EU Enlargement

Situation: November 2001

What states are knocking on the EU door

• Estonia• Lithuania • Latvia• Poland• Slovakia• Czech Republic• Slovenia• Hungary• Romania• Bulgaria• Turkey• Malta• Cyprus

‘state-of-play’

• France's foreign minister, Hubert Vedrine: suggestion - EU might consider simultaneously bringing into the EU all the twelve candidates currently negotiating their accession – