EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast · This report presents the mid-year update of the EUROCONTROL...

EUROCONTROL

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast

September 2010

Flight Movements 2010 - 2016

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report presents the mid-year update of the EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast of flights that was published in February 2010 (MTF10). The forecast considers the development of air traffic in Europe over the next 7 years. This update is focused on using the most-recent available traffic statistics and economic forecasts.

The forecast update (MTF10b) is that there will be 11.5 million IFR movements in Europe1 in 2016, 22% more than in 2009. This forecast shows that in 2011 traffic will again pass the 10 million flights mark that was first reached in 2007.

The main influences on this forecast are: progressive recovery of traffic growth in 2010 interrupted by the flight cancellations due to the volcanic eruption in Iceland; the recent improvement of the economic situation (most European States have emerged from recession); and the cautious optimism of the airline industry, with limited signs of capacity improvements in the coming winter timetable.

Updating the forecast with latest economic data and the latest traffic trends has reduced uncertainty about 2010 (which was identified as a risk in MTF10), although to some extent that uncertainty has shifted to the 2011 growth. Compared to MTF10:

• MTF10b is an upward revision for 2010 (0.8 percentage points), with traffic forecast to increase by 1.6% in 2010 in the base case.

• MTF10b presents an upward revision to 2011 growth (+1.5 percentage point) with traffic forecast to increase by 4.7% in 2011 in the base case. However, around 1 point of this is the consequence of the ash cloud in 2010.

• Overall, stronger-than-expected growth in 2010 and 2011 increases the 2016 base forecast (up by 0.6 percentage points) compared to the February forecast.

Details of growth per State are provided in annexes and summarised below in Figure 1 and Figure 2.

1 Here ‘Europe’ is represented by the EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area (ESRA). See www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/faq for definition.


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Figure 1. Average annual growth (AAGR) 2010-2016 for each State.

Figure 2. Summary of the forecast for Europe (ESRA082).

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

AAGR 2016/ 2009

H . . . . . 9,664 10,373 10,829 11,197 11,618 12,065 12,508 4.1%

B 9,218 9,561 10,043 10,083 9,413 9,561 10,014 10,327 10,610 10,909 11,213 11,518 2.9%

IFR Flight

Movements (Thousands)

L . . . . . 9,456 9,617 9,811 9,991 10,198 10,400 10,592 1.7%

H . . . . . 2.7% 7.3% 4.4% 3.4% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 4.1%

B . 3.7% 5.0% 0.4% -6.6% 1.6% 4.7% 3.1% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.9%

Annual Growth (Compared to

previous year) L . . . . . 0.5% 1.7% 2.0% 1.8% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7%

Any user of the forecast is strongly advised to use the forecast range (low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. By 2016, the high-growth scenario has an extra 1 million flights compared to the base scenario (+9%); the low-growth scenario has 1 million fewer movements than the base (-8%). There are also a number of other important risks that this forecast has not included. In particular, the hesitancy of the economic recovery on both sides of the Atlantic and the possibility of a future return to high oil prices present further down-side risks.

2 Eurocontrol Statistical Reference Area in the extended 2008 definition used in the MTF10 (Annex A).


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In parallel with this publication, in support of the new performance management process, STATFOR has prepared for the first time a medium-term forecast of service units covering charging areas in Europe as specified in the geographical scope of the EU-wide performance target setting. This is published separately (see Ref. 1).

The EUROCONTROL short-term forecast of flights will next be revised in December 2010. The EUROCONTROL medium-term forecasts (flights and service units) will be fully updated in February 2011.

EUROPEAN ORGANISATION FOR THE SAFETY OF AIR NAVIGATION

EUROCONTROL

EUROPEAN AIR TRAFFIC MANAGEMENT PROGRAMME

EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements

2010-2016

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DOCUMENT CHARACTERISTICS

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Abstract This medium-term forecast update of IFR flight movements has been prepared by the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service (STATFOR). It replaces the February medium-term forecast publication. It also replaces the May update of the short-term forecast.

This document contains a description and discussion of the main results as well as a comparison with previously published results.

Keywords STATFOR Forecast Medium-Term Traffic Flow Movements Flight Movements Trends Update

Contact Person(s) Tel Unit Claire Leleu x3346 CND/STATFOR

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DOCUMENT APPROVAL

The following table identifies all management authorities who have successively approved the present issue of this document.

© 2010 The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL). This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the source and to the extent justified by the non-commercial use (not for sale). The information in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from EUROCONTROL. The use of the document is at the user’s sole risk and responsibility. EUROCONTROL expressly disclaims any and all warranties with respect to any content within the document, express or implied.

The Statistics and Forecasts Service (STATFOR) is ISO 9001:2009 certified.


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DOCUMENT CHANGE RECORD

The following table records the complete history of the successive editions of the present document. EDITION NUMBER

EDITION DATE

INFOCENTRE REFERENCE REASON FOR CHANGE PAGES

AFFECTED

v0.1 30/08/10 Internal version All

v1.0 07/09/10 Final version All


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CONTENTS

1. INTRODUCTION...................................................................................................1

1.1 General......................................................................................................................................1

2. TRAFFIC TRENDS IN 2010..................................................................................2

3. GROWTH IN IFR MOVEMENTS TO 2016............................................................5

3.1 Summary of growth ...................................................................................................................5

3.2 Short-term outlook (2010 & 2011).............................................................................................6

3.3 Medium-term outlook (2012 onwards) ......................................................................................7

3.4 Risks to the Forecast ................................................................................................................8

3.5 Comparison with previous forecast (February publication).......................................................9

4. GLOSSARY .......................................................................................................11

Annex A. EUROCONTROL STATISTICAL REFERENCE AREA.................12

Annex B. TRAFFIC REGION DEFINITIONS.................................................13

B.1 Traffic regions .........................................................................................................................13

B.2 Functional Airspace Blocks.....................................................................................................14

Annex C. SUMMARY OF FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS...............................15

C.1 Economic Growth....................................................................................................................15

C.2 European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS) ..........................................................18

Annex D. SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE ESRA ......................19

Annex E. FUTURE TRAFFIC AND GROWTH ..............................................22

E.1 Summary of the Forecast. Annual IFR Movements 2005-2016. ............................................22

E.2 Summary of the Forecast. Growth Rates 2006-2016 .............................................................26

Annex F. REFERENCES...............................................................................30


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List of Figures. Figure 1. Average annual growth (AAGR) 2010-2016 for each State...................................... ii Figure 2. Summary of the forecast for Europe (ESRA08). ...................................................... ii Figure 3. Last three months of 2010 traffic have been ahead of the central forecast published

in February (Source: EUROCONTROL). ........................................................................ 2 Figure 4. Most of the States in Europe saw little growth in local traffic since the beginning of

2010. (Source: EUROCONTROL). ................................................................................. 4 Figure 5. Changes in flows from and to the top 6 extra-European destinations. (Source:

EUROCONTROL). ......................................................................................................... 4 Figure 6. Load factors reached their highest in 2010, except during the ash crisis. (Source:

AEA)............................................................................................................................... 4 Figure 7. In July, nearly all market segments have exited from downturn. (Source:

EUROCONTROL). ......................................................................................................... 4 Figure 8. Summary of the forecast for the Europe (ESRA08). ............................................... 5 Figure 9. Apart from UK and Ireland which were most affected by the ash-cloud, recovery is

expected in 2010 for all States in Europe (ESRA087). .................................................... 6 Figure 10. Number of additional movements per day for each State (2016 versus 2009) ...... 7 Figure 11. Forecast for the ESRA08 is revised upwards compared to last February one......10 Figure 12. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area................................................12 Figure 13. Regions used in flow statistics. ............................................................................13 Figure 14. Nine FABs are currently defined in the SES package. .........................................14 Figure 15. GDP forecast for EU27 has been slightly revised compared to February.............15 Figure 16. Summary of changes in GDP forecasts for 2010-2016: biggest revisions happen

for 2010 and 2011. ........................................................................................................16 Figure 17. GDP Growth by Traffic Zone. ..............................................................................17 Figure 18. The reduction in demand for flights up to 2016 due to airlines passing the

additional ETS costs onto passengers is likely to be limited. .........................................18 Figure 19. Growth in the ESRA. ...........................................................................................19 Figure 20. Traffic on the main flow categories for the ESRA.................................................20 Figure 21. Traffic and growth on the biggest region-to-region flows through the ESRA. .......21 Figure 22. Annual traffic per traffic zone and 2009-2016 average annual growth..................22 Figure 23. Annual growth rates per traffic zone and 2009-2016 average annual growth.......26


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1. INTRODUCTION

1.1 General

This report presents an update of the medium-term flight forecast that EUROCONTROL published in February (Ref. 2). After requests by stakeholders, and in particular to allow the capacity-planning process to use the most up-to-date information, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service (STATFOR) now refreshes the main inputs to the forecast each September in addition to its original full revision of the medium-term forecast published each February.

The forecast describes annual numbers of instrument flight rules (IFR) flight movements for 2010 to 2016. The forecast presented here replaces both the 7-year forecast issued in February 2010 and the 2-year update issued in May 2010.

For this update, two changes have been made: the assumptions on economic growth have been updated using economic forecasts available in mid-August; and the traffic baseline has been re-aligned to take into account traffic to the end of July. The April and May traffic data have notably been adjusted when forecasting to amend the impact of the ash-cloud and to help identify the underlying trend more clearly (see Annex H in Ref. 3). For all other input assumptions see the description in Annex D of Ref. 2.

The forecast method is similar to the one used in the EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast published in February 2010. The effect of aviation’s participation in the Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) from 2012 on passenger demand has been analysed in previous forecasts, but for the first time, the effect is integrated into this forecast3. More details on the method are given in Annex A of Ref. 2.

This report contains a summary and discussion of the forecast, including geographical definitions (Annex A, Annex B), economic and ETS assumptions (Annex C), forecast details for Europe as a whole (Annex D) and annual total forecasts per State (Annex E). Further forecast details at different geographical levels are available on-line through the STATFOR Interactive Dashboard (Ref. 4), replacing the lengthy tables that were previously published as a ‘volume 2’ for this document.

