EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST … Manager Flight Movements and Service Units 2015-2021 EUROCONTROL...

Edition Number : 15/09/04-48

Edition Validity Date : 01/10/2015

EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST SEPTEMBER 2015

Flight Movements and Service Units 2015-2021

INTENTIONALLY BLANK PAGE

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

This report presents the September 2015 update of the EUROCONTROL seven-year flight and service units forecast. This update uses the most-recent traffic statistics and economic forecasts, and more up-to-date information in terms of traffic trends and recent air-industry related events.

IFR Movements

As expected in the February forecast, European traffic in 2015 remained on average 1.2% above the 2014 traffic levels (January-August period). More sustained growth rates emerged during summer months, nearing the 2% levels. This was notably driven by the low-cost segment.

Since the previous forecast published in February 2015, the oil price, load factors of European carriers and the traffic development per market segment remained in line with the situation observed end of 2014. The economic outlook remained as well mainly unchanged at European level. However at State level, we observed some significant changes in both Northern and Southern Europe. In parallel, several events, either as a continuation from last year1 or as result of more recent developments (e.g. unit rates increase in Germany), led airlines to change their routes, affecting overflight growth in the different States involved. Moreover, the recent events in Tunisia have led to some changes in tourism destinations for the summer period.

At European level, the flight forecast remains mostly unchanged in 2015 with a growth of 1.6% (±0.4 pp). In 2016, the forecast foresees a growth of 2.3% (±1.9 pp) influenced by the leap year effect. In the 2017-2020 horizon, the annual growth rate will reach 2.4% notably thanks to additional capacity brought by the third airport in Turkey from end 2017, lifting the constraints on the European network. However, the capacity constraints will weigh again in 2021 with a growth rate levelling off at around 2%. For the whole 2014-2021 period, flight growth averages 2.2% (±1.4 pp) per year in the base scenario. The average annual growth rate for flights departing Europe to outside European regions is likely to be higher than the rate within Europe itself over the next seven years due to the increasing globalisation. Africa, Middle-East and Asia/Pacific (especially China) regions are likely to attract European traffic due to the higher expected GDP growth.

The base scenario forecast is for 11.2 million IFR movements in Europe in 2021, 19% more than in 2014. By 2021, the high-growth scenario has 0.9 million more and the low-growth scenario 1 million fewer flights than the base scenario. The 2008 peak of traffic of 10.1 million flights is forecasted to be reached again by 2017; a 9-year hiatus as already stated in the February 2015

1 As in the last two published forecasts, we assume no full return to “normal” routing will happen by

the end of the 7-year horizon (2021) for both the Ukraine and Libyan crisis. Assumptions in this document are purely for forecasting purposes and do not represent any policy of the Agency.

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forecast publication. Any user of the forecast is strongly advised to use the forecast range (low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. These are discussed in Section 6.

Figure 1. Summary of flight forecast for Europe (ESRA082).

ESRA08 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 AAGR

2021/2014

RP1 2014/2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

IFR Flight Movements (Thousands)

H . . . . 9,786 10,181 10,592 10,965 11,316 11,759 12,112 3.4% . 3.3%

B 9,784 9,548 9,447 9,604 9,754 9,978 10,208 10,447 10,673 10,957 11,158 2.2% -0.6% 2.1%

L . . . . 9,714 9,724 9,757 9,844 9,937 10,062 10,119 0.7% . 0.7%

Annual Growth (compared to previous year

unless otherwise mentioned)

H . . . . 1.9% 4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.2% 3.9% 3.0% 3.4% . 3.3%

B 3.1% -2.4% -1.1% 1.7% 1.6% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.7% 1.8% 2.2% -0.6% 2.1%

L . . . . 1.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.7% . 0.7%

Figure 2. Average annual flight growth 2014-20213.

Total En-route Service Units

Thanks to a combination of strong flight growth during the summer as well as continuing route-changes over Central Europe largely as a result of the airspace closures since spring 2014, a stronger growth in service units is expected by the end of the year compared to February 2015 forecast. In 2015, 137.7 million service units are expected to be produced for EUROCONTROL

2 ESRA08 is a large, fixed region covering most of Europe. See Annex 1 for a definition.

3 Forecast shown by FIR/UIR, which in most cases is close to State boundaries.

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Member States (CRCO14). This is a 0.8 percentage point revision upwards compared to the February 2015 forecast.

For 2016 and the following years, the higher growth rates are expected to fade out, resulting over 7 years in little change from the February 2015 forecast. In EUROCONTROL Member States (CRCO14), by 2021, 165.1 million TSU are expected and the high-growth scenario has 15.5 million more and low-growth scenario has 15.8 million fewer TSU than the base scenario (+/-12% in terms of growth respectively).

As for the states participating in the Performance Scheme during the second reference period (RP2), their average annual growth rate of 2.8% is in line with the February 2015 publication with a marginal decrease of 0.2 percentage point. In RP2 Region, by 2021 the TSU are expected to reach 134.9 million representing a baseline scenario with a total growth of 21% compared to 2014.

Figure 3. Summary of total en-route service units forecast for EUROCONTROL Member States (CRCO14

4) and Performance Scheme area (RP2Region

4).

Total en-route service units (Thousands)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

2021/ 2014 Total

Growth

RP1 2014/ 2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

CRCO14

H . . . . 138,316 145,946 153,151 159,892 166,395 174,226 180,666 37% . 4.7%

B 123,939 122,298 124,910 132,130 137,723 142,947 147,257 151,817 156,195 161,240 165,131 25% 2.2% 3.4%

L . . . . 137,100 139,601 140,922 143,088 145,267 147,762 149,298 13% . 1.9%

RP2Region*

H . . . . 115,342 121,172 126,583 131,757 136,593 142,525 147,143 32% . 4.1%

B 106,761 105,251 106,930 111,670 114,870 118,746 121,875 125,234 128,430 132,182 134,892 21% 1.5% 2.8%

L . . . . 114,375 116,081 116,803 118,263 119,666 121,359 122,280 10% . 1.4%

Total en-route service units

(Growth) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

AAGR 2021/2014

RP1 2014/ 2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

CRCO14

H . . . . 4.7% 5.5% 4.9% 4.4% 4.1% 4.7% 3.7% 4.6% . 4.7%

B 5.0% -1.3% 2.1% 5.8% 4.2% 3.8% 3.0% 3.1% 2.9% 3.2% 2.4% 3.2% 2.2% 3.4%

L . . . . 3.8% 1.8% 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 1.0% 1.8% . 1.9%

RP2Region*

H . . . . 3.3% 5.1% 4.5% 4.1% 3.7% 4.3% 3.2% 4.0% . 4.1%

B 4.6% -1.4% 1.6% 4.4% 2.9% 3.4% 2.6% 2.8% 2.6% 2.9% 2.1% 2.7% 1.5% 2.8%

L . . . . 2.4% 1.5% 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 0.8% 1.3% . 1.4%

* RP2 series includes service units for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic (OAT) for Germany.

4 For definitions of CRCO14 and RP2Region, see Annex 1 . CRCO14 designates the sum over all the

states participating in the Multilateral Route Charges System in 2014 of all TSU either measured or forecasted for the corresponding year.RP2Region refers to the 28 EU member states plus Norway and Switzerland.

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Figure 4. Average annual en-route service unit growth 2014-2021 per State.

Terminal Navigation Service Units

In the countries participating in the Performance Scheme during the second reference period (RP2), the forecast of Terminal Navigation Service Units for 2015 has been revised upwards by 0.3 percentage point and is expected to reach 7.5 million for 2015. Following similar trends as the en-route service units, growth will then weaken and the average annual growth between 2014 and 2021 will stand at 2.7% on average (a 0.2 percentage point downwards revision compared to the previous forecast) to reach 8.7 million by 2021.

Figure 5. Summary of total Terminal Navigation Service Units forecast for the second Performance Scheme States (RP2Region).

RP2 Region

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

AAGR 2021/ 2014

AAGR RP1

2014/ 2011

AAGR RP2

2019/ 2014

TNSU Total

(thousands)

H . . . . 7,486.9 7,805.0 8,113.4 8,444.6 8,756.9 9,142.3 9,469.2 3.9% . 3.9%

B 7,376.4 7,234.3 7,223.5 7,266.7 7,463.8 7,667.0 7,853.9 8,071.0 8,274.2 8,536.7 8,734.3 2.7% -0.5% 2.7%

L . . . . 7,436.4 7,492.6 7,543.4 7,642.9 7,732.5 7,860.8 7,940.9 1.3% . 1.3%

TNSU Annual Growth

(%)

H . . . . 3.0% 4.2% 4.0% 4.1% 3.7% 4.4% 3.6% 3.9% . 3.9%

B 8.6% -1.9% -0.1% 0.6% 2.7% 2.7% 2.4% 2.8% 2.5% 3.2% 2.3% 2.7% -0.5% 2.7%

L . . . . 2.3% 0.8% 0.7% 1.3% 1.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.3% . 1.3%

Any user of the forecast is strongly advised to use the forecast range (low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. This forecast includes downside

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risks (e.g., reduced capacity for this Winter and next Summer) and upside risks (e.g., current high load factors might not be able to absorb the passenger demand when traffic begins to grow again). These are discussed in Section 6.

The EUROCONTROL 7-year forecast will be next updated in February 2016, through the improved process which opens the forecast preparation phase to a wide audience (inside and outside EUROCONTROL) and uses a richer set of inputs.

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DOCUMENT CHARACTERISTICS

Document Title Document Subtitle

(optional) Edition Number

Edition Validity Date



15/09/04-48 01/10/2015

Abstract

This report presents the September 2015 update of the EUROCONTROL seven-year flight and service units forecast.

Author(s)

STATFOR Team

Contact Person(s) Tel/email Unit

STATFOR Team [email protected] NMD/PFR/FNI/STATFOR

Publications [email protected] DG/COM

STATUS AND ACCESSIBILITY

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Proposed Issue Internet (www.eurocontrol.int)

Released Issue

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TLP STATUS

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©2015 The European Organisation for the Safety of Air Navigation (EUROCONTROL). This document is published by EUROCONTROL for information purposes. It may be copied in whole or in part, provided that EUROCONTROL is mentioned as the source and the extent justified by the non-commercial use (not for sale). The information in this document may not be modified without prior written permission from EUROCONTROL.

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DOCUMENT APPROVAL

EDITION HISTORY

Edition No. Edition

Validity Date Author Reason

15/09/04-48 01/10/2015 STATFOR Team Final Version

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TABLE OF CONTENTS

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................... I

DOCUMENT CHARACTERISTICS ................................................................................. VI

DOCUMENT APPROVAL ............................................................................................... VII

EDITION HISTORY ......................................................................................................... VII

TABLE OF CONTENTS ................................................................................................. VIII

1 INTRODUCTION ............................................................................................ 11

1.1 CONTEXT ................................................................................................................... 11

1.2 FORECAST METHOD .................................................................................................... 11

2 FLIGHT AND SERVICE UNITS TRENDS IN 2015 ........................................ 14

2.1 IFR MOVEMENTS ........................................................................................................ 14

2.2 EN-ROUTE SERVICE UNITS .......................................................................................... 20

3 FORECAST INPUTS AND ASSUMPTIONS .................................................. 22

3.1 ECONOMIC GROWTH ................................................................................................... 22

3.2 EVENTS AND TRENDS .................................................................................................. 26

4 GROWTH IN IFR FLIGHTS TO 2021 ............................................................. 28

4.1 SHORT-TERM OUTLOOK (2015-2016) ........................................................................... 28

4.2 MEDIUM-TERM OUTLOOK (UP TO 2021)......................................................................... 31

4.3 COMPARISON WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST ..................................................................... 34

5 SERVICE UNIT GROWTH TO 2021 .............................................................. 36

5.1 EN-ROUTE SERVICE UNITS (TSU) ................................................................................ 36

5.2 TERMINAL NAVIGATION SERVICE UNITS (TNSU) ........................................................... 39

6 RISKS TO THE FORECAST GROWTH ........................................................ 41

7 GLOSSARY ................................................................................................... 43

ANNEX 1 TRAFFIC REGION DEFINITIONS ................................................................. 45

ANNEX 2 SUMMARY OF FORECAST FOR ESRA08 ................................................... 51

ANNEX 3 SEVEN-YEAR FLIGHT FORECAST PER STATE (IFR MOVEMENTS) ....... 54

ANNEX 4 SEVEN-YEAR FLIGHT FORECAST PER STATE (GROWTH) ..................... 59

ANNEX 5 TWO-YEAR EN-ROUTE SERVICE UNIT FORECAST PER STATE ............. 64

ANNEX 6 SEVEN-YEAR EN-ROUTE SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER STATE ...... 66

ANNEX 7 SEVEN-YEAR EN-ROUTE SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER STATE (GROWTH) .............................................................................................................. 71

ANNEX 8 TERMINAL NAVIGATION SERVICE UNITS FORECAST PER STATE ....... 76

ANNEX 9 TERMINAL NAVIGATION SERVICE UNITS GROWTH FORECAST PER STATE .............................................................................................................. 80

ANNEX 10 REFERENCES ..................................................................................... 83

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LIST OF FIGURES IN MAIN DOCUMENT

Figure 1. Summary of flight forecast for Europe (ESRA08). ............................................. ii

Figure 2. Average annual flight growth 2014-2021. ............................................................ ii

Figure 3. Summary of total en-route service units forecast for EUROCONTROL Member States (CRCO14) and Performance Scheme area (RP2Region4). ............... iii

Figure 4. Average annual en-route service unit growth 2014-2021 per State. ................ iv

Figure 5. Summary of total Terminal Navigation Service Units forecast for the second Performance Scheme States (RP2Region).................................................... iv

Figure 6. The components of the STATFOR seven-year forecast................................... 13

Figure 7. 2015 number of flights is 1.2% above 2014, in line with the February 2015 forecast. .............................................................................................................. 14

Figure 8. Since the beginning of the year 2015, most of the States have been adding traffic to the Network (vs same months last year). ....................................... 15

Figure 9. How the flows changed within Europe in the Summer of 2015 (May-Aug). ............................................................................................................................. 16

Figure 10: In 2015, the United States overtook Russia as the non-European destination adding the most flights. .......................................................................... 18

Figure 11. 2015 European load factors remained comparable to 2014 record highs, even improving in July/August (Source: AEA). ............................................. 18

Figure 12. Low-Cost is the only segment which has grown consistently at a modest rate of 6%. ...................................................................................................... 19

Figure 13. In 2015, the trend in ticket price changes (air travel) in Europe increased to some 1.5% more than the year before, on a 12-month trailing average. ....................................................................................................................... 19

Figure 14. In 2015, oil prices hovered around €50 per barrel. ......................................... 20

Figure 15. Evolution of total service units recorded in CRCO11 area from January 2011 to July 2015. ......................................................................................... 20

Figure 16. EU GDP forecast remained largely unchanged across the horizon since the OE January 2015 revision. ......................................................................... 23

Figure 17. GDP Growth by Traffic Zone. ........................................................................... 23

Figure 18. GDP Growth by Origin-Destination Zone. ....................................................... 24

Figure 19. GDP Growth by Traffic Region. ....................................................................... 25

Figure 20. GDP growth change per State in 2015 between this forecast (MTF15b) and the previous one (MTF15). .................................................................. 25

Figure 21. GDP growth cumulative change per State by 2021 between this forecast (MTF15b) and the previous one (MTF15). ................................................... 26

Figure 22. Summary of the forecast for Europe. .............................................................. 28

Figure 23. Flight forecast details for 2015. ....................................................................... 29

Figure 24. Flight forecast details for 2016. ....................................................................... 29

Figure 25. Average Annual Growth of Flights per State, 2021 v 2014. ........................... 32

Figure 26. Number of additional movements per day for each State (2021 v 2014). ............................................................................................................................ 32

Figure 27. Average Annual Growth in Flights per FAB, 2021 v 2014. ............................. 33

Figure 28. Average annual growth on main flows from Europe, 2021 versus

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2014 (base scenario). .................................................................................................. 34

Figure 29. For total Europe, current forecast is aligned with previous forecast (dated February 2015). ................................................................................................ 34

Figure 30. Comparison 2015-2021 of the forecast between the current TSU forecast and February 2015 for CRCO14 Area. ......................................................... 37

Figure 31. Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe. .................................. 38

Figure 32. Average annual growth of service units between 2014 and 2021. ................ 39

Figure 33. Total Terminal Navigation Service Units generated in the RP2Region area as defined. ........................................................................................................... 40

Figure 34. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area. ........................................... 45

Figure 35. Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August 2012. .................................. 46

Figure 36. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics. ........................................ 46

Figure 37. FABs as stipulated by the European Commission (STATFOR update: January 2014). Source: EUROCONTROL PRU .......................................................... 48

Figure 38. List of aerodromes forming the TCZ in RP2. .................................................. 50

Figure 39. Growth in Europe (ESRA08) ............................................................................ 51

Figure 40. Flights and growth on main flow categories in Europe (ESRA08) ................ 52

Figure 41. Busiest bi-directional region-to-region flows for ESRA08 ............................. 53

Figure 42. Forecast of the number of IFR Movements (thousands) per State. .............. 54

Figure 43. Forecast of the IFR Movements growth per State. ......................................... 59

Figure 44. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units 2015-2016. ............ 64

Figure 45. Forecast Summary: Annual chargeable en-route service units 2015-2016. ............................................................................................................................. 65

Figure 46. Forecast of the total number of en-route service units (thousands) per State....................................................................................................................... 66

Figure 47. Forecast of the total en-route service units growth per State. ...................... 71

Figure 48. Forecast of the total number of Terminal service units (thousands) per Terminal Charging Zone. ...................................................................................... 76

Figure 49. Forecast of the total number of Terminal service units (growth) per Terminal Charging Zone. ............................................................................................ 80

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1 Introduction

1.1 Context

This document presents an update of the 7-year forecast published by EUROCONTROL in February this year (Ref. 1). This forecast update is produced every year, in particular to allow the capacity-planning process to use the most up-to-date information. To achieve this, the EUROCONTROL Statistics and Forecast Service (STATFOR) refreshes mid-year the main inputs to the forecast.

The forecast describes the annual number of IFR flight movements, annual number of total en-route service units and annual number of terminal navigation service units up to 2021.

For this update, three sets of the inputs have been revised: the assumptions on economic growth have been updated using economic forecasts available in mid-August; the traffic (IFR movements and service units) baseline has been re-aligned to take into account annual traffic to the end of July; adjustments and assumptions have been refreshed to better reflect the effect of the different traffic disruptions (e.g., Tunisia tourism crisis). For all other inputs and assumptions, see the description in Section 3 of Ref. 1.

The forecast method is similar to the one used in the EUROCONTROL 7-year forecast published in February 2015. An overview of the forecast method is given in the Section 1.2, and more details on the forecast method are given in Ref. 2.

This document contains a presentation of the latest traffic trends (Section 2), a presentation of the forecast inputs and assumptions (Section 3). The flights (Section 4) and Service Units (Section 5) forecasts to 2021 are then discussed. Section 6 indicates the main risks surrounding the forecast. A presentation of the geographical definitions can be found in Annex 1 . Forecast details for Europe as a whole are presented in Annex 2 . Annual total forecasts per States for IFR flights, en-route service units and terminal navigation service units can be found in Annex 3 to Annex 9 . The IFR flights forecasts per State (with details per flows) are provided via the STATFOR Interactive Dashboard (Ref. 3).

This 7-year IFR movements and service units forecast replaces the publication dated February 2015 (Ref. 1). The next 7-year outlook, for 2016-2022, will be published in February 2016, following an extended review cycle, introduced since December 2013.

1.2 Forecast Method

For the new forecast process, we have produced a completely revised set of documentation on the forecast methods (Ref. 2). This documentation describes the methods at a number of levels of detail, from a two-page summary, to a

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function-by-function reference. For convenience of readers, the summary is reproduced in this section.

EUROCONTROL/STATFOR provides impartial air traffic forecasts, market analyses and statistics to the ATM community in the widest sense, to improve understanding of current and future trends, to enable better-informed decision making and thus to improve network performance. The STATFOR forecast has been serving European ATM since the 1970s. It is the only air traffic forecast covering Europe.

STATFOR publishes a forecast of IFR flights and both en-route and terminal service units for the next seven years in Europe. The main forecast update is published in February each year. Our focus is on the traffic forecast for States or larger regions. This influences the modelling choices made in the forecasting process. Other EUROCONTROL units use this high level forecast to drill down to the level of airports, control centres, sectors etc.

The number of flights depends on the interaction of supply and demand: an airline operates a flight between an airport A and an airport B because it has customers who pay to travel or ship goods from A to B. Supply and demand are each influenced by a large number of factors like economy, regulation, demographics, business development, oil prices, high-speed rail. When forecasting, we use data that describe these factors, and data more directly about actual and future supply (past flights, and future schedules). Some data are more relevant to the short-term horizon (e.g., airline schedules) while others are used in the medium-term horizon (e.g., demographics). Probably the three most influential inputs to the forecast are:

Economic growth forecasts obtained from external specialists, and which in recent years have been very variable; growth has slowed, but there is nothing in our data to show that flight growth has decoupled from economic growth;

Regulation, e.g., rules on visas, open skies, airport funding, aviation taxes;

Overflight patterns since, for the majority of States, most of their flights are overflights. A crisis such as that in Ukraine can easily change the number of flights by 10% or more in a number of States due to re-routing, even if the number of flights on the network as a whole is little changed.

Overall, the components of the forecast can be grouped into five elements as in Figure 6. An initial annual forecast for the next seven years based on economic, transport and other trends;

A monthly forecast based on trends, economics and airlines’ plans;

These are merged, and constrained by airport capacities to give the constrained forecast;

The final step of the flight forecast is to calculate how many flights are generated in each State, using both routings through airspace observed in the historical data and recent trends.

The number of service units in a charging zone depends on the number of flights, the weight of aircraft and, in the en route case, the distance flown. The two service unit forecasts therefore take the flight forecast as an input

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and combine this with time series forecasts of weight and distance as needed. This gives total service units, from which future chargeable service units are estimated using the ratio of chargeable/total from the previous calendar year.

Figure 6. The components of the STATFOR seven-year forecast.

We use a highly-automated and structured process to produce traffic forecasts and because of the variety of factors and inputs, different forecasting techniques are used: traditional time series methods to extrapolate historical patterns, econometric analyses to take into account how economic, social and operational conditions have an effect on the development of traffic, scenario-based inputs to describe the future (what Europe will be in 10 years’ time?) and specific data-driven models (e.g., high-speed rail development model). As for any forecast, the method relies on historical data either for taking a snapshot of the most recent trends or longer history to calibrate the models.

The future is always uncertain. We capture this uncertainty in the forecast through three forecast scenarios: low- and high-growth scenarios, with the most-likely ‘base’ forecast in between. All three scenarios should be considered as part of the risk management of any decision based on the forecast.

As requested by Stakeholders, we have re-calibrated:

since the February 2014 forecast, the key relationships with economic growth, including introducing more specific country-pair flow relationships where these make statistical sense. This re-calibration process is described in Ref. 4.

since the February 2015 forecast, the key relationships with high-speed train growth. This re-calibration process is described in Ref 5.

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Annual forecast based on economic, transport and other trends

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2 Flight and service units trends in 2015

Since the beginning of 2015, European traffic remained on average 1.2% above the 2014 traffic levels (compared with January to August in 2014). More sustained growth rates emerged during summer months, nearing the 2% levels. This was notably driven by the low-cost segment, which grew at a 6% rate, as well as by the Traditional scheduled segment (making up the vast majority of the traffic), which displayed a positive growth rate again. 2015 traffic has been in line with the forecast published in February.

Inside Europe, several events, either as a carry-on from last year (e.g. airspace closure in Ukraine and Libya) or as result of more recent developments (e.g. unit rates increase in Germany), led airlines to change their routes, so affecting overflight growth in the different States involved. Outside Europe, United States overtook Russia as the non-European destination adding the highest number of flights.

2.1 IFR Movements

The overall positive traffic growth trend in 2014 helped the European carriers to start 2015 more smoothly. During the first half of 2015, major European carriers managed to reduce their losses and even publish a collective increase in operating profits compared to the same period in 2014 (see Ref. 6 and Ref. 7). Nearly all carriers showed robust passenger growth and they benefited from lower fuel prices, but this was limited by the strength of the US dollar. The overall European traffic growth was limited at the start of the year compared to other months: economic recession in Nordic States, continuation of the crisis in Ukraine and industrial actions. This resulted in limited traffic growth in the first months of the year. As shown in Figure 7, 2015 IFR flight traffic was in line with the forecast published in February 2015.

However, since the summer schedules began, sustained growth was observed: July and August were, with more than 30,700 flights per day on average, the busiest on record. Figure 7. 2015 number of flights is 1.2% above 2014, in line with the February 2015 forecast.

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Total traffic in both the busiest north-western European states (UK +1.8% and Germany +1.4%) and southern European States (Turkey +6.7%, Spain +2.8% and Greece +4.0%) consistently contributed to network growth from May to August 2015 (compared to the same period in 2014).

Network contributors 2.1.1

Figure 8 shows the main contributors to the local traffic growth for January-August 2015 period:

As was the case in 2014, Turkey remained the main contributor to traffic, adding some 150 daily flights, followed by the United Kingdom (+129 flights per day) thanks to arrival and departure flows but also to renewed growth in domestic flows (+3.9%).

Spain (+3%) and Greece (+6%, thanks to sustained traffic demand for the Greek islands) are also amongst the top five contributors, as was the case last year. Compared to 2014, Germany has now moved to the leaders, adding 90 flights per day (excluding overflights).

On the right-hand side of Figure 8, Norway, hit by the oil crisis, is the country that removed most flights from the network since the beginning of the year, due to weakness in its internal traffic and other arrival/departure major flows, amounting to a loss of around 75 daily flights from the European network. Ukraine also removed just less than 70 flights a day, mainly due to the continuation of the crisis which began in 2014.

Figure 8. Since the beginning of the year 2015, most of the States have been adding traffic to the Network (vs same months last year).

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Routing aspects 2.1.2

Several events affected overflight traffic in the summer5 2015, as is shown in the Figure 9.

Figure 9. How the flows changed within Europe in the Summer of 2015 (May-Aug).

