboard for ”Emergency Heliport”

Signboard for ”Relief Supplies Terminal”

Source: Official homepage of Odawara City, Japan

Figure S2-8.2 Example of Signboard for Emergency Places

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Source: Official homepage of Itabashi district municipality, Japan

Figure S2-8.3 Example of Evacuation Route Sign on Sidewalk

緊急交通路

EMERGENCY ROAD

地震災害時、一般車両通行禁止CLOSED IN EVENT MAJOR EARTHQUAKE

東京都・警視庁

TOKYO METROPOLITAN POLICE

Source: Metropolitan Police Department, Japan

Note: Catfish is a symbol of earthquake in Japan

Figure S2-8.4 Signboard of Emergency Road in Tokyo, Japan

S2 - 86

Source: Tokyo Metropolitan Government, Japan and modified by JICA Study Team

Figure S2-8.5 Example of Signboards on Emergency Road for Evacuees in Tokyo, Japan


Figure S2-8.6 Emergency Road Network (Draft)

S2 - 87

Figure S2-8.7 Module Used in Baruta as Police Station

S2 - 88

Area development including roads, park and collective housing makes the area safer and gives better amenity. (Area development or phased development)

Development of park and plaza

Using school as disaster prevention center

Little road space and other open space are likely to suffer from road blockage by debris and difficult evacuation in case of disaster.

Development of roads

Development of detached houses into mid- to High rise apartment houses

Development of Disaster management Center

Congested urban area

Improvement of the Area

Figure S2-8.8 Creation of Open Space

S3

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PREVENTION

“If disasters you prevent, Caracas' progress you won't detain”

Alfredo Varela

i



FINAL REPORT

SUPPORTING REPORT

S3

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PREVENTION

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1 REVIEW OF COLLECTED DATA

1.1 Tectonic Setting ---------------------------------------------------------------------------S3-1 1.2 Historical Earthquakes---------------------------------------------------------------------S3-1 1.3 Seismicity ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------S3-2 1.4 Strong Motion Records --------------------------------------------------------------------S3-2 1.5 Avila Project -------------------------------------------------------------------------------S3-2

CHAPTER 2 DEFINITION OF SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE

2.1 Introduction --------------------------------------------------------------------------------S3-10 2.2 Definition of Scenario Earthquake --------------------------------------------------------S3-10

CHAPTER 3 METHOD OF GROUND MOTION ESTIMATION

3.1 Selection of Attenuation Equation --------------------------------------------------------------S3-14 3.2 Selection of Input Waves-------------------------------------------------------------------------S3-14 3.3 Seismic Response Calculation-------------------------------------------------------------------S3-14 3.4 Estimation of Seismic Intensity -----------------------------------------------------------------S3-15

CHAPTER 4 ESTIMATED RESULTS OF GROUND MOTION

4.1 Estimated Peak Ground Acceleration-----------------------------------------------------------S3-19 4.2 Estimated Peak Ground Velocity----------------------------------------------------------------S3-19 4.3 Estimated Seismic Intensity----------------------------------------------------------------------S3-19 4.4 Validation of Estimated Result --------------------------------------------------------------S3-19

CHAPTER 5 DISASTER PREVENTION FOR EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

5.1 Structural Measures-----------------------------------------------------------------------------S3-28

ii

5.2 Non-Structural Measures ----------------------------------------------------------------------S3-29

CHAPTER 6 EARTHQUAKE DISASTER SCENARIO

6.1 Introduction ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------S3-30 6.2 Interpretation of Scenarios --------------------------------------------------------------------S3-31 6.3 Lessons from Past Earthquakes --------------------------------------------------------------S3-32 6.4 Disaster as a Chain Reaction -----------------------------------------------------------------S3-33 6.5 Proposal of Base Disaster Scenarios for Disaster Prevention Plan------------------S3-33

i

S3

LIST OF TABLES

Table S3-1.1.1 Quaternary Faults Around Caracas (Audemard et. al. 2000) --------- S3-3 Table S3-1.2.1 Lists of Earthquakes that Affected Caracas----------------------------- S3-3 Table S3-1.2.2 Comparison of Parameters for the 1812 Earthquake ------------------ S3-4 Table S3-1.2.3 Comparison of Parameters for the 1878 Earthquake ------------------ S3-5 Table S3-1.2.4 Comparisons of Parameters for the 1967 Earthquake ----------------- S3-5 Table S3-2.2.1 Scenario Earthquakes and their Parameters----------------------------- S3-11 Table S3-3.2.1 Parameters of Earthquake that Generated Input Waves --------------- S3-16 Table S3-3.2.2 List of Selected Input Waves --------------------------------------------- S3-16 Table S3-4.4.1 Estimated Damage of the 1967 Earthquake Using Building Data in 1967 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- S3-21 Table S3-4.4.2 Comparison of Simulation Results by Various Cases ---------------- S3-21 Table S3-6.1.1 Number of Disasters and its Human Impact in Venezuela (1900-2001) ----------------------------------------------------------------- S3-35 Table S3-6.2.1 Comparison of Social Conditions, Real Damage and Estimated Damage --------------------------------------------------------------------- S3-35 Table S3-6.2.2 Estimated Building Damage by Building Types ---------------------- S3-35 Table S3-6.5.1 Prioritization of Scenarios ------------------------------------------------ S3-36 Table S3-6.5.2 Possibility of Occurrence and its Impact ------------------------------- S3-36 Table S3-6.5.3 Disaster Scenarios for Disaster Prevention Plan ----------------------- S3-36

i

S3

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure S3-1.1.1 Quaternary Faults Around Caracas (Audemard et.al, 2000) ---------- S3-6 Figure S3-1.2.1 Epicenters of Earthquakes that Affected Caracas ---------------------- S3-6 Figure S3-1.2.2 Isoseismal Map for the 1812 Earthquake (Altez, 2000)--------------- S3-7 Figure S3-1.2.3 Isoseismal Map for the 1878 Earthquake (Fiedler, 1961)------------- S3-7 Figure S3-1.2.4 Isoseismal Map in Caracas for the 1967 Earthquake (Fiedler, 1968) -------------------------------------------------------------- S3-8 Figure S3-1.3.1 Seismic Activity in Central Venezuela (Sobiesiak and Romero, 2002) ------------------------------------------- S3-8 Figure S3-1.3.2 Depth Histogram of North Central Venezuela 1961-July 2002, Excluding Events with Depth=0, (Sobiesiak, 2003) ------------------- S3-9 Figure S3-1.4.1 Accelerograph Stations in Venezuela (FUNVISIS) ------------------- S3-9 Figure S3-2.1.1 Flowchart of Seismic Micro Zoning Study ----------------------------- S3-12 Figure S3-2.2.1 Locations of Faults for Scenario Earthquake --------------------------- S3-13 Figure S3-3.1.1 Attenuation Curves Employed in This Study--------------------------- S3-17 Figure S3-3.2.1 Input Accelerogram Used for the 1967 Earthquake ------------------- S3-17 Figure S3-3.2.2 Input Accelerogram Used for the 1812 Earthquake ------------------- S3-17 Figure S3-3.2.3 Input Accelerogram Used for the 1878 Earthquake ------------------- S3-18 Figure S3-3.2.4 Input Accelerogram Used for the Hypothetical Avila Earthquake--- S3-18 Figure S3-3.3.1 Mesh Systems for Seismic Hazard Analysis---------------------------- S3-18 Figure S3-4.1.1 Estimated Peak Ground Acceleration for the 1967 Earthquake ------ S3-22 Figure S3-4.1.2 Estimated Peak Ground Acceleration for the 1812 Earthquake ------ S3-22 Figure S3-4.1.3 Estimated Peak Ground Acceleration for the 1878 Earthquake ------ S3-22 Figure S3-4.1.4 Estimated Peak Ground Acceleration for Hypothetical Avila Earthquake ------------------------------------------------------------------ S3-23 Figure S3-4.2.1 Estimated Peak Ground Velocity for the 1967 Earthquake ----------- S3-23 Figure S3-4.2.2 Estimated Peak Ground Velocity for the 1812 Earthquake ----------- S3-23 Figure S3-4.2.3 Estimated Peak Ground Velocity for the 1878 Earthquake ----------- S3-24 Figure S3-4.2.4 Estimated Peak Ground Velocity for Hypothetical Avila Earthquake ------------------------------------------------------------------ S3-24 Figure S3-4.3.1 Estimated Seismic Intensity for the 1967 Earthquake ----------------- S3-24

ii

Figure S3-4.3.2 Estimated Seismic Intensity for the 1812 Earthquake ----------------- S3-25 Figure S3-4.3.3 Estimated Seismic Intensity for the 1878 Earthquake ----------------- S3-25 Figure S3-4.3.4 Estimated Seismic Intensity for Hypothetical Avila Earthquake----- S3-25 Figure S3-4.4.1 Comparison between the Estimated Seismic Intensity for the 1967 Scenario

Earthquake and the Surveyed Seismic Intensity during the 1967 Earthquake (Fiedler, 1968) -------------------------------------------------------------- S3-26

Figure S3-4.4.2 Vulnerability Curve of Buildings in Old Caracas in 1812 Based on EMS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- S3-26 Figure S3-4.4.3 Possible Location of Fault Segment of the 1812 Earthquake. Tip of Arrows

Indicates the East End of the Segment, Corresponding to the Case in Table S3-4.4.1. --------------------------------------------------------------------- S3-27

Figure S3-4.4.4 Estimated Seismic Intensity Map in Old Caracas for Case F--------- S3-27 Figure S3-4.4.5 Evaluated Damage Degree from Historical Documents (Altez, 2004) -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- S3-27 Figure S3-6.1.1 Population Growth and Seismic Intensity in Caracas ----------------- S3-37 Figure S3-6.4.1 Possible Chain of Problems During Earthquake Disaster------------- S3-38

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S-3 EARTHQUAKE DISASTER PREVENTION

CHAPTER 1. REVIEW OF COLLECTED DATA

1. 1 Tectonic Setting

Northern Venezuela is located in the interaction zone between the Caribbean plate moving eastward and the South American plate moving westward. This plate boundary is a 100-km wide active deformation zone, but right-lateral motion seems to take place along the dextral faults system, and the remainder of deformation is distributed across lesser but associated faults within and offshore of Venezuela.

Quaternary active faults in Venezuela are catalogued by Audemard et. al. (2000). The catalogue describes each fault in detail, covering fault length, fault type, and annual slip rate. A part of the map prepared by Audermard around Caracas is shown in Figure S3-1.1.1, and the faults in the map are listed in Table S3-1.1.1.

Among these faults, the San Sebastian fault system along the coast is the most active fault system, although its location, age, and activity rates are poorly known since no marine survey is available. In the south, La Victoria fault system with five sections has a less active slip rate between 0.4 and 1.1 mm/year. In the north of Caracas Valley, there extends the Tacagua - El Avila fault system, with less slip rate from 0.17 to less than 0.4 mm/year.

1. 2 Historical Earthquakes

In Venezuela, catalogues on disastrous earthquakes can date back to 1530 (Centeno Grau (1965), Grases (1900), Grases et. al. (1999)). Figure S3-1.2.1 shows epicenters of major earthquakes that affected Caracas in history estimated by Grases (1990). They can be classified into two categories.

- Earthquakes that occurred in the North of Caracas such as 1641, 1812, 1900, and 1967 events. They occurred along the boundary of the Caribbean plate and the South American Plate, i.e. along San Sebastian, Bocono, or El Pilar fault systems. Though the epicenter of the 1641 earthquake may be located in the south of Caracas (Audemard, 2002), due to the observation of heavy damage in Cua.

- Earthquakes that occurred in the South of Caracas such as 1837 and 1878 events. They can be attributed to La Victoria or Tacata fault systems.

Table S3-1.2.1 shows description of earthquake history in Caracas, compiled from different earthquake catalogues in Venezuela. This is because each catalogue has advantages and limitations as

S3 - 2

follows. Centeno Grau (1968) includes complete text of the key documents regarding the 1812 earthquakes, which are not included in later catalogues. Grases (1990) has parameters for most of the events, with brief description of damages and isoseismal map. Grases (1999) has collection of excerpts from various sources, but parameters and isoseismal maps are not included.

Major earthquakes are studied by various researchers, and isoseismal maps are estimated. The isoseismal maps and comparative review of parameters of major earthquakes that affected Caracas are shown in Tables S3-1.2.1 to S3-1.2.4 and Figures S3-1.2.2 to S3-1.2.4. Although isoseismal maps may be affected by population distribution at that time, they can serve as a basis to estimate the magnitude of the earthquake as well as the damage distribution.

1. 3 Seismicity

Earthquake observation around Caracas has been carried out to study seismicity since 1940. Figure S3-1.3.1 shows seismic activity of the region and a histogram of magnitude and number of events. The depth histogram in Figure S3-1.3.2 shows that the earthquake hypocenter depth mostly ranges between 16 to 2 km beneath the ground surface. (Sobiesiak, (2003)).

1. 4 Strong Motion Records

Strong motion observation in Venezuela started since the 1980’s. The Figure S3-1.4.1 shows location of accelerograph stations, and most of them are located along major fault systems. The number of records obtained to date is more than 80, with maximum acceleration of 178.90 gal.

1. 5 Avila Project

A seismic hazard study applying the probabilistic method was conducted by FUNVISIS (2001) within the Avila project. In the project, faults around Caracas within the radius of 200km were taken into account, and attenuation law developed in Venezuela (INTEVEP, 1990) has been used to calculate expected acceleration on the bedrock.

The result shows that 0.3 g at the level of bedrock is expected for the mean return period of 475 years around Caracas. Regarding the contribution of each fault to the estimation result, the San Sebastian fault has the largest effect, La Victoria fault and the Avila fault then follow.

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Table S3-1.1.1 Quaternary Faults Around Caracas (Audemard et. al. 2000)

Table S3-1.2.1 Lists of Earthquakes that Affected Caracas

Yea

r

Mon

th

Day

Loca

l Tim

e

Mag

nitu

de

Seis

mic

In

tens

ity in

C

arac

as

Description

1641 6 11 8:15

The earthquake destroyed the first city of Cua. The new city was founded in 1690 with a name El Rosario de Cua, 1 km north from former location. The earthquake affected Caracas where Church and other buildings collapsed.

1766 10 21 4:30 7.9 V

For the extension of the felt area and for the duration of aftershocks, this earthquake is probably the major magnitude that had affected the northeastern Venezuela. The aftershocks were felt every one-hour during 14 months. The earthquake caused damages in various cities in the eastern Venezuela and in Caracas.

1812 3 26

16:07 (Caracas)

17:00 (Merida)

6.3 (Caracas)

6.2 (Barquisi-meto, San Felipe),

7 ( Merida),

IX

The earthquake affected severely in distant places such as Merida, Barquisimeto, San Felipe and Caracas. From the basis of damage distribution, it is postulated to be three different events. The number of victims was about 5000 in Merida, 3000 in San Felipe, 4000 to 5000 in Barquisimeto, and 10000 in Caracas. In total, the number of victims was about 40000 from Merida to Caracas. In Caracas, northern sectors of the city were almost completely destroyed, in the southern and eastern sectors, the damage was minor. In the Avila, there were large collapses, and cracks of large dimension were formed. The ground motion lasted 48 seconds in Caracas, in the direction of west to east. The recent study reveals that about 60% buildings were heavily damaged in Caracas and death toll in Caracas could be reduced to 2,000. (Altez, 2004)

1837 9 10 14:00

Strong earthquake in Caracas. Destructive in Santa Teresa of Tuy and Santa Lucia. Destruction of some consideration, houses collapsed. There were little victims and most of them were injured.

No. Fault name End to end length (km)

Cumlative length (km)

Maximum credible Ms

Recurrence interval

Slip Rate (mm/year) Average Strike Average Dip Sense of Movement Recent

activity

8 La Victoria 354 466 N 78 E±17

8a Guacamaya 146 235 7.0 2000 0.6 N 80 E±22 Subvertical Right-lateral <1.6Ma

8b La Caberera 26 26 6.3 545 1.1 N 72 E±0 Subvertical Right-lateral <15ka

8c El Horno 34 34 6.4 1200 0.5 N 72 E±2 Subvertical Right-lateral <1.6Ma

8d La Victoria 52 52 6.7 1500 0.55 N 77 E±3 Subvertical Right-lateral <1.6Ma

8e Pichao 118 118 6.9 2300 0.4 N 76 E±3 Subvertical Right-lateral <1.6Ma

9 Rio Guarico 120 131 N 71 E±19

9a North section 33 40 6.6 2300+ <0.3 N 59 W±2 Unknown Right-lateral <1.6Ma

9b Soyth section 89 91 6.6 2300+ <0.3 N 77 W±18 Unknown Right-lateral <1.6Ma

10 Tacagua-El Avila 67.6 70.2 N 77 W±13

10a Tacagua 19.7 20.1 6.5 4000 0.17 N 71 W High dip to southRight-lateral with significant normal

component<1.6Ma

10b El Avila 48.8 50.1 6.8 2300- <0.4 N 83 W High dip to southRight-lateral with significant normal

component<1.6Ma

11 Tacata 78 80 6.7 2000+ <0.4 N 64 W±10 High dip to North Right-lateral <1.6Ma

12 Piritu 157 166 7.1 3250 0.3-0.4 N 65 W±14 High dip to North Right-lateral <1.6Ma

16 San Sebastian 483 529 N/A N/A 3-5(?) N 86 E±11 Subvertical Right-lateral <15 ka

S3 - 4

Yea

r

Mon

th

Day

Loca

l Tim

e

Mag

nitu

de

Seis

mic

In

tens

ity in

C

arac

as

Description

1878 4 12 20:40 5.9 VI-VII

Destructive earthquake to the south of Caracas that ruined the city of Cua where 300 to 400 died under debris out of 3000 habitants at that time. The field work indicated that houses in the lower part of the city on alluvial plane suffered relatively little damage, while higher areas of the city in rocky hill was destroyed (Ernst 1878). Death toll estimated to be 600 (The Times, London May 18, 1878 ). In Caracas, buildings suffered cracks. The ground motion lasted 8 to 10 seconds in Caracas.