Together with this report, STATFOR prepared a medium-term forecast of the service units based on the medium-term forecast of flights (Ref. 1).

STATFOR also prepares a long-term flight forecast (20 years). The current edition, published in November 2008, is available in summary on the STATFOR web pages (Ref. 5). It will be updated by the end of this year.

3 For more information about the ETS effect modelling contact [email protected]


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2. TRAFFIC TRENDS IN 2010

European traffic growth started to recover slowly at the end of the first quarter of 2010, finally breaking with the decreases caused by the global economic recession which started in mid-2008. The rebound was a long time coming, because the economic recovery in Europe arrived more slowly than expected, and the ash cloud severely affected traffic in April.

The global economic recession started in 2008 and had a severe impact on the aviation sector in 2009 as traffic in Europe recorded its fastest decline on record with a 6.6% drop in flights year-on-year.

For the first seven months of 2010, the number of IFR flights in Europe (ESRA084) decrease by less than 0.5% compared to the same period last year.

Aircraft operators continued to suffer during the first (hectic) half of the year: the bad weather conditions and occasional industrial action in January and February hampered the return to growth. However, this was nothing compared to the effect of the ash cloud due to the eruption of the Eyjafjallajökull volcano in April and May. In April, the ash-related closures of European airspace caused the cancellation of around 100,000 flights, corresponding to 1% fewer flights over the year in total (Ref. 3).

The traffic growth recovery finally settled in Europe since May. Figure 3 shows recent traffic is following the high-growth range of the February forecast (Ref. 2). Indeed, in June and July, traffic growth stabilised at around +3%, a rate not seen since April 2008.

Figure 3. Last three months of 2010 traffic have been ahead of the central forecast published in February (Source: EUROCONTROL).

If traffic in Europe as a whole is recovering slowly, some States are not out of the woods yet. UK and Ireland suffered more than the average from the ash crisis and underwent important traffic cut backs (especially domestic traffic): between January

4 See Annex A for definition.



and July 2010, the two States recorded declines in local5 traffic of 6% (UK) and 13% (Ireland) year-to-date. Over the same period, France saw a decrease of 3% in local traffic growth (compared to the same period 2009, Figure 4).

Turkey is one of the rare States reporting a double digit figure in terms of traffic growth (+18% for the first seven months of the year, year-on-year), regardless of the crises (ash cloud or economy, see Annex C.1). Germany, also benefiting from stronger economic growth, showed a rebound in growth of around 5% over the May to July period (compared to same months last year).

Figure 5 shows traffic growth to the top 6 destinations outside Europe. In January-March, all but the US flows were back in growth (in terms of additional flights compared to 12 months before). However, global traffic was not immune to the April ash crisis, Morocco being the rare exception. More recently, traffic from Russia became again the fastest-growing external flow for Europe. In July, all these six destinations are now back in growth, including the US flow which had not been positive for 2 years.

During the first half of 2010, load factors have been consistently above the 2009 figures (except during the ash crisis), reaching record highs. In particular, this Summer, passenger growth ran ahead of airlines’ capacity growth. During the last week of July, AEA reported a record load factor of 81% (Figure 6).

Figure 7 shows the growth per market segment for the last few years. Since the beginning of the winter timetable in late October 2009, strongest increases in growth have been observed for low-cost traffic (+6%) and business aviation (+5%). Although carriers have been reporting a strong recovery in cargo in terms of tonne-km, all-cargo flights showed more limited recovery (+0.6%) compared to the first seven-month period of 2009. Scheduled and charter traffic declined by 3% and 4% (respectively) since the beginning of the year (compared to the same period in 2009). Part of these declines is related to the ash-cloud crisis; more recently (May to July), scheduled traffic levels were comparable to the same period last year breaking the 21 months in a row of decline.

Oil prices have fluctuated between $70 and $85 per barrel since the beginning of the year, well below the 2008 peaks. These relatively high prices, together with negative currency effects (€) resulted in a 30% increase in the prices of both kerosene and the Brent benchmark in euro terms between January and August 2010. This adds to the operating costs and remains a burden for most European operators (which hedging might reduce but not eliminate).

Even if the financial performance of the European airlines has been challenged by the airspace closure (volcano) in April, most major European airlines managed to reduce their losses during the second quarter of 2010. This was notably explained by the higher revenues in passenger and cargo business but results also from fundamental cost-cutting measures implemented by operators. Despite a recovery in demand patterns, uncertainty regarding the short-term economic outlook in Europe and elsewhere weighs on industry’s optimism and “caution is the rule” for the second half of 2010. Some European carriers have published busier schedules6 for winter 2010 than winter 2009 (basically, the re-instatement of the capacity cancelled during last winter)

5 ‘Local’ traffic movements refer to international arrivals and departures, and internals. 6 From OAG schedule data dated August 2010



Figure 4. Most of the States in Europe saw little growth in local traffic since the beginning of 2010. (Source: EUROCONTROL).

Units: Additional IFR movements/day compared to January to July 2010 period, overflights excluded.

Note: Shows only States with more than 100 local movements/day.

Figure 5. Changes in flows from and to the top 6 extra-European destinations. (Source: EUROCONTROL).

Figure 6. Load factors reached their highest in 2010, except during the ash crisis. (Source: AEA).

Figure 7. In July, nearly all market segments have exited from downturn. (Source: EUROCONTROL).



3. GROWTH IN IFR MOVEMENTS TO 2016

3.1 Summary of growth

The forecast update (MTF10b) is for 11.5 million IFR movements in Europe in 2016, 22% more than in 2009. The traffic growth has been revised upwards for 2010 since the last publication, indicating that the recovery came sooner than expected. In 2011, the number of IFR movements in Europe will be comparable to pre-recession levels with around 10 million flights. From 2012, the growth rates will be around 3%, which remains below the long-term historical average. The average growth rate over the 7 years is for 2.9% per year.

Figure 8 summarises the forecast results for Europe (ESRA08 – see Annex A). The forecast is for 11.5 million IFR movements in 2016, 22% more than in 2009. At the end of the period, the high-and low-growth scenarios differ by 1 million movements (Section 3.5).

Figure 8. Summary of the forecast for the Europe (ESRA087).

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

AAGR 2016/ 2009

H . . . . . 9,664 10,373 10,829 11,197 11,618 12,065 12,508 4.1%

B 9,218 9,561 10,043 10,083 9,413 9,561 10,014 10,327 10,610 10,909 11,213 11,518 2.9%

IFR Flight

Movements (Thousands)

L . . . . . 9,456 9,617 9,811 9,991 10,198 10,400 10,592 1.7%

H . . . . . 2.7% 7.3% 4.4% 3.4% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 4.1%

B . 3.7% 5.0% 0.4% -6.6% 1.6% 4.7% 3.1% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.9%

Annual Growth (Compared to

previous year) L . . . . . 0.5% 1.7% 2.0% 1.8% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7%

7 Eurocontrol Statistical Reference Area in the 2008 composition is now used in the STATFOR Medium-Term forecasts (see Annex A).



3.2 Short-term outlook (2010 & 2011)

The short-term forecast published in May (see Ref. 6) highlighted the risk that, although the forecast suggested a weak growth (less than 1%) for 2010, there were upside risks due to high load factors and a low baseline from which traffic was growing. The recent summer resurgence in growth, saw these risks become realities and the number of flights in Europe in 2010 is likely to end around 1.6% above 2009 (Figure 9). Most of the busiest European States will recover in 2010, but UK and Ireland, strongly affected by the ash-cloud episode, still lag behind. A large part of the Eastern European States shows growth rates greater than the European average.

The 2010 forecast growth rate of 1.6% (±2.2 percentage points) is still below the typical pre-recession rates of growth (around 3-4%) but the recovery will strengthen in 2011 with a forecast for Europe to 4.7%. The reason for such a strong growth is essentially explained by a bounce-back from April 2010 lost flights (volcanic ash). The range between the 2011 high-growth (+7.3%) and low-growth (+1.4%) scenarios is still wide, in particular due to the instability of the current economic situation.

Figure 9. Apart from UK and Ireland which were most affected by the ash-cloud, recovery is expected in 2010 for all States in Europe (ESRA087).



3.3 Medium-term outlook (2012 onwards)

The forecast in 2012 is expected to be for a lower growth in 2012 than in 2011 with a value of 3.1% (± 2.4%). A higher growth was expected for 2012 due to the leap-year effect and major sport events taking place in Europe (e.g London Olympics, European football cup). However, these boosting effects will be compensated by a 2011 strong growth (+1% extra growth because of ash-cloud) and the effects of the aviation industry joining the EU Emission Trading Scheme (ETS) to limit the total greenhouse gases emissions from 2012. The demand for passenger flights (ETS covered) is estimated to be reduced—due to airlines passing the additional ETS costs onto passengers--by around 17 thousand in 2012, which is about 0.2% of the forecast number of flights (see Annex C.2). The biggest changes in passenger demand in growth terms owing to ETS are likely to happen in the first years of the introduction of the scheme.

In the later years, the growth is likely to remain around 2.8-3.1% per year and average over the 7 years at 2.9% annually.

Traffic development is not uniform across the region. The growth (in percentage terms) remains, as in recent years, relatively stronger in the East (see Figure 1). In contrast, in terms of the number of additional movements per day, the traffic will increase the most in the big economies in the West (eg. Germany, France and Italy) but also in Turkey, which is forecast to see one of the strongest traffic growths in Europe (see Figure 10).

Figure 10. Number of additional movements per day for each State (2016 versus 2009)



3.4 Risks to the Forecast

Users of the forecast are strongly advised to use the forecast range (low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. This forecast is prepared in the conditions of an uncertain exit from a serious economic downturn which has a major effect on traffic growth.

The main sources of uncertainty in the forecast are:

• This forecast is prepared during a fragile economic recovery. The established end of the economic downturn and the speed of recovery are the major prerequisites of future forecast growth in air traffic. The economic forecasts (Annex C.1) were updated in August 2010 as their contribution to the forecast model is important. Nevertheless, the situation remains very uncertain and the low- and high-growth scenarios may not entirely capture the risks in the economies on both side of the Atlantic.