Ukraine-crisis: the effects of disruption are diminishing

In the summer of 2015, Ukraine’s overflight flows decreased by 37% (vs the same period last year). We still saw the impact of traffic shifts due to the unavailability of airspace in this state in 2014: central European states (Bulgaria, Hungary, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Turkey) continued to see increases in overflights as the flows between Europe and the Middle-East/Far East Asia were re-routed in a more southerly direction (avoiding Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova). However, at the end of August, four routes in the airspace over the Black Sea were opened once more, but it is too soon to say how these will affect overflight flows.

Southern European States: Cyprus, Greece and Malta balancing African flows

The closure of Libyan airspace (August 14) continued to have a strong impact on Greece as the flows between Europe and Africa, which had previously crossed Maltese airspace, shifted eastwards into Greece. From August onwards, some procedural changes aimed at re-balancing the flows between Malta and Greece, especially on the west-east flows, took effect.

Since July, Cyprus has recorded strong increases in overflight growth, which is mainly explained by some traffic increase in flows from/to Israel (up to 40% in some cases).

5 Summer is referring to May-August 2015 period in this part.

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Impact of increased unit rates in Germany led to routing changes in the region

Over the summer period, overflight traffic growth was quite weak in Germany (<1% on Summer 2014), compared to its neighbours. Indeed, some of these neighbours recorded quite high growth rates (e.g. Netherlands overflights +4%). The impact of the unit rate increase in Germany is associated with some traffic shifts to avoid that State, or more often to minimise their distance flown inside Germany as the latter is difficult to avoid.

Main shifts observed were:

west-east flows (e.g. to/from UK) were shifted in either a more southerly direction through France and Switzerland, through Belgium/Luxembourg or the Netherlands, only partly clipping Germany and Austria;

flows between north and south-west (e.g. Norway-Spain) were shifted westwards through the Netherlands and Belgium/Luxembourg;

flows between the north and south-east (e.g. Denmark-Turkey) reduced the distance flown through Germany and Czech Republic, flying for longer in Sweden and Poland.

In consequence, overflight distance flown in Germany decreased by 1.6% in the summer (vs summer 2014). Distances flown in Austria - which was less affected - showed a small increase of 1% (vs Summer 14). Belgium/Luxembourg saw a 2% increase in distance flown during the summer period. As heavy traffic was experienced in the Brussels sectors of Maastricht Upper Area Centre (MUAC) airspace in the first half of the year, an off-load route strategy was implemented, aiming at shifting traffic from the Brussels to the Deco sectors in order to alleviate traffic pressure and generate less delay. This resulted in a jump of nearly 6% in distances flown over the Netherlands.

South-West axis

There were the usual, but often hard to predict, shifts in traffic flows between North America and north-western Europe, due to winds:

more southerly through Santa Maria in the May-June period;

more northerly through Ireland since August.

Extra-European partners 2.1.3

Since the beginning of the year, the United States has become the number one destination from Europe in terms of number of flights: 430 departures per day on average (see Figure 10), so larger than Russian Federation (380 departures per day on average for the period January to August 2015).

This is a return to the situation prior to 2011 when the United States was the first destination from Europe, ahead of the Russian Federation. A 19% drop in flights from/to Russia (caused by the financial crisis in Russia in April 2014) has been recorded on average since the beginning of the year, leading to a reduction in European overflights too (notably on the flows between Egypt and Russia).

Morocco and United Arab Emirates are respectively the third and the fourth extra-European partners. Then, Israel is the fifth destination from Europe with an average of 125 departures per day over the period January to August 2015.

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The Europe to Israel flow recorded substantial growth rates in July and August (~15% on the same months in 2014), reaching traffic volumes comparable to the flows from Europe to Morocco over the Summer, following the launch of some low-cost connections.

Traffic flows from Europe to Tunisia recorded a substantial decline since the beginning of the year (a 17% drop on average compared with January to August 2014) following the terrorist attacks in March and July. The 2015 traffic volumes between Europe and Tunisia fell to 2011 levels, which were affected by the disruption that followed the Arab spring.

Figure 10: In 2015, the United States overtook Russia as the non-European destination adding the most flights.

Airline industry 2.1.4

Since the beginning of the year, the load factors of European carriers remained in line with the 2014 (record-breaking) ones on Europe cross-border flows (see Figure 11), with a noticeable improvement in July/August.

Figure 11. 2015 European load factors remained comparable to 2014 record highs, even improving in July/August (Source: AEA).

Figure 13 shows the traffic development per market segment. Over the January to August 2015 period, the low-cost segment maintained its dominant growth position, with a growth rate of nearly 6% and was followed by the traditional

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scheduled segment, which grew by 0.7% since the beginning of 2015 (vs. same period 2014).

Part of the low-cost segment’s growth is related to the fact that some traditional carriers, as part of restructuring, have handed their short-haul journeys to low-cost carriers. On the growth side, the all-cargo segment posted an average of 0.8% growth since the beginning of the year.

Business aviation recorded a decrease of 1.9%. Charter (non-scheduled) was the weakest market segment, with a fall of 13% compared with the period a year ago. This was mainly due to a decline in traffic to/from Russia and Tunisia. In addition, the charter segment decrease was also attributed to a number of aircraft operators moving to a more scheduled operation in 2015, compared with last year.

Figure 12. Low-Cost is the only segment which has grown consistently at a modest rate of 6%.

Airline ticket price growth in Europe seems to have accelerated since the beginning of the year (Figure 14). Ticket price inflation has stood at an average level of 1.5% since the beginning of 2015. The trough in April 2015 was mostly driven by Easter.

Figure 13. In 2015, the trend in ticket price changes (air travel) in Europe increased to some 1.5% more than the year before, on a 12-month trailing average. Note that, on this graph,

ticket prices are deflated by overall consumer prices

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As Figure 15 shows, oil prices fell to some €43 per barrel in August; prices averaged out at €51 since the beginning of the year. Fuel prices have consequently been low, with an average of €500 per tonne since the beginning of 2015.

Figure 14. In 2015, oil prices hovered around €50 per barrel.

2.2 En-route Service Units

During the first eight months of 2015, the total service units (TSU) for the CRCO14 region increased by 5.1% from 88.5 million in the year-ago period to 92.6 million. Such an increase of 5.1% is above even the high scenario (+4.8%) published in the February forecast for 2015.

Figure 15. Evolution of total service units recorded in CRCO11 area from January 2011 to July 2015.

When comparing the TSU produced over the period January-July 2015 (compared to the same period last year), we observed that:

Re-routings in the South-East axis further to the closure of the Eastern Ukraine airspace led to variations in TSU growth for neighbouring CRCO14 states. As a result, TSU for Bulgaria, Georgia, Hungary,

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Bosnia-Herzegovina and Turkey have still increased by more than 15% each (and up to 25% for Bulgaria) whereas Ukraine and Moldova have respectively decreased by 67% and 58%.

Similarly, the route changes over the North-African area led to TSU increases in Greece, Cyprus and Malta (respectively 12%, 10% and 6%).

Amongst the North-West European States (in terms of TSU), France and Netherlands have increased by 2% each, Germany and UK by 1% each while Belgium/Luxembourg TSU increased by 5%.

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3 Forecast inputs and assumptions

The forecast is driven by past trends and by scenario assumptions for the future. Since February, the economic forecast remained mainly unchanged at European level. However at State level, we observed some significant changes (Greece downwards revision and the Scandinavian countries upwards revision,…). Moreover, the recent events in Tunisia have led to some changes in tourism destinations for the summer period. The airspace unavailability over Ukraine, Libya, and Near-East are still generating changes in routings and currently changing the pattern of Eastern Europe flight growth. Lacking any indication of when there might be a re-opening of these airspaces, we assumed that these new routing patterns will be used until the end of the forecast (2021).

The forecast is derived from historical traffic data and a set of scenario assumptions. All the input assumptions made in the February forecast (e.g., load factors evolution, demographics, high-speed rail network development etc, see Ref.2) have been reused, except for the economic growth forecast and the specific events and traffic trends. Sections 3.1 and 3.2 describe how they influence the forecast.

As usual, there are three scenarios presented in this forecast. The “Base” scenario represents the most-likely development of the traffic and is an intermediate point between a “Low” scenario (weak growth) and a “High” scenario (strong growth).

3.1 Economic growth

Forecasts of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) are provided by the Oxford Economics Ltd (OE) forecast of August 2015 for all States6 and regions. The high‐ and low‐growth scenarios are based on fixed offsets7 from these forecasts.

Economic forecast for Europe

Figure 16 illustrates how little the economic forecast for EU countries has changed since the preparation of the February flight forecast (indicated as MTF15). The economic outlook for EU has been slightly revised downwards for the 7-year-horizon (2015-2021) in the OE August release (indicated as MTF15b), mostly due to a downgrade in 2015.

6 No State requested the use of a specific forecast other than OEF.

7 +1%, -1% for early years and big States, +1.5%, -1.5% for early years and small States, +0.5%, -0.5% for late years and big States, +0.8%, -0.8% for late years and small States.

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Figure 16. EU GDP forecast remained largely unchanged across the horizon since the OE January 2015 revision.

Details per state

The GDP forecasts are shown for all forecasted states and groupings in Figure 17 as well as for certain non-European states in Figure 18. For all other States, the economic growth of the traffic region is used (Figure 19). Traffic regions are listed in Figure 35.

Figure 17. GDP Growth by Traffic Zone. Source: 2005-2021 from Oxford Economics Ltd (Aug2015)

Comments: Real GDP Growth in Euro. Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 19/08/2015

Actual Base

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Albania 1.3% 0.4% 1.4% 2.4% 3.1% 3.3% 3.4% 3.4% 3.2% 3.2%

Armenia 7.1% 3.5% 3.4% -0.3% 1.0% 4.4% 5.5% 5.0% 4.7% 4.7%

Austria 0.7% 0.3% 0.5% 0.7% 1.3% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7%

Azerbaijan 2.2% 5.8% 2.8% 3.3% 3.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.9% 4.9%

Belarus 1.5% 1.1% 1.6% -1.4% 1.5% 2.1% 2.9% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2%

Belgium/Luxembourg 0.1% 0.3% 1.1% 1.3% 1.6% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7%

Bosnia-Herzegovina -1.2% 2.5% 0.9% 2.5% 3.5% 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.3% 3.3%

Bulgaria 0.4% 0.9% 1.5% 1.7% 2.7% 3.4% 3.5% 3.8% 3.4% 3.4%

Canary Islands -2.1% -1.2% 1.4% 3.2% 2.7% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9%

Croatia -2.4% -0.8% -0.4% 0.3% 1.7% 2.4% 2.4% 2.1% 1.6% 1.6%

Cyprus -2.4% -5.4% -2.3% 0.3% 1.3% 1.4% 1.8% 2.2% 3.4% 3.4%

Czech Republic -0.8% -0.5% 2.0% 3.2% 2.7% 2.8% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%

Denmark -0.7% -0.5% 1.1% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8%

Estonia 4.7% 1.6% 2.1% 2.0% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.0% 3.8% 3.8%

FYROM -0.5% 2.7% 3.8% 3.5% 3.9% 3.7% 3.5% 3.2% 2.9% 2.9%

Finland -1.4% -1.1% -0.4% -0.4% 1.0% 1.8% 2.1% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3%

France 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 1.3% 1.7% 1.6% 1.5% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5%

Georgia 6.4% 3.3% 3.9% 2.2% 2.8% 4.4% 5.0% 5.1% 4.5% 4.5%

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Actual Base

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Germany 0.6% 0.2% 1.6% 1.6% 2.2% 1.7% 1.3% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9%

Greece -6.6% -4.0% 0.7% -0.5% -3.6% -1.7% 0.9% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5%

Hungary -1.5% 1.7% 3.5% 3.0% 2.6% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.0% 2.0%

Iceland 1.3% 3.6% 1.9% 3.5% 3.0% 2.8% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

Ireland 0.1% 1.6% 5.2% 4.9% 4.9% 3.9% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7%

Italy -2.8% -1.7% -0.4% 0.6% 1.0% 1.1% 1.0% 1.0% 0.9% 0.9%

Latvia 4.8% 4.2% 2.4% 2.6% 3.8% 4.5% 4.5% 4.5% 4.0% 4.0%

Lisbon FIR -4.0% -1.6% 0.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0%

Lithuania 3.8% 3.3% 2.9% 2.1% 3.6% 4.4% 4.4% 4.3% 3.3% 3.3%

Malta 2.5% 2.4% 3.5% 3.3% 2.8% 2.2% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%

Moldova -0.7% 8.9% 4.6% -1.8% 3.1% 3.8% 4.1% 4.4% 4.0% 4.0%

Morocco 2.7% 4.7% 2.4% 4.6% 3.9% 4.5% 4.7% 4.9% 5.0% 5.0%

Netherlands -1.1% -0.4% 1.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 1.7% 1.6% 1.8% 1.8%

Norway 2.5% 0.8% 2.2% 1.0% 0.7% 1.9% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9%

Poland 1.9% 1.7% 3.4% 3.7% 3.9% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 2.7% 2.7%

Romania 0.7% 3.2% 2.8% 3.3% 3.5% 3.6% 3.0% 2.9% 3.5% 3.5%

Santa Maria FIR -4.0% -1.6% 0.9% 1.7% 1.4% 1.3% 1.2% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0%

Serbia/Montenegro -1.0% 2.6% -1.8% -0.2% 1.7% 2.5% 3.0% 3.3% 3.2% 3.2%

Slovakia 1.6% 1.4% 2.4% 2.9% 3.1% 3.3% 3.5% 3.4% 2.6% 2.6%

Slovenia -2.5% -1.0% 2.5% 2.2% 2.4% 2.8% 3.3% 3.1% 3.1% 3.1%

Spain -2.1% -1.2% 1.4% 3.2% 2.7% 2.3% 2.2% 2.1% 1.9% 1.9%

Sweden 0.1% 1.3% 2.4% 2.7% 2.9% 2.3% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%

Switzerland 1.1% 1.9% 2.0% 0.4% 1.5% 2.0% 1.9% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5%

Turkey 2.1% 4.2% 2.9% 3.2% 3.5% 3.7% 3.8% 3.8% 3.7% 3.7%

UK 0.7% 1.7% 3.0% 2.6% 2.8% 2.5% 2.3% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5%

Ukraine 0.2% -0.0% -6.8% -9.2% 2.0% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

ESRA08 -0.2% 0.5% 1.5% 1.9% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 1.8%

Figure 18. GDP Growth by Origin-Destination Zone. Source: 1993-2004 from STATFOR records. 2005 onwards from Oxford Economics Ltd, Aug15.

Comments: Real GDP Growth in Euro. Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 20/08/2015

Actual Base

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Brazil 1.8% 2.7% 0.1% -2.4% -0.3% 1.1% 1.7% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%

China 7.7% 7.7% 7.4% 6.6% 5.9% 5.7% 5.5% 5.3% 5.1% 5.1%

India 4.4% 6.4% 7.1% 7.5% 7.5% 7.0% 6.8% 6.7% 6.0% 6.0%

Israel 3.0% 3.4% 2.8% 2.9% 3.6% 4.3% 4.3% 3.9% 3.4% 3.4%

South Africa 2.2% 2.2% 1.5% 2.1% 2.3% 2.8% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 3.1%

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Figure 19. GDP Growth by Traffic Region. Source: 2005 onwards updated from Oxford Economics Aug15

Comments: Real GDP Growth. Units: Growth per year. Data last updated: 20/08/2015

Actual Base

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Asia/Pacific 2.6% 2.5% 1.6% 1.9% 2.8% 2.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.0%

ESRA East 0.5% 1.3% 2.7% 3.1% 3.3% 3.1% 3.1% 3.0% 2.7% 2.7%

ESRA Mediterranean -2.1% -0.7% 0.8% 1.8% 1.7% 1.8% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9%

ESRA North-West 0.4% 0.8% 1.7% 1.8% 2.1% 2.0% 1.8% 1.7% 1.7% 1.7%

Mid-Atlantic 2.2% 1.5% 2.4% 2.2% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5%

Middle-East 3.8% 2.6% 2.1% 2.4% 3.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.6% 3.7% 3.7%

North Atlantic 2.2% 1.5% 2.4% 2.2% 2.7% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.5% 2.5%

North-Africa 27% -4.5% -5.3% 2.3% 6.6% 6.0% 7.8% 7.3% 4.2% 4.2%

Other Europe 3.3% 1.7% 1.0% -2.6% 1.3% 3.0% 3.3% 3.1% 2.7% 2.7%

South-Atlantic 3.1% 3.6% 1.0% 0.5% 1.8% 3.5% 3.6% 3.8% 3.3% 3.3%

Southern Africa 3.5% 5.8% 5.1% 5.1% 5.5% 5.6% 5.7% 5.5% 5.3% 5.3%

Looking at a state-by-state comparison of the change in GDP growth between the current and the previous forecast for 2015 (see Figure 20), more significant revisions can be observed.

Figure 20. GDP growth change per State in 2015 between this forecast (MTF15b) and the previous one (MTF15).

Significant changes were observed among busiest States in Europe: while UK forecast has been revised downwards by 0.4% due to expenditure components growing less than previously estimated; Spain, Italy, Netherlands, Germany and France have on their side been lifted upwards (by 0.8%, 0.5%, 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively). The economic crisis affecting Greece explains the negative revision of the GDP forecast by 3.1%. To a less extent, Turkey was expected to grow more slowly. Despite a downwards revision in the previous forecast due to the continuing Russia-Ukraine crisis, Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus, Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia have seen a further negative revision of their economic growth. Armenia and Georgia were also revised downwards triggered by deterioration in things in Russia (4.1% and 2.9%, respectively). On the other hand, Ireland and Iceland are revised upwards benefiting of the boost of their export thanks to the low euro. The Scandinavian countries (Sweden, Norway, and to a lower extent Denmark) are also revised positively since they

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are expected to be less affected by the economic troubles than earlier foreseen by OE. Finland is however again revised downwards.

Looking at the cumulated change over the seven years in terms of GDP growth, the results are a projection of 2015 revisions. For Germany, the OE forecast has a more optimistic forecast for the next seven years than that of the German Government one, used in the February forecast.

Figure 21. GDP growth cumulative change per State by 2021 between this forecast (MTF15b) and the previous one (MTF15).

3.2 Events and trends

The ‘events and trends’ assumptions consist of adjustments to arrival, departure, internal, overflight traffic and also en-route service units. The effects considered are described in the remainder of this section.

Traffic patterns

The economic crisis in Russia observed since the second half of 2014 has had a major impact on traffic flows to and from Russia. In the first half of 2015, these flows were down by 20% compared to the same period last year (see Section 2.1). Important declines in arrival/departures traffic to and from Russia have been foreseen until end of 2016.

Following the terrorist attack in Tunisia on 26 June, flights were down 33% in July (see Section 2.1). Similar declines in arrival/departures traffic to and from Tunisia have been foreseen until end of the Summer 2016.

The recovery scenario foreseen for Egypt in the February forecast assumptions was cancelled since tourist traffic is again under pressure due to perceived threat from terrorism.

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No specific adjustment has been made to traffic of any of the States affected by the re-routings due to the airspace unavailabilities (Ukraine and Libya, Iraq) since most of these route changes have been observed in the traffic trends from the second half of 2014. The recent changes observed at the end of August with the reopening of four routes in the airspace over the Black Sea should already be partially taken into account, but it is too soon to make robust estimates of their effect. Lacking any indication of when there might be a re-opening of other routes in Ukraine, we assumed there will be no restoration of pre-crisis traffic patterns (“normal” routings). This means that these new routing patterns observed in Eastern Europe will be used until the end of the forecast (2021).

Airline failures

Some adjustments have been made to model the impact of airline failures (namely Cyprus Airways declared bankrupt on January 2015, failure of B&H Airlines in Bosnia-Herzegovina in February 2015 and EuroLOT in Poland suspending operations from April 2015). Such events are modelled by short-term impacts on the concerned flows to assume a return to previous traffic levels within 1 year as other companies fill the gaps. Some other failures from European airlines with small market shares were observed but not modelled due to their limited impact.

Sport events

EURO2016 (European football cup) to be held in France from 10 June to 10 July 2016 (9 sites) is likely to have a small impact on traffic in France. In accordance with estimates from the DGAC/France, STATFOR derived expected impact based on the EURO2008 and EURO2012 historical data. French Arrivals/Departures and Internal flows are expected to see 0.1% and 0.08% additional traffic respectively.

EURO2020 (European football cup) to be held in 13 different European countries (Azerbaijan, Belgium, Denmark, Germany, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Netherlands, Romania, Russia, Scotland, Spain, UK holding the final and semi-finals) during the middle of 2020 is likely to have a small impact on traffic in those countries. We derived expected impact based on the EURO2008 (co-organised by Austria and Switzerland) historical data. Since most of the extra flights are generated during the final and semi-finals, 80% of the total impact was attributed to the UK. The rest of the impact was split between the other countries.

Other adjustments

Some other adjustments have been made, based on best information available about schedules patterns as well as preliminary slot bookings for the next 12 months (Winter 2015/16 and Summer 2016).

The assumptions presented here have been constructed solely in support of the forecast and do not represent any political view of EUROCONTROL.

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4 Growth in IFR flights to 2021

The new forecast is for 11.2 million IFR flight movements (±0.9 million) in Europe in 2021, 16% more than in 2014. In 2015 we expect a growth in flights of 1.6% (±0.4 pp), which is very close to the February forecast (slight upwards revision). These high-level figures, however, hide larger local differences.

From 2016 onwards, European flight growth is expected to be back at around 2.2% per year. The 2008 peak of traffic of 10.1 million flights is forecasted to be reached again by 2017; a 9-year hiatus as already stated in the February 2015 forecast publication.

Any user of the forecast is strongly advised to consider the low-to-high ranges.

Figure 22. Summary of the forecast for Europe.

ESRA08 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 AAGR

2021/2014

RP1 2014/2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

IFR Flight Movements (Thousands)

H . . . . 9,786 10,181 10,592 10,965 11,316 11,759 12,112 3.4% . 3.3%

B 9,784 9,548 9,447 9,604 9,754 9,978 10,208 10,447 10,673 10,957 11,158 2.2% -0.6% 2.1%

L . . . . 9,714 9,724 9,757 9,844 9,937 10,062 10,119 0.7% . 0.7%

Annual Growth (compared to previous year

unless otherwise mentioned)

H . . . . 1.9% 4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.2% 3.9% 3.0% 3.4% . 3.3%

B 3.1% -2.4% -1.1% 1.7% 1.6% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.7% 1.8% 2.2% -0.6% 2.1%

L . . . . 1.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.7% . 0.7%

More detailed results are provided in Annex 2 , Annex 3 and Annex 4 to support this overview. The forecast details per States for the 2-year horizon are shown in Figure 23 and Figure 24.

4.1 Short-term outlook (2015-2016)

At European level, the flight forecast remains mostly unchanged in 2015 with a growth of 1.6% (±0.4 pp). This represents a small upwards revision of 0.1 pp versus the February forecast. These high-level figures, however, hide large local differences.

In 2016, European flight growth is revised downwards by 0.7 pp to a growth of 2.3% for 2016. The leap year effect accounts for 0.3% of the growth. There is a wide uncertainty (±1.9 pp) between the low and high scenario due to more downside assumptions8 lowering the low scenario.

8 Egypt financial crisis, Tunisia tourism crisis,…

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Figure 23. Flight forecast details for 2015.

Figure 24. Flight forecast details for 2016.

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Northern Europe

The upwards revision of the economic forecast of the Scandinavian countries (see Section 3.1) as well as the shift of flows between North-West Europe and North-Atlantic to more northerly routes (see Section 2.1) have positively impacted their flight forecasts for 2015: Sweden +3.3 pp, Norway +1.8 pp, Finland +1.7 pp and Denmark +1.4 pp. The upwards revision foreseen for 2016 is more limited.

North-West Europe

Out of the five busiest European States, the forecast for Germany has slightly been revised upwards (+0.4 pp) compared to the February 2015 forecast thanks to higher arrival/departures boosted by the revision of its economic growth. As explained in Section 2.1, the number of overflights over Germany has not been negatively impacted by the increase of its unit rates (airlines have mainly minimised the distance flown over Germany). However, the latter generated some routing changes over the neighbouring countries explaining largely the upwards revision of our forecast for Netherlands (+1.6 pp) and Belgium/Luxembourg (+0.8 pp).

Flight forecast for UK and France remains constant compared to the February 2015 forecast with a growth expected to equal 1.9% and 1.3% in 2015 (respectively).

The Ireland forecast has been revised upwards thanks to strong economic growth as well as shifts in traffic more northerly on flows between North-America and North-West Europe recently (see Section 2.1).

Southern Europe

Even if July and August recorded the busiest traffic levels since records began at European level, the number of flights (Arrival/Departures) in the summer has been lower than expected in Southern Europe. Accordingly, forecasts for 2015 have been revised downwards for Greece (-2.7 pp), Italy (-1.4 pp), Spain (-1.2 pp) and Canary Islands (-4.4 pp). Lisbon FIR forecast has however been slightly revised upwards (0.4 pp).

Forecast for Malta has been revised upwards in 2015 to 1.1% (+5.6 pp versus February forecast) thanks to higher Arrival/Departures and overflights. The latter are higher-than-expected in spite of the Libyan airspace closure notably thanks to re-balancing of the flows between Malta and Greece. This factor also explain partially the downwards revision of the Greek forecast.

Turkey remains the biggest European contributor to the network growth. Traffic forecast for Turkey is set for higher growth of 7.6% (+2.6 pp versus February forecast) thanks to strong international arrivals/departures since July and a renewed growth in domestic flows.

The 2016 flight forecast for all these States remains mostly unchanged compared to the February publication.

Eastern Europe

The forecast of Ukraine for 2015 has been strongly revised upwards (+22.9 pp) due to higher number of overflights than foreseen in February. A correction in the Ukraine overflight countings has been performed for December 2014 and

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January 2015 to integrate a change in airspace definition. This also highly impacted Moldova forecast (+28.8 pp), both also revised upwards.

The re-routed flights avoiding Eastern Ukraine on flows between Europe and Middle-East/Far East Asia impact positively the forecasts of the central European States: Hungary +6.8 pp, Serbia & Montenegro +4.7 pp, Czech Republic +4.8 pp, Bulgaria +3.9 pp and Slovakia +3.0 pp.

The 2016 flight forecast for all these States has also been revised but on a smaller scale.