1900 10 29 4:42 7.6 VII

The earthquake affected Macuto, Naiguata, Guatire, Guarenas, Higuerote, Carenero, and other cities of Barlovento that suffered great damages and victims. Many buildings suffered cracked and some collapsed in Caracas. 12 deaths. The second floor of British Embassy disappeared (The Times, London, October 30 to November 2, 1900). 250 aftershocks in 3 years. In Caracas, 20 houses collapsed and more than 100 were deteriorated, 21 death and more than 50 injured.

1967 7 29 6.3 VI-VIII

The earthquake caused important damages in Caraballeda, areas in Caracas and the central coast and felt in the north central of the country. Rial (1977) concludes it was multiple earthquakes、three events in the direction of northwest to southeast, possibly Tacagua fault system. According to Grasses (1990), death toll was 274, number of injured was 2000, and 100 million dollars were lost. Four buildings with ten to twelve floors, constructed between from 1962 and 1966 were totally ruined, other buildings with similar height in Caracas were partially damaged. No interruptions of service. The telegraphs and telephones were saved.

Source: Grau (1969), Grases (1990), Grases et. al. (1999), Altez (2004)

Table S3-1.2.2 Comparison of Parameters for the 1812 Earthquake

Fiedler,1968

FUNVISIS,1997

Altez,2000

Altez,2004

M 7 6.2 6.3 7.1 7 7.2 6.3 6.5-.7 6.9-7.2

Lat. 8.5 10.2 10.6 10.8 8.5 10.2 10.6

Lon 71.3 69.1 66.9 66.9 71.3 69.1 66.9

Depth 19 7 6 10-20 19 7 6

MMI IX+ IX IX VIII X IX IX

MMI inCCS

8-8.5

Barquisimeto-SanFelipe

Time 17:00 16:07

Death 10000 5000 8000 10000 2000

Fiedler, 1961 Grases, 1990 Grases et. al,2001

Area NearCaracas

Merida Caracas CaracasMérida SanFelipe

S3 - 5

Table S3-1.2.3 Comparison of Parameters for the 1878 Earthquake 1878/4/12 Fiedler 1968 Grases 1990 Grases et. al. 2001

MC 6.1 6.4-6.5

Lat 10.2 N 10.3 N

Lon 66.9 W 66.8 W

Depth 10-15km 13km

MMI 7.5-8 VIII-IX

MMI In Caracas 6-6.5 VII

Time 21:11 20:40

Death 300-400

Table S3-1.2.4 Comparisons of Parameters for the 1967 Earthquake

ISC: International Seismological Center, CAG:Cagigal Seismological Observatory, USGS: United States Geological Survey

1967/7/29 ISC CAG USGSFiedler1968

Rial 1977 Rial 1978Suarez &Nabelek1990

Grases1990

Ms 6.6 6.5 6.3 6.7 6.3mb 5.5 6.3 5.6 6.5Mw 6.6Mm 7.1-7.2 ?Lat 10.68 N 11.06 N 10.56 N 11.00 N 10.68 N 11.06 NLon 67.40 W 67.15 W 67.26 W 67.25 W 67.40 W 67.15 W

Depth 26 km 20 km 10 km 12 km 14km 20 kmMMI max VIII

MMICaracas

7±１ VII-VIII

Distanceto fault

60±5 km

Length 13 km

Events3 eventsin NW-SE

4 eventsin E-W

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Figure S3-1.1.1 Quaternary Faults Around Caracas (Audemard et.al, 2000)

Source: Grases, 1990

Figure S3-1.2.1 Epicenters of Earthquakes that Affected Caracas

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Figure S3-1.2.2 Isoseismal Map for the 1812 Earthquake (Altez, 2000)

Figure S3-1.2.3 Isoseismal Map for the 1878 Earthquake (Fiedler, 1961)

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Figure S3-1.2.4 Isoseismal Map in Caracas for the 1967 Earthquake (Fiedler, 1968)

Figure S3-1.3.1 Seismic Activity in Central Venezuela (Sobiesiak and Romero, 2002)

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Figure S3-1.3.2 Depth Histogram of North Central Venezuela 1961-July 2002, Excluding Events with Depth=0, (Sobiesiak, 2003)

Figure S3-1.4.1 Accelerograph Stations in Venezuela (FUNVISIS)

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CHAPTER 2. DEFINITION OF SCENARIO EARTHQUAKE

2. 1 Introduction

The overall flowchart of the seismic micro zoning study is illustrated in Figure S3-2.1.1. The object of micro zoning is to provide the basis to develop an earthquake disaster prevention plan for a region. This study assumes a specific scenario earthquake, which is a hypothetical earthquake.

It must be noted that the study is not a prediction of next earthquake in any sense, but a visualization of possible damages and outcomes under occurrence of a possible earthquake. The vulnerability estimation is not done for individual structures but employs statistical analysis to assess vulnerability in the region. The results must not be used for seismic design of structures, nor be used for insurance propose.

2. 2 Definition of Scenario Earthquake

With the review of collected data as described in Chapter 1, and through discussion with FUNVISIS, four scenario earthquakes are defined for this study. Among them, three scenario earthquakes are based on studies of historical earthquakes. The rupture zone of the 1812, the 1878, and hypothetical Avila earthquake is located along fault line presented in Audemard(2000).

For the location of segment for the 1967 earthquake, epicenter location determined by ISC and also used in Suarez and Nabelek et. al, (1990) is used for one end, and another end is taken from Suarez and Nabelek (1990) as an epicenter of the second event, because these events are the two major events out of four sub events studied in his work.

There are several interpretations regarding the 1812 earthquake, and earlier studies regard it as three events, or two events recently. In this JICA study, it is interpreted as two events after Grases & Rodriguez (2001), and magnitude is taken from the Grases & Rodriguez study. For the location of segment for the 1812 earthquake near Caracas, Grases (1990) and Isoseismal map by Altez (2000) were referenced.

As for the 1878 earthquake, the fault segment is located along La Victoria Fault.

The hypothetical Avila earthquake is included, because the fault is known to be active from the Quaternary fault study and seismological observation, even though there is no record of earthquake from this fault in historical documents. The magnitude of a hypothetical earthquake from the Avila fault for this study is defined to be 6.0, although the maximum credible magnitude is estimated to be 6.8. The segment location is taken from the Quaternary fault study.

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The magnitude is defined from a comparative review of studies on historical earthquakes. The fault type is defined from the Quaternary fault study and seismological observation. The fault size of the scenario earthquake is estimated using empirical relations from fault size and possible magnitude. As a result, segments of scenario earthquakes are located as shown in Figure S3-2.2.1, and their parameters are defined as shown in Table S3-2.2.1.

It should be noted that there are numerous studies regarding the fault location for historical earthquakes, thus several models for fault location can be made. Among them, the most appropriate model than can best reproduce seismic intensity is adopted through calibration. The calibration was made via comparing estimated seismic intensity by methodology developed for this study with historically observed seismic intensity and damage degrees, as described later in this chapter.

Table S3-2.2.1 Scenario Earthquakes and their Parameters

Scenario Mw Seismogenic Depth (km)

Fault Length Mechanism Fault system

1967 6.6 5 km 42 km Strike slip San Sebastian

1812 7.1 5 km 115 km Strike slip San Sebastian

1878 6.3 5 km 30 km Strike slip La Victoria

Avila 6 5 km 20 km Strike slip Tacagua-El Avila

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Figure S3-2.1.1 Flowchart of Seismic Micro Zoning Study

Definition of scenario earthquakes

Estimation of strong motion at Estimation of seismic response of

Estimation of strong ground

Estimation of liquefaction

Collection of information on earthquakes

Collection of information on social

Collection of information on ground

Development of ground model

Development of inventory on social Development of damage

Estimation of earthquake damages on social

Collection of studies on earthquake

Presentation of seismic risks on GIS

Presentation of seismic hazard on GIS

Hazard Analysis

Risk Analysis

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Figure S3-2.2.1 Locations of Faults for Scenario Earthquake

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CHAPTER 3. METHOD OF GROUND MOTION ESTIMATION

3. 1 Selection of Attenuation Law

Seismic waves are generated by fault movement, propagate along bedrock, and are affected by sediments before reaching the ground surface. Therefore, in order to evaluate the ground motion at a site, it is necessary to study the effect of source, propagation path, and site.

In this study, bedrock motion is calculated using an attenuation law. Various researchers had proposed attenuation laws. In order to select a suitable law among them, the study team and FUNVISIS discussed and examined the applicability of various attenuation laws. In this study, an attenuation law was selected using the following criteria:

- Movement of faults can be specified as strike slip

- Distance from the fault to the site ranges between from 0 to 100 km.

- Ground conditions can be specified, because many subsoil data is available.

- Data set used to develop the attenuation law includes large magnitude and close distance, and generated in shallow crusted earthquake.

As a result, JICA Study Team and FUNVISIS agreed to employ the formula proposed by Campbell (1997), as shown in Figure S3-3.1.1.

3. 2 Selection of Input Waves

During the 1967 Caracas earthquake, strong motion was not recorded. Since then, many efforts were made to record strong motion. However, strong motion datasets in Venezuela suitable for input waves for scenario earthquake in this study are not yet available. Therefore, input waves are selected from worldwide strong motion database, which are recorded under similar conditions of each scenario earthquake and are capable to reproduce observed seismic intensity as shown in Tables S3-3.1.8 and 3.1.9. Waveform and spectrum of each input waves are shown in Figures S3-3.2.1 to S3-3.2.4.

3. 3 Seismic Response Calculation

Although it is desirable to employ two-dimensional or three dimensional calculation methods to simulate seismic response of a valley, such methods require appropriate two or three dimensional ground models and huge computation. Therefore, one-dimensional calculation by SHAKE is used in this study.

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For the calculation, the maximum amplitude of input waves is adjusted according to the values calculated by attenuation law, and the ground model developed for each mesh as described in Supporting Report S-4 is used. Peak ground acceleration is then calculated for each 500 m sized mesh as shown in Figure S3-3.3.1.

3. 4 Estimation of Seismic Intensity

In Venezuela, MMI has been used to describe the shaking intensity during the earthquake. Seismic Intensity is a scale for the general description of ground motion and damages at a place, while peak ground acceleration is objective physical parameter that can be measured by accelerometer.

Some correlation exists among the intensity in a place and the maximum acceleration of the land, but it doesn't estimate the total effects that can take place in the range of structures of different vibration periods. Particularly, the effects of places associated with the predominance of the vibration period of the soil are not always estimated accurately by means of the maximum acceleration of land.

A better measurement is obtained by the peak ground velocity, but the consideration of the spectral answer in the typical range periods of the buildings provide a more reliable appreciation of the possible damages. In this sense, and within the framework of the foreseen procedure of estimation of intensities from the accelerograms obtained as a dynamic response of the floor, FUNVISIS proposed that instead of correlating the maximum accelerations with the intensities, the spectral responses were obtained as an intermediate step, following the procedure suggested in the book Fundamentals of Earthquake Engineering of Newmark and Rosenblueth. The steps for this procedure are described as follows:

- Calculate the spectral intensity (SI) of Housner (1952) as the integral between 0,1 and 2,5 seconds of the spectral pseudovelocity of response, evaluated in cm/s, of systems with reduction equal to 20% of the critical.

- Obtain average ground velocity v as an average of pseudo velocity spectrum in the range of integration, i.e. v = SI/2.4 (Esteva & Rosenblueth (1964); Rosenblueth (1964)).

- Estimate the seismic intensity by means of MMI = log(14v)/log2 .

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Table S3-3.2.1 Parameters of Earthquake that Generated Input Waves

Scenario Earthquake Country Date Mechanism M Ml Ms Mw Depth (km)

1967 Imperial Valley USA 1979/10/15 Strike Slip 6.5 6.6 6.9 12.1

1812 Duzce Turkey 1999/11/12 Strike Slip 7.1 7.2 7.3 14

1878 Big Bear Lake USA 1992/6/28 Strike Slip 6.5 6.6 6.4 7

Avila Morgan Hill USA 1984/04/24 Strike Slip 6.2 6.2 6.1 10

Table S3-3.2.2 List of Selected Input Waves

Scenario Site name Closest Dist.

to fault rupture

Site Condition Geomatrix

Site Condition

USGS

Compo- nent

PGA (G) Source Source

1967 6604 Cerro Prieto 26.5 km Rock Vs=360-

750m/s H-CPE237 0.157 UNAM/UCSD PEER

1812 Mudurnu 33.6 km Rock -- MDR000 0.12 ERD PEER

1878 Snow Creek 37.9* km Hard granitic bedrock Ch1

90Deg 0.164 CSMIP COSMOS

Avila 47379 Gilroy

Array #1 16.2 km Rock Vs>=

750m/s G01230 0.069 CDMG PEER

* Hypocentral Distance

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Figure S3-3.1.1 Attenuation Curves Employed in This Study

Source: PEER

Figure S3-3.2.1 Input Accelerogram Used for the 1967 Earthquake

Source: PEER Figure S3-3.2.2 Input Accelerogram Used for the 1812 Earthquake

0.01

0.10

1.00

1 10 100

Distance (km)

Bedr

ock

Accele

ration (

G)

1967

1812

1878

Avila

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Source: COSMOS

Figure S3-3.2.3 Input Accelerogram Used for the 1878 Earthquake

Source: PEER

Figure S3-3.2.4 Input Accelerogram Used for the Hypothetical Avila Earthquake

Figure S3-3.3.1 Mesh Systems for Seismic Hazard Analysis

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CHAPTER 4. ESTIMATED RESULTS OF GROUND MOTION

4. 1 Estimated Peak Ground Acceleration

Maps of estimated Peak Ground Acceleration for scenario earthquakes are shown in Figure S3-4.1.1

to Figure S3-4.1.4, respectively.

4. 2 Estimated Peak Ground Velocity

Maps of estimated Peak Ground Velocity for scenario earthquakes are shown in Figure S3-4.2.1 to

Figure S3-4.2.4, respectively.

4. 3 Estimated Seismic Intensity

Maps of estimated seismic intensity for scenario earthquakes are shown in Figure S3-4.3.1 to Figure

S3-4.3.4, respectively.

4.4 Validation of Estimated Result

The estimated result for each case is validated by following manners.

(1) The 1967 scenario earthquake

Fiedler (1968) had made a seismic intensity map in Caracas based on the field survey of building

damages after the earthquake. Estimated intensity in this Study was compared with that of Fiedler

(1968), as shown in Figure S-3.4.4.1.

Additionally, damage estimation using building data in 1967 is shown in Table S3-4.4.1. The result

shows good agreement with real data for the 1967 earthquake (FUNVISIS,1972) as follows:

- Population of 1.8 Million

- Building more than 4 stories: 6,000

- Building more than 10 stories: 1,000

- Collapse：4

- Severe damage:180

- Inhabitable：40


The spatial expansion of Old Caracas in 1812 and its population at that time was known in detail.

However, the existing information regarding the degree of damage, number of death, and seismic

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intensity in Old Caracas is contradictory, because that time was also a period of social disorder during

the struggle for national independence.

The scenario fault for the 1812 earthquake locates along San Sebastian fault. But there remain

uncertainties with respect to the exact location of the rupture segment involved in the 1812

earthquake. The possible key information to exactly locate the rupture segment is the damage extent

and its distribution in Old Caracas. Therefore, following approach was taken to verify these

parameters;

- The building is assumed to be uniformly distributed within Old Caracas.

- The average seismic strength of building in Old Caracas is evaluated by reviewing historical

documents (Altez, 2004). As a result, it is assumed to be a mixture of 75% of vulnerability class A

and 25% of vulnerability class B as defined in European Macro Sesimic (EMS) Intensity. The resulted

vulnerability curve is shown in Figure S 3-4.4.2.

- The degree of damage of buildings and their locations are mapped using historical documents,

taking documents' credibility into account (Altez, 2004). As a result, it is estimated that about 60 % of

buildings in Old Caracas were heavily damaged, and its northern part suffered higher degree of

damage. The total number of death was also estimated to be around 2,000.

- The damage ratio within Old Caracas was evaluated by different location of fault segment for

several cases by trial and error approach. The location of fault segment is shown in Figure S3-4.4.3

and the result of estimation is shown in Table S3-4.4.2.

- As a result, case F that gives the closest value to the historical study was adopted as the scenario.

- Figure S3-4.4.4 shows estimated seismic intensity by calculation, and Figure S3-4.4.5 shows degree

of damages evaluated from review of historical documents. Both map show the tendency of higher

seismic intensity in the northern part and good agreement.


The historical record demonstrates that seismic intensity distribution map in Caracas was between VI

to VII as shown in Figure S3-4.3.3. As such, only cracks in building were reported in Caracas as

described in Table S3-1.2.1. The estimated seismic intensity in this Study also indicates seismic

intensity between VI to VII.

S3 - 21

Table S3-4-4-1 Estimated Damage of the 1967 Earthquake Using Building Data in 1967

Estimated

Structure Floor Const. Year Status Damages Ratio (%)

RC 1-3F -'67 28,059 410 1.5

RC 4-8F -'67 6,000 121 2.0

RC 9F- -'67 1,000 32 3.2

Steel 3,460 10 0.3

Adobe Brick 70,763 1,377 1.9

Rural & Barrio Slope 20 deg.+ 17,611 445 2.5

Rural & Barrio Slope - 20 deg. 40,627 2,322 5.7

Total 167,520 4,715 2.8

Table S3-4.4.2 Comparison of Simulation Results by Various Cases

Ave. Max MinO 7.1 6.6 7.3 5.7C 7.1 7.8 8.5 7.0 27.6T 7.1 8.3 9.0 7.5 41.9F 7.1 8.6 9.4 7.9 56.9N 7.1 9.0 9.8 8.3 70.8

MMI in Old CaracasCase Mw

HeavilyDamagedRatio (%)

S3 - 22

Figure S3-4.1.1 Estimated Peak Ground Acceleration for the 1967 Earthquake



S3 - 23

Figure S3-4.1.4 Estimated Peak Ground Acceleration for Hypothetical Avila Earthquake

Figure S3-4.2.1 Estimated Peak Ground Velocity for the 1967 Earthquake


S3 - 24


Figure S3-4.2.4 Estimated Peak Ground Velocity for Hypothetical Avila Earthquake

Figure S3-4.3.1 Estimated Seismic Intensity for the 1967 Earthquake

S3 - 25

Figure S3-4.3.2 Estimated Seismic Intensity for the 1812 Earthquake

FIGURE S3-4.3.3 ESTIMATED SEISMIC INTENSITY FOR THE 1878 EARTHQUAKE

Figure S3-4.3.4 Estimated Seismic Intensity for Hypothetical Avila Earthquake

S3 - 26

Figure S3-4.4.1 Comparison between the Estimated Seismic Intensity for the 1967 Scenario Earthquake and the Surveyed Seismic Intensity during the 1967 Earthquake

(Fiedler, 1968)

Figure S3-4.4.2 Vulnerability Curve of Buildings in Old Caracas in 1812 Based on EMS.

0.00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.91.0

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Seismic Intensity (MMI)

Hea

vily

Dam

aged

Rat

io

S3 - 27

Figure S3-4.4.3 Possible Location of Fault segment of the 1812 Earthquake. Tip of Arrows Indicates the East End of the Segment, Corresponding to the

Case in Table S3-4.4.1.

Figure S3-4.4.4 Estimated Seismic Intensity Map in Old Caracas for Case F.

Figure S3-4.4.5 Evaluated Damage Degree from Historical Documents (Altez, 2004).

S3 - 28

CHAPTER 5. DISASTER PREVENTION FOR EARTHQUAKE DISASTER

5. 1 Structural Measures

To reduce human casualties due to possible earthquakes, structural measure to ensure building safety

is the most important factor. In addition, if it were successful to reduce building damage, it would

save much money otherwise spent for emergency response and recovery.

Generally, the effect of structural measures is permanent once installed, but more expensive than non-

structural measures. However, non-structural measures such as training or education needs to be well

maintained to be effective. To maximize prevention effort, structural measures and non-structural

measures should be optimized. Structural measures can be made by following components.

- For new buildings, enforcement of latest seismic code will be effective. However, it will take

time for old buildings in urban area to be replaced by new buildings, and the number of newly

built building is limited compared to existing ones.

- Many of existing buildings are built with old seismic code, prior to the seismic code, or without

engineering. Even though seismic code is revised, strength of existing buildings remains same.

They can be a big problem if a major earthquake happens; hence, they should be the main objects

of seismic strengthening.

- Among existing buildings, important facilities have priority for seismic strengthening, because

they should maintain their functions during the emergency.

- From the viewpoint of urban planning, consideration of open space and roads in disaster

prevention planning is important. Open space can be used as a park in normal times, then used as

an evacuation space during an emergency period; in addition, it can prevent fire spreading, once

fire brakes out.

- While availability of roads is critical to emergency response activities, narrower roads will be

blocked by abandoned cars or collapsed buildings. Therefore, preservation of main roads,

together with their assignation for emergency routing will be important to ensure effective

transportation in an emergency.

S3 - 29

5. 2 Non-Structural Measures

Non-structural measures (like training and education) are in general inexpensive, compared to

structural measures. However, they are not permanently effective if not exercised regularly. Since

many topics can be commonly used for both earthquake and sediment disaster, existing prevention

systems and practices for sediment disaster can be used for earthquake as well.

- Institutionalization

A legal framework that supports inter-institutional coordination should be made. Since various

organizations deal with the same topics, division of roles among them should be made by assigning

leading and support organizations. Possible funding source for disaster prevention is another factor to

consider.

- Information dissemination

Dissemination of information on natural disasters is the first step to let the public know and to become

motivated to prepare for disaster in the future. Possible contents of material are historical facts of

disaster or hazard and risk maps, with different way of representation and contents according to the

different users, such as research, administration, and public.

- Education & training

Education & training can be made for various audiences, such as administration staff, engineers, mass

media, students, and general public. Contents of training are evacuation, fire-extinction, search and

rescue, triage, emergency gathering and communication, desktop emergency response simulation.

Training can be exercised regularly on memorial day.

- Research

Basic scientific study, as well as post disaster scientific and engineering study are keys to develop

basic knowledge of disaster and to learn lessons from disasters. These lessons and knowledge can be

used to revise the material for education and training.

S3 - 30

CHAPTER 6. EARTHQUAKE DISASTER SCENARIO

6. 1 Introduction

Disaster involves the impact of extraordinary natural phenomena on human society. Although it is

not still possible to predict when and where earthquakes will occur, and the occurrence of an

earthquake itself is an unavoidable natural phenomenon, it is possible to reduce damage by various

efforts prior to earthquakes happening. In this chapter, interpretation of the disaster scenario and

estimated results are discussed to help evaluate the results, and then establish an effective disaster

prevention plan.

To revise the plan periodically to prepare for the earthquake disaster, it is worthwhile to review

disaster history in Caracas, and to know present conditions. Figure S3-6.1.1 shows the growth of

population and seismic intensity of major earthquakes in Caracas. As this figure shows, Caracas has

experienced major earthquakes at least once in every century, while the population has increased

exponentially.

Since earthquake is a natural phenomenon that is a result of ongoing tectonic movement, this

earthquake history suggests that a major earthquake will repeat one day in the future, and that an

earthquake with same seismic intensity will cause different impact. The simulation made in this study

is to estimate the extent of impact today from the recurrence of past event, based on the integration of

available knowledge today.

To compare different earthquake disasters, Table S3-6.1.1 shows a number of disasters and its human

impact in Venezuela during the period 1900 to 2001. As shown in the table, major earthquake occurs

less frequently, compared to meteorological disaster. As such, many people do not have real

experience, or they are less familiar with it, or have even forgotten about it. Therefore, the

importance of education for earthquakes is even higher than that for meteorological disaster, because

people do not learn by experience.

In addition, an earthquake has the following characteristics when compared to another type of

disaster, and thus a different strategy needs to be made to prepare for it.

- Earthquake happens without warning. Unlike meteorological disaster, early warning or prediction

is not practical to prevent earthquake disaster.

- Once a major earthquake happens, it will affect a wide area at once. The demand for emergency

attention from the public sometimes goes beyond the official capacities. Civic participation for

disaster prevention can be an important factor to cope with such a situation.

S3 - 31

- Major cause of death due to earthquake disaster is collapse of buildings. To ensure building

safety is the most important factor to reduce human casualties.

- The rescue effort from enormous number of collapsed buildings after a major earthquake is very

difficult to accomplish in practice. Thus, the efforts should focus not only on preparation for

better emergency response, but also on reduction of the damage itself.

6. 2 Interpretation of Scenarios

The estimated results are synthesized below, to illustrate overall situations under different cases.

(1) The 1967 earthquake scenario

As the tectonic movement along San Sebastian fault is high, earthquakes in the north of Caracas

have the higher possibility compared to the ones from other faults. Since earthquake with

smaller magnitude occurs more frequently than that with larger magnitude, the 1967 scenario

has higher possibility than the 1812 scenario compared in terms of magnitude.

In this scenario, the affected area would be in the northwestern part, due to the close distance to

the earthquake fault, and within the Valley due to the amplification of ground motion by

subsoil. However, some part of Caracas where buildings types are more vulnerable may be

highly affected in spite of the distance.

Table S3-6.2.1 shows a comparison of social conditions, as well as real damage in 1967 and

estimated damage in 2003 under social conditions in 2003. As seen in the table, larger damages

are expected under the same earthquake motion to the 1967 earthquake, due to the increase of

population and number of houses. Table S3-6.2.2 classifies the damage according to the

building types. Note that the damages in barrio area would be higher, because the number of

buildings in barrio increased and number of stories are higher than that in 1967. Major

damages in lifelines or infrastructures are not expected, as they were during the 1967

earthquake.

(2) The 1812 Earthquake Scenario

During the past five hundred years, Caracas has experienced this level of seismic intensity only

once. Although an earthquake of this level of impact would be less frequent than ones with

smaller impact, it should be noted that this actually happened in the past, and can be the worst

scenario if it happens again.

S3 - 32

Affected area is widely spread out over the whole Valley due to its large magnitude and close

distance to the fault. Although the quality of buildings today is different from that in 1812,

strong shaking over a wide area could cause extensive damage. Besides, today’s population

and urban area in Caracas is far larger than that of 1812. Damages in lifelines or infrastructures

are expected, as this will be more severe event than the 1967 scenario.

(3) The 1878 Earthquake Scenario

Affected area is limited due to the small magnitude and distance from the fault. The extent of

damage in Caracas due to the 1878 earthquake was minor. However, the southern part of

Caracas would suffer some damage, because the fault is located in the south of Caracas.

(4) Hypothetical Avila Earthquake Scenario

Although there is no record of major earthquake in the last five centuries, this scenario was

taken into consideration for a reference, because seismicity and fault study shows that this fault

is active. According to the fault study, the maximum probable magnitude from Avila fault is

6.8, considering that entire length of 50 km has fault ruptures. In this study, the magnitude for

hypothetical earthquake is set to be 6.0, assuming that it is generated from a segment of 20 km.

This would mean to consider an earthquake for shorter recurrence period, because earthquake

with smaller magnitude has higher possibility of occurrence than that with larger magnitude.

Northern part of Caracas would be severely affected due to the close distance to the fault. The

resulted damage distribution indicates that eastern part of Caracas also has some vulnerable

area, which was not apparent in case of 1967 or 1812 cases, due to the fault location.

6. 3 Lessons from Past Earthquakes

In addition to the simulation on hazard and damage estimation, there are some lessons to learn from

past earthquakes in Caracas as listed below. Although social conditions in the past are different from

that of today, they indicate some essential aspect of disaster and can be a good lesson for disaster

prevention. Detailed description of disaster due to the 1967 and the 1812 earthquakes are summarized

in Schael (1972), Grau (1969), and Altez (2004).

(1) The 1967 Earthquake

- The date and time of occurrence (Saturday, 8 pm) was favorable for less damage. Few people

were in offices, and people were still not in bed.

- Major cause of death was collapse of buildings.

- The electricity was not interrupted.

S3 - 33

- However, there were some problems, such as patients surged in hospital, and debris of

buildings remained in the airport for six months.

- No damage in barrio houses was reported, most of which were one or two stories high at that

time.

(2) The 1812 Earthquake

- Collapse of vulnerable buildings killed residents.

- Roads were closed due to collapsed buildings.

- Collapse of quarters reduced emergency response capacity.

- Water service was damaged, so that people came to Guaire River.

- Additional deaths by lack of medicine and food.

- Recovery was delayed due to unstable government.

6. 4 Disaster as a Chain Reaction

During disasters, one problem can cause another problem if not handled properly, or interact with

other problems. Accordingly, needs for emergency response can change according to the lapse of

time. Figure S3-6.4.1 shows possible chain of problems during earthquake disaster, which originate

from buildings, lifelines, and infrastructure.

As shown in this Figure, building damages, once happened, can cause many subsequent problems. In

other words, if buildings were safe enough, many response efforts, loss of life, cost for recovery and

reconstruction, would be significantly reduced. Since disaster affects every aspect of life, disaster

prevention should not be an issue of a single institution; rather, it should be multi-institutional

problem involving citizens.

6. 5 Proposal of Base Disaster Scenarios for Disaster Prevention Plan

Table S3-6.5.1 illustrates how to make priority among different scenarios from the viewpoint of

possibility of occurrence and degree of its impact. The scenario to be regarded as the top priority

should be the one with high possibility and high impact, and then high possibility with medium

impact, and medium possibility with high impact cases follow, and so on.

Regarding the goals of plan for different scenarios, the goal should be to minimize the overall damage

for a low to medium impact earthquake. For a high impact scenario, the prioritized items should be

protected. The terms of the plan for the scenario should be considered according to the possibility of

occurrence.

S3 - 34

In any case, having only governmental efforts would not be sufficient to attend to all the demands

under disaster situation, because when the disaster is large, so is the public demand for attention;

however, the capacity of public assistance can be reduced. For this reason, it is necessary to inform

the public of their vulnerability and also let them take necessary actions on their own.

For this study, four scenario earthquakes are compared with respect to possibility of occurrence and

the impact to the study area as shown in Table S3-6.5.2.

From the viewpoint of the slip rate of the fault, the earthquakes from San Sebastian fault have the

highest possibility, because they have the highest activities among other faults; La Victoria fault

comes next, and then comes Avila. When earthquake magnitude of each scenario is considered, 1967

has higher possibility than 1812, because an earthquake with smaller magnitude has higher possibility

to occur than the ones with larger magnitude. The possibility of Hypothetical Avila Earthquake

should be carefully interpreted, because the magnitude for this scenario is set to be the minimum

level, so that the return period of an earthquake with this magnitude size can be shorter than that of

the maximum probable magnitude.

From the viewpoint of earthquake impact, 1812 or Avila would have a higher impact than others,

because of its Magnitude or close distance, and then 1967 and 1878 follow after these cases.

Considering these factors, the relationship between disaster scenario, and terms and goals for

prevention plans is summarized in Table S3-6.5.3. An earthquake similar to 1967 is the scenario for

the first priority, and then those similar to 1812 should be achieved with longer time span. Since there

has no actual record, hypothetical Avila scenario is taken here as a reference for the plan.

S3 - 35

Table S3-6.1.1 Number of Disasters and its Human Impact in Venezuela (1900-2001)

Floods Earthquakes Slides Epidemics Wind Storms Total

Number of events 15 5 2 6 2 30

Number of deaths 30,232 437 126 192 108 31,095

Number of deaths per event 2,015 87 63 32 54 1,037

Number of affected 678,034 111,069 17,000 37,473 5,900 849,476

Number of affected per event 45,202 22,214 8,500 6,246 2,950 28,316

Source: Office of Foreign Disaster Assistance/ Université Catholique de Louvain

Table S3-6.2.1 Comparison of Social Conditions, Real Damage and Estimated Damage

Social Conditions As of 1967* As of 2003**

Population 1.8 million 2.7 million

Number of Buildings 180,000 314,657

Damages Real Damage in 1967*

Estimated Damage for the year 2003**

Number of Heavily Damaged Building 224 (4F-) 10,020

Number of Deaths 274 603

Number of Injuries N/A 4,510 Source: *: FUNVISIS (1972), **: JICA Study Team

Table S3-6.2.2 Estimated Building Damage by Building Types

Building Type Number of Building (A)

Number of Heavily damaged buildings (B) A/B (%) Per total

damage (%)

Urban -3F 66,295 849 1.3 8.5

Urban 4F- 17,234 169 1.0 1.7

Barrio & Rural 231,158 9,002 3.9 89.8

Total 314,657 10,020 3.2 100.0 Source: JICA Study Team

S3 - 36

Table S3-6.5.1 Prioritization of Scenarios

1 = Higher priority, 5 = Lower priority

Table S3-6.5.2 Possibility of Occurrence and its Impact

Scenario Fault system

Slip Rate of Fault Magnitude Possibility of

Occurrence

Estimated Maximum Seismic Intensity in

Caracas

Estimated Impact

1967 San Sebastian 5mm/year 6.6 High VIII Medium

1812 San Sebastian 5mm/year 7.1 Medium IX High

1878 La Victoria 0.55 mm/year 6.3 Medium VII Medium

Avila Avila - 0.4mm/year 6.0 Medium- Low IX High

Table S3-6.5.3 Disaster Scenarios for Disaster Prevention Plan

Disaster Plan

Scenario Possibility Impact Term Goal

1967 High Medium Short Minimize overall damage

1812 Medium High Middle-Long Secure prioritized items

Low Medium High Term for plan

Low 5 4 3 Long term

Medium 4 3 2 Middle term

High 3 2 1 Short term

Goal ofplan

Reduce impactto minimum.