• Network and route changes. The forecast is sensitive to changing overflight patterns. These are discussed in Section 3 of Ref. 2, and have often been the source of errors in the forecast.

• Tourism trends are quite variable. The medium-term forecast aims to be accurate over the seven-year period, rather than identifying which will be the new holiday “destination of preference” in a given year.

• Oil prices remain changeable with oil being increasingly an item of speculation and investment. With fuel accounting for 25-35% or even more of costs of the airlines, this can have an effect on fares and cost of travel for customer. In this forecast, changes in price of oil are not factored in.

• Participation of aviation in the Emission Trading Scheme is now integrated into the forecast. But other regulatory measures such as new tax regimes or further environmental limits contribute to the uncertainty of air transport growth.

• Terrorist attacks, wars and natural disasters. The last seven years have not been quiet ones for aviation. There is no reason to believe the next seven years will be uneventful, with the effects of a further volcano eruption or an H1N1 flu pandemic being some of the risks. The impact on air traffic could be a temporary one, or more significant.

• Local effects. Many local changes are significant to particular airports, but less so at the annual, State level. Some effects, such as the transfer of Fedex operations from Frankfurt to Köln are modelled, but there could be others which have not.



3.5 Comparison with previous forecast (February publication)

The updated medium-term forecast starts above the MTF10. At the approach of the end of the year, the forecast range for 2010 has narrowed. Overall, the new forecast is comparable in 2016 with the February forecast.

Figure 11 shows the updated forecast (MTF10b) for the ESRA088 compared with the forecast from February (MTF10). While the actual traffic in 2009 is still used as the baseline for the MTF10b, this September re-alignment with the short-term forecast brings much more certainty about the out-turn for 2010: in the upper half of the February forecast range.

As traffic growth increased in the recent months, contrasting with the trend observed at the beginning of the year, the first year of the forecast (2010) is 0.8% higher than in the MTF10. The 2010 forecast growth is now 1.6% above the 2009 baseline (around 150 thousand more movements).

MTF10b forecasts a traffic growth of 4.7% in 2011 (+1.5 percentage point compared to MTF10). This revision upwards is driven by the bounce-back from lost flights in April 2010 and a weak economic recovery and, according to latest short-term forecast (Ref. 6), both the downside and upside risks make the forecast range larger than what it was (3.6 percentage points wider).

In the following years, the traffic growth is expected to come back to slower growth rates to those forecast in MTF10. In 2012, the end of the rebound and the ETS participation are likely to curb the traffic growth, in spite of the expected boosting effects (amongst which leap-year and sports events). The 2012 growth has been reduced to 3.1% (compared to 3.7% in the February forecast). In the final periods of the forecast horizon (from 2013), the growth is slightly weaker compared to the February ones (just below 3% compared to just above 3%). The forecast demand for flights being slightly higher in this update (compared to February publication, see Figure 11) leads to higher level of congestion at already constrained airports.

The average annual growth rates for the whole forecast period in MTF10b are comparable to the MTF10 ones (2.9%). The upwards revision in the first years coupled with comparable growth in the late years means that by 2016 the updated forecast is around 0.6 percentage points above the February version.

8 This comparison is done for ESRA08.



Figure 11. Forecast for the ESRA08 is revised upwards compared to last February one. Note: MTF10: grey lines, MTF10b: blue lines, base scenario: solid lines, Low/High scenario: dashed lines.



4. GLOSSARY

AAGR Average annual growth AEA Association of European Airlines B (in tables) Baseline Scenario CFMU Eurocontrol Central Flow Management Unit CRCO Eurocontrol Central Route Charges Office ESRA Eurocontrol Statistical Reference Area (see Annex A) ETS Emission Trading Scheme EU27 European Union (27 States) FAB Functional Airspace Block FIR Flight Information Region GDP Gross Domestic Product H (in tables) High-Growth Scenario IFR Instrument Flight Rules L (in tables) Low-Growth Scenario MTF Medium-Term Forecast MTF10 February 2010 publication of the MTF MTF10b September 2010 publication of the MTF SES Single European Sky SID STATFOR Interactive Dashboard STATFOR Eurocontrol Statistics and Forecast Service STF Short-Term Forecast TR Traffic Region (a grouping of TZs) TZ Traffic Zone (≈State, except for Spain, Portugal, Belgium and

Luxembourg, Serbia and Montenegro) UIR Upper Flight Information Region

Detailed explanations of the above terms are available in EUROCONTROL Glossary for Flight Statistics & Forecasts (Ref. 7).



ANNEX A. EUROCONTROL STATISTICAL REFERENCE AREA

The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area (ESRA) is designed to include as much as possible of the ECAC area for which data are available from a range of sources within the Agency (CRCO, CFMU and STATFOR) sources. It is used for high-level reports from the Agency, when referring to 'total Europe'. The ESRA changes only slowly with time; a region is added to the ESRA only when there is a full year's data from all sources, so that growth calculations are possible. In this report, the new ‘ESRA08’ definition illustrated in the map below is used for the first time (see Ref. 8 for more detail). Note that the EUROCONTROL forecast includes also regions outside of the ESRA (e.g. Armenia or Georgia).

Figure 12. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area.

The regions may be taken as referring to FIRs and UIRs or the airspace volumes of ACCs and other control centres. In the medium-term forecast, traffic zones are represented by an aggregate of FIRs & UIR of States. These do not take delegation of airspace into account. The differences between charging areas and ACCs can have a big impact on overflight counts (and thus on total counts where the total is dominated by overflights). For the ESRA as a whole, there is only a small proportion of overflights, so that the difference between an FIR and an ACC definition is small.



ANNEX B. TRAFFIC REGION DEFINITIONS

B.1 Traffic regions

For this forecast, traffic flows are described as being to or from one of a number of traffic regions listed in Figure 13 (for example in Figure 21). Each region is made up of a number of traffic zones. Traffic zones are indicated in the table for brevity by the first letters of the ICAO location codes.

The traffic regions are defined for statistical convenience and do not reflect an official position of the EUROCONTROL Agency.

The ESRA was defined in the previous section. For flow purposes, this is split into a “North-West” region mostly of mature air traffic markets, a “Mediterranean” region stretching from the Canaries to Turkey and with a significant tourist element, and an Eastern region.

The ‘Other region’ includes the Baltic States and Oceanic. The Former CIS Region includes Armenia and Azerbaijan (members of ECAC). In time these will join the ESRA.

More details are available in STATFOR Geographical Hierarchy document (Ref. 8).

Figure 13. Regions used in flow statistics.

ICAO region/country

ESRA

ESRA1 ESRA North-West EB, ED, EF, EG, EH, EI, EK, EL, EN, ES, ET, LF, LN, LO, LS

ESRA2 ESRA Mediterranean GC, LC, LE, LG, LI, LM, LP, LT

ESRA3 ESRA East BK, EP, LA, LB, LD, LH, LJ, LK, LQ, LR, LU, LW, LY, LZ, UK

World 1 North Atlantic BG, BI, C, EK, K, P

World 2 Middle-East O, L

World 3 North-Africa DA, DT, GM, HE, HL, HS

World 4 Southern Africa D, F, G, H, MR (except DA, DT, HE, HL, HS, GM, GE, and ESRA states)

World 5 Far-East R,V, W, Z, (except ZZZZ)

World 6 Oceania KG, N, P, Y

World 7 Mid-Atlantic M; T (except MR)

World 8 South-Atlantic S

World 9 Former CIS Region U (excluding Ukraine which is now part of ESRA08)

Other Other EE, EN (Bodo Oc), EV, EY, GE, LP (Santa Maria FIR), LX



B.2 Functional Airspace Blocks

On top of the traffic zones, this report also presents the forecast of IFR movements from 2010 to 2016 for Functional Airspace Blocks (FAB). FABs are blocks of airspace9 based on operational requirements regardless of the States boundaries (Figure 14).

Figure 14. Nine FABs are currently defined in the SES package.

The definition of the FAB is available on-line through the STATFOR Interactive Dashboard (Ref. 4). Note that the NUAC block is currently included in the NEFAB in STATFOR results.

9 Further information at www.skybrary.aero/index.php/Functional_Airspace_Block_(FAB)



ANNEX C. SUMMARY OF FORECAST ASSUMPTIONS

The only changes to the assumptions since February are in the economic and ETS assumptions. For all other assumptions see Annex D of the February forecast (Ref. 2).

C.1 Economic Growth

For reference, the economic growth inputs are summarised in Figure 17. These all come from a single coherent source, Oxford Economics Ltd., and were last updated in August 2010. The low- and high-growth scenarios are developed as variations around these forecasts.

GDP growth is one of the major factors of the air traffic growth in the MTF model. Figure 15 illustrates how the economic outlook has changed since the MTF10 produced seven months ago. The forecast economic growth for EU27 is comparable to the one issued in February: it is now slightly higher for 2010 (+0.3 percentage point) and slightly lower for 2011 (-0.3 percentage point). Then, it remains slightly lower for 2012 and comparable in the later years.

Figure 15. GDP forecast for EU27 has been slightly revised compared to February.



Figure 16 shows the changes between February and September economic forecasts at States level. In August, one-third of the States has seen their 2010 growth revised downwards with biggest decrease for Greece, Romania and Portugal. But, biggest economies having been slightly revised upwards (Germany, France, UK and Benelux), the EU growth has benefited from the same change consequently. Turkey and Ukraine are the fastest growing States within ESRA until the end of the period (Figure 17).

Figure 16. Summary of changes in GDP forecasts for 2010-2016: biggest revisions happen for 2010 and 2011.



Figure 17. GDP Growth by Traffic Zone. Source: 1993-2004 from STATFOR records. 2005 onwards from Oxford Economics Ltd, Aug10 Comments: Real GDP Growth in local currency. Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 16/08/2010

Actual Base

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Albania 6.1% 6.8% 3.3% 2.8% 3.3% 3.8% 4.2% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5%

Armenia 14% 6.8% ( 14%) 1.5% 3.1% 6.0% 5.5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

Austria 3.4% 1.8% -3.4% 1.2% 1.6% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8%

Azerbaijan 25% 11% 9.3% 5.3% 9.0% 7.0% 6.2% 8.0% 8.0% 7.7%

Belarus 8.6% 10% 0.2% 2.7% 4.8% 5.6% 3.6% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3%

Belgium/Luxembourg 2.8% 0.8% -2.6% 1.8% 2.0% 2.3% 2.7% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0%

Bosnia-Herzegovina 5.9% 5.4% -3.5% 0.3% 3.7% 6.1% 5.7% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

Bulgaria 6.2% 6.1% -4.9% -1.1% 3.5% 5.9% 6.9% 6.8% 6.0% 5.5%

Canary Islands 3.6% 0.9% -3.6% -0.2% 0.2% 0.9% 1.7% 2.0% 2.2% 1.9%

Croatia 5.5% 2.4% -5.8% -0.5% 2.6% 4.5% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5% 4.3%

Cyprus 5.1% 3.6% -1.7% -0.3% 1.8% 2.8% 3.8% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4%

Czech Republic 6.1% 2.3% -4.0% 1.4% 2.6% 3.9% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 3.7%

Denmark 1.7% -0.9% -4.7% 1.0% 2.2% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.2% 2.1%

Estonia 7.2% -3.6% ( 14%) 0.5% 3.6% 5.2% 5.5% 5.0% 5.0% 4.8%

FYROM 5.8% 5.5% -0.7% 1.5% 3.2% 4.5% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 3.3%

Finland 5.2% 1.0% -8.0% 0.4% 3.0% 4.0% 3.6% 3.2% 3.0% 2.8%

France 2.3% 0.1% -2.5% 1.2% 1.7% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.8%

Georgia 12% 2.4% -4.0% 2.3% 4.7% 7.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 5.1%

Germany 2.6% 1.0% -4.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.9% 2.2% 2.3% 2.2% 1.8%

Greece 4.5% 2.0% -2.0% -4.3% -3.2% -0.1% 1.3% 1.5% 1.6% 1.5%

Hungary 1.0% 0.4% -6.2% 1.3% 2.4% 4.5% 4.9% 4.4% 4.1% 3.7%

Iceland 6.0% 1.0% -6.5% -2.6% 2.4% 3.5% 3.5% 3.2% 3.0% 3.0%

Ireland 5.6% -3.5% -7.6% -0.5% 2.4% 4.0% 3.3% 3.8% 4.0% 3.5%

Italy 1.4% -1.3% -5.0% 0.9% 1.0% 1.3% 1.4% 1.4% 1.7% 1.4%

Latvia 10% -4.6% ( 18%) -2.3% 2.7% 4.5% 6.8% 7.2% 6.6% 5.3%

Lisbon FIR 2.4% -0.0% -2.6% -1.1% -1.5% 1.1% 1.4% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6%

Lithuania 9.8% 2.8% ( 15%) 0.2% 3.9% 5.1% 6.4% 7.0% 7.0% 5.8%

Malta 3.8% 2.1% -1.9% 2.3% 2.1% 2.8% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%

Moldova 3.0% 7.2% -6.5% 1.5% 3.4% 5.5% 5.9% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%

Netherlands 3.9% 1.9% -3.9% 1.4% 2.0% 2.4% 2.6% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0%

Norway 2.8% 1.7% -1.5% 0.6% 2.4% 2.6% 2.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%

Poland 6.8% 5.0% 1.9% 3.0% 3.4% 4.7% 5.3% 5.0% 4.6% 4.6%

Romania 6.3% 7.5% -6.9% -2.7% -1.0% 4.8% 6.1% 6.2% 6.1% 5.7%

Santa Maria FIR 2.4% -0.0% -2.6% -1.1% -1.5% 1.1% 1.4% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6%

Serbia&Montenegro 6.9% 5.5% -3.0% 1.5% 3.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0% 5.0%

Slovakia 11% 6.4% -4.7% 3.1% 3.9% 5.1% 5.1% 4.3% 4.0% 3.7%

Slovenia 6.9% 3.3% -8.1% 0.8% 1.5% 2.2% 2.4% 3.1% 3.8% 3.8%

Spain 3.6% 0.9% -3.6% -0.2% 0.2% 0.9% 1.7% 2.0% 2.2% 1.9%

Sweden 3.4% -0.6% -5.0% 2.8% 2.5% 3.1% 2.2% 1.8% 2.3% 2.4%

Switzerland 3.6% 1.8% -1.4% 1.8% 1.7% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6%

Turkey 4.8% 0.9% -4.8% 6.2% 5.8% 7.1% 6.8% 6.4% 6.1% 5.7%

UK 2.7% -0.1% -4.9% 1.5% 2.1% 2.7% 3.2% 3.1% 2.9% 2.4%

Ukraine 7.6% 2.3% ( 15%) 3.7% 4.0% 7.7% 8.5% 6.5% 5.3% 5.0%



C.2 European Union Emission Trading Scheme (EU ETS)

The aviation industry will join the EU ETS from 201210. The overall goal of the ETS being to limit the greenhouse emissions, aircraft operators of nearly all IFR flights departing from/arriving at aerodromes in any European Community Member State will need to surrender allowances equal to their CO2 emissions from aviation activities.

The model used to assess the effect of ETS on traffic demand in this forecast is described in a STATFOR study published in March11 (Ref. 9, available upon request). In summary, the method is in three steps:

1. Determination of the total amount of emissions from the aviation industry covered by the ETS,

2. Determination of the allowances in excess of those allocated for free and distribution to flights and passengers,

3. Estimation of the induced increase in fares (conversion of the excess allowances into monetary terms) and consequential reduction in demand.

The modelling has been performed on passenger flights only (excluding business aviation flights) accounting for around 85% of all IFR flights in Europe. The study took a conservative assumption of just 7% efficiency improvement per flight (e.g more efficient traffic management, changes in fleet mix and use) between now and 2016, which corresponds to 1% per year, i.e. below ICAO and IATA targets.

Figure 18 summarises the estimated reduction in passenger demand for flights due to increase in prices of tickets in consequence of airlines passing onto their customers their additional expenses because of their participation in the EU ETS.

Figure 18. The reduction in demand for flights up to 2016 due to airlines passing the additional ETS costs onto passengers is likely to be limited. Note: Reduction in passenger demand for flights due to aviation’s participation in the ETS

ETS relevant for passenger flights only (limited to all IFR flights arriving at or departing from any Community Member State aerodrome only, business aviation excluded).

IFR mvts (000s) Relative

Low Base High Low Base High

2012 -9.6 -17.1 -20 -0.1% -0.2% -0.3%

2013 -11.2 -19.7 -23.7 -0.2% -0.3% -0.3%

2014 -13.2 -22.2 -28.9 -0.2% -0.3% -0.4%

2015 -13.9 -24.7 -35.6 -0.2% -0.3% -0.5%

2016 -16.7 -28.5 -42.3 -0.2% -0.4% -0.5%

10 Directive 2008/101/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council of 19 November 2008. 11 Contact [email protected]



ANNEX D. SUMMARY OF THE FORECAST FOR THE ESRA12

Figure 19. Growth in the ESRA.

12 Eurocontrol Statistical Reference Area in the new 2008 composition used for the first time in the MTF10 (Annex A).



Figure 20. Traffic on the main flow categories for the ESRA.

IFR Movements(000s) Annual Growth

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

AAGR 2016/ 2009

H . . . . . 7,713 8,242 8,574 8,829 9,127 9,445 9,752 . . . . . 1.5% 6.8% 4.0% 3.0% 3.4% 3.5% 3.3% 3.6%

B 7,640 7,903 8,241 8,182 7,602 7,631 7,956 8,175 8,367 8,574 8,786 8,995 . 3.4% 4.3% -0.7% -7.1% 0.4% 4.2% 2.8% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% Total: Internal

L . . . . . 7,549 7,644 7,769 7,881 8,016 8,151 8,277 . . . . . -0.7% 1.3% 1.6% 1.4% 1.7% 1.7% 1.5% 1.2%

H . . . . . 1,834 2,002 2,118 2,224 2,340 2,460 2,587 . . . . . 7.2% 9.2% 5.8% 5.0% 5.2% 5.1% 5.1% 6.1%

B 1,519 1,590 1,721 1,807 1,711 1,814 1,935 2,022 2,106 2,192 2,278 2,367 . 4.7% 8.2% 5.0% -5.3% 6.1% 6.7% 4.5% 4.2% 4.1% 3.9% 3.9% 4.7% Total: Arr/Dep

L . . . . . 1,793 1,854 1,918 1,981 2,047 2,109 2,170 . . . . . 4.8% 3.4% 3.5% 3.3% 3.3% 3.0% 2.9% 3.5%

H . . . . . 117 129 137 144 152 160 169 . . . . . 16% 11% 5.9% 5.4% 5.5% 5.4% 5.5% 7.7%

B 59 67 81 94 100 115 124 130 136 143 149 156 . 14% 20% 16% 7.1% 15% 7.4% 5.1% 4.7% 4.7% 4.5% 4.6% 6.5% Total: Overflight

L . . . . . 114 119 124 130 135 140 146 . . . . . 13% 4.6% 4.5% 4.1% 4.1% 3.9% 4.0% 5.5%

H . . . . . 9,664 10,373 10,829 11,197 11,618 12,065 12,508 . . . . . 2.7% 7.3% 4.4% 3.4% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 4.1%

B 9,218 9,561 10,043 10,083 9,413 9,561 10,014 10,327 10,610 10,909 11,213 11,518 . 3.7% 5.0% 0.4% -6.6% 1.6% 4.7% 3.1% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.9% Grand Total

L . . . . . 9,456 9,617 9,811 9,991 10,198 10,400 10,592 . . . . . 0.5% 1.7% 2.0% 1.8% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7%

Units: IFR Movements (thousands) and growth compared to the previous year.

Source: AP2 Forecast dated: 20AUG10; M-LTF: 662; TZ-AP2 Baseline: 635; STF: 669.



Figure 21. Traffic and growth on the biggest region-to-region flows through the ESRA.