Europe as a whole

The upwards and downwards revisions observed at state level and discussed above balanced out. 2015 forecast for Europe is now for a 1.6% (±0.4 pp) flight growth, see Figure 23, a slight upwards revision of 0.1 percentage points compared to the February forecast.

2016 forecast for Europe is now for a 2.3% (with a wide uncertainty of ±1.9 pp due to scenario on Egypt and Tunisia) flight growth, see Figure 24, a downwards revision of 0.7 percentage point compared to the February forecast. Traffic growth rates are expected to be more homogeneous across Western Europe than in 2015.

4.2 Medium-term outlook (up to 2021)

After 2016, traffic growth in Europe stabilises at around 2.2% increase per year in the base scenario. The annual rates in 2016 and 2020 are influenced by the extra growth from the leap year effect9, with a complementary downward effect in 2017 and 2021.

In the 2017-2020 horizon, the annual growth rate will reach 2.4% notably thanks to additional capacity brought by the third airport in Turkey from end 2017, lifting the constraints on the European network. However, the capacity constraints will weigh again in 2021 with a growth rate levelling off at 1.8%. Altogether, adjusting for the effect of the leap year effect from 2020, this represents a 2.1% growth.

Any user of the forecast is strongly advised to use the forecast range (low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. This forecast includes downside risks (e.g. capacity reductions in response to weaker demand) and upside risks (e.g. current high load factors might not be able to absorb the passenger demand when traffic begins to grow again). These are discussed in Section 6. By 2021, the high-growth scenario has 0.9 million more and low-growth scenario 1 million fewer flights than the base scenario.

As Figure 25 and Figure 26 show, the growth is not uniform across Europe. While the growth (in percentage terms) is much weaker in the more mature markets of Western Europe, it is still the busiest States (France, Germany

9 As growth rates are based on total traffic counts per year, not average.

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followed by Italy, Spain and UK) which will see the greatest number of extra flights per day.

Figure 25. Average Annual Growth of Flights per State, 2021 v 2014.

Figure 26. Number of additional movements per day for each State (2021 v 2014).

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Turkey will both see the fastest growth rates (5.5% as average annual growth rate over the 7 years) and the highest number of extra flights per day (1,586 additional flights per day in 2021), being the biggest contributor to the growth in Europe.

Figure 27 shows the corresponding Figure 25 at functional airspace block level (FAB). Danube FAB is expected to have the highest average annual growth rate (4.1%) over the next seven years. FAB CE, Baltic FAB, Blue Med FAB, South West FAB and UK-Ireland FABs are the busiest European FABs with average annual growth rates higher than 2%. All other FABs have AAGR lower than 2% with NEFAB having the lower growth with 1.3%.

Figure 27. Average Annual Growth in Flights per FAB, 2021 v 2014.

Annex 3 and Annex 4 give the details of forecast traffic and growth per State and areas (FAB, EU28,…).

As Figure 28 shows, the average annual growth rate for flights departing Europe to outside European regions is likely to be higher than the rate within Europe itself over the next seven years due to the increasing globalisation. Africa, Middle-East and Asia/Pacific (especially China) regions are likely to attract European traffic due to the higher expected GDP growth.

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Figure 28. Average annual growth on main flows from Europe, 2021 versus 2014 (base scenario).

4.3 Comparison with previous forecast

Globally, the baseline forecast is lower than the February 2015 forecast (see Ref. 8).

Figure 29. For total Europe, current forecast is aligned with previous forecast (dated February 2015).

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As illustrated in Figure 29, the current forecast (MTF15b) for total Europe is lower than the previous seven-year forecast issued in February 2015 (MTF15). The first year of the forecast shows narrower low-to-high ranges because the uncertainty has now been reduced in the short-term. As of 2016 and until the end of the seven-year period, the uncertainty is now wider especially due to more downside assumptions lowering the low scenario.

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5 Service unit growth to 2021

Thanks to a combination of strong flight growth during the summer as well as continuing route changes over Central Europe as a result of the airspace closures since spring 2014, a stronger growth in the service units is expected by the end of the year compared to February 2015 forecast.

In 2015, 137.7 million service units are expected to be produced in EUROCONTROL member States (CRCO14). This is a 0.8 percentage point revision upwards compared to the February 2015 forecast.

For 2016 and the following years, the higher growth rates are expected to fade out and the average annual growth rate of 2.8% for the states participating to the Performance Scheme is in line with the February 2015 forecast publication with a marginal decrease of 0.2 percentage point.

For Terminal Navigation Service Units in the countries participating to the Performance Scheme in the Second Reference Period (RP2), the forecast for 2015 has been revised upwards by 0.3 percentage point and is expected to reach 7.5 million by the end of 2015. Following similar trends as the en-route service units, growth will then slow and the average annual growth between 2014 and 2021 will stand at 2.7% to reach 8.7 million by 2021.

5.1 En-route Service units (TSU)

Following the upward revision in the flight forecast for 2015, en-route service units are expected to end 2015 higher than expected in the forecast of February 2015.

This is mainly for the same reasons as for the flight forecast changes but also by additional overflights and flights added to the states in the CRCO14 since the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine crisis and the shift of flights over Ukraine and Moldova more southerly over CRCO14 area. These route changes have also brought to some Eastern European countries changes in distances and weights that have generated a strong disparity between service units and flight growth rates: with TSU growing significantly more than flights as in Austria, Slovenia and Bosnia-Herzegovina; or less than flights as in the Czech Republic and Slovakia with the shift of flights. That being said, new routes have opened in the Black-Sea area since August that should reduce this shifting and limit the growth expected in the future years in the area.

The route changes in and around Germany described in Section 2.1 as a result of a higher unit rate, have also led to a downwards revision of expected TSU in Germany and contributed to additional growth for the countries around as in Belgium/Luxembourg and the Netherlands than in the February 2015 forecast.

In 2015, 137.7 million service units (TSU) are expected to be produced. This is 4.2% more than in 2014 and a revision up by 0.6 pp compared to the February 2015 forecast. The 2015 flight forecast for Europe (ESRA08) has slightly been revised upwards by 0.1pp from 1.5% (in the previous release) to 1.6%.

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Years 3 to 7 of the forecast have been fully updated and take into account new routings, average weight and distance levels resulting from the recent events in Europe such as described in Section 2.

The total en-route service units in the participating EUROCONTROL member states (CRCO14) are expected to grow by 3.8% (±1.8pp) in 2016 compared to 2015 and reach 142.9 million. This is a slight downwards revision compared to the 3.9% growth forecast in February 2015. The service units will end in 2021 0.4 million lower than expected in the February 2015 forecast following marginally slower flight growth rates, reaching in total 165.1 million in 2021 which represents an average growth rate of 3.4%.

For those States participating in the Performance Scheme (RP2 Region), the average annual growth during RP2 (2019 versus a baseline year of 2014) is 2.8% (±1.3 pp), slightly lower than the 3% per year from the February forecast. In RP2 Region, by 2021, the TSU are expected to reach 134.9 million representing a baseline scenario with a total growth of 21% compared to 2014.

Figure 30 compares the evolution of the forecast between the February 2015 forecast and this new forecast release for the CRCO14 grouping. As from 2015 onwards, TSU have been marginally revised downwards by 0.2 percentage point from 2016 to 2021, resulting in overall lower TSU forecast from 2019 onwards. The TSU in 2021 is foreseen to be 0.2 percentage point lower than in the February 2015 forecast. This variation from forecast to forecast is well within the low-to-high-scenario range, including for 2015 despite the revision upwards of its forecast (4.2% new forecast vs. February high scenario of 4.8%).

Figure 30. Comparison 2015-2021 of the forecast between the current TSU forecast and February 2015 for CRCO14 Area.

Any user of this seven-year forecast should consult the entire forecast range (low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. This forecast includes downside risks (e.g. the economic indicators could worsen) and upside risks

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(e.g. high load factors could trigger higher traffic numbers sooner-than-expected). Section 6 elaborates further on risks.

For the TSU in CRCO14, by 2021, the high-growth scenario has 15.5 million more and low-growth scenario has 15.8 million fewer TSU than the base scenario (+/-12% in terms of growth respectively).

The average annual growth figures per State can be found in Figure 47. The detailed forecasts for each State are in Annex 6 and Figure 46.

Figure 31. Summary of forecast of total service units in Europe.

Total en-route service units (Thousands)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

2021/ 2014 Total

Growth

RP1 2014/ 2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

CRCO14*

H . . . . 138,316 145,946 153,151 159,892 166,395 174,226 180,666 37% . 4.7%

B 123,939 122,298 124,910 132,130 137,723 142,947 147,257 151,817 156,195 161,240 165,131 25% 2.2% 3.4%

L . . . . 137,100 139,601 140,922 143,088 145,267 147,762 149,298 13% . 1.9%

RP1Region†

H . . . . 113,550 119,294 124,617 129,707 134,460 140,296 144,832 32% . 4.1%

B 105,126 103,572 105,235 109,910 113,088 116,920 120,003 123,308 126,450 130,141 132,804 21% 1.5% 2.8%

L . . . . 112,604 114,310 115,025 116,460 117,838 119,501 120,405 10% . 1.4%

RP2Region†

H . . . . 115,342 121,172 126,583 131,757 136,593 142,525 147,143 32% . 4.1%

B 106,761 105,251 106,930 111,670 114,870 118,746 121,875 125,234 128,430 132,182 134,892 21% 1.5% 2.8%

L . . . . 114,375 116,081 116,803 118,263 119,666 121,359 122,280 10% . 1.4%

Total en-route service units

(Growth) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

AAGR

2021/ 2014

RP1 2014/ 2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

CRCO14*

H . . . . 4.7% 5.5% 4.9% 4.4% 4.1% 4.7% 3.7% 4.6% . 4.7%

B 5.0% -1.3% 2.1% 5.8% 4.2% 3.8% 3.0% 3.1% 2.9% 3.2% 2.4% 3.2% 2.2% 3.4%

L . . . . 3.8% 1.8% 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 1.0% 1.8% . 1.9%

RP1Region†

H . . . . 3.3% 5.1% 4.5% 4.1% 3.7% 4.3% 3.2% 4.0% . 4.1%

B 4.5% -1.5% 1.6% 4.4% 2.9% 3.4% 2.6% 2.8% 2.5% 2.9% 2.0% 2.7% 1.5% 2.8%

L . . . . 2.5% 1.5% 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 0.8% 1.3% . 1.4%

RP2Region†

H . . . . 3.3% 5.1% 4.5% 4.1% 3.7% 4.3% 3.2% 4.0% . 4.1%

B 4.6% -1.4% 1.6% 4.4% 2.9% 3.4% 2.6% 2.8% 2.6% 2.9% 2.1% 2.7% 1.5% 2.8%

L . . . . 2.4% 1.5% 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 0.8% 1.3% . 1.4%

* CRCO14 designates the sum over all the states participating in the Multilateral Route Charges System in 2014 of all TSU either measured or forecasted for the corresponding year.

† RP1Region stands for the sum over all the 30 states that were involved in the EU-wide performance target setting minus Croatia until 2014 (28 EU member states plus Norway and Switzerland minus Croatia). RP2Region is RP1Region plus Croatia. RP1 and RP2 series include service units for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic (OAT) for Germany.

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Figure 32. Average annual growth of service units between 2014 and 2021.

5.2 Terminal Navigation Service Units (TNSU)

Underlying growth in TNSU is driven by the same factors which influence flight growth (see Section 2.1) with the trend for increasing average weight having an additional effect. This TNSU forecast is based on the 2015-2021 IFR flight forecast (Section 2.1) and uses the CRCO flight database for all States except for Estonia which provided STATFOR with its own data, to capture the necessary information about weight of the aircraft. More details about the TNSU forecast method can be found in Ref.2. The definition of the terminal charging zones (TCZ) is based on the known list of airports per TCZ for RP2 provided by States as available in their RP2 performance plans submitted in June 2015 (see Annex 1 for RP2 region definition and TCZ list). The detailed results per TCZ are given in Annex 8 and Annex 9 .

The expected AAGR for RP2 is 2.7% and by 2021, after the end of the reference period, 8.7 million TNSU are expected for the whole region (Figure 33). With the aim of improving the forecast for RP2, the history for RP1 was reconstructed as detailed in the September 2014 forecast report, including for 2014.

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Figure 33. Total Terminal Navigation Service Units generated in the RP2Region area as defined.

RP2 Region

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

AAGR 2021/ 2014

AAGR RP1

2014/ 2011

AAGR RP2

2019/ 2014

TNSU Total

(thousands)

High . . . . 7,486.9 7,805.0 8,113.4 8,444.6 8,756.9 9,142.3 9,469.2 3.9% . 3.9%

Base 7,376.4 7,234.3 7,223.5 7,266.7 7,463.8 7,667.0 7,853.9 8,071.0 8,274.2 8,536.7 8,734.3 2.7% -0.5% 2.7%

Low . . . . 7,436.4 7,492.6 7,543.4 7,642.9 7,732.5 7,860.8 7,940.9 1.3% . 1.3%

TNSU Annual Growth

(%)

High . . . . 3.0% 4.2% 4.0% 4.1% 3.7% 4.4% 3.6% 3.9% . 3.9%

Base 8.6% -1.9% -0.1% 0.6% 2.7% 2.7% 2.4% 2.8% 2.5% 3.2% 2.3% 2.7% -0.5% 2.7%

Low . . . . 2.3% 0.8% 0.7% 1.3% 1.2% 1.7% 1.0% 1.3% . 1.3%

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6 Risks to the forecast growth

Users of the forecasts are strongly advised to use the forecast range (low-growth to high-growth) as an indicator of risk. These flight and service unit forecasts are prepared in conditions of large changes in traffic routings. For many individual States, these are the biggest risks for traffic growth.

The main sources of uncertainty in the intermediate forecast are as follows.

In percentage terms for individual States, the biggest risks concern the route choices of airlines, which are generally downside risks for some States and simultaneously upside risks for others, balancing out across Europe as a whole:

By 2021 there is a significant probability that some flights through Ukraine will be restored.

Closure of Libyan airspace has reduced Maltese overflights as well as re-routed traffic to southern Africa. It is not clear when normal patterns will be restored.

Unit rates are one of the many factors that influence an airline’s choice of route. Large changes in rates could lead to low single-figure percentage changes in flight counts.

Currently, the Syrian conflict is having an important impact on overflights across South-East Europe. We have not included an end to this in our scenario nor an intensification, though clearly at some point this network disruption will clear and the overflight changes reverse. Avoidance of Iraq and to a lesser extent Sinai is less significant for the forecast.

Previous years have seen persistent (many months) reduction in en route capacity as a result of the introduction of new ATC systems. This results in tactical and strategic re-routing of traffic, enough to affect annual totals. More changes are on the way, presenting further risks, for example Spain, Norway and Turkey have changes planned.

The jet stream influences route choice too, though this is more usually an effect over days or weeks than over the whole year. 2014 saw an unusual pattern for the jet stream, leading to more southerly routings than in the past. We have not adjusted the data for this, nor modelled a future restoration.

More generally, future network changes (e.g., new routes) and airlines’ changing choice of routes are not modelled by the forecast.

The economic forecasts used here were updated in August 2015. The economic outlook remains uncertain. The low scenario provides some guidance here. Economic risks are to some extent synchronised, so do not balance out across Europe as routing risks do.

Two States, Turkey and Russia, have been the predominant drivers of flight growth in recent years. This makes growth sensitive to the continued expansion of these two economies. Sanctions on Russia, and Russia's response to them, are significant for the downward revision of the forecast

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overall. This could improve, but could easily get worse, representing on balance a downside risk.

On the other hand, there are growing competitive pressures for expansion, especially for low-cost carriers, so as aircraft deliveries accelerate we could see more rapid expansion, although in our view this is likely to be localised. The high scenario provides some guidance for this, but only for local, not widespread application.

Load factors remain at or near record highs (Section 2.1). As traffic begins to grow again, this means that load factors might be able to absorb less of the passenger growth than they have in past years. From the present position, the recovery would then come more rapidly than anticipated. This is therefore an upside risk.

We analysed the current airline schedules, but did not find them as a whole credible indicators of Winter traffic, so excluded them from this forecast. In parts, where we could cross-validate against other information, we used partial information. Nevertheless, airlines are likely to adapt their plans as the Winter approaches and progresses. This is on balance an upside downside risk.

Tourism trends are quite variable. The forecast does not identify which will be the new holiday ‘destination of preference’ in a given year. The recent events in both Egypt and Tunisia have led to more variability in tourism destinations. On the whole this is more likely an upside risk.

Oil prices remain changeable investment. With fuel accounting for 25-40%, this can have an effect on fares and cost of travel for customer (see Section 2.1).

Terrorist attacks, wars and natural disasters. Following the February 2014 forecast publication, in which a further volcanic eruption or pandemic were mentioned as some of the risks, both have occurred. The impact on air traffic could be a temporary one, or more significant.

Recent sanctions imposed by Ukraine against Russian airlines (banning them from flying to Ukraine) since September could be a downside risk. Russian Ministry of Transport already confirmed that they will introduce reciprocal measures against Ukrainian airlines from the start of the winter season.

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7 Glossary

AAGR Average annual growth

AD, A/D Arrivals/Departures

AIRAC Aeronautical Information and Regulation and Control

AEA Association of European Airlines

B (in tables) Baseline Scenario

CRCO11 Current states participating to the Multilateral Route Charges System

ESRA Eurocontrol Statistical Reference Area (see Annex 1)

EU27 European Union (27 States)

EU28 European Union (28 States): EU27 plus Croatia.

FAB Functional Airspace Block

FIR Flight Information Region

GDP Gross Domestic Product

H (in tables) High-Growth Scenario

I Internals

ICAO International Civil Aviation Organisation

IFR Instrument Flight Rules

KFOR Kosovo Force

L (in tables) Low-Growth Scenario

MTF Medium-Term (Seven-Year) Forecast

MTF13b September 2013 publication of the MTF

MTF14 February 2014 publication of the MTF

MTF14b September 2014 publication of the MTF

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O Overflights

OE Oxford Economics Ltd

pp percentage point

PScheme States involved in the Performance scheme first period of reference (EU27, Norway and Switzerland – no longer used)

RP1 First Period of Reference (2012-2014) for the Performance Scheme of the SES

RP2 Second Period of Reference (2015-2019) for the Performance Scheme of the SES

RP1Region See PScheme

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RP2Region States involved in the Performance scheme second period of reference (EU28, Norway and Switzerland)

SES Single European Sky

SID STATFOR Interactive Dashboard

STATFOR Eurocontrol Statistics and Forecast Service

TCZ Terminal Charging Zone (a grouping of airports)

TNSU Terminal Navigation Service Units

TSU Total En-Route Service Units

TZ Traffic Zone (≈State, except for Spain, Portugal, Belgium and Luxembourg, Serbia and Montenegro)

UIR Upper Flight Information Region

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Annex 1 Traffic region definitions

ESRA08

The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area (ESRA) is designed to include as much as possible of the ECAC area for which data are available from a range of sources within the Agency. It is used for high-level reports from the Agency, when referring to 'total Europe'. The ESRA changes only slowly with time; a region is added to the ESRA only when there is a full year's data from all sources, so that growth calculations are possible. ‘ESRA08’ was introduced in the MTF09 report. It is now used as a basis for comparison at European level in the forecasts. Note that the EUROCONTROL forecast includes also regions outside of the ESRA (e.g., Armenia and Latvia), though still within ECAC.

Figure 34. The EUROCONTROL Statistical Reference Area.

ESRA08 consists of 34 traffic zones. Traffic zones are defined by an aggregate of FIRs & UIR of States. These do not take delegation of airspace into account. For individual States, the differences between charging areas and ACCs can have a big impact on overflight counts (and thus on total counts where the total is dominated by overflights). For the ESRA as a whole, there is only a small proportion of overflights, so that the difference between a FIR and an ACC definition is small.

Traffic regions

The traffic regions are defined for statistical convenience and do not reflect an official position of the EUROCONTROL Agency. As far as possible, these regions have been aligned with ICAO statistical and forecast regions.

Traffic flows are described as being to or from one of a number of traffic regions listed in Figure 35. Each traffic region is made up of a number of traffic

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zones (=States), which are indicated by the first letters of the ICAO location codes for brevity.

Figure 35. Regions used in flow statistics as of 31 August 2012.

ICAO region/country

ESRA North-West EB, ED, EF, EG, EH, EI, EK, EL, EN, ES, ET, LF, LN, LO, LS

ESRA Mediterranean GC, LC, LE, LG, LI, LM, LP, LT

ESRA East BK, EP, LA, LB, LD, LH, LJ, LK, LQ, LR, LU, LW, LY, LZ, UK

Other Europe BG, BI, EE, EK (Faroe Islands), ENSB (Bodo Oc.), EV, EY, GE, LX, UB, UD, UG, UH, UI, UL, UM, UN, UO, UR, US, UU, UW, Shanwick Oc., Santa Maria FIR

North Atlantic C, K, P

Mid-Atlantic M, T

South-Atlantic S

North-Africa DA, DT, GM, HE, HL

Southern Africa D, F, G, H, (except DA, DT, HE, HL, GC, GM)

Middle-East L, O (except OA, OP)

Asia/Pacific A, N, P, Y, OA, OP, R, V, W, Z (except ZZZZ), U (except UK and areas in Other Europe)

As far as “Europe” is concerned, it is split into two regions: ESRA (defined in the previous section) and Other Europe. For flow purposes, ESRA is split into a “North-West” region mostly of mature air traffic markets, a “Mediterranean” region stretching from the Canaries to Turkey and with a significant tourist element, and an Eastern region. The ‘Other Europe’ region (i.e. non ESRA) includes the States along the border of ESRA and extends from Greenland to the Urals and Azerbaijan.

The map of the nine traffic regions used in our statistics is shown in Figure 36.

Figure 36. Map of the Traffic Regions used in flow statistics.

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CRCO11

"CRCO11" refers to the EUROCONTROL Member States participating in the Multilateral Route Charges System in 2012. This list comprises: Albania, Armenia, Austria, Belgium/Luxembourg, Bosnia-Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Canary Islands, Croatia, Cyprus, Czech Republic, Denmark, FYROM, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Ireland, Italy, Latvia, Lisbon FIR, Lithuania, Malta, Moldova, Netherlands, Norway, Poland, Romania, Santa Maria FIR, Serbia&Montenegro, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, UK.

Functional Airspace Blocks

On top of the traffic zones, this report also presents the forecast of IFR movements from 2014 to 2020 for the Functional Airspace Blocks (FAB). A FAB is a block of airspace based on operational requirements regardless of the State boundaries (Figure 37). FAB initiatives (definitions) are now frozen according to the targets defined to improve the performance of the European air traffic management network. STATFOR defines the FABs based on the FIR10 boundaries. The definition of FAB-FIR is:

UK-Ireland FAB (SCOTTISH FIR&UIR, LONDON FIR&UIR, SHANNON FIR&UIR)

Danish-Swedish FAB (COPENHAGEN FIR, SWEDEN FIR)

Baltic FAB (WARSZAWA FIR, VILNIUS FIR&UIR)

BLUE MED FAB (NICOSIA FIR&UIR, ATHINAI FIR&UIR, BRINDISI FIR&UIR, MILANO FIR&UIR, ROMA FIR&UIR, MALTA FIR&UIR)

Danube FAB (SOFIA FIR, BUCAREST FIR)

FAB CE (ZAGREB FIR, BUDAPEST FIR, LJUBLJANA FIR, PRAHA FIR, WIEN FIR, SARAJEVO FIR&UIR, BRATISLAVA FIR)

FABEC (BRUSSELS FIR&UIR, LANGEN FIR, MUNCHEN FIR, RHEIN UIR, HANNOVER UIR, BREMEN FIR, AMSTERDAM FIR, BORDEAUX FIR, REIMS FIR, PARIS FIR, FRANCE UIR, MARSEILLE FIR, BREST FIR, SWITZERLAND FIR, SWITZERLAND UIR)

North European FAB (TALLINN FIR, FINLAND FIR&UIR, ENOR FIR, RIGA FIR, BODO OCEANIC FIR)

South West FAB (CANARIAS FIR&UIR, LISBOA FIR, MADRID FIR&UIR, BARCELONA FIR&UIR).

The change compared to the previous definition used in the past forecast reports (August 2012-December 2013) consisted in removing the TIRANA FIR from BLUE MED FAB as well as the removal of SOTA and NOTA from UK-Ireland FAB. This new definition is in line with the FAB-FIR definition of the Performance Review Unit (PRU) of EUROCONTROL.

10 Note that the PRU uses the FAB-ANSP definition.

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Figure 37. FABs as stipulated by the European Commission (STATFOR update: January 2014). Source: EUROCONTROL PRU

RPRegions

RP1Region and RP2Region are the two regions involved in the Performance Scheme respectively related to First Reference Period (2012-2014) and Second Review Period (2015-2019).

RP1Region: stands for the sum over all the 29 states that are involved in the EU-wide performance target setting for the first period, namely: 28 EU member states plus Norway plus Switzerland minus Croatia.

RP2Region: stands for the sum over all the 30 states that are involved in the EU-wide performance target setting for the second period, namely: 28 EU member states plus Norway plus Switzerland.

The “SES” and “PScheme” regions presented in previous reports (Traffic Tables of the Annexes) are not reported anymore, as they could introduce some confusion with respect to the RPRegions above mentioned.

Terminal Charging Zones

A “terminal charging zone” is an airport or a group of airports for which a cost-based unit rate is established. The forecast of terminal navigation service units

from 2015 shown in Annex 8 and Annex 9 have been produced based per TCZ based on the definition submitted by the Stakeholders in their RP2 performance plans as available in June 2015.

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The list of aerodromes forming the TCZs during RP2 for the 30 States participating in the SES performance scheme (RP2) can be found in Figure 38. Compared to the February publication, a few changes were implemented in the TCZ:

Bulgaria has taken 4 airports out of its TCZ to keep Sofia airport LBSF only;

Croatia has added one airport: Zagreb/Lucko LDZL;

Poland has added one airport: Olsztyn Mazury EPSY.

We understand that changes may be being considered by States, but they were not available at the time of the forecast production.

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Figure 38. List of aerodromes forming the TCZ in RP2.