Reduce impactto minimum.

Protectprioritized

Impact of earthquake disaster

Poss

ibili

ty o

fea

rthqu

ake

occu

rren

ce

S3 - 37

Source: Population from Fundacion Polar, Seismic Intensity from Grases (1990)

Figure S3-6.1.1 Population Growth and Seismic Intensity in Caracas

100

1,000

10,000

100,000

1,000,000

10,000,000

1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000

Year

Popu

lation in C

arac

as

1

3

5

7

9

11

Max

. Seis

mic

Inte

nsi

ty in C

arac

as

Population Seismic Intensity

S3 - 38

Figure S3-6.4.1 Possible Chain of Problems During Earthquake Disaster

Building Damage

Damaged building Collapased Building Socio-economicEmergency Inspection Debris removal Suspension of Detailed inspection Traffic control commercial activityRepair Debris transport Public securityDemolition Debris disposal Social disorderAsbestos from debris Redevelopmet planDebris transport ReconstructionDebris disposal

Death Injured RefugeesSearch & Rescue Triage Evacuation spaceIdentification Safety of hospital Water & foodSanitation Transportation SanitationBody burial Medical care Higene

Psychological care Temporaly shelterPermanent housing

Lifeline & Infrastructure Damage

Water Electricity TelephoneEmergency water Water suspension CommunicationFire fighting Telephone suspension suspensionSanitation Medical operation Saturated callsHigene Emergency operation Repair workMedical operation Traffic controlRepair work Repair work

Gas Bridge Hazardous facilitiesFire Human casualty FireExplosion Building damage ExplosionEvacuation Debris removal EvacuationService suspension Traffic control Environmental pollutionRepair work Reconstruction Repair work

S3 - 39

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

In this study, many researchers from FUNVISIS, IGVSB, CENAM, and INTEVEP, collaborated with

the Study Team for the development of the methodology throughout the whole process. The Study

Team would like to express its sincere gratitude to these researchers for their collaboration.

- General direction: Nuris Orihuela1)

- Coordination: Michael Schmitz 1)

- Scenario Earthquake: Michael Schmitz1), Nuris Orihuela1), Franck Audemard1),

- Julio Hernandez, Monika Sobiesiak1).

- Attenuation Law: Nuris Orihuela1), Julio Hernandez1), Michael Schmitz1), Ahmed Mebarki1)

- Selection of Accerelograms: Nuris Orihuela1), Julio Hernandez1)

- Soil Amplification: Julio Hernandez1), Salvador Safina5), Jose Parra4), Nuris Orihuela1),

Michael Schmitz1), Victor Rocabado1), Jorge Gonzalez1), Victor Cano1)

- Relationship between Seismic Intensity and Acceleration: Julio Hernandez1), Salvador

Safina5), Nuris Orihuela1), Jose Parra4).

- Building Inventory: Jesus Delgado3), Virginia Gimenez2)

- Fragility curves of buildings: Salvador Safina5), Julio Hernandez1),

- Jose Parra, Nuris Orihuela1), Michael Schmitz1)

- Estimation of Victims: Salvador Safina5), Julio Hernandez1), Nuris Orihuela1), Jose Parra4)

- Inspection of Buildings: Mariana Lotuffo1), Jorge Gonzalez1)

- Building Breaking Test: Julio Hernandez1), Salvador Safina5), Ricardo Bonilla6)

1) FUNVISIS, 6) IMME 2) IGVSB, 3) CENAMB, 4) INTEVEP, 5) SISMOMETRIC C.A.

S4

GEOTECHNICAL ENGINEERING

FOR EARTHQUAKE ANALYSIS

“Basic plan of prevention of disasters in Caracas –

Base for the measures of prevention”

Michael Schmitz

i



FINAL REPORT

SUPPORTING REPORT

S4

GEOTECHNICAL ENGINEERING FOR EARTHQUAKE ANALYSIS

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1 GEOLOGICAL AND GEOTECHNICAL DATA COLLECTION

1.1 Geological and Geomorphologic Data -----------------------------------------------S4-1

1.2 Geotechnical Data -----------------------------------------------------------------------S4-1

1.3 Geophysical Investigation Data -------------------------------------------------------S4-1

CHAPTER 2 DEVELOPMENT OF GROUND MODEL

2.1 Development of Ground Model for Analysis of Seismic Force Amplification -S4-8

2.2 Development of Ground Model for Analysis of Liquefaction ---------------------S4-11

CHAPTER 3 ESTIMATED LIQUEFACTION SUSCEPTIBILITY

i

S4

LIST OF TABLES

Table S4-1.1.1 Collection of Geological and Geomorphologic Information --------- S4-1 Table S4-1.2.1 Collection of Borehole Data --------------------------------------------- S4-2 Table S4-1.2.2 Collection of Laboratory Soil Test Data -------------------------------- S4-3 Table S4-1.2.3 Collection of Groundwater Data ----------------------------------------- S4-4 Table S4-1.3.1 Collection of Seismic Reflection Survey Data ------------------------- S4-4 Table S4-1-3.2 Collection of Gravity Survey Data -------------------------------------- S4-5 Table S4-1.3.3 Collection of Predominant Periods Study Data ------------------------ S4-5 Table S4-1.3.4 Collection of PS-Logging Study Data ---------------------------------- S4-6 Table S4-1.3.5 Collection of Existing Studies About Simulation of Amplification - S4-6 Table S4-1.3.6 Collection of Liquefaction Phenomena and Empirical Relation Between the Farthest Liquefied Site and the Earthquake Magnitude Data ------------------------------------------------------------ S4-7 Table S4-2.1.1 Densities of Soil and Rock ----------------------------------------------- S4-13 Table S4-3.1.1 The Liquefaction Susceptibility by PL Method ----------------------- S4-20

i

S4

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure S4-2.1.1 Outline of Development of Ground Model for Amplification of Seismic Force------------------------------------------------------------ S4-13 Figure S4-2.1.2 Precise Flow of Development of Ground Model for Amplification of Seismic Force------------------------------------------------------------ S4-14 Figure S4-2.1.3 The Degree of Compaction of Fills -------------------------------------- S4-15 Figure S4-2.1.4 Relation Between Vs and SPT Blow Numbers------------------------- S4-15 Figure S4-2.1.5 Normalized Shear Modulus ----------------------------------------------- S4-16 Figure S4-2.1.6 Dumping Factors ----------------------------------------------------------- S4-16 Figure S4-2.2.1 Flow of Estimation on Liquefaction Susceptibility -------------------- S4-17 Figure S4-3.1.1 Estimated Liquefaction Susceptibility for the 1967 Earthquake ----- S4-21 Figure S4-3.1.2 Estimated Liquefaction Susceptibility for the 1812 Earthquake ----- S4-21 Figure S4-3.1.3 Estimated Liquefaction Susceptibility for the 1878 Earthquake ----- S4-22 Figure S4-3.1.4 Estimated Liquefaction Susceptibility for Hypothetical Avila Earthquake ------------------------------------------------------------------ S4-22

S4 - 1

S-4 GEOTECHNICAL ENGINEERING FOR EARTHQUAKE ANALYSIS

CHAPTER 1. GEOLOGICAL AND GEOTECHNICAL DATA COLLECTION

1. 1 Geological and Geomorphologic Data

Geological and geomorphologic data were collected as shown in Table S4-1.1.1 ｈ

1. 2 Geotechnical Data

Geological and geomorphologic data were collected as shown in Tables S4-1.2.1 to S4-1.2.3.

1. 3 Geophysical Investigation Data

Geophysical investigation data were collected as Tables S4-1.3.1 to S4-1.3.6.

Table S4-1.1.1 Collection of Geological and Geomorphologic Information

Activity A Collection of Geological and geomorphologic information

A-1 To collect geological and geomorphologic maps

Objective:

To make it easy to understand subsurface soil and subsurface rock distribution and their structures.

To distinguish liquefaction susceptible area.

Results:

Here are two main contributions about the geomorphology in the Caracas valley.

Dr. Singer’s work (1977)1) was implemented especially on north-east part of the valley.

Dr. Matsuda’s work (2001)2) was implemented to the urbanized area of the Caracas valley. Here is another map by Lopez. V (1948). The map shows the direction of sediment movement and its distribution in the alluvial deposit in the Caracas valley.

S4 - 2

Table S4-1.2.1 Collection of Borehole Data

Activity B Collection of Geotechnical Data

B-1 To collect borehole data

Objective:

To know the soil profiles and properties in the study area for studying seismic hazards such as characteristics of amplification of seismic force and liquefaction phenomenon.

Results:

There is a project to build a borehole database. The project began in 2002 under Fondo Nacional de Ciencia, Tecnología e Innovación. (FONACIT). The project is not yet finished. However, data for about 287 boreholes were selected from the part of the database in urbanized area in the Caracas valley. (The study area was divided into meshes with areas 500 x 500 m for assessing seismic hazards. FUNVISIS has collected data from wells to clarify the depth of base rock.)

There are soil profiles published here as a result of soil investigation for construction of Metro.

Metro provided us with all soil investigation reports according to our request.

S4 - 3

Table S4-1.2.2 Collection of Laboratory Soil Test Data

Activity B Collection of Geotechnical data

B-2 To collect Laboratory soil test data

Objective:

To build up a geotechnical sedimentary deposit model of the study area for simulating amplification of seismic force.

To estimate liquefaction susceptibility.

Static and dynamic soil test data needed are:

* To do simulation of seismic force amplification

Wet density, Shear modulus (strain dependant curve), Dumping factor (strain dependant curve) for each sediment layer and weathered rock

* To do detail evaluation of liquefaction susceptibility

Mean grain diameter, 10 % grain diameter and Fine part content in grain size distribution curves, Plastic index.

Results:

The data shown below has been collected:

* To do simulation of seismic force amplification

We have collected laboratory test data in soil investigation reports on Metro.

However, we have not found enough information about Wet density, Shear modulus and Dumping factor.

* To do detail evaluation of liquefaction susceptibility

We have collected laboratory test data and their corresponding borehole data from Soil investigation reports for design and construction of Metro.

In addition, we have obtained a basic work by A. C. Alicia et al (1984)4) that clarifies the soil mechanical properties of upper part of sedimentary deposit in the Caracas valley.

S4 - 4

Table S4-1.2.3 Collection of Groundwater Data

Activity B Collection of Geotechnical data

B-3 To collect groundwater contour map

Objective:

To know the liquefaction susceptibility of sedimentary deposit in the Study area

Results:

Several varieties of groundwater table contour maps were produced in around 1950. At that time, groundwater level had already started to decline in some parts of the Caracas valley.

MINISTERIO DEL AMBIENTE Y DE LOS RECURSOS NATURALES (MARN) installed 80 wells for observation of groundwater table in Caracas valley by 1996, and observation data including data of Hydrocapital is in digital format and can be utilized using MOD-FLOW. The observations, however, were dormant for these several years due to the shortage of funding.

We obtained a groundwater contour map measured on 1 October, 2001 from MARN.

Table S4-1.3.1 Collection of Seismic Refraction Survey Data

Activity C Collection of geophysical investigation data

C-1 To collect Seismic reflection survey data

Objective:

To understand the base rock level distribution

To understand the simplified S-wave velocity profile of sediment layers above base rock

Results:

A seismic reflection survey in the Caracas valley was implemented by WESTON GEOPHYSICAL ENGENEERS INTERNATIONAL, INC., (1969)5) to understand the thickness of sedimentary deposit of the valley and obtain generalized bedrock contour map.

The effort to improve the bedrock contour map is continuing and the map is being improved by FUNVISIS (Kantak, (2001), Sanchez et.al, (2002), and Schmitz etal, (2003)) year after year.

S4 - 5

Table S4-1-3.2 Collection of Gravity Survey Data

Activity C Collection of Geophysical investigation data

C-2 To collect Gravity survey data

Objective:

To understand the base rock level distribution

Results:

A gravity study in Los Palos Grandes basin was implemented, which forms part of the seismic micro-zonation project of the Caracas city, supported by FUNVISIS.

The study result was reported by Sánchez. et.al., (2001)

Table S4-1.3.3 Collection of Predominant Periods Study Data


C-3 To collect predominant periods study (Micro-tremor measurements) data

Objective:

To understand the predominant periods and relative amplification of sedimentary deposits

Results:

In the Caracas valley, micro-tremor measurements were conducted systematically 7). In the first stage, measurement was implemented at an interval of 500 m.

Measurements at intervals of 250 m are on going by FUNVISIS.

The data was analyzed using the H/V spectral ratio or Nakamura method. A close relationship was derived for the sedimentary thickness and the associated Predominant period as evidenced at the two most important basins in San Bernardino and in Los Palos Grandes. The periods obtained vary between 0.1 and 2.1 s, while the relative amplification shows a factor between 4 and 6 times the average value for Caracas.

We have obtained basic results of micro-tremor measurement from FUNVISIS in GIS format and H/V spectral data from Professor Enomoto in Digital text format.

S4 - 6

Table S4-1.3.4 Collection of PS-Logging Study Data


C-5 To collect S-wave velocity data

Objective:

To understand the S-wave velocity for sedimentary deposits and rocks.

Results:

Average S-wave velocities of the surface layer were reported in the WESTON GEOPHYSICAL ENGENEERS INTERNATIONAL, INC report described previously. The measurement method used was the refraction method.

PS-logging surveys have being implemented along the Metro line by FUNVISIS（Campos et al., 2004）. However, the number is limited at present.

Table S4-1.3.5 Collection of Existing Studies About Simulation of Amplification

Activity D Collection of Existing studies about simulation of amplification

D-1 To collect Existing studies about simulation of amplification

Objective:

To study simulation results

To know what kind of dynamic soil properties have been used for reference in building simulation models

Results:

Seed, Idriss and Dezfulian studied the relationships between soil and building damage in the Caracas earthquake of July 29, 1967. In this work8), they have performed one-dimensional and two-dimensional simulations of ground motion.

At present, FUNVISIS are studying two-dimensional simulation of ground motion.

S4 - 7

Table S4-1.3.6 Collection of Liquefaction Phenomena and Empirical Relation Between the Farthest Liquefied Site and the Earthquake Magnitude Data

Activity E Collection of information about liquefaction phenomena and empirical relation between the farthest liquefied site and the earthquake magnitude

E-1 To collect information about liquefaction phenomena and empirical relation between the farthest liquefied site and the earthquake magnitude

Objective:

To know the historical fact of liquefaction in the Caracas valley

To know the empirical relation between the farthest liquefied site and the earthquake magnitude

Results:

Existing liquefaction phenomena

These are the study results of Acosta Luis and De Santis Feliciano9). They have studied the historical earthquakes occurred from 1530 to 1997, and summarized the occurrences of liquefaction phenomena. By this paper, there are no reports that show the occurrence of liquefaction in the Caracas valley.

Empirical relation between the farthest liquefied site and the earthquake magnitude

This is a study by Luz M. Rodriguez and others10). They studied historical earthquakes and liquefaction that have occurred or might have happened, and derived the equation below which shows the empirical relation between the farthest liquefied site and the earthquake magnitude.

M = 1.0739 ln(D) + 1.5722

Where M; earthquake magnitude

D; distance to the farthest liquefied site from the epicenter (km)

S4 - 8

CHAPTER 2. DEVELOPMENT OF GROUND MODEL

In chapter 2, the results of data collection are described. In this section, at first the key points of

existing condition clarified by collected data are described, then the method for developing a ground

model from the collected data are explained.

2. 1 Development of Ground Model for Analysis of Seismic Force Amplification

1) Summary of the information for developing a ground model on Amplification of Seismic

Force

One dimensional earthquake response analysis program, named “Shake” for analysis of

seismic force amplification is used. The analysis requires such geotechnical data as S-

wave velocities and their layer distribution, densities and shear modulus and dumping

factors for each layer.

Key points on existing condition about the necessary geotechnical data for plain area and

hill/mountainous area are summarized, respectively, below.

a) Plain area (Sedimentary deposit area)

- The deepest depth of collected borehole data with geotechnical information is about

30 m, and most of them are less than 20m in depth.

- The thickness of sedimentary deposit in the Caracas valley is described as a contour

map on GIS by FUNVISIS.

- Microtremor measurements were carried out at every 500 m in distance by

FUNVISIS and Japanese universities, and their average S-wave velocity map was

displayed by Schmitz et al, 2003. This data covers the large plain area in the Caracas

valley.

b) Hill/Mountainous area

- There was scarcely any geotechnical data obtained.

- A small number of micro-tremor measurement data was obtained covering a part of

the study area.

2) The Method of Development of a Ground Model

a) Plain Area (sedimentary deposit area)

S4 - 9

The ground model was developed by making the most of the data of H/V spectrum

curves and thickness of sedimentary deposit layers for each mesh with spacing of 500 m.

After that, the S-wave velocity structure for each mesh, which can reproduce H/V

spectrum obtained by micro-tremor measurement, was estimated using genetic algorithm

inversion by trial and error.

In the early development stage of the ground model, one layer, two layer and multi layer

ground models were compared with each other.

Two layer model means that it divides the sedimentary deposit into the upper layer with

Vs (S-wave velocity) lower than 400 m/s and the lower layer with Vs higher than 400

m/s. In the model, the value of 400 m/s is used to differentiate an upper layer from a

lower layer. This value is adapted from studies in Japan; the corresponding value in the

COVENIN 1756-2001 norm is 500 m/s.

Multi-layer model means that, in addition to two layer model, its lower layer is divided

into multi layers.

As a result of having compared how well each model matches with the H/V spectrum

data, we could not find any difference in matching between the two layer model and the

multi-layer one. The two layers model was adopted because of its simplicity.

The flow chart of development of the ground model for seismic force analysis described

above is shown in Figures S4-2.1.1 and S4-2.1.2.

In regard to the method of determining geotechnical properties such as density, shear

modulus and dumping factors, please refer to item 3) in this section.

b) Hill/Mountainous Area

The ground model was estimated from general geological information on weathered state

of rocks and H/V spectrum data, because there was no useful boring data.

We have not distinguished man made lands by cut and fill from natural ground this time

for the lack of concrete geotechnical information. This will be one of the important

issues for hazard and risk estimation so that this information shall be clarified and

included in future analysis by Venezuelan counterpart.

S4 - 10

Figure S4-2.1.3 shows the relationship between the thickness of fill and degree of

compaction. This figure was made from collected borehole data, and suggests that fills

lower than 10 m have the tendency of filled soil with relatively loose densities.

3) The Method of Determining Each Element of the Ground Model

a) Density of Soil and Rocks

Important information derived from gravity survey1 implemented at Los Palos Grandes is

available. The survey result shows that the densities of sedimentary deposit, whose

thickness is about 340 m, varied from 1.8 to 2.4 g/cm3. These values are almost the same

as or little larger than common sedimentary deposits in Japan. For that reason, we

adopted the values shown in Table S4-3.1.7.(Japan Road Assciation, 2002). (Sanchez et

al., 2001)

b) S-wave Velocities (Vs) of Upper Layer

S-wave velocities of upper layers was determined applying boring data in each mesh and

a relation between S-wave velocities and Blow numbers of Standard Penetration Test. In

case borehole data in the mesh of interest is lacking, nearest borehole datum in the mesh

was applied.

Applied relation is as follows:

Vs = 97*N0.314

Where: Vs: Shear wave velocity (m/second)

N: Number of blows by Standard Penetration Test

This relation was derived from PS logging data in Japan (Imai et al., 1977), using more

than one thousand data. We hope that such a relation will be developed and analysis will

be made in Venezuela in the near future.

Figure S4-2.1.4 shows the validity of applying this relation to the ground of Caracas.

The S-wave velocities of subsurface soils are obtained from refraction survey by Weston

Inc. and the corresponding average blow numbers of SPT for subsurface soils are

obtained from existing borehole data located near the site where refraction survey was

performed.

S4 - 11

c) Shear Modulus and Dumping Factor

Non-linear relations between shear modulus and dumping factor to upper layers (Vs <

400 m/s), and linear relation to lower layers (Vs > 400 m/s) to simulate actual behaviors

of ground motion during earthquakes was applied.

The relations2 applied at this time are shown in Figures S4-2.1.5 and S4-2.1.6, that were

developed in Japan (Imazu et al., 1986, Iwasaki et al., 1977a, Iwasaki et al., 1977b,

Iwasaki et al., 1978), because such relations could not be found in Venezuela. G0 in the

Figure S4-2.1.4 means shear modulus at strain level of 10-6 is calculated from the

equation below.

G0 = r/g*Vs2

Where: r: density (g/cm3)

g: gravitational constant (m/second2)

Vs: S-wave velocity (m/second)

It is well known that strain dependencies of the shear modulus and the dumping factor of

sand materials change according to their overburden pressure. Therefore different

relations according to each overburden pressure at every 5 m in depth were prepared as

shown in Figures S4-2.1.4 and S4-2.1.5.

2. 2 Development of Ground Model for Analysis of Liquefaction

There is no existing report about occurrence of liquefaction phenomena in the Caracas valley.

However, we can not deny the possibility of liquefaction absolutely, although sedimentary deposit of

the Caracas valley is rather harder than that of coastal areas. Liquefaction susceptibility in the

Caracas valley was estimated as a preventive measure.

1) Summary of information on existing condition for developing the ground model on

Liquefaction Susceptibility

There are various methods for estimation of liquefaction susceptibility in the world. For

example, various indexes are used for the estimation, such as Blow Number of Standard

Penetration Test (N), the range of particle size distribution, fine particle content, plastic

index, clay content and ground water level. In the case of Caracas, N values of the

S4 - 12

sedimentary deposit are generally high from the surface, so it is better to take particle

size distribution into consideration for more accurate estimation.

The key points on existing condition about the necessary geotechnical data are

summarized below.

- The database by FONACIT (Feliziani, 2003) includes geological description, N

values and texture of gravel, sand and fine content. It does not have each particle size

distribution curve corresponding to N value.

- The soil investigation report on Metro construction can make up the shortage of

information to some extent. However, the data location is limited to the site of Metro

lines, and the number of laboratory tests per borehole is small.

- There is a work that distinguishes particle size distribution of subsurface soil and

typifies it by regional groups.

2) The method of development of the ground model for the estimation of liquefaction based

on existing condition

Existing researches on the liquefaction phenomena in the world have made it clear that

the distribution of liquefied soil limited to about 20 m depth and the ground where the

groundwater table is higher than GL-10m.

Standing on this result of existing studies, the study area for liquefaction estimation is

limited to the meshes where groundwater tables are higher than GL-10m using

observation results by MARN.

Borehole data and particle size distribution curve data in soil investigation report of

Metro are used, if they are located in the mesh. When the mesh doesn’t have any data of

Metro and there is other data located near the mesh, such data were applied. When we

don’t have any data related to Metro, the boring database of FONACIT and typified

particle size distribution curves are applied.

Concrete applied data items for every borehole are: soil type, N value, mean grain size

diameter, 10% grain size, fine particle content, clay content, and plastic index.

The flow chart for estimation of liquefaction susceptibility is shown in Figure S4-2.2.1.

S4 - 13

Table S4-2.1.1 Densities of Soil and Rock

Soil/Rock type Density (g/cm3)

Clay 1.8

Sand 2.0

Gravel 2.1

Hard deposit 2.1

Base Rock 2.6 Source: Japan Road Association, 2002

Sedimentary deposit area Hill side and Mountainous area

Determine the layers with Vslower than 400 m/s

using Boring database

2 layer model Estimation of Vs of the layerswith Vs higher than 400m/s

under the surface layersby using H/V spectra data

Ground modelfor sedimentary deposit

area

NaturalGround

Cut & Fill

2 layer model Estimation of Vs

by using H/V spectra dataand geological information

Neglect

Ground model for analysis ofamplification of seismic

force

Ground modelfor Hill side and

Mountainous area

Figure S4-2.1.1 Outline of Development of Ground Model for Amplification of Seismic Force

Com

preh

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on

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surf

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S4 - 14

S4 - 15

Properties of Fil

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

SPT (Blow Numbers)

Thic

kness

of

Fill (

m)

clay

gravel

sand

Figure S4-2.1.3 The Degree of Compaction of Fills

Relation Vs - SPT blow

10

100

1000

1 10 100

N (SPT blow No.)

Vs

(m/se

c)

Vs=97.0N^0.314

Figure S4-2.1.4 Relation Between Vs and SPT Blow Numbers

S4 - 16

G/Go - Strain curve

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

1.E-06 1.E-05 1.E-04 1.E-03 1.E-02

g

G/G

0

Clay

Gravel

Sand 1

Sand 2

Sand 3

Sand 4

Sand 5

Sand 6

Linear

Figure S4-2.1.5 Normalized Shear Modulus

h - Strain curve

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

1.E-06 1.E-05 1.E-04 1.E-03 1.E-02

g

h

Clay

Gravel

Sand 1

Sand 2

Sand 3

Sand 4

Sand 5

Sand 6

Linear

Figure S4-2.1.6 Dumping Factors

S4 - 17

Liquefaction analysis forsedimantary deposit in Caracas

valley

Limit the estimation area with groundwatertable shallower than GL-10m.

To collect the necessary geotechnical data within 20m in depth

* SPT blow numbers (N value) * Grain size: 50 % particle size

10 % particle size * Fine particle content (%) * Clay content (%) * Plastic Index

Estimation of Susceptibility ofliquefaction

Figure S4-2.2.1 Flow of Estimation on Liquefaction Susceptibility

S4 - 18

CHAPTER 3. ESTIMATED LIQUEFACTION SUSCEPTIBILITY

The liquefaction susceptibility for individual layers is analyzed by the FL method. The whole

liquefaction susceptibility at the analyzed point is evaluated by the PL method based upon the results

of the FL method.

FL Method (Japanese Design Specification of Highway Bridge, revised 1996)

Ground condition to be evaluated

- Quaternary sandy soil from ground surface to depth of 20 m

- Groundwater table less than 10 m from ground surface

FL = R/L

FL: liquefaction resistance factor

FL≤ 1.0 : Judged as liquefied

FL>1.0 : Judged as not liquefied R: cyclic shear strength at effective overburden pressure

R = Cw × RL Cw: correlation coefficient for earthquake type

Type 1 earthquake (plate boundary type, large scale)

Cw = 1.0

Type 2 earthquake (inland type)

Cw = 1.0 (RL ≤ 1.0)

= 3.3RL+0.67 (0.1<RL ≤ 0.4) = 2.0 (0.4 < RL)

RL: cyclic resistance ratio obtained by laboratory test

RL = 0.0882 (Na/1.7)0.5 (Na<14)

= 0.0882 (Na/1.7)0.5 + 1.6×10-6 (Na-14)4.5 (14 ≤Na) Sandy Soil

Na = c1 N + c2

c1 = 1 (0% ≤ Fc < 10%),

= (Fc + 40) /50 (10% ≤ Fc < 60%)

= Fc/20 –1 (60% ≤ Fc)

c2 = 0 (0% ≤ Fc < 10%)

= (F-10)/18 (10% ≤ Fc) Fc : fine contents

Gravelly Soil

S4 - 19

Na = {1-0.36log10(D50/2.0)}Nl

N: SPT blow count

Na: N value correlated for grain size

Nl : 1.7N/(σv’+0.7) D50: grain diameter of 50% passing (mm)

L: shear stress to the effective overburden pressure

L = α / g × σv/σv’ × rd rd : stress reduction factor

rd = 1.0 – 0.015x

x : depth in meters below the ground surface

α: peak ground acceleration (gal) g: acceleration of gravity (= 980 gal)

σv: total overburden pressure

σv’: effective overburden pressure PL Method (Iwasaki et al. 1980)

∫ ⋅=20

0L dz)z(wFP

15 < PL Very high potential

5 < PL ≤ 15 Relatively high potential

0 < PL ≤ 5 Relatively low potential PL = 0 Very low potential

F = 1-FL (FL<1.0)

= 0 (FL≥1.0) w(z) = 10 - 0.5z

PL: liquefaction potential index

FL: liquefaction resistance factor

w(z): weight function for depth

z: depth in meters below the ground surface

The results are summarized in Table S4-3.1.1. Maps of estimated liquefaction susceptibility for

scenario earthquakes are shown in Figures S4-3.1.1 to S4-3.1.4.

The results of liquefaction analysis are described as follows:

- In general, the sedimentary deposits in Caracas valley have enough strength to resist seismic force

and keep stable state for liquefaction phenomenon.

- The areas which have high liquefaction susceptibility are limited to several meshes even against

strong earthquakes such as 1812 and Avila.

S4 - 20

Table S4-3.1.1 The liquefaction Susceptibility by PL Method

PL ValueEarthquake

Earthquake typeMeshCord Type II Type II Type II Type II

C48R20 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0C49R20 0.0 1.4 0.0 1.7C50R12 0.0 0.4 0.0 3.4C51R12 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0C52R17 5.4 15.9 3.0 12.1C53R16 0.0 0.5 0.0 0.0C53R17 12.6 31.3 11.2 22.7C54R16 0.0 1.2 0.0 0.0C54R17 0.0 9.8 0.0 6.0C55R16 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0C55R26 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0C55R27 0.0 6.7 0.0 3.6C55R28 0.0 6.3 0.0 2.9C55R29 0.0 5.8 0.0 2.2C56R17 2.8 20.2 1.0 15.0C56R27 0.0 6.4 0.0 3.9C56R28 0.0 6.0 0.0 3.2C57R24 0.0 1.4 0.0 1.1C58R24 0.0 1.3 0.0 1.2C58R25 0.0 1.3 0.0 1.1C58R26 0.0 1.2 0.0 1.0C59R24 0.0 1.3 0.0 1.2C60R23 0.0 3.2 0.0 4.2C78R19 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.0

Liquefaction Potenstial CriterionVery high 15<PL

Reralitively high 5<PL<=15Reralitively low 0<PL<=5

Very low PL=0

Plate boundary type Type IInland type Type II

18781967 1812 Avila

S4 - 21

Figure S4-3.1.1 Estimated Liquefaction Susceptibility for the 1967 Earthquake


S4 - 22


Figure S4-3.1.4 Estimated Liquefaction Susceptibility for Hypothetical Avila Earthquake

S5

BUILDING DATABASE

“The communitarian participation is

the best antidote against the occurrence of disasters”

Marielba Guillen

i



FINAL REPORT

SUPPORTING REPORT

S5

BUILDING DATABASE

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER 1 REVIEW OF COLLECTED DATA

CHAPTER 2 DEVELOPMENT OF BUILDING DATABASE

2.1 Basic Concept ----------------------------------------------------------------------------S5-3 2.2 Urbanized Area---------------------------------------------------------------------------S5-4 2.3 Barrio and Rural Area -------------------------------------------------------------------S5-5 2.4 Information for Human Damage Estimation -----------------------------------------S5-5

CHAPTER 3 METHOD OF DAMAGE ESTIMATION

3.1 Building Damage --------------------------------------------------------------------------------S5-20 3.2 Human Casualties -------------------------------------------------------------------------------S5-22 3.3 Result of Damage Estimation ----------------------------------------------------------------S5-25

i

S5

LIST OF TABLES

Table S5-1.1.1 Summary of Collected Data ---------------------------------------------- S5-2 Table S5-2.1.1 The Characteristics of the Urbanized Area and the “Barrio and Rural Area”--------------------------------------------------- S5-6 Table S5-2.1.2 Category of Building Inventory and Damage Function in the Barrio and Rural Area ---------------------------------------------- S5-6 Table S5-2.2.1 The Field Sample Survey Result (Summarized by Type, Story and Constructed Year)------------------ S5-7 Table S5-2.2.2 The Field Sample Survey Result (Summarized by Proposed Category of the Damage Function) ------ S5-7 Table S5-2.2.3 Counted Building Number of Analyzed Vulnerability Unit ---------- S5-8 Table S5-2.2.4 The Result of Field Sampling Survey (Summarized by Category of Damage Estimation and AVU, Number of Sample)---------------- S5-9 Table S5-2.2.5 The Result of Field Sampling Survey (Summarized by Category of Damage Estimation and AVU, Ratio %)----------------------------- S5-9 Table S5-2.3.1 Number of Buildings in the Barrios and Rural Area in the 1/5,000 Working Map Area ---------------------------------------------- S5-10 Table S5-2.3.2 Number of Buildings in the Barrios and Rural Area out of the 1/5,000 Working Map Area -------------------------------------- S5-10 Table S5-2.4.1 Summary of Information Used for Human Damage Estimation ---- S5-10 Table S5-2.4.2 Number of Houses and Persons who Dwell in it ---------------------- S5-10 Table S5-3.1.1 Building Categories of Damage Function Used in this Study ------- S5-26 Table S5-3.1.2 The Weight Factor of Vulnerability Class for the Structural Typology ------------------------------------------------------- S5-26 Table S5-3.2.1 Casualties and Building Damage Statistics of the Cariaco Earthquake -------------------------------------------------------- S5-27 Table S5-3.2.2 Number of Deaths and Number of Heavily Damaged Buildings of Quindio Earthquake 1999, Colombia -------------------------------- S5-27 Table S5-3.2.3 Number of Deaths and Number of Injured of Quindio Earthquake 1999, Colombia ------------------------------------------------------------ S5-28 Table S5-3.3.1 Summary of the Estimated Number of Buildings --------------------- S5-28

ii

Table S5-3.3.2 Summary of the Damage Estimation Results by Case ---------------- S5-29 Table S5-3.3.3 Damage Estimation Result for Case 1967 ------------------------------ S5-30 Table S5-3.3.4 Damage Estimation Result for Case 1812 ------------------------------ S5-31 Table S5-3.3.5 Damage Estimation Result for Case 1878 ------------------------------ S5-32 Table S5-3.3.6 Damage Estimation Result for Case Avila ----------------------------- S5-33

i

S5

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure S5-2.1.1 Concept of Inventory Establishment------------------------------------- S5-11 Figure S5-2.2.1 Flow Chart of Building Inventory for Urbanized Area---------------- S5-12 Figure S5-2.2.2 Building Survey Form ----------------------------------------------------- S5-13 Figure S5-2.2.3 Physical Analyzed Vulnerability Unit (AVU)-------------------------- S5-14 Figure S5-2.2.4 Field Survey Result (Summarized by Structure Type and AVU)---- S5-15 Figure S5-2.2.5 Field Survey Result (Summarized by Story and AVU) --------------- S5-15 Figure S5-2.2.6 Field Survey Result (Summarized by Constructed Year and AVU)- S5-15 Figure S5-2.3.1 Flowchart of Building Inventory for Barrio and Rural Area---------- S5-16 Figure S5-2.3.2 Area of Working Map (Scale 1/5 000) ---------------------------------- S5-17 Figure S5-2.3.3 Slope > 20 Degree Area --------------------------------------------------- S5-18 Figure S5-2.4.1 Census Data of Person / Family ------------------------------------------ S5-19 Figure S5-3.1.1 The Damage Function for Damage Level 4 / EMS-98 ---------------- S5-34 Figure S5-3.1.2 Vulnerability Classes of Structures Used in EMS-98 ----------------- S5-34 Figure S5-3.1.3 The Classification of Damage Proposed by European Micro-Seismic Scale ------------------------------------------------------- S5-35 Figure S5-3.1.4 Building Damage Function Used in this Study------------------------- S5-36 Figure S5-3.2.1 Flowchart of Human Casualties Estimation ---------------------------- S5-36 Figure S5-3.2.2 Relation Between Number of Heavily Damaged Buildings and Number of Deaths of Cariaco Earthquake (1997)----------------- S5-37 Figure S5-3.2.3 Relation Between Heavily Damaged Buildings and Death Toll of Quindio Earthquake (1999, Colombia)------------------------------- S5-37 Figure S5-3.2.4 The Summary of the World Data----------------------------------------- S5-38 Figure S5-3.2.5 Relationship Between Dead and Injured of Quindio Earthquake (1999, Colombia)----------------------------------------------------------- S5-39

S5 - 1

S-5 BUILDINGS DATABASE

CHAPTER 1. REVIEW OF COLLECTED DATA

Table S5-1.1.1 shows the summary of the referred document and data for the seismic risk analysis building in this report.