IFR Movements(000s) Annual Growth

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

AAGR 2016/ 2009

H . . . . . 3637.1 3857.8 3981.1 4071.6 4172.1 4279.9 4391.4 . . . . . -0.8% 6.1% 3.2% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%

B 3878.2 3934.1 3995.6 3973.1 3665.3 3602.0 3737.5 3822.4 3884.9 3955.8 4028.9 4100.5 . 1.4% 1.6% -0.6% -7.7% -1.7% 3.8% 2.3% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.6%

1 ESRA North-W ESRA North-W

L . . . . . 3566.1 3607.8 3660.4 3694.6 3736.9 3780.4 3822.4 . . . . . -2.7% 1.2% 1.5% 0.9% 1.1% 1.2% 1.1% 0.6%

H . . . . . 1611.8 1742.8 1805.4 1855.4 1910.1 1968.0 2024.4 . . . . . 4.1% 8.1% 3.6% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 2.9% 3.9%

B 1569.7 1606.0 1709.5 1684.3 1548.8 1592.5 1679.0 1719.5 1756.8 1794.3 1833.0 1870.6 . 2.3% 6.4% -1.5% -8.0% 2.8% 5.4% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 2.7%

2 ESRA Mediter ESRA North-W

L . . . . . 1571.0 1597.3 1618.3 1639.9 1665.6 1689.9 1710.8 . . . . . 1.4% 1.7% 1.3% 1.3% 1.6% 1.5% 1.2% 1.4%

H . . . . . 1489.9 1572.9 1639.5 1690.6 1758.3 1831.6 1887.5 . . . . . 3.1% 5.6% 4.2% 3.1% 4.0% 4.2% 3.1% 3.9%

B 1375.1 1471.4 1573.3 1518.2 1445.0 1477.2 1522.9 1560.4 1605.1 1650.1 1695.1 1739.0 . 7.0% 6.9% -3.5% -4.8% 2.2% 3.1% 2.5% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.6% 2.7%

3 ESRA Mediter ESRA Mediter

L . . . . . 1465.3 1470.4 1483.4 1506.8 1536.7 1567.5 1594.9 . . . . . 1.4% 0.3% 0.9% 1.6% 2.0% 2.0% 1.7% 1.4%

H . . . . . 526.2 576.2 614.6 644.0 679.0 715.5 754.4 . . . . . 2.5% 9.5% 6.7% 4.8% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 5.6%

B 456.7 495.5 528.6 560.0 513.5 517.4 547.1 574.2 595.5 620.5 645.8 671.8 . 8.5% 6.7% 5.9% -8.3% 0.8% 5.7% 4.9% 3.7% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9%

4 ESRA East ESRA North-W

L . . . . . 509.9 520.9 538.7 552.8 569.4 585.5 601.5 . . . . . -0.7% 2.1% 3.4% 2.6% 3.0% 2.8% 2.7% 2.3%

H . . . . . 312.0 333.5 345.5 357.8 370.9 384.5 399.8 . . . . . 0.9% 6.9% 3.6% 3.6% 3.7% 3.7% 4.0% 3.7%

B 312.3 321.2 339.6 341.4 309.1 309.1 325.1 334.1 342.3 351.0 359.5 368.6 . 2.8% 5.7% 0.5% -9.5% 0.0% 5.2% 2.8% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5%

5 ESRA North-W North Atlant

L . . . . . 306.4 314.3 321.0 326.9 332.5 337.6 343.1 . . . . . -0.9% 2.6% 2.1% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5% 1.6% 1.5%

H . . . . . 242.9 263.3 284.0 301.6 321.8 343.3 367.0 . . . . . 2.1% 8.4% 7.8% 6.2% 6.7% 6.7% 6.9% 6.4%

B 214.1 227.4 240.2 248.5 237.8 239.8 251.2 265.9 278.6 292.8 307.4 322.8 . 6.2% 5.6% 3.5% -4.3% 0.8% 4.7% 5.9% 4.8% 5.1% 5.0% 5.0% 4.5%

6 ESRA East ESRA East

L . . . . . 237.0 241.1 250.7 259.4 268.9 278.2 287.8 . . . . . -0.3% 1.7% 4.0% 3.4% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 2.8%

H . . . . . 230.8 251.8 266.8 280.7 295.5 310.5 326.9 . . . . . 8.6% 9.1% 6.0% 5.2% 5.3% 5.1% 5.3% 6.4%

B 176.9 185.6 202.5 210.9 212.5 229.1 246.4 258.0 270.1 282.3 294.0 306.5 . 5.0% 9.1% 4.1% 0.8% 7.8% 7.6% 4.7% 4.7% 4.5% 4.2% 4.2% 5.4%

7 ESRA North-W North-Africa

L . . . . . 227.1 238.2 247.4 256.5 266.3 276.0 286.3 . . . . . 6.9% 4.9% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% 3.6% 3.7% 4.4%

H . . . . . 205.6 228.9 249.2 265.7 285.2 306.4 327.8 . . . . . 7.4% 11% 8.9% 6.6% 7.3% 7.4% 7.0% 8.0%

B 146.6 168.8 194.1 198.0 191.5 202.5 217.8 232.7 246.3 260.7 275.8 290.9 . 15% 15% 2.0% -3.3% 5.7% 7.6% 6.8% 5.9% 5.8% 5.8% 5.5% 6.2%

8 ESRA East ESRA Mediter

L . . . . . 199.4 207.0 217.0 227.1 238.7 249.6 259.3 . . . . . 4.1% 3.8% 4.9% 4.7% 5.1% 4.6% 3.9% 4.4%

Units: IFR Movements (thousands) and growth compared to the previous year.

Source: AP2 Forecast dated: 20AUG10 ; M-LTF: 662; TZ-AP2 Baseline: 635; STF: 669..



ANNEX E. FUTURE TRAFFIC AND GROWTH

E.1 Summary of the Forecast. Annual IFR Movements 2005-2016.

Figure 22. Annual traffic per traffic zone and 2009-2016 average annual growth.

IFR Movements (000s)