Austria

LO_TCZ

LOWG LOWI LOWK LOWL LOWS LOWW

Belgium

EB_TCZ_EBAW

EBAW

Belgium

EB_TCZ_EBBR

EBBR

Belgium

EB_TCZ_EBCI

EBCI

Belgium

EB_TCZ_EBLG

EBLG

Belgium

EB_TCZ_EBOS

EBOS

Bulgaria

LB_TCZ

LBSF

Croatia

LD_TCZ

LDZA LDZL

Cyprus

LC_TCZ

LCLK LCPH

Czech Republic

LK_TCZ

LKKV LKMT LKPR LKTB

Denmark

EK_TCZ

EKCH

Estonia

EE_TCZ

Finland

EF_TCZ

EETN EETU

EFHK

France

LF_TCZ

LFAQ LFBA LFBD LFBE LFBH LFBI LFBL LFBO LFBP LFBT LFBZ LFCR LFGJ LFJL LFJR LFKB LFKC LFKF LFKJ LFLB LFLC LFLL LFLP LFLS LFLX LFLY LFMD LFMH LFMI LFMK LFML LFMN LFMP LFMT LFMU LFMV LFOB LFOH LFOK LFOT LFPB LFPG LFPN LFPO LFQQ LFRB LFRD LFRG LFRH LFRK LFRN LFRO LFRQ LFRS LFRZ LFSB LFSD LFSL LFST LFTH LFTW

Germany

ED_TCZ

EDDB EDDC EDDE EDDF EDDG EDDH EDDK EDDL EDDM EDDN EDDP EDDR EDDS EDDT EDDV EDDW

Greece

LG_TCZ LGAV

Hungary

LH_TCZ LHBP

Ireland

EI_TCZ EICK EIDW EINN

Italy

LI_TCZ_1 LIRF

Italy

LI_TCZ_2 LIMC LIME LIML LIPZ

Latvia

EV_TCZ EVLA EVRA EVVA

Lithuania

EY_TCZ EYKA EYPA EYSA EYVI

Luxembourg

EL_TCZ ELLX

Malta

LM_TCZ LMML

Netherlands

EH_TCZ EHAM EHBK EHGG EHRD

Norway

EN_TCZ ENBR ENGM ENVA ENZV

Poland

EP_TCZ

EPBY EPGD EPKK EPKT EPLB EPLL EPMO EPPO EPRA EPRZ EPSC EPSY EPWA EPWR EPZG

Portugal

LP_TCZ

LPAZ LPFL LPFR LPHR LPMA LPPD LPPR LPPS LPPT

Romania

LR_TCZ LRBS LROP

Slovakia

LZ_TCZ LZIB

Slovenia

LJ_TCZ LJLJ LJMB LJPZ

Spain

LE_TCZ

GCLP LEBL LEMD LEMG LEPA

Sweden

ES_TCZ_A ESSA

Switzerland

LS_TCZ LSGG LSZH

UK

EG_TCZ_B

EGBB EGCC EGGW EGKK EGLC EGLL EGPF EGPH EGSS

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Annex 2 Summary of forecast for ESRA08

Figure 39. Growth in Europe (ESRA08)

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Figure 40. Flights and growth on main flow categories in Europe (ESRA08)

ESRA08

IFR Flight Movements(000s) Annual Growth AAGR 2021/ 2014

RP1 2014/2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Total: Internal

H . . . . 7,625 7,926 8,202 8,441 8,653 8,932 9,138 . . . . 2.4% 3.9% 3.5% 2.9% 2.5% 3.2% 2.3% 3.0% . 3.1%

B 7,790 7,514 7,347 7,444 7,602 7,787 7,936 8,087 8,223 8,410 8,526 3.0% -3.5% -2.2% 1.3% 2.1% 2.4% 1.9% 1.9% 1.7% 2.3% 1.4% 2.0% -1.5% 2.0%

L . . . . 7,574 7,621 7,625 7,670 7,718 7,795 7,816 . . . . 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.6% 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.7% . 0.7%

Total: Arr/Dep

H . . . . 2,016 2,098 2,221 2,341 2,465 2,612 2,742 . . . . 0.3% 4.1% 5.9% 5.4% 5.3% 6.0% 5.0% 4.5% . 4.2%

B 1,883 1,916 1,961 2,009 2,007 2,041 2,114 2,193 2,273 2,361 2,436 3.7% 1.7% 2.4% 2.4% -0.1% 1.7% 3.6% 3.8% 3.7% 3.9% 3.2% 2.8% 2.2% 2.5%

L . . . . 1,997 1,962 1,987 2,023 2,063 2,105 2,135 . . . . -0.6% -1.7% 1.3% 1.8% 1.9% 2.0% 1.5% 0.9% . 0.5%

Total: Overflight

H . . . . 146 157 169 183 198 215 232 . . . . -3.7% 8.1% 7.7% 8.0% 8.2% 8.4% 8.1% 6.3% . 5.6%

B 112 119 139 151 145 150 158 167 176 186 196 -3.4% 6.6% 17% 8.8% -4.3% 4.0% 5.0% 5.6% 5.7% 5.8% 5.3% 3.8% 10.6% 3.1%

L . . . . 143 141 145 151 156 162 167 . . . . -5.2% -1.3% 2.8% 3.6% 3.7% 3.7% 3.2% 1.5% . 0.7%

Grand Total

H . . . . 9,786 10,181 10,592 10,965 11,316 11,759 12,112 . . . . 1.9% 4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.2% 3.9% 3.0% 3.4% . 3.3%

B 9,784 9,548 9,447 9,604 9,754 9,978 10,208 10,447 10,673 10,957 11,158 3.1% -2.4% -1.1% 1.7% 1.6% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.7% 1.8% 2.2% -0.6% 2.1%

L . . . . 9,714 9,724 9,757 9,844 9,937 10,062 10,119 . . . . 1.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.7% . 0.7%

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Figure 41. Busiest bi-directional region-to-region flows for ESRA08

IFR Movements(000s) Annual Growth AAGR 2021/ 2014 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

1 ESRA North-W

ESRA North-W

H . . . . 3466.5 3531.5 3585.7 3631.5 3659.6 3730.1 3758.7 . . . . -0.0% 1.9% 1.5% 1.3% 0.8% 1.9% 0.8% 1.2%

B 3679.4 3581.4 3491.4 3467.5 3459.3 3493.7 3518.8 3536.3 3553.3 3601.8 3614.4 3.0% -2.7% -2.5% -0.7% -0.2% 1.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.5% 1.4% 0.3% 0.6%

L . . . . 3450.0 3445.4 3426.6 3413.2 3403.2 3412.6 3401.4 . . . . -0.5% -0.1% -0.5% -0.4% -0.3% 0.3% -0.3% -0.3%

2 ESRA Mediter

ESRA North-W

H . . . . 1835.7 1929.3 2008.5 2077.3 2137.2 2209.7 2260.7 . . . . 4.0% 5.1% 4.1% 3.4% 2.9% 3.4% 2.3% 3.6%

B 1674.8 1653.8 1680.2 1765.5 1829.5 1889.2 1930.4 1975.0 2015.7 2063.4 2092.9 6.2% -1.3% 1.6% 5.1% 3.6% 3.3% 2.2% 2.3% 2.1% 2.4% 1.4% 2.5%

L . . . . 1822.1 1844.2 1844.9 1860.6 1876.0 1894.6 1900.0 . . . . 3.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 0.3% 1.1%

3 ESRA Mediter

ESRA Mediter

H . . . . 1378.3 1458.8 1540.9 1606.2 1670.4 1738.8 1807.2 . . . . 4.9% 5.8% 5.6% 4.2% 4.0% 4.1% 3.9% 4.7%

B 1480.4 1350.0 1266.2 1313.4 1373.1 1426.1 1472.6 1523.3 1564.1 1612.7 1652.6 0.9% -8.8% -6.2% 3.7% 4.5% 3.9% 3.3% 3.4% 2.7% 3.1% 2.5% 3.3%

L . . . . 1366.6 1382.6 1395.3 1420.2 1446.0 1476.3 1490.9 . . . . 4.0% 1.2% 0.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.1% 1.0% 1.8%

4 ESRA East ESRA North-W

H . . . . 549.8 585.3 618.4 649.2 678.7 713.7 741.2 . . . . 6.7% 6.4% 5.7% 5.0% 4.6% 5.2% 3.8% 5.3%

B 520.3 520.4 525.8 515.5 547.5 570.7 590.2 609.7 629.2 651.0 667.8 1.9% 0.0% 1.0% -1.9% 6.2% 4.2% 3.4% 3.3% 3.2% 3.5% 2.6% 3.8%

L . . . . 544.7 554.6 559.7 567.8 575.8 584.8 590.2 . . . . 5.7% 1.8% 0.9% 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 0.9% 2.0%

5 ESRA North-W

North Atlant H . . . . 315.2 325.0 331.3 338.0 344.3 355.5 361.9 . . . . 5.3% 3.1% 1.9% 2.0% 1.9% 3.3% 1.8% 2.7%

B 302.0 293.7 292.2 299.4 314.7 322.9 327.4 331.8 336.4 341.8 345.1 4.6% -2.7% -0.5% 2.5% 5.1% 2.6% 1.4% 1.3% 1.4% 1.6% 1.0% 2.0%

L . . . . 314.1 319.5 321.4 323.1 325.0 327.4 328.4 . . . . 4.9% 1.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.6% 0.7% 0.3% 1.3%

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Annex 3 Seven-year flight forecast per state (IFR Movements)

This appendix presents the flight forecast details. On top of the average annual growth rates (AAGR) over the 7-year horizon, average annual growth rates over the first reference period (RP1) and the second reference period (RP2) of the Performance Scheme have been added to the tables.

Figure 42. Forecast of the number of IFR Movements (thousands) per State.

IFR Movements (thousands) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 AAGR 2021/ 2014

RP1 2014/2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

Albania H . . . . 210 231 241 250 260 271 280 5.1% . .

B 197 195 201 198 209 226 231 237 244 251 257 3.8% . .

L . . . . 208 220 220 223 227 231 233 2.3% . .

Armenia H . . . . 46 51 55 60 64 69 74 5.6% . .

B 57 56 52 51 45 49 52 55 58 61 64 3.5% . .

L . . . . 45 46 47 49 51 52 54 1.0% . .

Austria H . . . . 1,177 1,229 1,282 1,333 1,377 1,434 1,478 3.6% . 3.6%

B 1,154 1,133 1,114 1,152 1,173 1,201 1,231 1,265 1,295 1,329 1,353 2.3% -0.1% 2.4%

L . . . . 1,168 1,168 1,173 1,188 1,200 1,215 1,222 0.8% . 0.8%

Belarus H . . . . 264 272 289 305 321 339 356 4.1% . .

B 225 240 255 269 262 259 268 277 287 298 306 1.9% . .

L . . . . 260 240 242 246 251 256 260 -0.5% . .

Belgium/Luxembourg H . . . . 1,172 1,231 1,274 1,314 1,346 1,389 1,417 3.3% . 3.5%

B 1,091 1,089 1,101 1,133 1,169 1,210 1,236 1,262 1,288 1,319 1,337 2.4% 1.2% 2.6%

L . . . . 1,164 1,185 1,188 1,198 1,208 1,221 1,227 1.1% . 1.3%

Bosnia-Herzegovina H . . . . 314 334 351 366 381 399 414 4.8% . .

B 276 268 262 298 313 325 334 344 354 365 374 3.3% . .

L . . . . 311 315 317 321 326 331 335 1.7% . .

Bulgaria H . . . . 763 807 857 900 945 998 1,046 6.3% . 6.7%

B 539 540 551 683 760 788 817 849 879 911 939 4.7% 8.2% 5.2%

L . . . . 756 763 773 789 806 824 836 2.9% . 3.4%

Canary Islands H . . . . 281 297 311 324 337 352 364 3.6% . 3.5%

B 298 275 265 284 280 289 295 302 309 316 321 1.8% -1.6% 1.7%

L . . . . 278 282 281 283 284 286 286 0.1% . 0.1%

Croatia H . . . . 536 569 597 623 648 678 703 4.4% . 4.5%

B 497 495 492 520 534 554 569 586 602 620 634 2.9% 1.5% 3.0%

L . . . . 531 537 540 547 555 564 568 1.3% . 1.3%

Cyprus H . . . . 329 353 379 405 433 466 497 7.3% . 7.3%

B 281 270 277 304 327 342 357 375 393 413 431 5.1% 2.6% 5.2%

L . . . . 325 327 333 342 351 362 370 2.8% . 2.9%

Czech Republic H . . . . 749 802 844 884 919 963 999 5.2% . 5.6%

B 695 679 680 700 746 782 805 830 851 877 896 3.6% 0.2% 4.0%

L . . . . 742 758 764 774 782 793 799 1.9% . 2.2%

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RP1 2014/2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

Denmark H . . . . 627 647 669 688 707 735 753 2.9% . 2.7%

B 625 605 618 619 625 636 649 662 675 692 701 1.8% -0.3% 1.8%

L . . . . 623 622 622 627 631 637 638 0.5% . 0.4%

Estonia H . . . . 195 204 214 225 235 248 260 4.4% . 4.2%

B 178 189 183 191 194 197 203 209 215 222 228 2.5% 2.4% 2.3%

L . . . . 193 189 190 192 195 198 200 0.6% . 0.4%

FYROM H . . . . 159 171 178 186 193 203 211 5.3% . .

B 124 113 113 146 158 166 170 175 180 186 191 3.9% . .

L . . . . 157 161 161 163 166 169 172 2.3% . .

Finland H . . . . 251 260 269 278 287 298 307 3.1% . 3.0%

B 267 252 243 248 250 254 258 262 267 272 276 1.5% -2.5% 1.5%

L . . . . 249 248 246 247 248 250 249 0.1% . 0.0%

France H . . . . 2,996 3,136 3,248 3,352 3,440 3,549 3,630 3.0% . 3.1%

B 2,968 2,923 2,902 2,947 2,986 3,075 3,134 3,194 3,254 3,331 3,382 2.0% -0.2% 2.0%

L . . . . 2,975 3,001 3,001 3,015 3,033 3,063 3,074 0.6% . 0.6%

Georgia H . . . . 127 141 152 163 175 188 200 8.1% . .

B 110 108 110 116 126 136 143 151 160 168 176 6.2% . .

L . . . . 125 130 133 139 144 149 154 4.1% . .

Germany H . . . . 3,080 3,208 3,321 3,423 3,513 3,627 3,710 2.9% . 3.0%

B 3,078 3,018 2,990 3,030 3,070 3,150 3,214 3,275 3,333 3,404 3,449 1.9% -0.5% 1.9%

L . . . . 3,058 3,079 3,087 3,103 3,123 3,150 3,159 0.6% . 0.6%

Greece H . . . . 734 799 829 864 901 945 984 5.5% . 5.8%

B 656 633 623 678 731 780 795 818 843 872 896 4.1% 1.1% 4.5%

L . . . . 726 759 757 768 780 796 806 2.5% . 2.9%

Hungary H . . . . 761 821 866 907 949 1,000 1,043 6.5% . 7.2%

B 617 589 600 670 758 803 828 856 883 913 938 4.9% 2.8% 5.7%

L . . . . 754 781 788 800 814 829 838 3.3% . 4.0%

Iceland H . . . . 157 161 168 175 182 192 200 4.7% . .

B 111 123 131 145 157 158 162 166 171 177 181 3.3% . .

L . . . . 156 154 156 158 160 163 165 1.9% . .

Ireland H . . . . 558 587 612 635 657 680 692 3.7% . 4.1%

B 523 521 522 537 557 579 594 609 624 641 653 2.8% 0.9% 3.0%

L . . . . 555 569 576 584 591 599 605 1.7% . 1.9%

Italy H . . . . 1,696 1,775 1,855 1,931 2,004 2,086 2,155 3.6% . 3.6%

B 1,726 1,685 1,648 1,680 1,689 1,726 1,767 1,812 1,855 1,903 1,938 2.1% -0.9% 2.0%

L . . . . 1,681 1,671 1,672 1,687 1,701 1,717 1,723 0.4% . 0.3%

Latvia H . . . . 246 259 273 285 298 314 327 4.3% . 4.2%

B 235 233 236 243 244 249 255 261 267 274 280 2.1% 1.0% 2.0%

L . . . . 243 238 238 239 241 243 244 0.1% . -0.1%

Lisbon FIR H . . . . 506 533 558 581 602 626 646 4.3% . 4.6%

B 450 438 449 480 504 521 533 546 557 571 580 2.7% 2.2% 3.0%

L . . . . 502 508 508 512 515 519 520 1.1% . 1.4%

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RP1 2014/2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

Lithuania H . . . . 265 281 296 312 327 343 357 4.8% . 4.9%

B 233 236 242 257 264 270 278 287 295 304 310 2.7% 3.3% 2.8%

L . . . . 262 257 258 261 265 268 270 0.7% . 0.6%

Malta H . . . . 104 113 122 132 143 155 167 7.4% . 7.0%

B 81 97 109 102 103 109 114 120 126 133 139 4.6% 8.0% 4.4%

L . . . . 102 104 106 109 112 115 117 2.1% . 1.9%

Moldova H . . . . 45 54 57 61 65 69 72 3.6% . .

B 60 64 74 56 45 52 55 57 60 63 65 2.1% . .

L . . . . 45 49 50 51 53 54 55 -0.3% . .

Morocco H . . . . 362 386 419 453 489 531 574 6.9% . .

B 352 324 334 359 361 374 391 411 431 454 475 4.1% . .

L . . . . 359 362 366 375 384 393 400 1.6% . .

Netherlands H . . . . 1,173 1,212 1,253 1,293 1,327 1,375 1,400 3.0% . 3.1%

B 1,085 1,083 1,109 1,138 1,171 1,198 1,227 1,256 1,282 1,313 1,327 2.2% 1.6% 2.4%

L . . . . 1,167 1,180 1,183 1,195 1,205 1,219 1,226 1.1% . 1.2%

Norway H . . . . 612 637 647 656 665 701 714 2.1% . 1.4%

B 563 587 610 619 610 629 636 643 648 666 673 1.2% 3.2% 0.9%

L . . . . 608 617 614 615 616 618 616 -0.1% . -0.1%

Poland H . . . . 703 751 794 840 883 930 970 4.7% . 4.7%

B 655 684 692 702 700 726 753 783 810 839 863 3.0% 2.3% 2.9%

L . . . . 695 693 700 713 724 735 742 0.8% . 0.6%

Romania H . . . . 636 676 717 754 791 838 877 5.6% . 5.8%

B 487 487 513 598 634 660 684 709 734 762 785 4.0% 7.1% 4.2%

L . . . . 631 638 647 659 672 687 697 2.2% . 2.4%

Santa Maria FIR H . . . . 135 143 148 153 158 164 168 4.4% . 4.9%

B 123 118 121 125 135 141 144 147 150 154 157 3.3% 0.5% 3.8%

L . . . . 134 138 139 140 141 143 144 2.1% . 2.6%

Serbia&Montenegro H . . . . 625 670 703 735 766 803 835 6.0% . .

B 558 535 518 554 622 655 672 694 715 738 757 4.6% . .

L . . . . 619 637 640 650 661 673 681 3.0% . .

Slovakia H . . . . 469 508 537 564 591 625 652 5.9% . 6.3%

B 382 381 397 436 467 495 511 529 546 565 581 4.2% 4.5% 4.6%

L . . . . 465 478 482 490 498 508 514 2.4% . 2.7%

Slovenia H . . . . 356 381 399 415 431 450 465 4.2% . 4.4%

B 353 346 329 348 354 372 381 392 402 414 423 2.8% -0.5% 2.9%

L . . . . 352 361 362 367 372 377 380 1.3% . 1.3%

Spain H . . . . 1,640 1,725 1,809 1,887 1,960 2,040 2,108 4.1% . 4.3%

B 1,665 1,557 1,528 1,587 1,634 1,687 1,733 1,782 1,828 1,881 1,917 2.7% -1.6% 2.9%

L . . . . 1,627 1,642 1,649 1,668 1,686 1,707 1,715 1.1% . 1.2%

Sweden H . . . . 760 792 820 847 871 908 933 3.4% . 3.3%

B 724 724 730 739 757 778 794 812 827 848 860 2.2% 0.7% 2.3%

L . . . . 754 759 760 768 773 779 781 0.8% . 0.9%

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RP1 2014/2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

Switzerland H . . . . 1,053 1,099 1,139 1,177 1,211 1,247 1,277 3.1% . 3.2%

B 1,063 1,045 1,019 1,033 1,049 1,077 1,100 1,125 1,148 1,173 1,190 2.0% -0.9% 2.1%

L . . . . 1,045 1,050 1,053 1,062 1,071 1,080 1,082 0.7% . 0.7%

Turkey H . . . . 1,371 1,481 1,611 1,714 1,820 1,939 2,056 7.1% . .

B 1,039 1,066 1,142 1,269 1,365 1,443 1,525 1,611 1,686 1,769 1,848 5.5% . .

L . . . . 1,357 1,384 1,423 1,474 1,528 1,584 1,625 3.6% . .

Ukraine H . . . . 211 224 241 258 275 293 310 -0.5% . .

B 453 466 494 320 209 214 223 234 245 256 266 -2.6% . .

L . . . . 207 199 202 208 213 219 224 -5.0% . .

UK H . . . . 2,317 2,397 2,476 2,549 2,613 2,714 2,772 2.9% . 2.9%

B 2,241 2,211 2,225 2,269 2,312 2,362 2,406 2,453 2,499 2,558 2,592 1.9% 0.4% 2.0%

L . . . . 2,305 2,322 2,334 2,355 2,375 2,403 2,416 0.9% . 0.9%

ESRA02 H . . . . 9,701 10,089 10,497 10,864 11,209 11,646 11,994 3.4% . .

B 9,641 9,388 9,297 9,495 9,669 9,891 10,118 10,352 10,575 10,855 11,053 2.2% . .

L . . . . 9,630 9,642 9,675 9,759 9,851 9,974 10,031 0.8% . .

EU27 H . . . . 8,954 9,284 9,628 9,953 10,256 10,634 10,930 3.2% . 3.1%

B 9,036 8,766 8,622 8,783 8,924 9,099 9,284 9,478 9,668 9,904 10,064 2.0% -0.9% 1.9%

L . . . . 8,888 8,879 8,891 8,949 9,013 9,107 9,143 0.6% . 0.5%

ESRA08 H . . . . 9,786 10,181 10,592 10,965 11,316 11,759 12,112 3.4% . 3.3%

B 9,784 9,548 9,447 9,604 9,754 9,978 10,208 10,447 10,673 10,957 11,158 2.2% -0.6% 2.1%

L . . . . 9,714 9,724 9,757 9,844 9,937 10,062 10,119 0.7% . 0.7%

Baltic FAB H . . . . 802 841 889 940 987 1,040 1,085 4.7% . 4.6%

B 741 768 776 788 798 812 842 875 905 937 962 2.9% 2.0% 2.8%

L . . . . 793 775 783 797 810 822 830 0.7% . 0.6%

BLUE MED FAB H . . . . 2,371 2,494 2,611 2,727 2,842 2,975 3,091 4.4% . 4.5%

B 2,267 2,212 2,194 2,282 2,362 2,427 2,487 2,560 2,632 2,713 2,777 2.8% 0.2% 2.9%

L . . . . 2,350 2,349 2,353 2,382 2,412 2,446 2,466 1.1% . 1.1%

Danube FAB H . . . . 900 949 1,007 1,058 1,110 1,173 1,227 5.8% . 6.0%

B 758 746 758 829 897 926 960 997 1,031 1,069 1,101 4.1% 3.0% 4.4%

L . . . . 892 898 909 927 946 966 980 2.4% . 2.7%

FAB CE H . . . . 2,034 2,133 2,237 2,334 2,425 2,536 2,629 4.5% . 4.7%

B 1,914 1,865 1,854 1,928 2,026 2,081 2,139 2,200 2,258 2,324 2,375 3.0% 0.2% 3.2%

L . . . . 2,016 2,021 2,032 2,057 2,081 2,111 2,127 1.4% . 1.5%

FABEC H . . . . 5,708 5,900 6,103 6,286 6,444 6,643 6,789 2.9% . 3.0%

B 5,671 5,564 5,499 5,571 5,691 5,796 5,907 6,015 6,121 6,257 6,340 1.9% -0.6% 1.9%

L . . . . 5,669 5,668 5,673 5,700 5,731 5,784 5,801 0.6% . 0.6%

NEFAB H . . . . 1,031 1,064 1,093 1,121 1,148 1,206 1,236 2.6% . 2.2%

B 988 1,001 1,012 1,030 1,027 1,042 1,057 1,073 1,087 1,116 1,129 1.3% 1.4% 1.1%

L . . . . 1,023 1,014 1,010 1,013 1,016 1,021 1,020 -0.1% . -0.3%

South West FAB H . . . . 1,715 1,795 1,882 1,963 2,039 2,123 2,193 4.2% . 4.3%

B 1,823 1,644 1,591 1,650 1,709 1,755 1,802 1,853 1,901 1,955 1,993 2.7% -3.3% 2.9%

L . . . . 1,702 1,709 1,716 1,736 1,753 1,775 1,783 1.1% . 1.2%

Network Manager





RP1 2014/2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

UK-Ireland FAB H . . . . 2,371 2,460 2,542 2,617 2,684 2,787 2,846 3.1% . 3.1%

B 2,272 2,238 2,254 2,299 2,365 2,423 2,470 2,518 2,565 2,627 2,662 2.1% 0.4% 2.2%

L . . . . 2,358 2,382 2,395 2,417 2,437 2,467 2,480 1.1% . 1.2%

DK-SE FAB H . . . . 1,023 1,060 1,095 1,128 1,158 1,206 1,236 3.0% . 2.9%

B 1,008 978 999 1,005 1,020 1,041 1,062 1,084 1,103 1,131 1,146 1.9% -0.1% 1.9%

L . . . . 1,016 1,018 1,018 1,026 1,033 1,041 1,043 0.5% . 0.5%

EU28 H . . . . 8,969 9,299 9,644 9,970 10,274 10,652 10,950 3.2% . 3.2%

B 9,050 8,779 8,634 8,797 8,939 9,114 9,300 9,494 9,685 9,921 10,082 2.0% -0.9% 1.9%

L . . . . 8,903 8,893 8,906 8,964 9,028 9,122 9,158 0.6% . 0.5%

SES-RP2 H . . . . 9,278 9,618 9,962 10,286 10,589 10,979 11,277 3.1% . 3.0%

B 9,344 9,087 8,946 9,114 9,248 9,431 9,616 9,808 9,997 10,239 10,399 1.9% -0.8% 1.9%

L . . . . 9,211 9,205 9,213 9,269 9,331 9,422 9,455 0.5% . 0.5%

Network Manager




Annex 4 Seven-year flight forecast per state (Growth)

This appendix shows the same data as the previous, but presented as growth rather than counts of flights.