S5 - 2

Tabl

e S5

-1.1

.1

Sum

mar

y of

Col

lect

ed D

ata

Sour

ce: T

he JI

CA

Stu

dy T

eam

T

itle

Purp

ose

Typ

eY

ear

Sour

ceG

enen

alTh

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mbe

r of b

uild

ings

Are

a of

man

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The

anal

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uni

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S5 - 3

CHAPTER 2. DEVELOPMENT OF BUILDING DATABASE

2. 1 Basic Concept

A building inventory was carried out by the Study Team to clarify the distribution of buildings in the study area. The concept of the development of building database is shown in Figure S5-2.1.1.

The study area is divided into two areas: the first one is the urbanized area, and the other is the barrio and rural area. In this study, building information in these two areas are analyzed by the methodology shown in Table S5-2.1.1.

Regarding the urbanized area, the unit area is the block. The GIS data of the block was provided by the secretary of urban planning and environment, Metropolitan District of Caracas (ADMC). In a block there are several types of buildings. Therefore, the number of buildings of each category in a block should be estimated. To know the number of building categories, a field sampling survey was conducted. .

The result of the survey is summarized to estimate the ratio of building categories in a block. GIS data of 1/5,000 working map contains the shape of buildings. The 1/5,000 working map covers the whole of the urbanized area. The total number of buildings is counted based on the 1/5,000 working map data. The number of a building type in a block is estimated by multiplying the total building number of the block by the ratio of the building type.

Regarding the barrio and rural area, the unit is an area which contains aggregated existing buildings. The area is sub-divided by the 500 m mesh used for seismic hazard analysis. Base GIS barrio data is provided by the Secretary of Urban Planning and Environment, AMDC. The mountain side boundary was updated according to 1/5,000 working map or aerial photos taken in 2003. The 1/5,000 working map does not cover the whole of the barrio and rural area. The lack of 1/5,000 working map is compensated for by the aerial photo.

The building type of barrio and rural area is relatively simple. We assume that a barrio or rural area contains only one type of low residential building. The residential buildings in the barrio and rural area are classified as informal buildings for the damage estimation work.

A lot of barrios and rural areas are located on steep slopes. It is essentially dangerous during an earthquake. Therefore, special damage function was applied for buildings on steep slopes. Therefore, barrio and rural areas are divided into two types: one is steep slope area and the other is gentle slope area. The threshold value is 20 degrees. This threshold value was decided after the discussion between FUNVISIS and the JICA Study Team.

S5 - 4

There are a lot of factories in the rural area. The category of damage function “STEEL 1– 3F” is applied for the factories in the rural area. There are many high residential buildings in the rural area. The category of “RC-MOMENT FRAME 9-F ’82-” is applied for high residential buildings in the rural area. The number of buildings in this area was counted by GIS based on the base map or aerial photos.

The correspondence between building inventory and the damage function for the barrio and rural area, that were discussed and agreed with FUNVISIS, are summarized in Table S5-2.1.2.

2. 2 Urbanized Area

Figure S5-2.2.1 shows the flowchart of building inventory for the urbanized area. A field sampling survey was conducted to estimate the ratio of each category in a block. The survey items were decided based on opinion of several experts during the discussion between FUNVISIS and JICA Study Team. The survey form is shown in Figure S5-2.2.2. The number of samples was decided based on consideration of the accuracy, term and cost. The number of the samples is 1000. It is an orthodox value for social sampling survey. The sampled buildings were selected randomly. The survey was conducted from July to middle of September, 2003.

Table S5-2.2.1 shows the field sampling survey result summarized by type, stories and constructed year. Since adobe and brick structures higher than 4 stories are limited, they were merged into the same category in damage function as shown in Table S5-2.2.2.

Analyzed Vulnerability Unit (AVU) is introduced to classify the urbanized area. AVU are sub-areas of the urbanized area. AVU was proposed by Dr. Virginia Jimenez (IGVSB) and Prof. Jesus Delgado (CENAMB, UCV). The urbanized area is divided into 30 sub-areas. We consider that inside an AVU, the characteristics of buildings are almost all similar. The field sampling survey result is summarized by AVU. The same ratio is applied for all blocks in an AVU.

The concept of AVU also introduced for social vulnerability study. The areas of AVU for social vulnerability study are almost all the same. Figure S5-2.2.3 shows the AVU for physical vulnerability study (physical AVU). Table S5-2.2.3 shows the number of buildings in each AVU.

Table S5-2.2.4 shows the result of field sampling survey summarized by the categories of damage estimation and AVU by number of samples.

Table S5-2.2.5 shows the result of field sampling survey summarized by the categories of damage estimation and AVU by %. Figure S5-2.2.4 shows the field survey result summarized by structure type and AVU. Figure S5-2.2.5 shows the field survey result summarized by stories and AVU. Figure S5-2.2.6 shows the field survey result summarized by constructed year and AVU.

S5 - 5

2. 3 Barrio and Rural Area

Figure S5-2.3.1 shows the flow chart of building inventory for the barrio and rural area. The barrio and rural area is divided into two types: one is covered by 1/5,000 working map and the other one not covered by the 1/5,000 working map. The area covered by the 1/5,000 working map is shown in Figure S5-2.3.2. The barrio and rural area is also divided into two types: in one area, the slope is steeper than 20 degrees; the other one is the area where slop is gentler than 20 degrees. The area where slope is steeper than 20 degrees is shown in Figure S5-2.3.3.

The number of buildings of the barrio and rural area in the 1/5,000 working map area is summarized in Table S5-2.3.1. The number of buildings of the barrio and rural area out of the 1/5,000 working map area is summarized in Table S5-2.3.2.

2. 4 Information for Human Damage Estimation

Table S5-2.4.1 shows the summary of required information for human damage estimation.

For RC Middle & High rise buildings, the relationship between death toll and number of heavily damaged buildings was derived using the number of heavily damaged buildings.

For the low rise buildings, the number of persons per house is required. The damaged function is derived based on statistics data of Quindio earthquake (1999, Colombia). The relationship between the number of deaths and heavily damaged buildings depends on the number of persons in a building. Therefore, the figure, which is calculated by the damage function, should be corrected by number of persons per house.

The Census 2001 data, number of persons per house in the study area, was provided by INE. Figure S5-2.4.1 shows the Census 2001 data. The data is summarized in Table S5-2.4.2. The figure is employed for the human casualty estimation.

S5 - 6

Table S5-2.1.1 The Characteristics of the Urbanized Area and the

“Barrio and Rural Area”


Table S5-2.1.2 Category of Building Inventory and Damage Function

in the Barrio and Rural Area

BUILDING INVENTORY DAMAGE FUNCTION

Area Slope N° Structure Stories Const. year Slope

less 20 degree 16 Informal (Barrio) N.A. N.A. less 20 degreeBarrios

more 20 degree 18 Informal (Barrio) N.A. N.A. more 20 degree

less 20 degree 15 Informal (Rural) N.A. N.A. less 20 degreeRural low building

more 20 degree 17 Informal (Rural) N.A. N.A. more 20 degree

Rural Factory N.A. 12 Steel 1-2 F N.A. N.A.

Rural high building N.A. 7 RC Moment Frame 9 F- 82- N.A.

The Study AreaUrbanized area Barrio area & Rural Area

Unit Block Areas, which content aggregated existing buildings.

GIS data Obtained Obtained Created by the Study Team

Source Secretary of urban planning and environment, AMDC Aerial photos (2002)

Building Category in a unit Several categories Single category

Field survey Done1/5000 working map 1/5,000 working map covers the whole area

No

S5 - 7

Tabl

e S5

-2.2

.1

The

Fiel

d Sa

mpl

e Su

rvey

Res

ult

Tabl

e S5

-2.2

.2

The

Fiel

d Sa

mpl

e Su

rvey

Res

ult

(Sum

mar

ized

by

Type

, Sto

ry a

nd C

onst

ruct

ed Y

ear)

(Sum

mar

ized

by

Prop

osed

Cat

egor

y of

the

Dam

age

Func

tion)

Cat

egor

yR

atio

%C

ateg

ory

Rat

io %

Cat

egor

yR

atio

%C

ateg

ory

Rat

io %

Cat

egor

yR

atio

%Ad

obe

1-3

0.5%

- '67

0.5%

5- '

6712

.8%

128

'68

- '82

0.4%

44-

80.

5%- '

670.

5%5

- '67

29.8

%29

9- '

6729

.8%

299

'68

- '82

28.4

%28

5'6

8 - '

8228

.4%

285

'83

-6.

9%69

'83

-6.

9%69

- '67

5.9%

59- '

675.

9%59

'68

- '82

4.6%

46'6

8 - '

824.

6%46

'83

-1.

7%17

'83

-1.

7%17

- '67

1.1%

11- '

671.

1%11

'68

- '82

2.5%

25'6

8 - '

822.

5%25

'83

-1.

1%11

'83

-1.

1%11

- '67

1.0%

10'6

8 - '

821.

6%16

'83

-1.

3%13

Sum

---

100.

0%--

-10

0.0%

1003

Sum

100.

0%--

-10

0.0%

---

96.1

%10

03

1-3

4-8

Type

MASONRYBRICK

Ste

el--

---

-

Year

3.9%

65.1

%

Ste

el1-

3

13.2

%

65.1

%

12.2

%

4.7%

3.9%

Bric

k

1-3

4-8

RC

9-

Stor

yTy

pe

1-3

Year

nos

12.2

%

9-4.

7%

14.2

%

RC - MOMENT FRAME

1-3

nos

Stor

y

39

14.2

%

82.0

%

142

- '67

14.2

%

3.9%

1-3

S5 - 8

Table S5-2.2.3 Counted Building Number of Analyzed Vulnerability Unit

Source: The JICA Study Team

PhysicalAVU

SocialAVU Location Number of

Buildings

0 N.A. ---- ---

1 1 Altamira 3.535

2 2 Caracas Country Club 895

3 3 Candelaria 10.813

4 4 California 2.989

5 5 El Bosque 2.937

6 6 Bello Campo 7.059

7 7 La Urbina 2.267

8 2 San Bernardino & El Rosario 3.598

9 N.A. Los Ruices 2.457

10 12 Catia & Sarria 10.957

11 8 23 de Enero & Pedoro Camejo 2.694

12 N.A. A.V. Coromoto 166

101 12 Gramoven 9.620

102 8 La Silsa 187103 10 Artigas 5.903

104 3 San Juan 1.320

105 2 Paraiso & Washington 2.457

106 13 La Vega 2.788

107 7 Montalban 1.116

108 12 Antimano 469

109 9 SAMBIL 3.081

110 3 Los Carmenes 7.382

111 9 Coche & EL Valle 3.656

112 10 & 5 Las Acacias & Santa Monica 4.877

113 4 El Llanito 3.223

114 7 Palo Verde 769

115 7 Terrazas del avila 177

116 N.A. Miranda 484

201 N.A. Petare 361

98.237

In A

vila

pro

ject

are

aO

ut o

f Avi

la p

roje

ct a

rea

Total

S5 - 9

Tabl

e S5

-2.2

.4

The

Res

ult o

f Fie

ld S

ampl

ing

Surv

ey (S

umm

ariz

ed b

y C

ateg

ory

of D

amag

e Es

timat

ion

and

AVU

, Num

ber o

f Sa

mpl

e)

Tabl

e S5

-2.2

.5

The

Res

ult o

f Fie

ld S

ampl

ing

Surv

ey (S

umm

ariz

ed b

y C

ateg

ory

of D

amag

e Es

timat

ion

and

AVU

, Rat

io %

)

N

oTy

peSt

ory

Year

nos

12

34

56

78

910

1112

101

102

103

104

105

106

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

11-

3F

- '67

299

13

161

72

221

14

431

640

10

16

81

12

81

502

15

21-

3'6

8 - '

8228

51

81

121

03

2110

76

276

401

73

74

32

2722

11

263

1-3

'83

-6

92

102

45

163

93

12

22

24

44-

8F

- '67

59

210

77

14

11

17

11

16

26

15

4-8

'68

- '82

46

45

13

12

14

22

31

12

32

53

16

4-8

'83

-1

73

12

12

11

12

79F

-- '

671

16

11

21

89-

'68

- '82

25

24

11

11

12

11

22

11

21

19

9-'8

3 -

11

13

11

314

Ste

el1-

3F

39

10

52

14

13

52

12

00

71

00

03

00

00

00

16M

sona

ry14

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344

01

010

25

118

20

175

51

00

10

011

05

00

100

33

57

113

30

28

7121

40

2698

236

118

16

49

162

12

98

11

798

364

431

10

RC

Tota

l

N

oTy

peSt

ory

Year

nos

12

34

56

78

910

1112

101

102

103

104

105

106

107

108

109

110

111

112

113

114

11-

3F- '

6729

92.

9%

42.9

%14

.2%

56.7

%7.

1%

31.0

%4.

8%35

.0%

15.4

%31

.6%

26.1

%0.

0%33

.9%

62.5

%32

.7%

50.0

%52

.4%

96.6

%0.

0%

9.1%

0.0

%51

.0%

5.6%

34.1

%0.

0%

0.0%

21

-3'6

8 - '

82

285

51.4

%14

.3%

10.6

%33

.3%

10.7

%29

.6%

47.6

%17

.5%

23.1

%27

.6%

26.1

%0.

0%33

.9%

0.0%

34.7

%18

.8%

33.3

%0.

0%

50.0

%27

.3%

28.6

%27

.6%

61.1

%25

.0%

83.9

%0.

0%3

1-3

'83

-6

95.

7%

0.0

%8.

8%

0.0%

0.0

%2.

8%

0.0%

10.0

%19

.2%

16.3

%13

.0%

0.0%

7.6%

0.0%

0.0

%0.

0%

0.0%

0.0

%0.

0%

27.3

%14

.3%

2.0

%5.

6%4.

5%

6.5

%40

.0%

44-

8F- '

675

95.

7%

0.0

%8.

8%

0.0%

25.0

%9.

9%

4.8%

10.0

%3.

8%

1.0

%4.

3%0.

0%5.

9%6.

3%0.

0%

0.0

%0.

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4%

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6.1

%5.

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.6%

3.2

%0.

0%5

4-8

'68

- '8

24

611

.4%

0.0

%4.

4%

3.3%

10.7

%1.

4%

9.5%

2.5

%15

.4%

0.0

%8.

7%0.

0%1.

7%0.

0%6.

1%

6.3

%4.

8%0.

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.9%

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.9%

6.8

%3.

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64

-8'8

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17

8.6

%0.

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0.9

%0.

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2.8

%0.

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5%

0.0

%2.

0%

0.0%

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0.8%

0.0%

0.0

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0%

0.0%

0.0

%0.

0%

0.0%

0.0

%0.

0%

0.0%

2.3

%3.

2%

20.0

%7

9F-

- '67

11

0.0

%0.

0%

5.3

%0.

0%0.

0%

1.4

%0.

0%0.

0%

0.0

%0.

0%

4.3%

33.3

%0.

8%0.

0%0.

0%

0.0

%0.

0%0.

0%

0.0

%0.

0%0.

0%

0.0

%0.