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

AAGR 2016/ 2009

H . . . . . 183 203 213 222 231 241 250 6.5%

B 116 119 142 148 161 180 194 201 208 215 223 230 5.2%

Albania

L . . . . . 177 185 190 195 201 206 211 3.9%

H . . . . . 54 59 64 69 74 80 86 8.6%

B 42 43 48 52 48 53 55 59 64 68 73 78 7.0%

Armenia

L . . . . . 52 53 56 60 64 67 71 5.7%

H . . . . . 1,166 1,269 1,335 1,389 1,449 1,511 1,573 5.1%

B 1,049 1,092 1,180 1,204 1,113 1,151 1,221 1,266 1,307 1,350 1,393 1,436 3.7%

Austria

L . . . . . 1,136 1,164 1,193 1,221 1,251 1,279 1,304 2.3%

H . . . . . 119 132 143 154 166 179 192 8.5%

B . 92 95 108 108 117 125 134 143 153 164 174 7.0%

Azerbaijan

L . . . . . 116 121 128 136 144 153 161 5.9%

H . . . . . 197 215 229 243 258 273 289 6.8%

B 130 146 173 199 182 194 205 216 226 237 248 260 5.2%

Belarus

L . . . . . 192 195 203 211 219 227 234 3.7%

H . . . . . 1,043 1,120 1,164 1,202 1,244 1,286 1,330 3.9%

B 1,007 1,056 1,100 1,108 1,020 1,031 1,079 1,111 1,139 1,168 1,198 1,228 2.7%

Belgium/Luxembourg

L . . . . . 1,017 1,030 1,050 1,069 1,089 1,107 1,125 1.4%

H . . . . . 251 287 305 320 337 354 373 7.5%

B 159 168 201 218 224 247 274 286 299 311 324 336 5.9%

Bosnia-Herzegovina

L . . . . . 244 261 269 278 287 296 304 4.5%

H . . . . . 513 562 602 633 668 705 741 6.5%

B 395 402 444 478 477 506 538 567 596 622 648 673 5.1%

Bulgaria

L . . . . . 499 510 531 553 576 595 612 3.6%

H . . . . . 283 302 312 322 333 346 359 4.3%

B 291 303 308 307 267 280 292 297 303 310 318 325 2.9%

Canary Islands

L . . . . . 276 278 279 281 285 289 292 1.3%

H . . . . . 461 506 539 566 593 622 651 6.4%

B 331 339 398 422 422 454 483 506 527 548 569 589 4.9%

Croatia

L . . . . . 448 460 475 490 506 521 534 3.4%

H . . . . . 291 318 338 355 375 395 416 6.5%

B 209 217 242 272 268 287 305 320 334 347 361 376 5.0%

Cyprus

L . . . . . 284 291 301 311 322 331 340 3.5%

H . . . . . 677 728 770 805 846 889 934 5.4%

B 597 612 646 682 648 668 699 729 755 784 813 843 3.8%

Czech Republic

L . . . . . 659 666 687 705 725 743 762 2.3%




2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

AAGR 2016/ 2009

H . . . . . 609 661 683 701 721 741 763 4.1%

B 585 602 631 629 576 603 639 655 668 682 696 711 3.1%

Denmark

L . . . . . 595 612 623 631 639 648 657 1.9%

H . . . . . 161 177 186 196 206 217 228 5.9%

B 145 137 153 174 153 159 170 176 184 192 199 208 4.5%

Estonia

L . . . . . 156 161 166 172 177 183 188 3.0%

H . . . . . 132 151 158 165 173 181 189 6.1%

B 111 118 123 125 125 130 143 147 153 159 165 170 4.5%

FYROM

L . . . . . 128 135 138 142 146 150 155 3.1%

H . . . . . 245 264 274 282 291 301 311 3.7%

B 242 246 245 261 240 243 256 263 269 276 282 289 2.7%

Finland

L . . . . . 240 245 250 255 259 263 267 1.5%

H . . . . . 2,851 3,072 3,189 3,282 3,382 3,486 3,596 3.6%

B 2,747 2,854 3,025 3,020 2,801 2,818 2,963 3,041 3,110 3,182 3,253 3,326 2.5%

France

L . . . . . 2,783 2,834 2,879 2,919 2,968 3,016 3,063 1.3%

H . . . . . 90 100 108 114 121 129 137 8.5%

B 74 73 80 80 77 88 94 100 106 112 118 124 7.0%

Georgia

L . . . . . 87 90 95 100 105 110 115 5.8%

H . . . . . 3,027 3,277 3,408 3,524 3,655 3,790 3,929 4.3%

B 2,852 2,971 3,108 3,151 2,930 2,988 3,152 3,241 3,326 3,420 3,513 3,607 3.0%

Germany

L . . . . . 2,949 3,007 3,063 3,119 3,181 3,240 3,296 1.7%

H . . . . . 669 713 745 776 810 845 882 4.7%

B 548 566 621 643 638 660 682 702 726 750 775 801 3.3%

Greece

L . . . . . 652 652 663 679 697 714 730 1.9%

H . . . . . 636 687 728 765 806 850 893 5.7%

B 579 605 615 622 608 627 655 685 715 745 776 806 4.1%

Hungary

L . . . . . 618 623 644 665 688 709 729 2.6%

H . . . . . 103 113 119 125 130 135 141 4.9%

B 96 100 105 110 101 102 108 113 117 121 125 129 3.5%

Iceland

L . . . . . 101 104 108 111 113 116 119 2.3%

H . . . . . 521 568 597 625 657 692 731 4.7%

B 536 565 598 601 530 516 548 568 586 605 626 648 2.9%

Ireland

L . . . . . 510 526 539 549 561 572 584 1.4%

H . . . . . 1,727 1,862 1,947 2,021 2,102 2,190 2,278 4.7%

B 1,577 1,641 1,779 1,736 1,647 1,711 1,804 1,861 1,914 1,970 2,029 2,089 3.5%

Italy

L . . . . . 1,692 1,729 1,761 1,792 1,829 1,867 1,902 2.1%

H . . . . . 221 246 258 272 287 303 320 6.5%

B 155 176 202 225 206 217 236 244 255 266 278 290 5.0%

Latvia

L . . . . . 214 224 230 238 247 255 263 3.5%

H . . . . . 437 467 484 499 517 531 543 4.2%

B 380 401 427 438 406 432 451 461 471 480 488 497 2.9%

Lisbon FIR

L . . . . . 426 431 435 437 441 447 451 1.5%

H . . . . . 211 235 246 259 272 286 301 6.6%

B 163 173 195 219 192 208 224 232 242 252 262 272 5.1%

Lithuania

L . . . . . 204 213 218 226 233 240 247 3.7%




2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

AAGR 2016/ 2009

H . . . . . 94 105 111 118 125 133 142 7.6%

B 75 76 82 84 85 93 101 106 111 116 121 127 5.9%

Malta

L . . . . . 92 96 100 104 107 111 115 4.4%

H . . . . . 51 57 61 65 70 75 80 9.0%

B 26 28 35 41 44 50 54 57 60 64 67 71 7.2%

Moldova

L . . . . . 50 52 54 57 59 62 65 5.7%

H . . . . . 1,024 1,107 1,144 1,178 1,215 1,254 1,294 3.8%

B 996 1,056 1,108 1,090 996 1,012 1,070 1,097 1,122 1,149 1,175 1,203 2.7%

Netherlands

L . . . . . 1,001 1,028 1,047 1,064 1,082 1,099 1,116 1.6%

H . . . . . 541 575 596 613 633 653 675 3.6%

B 484 513 536 550 526 536 560 574 586 598 611 625 2.5%

Norway

L . . . . . 531 543 551 556 563 570 577 1.3%

H . . . . . 613 678 720 755 798 843 890 6.7%

B 423 491 556 612 566 606 653 683 710 741 773 806 5.2%

Poland

L . . . . . 598 626 646 666 688 709 731 3.7%

H . . . . . 477 527 566 602 643 688 734 7.8%

B 411 416 432 444 434 471 505 534 562 592 623 655 6.1%

Romania

L . . . . . 465 482 502 523 545 567 588 4.4%

H . . . . . 119 126 131 137 142 148 154 4.6%

B 106 107 109 116 113 118 120 124 128 132 136 140 3.2%

Santa Maria FIR

L . . . . . 116 115 117 120 122 125 128 1.8%

H . . . . . 559 625 660 690 722 756 790 6.4%

B 361 393 458 497 513 551 597 622 647 671 695 719 4.9%

Serbia&Montenegro

L . . . . . 543 569 586 604 623 640 656 3.6%

H . . . . . 373 421 446 468 494 520 548 7.2%

B 318 330 324 345 337 367 402 420 438 456 475 494 5.6%

Slovakia

L . . . . . 362 383 396 409 422 435 447 4.1%

H . . . . . 335 368 389 406 424 443 462 5.7%

B 257 267 306 327 313 330 351 366 380 393 406 419 4.2%

Slovenia

L . . . . . 326 334 343 353 363 372 380 2.8%

H . . . . . 1,638 1,760 1,817 1,864 1,927 1,992 2,057 3.8%

B 1,561 1,641 1,779 1,747 1,581 1,618 1,692 1,720 1,755 1,793 1,830 1,870 2.4%

Spain

L . . . . . 1,597 1,609 1,616 1,629 1,647 1,668 1,692 1.0%

H . . . . . 671 723 756 778 803 834 862 4.0%

B 664 689 708 736 654 665 699 724 741 758 782 802 2.9%

Sweden

L . . . . . 657 673 693 704 716 732 745 1.9%

H . . . . . 1,053 1,142 1,185 1,222 1,261 1,302 1,344 4.0%

B 1,008 1,032 1,093 1,096 1,018 1,041 1,101 1,129 1,155 1,184 1,212 1,241 2.9%

Switzerland

L . . . . . 1,027 1,050 1,066 1,082 1,101 1,119 1,136 1.6%

H . . . . . 982 1,095 1,180 1,240 1,307 1,378 1,434 7.6%

B 642 693 757 822 857 972 1,059 1,127 1,191 1,245 1,301 1,354 6.8%

Turkey

L . . . . . 961 1,018 1,071 1,125 1,182 1,230 1,270 5.8%

H . . . . . 429 480 517 544 576 609 643 7.9%

B 341 345 373 406 378 424 460 488 511 537 562 588 6.5%

Ukraine

L . . . . . 419 441 463 482 503 522 541 5.3%




2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

AAGR 2016/ 2009

H . . . . . 2,235 2,394 2,481 2,555 2,634 2,714 2,798 3.0%

B 2,385 2,465 2,550 2,514 2,278 2,212 2,319 2,385 2,437 2,495 2,552 2,609 2.0%

UK

L . . . . . 2,190 2,236 2,283 2,321 2,361 2,399 2,436 1.0%

H . . . . . 9,540 10,234 10,679 11,041 11,453 11,892 12,326 4.1%

B 9,088 9,439 9,916 9,954 9,301 9,437 9,880 10,185 10,462 10,755 11,053 11,351 2.9%

ESRA02

L . . . . . 9,333 9,487 9,675 9,851 10,053 10,250 10,438 1.7%

H . . . . . 8,973 9,622 10,024 10,356 10,738 11,142 11,553 4.0%

B 8,638 8,937 9,441 9,470 8,787 8,875 9,283 9,552 9,799 10,066 10,337 10,609 2.7%

EU27

L . . . . . 8,773 8,903 9,063 9,215 9,389 9,564 9,731 1.5%

H . . . . . 9,664 10,373 10,829 11,197 11,618 12,065 12,508 4.1%

B 9,218 9,561 10,043 10,083 9,413 9,561 10,014 10,327 10,610 10,909 11,213 11,518 2.9%

ESRA08

L . . . . . 9,456 9,617 9,811 9,991 10,198 10,400 10,592 1.7%

H . . . . . 9,342 10,012 10,431 10,779 11,175 11,596 12,025 4.0%

B 9,016 9,337 9,794 9,833 9,152 9,241 9,663 9,944 10,201 10,478 10,760 11,044 2.7%

SES

L . . . . . 9,137 9,273 9,442 9,599 9,780 9,961 10,136 1.5%

H . . . . . 689 760 807 847 894 944 997 6.5%

B . . . 704 644 681 730 764 794 829 865 902 4.9%

Baltic

L . . . . . 672 698 722 744 769 793 818 3.5%

H . . . . . 2,337 2,513 2,632 2,738 2,855 2,980 3,108 4.9%

B . . . 2,310 2,225 2,312 2,424 2,504 2,583 2,665 2,750 2,838 3.5%

Blue Med

L . . . . . 2,286 2,321 2,367 2,417 2,473 2,529 2,582 2.2%

H . . . . . 756 838 898 949 1,007 1,069 1,131 7.4%

B . . . 690 687 746 804 848 891 933 977 1,020 5.8%

Danube

L . . . . . 736 766 797 829 864 895 923 4.3%

H . . . . . 1,896 2,072 2,190 2,290 2,401 2,517 2,635 5.5%

B . . . 1,904 1,806 1,871 1,987 2,071 2,146 2,226 2,307 2,388 4.1%

FAB CE

L . . . . . 1,846 1,895 1,950 2,002 2,059 2,112 2,162 2.6%

H . . . . . 5,538 5,963 6,193 6,386 6,599 6,820 7,048 3.9%

B . . . 5,816 5,406 5,473 5,750 5,907 6,050 6,204 6,356 6,511 2.7%

FAB EC

L . . . . . 5,405 5,500 5,596 5,687 5,791 5,890 5,987 1.5%

H . . . . . 1,565 1,682 1,749 1,802 1,860 1,925 1,991 4.0%

B . . . 1,652 1,513 1,550 1,629 1,677 1,714 1,755 1,801 1,845 2.9%

NEFAB

L . . . . . 1,533 1,569 1,602 1,626 1,651 1,679 1,706 1.7%

H . . . . . 1,853 1,986 2,051 2,105 2,175 2,249 2,319 3.8%

B . . . 1,969 1,786 1,831 1,912 1,944 1,983 2,027 2,068 2,111 2.4%

SW Portugal - Spai

L . . . . . 1,808 1,819 1,827 1,842 1,863 1,887 1,911 1.0%

H . . . . . 2,270 2,431 2,522 2,600 2,684 2,770 2,862 3.1%

B . . 2,559 2,316 2,248 2,354 2,422 2,476 2,536 2,596 2,656 2.0%

UK-Ireland

L . . . . . 2,225 2,269 2,317 2,356 2,397 2,436 2,474 0.9%

Units: IFR Movements (thousands).