Figure 43. Forecast of the IFR Movements growth per State.

IFR Movements (Growth) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 AAGR 2021/ 2014

RP1 2014/2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

Albania H . . . . 5.7% 10% 4.0% 4.0% 3.8% 4.4% 3.5% 5.1% . .

B 8.7% -1.1% 2.8% -1.1% 5.3% 8.2% 2.1% 2.7% 2.7% 3.1% 2.3% 3.8% . .

L . . . . 4.7% 6.1% 0.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1.7% 1.1% 2.3% . .

Armenia H . . . . -9.9% 12% 8.2% 8.0% 7.7% 7.7% 6.9% 5.6% . .

B 8.1% -2.0% -6.6% -3.4% -11% 8.1% 5.7% 6.0% 5.7% 5.6% 5.0% 3.5% . .

L . . . . -11% 1.8% 2.9% 4.2% 3.7% 3.6% 3.0% 1.0% . .

Austria H . . . . 2.2% 4.4% 4.3% 4.0% 3.3% 4.1% 3.1% 3.6% . 3.6%

B 1.5% -1.8% -1.7% 3.4% 1.8% 2.4% 2.4% 2.8% 2.4% 2.6% 1.9% 2.3% -0.1% 2.4%

L . . . . 1.3% 0.0% 0.4% 1.3% 1.0% 1.2% 0.6% 0.8% . 0.8%

Belarus H . . . . -1.8% 3.1% 6.0% 5.6% 5.5% 5.7% 4.9% 4.1% . .

B 15% 6.7% 6.2% 5.6% -2.5% -1.4% 3.4% 3.7% 3.6% 3.6% 2.9% 1.9% . .

L . . . . -3.3% -7.8% 1.0% 1.7% 2.0% 2.0% 1.4% -0.5% . .

Belgium/Luxembourg H . . . . 3.5% 5.0% 3.5% 3.1% 2.4% 3.2% 2.0% 3.3% . 3.5%

B 5.4% -0.2% 1.0% 2.9% 3.2% 3.6% 2.1% 2.1% 2.1% 2.4% 1.4% 2.4% 1.2% 2.6%

L . . . . 2.8% 1.8% 0.3% 0.8% 0.9% 1.1% 0.5% 1.1% . 1.3%

Bosnia-Herzegovina H . . . . 5.3% 6.3% 5.0% 4.4% 4.2% 4.6% 3.8% 4.8% . .

B 10% -2.6% -2.2% 14% 4.8% 4.0% 2.7% 3.0% 2.9% 3.1% 2.4% 3.3% . .

L . . . . 4.2% 1.3% 0.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 1.0% 1.7% . .

Bulgaria H . . . . 12% 5.8% 6.2% 5.1% 5.0% 5.6% 4.7% 6.3% . 6.7%

B 7.1% 0.2% 1.9% 24% 11% 3.7% 3.7% 3.9% 3.5% 3.7% 3.1% 4.7% 8.2% 5.2%

L . . . . 11% 0.9% 1.3% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 1.5% 2.9% . 3.4%

Canary Islands H . . . . -0.9% 5.6% 4.8% 4.4% 4.0% 4.3% 3.5% 3.6% . 3.5%

B 8.2% -7.7% -3.4% 6.9% -1.3% 3.3% 2.2% 2.4% 2.2% 2.4% 1.6% 1.8% -1.6% 1.7%

L . . . . -1.8% 1.2% -0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% -0.0% 0.1% . 0.1%

Croatia H . . . . 3.2% 6.0% 4.9% 4.4% 4.1% 4.6% 3.7% 4.4% . 4.5%

B 8.4% -0.4% -0.6% 5.5% 2.8% 3.7% 2.7% 2.9% 2.8% 3.0% 2.3% 2.9% 1.5% 3.0%

L . . . . 2.2% 1.2% 0.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 0.9% 1.3% . 1.3%

Cyprus H . . . . 8.2% 7.2% 7.5% 6.9% 6.9% 7.4% 6.7% 7.3% . 7.3%

B -1.2% -4.1% 2.8% 9.7% 7.6% 4.3% 4.5% 4.9% 4.8% 5.1% 4.5% 5.1% 2.6% 5.2%

L . . . . 6.9% 0.6% 1.7% 2.7% 2.8% 3.0% 2.3% 2.8% . 2.9%

Czech Republic H . . . . 6.9% 7.1% 5.2% 4.8% 3.9% 4.7% 3.8% 5.2% . 5.6%

B 4.0% -2.3% 0.0% 3.1% 6.5% 4.8% 3.0% 3.1% 2.5% 3.0% 2.2% 3.6% 0.2% 4.0%

L . . . . 5.9% 2.2% 0.8% 1.3% 1.0% 1.4% 0.7% 1.9% . 2.2%

Denmark H . . . . 1.4% 3.1% 3.4% 2.9% 2.7% 4.1% 2.4% 2.9% . 2.7%

B 5.1% -3.2% 2.3% 0.0% 1.1% 1.7% 2.1% 2.0% 1.9% 2.5% 1.3% 1.8% -0.3% 1.8%

L . . . . 0.7% -0.2% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 0.9% 0.2% 0.5% . 0.4%

Network Manager





RP1 2014/2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

Estonia H . . . . 2.1% 4.4% 5.1% 4.7% 4.8% 5.5% 4.5% 4.4% . 4.2%

B 14% 6.1% -3.1% 4.6% 1.6% 1.5% 2.7% 2.8% 3.1% 3.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3%

L . . . . 1.0% -2.1% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 1.6% 1.0% 0.6% . 0.4%

FYROM H . . . . 8.8% 7.3% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.9% 4.0% 5.3% . .

B -0.4% -9.6% 0.1% 30% 8.2% 5.0% 2.2% 2.8% 3.1% 3.5% 2.7% 3.9% . .

L . . . . 7.6% 2.4% -0.0% 1.3% 1.7% 2.0% 1.3% 2.3% . .

Finland H . . . . 1.2% 3.9% 3.3% 3.3% 3.1% 3.9% 2.9% 3.1% . 3.0%

B 11% -5.8% -3.5% 2.0% 0.8% 1.8% 1.4% 1.8% 1.7% 2.1% 1.3% 1.5% -2.5% 1.5%

L . . . . 0.4% -0.4% -0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% -0.1% 0.1% . 0.0%

France H . . . . 1.7% 4.7% 3.6% 3.2% 2.6% 3.1% 2.3% 3.0% . 3.1%

B 6.2% -1.5% -0.7% 1.6% 1.3% 3.0% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.4% 1.5% 2.0% -0.2% 2.0%

L . . . . 0.9% 0.9% -0.0% 0.5% 0.6% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% . 0.6%

Georgia H . . . . 9.4% 11% 8.1% 7.2% 7.1% 7.5% 6.6% 8.1% . .

B 16% -1.7% 2.1% 5.2% 8.7% 7.9% 5.4% 5.7% 5.4% 5.4% 4.8% 6.2% . .

L . . . . 7.8% 3.8% 2.9% 3.9% 3.7% 3.7% 3.0% 4.1% . .

Germany H . . . . 1.6% 4.1% 3.5% 3.1% 2.6% 3.2% 2.3% 2.9% . 3.0%

B 3.2% -1.9% -0.9% 1.3% 1.3% 2.6% 2.0% 1.9% 1.8% 2.1% 1.3% 1.9% -0.5% 1.9%

L . . . . 0.9% 0.7% 0.2% 0.5% 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% . 0.6%

Greece H . . . . 8.2% 8.9% 3.8% 4.2% 4.2% 4.9% 4.2% 5.5% . 5.8%

B 0.2% -3.5% -1.6% 8.8% 7.8% 6.8% 1.9% 2.9% 3.0% 3.4% 2.8% 4.1% 1.1% 4.5%

L . . . . 7.2% 4.5% -0.2% 1.4% 1.6% 2.0% 1.3% 2.5% . 2.9%

Hungary H . . . . 14% 7.9% 5.5% 4.7% 4.5% 5.4% 4.3% 6.5% . 7.2%

B -0.8% -4.4% 1.9% 12% 13% 5.9% 3.2% 3.3% 3.1% 3.4% 2.7% 4.9% 2.8% 5.7%

L . . . . 13% 3.5% 0.9% 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 1.2% 3.3% . 4.0%

Iceland H . . . . 8.3% 2.3% 4.4% 4.1% 4.3% 5.2% 4.1% 4.7% . .

B 9.0% 11% 6.8% 11% 8.0% 0.7% 2.8% 2.7% 2.9% 3.3% 2.6% 3.3% . .

L . . . . 7.6% -1.3% 1.1% 1.4% 1.6% 1.7% 1.2% 1.9% . .

Ireland H . . . . 4.0% 5.2% 4.1% 3.8% 3.4% 3.6% 1.7% 3.7% . 4.1%

B 1.9% -0.4% 0.3% 2.8% 3.8% 3.9% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 2.7% 1.9% 2.8% 0.9% 3.0%

L . . . . 3.5% 2.5% 1.2% 1.3% 1.2% 1.5% 0.9% 1.7% . 1.9%

Italy H . . . . 1.0% 4.6% 4.5% 4.1% 3.8% 4.1% 3.3% 3.6% . 3.6%

B 0.8% -2.3% -2.2% 1.9% 0.6% 2.2% 2.3% 2.6% 2.4% 2.6% 1.9% 2.1% -0.9% 2.0%

L . . . . 0.1% -0.6% 0.1% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 0.3% 0.4% . 0.3%

Latvia H . . . . 1.3% 5.4% 5.2% 4.6% 4.6% 5.1% 4.1% 4.3% . 4.2%

B 9.8% -1.0% 1.3% 2.8% 0.7% 2.0% 2.3% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 1.9% 2.1% 1.0% 2.0%

L . . . . 0.1% -2.0% -0.0% 0.4% 0.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% . -0.1%

Lisbon FIR H . . . . 5.5% 5.3% 4.6% 4.1% 3.7% 4.0% 3.1% 4.3% . 4.6%

B 4.8% -2.7% 2.6% 6.8% 5.1% 3.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.2% 2.5% 1.6% 2.7% 2.2% 3.0%

L . . . . 4.6% 1.2% -0.0% 0.7% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 1.1% . 1.4%

Lithuania H . . . . 3.1% 6.0% 5.5% 5.2% 4.7% 4.9% 4.0% 4.8% . 4.9%

B 13% 1.0% 2.8% 6.1% 2.5% 2.5% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 2.9% 2.2% 2.7% 3.3% 2.8%

L . . . . 1.8% -1.9% 0.6% 1.2% 1.4% 1.3% 0.7% 0.7% . 0.6%

Network Manager





RP1 2014/2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

Malta H . . . . 1.7% 9.0% 8.5% 8.0% 8.0% 8.5% 8.0% 7.4% . 7.0%

B -15% 20% 13% -6.8% 1.1% 5.6% 4.8% 5.2% 5.2% 5.4% 4.7% 4.6% 8.0% 4.4%

L . . . . 0.4% 1.9% 1.7% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 2.2% 2.1% . 1.9%

Moldova H . . . . -20% 18% 7.1% 6.6% 6.6% 6.7% 3.8% 3.6% . .

B 11% 5.7% 16% -24% -20% 15% 5.2% 5.0% 4.4% 4.5% 3.9% 2.1% . .

L . . . . -20% 10% 1.1% 2.5% 2.7% 2.7% 2.1% -0.3% . .

Morocco H . . . . 0.8% 6.6% 8.4% 8.1% 8.0% 8.6% 8.1% 6.9% . .

B 3.9% -8.1% 3.3% 7.6% 0.3% 3.7% 4.7% 5.0% 4.9% 5.2% 4.5% 4.1% . .

L . . . . -0.2% 0.8% 1.3% 2.4% 2.3% 2.5% 1.9% 1.6% . .

Netherlands H . . . . 3.1% 3.3% 3.4% 3.2% 2.6% 3.6% 1.8% 3.0% . 3.1%

B 7.2% -0.2% 2.4% 2.6% 2.9% 2.4% 2.4% 2.4% 2.0% 2.4% 1.1% 2.2% 1.6% 2.4%

L . . . . 2.6% 1.2% 0.3% 1.0% 0.9% 1.2% 0.5% 1.1% . 1.2%

Norway H . . . . -1.2% 4.2% 1.6% 1.3% 1.3% 5.5% 1.8% 2.1% . 1.4%

B 4.9% 4.2% 4.0% 1.4% -1.4% 3.0% 1.2% 1.0% 0.8% 2.9% 1.0% 1.2% 3.2% 0.9%

L . . . . -1.7% 1.4% -0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% -0.3% -0.1% . -0.1%

Poland H . . . . 0.3% 6.8% 5.7% 5.7% 5.1% 5.4% 4.3% 4.7% . 4.7%

B 9.4% 4.6% 1.1% 1.4% -0.2% 3.7% 3.7% 4.0% 3.5% 3.6% 2.8% 3.0% 2.3% 2.9%

L . . . . -0.9% -0.3% 1.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.6% 0.9% 0.8% . 0.6%

Romania H . . . . 6.4% 6.2% 6.1% 5.1% 5.0% 5.8% 4.7% 5.6% . 5.8%

B 3.8% -0.0% 5.3% 17% 6.0% 4.0% 3.7% 3.7% 3.5% 3.8% 3.1% 4.0% 7.1% 4.2%

L . . . . 5.5% 1.2% 1.3% 1.9% 2.0% 2.2% 1.5% 2.2% . 2.4%

Santa Maria FIR H . . . . 8.3% 5.8% 3.5% 3.5% 3.3% 3.7% 2.8% 4.4% . 4.9%

B 4.3% -3.9% 2.7% 2.7% 8.0% 4.5% 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 2.5% 1.7% 3.3% 0.5% 3.8%

L . . . . 7.6% 2.9% 0.5% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 0.6% 2.1% . 2.6%

Serbia&Montenegro H . . . . 13% 7.3% 4.9% 4.5% 4.2% 4.8% 4.0% 6.0% . .

B 2.7% -4.1% -3.1% 6.9% 12% 5.2% 2.7% 3.2% 3.0% 3.3% 2.5% 4.6% . .

L . . . . 12% 2.8% 0.5% 1.7% 1.7% 1.8% 1.1% 3.0% . .

Slovakia H . . . . 7.6% 8.3% 5.7% 5.0% 4.8% 5.6% 4.5% 5.9% . 6.3%

B 3.1% -0.3% 4.4% 9.8% 7.1% 5.8% 3.4% 3.5% 3.2% 3.5% 2.8% 4.2% 4.5% 4.6%

L . . . . 6.5% 2.7% 0.9% 1.6% 1.7% 1.9% 1.2% 2.4% . 2.7%

Slovenia H . . . . 2.2% 7.3% 4.5% 4.1% 3.8% 4.4% 3.4% 4.2% . 4.4%

B 7.5% -2.0% -4.8% 5.8% 1.7% 5.0% 2.5% 2.8% 2.6% 2.9% 2.2% 2.8% -0.5% 2.9%

L . . . . 1.2% 2.4% 0.4% 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% 0.8% 1.3% . 1.3%

Spain H . . . . 3.3% 5.2% 4.8% 4.3% 3.9% 4.1% 3.3% 4.1% . 4.3%

B 3.6% -6.5% -1.9% 3.9% 2.9% 3.2% 2.7% 2.8% 2.6% 2.9% 1.9% 2.7% -1.6% 2.9%

L . . . . 2.5% 0.9% 0.5% 1.2% 1.0% 1.3% 0.5% 1.1% . 1.2%

Sweden H . . . . 2.8% 4.3% 3.5% 3.3% 2.8% 4.3% 2.7% 3.4% . 3.3%

B 9.1% -0.1% 0.9% 1.2% 2.5% 2.7% 2.1% 2.3% 1.8% 2.5% 1.5% 2.2% 0.7% 2.3%

L . . . . 2.1% 0.6% 0.2% 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.8% . 0.9%

Switzerland H . . . . 1.9% 4.4% 3.6% 3.3% 2.9% 3.0% 2.4% 3.1% . 3.2%

B 3.6% -1.7% -2.4% 1.4% 1.6% 2.6% 2.1% 2.3% 2.1% 2.2% 1.4% 2.0% -0.9% 2.1%

L . . . . 1.2% 0.4% 0.3% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.3% 0.7% . 0.7%

Network Manager





RP1 2014/2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

Turkey H . . . . 8.0% 8.0% 8.8% 6.4% 6.2% 6.6% 6.0% 7.1% . .

B 7.6% 2.6% 7.1% 11% 7.6% 5.7% 5.7% 5.6% 4.6% 5.0% 4.4% 5.5% . .

L . . . . 6.9% 2.0% 2.9% 3.6% 3.7% 3.7% 2.6% 3.6% . .

Ukraine H . . . . -34% 6.5% 7.7% 6.8% 6.5% 6.7% 5.7% -0.5% . .

B 5.5% 2.9% 6.0% -35% -35% 2.1% 4.6% 4.9% 4.5% 4.6% 3.9% -2.6% . .

L . . . . -35% -3.9% 1.4% 2.8% 2.7% 2.7% 2.1% -5.0% . .

UK H . . . . 2.1% 3.4% 3.3% 3.0% 2.5% 3.9% 2.1% 2.9% . 2.9%

B 2.8% -1.4% 0.6% 2.0% 1.9% 2.2% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.4% 1.3% 1.9% 0.4% 2.0%

L . . . . 1.6% 0.7% 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 1.2% 0.6% 0.9% . 0.9%

ESRA02 H . . . . 2.2% 4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.2% 3.9% 3.0% 3.4% . .

B 2.9% -2.6% -1.0% 2.1% 1.8% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% 2.7% 1.8% 2.2% . .

L . . . . 1.4% 0.1% 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.8% . .

EU27 H . . . . 1.9% 3.7% 3.7% 3.4% 3.0% 3.7% 2.8% 3.2% . 3.1%

B 2.6% -3.0% -1.6% 1.9% 1.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 2.4% 1.6% 2.0% -0.9% 1.9%

L . . . . 1.2% -0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% . 0.5%

ESRA08 H . . . . 1.9% 4.0% 4.0% 3.5% 3.2% 3.9% 3.0% 3.4% . 3.3%

B 3.1% -2.4% -1.1% 1.7% 1.6% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.7% 1.8% 2.2% -0.6% 2.1%

L . . . . 1.1% 0.1% 0.3% 0.9% 0.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.7% . 0.7%

Baltic FAB H . . . . 1.8% 4.9% 5.7% 5.7% 5.1% 5.4% 4.3% 4.7% . 4.6%

B 9.2% 3.6% 1.0% 1.5% 1.3% 1.8% 3.6% 3.9% 3.5% 3.5% 2.8% 2.9% 2.0% 2.8%

L . . . . 0.6% -2.2% 1.0% 1.8% 1.6% 1.5% 0.9% 0.7% . 0.6%

BLUE MED FAB H . . . . 3.9% 5.2% 4.7% 4.4% 4.2% 4.6% 3.9% 4.4% . 4.5%

B -0.1% -2.4% -0.8% 4.0% 3.5% 2.8% 2.5% 2.9% 2.8% 3.1% 2.4% 2.8% 0.2% 2.9%

L . . . . 3.0% -0.0% 0.2% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 0.8% 1.1% . 1.1%

Danube FAB H . . . . 8.6% 5.4% 6.2% 5.1% 4.9% 5.6% 4.6% 5.8% . 6.0%

B 3.3% -1.5% 1.5% 9.5% 8.1% 3.3% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 3.7% 3.0% 4.1% 3.0% 4.4%

L . . . . 7.6% 0.6% 1.3% 2.0% 2.0% 2.2% 1.4% 2.4% . 2.7%

FAB CE H . . . . 5.5% 4.9% 4.9% 4.4% 3.9% 4.6% 3.7% 4.5% . 4.7%

B 2.7% -2.6% -0.6% 4.0% 5.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.6% 2.9% 2.2% 3.0% 0.2% 3.2%

L . . . . 4.5% 0.2% 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 0.8% 1.4% . 1.5%

FABEC H . . . . 2.5% 3.4% 3.4% 3.0% 2.5% 3.1% 2.2% 2.9% . 3.0%

B 4.4% -1.9% -1.2% 1.3% 2.1% 1.8% 1.9% 1.8% 1.8% 2.2% 1.3% 1.9% -0.6% 1.9%

L . . . . 1.8% -0.0% 0.1% 0.5% 0.6% 0.9% 0.3% 0.6% . 0.6%

NEFAB H . . . . 0.1% 3.2% 2.8% 2.5% 2.4% 5.0% 2.6% 2.6% . 2.2%

B 7.0% 1.3% 1.1% 1.8% -0.3% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 1.3% 2.6% 1.2% 1.3% 1.4% 1.1%

L . . . . -0.7% -0.8% -0.4% 0.3% 0.3% 0.5% -0.1% -0.1% . -0.3%

South West FAB H . . . . 4.0% 4.7% 4.8% 4.3% 3.9% 4.1% 3.3% 4.2% . 4.3%

B 3.3% -9.8% -3.3% 3.7% 3.6% 2.7% 2.7% 2.8% 2.6% 2.9% 1.9% 2.7% -3.3% 2.9%

L . . . . 3.1% 0.4% 0.4% 1.1% 1.0% 1.2% 0.5% 1.1% . 1.2%

UK-Ireland FAB H . . . . 3.1% 3.7% 3.3% 3.0% 2.5% 3.8% 2.1% 3.1% . 3.1%

B 2.5% -1.5% 0.7% 2.0% 2.9% 2.5% 1.9% 1.9% 1.9% 2.4% 1.3% 2.1% 0.4% 2.2%

L . . . . 2.6% 1.0% 0.6% 0.9% 0.8% 1.2% 0.6% 1.1% . 1.2%

Network Manager





RP1 2014/2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/2014

AAGR

DK-SE FAB H . . . . 1.8% 3.5% 3.3% 3.0% 2.6% 4.1% 2.5% 3.0% . 2.9%

B 5.7% -3.0% 2.2% 0.6% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 1.8% 2.5% 1.4% 1.9% -0.1% 1.9%

L . . . . 1.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.8% 0.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.5% . 0.5%

EU28 H . . . . 1.9% 3.7% 3.7% 3.4% 3.0% 3.7% 2.8% 3.2% . 3.2%

B 2.6% -3.0% -1.7% 1.9% 1.6% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 2.0% 2.4% 1.6% 2.0% -0.9% 1.9%

L . . . . 1.2% -0.1% 0.1% 0.7% 0.7% 1.0% 0.4% 0.6% . 0.5%

SES-RP2 H . . . . 1.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 2.7% 3.1% . 3.0%

B 2.7% -2.7% -1.6% 1.9% 1.5% 2.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 2.4% 1.6% 1.9% -0.8% 1.9%

L . . . . 1.1% -0.1% 0.1% 0.6% 0.7% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% . 0.5%

Network Manager




Annex 5 Two-year en-route service unit forecast per state

Figure 44. Forecast Summary: Annual total en-route service units 2015-2016.

Charging Area 2014 Actual

TSU

2015 STATFOR

Forecast TSU

2015/2014 Forecast

Growth

2016 STATFOR

Forecast TSU

2016/2015 Forecast

Growth 2015 States

Forecast TSU

2015 STATFOR/

States

EB Belgium/Luxembourg 2,362,038 2,457,249 4.0% 2,547,929 3.7% 2,370,804 3.6%

ED Germany A 12,880,783 12,879,842 -0.0% 13,217,271 2.6% 12,568,000 2.5%

LF France 18,496,754 18,808,538 1.7% 19,528,617 3.8% 18,487,000 1.7%

EG UK 9,979,403 10,114,539 1.4% 10,337,332 2.2% 10,244,000 -1.3%

EH Netherlands 2,767,312 2,872,399 3.8% 2,976,228 3.6% 2,806,192 2.4%

EI Ireland 3,922,499 4,062,911 3.6% 4,238,843 4.3% 4,000,000 1.6%

LS Switzerland 1,427,068 1,459,486 2.3% 1,501,234 2.9% 1,418,755 2.9%

LP Lisbon FIR 3,019,611 3,142,269 4.1% 3,256,511 3.6% 3,095,250 1.5%

LO Austria 2,645,392 2,752,533 4.1% 2,812,217 2.2% 2,693,000 2.2%

LE Spain 8,767,769 8,940,897 2.0% 9,236,957 3.3% 8,880,000 0.7%

GC Canary Islands 1,491,781 1,405,857 -5.8% 1,451,171 3.2% 1,531,000 -8.2%

AZ Santa Maria FIR 4,166,099 4,629,553 11.1% 4,829,645 4.3% 4,265,957 8.5%

LG Greece 4,617,799 5,039,682 9.1% 5,357,960 6.3% 4,231,888 19.1%

LT Turkey 12,808,849 14,306,044 11.7% 15,172,312 6.1% 13,065,897 9.5%

LM Malta 727,375 799,033 9.9% 839,618 5.1% 609,000 31.2%

LI Italy 8,313,546 8,082,275 -2.8% 8,223,998 1.8% 9,014,000 -10.3%

LC Cyprus 1,454,224 1,593,849 9.6% 1,663,022 4.3% 1,395,081 14.2%

LH Hungary 2,406,153 2,757,238 14.6% 2,904,143 5.3% 2,457,201 12.2%

EN Norway 2,220,734 2,351,230 5.9% 2,455,352 4.4% 2,287,878 2.8%

EK Denmark 1,532,003 1,583,489 3.4% 1,616,586 2.1% 1,553,000 2.0%

LJ Slovenia 459,206 471,639 2.7% 498,197 5.6% 481,500 -2.0%

LR Romania 4,181,845 4,586,348 9.7% 4,751,677 3.6% 4,012,887 14.3%

LK Czech Republic 2,393,408 2,514,167 5.0% 2,620,286 4.2% 2,548,000 -1.3%

ES Sweden 3,284,841 3,380,755 2.9% 3,461,807 2.4% 3,257,000 3.8%

LZ Slovakia 1,044,343 1,070,771 2.5% 1,132,647 5.8% 1,114,110 -3.9%

LD Croatia 1,760,424 1,781,941 1.2% 1,825,859 2.5% 1,763,000 1.1%

LB Bulgaria 2,743,606 3,195,257 16.5% 3,315,962 3.8% 2,627,000 21.6%

LW FYROM 246,466 277,495 12.6% 292,992 5.6% 249,000 11.4%

LU Moldova 131,067 77,543 -40.8% 91,822 18.4% 130,000 -40.4%

EF Finland 795,764 797,018 0.2% 817,180 2.5% 792,600 0.6%

LA Albania 468,799 498,915 6.4% 540,638 8.4% 487,926 2.3%

LQ Bosnia-Herzegovina 782,870 872,262 11.4% 917,937 5.2% 857,608 1.7%

UD Armenia 142,478 134,337 -5.7% 147,317 9.7% 156,000 -13.9%

LY Serbia-Montenegro-KFOR B 1,751,706 2,021,110 15.4% 2,135,510 5.7% 1,767,274 14.4%

EP Poland 3,930,688 3,845,503 -2.2% 3,975,631 3.4% 4,362,840 -11.9%

EY Lithuania 487,217 499,121 2.4% 516,643 3.5% 490,928 1.7%

EE Estonia 789,855 819,710 3.8% 844,592 3.0% 801,215 2.3%

EV Latvia C 766,861 804,180 4.9% 820,422 2.0% 802,000 0.3%

UK Ukraine D 2,771,498 1,259,532 -54.6% 1,314,643 4.4% 1,100,000 14.5%

UG Georgia 751,536 855,273 13.8% 917,286 7.3% 716,513 19.4%

Charging Area 2014 Actual

TSU

2015STATFOR Forecast

TSU

2015/2014 Forecast

Growth

2016 STATFOR Forecast

TSU

2016/2015 Forecast

Growth 2015 States

Forecast TSU

2015 STATFOR

/States

CRCO88 71,926,509 73,526,075 2.2% 75,933,954 3.3% 72,359,958 1.6%

ESRA02 123,048,160 128,191,849 4.2% 132,975,374 3.7% 123,948,999 3.4%

CRCO11 131,378,779 136,867,277 4.2% 142,029,473 3.8% 132,873,575 3.0%

CRCO14 132,130,315 137,722,550 4.2% 142,946,759 3.8% 133,590,088 3.1%

RP1 Region A 109,909,877 113,087,787 2.9% 116,920,033 3.4% 110,932,128 1.9%

RP2 Region A 111,670,300 114,869,728 2.9% 118,745,892 3.4% 112,695,128 1.9%

Total 135,691,668 139,801,791 3.0% 145,105,994 3.8% 135,491,303 3.2% (A)

For Germany, hence for RP1 and RP2, series includes service units for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic. 74,675 service units concerned for 2014. Estimated number for the coming years is 75.000 per year.