0%0.

0%

0.0

%0.

0%8

9-'6

8 - '

82

25

5.7

%0.

0%

3.5

%0.

0%3.

6%

1.4

%4.

8%0.

0%

0.0

%1.

0%

4.3%

33.3

%0.

8%0.

0%2.

0%

12.5

%9.

5%0.

0%

12.5

%0.

0%14

.3%

0.0

%5.

6%2.

3%

0.0

%10

.0%

99-

'83

-1

10.

0%

0.0

%0.

0%

0.0%

3.6

%0.

0%

14.3

%2.

5%

0.0

%0.

0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0%

0.0

%0.

0%

0.0%

0.0

%0.

0%

0.0%

0.0

%0.

0%

2.8%

0.0

%0.

0%

30.0

%14

Ste

el1-

3F3

92.

9%

0.0

%4.

4%

6.7

%3.

6%5.

6%

4.8

%7.

5%19

.2%

2.0

%4.

3%

33.3

%0.

0%

0.0%

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%0.

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%0.

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%16

Ms

onar

y14

25.

7%

42.9

%38

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0.0%

35.7

%14

.1%

9.5%

12.5

%3.

8%

18.4

%8.

7%0.

0%14

.4%

31.3

%10

.2%

6.3

%0.

0%0.

0%

12.5

%0.

0%0.

0%

11.2

%0.

0%11

.4%

0.0

%0.

0%

100

31

00.0

%1

00.0

%10

0.0%

100.

0%10

0.0

%1

00.0

%10

0.0%

100.

0%

100

.0%

100

.0%

100

.0%

100.

0%

100

.0%

100.

0%

100

.0%

100

.0%

100.

0%1

00.0

%1

00.0

%10

0.0%

100.

0%

100

.0%

100.

0%10

0.0

%1

00.0

%1

00.0

%

RC

Tota

l

S5 - 10

Table S5-2.3.1 Number of Buildings in the Barrios and Rural Area in the 1/5,000 Working Map Area

Slope angle Barrio Rural Rural Factory

Rural High Building Total %

More than 20 degrees 78,101 5,179 76 28 83,384 47.4

Less than 20 degrees 85,024 7,384 273 32 92,713 52.6

Total 163,125 12,563 349 60 176,097 100.0

% 92.6 7.1 0.2 0.0 100.0 Source: JICA Study Team

Table S5-2.3.2 Number of Buildings in the Barrios and Rural Area out of the 1/5,000 Working Map Area

Slope angle Barrio Rural Rural Factory

Rural High Building Total %

More than 20 degrees 261 5,887 4 81 6,233 36.7

Less than 20 degrees 702 9,306 34 722 10,764 63.3

Total 963 15,193 38 803 16,998 100.0

% 5.7 89.4 0.2 0.0 100.0 Source: JICA Study Team

Table S5-2.4.1 Summary of Information Used for Human Damage Estimation


Table S5-2.4.2 Number of Houses and Persons who Dwell in it

Number of houses Number of persons Person/House

Libertador 209,610 939,113 4.5

Sucre 68,033 302,630 4.4

Chacao 1,268 6,249 4.9

Total 278,911 1,247,982 4.5 Source: Census 2001, INE

RC MOMENT-

FRAME

INFORMAL

Low

Middle and High

Stories Type

Persons / House

N. A.

Used iformation

N. A.4.5

S5 - 11


Figure S5-2.1.1 Concept of Inventory Establishment

Urbanized Area The unit is the block. A block has several types of buildings. Therefore, building numbers of each category in a block are estimated for urbanized area. The urbanized area is divided into 30 sub-areas according to the character of building in the area. An field sampling survey was conducted to estimate the ratio.

Building Numberof each category

Total buildingnumber of block

The total number of building in a block is counted by GIS.

No Type Story Year 1 2 31 1-3F - '67 2.9% 42.9% 14.2%2 1-3 '68 - '82 51.4% 14.3% 10.6%3 1-3 '83 - 5.7% 0.0% 8.8%4 4-8F - '67 5.7% 0.0% 8.8%5 4-8 '68 - '82 11.4% 0.0% 4.4%6 4-8 '83 - 8.6% 0.0% 0.9%7 9F- - '67 0.0% 0.0% 5.3%8 9- '68 - '82 5.7% 0.0% 3.5%9 9- '83 - 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%14 Steel 1-3F 2.9% 0.0% 4.4%16 Msonary 5.7% 42.9% 38.9%

100.0% 100.0% 100.0%

RC

Total

Ratio of each category

The field sample survey result issummarized by sub-zone.

Barrio and Rural area

The building category of barrio and rural area is simple. An area has only one category.Therefore, the inventory of barrio and rural area is the number of building in an area.

In Base map area

Same as the urbanized area. The number of buildings in a area is counted by usingbased on the base map.

Basic ConceptThe study area is divided into urbanized area and barrio & rural area.The frameworks of inventory is different between the two kinds of area.

The Study Area

Urbanized Area Barrio & Rural

Out of Base map area

The number of buildings in a area is counted by using GIS based on the aerial photo.

S5 - 12


Figure S5-2.2.1 Flow Chart of Building Inventory for Urbanized Area

The

tota

l num

ber o

f sa

mpl

e is

dec

ided

. Th

e nu

mbe

r is

1000

.

The

urba

nize

d ar

ea is

div

ided

into

sub

- ar

ea.

The number of building is counted by GIS based on the base map.

The sample buildings are selected randomly.

The field survey is conducted.

The survey result is summarized by the sub-area.

The ratios of each building category by sub-area are calculated.

END

START

The GIS data of block is provided

The

item

s of

the

field

sam

plin

g su

rvey

is

deci

ded

base

d on

opi

nion

of e

xper

ts.

The survey result is summarized.

The building category is decided with the information of the survey result.

S5 - 13


Figure S5-2.2.2 Building Survey Form

Building Survey Form

Date: Time: Surveyor:Building Manzana Building Address:

□ Libertador □Chacao □Sucre

Land Use □ Residential Zone (1-2) □Residential Zone□ Commercial □Industrial

Number of (Apartment House

Building □ Dwelling □Apartment □School □ University

□ Office □Governmental □Hospital□ Fire Station

□ Commercial □Hotel □Church □Factory □Gymnasium

□Other

Construction □ Prefabrication Reinforced Concrete (R.C.)

□ R. C. Structure □R.C.Shear Wall without Moment

□ Steel Structure □Adobe or

Year of □ B efore 1955 □1955-67 □1968-82 □(Building age: Years

Number of (Apartment House

Number of □ 1 □ 2 □3 □4 □5 □ 6～8 □9～14 □Over 15

Nos. of Basement □None □1 □ 2 □ 3 □ 4

Number of □None □1 □ 2 □ 3 □ 4 (Small projection on roof)

Site Area: sqm

Building sqm Total Floor sqm

Structural Total Height m (Exclude

Plan □ "H" shape □"L" shape □"U" shape □"E" shape □"T" shape

Vertical □ Major setbacks □Major cantilevers □Pilotis

♦⎪ over ♦⎪5 □ Building on□Building on□Building at hill

Pounding □ No problem □Problem observed□Wall □Slab □Column) Note : The information of in this hattecd area is for

S5 - 14

Sour

ce: T

he JI

CA

Stu

dy T

eam

Figu

re S

5-2.

2.3

Phy

sica

l Ana

lyze

d Vu

lner

abili

ty U

nit (

AVU

)

12

6

8

7

11

12

102 10

310

5 104

106

111

110

101

10

9

5

3

4

109

113

115

116

201

114

112

108

107

108

6

63

1110

S5 - 15


Figure S5-2.2.4 Field Survey Result (Summarized by Structure Type and AVU)


Figure S5-2.2.5 Field Survey Result (Summarized by Story and AVU)


Figure S5-2.2.6 Field Survey Result (Summarized by Constructed Year and AVU)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 201

A V U

%

Steel

R C

M asonary

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 201

A VU

%

- 3F

4-8F

9F -

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 101 102 103 104 105 106 107 108 109 110 111 112 113 114 115 116 201

AV U

%

'83 -

'68 - '82

- '67

S5 - 16


Figure S5-2.3.1 Flowchart of Building Inventory for Barrio and Rural Area

The GIS data of barrio area was provided.

START

In 1/5000 workingmap area

The boundaries of barrio & rural area are edited based on the 1/5000 working map.

The boundaries of barrio & rural area are edited based on the aerial photos.

The numbers of buildings are counted by GIS based on building data of 1/5000

working map

END

The area is divided according to slope. (The threshold value is 20 degree)

The area is divided according to slope. (The threshold value is 20 degrees.)

Yes No

The numbers of buildings are counted by GIS based on the areal photos.

S5 - 17

So

urce

: The

JIC

A S

tudy

Tea

m

Figu

re S

5-2.

3.2

Are

a of

Wor

king

Map

(Sca

le 1

/5 0

00)

S5 - 18

Sour

ce: T

he JI

CA

Stu

dy T

eam

Figu

re S

5-2.

3.3

Slo

pe >

20

Deg

ree

Are

a

S5 - 19

Source: Census 2001, INA

Figure S5-2.4.1 Census Data of Person / Family

S5 - 20

CHAPTER 3. METHOD OF DAMAGE ESTIMATION

3. 1 Building Damage

In agreement with FUNVISIS, the European Micro seismic Scale, EMS was applied for building damage estimation and its applicability was checked with 1967 Caracas Earthquake building damage. Figure S5-3.1.1 shows the damage functions for damage state equal or greater than “Grade 4 Very Heavy Damage” as defined in Figure S5-3.1.3, obtained for the buildings of different vulnerability according to the European Macro seismic Scale (EMS) that correspond directly to the Modified Mercalli Macro seismic Intensity (MMI). According to this definition, the vulnerability class A corresponds to the most vulnerable class, the vulnerability class F corresponds to the least vulnerable class.

These curves constitute an independent basis, so any category or structural typology of buildings can be expressed as a lineal combination of these curves applying properly weight factors to each vulnerability class.

Building categories definition

For classification of the different structural typologies of buildings into Vulnerability Classes, the start point are the recommendations proposed by the European Macroseismic Scales, summarized in Figure S5-3.1.2.

These recommendations classify buildings according to the predominant material (Masonry, Reinforced Concrete, steel, wood), the resistant system (moment resistant, walls) and the level of earthquake resistant design (high, medium, none). On the other hand, these recommendations don’t classify according to the height of the building. Also they use the typical construction culture used in the different European countries.

Table S5-3.1.1 summarizes the definition of the building categories used in this Study, which were determined according to the results of the field survey and agreed between the Study Team and FUNVISIS.

The definition of the different structural typologies is based fundamentally on the predominant material (Reinforced Concrete, Steel, Precast Concrete, Masonry), the resistant system (moment resistant, walls), the height of the building and the age of the building. For rural and barrio areas, the slope angle of the ground is considered. This typology tries to represent the typical construction in the marginal zones of Caracas commonly referred as “ranchos”, made of hollow clay bricks with “machones” (reinforced concrete columns) and load beams, floors of thin and long hollow clay blocks and a light roof cover. These buildings have 1 to 3-4 stories.

S5 - 21

On the other hand, the masonry buildings (Masonry-Brick) represent the typical colonial building located in some sectors of the city’s downtown area. The high prefabricated structures (Precast 9-) refers to the typical prefabricated construction system implemented in Caracas during the 70’s in buildings up to 17 stories high, which are concentrated in some housing developments in the Capital.

The classification by year of the reinforced concrete moment frame structures reflects the changes in the building design and construction practices which are associated with the changes in the design guidelines of 1967 and 1982.

Damage Functions for the categories of buildings employed in Caracas

In order to determine the damage functions of each one of these building typologies, a team of FUNVISIS professionals was formed to agree on a reasonable way to distribute a weight factor for the different vulnerability classes.

Table S5-3.1.2 shows the weight factor for each structural typology, assigned to each vulnerability class, the total of which equals one.

Based on the damage functions defined for every vulnerability class according to the EMS-98 scale described in Figure S5-3.1.3 and the distribution of weight factors agreed for each structural typology described in Table S5-3.1.2, the damage function for every category of building employed in Caracas (Table S5-3.1.1) was obtained.

Figure S5-3.1.4 represents the damage functions determined by the described procedure, and will be used in this Study (Safina, 2003).

Calibration of the Proposed Damage Functions

In order to verify if the proposed damage function is representative, some of the registered results occurring in the earthquake of Caracas in July 29th 1967, were reviewed and compared with the calculation.

The buildings damage report in Los Palos Grandes sector and surroundings (FUNVISIS 1978) establish that of a total of 279 buildings, 19 (6.81 %) had damage 3 – severe structural damage and 4 (1.43%) presented damage 4 (collapse), for a total of 23 buildings with a damage greater or equal than Grade 4, most of them with heights above 8 stories.

Using the damage function associated to Type 5- RC moment resistant with more than 8 stories and constructed before 1967 and a macro seismic intensity MMI equivalent to VIII, we obtain that at least 6.0 % of the buildings should have a damage level equal or greater than 4 – “Heavy Damage”

S5 - 22

representing approximately 18 buildings out of the 289 that existed then. This is an acceptable result compared with the actual phenomena of 23 buildings damaged.

For the sector of San Jose (FUNVISIS, 1978) of a total of 407 buildings mainly between 3 and 8 stories, only 3 presented a Damage 3 representing 0.72% of 417 buildings (407 evaluated and 10 not classified). Using the damage function associated to Type-2 RC moment resistant frame from 3 to 8 stories built before 1967 and a macro seismic intensity MMI equivalent to VII, we obtain that approximately 1.0% of the buildings should have a damage level equal or greater than 4 – “Heavy Damage”, representing 4-5 buildings of the 417 that existed then. This is an acceptable result compared with the actual phenomena of 3 buildings damaged.

3. 2 Human Casualties

Direct causes of earthquake casualties include collapse of buildings, fires, rockslides, landslides, etc. Among them, human casualties due to building collapse are a general phenomena observed in all areas subject to earthquake disasters. In Caracas, during the past earthquake the victims were killed mainly by building collapse. Considering the weakness of building in the barrios, building collapse will be the most notable cause of human casualties in future earthquakes.

Therefore, to estimate the expected number of deaths, the relation of building damage to death toll was studied based on the past earthquakes. Damage functions for death tolls and the number of people severely injured are derived from this analysis. Number of deaths and severe injuries were evaluated based on empirical relationships and building damage distribution. The flowchart of the human casualties estimation is shown in Figure S5-3.2.1.

1) Deaths

a) Evaluation of Existing Human Casualties Data in Venezuela

The data of human casualties of past earthquake in Venezuela was studied. However, no correlation can be derived from it as stated below. The damages of the Caracas earthquake (1967) and the Cariaco earthquake (1997) were studied.

Caracas earthquake (1967)

No detailed information on the deaths of the Caracas earthquake has been found regarding the distribution of the number of death and the number of heavily

S5 - 23

damaged buildings. Only the total number of death is known as 2751. The number of heavily damaged buildings of the Caracas earthquake is 2712.

Cariaco earthquake (1997)

The human casualties of Cariaco earthquake was reported by PAHO3. There are two statistics of damaged buildings in the report. Table S5-3.2.1 shows the both statistics.

Figure S5-3.2.2 shows the relation between number of heavily damaged building and number of deaths. No correlation could be derived from it.

b) Evaluation of existing casualties data outside of Venezuela

Data, which can derive a correlation between number of deaths and number of heavily damaged buildings, has not been found from past earthquakes in Venezuela. Therefore, suitable data was looked at for outside of Venezuela. Based on consideration of similarity of buildings and degree of damage, the Quindio earthquake (1999, Colombia) was selected.

The number of deaths and the number of heavily damaged buildings due to 1999 Quindio earthquake was studied by DANE4, Colombia as shown in the Tables S5-3.2.2 and S5-3.2.3. These quantities have good correlation as shown in Figure S5-3.2.3. The type of buildings in the damaged area of Quindio earthquake looks like low rise buildings and informal buildings in the study area. However, this is different from the middle and high rise buildings in the study area. Therefore, the following equation is proposed to estimate the deaths due to the building damage for low rise buildings in the study area:

Log Y = 1.30 Log X – 2.60 Where: Y : Death

X: Heavily Damaged Building number

The number of persons per building of the damaged area of Quindio earthquake is 4.46. Therefore, the estimated number of deaths should be corrected as per the follow formula:

1 Sozen. M. A., Jennings P. C., Matthiesen R. B., Housner G. W. , Newmark N. M., 1968, Engineering report on the Caracas earthquake of 29 July 1967, National Academy of Sciences, Washington, D. C., USA 2 ditto 3 Crónicas de Desastres Terremoto de Cariaco, Venezuela, 1997, PAHO, PAN AMERICAN HEALTH ORGANIZATION 4 Social and Economic Dimensions of the Effects of the Earthquake in the Eje Cafetero. Diagnosis for the reconstruction., 1999, DANE, National Administrative Department of Statistics, Colombia

S5 - 24

The number of persons per house in the study area is set as 4.45 (See section .2.4)

c) Study on the summary of world data

The damage data, which can drive a correlation between deaths and number of damaged buildings for middle and high buildings in the study area has not been found. Therefore, the summary of world data of number of death and heavily damaged building was studied. Figure S5-3.2.4 shows the summary of the world data.