E.2 Summary of the Forecast. Growth Rates 2006-2016

Figure 23. Annual growth rates per traffic zone and 2009-2016 average annual growth.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

AAGR 2016/ 2009

H . . . . 13% 11% 4.9% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2% 4.0% 6.5%

B 2.7% 19% 4.5% 8.9% 11% 7.9% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5% 3.3% 3.2% 5.2% Albania

L . . . . 9.9% 4.4% 2.4% 2.7% 2.9% 2.7% 2.4% 3.9%

H . . . . 11% 9.6% 9.0% 7.6% 8.0% 7.9% 7.6% 8.6%

B 2.6% 11% 8.0% -6.7% 9.1% 4.5% 7.7% 6.9% 7.0% 6.9% 6.8% 7.0% Armenia

L . . . . 7.7% 1.1% 6.8% 6.1% 6.3% 6.1% 5.8% 5.7%

H . . . . 4.8% 8.9% 5.1% 4.1% 4.3% 4.3% 4.1% 5.1%

B 4.1% 8.1% 2.0% -7.6% 3.4% 6.1% 3.7% 3.3% 3.3% 3.2% 3.0% 3.7% Austria

L . . . . 2.1% 2.5% 2.5% 2.3% 2.5% 2.2% 2.0% 2.3%

H . . . . 9.9% 11% 8.7% 7.2% 7.9% 7.8% 7.6% 8.5%

B . 4.3% 13% 0.5% 8.4% 6.6% 7.3% 6.7% 6.8% 6.8% 6.6% 7.0% Azerbaijan

L . . . . 7.2% 3.8% 6.3% 5.9% 6.4% 5.9% 5.6% 5.9%

H . . . . 8.1% 8.9% 6.8% 6.0% 6.0% 5.9% 5.8% 6.8%

B 13% 18% 16% -8.6% 6.7% 5.4% 5.3% 5.0% 4.8% 4.7% 4.5% 5.2% Belarus

L . . . . 5.3% 1.6% 4.0% 4.0% 3.8% 3.6% 3.4% 3.7%

H . . . . 2.3% 7.3% 4.0% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.4% 3.9%

B 4.9% 4.2% 0.7% -7.9% 1.0% 4.7% 3.0% 2.5% 2.6% 2.5% 2.5% 2.7% Belgium/Luxembourg

L . . . . -0.3% 1.2% 2.0% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.4%

H . . . . 12% 14% 6.3% 5.2% 5.2% 5.2% 5.1% 7.5%

B 5.5% 19% 8.5% 3.1% 10% 11% 4.7% 4.3% 4.1% 4.0% 3.8% 5.9% Bosnia-Herzegovina

L . . . . 8.8% 6.9% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 2.8% 4.5%

H . . . . 7.6% 9.5% 7.1% 5.2% 5.5% 5.5% 5.0% 6.5%

B 1.6% 11% 7.7% -0.2% 6.1% 6.3% 5.5% 5.0% 4.4% 4.3% 3.9% 5.1% Bulgaria

L . . . . 4.5% 2.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.2% 3.4% 2.8% 3.6%

H . . . . 6.1% 6.9% 3.3% 3.1% 3.6% 3.7% 3.8% 4.3%

B 4.0% 1.7% -0.2% ( 13%) 4.9% 4.5% 1.7% 1.9% 2.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.9% Canary Islands

L . . . . 3.6% 0.7% 0.4% 0.8% 1.3% 1.2% 1.1% 1.3%

H . . . . 9.3% 9.8% 6.5% 5.0% 4.9% 4.9% 4.7% 6.4%

B 2.4% 17% 6.0% 0.1% 7.6% 6.3% 4.8% 4.2% 3.9% 3.8% 3.5% 4.9% Croatia

L . . . . 6.1% 2.7% 3.3% 3.2% 3.3% 2.9% 2.5% 3.4%

H . . . . 8.7% 9.3% 6.3% 5.1% 5.4% 5.4% 5.4% 6.5%

B 4.1% 12% 12% -1.7% 7.4% 6.2% 4.8% 4.3% 4.0% 4.0% 4.0% 5.0% Cyprus

L . . . . 6.0% 2.6% 3.6% 3.3% 3.4% 2.9% 2.7% 3.5%

H . . . . 4.5% 7.5% 5.8% 4.6% 5.1% 5.1% 5.0% 5.4%

B 2.4% 5.6% 5.5% -5.0% 3.1% 4.6% 4.3% 3.6% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% Czech Republic

L . . . . 1.8% 1.1% 3.1% 2.6% 2.8% 2.6% 2.5% 2.3%

H . . . . 5.9% 8.4% 3.3% 2.6% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 4.1%

B 2.9% 4.8% -0.3% -8.5% 4.7% 6.1% 2.5% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 3.1% Denmark

L . . . . 3.4% 2.8% 1.8% 1.3% 1.4% 1.3% 1.4% 1.9%

H . . . . 5.3% 10% 5.0% 5.2% 5.3% 5.2% 5.2% 5.9%

B -5.7% 12% 13% ( 12%) 3.9% 7.0% 3.8% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 4.5% Estonia

L . . . . 2.3% 3.2% 2.8% 3.4% 3.3% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0%



2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

AAGR 2016/ 2009

H . . . . 5.8% 14% 4.7% 4.4% 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% 6.1%

B 6.8% 3.9% 2.0% -0.1% 3.8% 9.8% 3.3% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.5% 4.5% FYROM

L . . . . 2.2% 5.6% 2.2% 2.8% 3.0% 2.9% 2.7% 3.1%

H . . . . 1.9% 7.9% 3.6% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% 3.7%

B 1.4% -0.3% 6.3% -7.7% 0.9% 5.6% 2.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.7% Finland

L . . . . -0.4% 2.4% 2.0% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.5%

H . . . . 1.8% 7.8% 3.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.6%

B 3.9% 6.0% -0.2% -7.3% 0.6% 5.1% 2.6% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.5% France

L . . . . -0.6% 1.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.3%

H . . . . 16% 11% 7.8% 5.9% 6.4% 6.4% 6.0% 8.5%

B -1.2% 9.7% -0.0% -3.6% 14% 6.5% 6.6% 5.8% 5.6% 5.5% 5.2% 7.0% Georgia

L . . . . 13% 2.9% 5.7% 5.2% 5.5% 4.9% 4.3% 5.8%

H . . . . 3.3% 8.3% 4.0% 3.4% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 4.3%

B 4.2% 4.6% 1.4% -7.0% 2.0% 5.5% 2.8% 2.6% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 3.0% Germany

L . . . . 0.6% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7%

H . . . . 4.9% 6.5% 4.5% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.7%

B 3.2% 9.9% 3.4% -0.8% 3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 3.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% Greece

L . . . . 2.2% 0.0% 1.7% 2.4% 2.6% 2.4% 2.3% 1.9%

H . . . . 4.8% 7.9% 6.0% 5.1% 5.4% 5.4% 5.1% 5.7%

B 4.4% 1.8% 1.1% -2.3% 3.2% 4.6% 4.6% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 4.1% Hungary

L . . . . 1.7% 0.7% 3.4% 3.3% 3.4% 3.1% 2.8% 2.6%

H . . . . 2.3% 9.1% 5.5% 4.6% 4.3% 4.2% 4.4% 4.9%

B 4.1% 5.7% 4.2% -7.8% 0.9% 6.0% 4.3% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 3.3% 3.5% Iceland

L . . . . -0.2% 3.1% 3.4% 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3%

H . . . . -1.6% 9.0% 5.1% 4.7% 5.1% 5.3% 5.7% 4.7%

B 5.4% 5.9% 0.5% ( 12%) -2.7% 6.3% 3.6% 3.1% 3.4% 3.4% 3.5% 2.9% Ireland

L . . . . -3.7% 3.2% 2.4% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0% 1.4%

H . . . . 4.8% 7.8% 4.6% 3.8% 4.0% 4.2% 4.0% 4.7%

B 4.0% 8.4% -2.4% -5.1% 3.9% 5.4% 3.2% 2.8% 2.9% 3.0% 3.0% 3.5% Italy

L . . . . 2.7% 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.1% 1.9% 2.1%

H . . . . 7.0% 12% 4.6% 5.4% 5.7% 5.6% 5.3% 6.5%

B 13% 15% 11% -8.4% 5.5% 8.6% 3.3% 4.5% 4.6% 4.4% 4.2% 5.0% Latvia

L . . . . 3.9% 4.7% 2.4% 3.7% 3.6% 3.4% 3.1% 3.5%

H . . . . 7.4% 6.9% 3.6% 3.2% 3.5% 2.7% 2.2% 4.2%

B 5.7% 6.3% 2.7% -7.2% 6.2% 4.5% 2.3% 2.2% 1.8% 1.6% 1.8% 2.9% Lisbon FIR

L . . . . 4.9% 1.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.9% 1.5% 0.9% 1.5%

H . . . . 9.8% 11% 4.8% 5.2% 5.3% 5.2% 5.0% 6.6%

B 6.0% 13% 12% ( 12%) 8.2% 8.0% 3.5% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 3.8% 5.1% Lithuania

L . . . . 6.6% 4.2% 2.6% 3.4% 3.3% 3.1% 2.8% 3.7%

H . . . . 11% 11% 6.6% 5.9% 6.2% 6.3% 6.4% 7.6%

B 0.2% 8.1% 3.4% 0.7% 9.5% 8.0% 4.9% 4.8% 4.8% 4.7% 4.8% 5.9% Malta

L . . . . 8.1% 4.8% 3.9% 3.6% 3.8% 3.5% 3.5% 4.4%

H . . . . 17% 12% 6.9% 6.6% 6.9% 6.9% 6.8% 9.0%

B 7.8% 25% 18% 6.7% 15% 7.6% 5.5% 5.7% 5.7% 5.6% 5.5% 7.2% Moldova

L . . . . 14% 3.8% 4.3% 4.8% 4.8% 4.5% 4.3% 5.7%

H . . . . 2.7% 8.1% 3.4% 2.9% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.8%