(B) The charging zone over Serbia and Montenegro has been renamed Serbia-Montenegro-KFOR (following the change in the naming convention, see Final

minutes of the 103rd

session of the Enlarged Committee dated 19-20.11.2014). (C)

Latvia has only joined EUROCONTROL member states in 2011. Before that date, only yearly data was available for the TSU (D)

Ukraine is not part of the CRCO but has asked STATFOR to produce an individual forecast for them as they did not have this capacity in 2012. In the TOTAL column the 2015 states forecast and the percentage difference between, the 2015 States and STATFOR forecast does not account for Ukraine

Network Manager




Figure 45. Forecast Summary: Annual chargeable en-route service units 2015-2016.

Charging Area 2014

Actual TSU

2015 STATFOR

Forecast TSU

2016 STATFOR

Forecast TSU

2014 Actual

Exempted SU in %

2014 Actual Chargeable

SU in %

2015 Chargeable

SU Estimate

2016 Chargeable

SU Estimate

EB Belgium/Luxembourg 2,362,038 2,457,249 2,547,929 1.0% 99.0% 2,433,300 2,523,100 ED Germany

A 12,880,783 12,879,842 13,217,271 1.0% 99.0% 12,746,400 13,080,300

LF France 18,496,754 18,808,538888

19,528,617 0.9% 99.1% 18,635,700 19,349,200 EG UK 9,979,403 10,114,539 10,337,332 1.4% 98.6% 9,970,600 10,190,200 EH Netherlands 2,767,312 2,872,399 2,976,228 1.3% 98.7% 2,835,100 2,937,600 EI Ireland 3,922,499 4,062,911 4,238,843 1.3% 98.7% 4,011,300 4,185,000 LS Switzerland 1,427,068 1,459,486 1,501,234 0.3% 99.7% 1,455,400 1,497,000 LP Lisbon FIR 3,019,611 3,142,269 3,256,511 1.1% 98.9% 3,107,000 3,219,900 LO Austria 2,645,392 2,752,533 2,812,217 0.4% 99.6% 2,742,100 2,801,500

LE Spain 8,767,769 8,940,897 9,236,957 1.0% 99.0% 8,854,800 9,148,000 GC Canary Islands 1,491,781 1,405,857 1,451,171 0.9% 99.1% 1,393,200 1,438,100 AZ Santa Maria FIR 4,166,099 4,629,553 4,829,645 2.3% 97.7% 4,523,700 4,719,300 LG Greece 4,617,799 5,039,682 5,357,960 2.2% 97.8% 4,926,500 5,237,600 LT Turkey 12,808,849 14,306,044 15,172,312 1.1% 98.9% 14,155,200 15,012,300 LM Malta 727,375 799,033 839,618 3.5% 96.5% 770,800 809,900 LI Italy 8,313,546 8,082,275 8,223,998 1.8% 98.2% 7,940,800 8,080,000 LC Cyprus 1,454,224 1,593,849 1,663,022 1.5% 98.5% 1,570,500 1,638,700 LH Hungary 2,406,153 2,757,238 2,904,143 1.5% 98.5% 2,714,600 2,859,200 EN Norway 2,220,734 2,351,230 2,455,352 1.0% 99.0% 2,327,400 2,430,400 EK Denmark 1,532,003 1,583,489 1,616,586 0.7% 99.3% 1,572,300 1,605,200 LJ Slovenia 459,206 471,639 498,197 0.4% 99.6% 469,700 496,100 LR Romania 4,181,845 4,586,348 4,751,677 1.5% 98.5% 4,519,800 4,682,700 LK Czech Republic 2,393,408 2,514,167 2,620,286 2.2% 97.8% 2,458,000 2,561,800 ES Sweden 3,284,841 3,380,755 3,461,807 0.4% 99.6% 3,366,100 3,446,800 LZ Slovakia 1,044,343 1,070,771 1,132,647 1.6% 98.4% 1,053,300 1,114,200 LD Croatia 1,760,424 1,781,941 1,825,859 0.2% 99.8% 1,778,000 1,821,800 LB Bulgaria 2,743,606 3,195,257 3,315,962 1.3% 98.7% 3,152,300 3,271,400 LW FYROM 246,466 277,495 292,992 0.0% 100.0% 277,400 292,800 LU Moldova 131,067 77,543 91,822 0.1% 99.9% 77,500 91,700 EF Finland 795,764 797,018 817,180 0.7% 99.3% 791,100 811,100 LA Albania 468,799 498,915 540,638 0.6% 99.4% 495,800 537,200 LQ Bosnia-Herzegovina 782,870 872,262 917,937 0.1% 99.9% 871,700 917,300 UD Armenia 142,478 134,337 147,317 0.1% 99.9% 134,200 147,200 LY Serbia-Montenegro-

KFOR B 1,751,706 2,021,110 2,135,510 0.1% 99.9% 2,019,300 2,133,600

EP Poland 3,930,688 3,845,503 3,975,631 0.5% 99.5% 3,824,600 3,954,000 EY Lithuania 487,217 499,121 516,643 0.7% 99.3% 495,800 513,200 EE Estonia 789,855 819,710 844,592 0.0% 100.0% 819,600 844,500 EV Latvia 766,861 804,180 820,422 0.7% 99.3% 798,200 814,300 UK Ukraine 2,771,498 1,259,532 1,314,643 0.3% 99.7% 1,255,900 1,310,900 UG Georgia 751,536 855,273 917,286 5.1% 94.9% 811,300 870,200

CRCO88 71,926,509 73,526,075 75,933,954 1.1% 98.9% 72,713,100 75,094,400

ESRA02 123,048,160 128,191,849 132,975,374 1.2% 98.8% 126,638,100 131,363,600

CRCO11 131,378,779 136,867,277 142,029,473 1.2% 98.8% 135,276,500 140,378,700

CRCO14 132,130,315 137,722,550 142,946,759 1.2% 98.8% 136,090,700 141,253,000

RP1 Region A 109,909,877 113,087,787 116,920,033 1.2% 98.8% 111,763,000 115,550,400

RP2 Region A 111,670,300 114,869,728 118,745,892 1.2% 98.8% 113,541,300 117,372,600

Total 135,691,668 139,801,791 145,105,994 1.2% 98.8% 138,180,500 143,423,200 (A)

For Germany, hence for RP1 and RP2, series includes service units for flight segments performed as Operational Air Traffic. 74,675 service units concerned for 2014. Estimated number for the coming years is 75.000 per year.

(B) The charging zone over Serbia and Montenegro has been renamed Serbia-Montenegro-KFOR (following the change in the naming

convention, see Final minutes of the 103rd session of the Enlarged Committee dated 19-20.11.2014).

Network Manager




Annex 6 Seven-year en-route service units forecast per state

Figure 46. Forecast of the total number of en-route service units (thousands) per State.

Total en-route Service Units (Thousands)

Total service units (thousands)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

2021/ 2014 Total

Growth

RP1 2014/

2011 AAGR

RP2 2019/

2014 AAGR

Albania H . . . . 502 554 575 597 620 647 669 43% . .

B 448 443 456 469 499 541 552 567 582 600 614 31% . .

L . . . . 496 527 527 535 543 552 558 19% . .

Armenia H . . . . 138 159 170 182 196 211 225 58% . .

B 170 154 149 142 134 147 154 163 172 181 190 34% . .

L . . . . 131 135 137 142 148 153 158 11% . .

Austria H . . . . 2,767 2,878 3,009 3,134 3,244 3,376 3,482 32% . 4.2%

B 2,519 2,469 2,456 2,645 2,753 2,812 2,887 2,970 3,042 3,123 3,183 20% 1.6% 2.8%

L . . . . 2,737 2,741 2,757 2,796 2,827 2,863 2,880 9% . 1.3%

Belgium

/Luxembourg

H . . . . 2,466 2,588 2,688 2,781 2,858 2,958 3,029 28% . 3.9%

B 2,212 2,232 2,277 2,362 2,457 2,548 2,611 2,674 2,739 2,815 2,863 21% 2.2% 3.0%

L . . . . 2,448 2,503 2,519 2,548 2,579 2,616 2,639 12% . 1.8%

Bosnia-

Herzegovina

H . . . . 880 957 1,004 1,048 1,092 1,142 1,186 51% . .

B 717 680 654 783 872 918 944 972 1,000 1,031 1,056 35% . .

L . . . . 864 877 884 897 910 926 935 19% . .

Bulgaria H . . . . 3,210 3,388 3,594 3,772 3,953 4,170 4,361 59% . 7.6%

B 2,019 2,020 2,058 2,744 3,195 3,316 3,439 3,569 3,691 3,828 3,943 44% 10.8% 6.1%

L . . . . 3,179 3,230 3,275 3,343 3,415 3,491 3,542 29% . 4.5%

Canary Islands H . . . . 1,414 1,493 1,564 1,632 1,697 1,770 1,831 23% . 2.6%

B 1,666 1,599 1,516 1,492 1,406 1,451 1,484 1,520 1,553 1,590 1,615 8% -3.6% 0.8%

L . . . . 1,397 1,410 1,410 1,420 1,428 1,436 1,436 -4% . -0.9%

Croatia H . . . . 1,792 1,878 1,966 2,050 2,132 2,229 2,310 31% . 3.9%

B 1,634 1,679 1,695 1,760 1,782 1,826 1,872 1,927 1,980 2,041 2,088 19% 2.5% 2.4%

L . . . . 1,772 1,771 1,778 1,803 1,828 1,858 1,875 7% . 0.8%

Cyprus H . . . . 1,600 1,702 1,835 1,960 2,096 2,249 2,399 65% . 7.6%

B 1,347 1,303 1,327 1,454 1,594 1,663 1,745 1,831 1,921 2,019 2,109 45% 2.6% 5.7%

L . . . . 1,587 1,616 1,653 1,698 1,748 1,801 1,845 27% . 3.8%

Czech Republic H . . . . 2,527 2,685 2,816 2,948 3,053 3,187 3,297 38% . 5.0%

B 2,305 2,305 2,374 2,393 2,514 2,620 2,697 2,780 2,846 2,928 2,988 25% 1.3% 3.5%

L . . . . 2,501 2,549 2,569 2,605 2,631 2,667 2,686 12% . 1.9%

Denmark H . . . . 1,590 1,642 1,705 1,762 1,817 1,900 1,954 28% . 3.5%

B 1,470 1,429 1,524 1,532 1,583 1,617 1,658 1,697 1,737 1,789 1,820 19% 1.4% 2.5%

L . . . . 1,577 1,587 1,597 1,615 1,634 1,656 1,668 9% . 1.3%

Network Manager






2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

2021/ 2014 Total

Growth

RP1 2014/

2011 AAGR

RP2 2019/

2014 AAGR

Estonia H . . . . 824 866 908 950 995 1,049 1,096 39% . 4.7%

B 704 725 741 790 820 845 866 890 917 947 971 23% 3.9% 3.0%

L . . . . 816 820 824 832 844 858 867 10% . 1.3%

FYROM H . . . . 279 300 312 325 339 355 369 50% . .

B 194 174 178 246 277 293 300 308 318 329 337 37% . .

L . . . . 276 286 287 290 295 301 305 24% . .

Finland H . . . . 802 834 858 889 917 955 984 24% . 2.9%

B 832 790 770 796 797 817 827 846 861 883 896 13% -1.5% 1.6%

L . . . . 792 800 796 804 808 816 818 3% . 0.3%

France H . . . . 18,857 19,820 20,649 21,404 22,063 22,854 23,457 27% . 3.6%

B 17,691 17,515 17,900 18,497 18,809 19,529 20,011 20,489 20,951 21,504 21,876 18% 1.5% 2.5%

L . . . . 18,756 19,202 19,301 19,486 19,664 19,903 20,013 8% . 1.2%

Georgia H . . . . 864 958 1,043 1,115 1,197 1,285 1,371 82% . .

B 728 709 747 752 855 917 976 1,029 1,086 1,144 1,200 60% . .

L . . . . 846 871 906 939 977 1,012 1,043 39% . .

Germany 11 H . . . . 12,912 13,406 13,924 14,394 14,810 15,338 15,723 22% . 2.8%

B 12,740 12,513 12,570 12,881 12,880 13,217 13,529 13,829 14,113 14,452 14,674 14% 0.4% 1.8%

L . . . . 12,845 13,002 13,071 13,183 13,298 13,447 13,512 5% . 0.6%

Greece H . . . . 5,071 5,516 5,780 6,067 6,359 6,703 7,015 52% . 6.6%

B 4,546 4,358 4,216 4,618 5,040 5,358 5,502 5,693 5,887 6,109 6,296 36% 0.5% 5.0%

L . . . . 5,007 5,191 5,215 5,309 5,407 5,523 5,606 21% . 3.2%

Hungary H . . . . 2,775 2,991 3,170 3,332 3,494 3,691 3,857 60% . 7.7%

B 2,067 2,023 2,101 2,406 2,757 2,904 3,013 3,125 3,232 3,351 3,449 43% 5.2% 6.1%

L . . . . 2,739 2,811 2,852 2,910 2,969 3,033 3,075 28% . 4.3%

Ireland H . . . . 4,086 4,331 4,486 4,655 4,807 4,977 5,062 29% . 4.1%

B 3,771 3,806 3,813 3,922 4,063 4,239 4,332 4,442 4,543 4,666 4,753 21% 1.3% 3.0%

L . . . . 4,040 4,144 4,179 4,238 4,285 4,348 4,386 12% . 1.8%

Italy H . . . . 8,125 8,445 8,828 9,203 9,560 9,961 10,300 24% . 2.8%

B 8,370 8,139 8,117 8,314 8,082 8,224 8,423 8,656 8,873 9,114 9,294 12% -0.2% 1.3%

L . . . . 8,038 7,986 8,002 8,092 8,170 8,263 8,303 -0% . -0.3%

Latvia H . . . . 809 849 890 929 971 1,020 1,061 38% . 4.8%

B 702 707 734 767 804 820 837 855 876 898 915 19% 3.0% 2.7%

L . . . . 799 790 788 790 797 804 808 5% . 0.8%

11

For Germany, and hence for RP1 and RP2, series includes service units for flight segments

performed as Operational Air Traffic. 74,675 service units concerned for 2014. Estimated number for the coming years is 75.000 per year.

Network Manager






2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

2021/ 2014 Total

Growth

RP1 2014/

2011 AAGR

RP2 2019/

2014 AAGR

Lisbon FIR H . . . . 3,154 3,320 3,480 3,632 3,775 3,933 4,063 35% . 4.6%

B 2,821 2,782 2,877 3,020 3,142 3,257 3,340 3,428 3,509 3,604 3,671 22% 2.3% 3.1%

L . . . . 3,130 3,193 3,202 3,232 3,258 3,291 3,303 9% . 1.5%

Lithuania H . . . . 504 541 571 601 629 660 687 41% . 5.3%

B 420 430 451 487 499 517 532 549 565 581 594 22% 5.1% 3.0%

L . . . . 494 489 493 499 506 513 517 6% . 0.8%

Malta H . . . . 807 880 958 1,042 1,134 1,239 1,348 85% . 9.3%

B 506 641 735 727 799 840 885 938 994 1,056 1,116 53% 12.9% 6.4%

L . . . . 791 798 816 844 873 905 933 28% . 3.7%

Moldova H . . . . 80 100 107 114 122 130 136 4% . .

B 195 206 240 131 78 92 96 101 105 110 115 -13% . .

L . . . . 76 83 84 86 88 91 93 -29% . .

Netherlands H . . . . 2,882 3,022 3,128 3,231 3,321 3,454 3,531 28% . 3.7%

B 2,595 2,587 2,702 2,767 2,872 2,976 3,046 3,118 3,184 3,265 3,309 20% 2.2% 2.8%

L . . . . 2,862 2,926 2,941 2,972 3,001 3,039 3,058 10% . 1.6%

Norway H . . . . 2,364 2,510 2,592 2,665 2,741 2,890 2,974 34% . 4.3%

B 1,713 1,846 2,051 2,221 2,351 2,455 2,512 2,563 2,613 2,700 2,750 24% 9.0% 3.3%

L . . . . 2,338 2,395 2,409 2,431 2,455 2,484 2,496 12% . 2.0%

Poland H . . . . 3,860 4,067 4,301 4,542 4,761 5,010 5,221 33% . 3.9%

B 3,676 3,854 3,984 3,931 3,846 3,976 4,113 4,271 4,410 4,558 4,677 19% 2.3% 2.3%

L . . . . 3,829 3,863 3,902 3,972 4,033 4,096 4,134 5% . 0.5%

Romania H . . . . 4,615 4,890 5,158 5,407 5,671 5,996 6,276 50% . 6.3%

B 3,533 3,575 3,752 4,182 4,586 4,752 4,906 5,079 5,254 5,450 5,618 34% 5.8% 4.7%

L . . . . 4,557 4,594 4,637 4,720 4,817 4,923 4,997 19% . 2.9%

Santa Maria FIR H . . . . 4,657 4,914 5,095 5,268 5,449 5,654 5,818 40% . 5.5%

B 3,983 3,874 4,021 4,166 4,630 4,830 4,952 5,065 5,191 5,327 5,427 30% 1.5% 4.5%

L . . . . 4,602 4,738 4,787 4,835 4,894 4,958 4,996 20% . 3.3%

Serbia-Montenegro-

KFOR 12

H . . . . 2,032 2,189 2,292 2,392 2,488 2,602 2,699 54% . .

B 1,831 1,719 1,639 1,752 2,021 2,136 2,192 2,261 2,326 2,400 2,458 40% . .

L . . . . 2,009 2,079 2,090 2,124 2,159 2,198 2,222 27% . .

Slovakia H . . . . 1,077 1,164 1,222 1,285 1,344 1,419 1,482 42% . 5.2%

B 900 922 985 1,044 1,071 1,133 1,164 1,206 1,243 1,287 1,322 27% 5.1% 3.5%

L . . . . 1,064 1,098 1,102 1,122 1,140 1,162 1,176 13% . 1.8%

12

The charging zone over Serbia and Montenegro has been renamed Serbia-Montenegro-KFOR (following the change in the naming convention, see Final minutes of the 103rd session of the Enlarged Committee dated 19-20.11.2014).

Network Manager






2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

2021/ 2014 Total

Growth

RP1 2014/

2011 AAGR

RP2 2019/

2014 AAGR

Slovenia H . . . . 474 509 532 554 575 600 620 35% . 4.6%

B 425 425 411 459 472 498 511 526 540 556 568 24% 2.6% 3.3%

L . . . . 469 486 489 496 503 511 515 12% . 1.8%

Spain H . . . . 8,969 9,400 9,871 10,309 10,717 11,174 11,555 32% . 4.1%

B 9,099 8,444 8,447 8,768 8,941 9,237 9,504 9,784 10,047 10,345 10,555 20% -1.2% 2.8%

L . . . . 8,911 9,061 9,115 9,230 9,332 9,455 9,507 8% . 1.3%

Sweden H . . . . 3,394 3,529 3,658 3,792 3,908 4,090 4,211 28% . 3.5%

B 3,185 3,126 3,209 3,285 3,381 3,462 3,540 3,633 3,709 3,813 3,878 18% 1.0% 2.5%

L . . . . 3,367 3,386 3,398 3,443 3,474 3,510 3,525 7% . 1.1%

Switzerland H . . . . 1,466 1,533 1,588 1,641 1,690 1,744 1,786 25% . 3.4%

B 1,431 1,399 1,385 1,427 1,459 1,501 1,533 1,569 1,603 1,640 1,665 17% -0.1% 2.3%

L . . . . 1,453 1,467 1,472 1,486 1,499 1,514 1,519 6% . 1.0%

Turkey H . . . . 14,367 15,510 16,879 18,043 19,295 20,725 22,145 73% . .

B 9,618 9,813 10,637 12,809 14,306 15,172 16,084 17,007 17,902 18,883 19,814 55% . .

L . . . . 14,240 14,743 15,242 15,809 16,431 17,070 17,574 37% . .

UK H . . . . 10,149 10,494 10,855 11,195 11,500 11,927 12,171 22% . 2.9%

B 9,860 9,608 9,755 9,979 10,115 10,337 10,555 10,779 10,997 11,269 11,433 15% 0.4% 2.0%

L . . . . 10,078 10,171 10,241 10,345 10,443 10,575 10,640 7% . 0.9%

Ukraine H . . . . 1,286 1,429 1,540 1,646 1,755 1,873 1,979 -29% . .

B 4,465 4,588 4,931 2,771 1,260 1,315 1,378 1,447 1,513 1,582 1,644 -41% . .

L . . . . 1,233 1,187 1,207 1,241 1,276 1,310 1,337 -52% . .

ESRA02 H . . . . 128,727 135,673 142,306 148,485 154,441 161,649 167,547 36% . .

B 115,248 113,602 116,097 123,048 128,192 132,975 136,958 141,151 145,178 149,846 153,427 25% . .

L . . . . 127,631 129,969 131,196 133,189 135,195 137,508 138,922 13% . .