The data of the Caracas earthquake (1967) and two famous earthquakes, where damage was mainly caused by heavy damage of middle and high rise buildings, is connected by a straight line in Figure S5-3.2.3. The connected straight line passes through several famous earthquake damages, which are caused by primarily by collapse of RC buildings.

Therefore, following equation is proposed to estimate the death toll due to the building damage for middle and high rise buildings in the study area.

Y = X Where: Y: Death X: Heavily Damaged Building number

The proposed death toll function for low rise buildings also studied with the summary of the world data. The damage data sets of the Cariaco earthquake (1997) are marked on the Figure S5-3.2.2 with the line of proposed damage function path through between two data sets of the Cariaco earthquake. Therefore, the proposed damage function for low rise buildings is considered as appropriate.

2) Human Injuries The same as the information on deaths, appropriate damage data in Venezuela for casualties has not been found. Therefore, the data of Quindio earthquake (1999, Colombia) was studied. The relationship between number of Deaths and Injuries was also obtained from the previous Tables S5-3.2.2 and S5-3.2.3, and expressed in Figure S5-3.2.5. Referring to

The corrected number of death 4.45

= The estimated number of death X

The number of person per house in the study area

S5 - 25

the figure, the relationship between deaths and casualties is formulated by the following equation:

Log Y = 0.9824 Log X + 0.9031 Where: Y: Number of Injured

X: Death toll from heavily damaged buildings

3. 3 Result of Damage Estimation

The estimated number of buildings is summarized in Table S5-3.3.1, and a summary of estimated number of damaged buildings for four scenarios is shown in Table S5-3.3.2. The details of estimated damages for each case is shown in Tables S5-3.3.3 to S5-3.3.6.

S5 - 26

Table S5-3.1.1 Building Categories of Damage Function Used in this Study Type Structure No. Stories Year Slope of the ground

1 -67 2 68 – 82 3

1-3 83-

4 -67 5 68 – 82 6

4-8 83-

7 -67 8 68 – 82 9

RC – MOMENT FRAME

9 - 83-

---

10 4-8 11

RC – SHEAR WALL 9-

--- ---

12 1-2 13

PRECAST 9-

--- ---

14 1-3 15

STEEL 4-

--- ---

16 MASONRY / Brick --- --- --- 17 Non-Engineering (Rural) --- --- 18 Non-Engineering (Barrio) --- ---

More 20°

19 Non-Engineering (Rural) --- --- 20 Non-Engineering (Barrio) --- ---

Less 20°

Table S5-3.1.2 The Weight Factor of Vulnerability Class for the Structural Typology Type A B C D E F

1 0.05 0.20 0.40 0.35 2 0.15 0.35 0.45 0.05 3 0.05 0.25 0.55 0.15 4 0.05 0.25 0.50 0.20 5 0.05 0.30 0.45 0.20 6 0.01 0.14 0.40 0.35 0.10 7 0.05 0.40 0.45 0.10 8 0.10 0.35 0.45 0.10 9 0.05 0.20 0.40 0.30 0.05

10 0.30 0.50 0.20 11 0.05 0.30 0.50 0.15 12 0.05 0.30 0.55 0.10 13 0.05 0.40 0.45 0.10 14 0.05 0.10 0.50 0.35 15 0.15 0.35 0.45 0.05 16 0.05 0.30 0.60 0.05 17 0.25 0.60 0.15 18 0.40 0.55 0.05 19 0.40 0.60 20 0.60 0.40

S5 - 27

Table S5-3.2.1 Casualties and Building Damage Statistics of the Cariaco Earthquake

Source: Crónicas de Desastres Terremoto de Cariaco, Venezuela, 1997, PAHO

Table S5-3.2.2 Number of Deaths and Number of Heavily Damaged Buildings of Quindio Earthquake 1999, Colombia

Source: DANE, 1999

Municipality Moderate Heavily Moderate Heavily

Ribero 687 799 1141 1308 35 360

Sucre 168 100 757 214 33 20Andres E.. Blanco 699 133 90 130 1 65Andres Mata 777 733 711 745 4 35Mejias 140 36 35 57 12Bolivar 119 10 625 76 29Benitez 322 96 328 181 7

Marino 1 2 16 7

Montes 22 3 52 16Bermudez 86 22 38 85Arismendi 576 50 33 5

Valdez 25 10 19 9

Cruz Salmeron 35 13 267 69

Total 3657 2007 4112 2902 73 528

Damaged Buildings Casualty

Death In jureFUNREVI FUNDOSOES

M unicipality Population D ead Prim ary B uilding H eavilyAffected Totally U ninhabitable Partially D am aged

chinchina 71,621 1 200 207 21 24 154 45Arm enia 280,922 929 96,534 49,163 11,163 10,380 19,734 21,543B uenavista 5,194 2 383 218 37 58 117 95C alarca 74,409 84 21,591 10,558 2,200 2,632 4,990 4,832C ircasia 26,422 8 2,483 1,510 240 312 809 552C ordoba 6,951 2 1,410 594 204 130 219 334Filandia 14,260 0 561 553 30 83 424 113G enova 12,131 4 9 113 1 1 104 2La Tebaida 27,527 59 10,562 5,129 1,806 736 1,902 2,542M ontenegro 41,040 11 5,041 2,550 364 689 1,261 1,053Pijao 9,777 4 2,287 1,351 235 349 607 584Q uim baya 40,070 7 2,484 2,021 160 348 1,357 508Salento 8,609 0 325 308 18 56 211 74Pereira 438,290 61 10,978 9,391 761 1,700 6,275 2,461D osquebradas 172,831 6 1,219 1,126 65 199 783 264M arsella 22,959 0 158 214 5 27 173 32Santa Rosa de C abal 73,947 1 270 293 30 33 210 63C ajam arca 20,856 3 1,372 1,369 83 212 1,050 295Roncesvalles 8,528 0 40 58 0 7 49 7Alcala 10,184 0 203 390 24 16 334 40Argelia 9,555 0 101 73 9 12 51 21B olivar 20,138 0 32 84 1 3 79 4C aicedonia 47,353 2 1,173 1,321 46 233 985 279La Victoria 16,810 0 244 272 16 39 215 55O bando 16,762 0 95 422 6 14 393 20Sevilla 62,396 1 461 853 21 84 712 105U lloa 6,671 0 181 333 6 43 278 49

Total 1,546,213 1,185 160,397 90,474 17,552 18,420 43,476 35,972

D am age num ber

S5 - 28

Table S5-3.2.3 Number of Deaths and Number of Injured of Quindio Earthquake 1999, Colombia

Source: DANE,1999

Table S5-3.3.1 Summary of the Estimated Number of Buildings Number of Buildings

PARROQUIA Urban -3F Urban 4F- Urban Sum Barrio & Rural Sum 23 DE ENERO 486 102 588 5,319 5,907ALTAGRACIA 1,386 415 1,801 265 2,066ANTIMANO 617 65 681 21,277 21,958CARICUAO 805 1,129 1,934 9,240 11,174CATEDRAL 544 160 704 2 706CAUCAGUITA 0 440 440 7,093 7,533CHACAO 4,703 1,547 6,250 274 6,524COCHE 1,426 597 2,023 4,080 6,103EL CAFETAL 2 0 2 0 2EL JUNQUITO 0 105 105 10,279 10,384EL PARAISO 4,587 576 5,163 4,454 9,617EL RECREO 5,729 1,703 7,432 2,156 9,588EL VALLE 693 266 959 16,913 17,872FILA DE MARICHE 0 90 90 5,036 5,126LA CANDELARIA 1,492 301 1,793 108 1,901LA DOLORITA 0 529 529 9,128 9,657LA PASTORA 3,514 465 3,979 7,352 11,331LA VEGA 1,482 505 1,986 14,223 16,209LEONCIO MARTINEZ 5,054 1,115 6,169 597 6,766MACARAO 306 445 752 8,101 8,853NUESTRA SENORA DEL ROSARIO DE BARUTA 40 13 53 0 53

PETARE 8,236 2,372 10,608 36,213 46,821SAN AGUSTIN 1,122 317 1,440 3,197 4,637SAN BERNARDINO 1,609 345 1,954 632 2,586SAN JOSE 767 226 993 1,633 2,626SAN JUAN 1,967 274 2,241 9,369 11,610SAN PEDRO 3,562 1,183 4,746 429 5,175SANTA ROSALIA 4,704 540 5,244 11,332 16,576SANTA TERESA 657 196 853 0 853SUCRE 10,777 1,215 11,992 42,456 54,448

Sum 66,265 17,234 83,499 231,158 314,657

Department Dead Injured Caldas 1 8 Quindio 1,110 7,166 Risaralda 70 1,218 Tolima 3 23 Valle del Cauca 3 108

Total 1,187 8,523

S5 - 29

Table S5-3.3.2 Summary of the Damage Estimation Results by Case

number % number % number % number %Urban -3F 66,265 21.1 849 8.5 19 3.2 144 3.3Urban 4F- 17,234 5.5 170 1.7 170 28.2 1,225 28.4Urban Sum 83,499 26.5 1,019 10.2 189 31.4 1,369 31.8Barrio & Rural 231,158 73.5 9,001 89.8 413 68.6 2,937 68.2

Total 314,657 100.0 10,020 100.0 602 100.0 4,306 100.0

number % number % number % number %Urban -3F 66,265 21.1 2,656 8.2 85 3.4 619 3.5Urban 4F- 17,234 5.5 533 1.6 533 21.1 3,775 21.4Urban Sum 83,499 26.5 3,189 9.8 618 24.4 4,394 24.9Barrio & Rural 231,158 73.5 29,217 90.2 1,910 75.6 13,226 75.1

Total 314,657 100.0 32,406 100.0 2,528 100.0 17,620 100.0

number % number % number % number %Urban -3F 66,265 21.1 74 4.1 0 0.0 0 0.0Urban 4F- 17,234 5.5 15 0.8 15 24.2 90 19.8Urban Sum 83,499 26.5 89 4.9 15 24.2 90 19.8Barrio & Rural 231,158 73.5 1,713 95.1 47 75.8 365 80.2

Total 314,657 100.0 1,802 100.0 62 100.0 455 100.0

number % number % number % number %Urban -3F 66,265 21.1 2,758 10.2 89 4.1 658 4.3Urban 4F- 17,234 5.5 604 2.2 603 28.1 4,310 28.3Urban Sum 83,499 26.5 3,361 12.4 692 32.2 4,968 32.7Barrio & Rural 231,158 73.5 23,696 87.6 1,455 67.8 10,240 67.3

Total 314,657 100.0 27,057 100.0 2,147 100.0 15,208 100.0

Heavily Damaged Buil. Death

Case 1878

Heavily Damaged Buil. Death

Case Avila

Injured

Injured

Building Number

Building Number

Heavily Damaged Buil. Death Injured

Case 1967

Heavily Damaged Buil. Death Injured

Case 1812

Building Number

Building Number

S5 - 30

Tabl

e S5

-3.3

.3

Dam

age

Estim

atio

n R

esul

t for

Cas

e 19

67

M

unic

ipar

ity

PA

RR

OQ

UIA

Dam

aged

Buil.

Deat

hIn

jure

dD

amag

ed B

uil.

Deat

hIn

jure

dD

amag

ed

Buil.

Deat

hIn

jure

dD

amag

ed

Buil.

Deat

hIn

jure

d

23 D

E E

NER

O1

10

30

0220

751

224

851

ALTA

GR

AC

IA9

966

32

19

27

00

68

10

76

AN

TIM

AN

O1

10

50

0982

49

347

987

50

347

CA

RIC

UA

O1

19

10

0240

858

242

967

CA

TED

RA

L3

326

12

00

00

016

326

CO

CH

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Tabl

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Dam

age

Estim

atio

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S5 - 32

Tabl

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-3.3

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Dam

age

Estim

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Tabl

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alLibertador Sucre

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an 4

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S5 - 34

Figure S5-3.1.1 The Damage Function for Damage Level 4 / EMS-98

Figure S5-3.1.2 Vulnerability Classes of Structures Used in EMS-98

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

INTENSIDAD MACROSÍSMICA (IMM)

REL

AC

IÓN

DE

DA

ÑO

SEV

ERO

ABCDEF

Seismic Intensity (MMI)

Hea

vily

Dam

age

Rat

io

S5 - 35

Classification of Damage

Masonry RC Building

Grade 1: Negligible to slight damage (no structural damage, slight non-structural damage)

Hair-line cracks in very few walls. Fall of small pieces of plaster only. Fall of loose stones from upper parts of buildings in very few cases.

Fine cracks in plaster over frame members or in walls at the base. Fine cracks in partitions and infills

Grade 2: Moderate damage (slight structural damage, moderate non-structural damage)

Cracks in many walls. Fall of fairly large pieces of plaster. Partial collapse of chimneys.

Cracks in columns and beams of frames and in structural walls. Cracks in partition and infill walls; fall of brittle cladding and plaster. Falling mortar from the joints of wall panels.

Grade 3: Substantial to heavy damage (moderate structural damage, heavy non-structural damage)

Large and extensive cracks in most walls.Roof tiles detach. Chimneys fracture at the roof line; failure of individual non-structural elements (partitions, gable walls).

Cracks in columns and beam column joints of frames at the base and at joints of coupled walls. Spalling of concrete cover, buckling of reinforced rods. Large cracks in partition and infill walls, failure of individual infill panels.

Grade 4: Very heavy damage (heavy structural damage, very heavy non-structural damage)

Serious failure of walls; partial structural failure of roofs and floors

Large cracks in structural elements with compression failure of concrete and fracture of rebars; bond failure of beam reinforced bars; tilting of columns. Collapse of a few columns or of a single upper floor.

Grade 5: Destruction (very heavy structural damage)

Total or near total collapse

Collapse of ground floor or parts (e. g. wings) of buildings.

Figure S5-3.1.3 The Classification of Damage Proposed by European Micro-Seismic Scale

S5 - 36

Figure S5-3.1.4 Building Damage Function Used in this Study Source: Safina, 2003


Figure S5-3.2.1 Flowchart of Human Casualties Estimation

Evaluation of existing human damage data in Venezuela

Precious but very little data of the past two Earthquakes in Venezuela, i.e., Caracas(1967) and Cariaco (1997), should be used for validation of local characteristics.

Evaluation of existing human damage data out of Venezuela

The detailed data of the Quindio Earthquake (Colombia, 1999) was studied.The correlation of the Quindio Earthquake can be basically applied to low-risebuildings in the study area, though the correlation is difficult to be applied to middle & high-rise buildings

.

Study on the summary of worldwide death damage

The data of Caracas (1967), Mexico (1984), Armenia (1986) earthquakes, of whichdamage was mainly caused by damage of high buildings, are considered.The proposed damage function of death for low-rise buildings is compared with thedata of the Cariaco (1997) and other earthquakes in the world.

Evaluation of existing human damage data in Venezuela

Precious but very little data of the past two Earthquakes in Venezuela, i.e., Caracas(1967) and Cariaco (1997), should be used for validation of local characteristics.

Evaluation of existing human damage data out of Venezuela

The detailed data of the Quindio Earthquake (Colombia, 1999) was studied.The correlation of the Quindio Earthquake can be basically applied to low-risebuildings in the study area, though the correlation is difficult to be applied to middle & high-rise buildings

.

Study on the summary of worldwide death damage

The data of Caracas (1967), Mexico (1984), Armenia (1986) earthquakes, of whichdamage was mainly caused by damage of high buildings, are considered.The proposed damage function of death for low-rise buildings is compared with thedata of the Cariaco (1997) and other earthquakes in the world.

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Modif ied Mercalli Intensity

Hea

vily

Dam

age

Rat

io

12

3

45

6

78

910

11

1213

14

1516

17

1819

20

S5 - 37

Source: Cronicas de Desasteres Terremoto de Cariaco, Venezuela, 1997, PAHO

Figure S5-3.2.2 Relation Between Number of Heavily Damaged Buildings and Number of Deaths of Cariaco Earthquake (1997)

Source: Social and Economic Dimensions of the Effects of the Earthquake in the Eje Cafetero. Diagnosis for the reconstruction, 1999, DANE, National Administrative Department of Statistics, Colombia and the JICA Study Team

Figure S5-3.2.3 Relation Between Heavily Damaged Buildings and Death Toll of Quindio Earthquake (1999, Colombia)

0

10

20

30

40

1 10 100 1000 10000

Heavily Dam aged Building

Num of Death

FU N REVI

FU N D O SO ES

1

10

100

1000

1 10 100 1.000 10.000 100.000

Heavily Dam aged Building Num ber

Death Toll

S5 - 38


Figure S5-3.2.4 The Summary of the World Data

(Floor>=4F)

(Floor<=3F)

(Floor>=4F)

(Floor<=3F)

S5 - 39

Source: Social and Economic Dimensions of the Effects of the Earthquake in the Eje Cafetero. Diagnosis for the reconstruction, 1999, DANE, National Administrative Department of Statistics, Colombia and the JICA Study Team

Figure S5-3.2.5 Relationship Between Dead and Injured of Quindio Earthquake (1999, Colombia)

1

10

100

1.000

10.000

100.000

1 10 100 1.000 10.000

D eath

Injured

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