B 6.0% 4.9% -1.6% -8.6% 1.6% 5.8% 2.6% 2.2% 2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.7% Netherlands

L . . . . 0.5% 2.7% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%



2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

AAGR 2016/ 2009

H . . . . 2.8% 6.5% 3.6% 2.9% 3.1% 3.2% 3.4% 3.6%

B 6.1% 4.5% 2.6% -4.4% 2.0% 4.5% 2.5% 1.9% 2.1% 2.1% 2.3% 2.5% Norway

L . . . . 1.1% 2.1% 1.5% 1.0% 1.2% 1.2% 1.3% 1.3%

H . . . . 8.3% 11% 6.2% 4.8% 5.7% 5.6% 5.7% 6.7%

B 16% 13% 10% -7.6% 7.0% 7.9% 4.6% 3.9% 4.4% 4.3% 4.3% 5.2% Poland

L . . . . 5.7% 4.7% 3.3% 3.0% 3.3% 3.1% 3.0% 3.7%

H . . . . 10% 10% 7.3% 6.4% 6.8% 6.9% 6.7% 7.8%

B 1.3% 4.0% 2.7% -2.3% 8.5% 7.2% 5.7% 5.3% 5.3% 5.3% 5.1% 6.1% Romania

L . . . . 7.1% 3.6% 4.1% 4.2% 4.3% 4.0% 3.7% 4.4%

H . . . . 5.8% 5.3% 4.6% 4.0% 4.2% 4.1% 4.2% 4.6%

B 0.9% 1.7% 6.5% -2.6% 4.4% 2.4% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2% Santa Maria FIR

L . . . . 3.0% -1.2% 2.2% 2.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 1.8%

H . . . . 8.9% 12% 5.6% 4.5% 4.7% 4.7% 4.5% 6.4%

B 8.7% 16% 8.6% 3.3% 7.3% 8.5% 4.2% 4.0% 3.7% 3.6% 3.4% 4.9% Serbia&Montenegro

L . . . . 5.8% 4.7% 3.0% 3.1% 3.2% 2.8% 2.4% 3.6%

H . . . . 11% 13% 6.0% 5.0% 5.4% 5.4% 5.3% 7.2%

B 3.8% -1.6% 6.4% -2.4% 9.0% 9.4% 4.6% 4.1% 4.2% 4.1% 4.1% 5.6% Slovakia

L . . . . 7.5% 5.6% 3.5% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 2.8% 4.1%

H . . . . 7.1% 9.7% 5.8% 4.4% 4.4% 4.4% 4.2% 5.7%

B 3.7% 15% 6.8% -4.2% 5.5% 6.3% 4.2% 3.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.1% 4.2% Slovenia

L . . . . 4.0% 2.5% 2.9% 2.7% 2.9% 2.5% 2.1% 2.8%

H . . . . 3.7% 7.4% 3.2% 2.6% 3.3% 3.4% 3.3% 3.8%

B 5.1% 8.4% -1.8% -9.5% 2.4% 4.6% 1.7% 2.0% 2.2% 2.0% 2.2% 2.4% Spain

L . . . . 1.1% 0.8% 0.4% 0.8% 1.1% 1.3% 1.4% 1.0%

H . . . . 2.6% 7.7% 4.5% 2.9% 3.2% 3.9% 3.4% 4.0%

B 3.8% 2.8% 3.9% ( 11%) 1.6% 5.1% 3.7% 2.2% 2.4% 3.1% 2.6% 2.9% Sweden

L . . . . 0.5% 2.4% 3.0% 1.6% 1.7% 2.2% 1.8% 1.9%

H . . . . 3.4% 8.5% 3.7% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 4.0%

B 2.4% 5.9% 0.3% -7.1% 2.2% 5.8% 2.6% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.9% Switzerland

L . . . . 0.8% 2.2% 1.6% 1.5% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.6%

H . . . . 15% 12% 7.7% 5.1% 5.4% 5.4% 4.0% 7.6%

B 8.0% 9.2% 8.6% 4.2% 13% 9.0% 6.4% 5.6% 4.6% 4.5% 4.0% 6.8% Turkey

L . . . . 12% 5.9% 5.2% 5.0% 5.1% 4.0% 3.3% 5.8%

H . . . . 14% 12% 7.5% 5.3% 5.9% 5.7% 5.6% 7.9%

B 1.3% 8.2% 8.7% -6.9% 12% 8.6% 6.2% 4.7% 5.0% 4.7% 4.6% 6.5% Ukraine

L . . . . 11% 5.3% 5.1% 4.0% 4.4% 3.9% 3.6% 5.3%

H . . . . -1.9% 7.1% 3.6% 3.0% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0%

B 3.4% 3.5% -1.4% -9.4% -2.9% 4.8% 2.8% 2.2% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.0% UK

L . . . . -3.9% 2.1% 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.0%

H . . . . 2.6% 7.3% 4.3% 3.4% 3.7% 3.8% 3.6% 4.1%

B 3.9% 5.1% 0.4% -6.6% 1.5% 4.7% 3.1% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.9% ESRA02

L . . . . 0.3% 1.6% 2.0% 1.8% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7%

H . . . . 2.1% 7.2% 4.2% 3.3% 3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 4.0%

B 3.5% 5.6% 0.3% -7.2% 1.0% 4.6% 2.9% 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.7% EU27

L . . . . -0.2% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.7% 1.5%

H . . . . 2.7% 7.3% 4.4% 3.4% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 4.1%

B 3.7% 5.0% 0.4% -6.6% 1.6% 4.7% 3.1% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.7% 2.9% ESRA08

L . . . . 0.5% 1.7% 2.0% 1.8% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7%



2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

AAGR 2016/ 2009

H . . . . 2.1% 7.2% 4.2% 3.3% 3.7% 3.8% 3.7% 4.0%

B 3.6% 4.9% 0.4% -6.9% 1.0% 4.6% 2.9% 2.6% 2.7% 2.7% 2.6% 2.7% SES

L . . . . -0.2% 1.5% 1.8% 1.7% 1.9% 1.9% 1.8% 1.5%

H . . . . 7.1% 10% 6.2% 4.9% 5.7% 5.6% 5.6% 6.5%

B . . . -8.6% 5.7% 7.2% 4.6% 4.0% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.9% Baltic

L . . . . 4.3% 3.9% 3.4% 3.1% 3.4% 3.1% 3.0% 3.5%

H . . . . 5.0% 7.5% 4.7% 4.0% 4.3% 4.4% 4.3% 4.9%

B . . . -3.7% 3.9% 4.8% 3.3% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.2% 3.5% Blue Med

L . . . . 2.7% 1.6% 2.0% 2.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% 2.2%

H . . . . 9.9% 11% 7.1% 5.7% 6.1% 6.1% 5.8% 7.4%

B . . . -0.4% 8.5% 7.8% 5.5% 5.1% 4.7% 4.7% 4.4% 5.8% Danube

L . . . . 7.0% 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% 4.2% 3.6% 3.1% 4.3%

H . . . . 5.0% 9.3% 5.7% 4.6% 4.8% 4.8% 4.7% 5.5%

B . . . -5.1% 3.6% 6.2% 4.2% 3.7% 3.7% 3.6% 3.5% 4.1% FAB CE

L . . . . 2.2% 2.7% 2.9% 2.7% 2.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.6%

H . . . . 2.4% 7.7% 3.9% 3.1% 3.3% 3.3% 3.3% 3.9%

B . . . -7.0% 1.2% 5.1% 2.7% 2.4% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.7% FAB EC

L . . . . -0.0% 1.7% 1.8% 1.6% 1.8% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5%

H . . . . 3.4% 7.5% 3.9% 3.0% 3.2% 3.5% 3.4% 4.0%

B . . . -8.4% 2.4% 5.1% 3.0% 2.2% 2.4% 2.6% 2.5% 2.9% NEFAB

L . . . . 1.3% 2.3% 2.1% 1.5% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.7%

H . . . . 3.7% 7.2% 3.3% 2.6% 3.3% 3.4% 3.1% 3.8%

B . . . -9.3% 2.5% 4.4% 1.7% 2.0% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.4% SW Portugal - Spai

L . . . . 1.2% 0.6% 0.4% 0.8% 1.1% 1.3% 1.3% 1.0%

H . . . . -2.0% 7.1% 3.8% 3.1% 3.2% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1%

B . . . -9.5% -2.9% 4.7% 2.9% 2.2% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.0% UK-Ireland

L . . . . -3.9% 2.0% 2.1% 1.7% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 0.9%

Units: Growth compared to the previous year.




ANNEX F. REFERENCES

Electronic versions of the present report and the reports referenced hereafter are available on www.eurocontrol.int/statfor.

1 EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast of Service Units, STATFOR Doc406, September 2010.

2 EUROCONTROL Medium-Term Forecast: IFR Flight Movements 2010-2016, STATFOR Doc378, February 2010.

3 Ash cloud of April and May 2010: Impact on Air Traffic, STATFOR Doc394, June 2010.

4 http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/sid

5 http://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor

6 EUROCONTROL Short-Term Forecast: IFR Movements 2010-2011, STATFOR Doc398, May 2010.

7 EUROCONTROL Glossary for Flight Statistics & Forecasts, STATFOR Doc87, January 2005.

8 STATFOR Geographical Hierarchy, STATFOR Doc172, February 2009.

9 Estimated effects of ETS on passenger demand for flights in 2012-2016, STATFOR Doc365, March 2010.

EUROCONTROL

For further information, please contact: STATFOR, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast [email protected]://www.eurocontrol.int/statfor

The Statistics and Forecasts Service (STATFOR) is ISO 9001:2008 certified

© 2010 - European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL)

This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may

be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the

source and it is not used for commercial purposes (i.e. for financial gain). The infor-

mation in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from

EUROCONTROL.

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