FAPESP & BE-BASIC WORKSHOP ON IMPACTS OF BIOFUELS …Gerd Sparovek (ESALQ, Brazil) Development of...
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Population 10 bi Fleet 0.8 car/capita km 20,000 km y -1 Consumption 10 km L -1 Production Efficiency 8,000 L ha -1 World Ag. Suitable area 1,550 M ha Anthropic area Brazil 275 M ha Crop area Brazil 67 M ha Ethanol production Brazil 22 m 3 M Ethanol demand 16,000 m 3 M Demand Ethanol/Brazilian ethanol prod. 727 Area demand 2,000 M ha % World ag. area 129 % FAPESP & BE-BASIC WORKSHOP ON IMPACTS OF BIOFUELS 25 November 2010 10.45 - 12:45h: Panel II: Environmental Impacts of Biorenewables and Biofuels Gerd Sparovek (ESALQ, Brazil)
Transcript of FAPESP & BE-BASIC WORKSHOP ON IMPACTS OF BIOFUELS …Gerd Sparovek (ESALQ, Brazil) Development of...
Population 10 bi 10
Fleet 0.8 car/capita 0.2
km 20,000 km y-1 10,000
Consumption 10 km L-1 25
Production Efficiency 8,000 L ha-1 12,000
World Ag. Suitable area 1,550 M ha 1,550
Anthropic area Brazil 275 M ha 275
Crop area Brazil 67 M ha 67
Ethanol production Brazil 22 m3 M 22
Ethanol demand 16,000 m3 M 800
Demand Ethanol/Brazilian ethanol prod.
727
36
Area demand 2,000 M ha 67
% World ag. area 129 % 4
FAPESP & BE-BASIC WORKSHOP ON IMPACTS OF BIOFUELS25 November 2010
10.45 - 12:45h: Panel II: Environmental Impacts of Biorenewables and BiofuelsGerd Sparovek (ESALQ, Brazil)
Breakthrough technology
R&D
Modesty&Public Transport
FAPESP & BE-BASIC WORKSHOP ON IMPACTS OF BIOFUELS25 November 2010
10.45 - 12:45h: Panel II: Environmental Impacts of Biorenewables and BiofuelsGerd Sparovek (ESALQ, Brazil)
Development of Brazilian agriculture: strategies, dimension, and possible impacts
gerd sparovek (prof., usp-esalq) israel klug (consultant) göran berndes (prof., chalmers)alberto barretto (PhD, usp-esalq) jane lino (MSc, usp-esalq) flávio freitas (MSc, kth)
Simple definition: Increase production
Development
Intensification: more productive
Expansion: more area
Improving management and genetics
Doing something new (2nd generation)
Using land from areas that got more intensiveand/or
Converting new land to agriculture
Natural vegetation
Pasture
Crop
Pasture & Crop
Other land use
Urban & no data
Water
850 Mha537 Mha (60%) = Natural vegetation
211 Mha
Pasture and Pasture & Crop landapp. 200 M head
67 Mha
Crop land and planted forests
Soy 22 MhaCorn 13Cane 8Euc/Pine forest 8Beans 4
175 Mha
Park & Reservation
170 Mha
Natural VegetationinPark & Reservation
NV = 537 - 170 (UC/TI) – 16 (preserved public not destined PPñD) = 351 Mha private
APP (min) 103 MhaDeficit (min) of NV = 44 Mha
LR 254 MhaDeficit (min) of NV = 43 Mha
Compliance with NV legislation (forest act) on private land
87 Mha natural vegetation re-establishment = 2-3 years of the BR ag-buisiness GDP
APP LR
Agricultural development:Crop land expansion
High 29Mha Medium 32Mha
Suitability for crops: climate, slope, soil
Pasture
High 7Mha Medium 23Mha
Natural Vegetation
61 Mha available for crop land
Caneresidues
Integration with crops
Beef cattle production developmentIntensification
Herd (M head) 180 133
Stocking rate (head/ha) 1,14 1,50
Off-take rate (% y) 22 30
Slaughter rate (M head/y) 40 40
Area (Mha) 158 89
Grazing: cattle production can release 69 Mha of land with minor intensification
Censo 2006
Integrated scenario:
A sugarcane mill is also a potential (very low-priced) animal feed production plant.
Traditional milk production
20 %Forest reserve
Pasture80%
Integrated
20 %Forest reserve
Pasture (summer)30%
Sugarcane50%
• Winter restricts productivity
• 20 ha
• 20 cows (13 in milk production)
• 4.5 L/day
Beef cattle development:Expansion
No legally protected natural vegetation103 Mha?
Breakthrough technology: 2nd generation
Ethanol
Solid biofuels
Biogas
Woodchips1)
Ethanol factory/CHP
Feedstock ???
How productive are marginal areas?
What if we start harvesting the entire plant?
old days!Sediment yield, ton ha-1 y-1
No-till in RS (DENARDIN et al., 2001)
N P K
Addition
Lost
Fertilizer Precipitation
HarvestVolatilization
Fixation
Wheathering
Cycling
Leaching
Residues
Erosion
Who will benefit?