BLUE MED FAB H . . . . 15,603 16,543 17,401 18,271 19,149 20,151 21,062 39% . 4.8%

B 14,770 14,441 14,395 15,113 15,515 16,085 16,556 17,117 17,676 18,298 18,815 24% 0.8% 3.2%

L . . . . 15,423 15,590 15,686 15,941 16,198 16,492 16,687 10% . 1.4%

Baltic FAB H . . . . 4,364 4,608 4,872 5,143 5,391 5,670 5,908 34% . 4.1%

B 4,096 4,284 4,434 4,418 4,345 4,492 4,645 4,820 4,975 5,140 5,271 19% 2.6% 2.4%

L . . . . 4,323 4,352 4,394 4,471 4,539 4,609 4,651 5% . 0.5%

Danube FAB H . . . . 7,825 8,279 8,752 9,179 9,625 10,166 10,637 54% . 6.8%

B 5,551 5,595 5,810 6,925 7,782 8,068 8,345 8,648 8,945 9,278 9,561 38% 7.6% 5.3%

L . . . . 7,736 7,824 7,913 8,063 8,232 8,413 8,538 23% . 3.5%

FAB CE H . . . . 12,292 13,061 13,718 14,351 14,934 15,645 16,234 41% . 5.4%

B 10,567 10,503 10,676 11,492 12,221 12,711 13,087 13,506 13,884 14,318 14,654 28% 2.8% 3.9%

L . . . . 12,147 12,334 12,430 12,628 12,808 13,019 13,143 14% . 2.2%

FABEC H . . . . 38,582 40,369 41,977 43,451 44,742 46,349 47,525 25% . 3.4%

B 36,669 36,246 36,834 37,934 38,478 39,771 40,730 41,679 42,589 43,676 44,388 17% 1.1% 2.3%

L . . . . 38,365 39,101 39,304 39,675 40,041 40,519 40,740 7% . 1.1%

Network Manager






2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

2021/ 2014 Total

Growth

RP1 2014/

2011 AAGR

RP2 2019/

2014 AAGR

NEFAB H . . . . 4,798 5,059 5,248 5,433 5,624 5,914 6,116 34% . 4.2%

B 3,952 4,068 4,296 4,573 4,772 4,938 5,043 5,154 5,267 5,428 5,533 21% 5.0% 2.9%

L . . . . 4,745 4,804 4,816 4,857 4,905 4,962 4,990 9% . 1.4%

South West FAB

H . . . . 13,538 14,213 14,916 15,573 16,190 16,877 17,449 31% . 4.0%

B 13,586 12,825 12,840 13,279 13,489 13,945 14,328 14,731 15,109 15,539 15,841 19% -0.8% 2.6%

L . . . . 13,439 13,664 13,727 13,882 14,018 14,182 14,247 7% . 1.1%

UK-Ireland FAB H . . . . 14,235 14,825 15,340 15,850 16,306 16,903 17,233 24% . 3.2%

B 13,632 13,414 13,568 13,902 14,177 14,576 14,887 15,221 15,539 15,935 16,186 16% 0.7% 2.3%

L . . . . 14,118 14,316 14,421 14,583 14,728 14,923 15,026 8% . 1.2%

DK-SE FAB H . . . . 4,984 5,172 5,363 5,554 5,725 5,990 6,165 28% . 3.5%

B 4,655 4,555 4,732 4,817 4,964 5,078 5,198 5,331 5,446 5,602 5,699 18% 1.1% 2.5%

L . . . . 4,944 4,973 4,995 5,058 5,107 5,166 5,193 8% . 1.2%

CRCO88 H . . . . 73,779 77,199 80,336 83,276 85,930 89,160 91,507 27% . 3.6%

B 70,390 68,828 69,718 71,927 73,526 75,934 77,784 79,667 81,471 83,601 85,024 18% 0.7% 2.5%

L . . . . 73,261 74,560 74,996 75,771 76,508 77,445 77,890 8% . 1.2%

CRCO11 H . . . . 137,452 144,988 152,109 158,777 165,198 172,941 179,295 36% . 4.7%

B 123,211 121,589 124,162 131,379 136,867 142,029 146,282 150,788 155,108 160,096 163,931 25% 2.2% 3.4%

L . . . . 136,254 138,729 140,016 142,149 144,290 146,750 148,254 13% . 1.9%

CRCO14 H . . . . 138,316 145,946 153,151 159,892 166,395 174,226 180,666 37% . 4.7%

B 123,939 122,298 124,910 132,130 137,723 142,947 147,257 151,817 156,195 161,240 165,131 25% 2.2% 3.4%

L . . . . 137,100 139,601 140,922 143,088 145,267 147,762 149,298 13% . 1.9%

RP1Region 11 H . . . . 113,550 119,294 124,617 129,707 134,460 140,296 144,832 32% . 4.1%

B 105,126 103,572 105,235 109,910 113,088 116,920 120,003 123,308 126,450 130,141 132,804 21% 1.5% 2.8%

L . . . . 112,604 114,310 115,025 116,460 117,838 119,501 120,405 10% . 1.4%

RP2Region 11 H . . . . 115,342 121,172 126,583 131,757 136,593 142,525 147,143 32% . 4.1%

B 106,761 105,251 106,930 111,670 114,870 118,746 121,875 125,234 128,430 132,182 134,892 21% 1.5% 2.8%

L . . . . 114,375 116,081 116,803 118,263 119,666 121,359 122,280 10% . 1.4%

Total H . . . . 140,425 148,241 155,600 162,488 169,144 177,148 183,741 35% . 4.5%

B 129,108 127,611 130,582 135,692 139,802 145,106 149,502 154,154 158,625 163,769 167,746 24% 1.7% 3.2%

L . . . . 139,148 141,608 142,953 145,161 147,387 149,931 151,502 12% . 1.7%

Network Manager




Annex 7 Seven-year en-route service units forecast per state (Growth)

Figure 47. Forecast of the total en-route service units growth per State.

Growth in Total En Route Service Units

Annual growth

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

AAGR 2021/ 2014

RP1 2014/ 2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

Albania H . . . . 7.0% 10.4% 3.9% 3.9% 3.8% 4.3% 3.5% 5.2% . .

B 10.8% -1.0% 2.9% 2.9% 6.4% 8.4% 2.0% 2.7% 2.7% 3.0% 2.3% 3.9% . .

L . . . . 5.8% 6.2% 0.1% 1.4% 1.5% 1.8% 1.1% 2.5% . .

Armenia H . . . . -3.5% 15.4% 6.9% 7.3% 7.5% 7.6% 6.9% 6.7% . .

B 16.1% -9.5% -2.9% -4.5% -5.7% 9.7% 4.6% 5.5% 5.7% 5.6% 5.0% 4.2% . .

L . . . . -8.0% 2.8% 2.0% 3.7% 3.8% 3.6% 3.1% 1.5% . .

Austria H . . . . 4.6% 4.0% 4.5% 4.2% 3.5% 4.1% 3.1% 4.0% . 4.2%

B 2.9% -2.0% -0.5% 7.7% 4.1% 2.2% 2.6% 2.9% 2.4% 2.7% 1.9% 2.7% 1.6% 2.8%

L . . . . 3.5% 0.1% 0.6% 1.4% 1.1% 1.3% 0.6% 1.2% . 1.3%

Belgium/Luxembourg H . . . . 4.4% 5.0% 3.9% 3.5% 2.7% 3.5% 2.4% 3.6% . 3.9%

B 4.6% 0.9% 2.0% 3.7% 4.0% 3.7% 2.5% 2.4% 2.4% 2.7% 1.7% 2.8% 2.2% 3.0%

L . . . . 3.7% 2.2% 0.6% 1.1% 1.2% 1.5% 0.9% 1.6% . 1.8%

Bosnia-Herzegovina H . . . . 12.4% 8.7% 5.0% 4.4% 4.2% 4.6% 3.8% 6.1% . .

B 12.5% -5.1% -3.8% 19.7% 11.4% 5.2% 2.8% 3.0% 2.9% 3.1% 2.4% 4.4% . .

L . . . . 10.4% 1.5% 0.7% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 1.0% 2.6% . .

Bulgaria H . . . . 17.0% 5.6% 6.1% 5.0% 4.8% 5.5% 4.6% 6.8% . 7.6%

B 9.7% 0.1% 1.9% 33.3% 16.5% 3.8% 3.7% 3.8% 3.4% 3.7% 3.0% 5.3% 10.8% 6.1%

L . . . . 15.9% 1.6% 1.4% 2.1% 2.1% 2.2% 1.5% 3.7% . 4.5%

Canary Islands H . . . . -5.2% 5.6% 4.8% 4.3% 4.0% 4.3% 3.4% 3.0% . 2.6%

B 8.2% -4.0% -5.2% -1.6% -5.8% 3.2% 2.3% 2.4% 2.2% 2.4% 1.6% 1.1% -3.6% 0.8%

L . . . . -6.3% 0.9% -0.0% 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% -0.5% . -0.9%

Croatia H . . . . 1.8% 4.8% 4.7% 4.3% 4.0% 4.5% 3.7% 4.0% . 3.9%

B 12.6% 2.7% 0.9% 3.9% 1.2% 2.5% 2.5% 2.9% 2.8% 3.1% 2.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4%

L . . . . 0.6% -0.0% 0.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 0.9% 0.9% . 0.8%

Cyprus H . . . . 10.1% 6.4% 7.8% 6.8% 7.0% 7.3% 6.7% 7.4% . 7.6%

B -0.3% -3.3% 1.8% 9.6% 9.6% 4.3% 4.9% 4.9% 5.0% 5.1% 4.5% 5.5% 2.6% 5.7%

L . . . . 9.1% 1.8% 2.3% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 2.4% 3.5% . 3.8%

Czech Republic H . . . . 5.6% 6.3% 4.9% 4.7% 3.6% 4.4% 3.5% 4.7% . 5.0%

B 5.2% -0.0% 3.0% 0.8% 5.0% 4.2% 2.9% 3.1% 2.4% 2.9% 2.1% 3.2% 1.3% 3.5%

L . . . . 4.5% 1.9% 0.8% 1.4% 1.0% 1.4% 0.7% 1.7% . 1.9%

Network Manager





Annual growth

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

AAGR 2021/ 2014

RP1 2014/ 2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

Denmark H . . . . 3.8% 3.3% 3.8% 3.4% 3.1% 4.6% 2.8% 3.5% . 3.5%

B 4.2% -2.8% 6.6% 0.5% 3.4% 2.1% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 3.0% 1.8% 2.5% 1.4% 2.5%

L . . . . 2.9% 0.6% 0.6% 1.1% 1.2% 1.4% 0.7% 1.2% . 1.3%

Estonia H . . . . 4.3% 5.1% 4.9% 4.6% 4.8% 5.5% 4.4% 4.8% . 4.7%

B 12.3% 2.9% 2.3% 6.6% 3.8% 3.0% 2.6% 2.7% 3.0% 3.3% 2.5% 3.0% 3.9% 3.0%

L . . . . 3.2% 0.6% 0.4% 1.0% 1.5% 1.6% 1.1% 1.3% . 1.3%

FYROM H . . . . 13.1% 7.5% 4.3% 4.1% 4.2% 4.8% 4.0% 5.9% . .

B 5.9% -10.2% 1.9% 38.8% 12.6% 5.6% 2.3% 2.8% 3.1% 3.5% 2.7% 4.6% . .

L . . . . 12.1% 3.6% 0.2% 1.3% 1.7% 2.0% 1.3% 3.1% . .

Finland H . . . . 0.7% 4.0% 2.9% 3.6% 3.1% 4.2% 3.1% 3.1% . 2.9%

B 12.6% -5.1% -2.5% 3.3% 0.2% 2.5% 1.3% 2.3% 1.8% 2.4% 1.6% 1.7% -1.5% 1.6%

L . . . . -0.4% 0.9% -0.4% 0.9% 0.6% 1.0% 0.3% 0.4% . 0.3%

France H . . . . 1.9% 5.1% 4.2% 3.7% 3.1% 3.6% 2.6% 3.5% . 3.6%

B 6.3% -1.0% 2.2% 3.3% 1.7% 3.8% 2.5% 2.4% 2.3% 2.6% 1.7% 2.4% 1.5% 2.5%

L . . . . 1.4% 2.4% 0.5% 1.0% 0.9% 1.2% 0.5% 1.1% . 1.2%

Georgia H . . . . 15.0% 10.9% 8.8% 7.0% 7.3% 7.3% 6.7% 9.0% . .

B 10.5% -2.5% 5.4% 0.6% 13.8% 7.3% 6.4% 5.4% 5.6% 5.3% 4.9% 6.9% . .

L . . . . 12.6% 3.0% 3.9% 3.7% 4.0% 3.6% 3.1% 4.8% . .

Germany11

H . . . . 0.2% 3.8% 3.9% 3.4% 2.9% 3.6% 2.5% 2.9% . 2.8%

B 3.6% -1.8% 0.5% 2.5% -0.0% 2.6% 2.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.4% 1.5% 1.9% 0.4% 1.8%

L . . . . -0.3% 1.2% 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.7% . 0.6%

Greece H . . . . 9.8% 8.8% 4.8% 5.0% 4.8% 5.4% 4.7% 6.2% . 6.6%

B 2.1% -4.2% -3.3% 9.5% 9.1% 6.3% 2.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.8% 3.1% 4.5% 0.5% 5.0%

L . . . . 8.4% 3.7% 0.5% 1.8% 1.8% 2.1% 1.5% 2.8% . 3.2%

Hungary H . . . . 15.3% 7.8% 6.0% 5.1% 4.8% 5.6% 4.5% 7.0% . 7.7%

B -1.2% -2.1% 3.8% 14.5% 14.6% 5.3% 3.7% 3.7% 3.4% 3.7% 2.9% 5.3% 5.2% 6.1%

L . . . . 13.8% 2.6% 1.4% 2.0% 2.0% 2.1% 1.4% 3.6% . 4.3%

Ireland H . . . . 4.2% 6.0% 3.6% 3.8% 3.3% 3.5% 1.7% 3.7% . 4.1%

B 4.3% 0.9% 0.2% 2.9% 3.6% 4.3% 2.2% 2.5% 2.3% 2.7% 1.9% 2.8% 1.3% 3.0%

L . . . . 3.0% 2.6% 0.8% 1.4% 1.1% 1.5% 0.9% 1.6% . 1.8%

Italy H . . . . -2.3% 3.9% 4.5% 4.2% 3.9% 4.2% 3.4% 3.1% . 2.8%

B -2.9% -2.8% -0.3% 2.4% -2.8% 1.8% 2.4% 2.8% 2.5% 2.7% 2.0% 1.6% -0.2% 1.3%

L . . . . -3.3% -0.6% 0.2% 1.1% 1.0% 1.1% 0.5% -0.0% . -0.3%

Latvia H . . . . 5.5% 4.9% 4.8% 4.4% 4.5% 5.0% 4.1% 4.8% . 4.8%

B 10.8% 0.7% 3.8% 4.5% 4.9% 2.0% 2.1% 2.1% 2.4% 2.6% 1.9% 2.6% 3.0% 2.7%

L . . . . 4.2% -1.2% -0.2% 0.3% 0.8% 0.9% 0.5% 0.8% . 0.8%

Network Manager





Annual growth

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

AAGR 2021/ 2014

RP1 2014/ 2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

Lisbon FIR H . . . . 4.5% 5.3% 4.8% 4.4% 3.9% 4.2% 3.3% 4.3% . 4.6%

B 7.5% -1.4% 3.4% 5.0% 4.1% 3.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.4% 2.7% 1.8% 2.8% 2.3% 3.1%

L . . . . 3.7% 2.0% 0.3% 0.9% 0.8% 1.0% 0.4% 1.3% . 1.5%

Lithuania H . . . . 3.5% 7.4% 5.5% 5.2% 4.7% 4.9% 4.0% 5.0% . 5.3%

B 13.2% 2.3% 4.9% 8.1% 2.4% 3.5% 3.0% 3.2% 3.0% 2.9% 2.2% 2.9% 5.1% 3.0%

L . . . . 1.4% -0.9% 0.7% 1.3% 1.4% 1.3% 0.8% 0.8% . 0.8%

Malta H . . . . 10.9% 9.1% 8.9% 8.7% 8.8% 9.2% 8.8% 9.2% . 9.3%

B 3.9% 26.8% 14.7% -1.1% 9.9% 5.1% 5.4% 6.0% 6.0% 6.2% 5.7% 6.3% 12.9% 6.4%

L . . . . 8.8% 0.8% 2.3% 3.4% 3.5% 3.7% 3.1% 3.6% . 3.7%

Moldova H . . . . -39.3% 26.1% 7.0% 6.3% 6.5% 6.8% 5.1% 0.6% . .

B 7.4% 5.7% 16.8% -45.5% -40.8% 18.4% 4.6% 4.8% 4.6% 4.6% 4.1% -1.9% . .

L . . . . -42.4% 9.5% 1.2% 2.6% 2.9% 2.9% 2.2% -4.8% . .

Netherlands H . . . . 4.1% 4.9% 3.5% 3.3% 2.8% 4.0% 2.2% 3.5% . 3.7%

B 4.8% -0.3% 4.4% 2.4% 3.8% 3.6% 2.3% 2.4% 2.1% 2.6% 1.3% 2.6% 2.2% 2.8%

L . . . . 3.4% 2.2% 0.5% 1.1% 1.0% 1.3% 0.6% 1.4% . 1.6%

Norway H . . . . 6.4% 6.2% 3.2% 2.8% 2.9% 5.4% 2.9% 4.3% . 4.3%

B 8.2% 7.8% 11.1% 8.3% 5.9% 4.4% 2.3% 2.0% 2.0% 3.3% 1.8% 3.1% 9.0% 3.3%

L . . . . 5.3% 2.4% 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 0.5% 1.7% . 2.0%

Poland H . . . . -1.8% 5.4% 5.8% 5.6% 4.8% 5.2% 4.2% 4.1% . 3.9%

B 11.0% 4.8% 3.4% -1.3% -2.2% 3.4% 3.5% 3.8% 3.2% 3.4% 2.6% 2.5% 2.3% 2.3%

L . . . . -2.6% 0.9% 1.0% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.7% . 0.5%

Romania H . . . . 10.4% 6.0% 5.5% 4.8% 4.9% 5.7% 4.7% 6.0% . 6.3%

B 3.5% 1.2% 4.9% 11.5% 9.7% 3.6% 3.2% 3.5% 3.4% 3.7% 3.1% 4.3% 5.8% 4.7%

L . . . . 9.0% 0.8% 0.9% 1.8% 2.1% 2.2% 1.5% 2.6% . 2.9%

Santa Maria FIR H . . . . 11.8% 5.5% 3.7% 3.4% 3.4% 3.8% 2.9% 4.9% . 5.5%

B 7.8% -2.7% 3.8% 3.6% 11.1% 4.3% 2.5% 2.3% 2.5% 2.6% 1.9% 3.8% 1.5% 4.5%

L . . . . 10.5% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 1.3% 0.8% 2.6% . 3.3%

Serbia-Montenegro-

KFOR 12

H . . . . 16.0% 7.7% 4.7% 4.4% 4.0% 4.6% 3.7% 6.4% . .

B 0.6% -6.1% -4.7% 6.9% 15.4% 5.7% 2.7% 3.2% 2.9% 3.2% 2.4% 5.0% . .

L . . . . 14.7% 3.5% 0.5% 1.7% 1.6% 1.8% 1.1% 3.5% . .

Slovakia H . . . . 3.1% 8.1% 5.0% 5.1% 4.6% 5.6% 4.4% 5.1% . 5.2%

B 5.2% 2.4% 6.9% 6.0% 2.5% 5.8% 2.8% 3.6% 3.1% 3.6% 2.7% 3.4% 5.1% 3.5%

L . . . . 1.9% 3.2% 0.4% 1.8% 1.6% 1.9% 1.2% 1.7% . 1.8%

Slovenia H . . . . 3.2% 7.4% 4.6% 4.1% 3.8% 4.3% 3.4% 4.4% . 4.6%

B 16.3% 0.1% -3.3% 11.7% 2.7% 5.6% 2.6% 2.9% 2.6% 2.9% 2.1% 3.1% 2.6% 3.3%

L . . . . 2.2% 3.6% 0.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.6% 0.8% 1.7% . 1.8%

Network Manager





Annual growth

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

AAGR 2021/ 2014

RP1 2014/ 2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

Spain H . . . . 2.3% 4.8% 5.0% 4.4% 4.0% 4.3% 3.4% 4.0% . 4.1%

B 5.3% -7.2% 0.0% 3.8% 2.0% 3.3% 2.9% 2.9% 2.7% 3.0% 2.0% 2.7% -1.2% 2.8%

L . . . . 1.6% 1.7% 0.6% 1.3% 1.1% 1.3% 0.6% 1.2% . 1.3%

Sweden H . . . . 3.3% 4.0% 3.6% 3.7% 3.1% 4.7% 2.9% 3.6% . 3.5%

B 7.9% -1.8% 2.6% 2.4% 2.9% 2.4% 2.3% 2.6% 2.1% 2.8% 1.7% 2.4% 1.0% 2.5%

L . . . . 2.5% 0.6% 0.4% 1.3% 0.9% 1.0% 0.4% 1.0% . 1.1%

Switzerland H . . . . 2.7% 4.6% 3.6% 3.3% 3.0% 3.2% 2.4% 3.3% . 3.4%

B 1.5% -2.3% -1.0% 3.0% 2.3% 2.9% 2.1% 2.3% 2.2% 2.3% 1.5% 2.2% -0.1% 2.3%

L . . . . 1.8% 1.0% 0.3% 1.0% 0.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.9% . 1.0%

Turkey H . . . . 12.2% 8.0% 8.8% 6.9% 6.9% 7.4% 6.9% 8.1% . .

B 7.8% 2.0% 8.4% 20.4% 11.7% 6.1% 6.0% 5.7% 5.3% 5.5% 4.9% 6.4% . .

L . . . . 11.2% 3.5% 3.4% 3.7% 3.9% 3.9% 3.0% 4.6% . .

UK H . . . . 1.7% 3.4% 3.4% 3.1% 2.7% 3.7% 2.0% 2.9% . 2.9%

B 4.0% -2.6% 1.5% 2.3% 1.4% 2.2% 2.1% 2.1% 2.0% 2.5% 1.5% 2.0% 0.4% 2.0%

L . . . . 1.0% 0.9% 0.7% 1.0% 0.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.9% . 0.9%

Ukraine H . . . . -53.6% 11.2% 7.8% 6.9% 6.6% 6.8% 5.6% -4.7% . .

B 6.6% 2.8% 7.5% -43.8% -54.6% 4.4% 4.8% 5.0% 4.5% 4.6% 3.9% -7.2% . .

L . . . . -55.5% -3.7% 1.7% 2.9% 2.8% 2.7% 2.0% -9.9% . .

ESRA02 H . . . . 4.6% 5.4% 4.9% 4.3% 4.0% 4.7% 3.6% 4.5% . .

B 4.7% -1.4% 2.2% 6.0% 4.2% 3.7% 3.0% 3.1% 2.9% 3.2% 2.4% 3.2% . .

L . . . . 3.7% 1.8% 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 1.0% 1.7% . .

BLUE MED FAB H . . . . 3.2% 6.0% 5.2% 5.0% 4.8% 5.2% 4.5% 4.9% . 4.8%

B -1.0% -2.2% -0.3% 5.0% 2.7% 3.7% 2.9% 3.4% 3.3% 3.5% 2.8% 3.2% 0.8% 3.2%

L . . . . 2.1% 1.1% 0.6% 1.6% 1.6% 1.8% 1.2% 1.4% . 1.4%

Baltic FAB H . . . . -1.2% 5.6% 5.7% 5.6% 4.8% 5.2% 4.2% 4.2% . 4.1%

B 11.2% 4.6% 3.5% -0.4% -1.7% 3.4% 3.4% 3.8% 3.2% 3.3% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.4%

L . . . . -2.1% 0.7% 1.0% 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 0.9% 0.7% . 0.5%

Danube FAB H . . . . 13.0% 5.8% 5.7% 4.9% 4.9% 5.6% 4.6% 6.3% . 6.8%

B 5.7% 0.8% 3.8% 19.2% 12.4% 3.7% 3.4% 3.6% 3.4% 3.7% 3.1% 4.7% 7.6% 5.3%

L . . . . 11.7% 1.1% 1.1% 1.9% 2.1% 2.2% 1.5% 3.0% . 3.5%

FAB CE H . . . . 7.0% 6.3% 5.0% 4.6% 4.1% 4.8% 3.8% 5.1% . 5.4%

B 5.3% -0.6% 1.6% 7.6% 6.3% 4.0% 3.0% 3.2% 2.8% 3.1% 2.3% 3.5% 2.8% 3.9%

L . . . . 5.7% 1.5% 0.8% 1.6% 1.4% 1.6% 1.0% 1.9% . 2.2%

FABEC H . . . . 1.7% 4.6% 4.0% 3.5% 3.0% 3.6% 2.5% 3.3% . 3.4%

B 5.0% -1.2% 1.6% 3.0% 1.4% 3.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.2% 2.6% 1.6% 2.3% 1.1% 2.3%

L . . . . 1.1% 1.9% 0.5% 0.9% 0.9% 1.2% 0.5% 1.0% . 1.1%

Network Manager





Annual growth

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

AAGR 2021/ 2014

RP1 2014/ 2011

AAGR

RP2 2019/ 2014

AAGR

NEFAB H . . . . 4.9% 5.4% 3.7% 3.5% 3.5% 5.2% 3.4% 4.2% . 4.2%

B 10.3% 2.9% 5.6% 6.5% 4.3% 3.5% 2.1% 2.2% 2.2% 3.1% 1.9% 2.8% 5.0% 2.9%

L . . . . 3.8% 1.2% 0.3% 0.9% 1.0% 1.2% 0.6% 1.3% . 1.4%

South West FAB H . . . . 1.9% 5.0% 4.9% 4.4% 4.0% 4.2% 3.4% 4.0% . 4.0%

B 6.1% -5.6% 0.1% 3.4% 1.6% 3.4% 2.8% 2.8% 2.6% 2.8% 1.9% 2.6% -0.8% 2.6%

L . . . . 1.2% 1.7% 0.5% 1.1% 1.0% 1.2% 0.5% 1.0% . 1.1%

UK-Ireland FAB H . . . . 2.4% 4.1% 3.5% 3.3% 2.9% 3.7% 2.0% 3.1% . 3.2%

B 4.1% -1.6% 1.1% 2.5% 2.0% 2.8% 2.1% 2.2% 2.1% 2.5% 1.6% 2.2% 0.7% 2.3%

L . . . . 1.6% 1.4% 0.7% 1.1% 1.0% 1.3% 0.7% 1.1% . 1.2%

DK-SE FAB H . . . . 3.5% 3.8% 3.7% 3.6% 3.1% 4.6% 2.9% 3.6% . 3.5%

B 6.7% -2.1% 3.9% 1.8% 3.1% 2.3% 2.3% 2.6% 2.2% 2.9% 1.7% 2.4% 1.1% 2.5%

L . . . . 2.6% 0.6% 0.4% 1.3% 1.0% 1.1% 0.5% 1.1% . 1.2%

CRCO88 H . . . . 2.6% 4.6% 4.1% 3.7% 3.2% 3.8% 2.6% 3.5% . 3.6%

B 5.1% -2.2% 1.3% 3.2% 2.2% 3.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.6% 1.7% 2.4% 0.7% 2.5%

L . . . . 1.9% 1.8% 0.6% 1.0% 1.0% 1.2% 0.6% 1.1% . 1.2%

CRCO11 H . . . . 4.6% 5.5% 4.9% 4.4% 4.0% 4.7% 3.7% 4.5% . 4.7%

B 5.0% -1.3% 2.1% 5.8% 4.2% 3.8% 3.0% 3.1% 2.9% 3.2% 2.4% 3.2% 2.2% 3.4%

L . . . . 3.7% 1.8% 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 1.0% 1.7% . 1.9%

CRCO14 H . . . . 4.7% 5.5% 4.9% 4.4% 4.1% 4.7% 3.7% 4.6% . 4.7%

B 5.0% -1.3% 2.1% 5.8% 4.2% 3.8% 3.0% 3.1% 2.9% 3.2% 2.4% 3.2% 2.2% 3.4%

L . . . . 3.8% 1.8% 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 1.0% 1.8% . 1.9%

RP1Region 11

H . . . . 3.3% 5.1% 4.5% 4.1% 3.7% 4.3% 3.2% 4.0% . 4.1%

B 4.5% -1.5% 1.6% 4.4% 2.9% 3.4% 2.6% 2.8% 2.5% 2.9% 2.0% 2.7% 1.5% 2.8%

L . . . . 2.5% 1.5% 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 0.8% 1.3% . 1.4%

RP2Region 11

H . . . . 3.3% 5.1% 4.5% 4.1% 3.7% 4.3% 3.2% 4.0% . 4.1%

B 4.6% -1.4% 1.6% 4.4% 2.9% 3.4% 2.6% 2.8% 2.6% 2.9% 2.1% 2.7% 1.5% 2.8%

L . . . . 2.4% 1.5% 0.6% 1.2% 1.2% 1.4% 0.8% 1.3% . 1.4%

Total H . . . . 3.5% 5.6% 5.0% 4.4% 4.1% 4.7% 3.7% 4.4% . 4.5%

B 5.1% -1.2% 2.3% 3.9% 3.0% 3.8% 3.0% 3.1% 2.9% 3.2% 2.4% 3.1% 1.7% 3.2%

L . . . . 2.5% 1.8% 0.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.7% 1.0% 1.6% . 1.7%

Network Manager




Annex 8 Terminal Navigation service units forecast per state

This appendix presents the forecast of the terminal navigation service units based on the terminal charging zones definition for RP2 and the use of a 0.7 exponent in the terminal service unit definition (to be used as of 2015). The definition of the charging zones is in line with their latest definitions available as agreed in their performance plans for RP2 (Summer 2015).

As in the February forecast, the historical values up to 2014 have been reconstructed based on CRCO flight information with the TCZ definitions and the exponent used to compute the TNSU as applicable by states according to their RP1 performance plans up to 2013 and to the definition of RP2 used in the February forecast for 2014 (see details in Appendix H of Ref. 1).

Figure 48. Forecast of the total number of Terminal service units (thousands) per Terminal Charging Zone.

Terminal Navigation Service Units (Thousands)

Terminal Navigation Service Units (thousands) 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Austria LO_TCZ High . . . . 179.2 185.2 192.6 200.6 207.0 218.7 225.7

Base 184.1 179.1 175.5 178.4 178.7 181.4 186.3 192.6 198.0 204.2 210.0

Low . . . . 178.0 176.8 176.9 180.5 183.4 186.5 188.7

Belgium EB_TCZ_EBAW High . . . . 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.7

Base 2.1 1.9 1.9 1.7 2.1 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.6

Low . . . . 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.5

EB_TCZ_EBBR High . . . . 156.5 163.1 170.7 177.7 180.2 182.3 184.7

Base 158.3 150.8 142.3 146.6 156.0 160.2 165.1 170.1 175.5 182.3 184.6

Low . . . . 155.4 156.6 158.2 160.6 163.1 167.1 170.2

EB_TCZ_EBCI High . . . . 30.2 31.9 33.9 36.0 38.3 40.9 43.3

Base 25.0 27.9 30.2 28.1 30.1 31.2 32.5 34.1 35.6 37.4 39.1

Low . . . . 30.0 30.4 31.0 31.9 32.7 33.8 34.7

EB_TCZ_EBLG High . . . . 27.3 30.4 32.6 35.0 37.6 40.6 43.5

Base 27.3 23.5 22.9 24.7 27.2 29.9 31.4 33.1 35.0 37.4 39.9

Low . . . . 27.1 29.2 30.1 31.4 32.7 34.3 35.9

EB_TCZ_EBOS High . . . . 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.6 3.9 4.1

Base 3.5 3.4 3.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.8

Low . . . . 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.9 3.0 3.1

Bulgaria LB_TCZ High . . . . 24.1 24.8 26.6 28.8 30.8 33.0 35.4

Base 41.1 41.5 41.7 44.2 24.0 24.1 25.2 26.8 28.1 29.4 30.7

Low . . . . 23.9 22.9 23.7 24.8 25.6 26.5 27.4

Croatia LD_TCZ High . . . . 17.2 18.9 19.9 20.5 21.3 22.3 23.3

Base 16.7 16.0 15.8 16.3 17.1 18.4 19.0 19.6 19.9 20.3 20.7

Low . . . . 17.0 17.5 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.7 18.6

Network Manager






Cyprus LC_TCZ High . . . . 41.2 44.7 47.8 51.2 55.4 59.9 63.9

Base 43.9 42.5 39.0 40.0 40.9 42.6 44.1 46.2 48.4 50.4 52.2

Low . . . . 40.5 40.5 40.7 41.5 42.4 43.6 44.2

Czech Republic LK_TCZ High . . . . 75.6 84.1 91.8 100.3 110.0 119.7 128.3

Base 84.4 75.3 73.7 72.9 75.3 80.6 84.5 88.6 93.2 98.4 103.1

Low . . . . 74.7 77.3 78.5 80.1 81.9 84.2 85.7

Denmark EK_TCZ High . . . . 157.5 163.9 168.8 176.0 181.7 190.3 196.3

Base 145.3 143.7 148.1 154.5 157.0 161.2 164.0 168.9 172.9 178.7 182.1

Low . . . . 156.5 156.5 156.0 159.2 160.7 163.7 163.7

Estonia EE_TCZ High . . . . 16.7 17.0 18.3 19.3 21.3 23.7 25.2

Base 16.0 18.9 14.6 15.1 16.6 16.3 17.0 17.6 18.5 19.2 20.3

Low . . . . 16.5 15.6 15.8 16.1 16.4 16.8 17.2

Finland EF_TCZ High . . . . 101.3 106.2 111.0 116.4 124.2 132.1 139.8

Base 107.1 97.6 97.9 99.4 100.9 102.8 105.3 108.7 111.9 115.6 117.9

Low . . . . 100.6 100.1 100.1 101.5 102.9 104.6 105.6

France LF_TCZ High . . . . 1046.2 1082.9 1110.9 1145.5 1175.1 1196.6 1228.2

Base 1145.6 1092.7 1090.7 1031.1 1043.5 1063.6 1084.5 1101.6 1119.6 1141.9 1159.6

Low . . . . 1039.3 1038.8 1040.0 1040.2 1044.4 1052.3 1052.6

Germany ED_TCZ High . . . . 1342.5 1385.0 1433.4 1485.4 1527.0 1584.4 1645.6

Base 1311.6 1295.5 1282.3 1311.6 1337.5 1362.8 1389.1 1419.0 1446.2 1494.3 1534.7

Low . . . . 1333.0 1334.6 1338.7 1349.9 1361.5 1391.4 1413.5

Greece LG_TCZ High . . . . 100.9 111.7 113.7 116.9 121.2 126.2 130.2

Base 96.4 83.0 74.5 86.0 100.4 108.6 109.1 111.4 114.4 117.7 120.6

Low . . . . 99.7 105.9 104.3 105.2 106.5 108.4 109.8

Hungary LH_TCZ High . . . . 54.9 60.2 65.5 69.6 75.8 81.0 86.5

Base 59.0 49.6 49.2 50.7 54.6 58.1 60.6 63.1 65.6 69.5 71.9

Low . . . . 54.2 55.8 55.9 57.0 58.0 59.2 60.0

Ireland EI_TCZ High . . . . 152.2 164.0 174.7 184.2 196.0 203.4 206.1

Base 136.0 129.5 136.7 137.5 151.7 160.3 166.8 173.4 179.8 185.2 189.3

Low . . . . 151.1 156.6 160.3 163.4 167.0 169.8 171.1

Italy LI_TCZ_1 High . . . . 221.5 232.2 235.9 245.4 255.2 267.1 276.9

Base 225.7 217.7 210.0 218.5 220.7 225.9 230.4 235.6 233.5 238.8 243.2

Low . . . . 219.8 219.6 218.4 219.4 220.3 220.8 220.4

LI_TCZ_2 High . . . . 281.1 294.8 309.5 324.8 339.9 357.0 373.3

Base 292.1 285.7 275.3 275.1 280.0 286.9 294.8 303.6 312.3 321.6 329.1

Low . . . . 278.9 278.3 279.3 282.6 285.1 288.7 290.4

Latvia EV_TCZ High . . . . 32.5 34.5 37.4 40.4 42.9 45.0 47.3

Base 32.2 31.5 32.4 31.4 32.2 32.1 32.9 33.8 34.5 35.1 35.2

Low . . . . 32.0 30.9 30.5 30.0 29.9 29.5 28.8

Network Manager






Lisbon FIR LP_TCZ High . . . . 205.5 216.8 228.4 238.5 248.5 259.8 270.3

Base 177.5 175.7 180.3 191.8 204.7 211.4 216.9 222.8 228.5 235.4 239.8

Low . . . . 203.9 205.6 206.2 208.5 210.7 213.2 214.2

Lithuania EY_TCZ High . . . . 24.1 25.8 28.3 30.9 33.8 37.4 40.6

Base 17.8 19.2 21.0 23.6 23.8 24.7 26.0 27.7 29.4 31.3 33.0

Low . . . . 23.6 23.8 24.3 25.4 26.0 26.9 27.8

Luxembourg EL_TCZ High . . . . 43.1 45.9 48.4 50.5 53.2 56.6 59.9

Base 35.3 34.9 37.3 39.0 43.0 44.7 46.5 48.1 50.0 52.5 54.9

Low . . . . 42.7 43.4 44.5 45.3 46.4 46.0 47.5

Malta LM_TCZ High . . . . 26.6 29.6 32.3 34.7 37.2 41.0 46.0

Base . 20.7 22.7 23.9 26.5 27.8 29.9 31.3 32.9 35.0 37.0

Low . . . . 26.3 26.8 27.1 28.5 29.1 30.4 31.4

Netherlands EH_TCZ High . . . . 365.1 370.2 382.4 397.0 407.6 420.3 425.5

Base 339.0 339.2 345.0 356.6 365.2 370.4 382.6 396.8 407.0 419.7 423.9

Low . . . . 364.2 369.0 370.6 377.2 382.2 388.8 392.9

Norway EN_TCZ High . . . . 246.5 257.0 262.7 266.8 270.7 291.2 300.1

Base 229.5 242.4 255.4 247.9 246.0 253.9 259.4 264.6 268.3 276.2 282.1

Low . . . . 245.3 249.4 251.3 254.7 258.5 262.6 273.3

Poland EP_TCZ High . . . . 169.4 185.4 198.5 214.4 230.6 247.9 263.6

Base 133.7 148.9 149.9 156.4 168.6 179.8 190.2 201.3 212.6 225.8 237.4

Low . . . . 167.9 172.9 177.2 182.8 188.6 194.1 198.5

Romania LR_TCZ High . . . . 54.6 57.6 61.9 65.7 70.0 75.1 80.5

Base 37.1 45.1 47.3 50.3 54.4 56.1 58.6 60.8 63.3 66.5 69.0

Low . . . . 54.2 54.8 55.8 56.8 58.0 59.3 60.2

Slovakia LZ_TCZ High . . . . 10.3 11.3 12.1 13.2 14.6 15.6 16.9

Base 9.9 8.7 8.6 8.3 10.2 10.8 11.3 11.9 12.4 13.6 14.1

Low . . . . 10.1 10.5 10.7 11.0 11.3 11.6 11.8

Slovenia LJ_TCZ High . . . . 12.5 13.3 14.8 15.7 16.7 18.4 19.4

Base 12.5 11.1 11.3 11.1 12.4 13.1 13.3 13.9 15.1 15.6 16.2

Low . . . . 12.3 12.6 12.8 13.1 13.2 13.5 13.6

Spain LE_TCZ High . . . . 672.6 705.9 737.4 773.1 809.4 844.4 883.2

Base 776.8 725.6 700.4 651.2 670.2 691.0 707.0 731.0 754.5 783.6 807.1

Low . . . . 667.4 671.5 678.1 690.8 701.8 717.2 727.2

Sweden ES_TCZ_A High . . . . 138.6 146.0 150.9 156.7 161.8 169.0 174.5

Base 121.9 121.7 128.6 135.6 138.2 143.3 146.3 149.7 152.4 156.6 159.8

Low . . . . 137.9 139.3 139.3 140.8 141.7 143.8 144.9

Switzerland LS_TCZ High . . . . 269.5 282.6 295.8 310.3 323.6 337.8 352.2

Base 251.4 254.4 252.1 262.2 268.5 277.7 286.8 297.3 307.5 319.0 328.0

Low . . . . 267.5 271.2 274.3 280.1 285.4 291.8 295.6

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UK EG_TCZ_B High . . . . 1185.3 1216.8 1259.0 1297.5 1332.7 1400.6 1442.3

Base 1080.5 1079.6 1106.0 1142.7 1183.0 1210.3 1231.2 1260.5 1291.6 1320.3 1330.1

Low . . . . 1180.3 1192.8 1209.8 1229.5 1241.4 1255.3 1262.7

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Annex 9 Terminal Navigation service units growth forecast per state

This appendix presents the same data as the previous, but presented as growth rather than counts of terminal navigation service units. The low growth observed for Bulgaria in 2015 can be attributed to the suppression of 4 airports in 2015 compared to what was considered in 2014. The rest of the TCZ changes does not have a significant impact.

Figure 49. Forecast of the total number of Terminal service units (growth) per Terminal Charging Zone.

Growth in Terminal Navigation Service Units

Annual Growth 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Austria LO_TCZ High . . . . 0.4% 3.4% 4.0% 4.2% 3.2% 5.6% 3.0%

Base 1.9% -2.7% -2.0% 1.6% 0.1% 1.5% 2.7% 3.4% 2.8% 3.1% 2.6%

Low . . . . -0.2% -0.6% 0.0% 2.0% 1.6% 1.5% 1.0%

Belgium EB_TCZ_EBAW High . . . . 28% 7.4% 4.7% 2.9% 3.1% 2.9% 2.2%

Base . -9.6% -1.5% -11% 28% 5.8% 3.9% 2.7% 2.2% 3.0% 1.5%

Low . . . . 27% 4.2% 1.2% 1.7% 1.9% 2.2% 1.2%

EB_TCZ_EBBR High . . . . 6.8% 4.2% 4.6% 4.1% 1.4% 1.2% 1.2%

Base . -4.7% -5.6% 3.0% 6.5% 2.7% 3.0% 3.0% 3.2% 3.4% 1.8%

Low . . . . 6.1% 0.7% 1.1% 1.5% 1.5% 1.9% 1.3%

EB_TCZ_EBCI High . . . . 7.6% 5.4% 6.5% 6.1% 6.3% 6.5% 5.5%

Base . 12% 8.3% -7.0% 7.3% 3.5% 4.4% 4.6% 4.5% 4.9% 4.1%

Low . . . . 6.9% 1.3% 2.0% 2.8% 2.8% 2.9% 2.3%

EB_TCZ_EBLG High . . . . 10% 12% 7.1% 7.2% 7.5% 7.4% 5.5%

Base . -14% -2.6% 8.1% 9.8% 9.9% 5.2% 5.5% 5.5% 6.3% 5.0%

Low . . . . 9.4% 7.8% 3.1% 4.2% 4.3% 4.2% 3.8%

EB_TCZ_EBOS High . . . . 9.4% 7.5% 5.6% 6.1% 17% 5.9% 8.6%

Base . -2.6% -7.5% -26% 8.9% 6.3% 3.5% 4.4% 5.0% 14% 5.7%

Low . . . . 8.4% 4.5% 2.6% 3.2% 3.0% 3.2% 3.3%

Bulgaria LB_TCZ High . . . . -45% 2.7% 7.4% 8.0% 6.9% 6.9% 6.8%

Base 4.2% 0.9% 0.5% 6.1% -46% 0.3% 4.4% 6.6% 4.8% 4.1% 4.2%

Low . . . . -46% -4.4% 3.6% 4.8% 3.1% 3.3% 3.1%

Croatia LD_TCZ High . . . . 5.4% 9.7% 5.2% 3.3% 3.5% 4.6% 4.3%

Base 3.2% -4.5% -1.0% 3.5% 4.8% 7.2% 3.2% 3.6% 1.1% 1.9% 2.2%

Low . . . . 4.2% 2.9% 1.1% 2.3% 1.7% 1.6% -1.1%

Cyprus LC_TCZ High . . . . 2.9% 8.7% 6.9% 7.2% 8.2% 9.0% 7.5%

Base . -3.1% -8.3% 2.5% 2.2% 4.3% 3.5% 4.6% 4.8% 5.1% 5.3%

Low . . . . 1.4% -0.1% 0.5% 1.9% 2.3% 3.6% 2.6%

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Annual Growth 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Czech Republic LK_TCZ High . . . . 3.6% 11% 9.2% 9.2% 9.7% 8.9% 7.2%

Base 2.0% -11% -2.1% -1.0% 3.3% 7.1% 4.8% 4.8% 5.2% 5.6% 4.8%

Low . . . . 2.4% 3.6% 1.6% 1.9% 2.3% 2.9% 1.7%

Denmark EK_TCZ High . . . . 1.9% 4.1% 2.9% 4.3% 3.3% 4.5% 2.9%

Base 5.0% -1.1% 3.1% 4.3% 1.7% 2.6% 1.8% 3.0% 2.4% 3.1% 1.8%

Low . . . . 1.3% 0.1% -0.4% 2.1% 0.9% 1.4% 0.1%

Estonia EE_TCZ High . . . . 11% 2.1% 7.2% 5.9% 9.9% 11% 6.0%

Base 24% 18% -23% 3.4% 9.8% -1.5% 4.0% 3.7% 4.9% 3.6% 6.4%

Low . . . . 9.1% -4.9% 0.7% 2.0% 2.2% 3.1% 1.3%

Finland EF_TCZ High . . . . 2.0% 4.8% 4.5% 4.9% 6.7% 6.2% 5.7%

Base 15% -8.9% 0.4% 1.5% 1.6% 1.8% 2.4% 3.3% 2.9% 3.0% 2.3%

Low . . . . 1.3% -0.5% 0.0% 1.4% 1.4% 1.5% 0.9%

France LF_TCZ High . . . . 1.5% 3.5% 2.6% 3.1% 2.6% 2.7% 2.6%

Base 4.7% -4.6% -0.2% -5.5% 1.2% 1.9% 2.0% 1.6% 1.6% 2.9% 2.3%

Low . . . . 0.8% -0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.4% 1.5% 0.8%

Germany ED_TCZ High . . . . 2.4% 3.2% 3.5% 3.6% 2.8% 2.9% 2.8%

Base 4.5% -1.2% -1.0% 2.3% 2.0% 1.9% 1.9% 2.1% 1.9% 2.5% 1.8%

Low . . . . 1.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.8% 0.9% 1.3% 0.7%

Greece LG_TCZ High . . . . 17% 11% 1.8% 2.8% 3.7% 4.3% 3.6%

Base -7.1% -14% -10% 15% 17% 8.2% 0.4% 2.2% 2.7% 3.3% 2.8%

Low . . . . 16% 6.2% -1.5% 0.8% 1.3% 2.2% 1.5%

Hungary LH_TCZ High . . . . 8.3% 9.8% 8.8% 6.2% 8.8% 7.2% 6.8%

Base 5.4% -16% -0.9% 3.1% 7.6% 6.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.0% 6.1% 3.8%

Low . . . . 7.0% 2.9% 0.2% 1.8% 1.9% 2.2% 1.6%

Ireland EI_TCZ High . . . . 11% 7.8% 6.5% 5.4% 6.4% 3.9% 1.6%

Base -1.2% -4.7% 5.5% 0.6% 10% 5.7% 4.1% 3.9% 3.7% 4.2% 3.4%

Low . . . . 9.8% 3.7% 2.4% 1.9% 2.2% 2.7% 1.9%

Italy LI_TCZ_1 High . . . . 1.4% 4.8% 1.6% 4.0% 4.0% 4.6% 3.6%

Base -0.5% -3.6% -3.5% 4.0% 1.0% 2.4% 2.0% 2.2% -0.9% 2.3% 1.9%

Low . . . . 0.6% -0.1% -0.6% 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% -0.1%

LI_TCZ_2 High . . . . 2.2% 4.8% 5.0% 5.0% 4.6% 5.1% 4.6%

Base 3.7% -2.2% -3.7% -0.1% 1.8% 2.4% 2.8% 3.0% 2.9% 3.1% 2.4%

Low . . . . 1.4% -0.2% 0.4% 1.2% 0.9% 1.3% 0.7%

Latvia EV_TCZ High . . . . 3.7% 6.3% 8.3% 8.0% 6.2% 7.5% 5.8%

Base . -2.3% 2.9% -3.2% 2.7% -0.2% 2.4% 2.8% 1.8% 2.9% 2.3%

Low . . . . 1.9% -3.3% -1.3% -1.5% -0.5% 0.1% -1.5%

Lisbon FIR LP_TCZ High . . . . 7.1% 5.5% 5.4% 4.4% 4.2% 4.6% 4.3%

Base 1.7% -1.0% 2.6% 6.4% 6.7% 3.3% 2.6% 2.7% 2.6% 3.1% 2.0%

Low . . . . 6.3% 0.8% 0.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1.2% 0.5%

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Annual Growth 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Lithuania EY_TCZ High . . . . 2.1% 7.1% 9.7% 9.2% 9.3% 9.9% 8.3%

Base 6.4% 8.0% 9.5% 12% 0.8% 4.0% 5.0% 6.6% 6.2% 6.2% 4.5%

Low . . . . 0.1% 0.8% 2.3% 4.2% 2.4% 3.2% 2.4%

Luxembourg EL_TCZ High . . . . 11% 6.4% 5.4% 4.4% 5.2% 6.0% 4.2%

Base 2.1% -1.0% 6.8% 4.4% 10% 4.1% 4.1% 3.3% 4.1% 4.4% 3.7%

Low . . . . 9.7% 1.5% 2.6% 1.7% 2.6% -1.6% 2.5%

Malta LM_TCZ High . . . . 11% 11% 9.0% 7.4% 7.3% 8.1% 8.7%

Base . . 9.7% 5.6% 11% 5.1% 7.4% 4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 3.8%

Low . . . . 10% 1.8% 1.3% 5.0% 2.1% 2.9% 1.6%

Netherlands EH_TCZ High . . . . 2.4% 1.4% 3.3% 3.8% 2.7% 3.3% 1.0%

Base 7.3% 0.0% 1.7% 3.4% 2.4% 1.4% 3.3% 3.7% 2.6% 3.1% 1.0%

Low . . . . 2.1% 1.3% 0.4% 1.8% 1.4% 1.9% 1.3%

Norway EN_TCZ High . . . . -0.6% 4.3% 2.2% 1.5% 1.5% 6.9% 3.7%

Base 7.5% 5.6% 5.4% -2.9% -0.8% 3.2% 2.1% 2.0% 1.4% 2.9% 2.1%

Low . . . . -1.1% 1.7% 0.8% 1.4% 1.5% 1.5% 3.9%

Poland EP_TCZ High . . . . 8.3% 9.4% 7.1% 8.0% 7.5% 7.0% 6.1%

Base 3.3% 11% 0.7% 4.4% 7.8% 6.7% 5.8% 5.8% 5.6% 5.9% 4.7%

Low . . . . 7.3% 3.0% 2.5% 3.2% 3.1% 2.6% 1.7%

Romania LR_TCZ High . . . . 8.7% 5.4% 7.5% 6.2% 6.5% 7.6% 7.8%

Base -4.9% 22% 4.8% 6.4% 8.2% 3.1% 4.4% 3.8% 4.1% 5.3% 4.3%

Low . . . . 7.7% 1.2% 1.9% 1.7% 2.2% 2.4% 2.0%

Slovakia LZ_TCZ High . . . . 24% 10% 7.5% 8.3% 11% 7.6% 8.6%

Base -3.3% -12% -1.7% -3.4% 23% 6.3% 4.5% 4.8% 4.9% 9.3% 4.5%

Low . . . . 22% 3.5% 1.9% 2.7% 2.8% 3.0% 2.4%

Slovenia LJ_TCZ High . . . . 12% 6.4% 12% 6.0% 6.3% 11% 4.5%

Base 0.4% -11% 1.4% -1.7% 12% 5.4% 2.1% 4.6% 8.1% 4.1% 4.4%

Low . . . . 11% 2.6% 1.2% 2.4% 0.9% 2.1% 3.9%

Spain LE_TCZ High . . . . 3.3% 5.0% 4.5% 4.8% 4.7% 3.8% 4.1%

Base 4.1% -6.6% -3.5% -7.0% 2.9% 3.1% 2.3% 3.4% 3.2% 3.3% 2.6%

Low . . . . 2.5% 0.6% 1.0% 1.9% 1.6% 1.8% 0.0%

Sweden ES_TCZ_A High . . . . 2.2% 5.3% 3.3% 3.8% 3.3% 4.1% 2.8%

Base 13% -0.2% 5.7% 5.5% 1.9% 3.7% 2.1% 2.3% 1.8% 2.3% 1.7%

Low . . . . 1.7% 1.0% 0.0% 1.1% 0.6% 1.1% 0.4%

Switzerland LS_TCZ High . . . . 2.8% 4.8% 4.7% 4.9% 4.3% 4.2% 4.1%

Base 6.9% 1.2% -0.9% 4.0% 2.4% 3.4% 3.3% 3.7% 3.4% 3.4% 2.5%

Low . . . . 2.0% 1.4% 1.1% 2.1% 1.9% 1.8% 1.1%

UK EG_TCZ_B High . . . . 3.7% 2.7% 3.5% 3.1% 2.7% 5.6% 3.9%

Base 3.9% -0.1% 2.5% 3.3% 3.5% 2.3% 1.7% 2.4% 2.5% 3.0% 1.9%

Low . . . . 3.3% 1.1% 1.4% 1.6% 1.0% 1.9% 1.3%

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Annex 10 References

1 EUROCONTROL Seven-Year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2015-

2021, STATFOR Document 553, February 2015. 2 Methods of the STATFOR Seven-Year Forecast, STATFOR Document 518, Draft v0.6,

October 2014 3 STATFOR Interactive Dashboard at www.eurocontrol.int/statfor/sid

4 GDP Elasticities for the STATFOR Forecast, STATFOR Document 499, Draft v0.4,

November 2013. 5 High-Speed Train Model Recalibration, STATFOR Document 551, Draft v0.1, November

2014. 6 EUROCONTROL Industry Monitor, the EUROCONTROL bulletin on air transport trends

Issue N°173. May 2015. 7 EUROCONTROL Industry Monitor, the EUROCONTROL bulletin on air transport trends

Issue N°175. September 2015. 8 EUROCONTROL, Seven-Year IFR Flight Movements and Service Units Forecast: 2015-

2021, STATFOR Doc553, February 2015.

EUROCONTROL SEVEN-YEAR FORECAST … Manager Flight Movements and Service Units 2015-2021 EUROCONTROL...

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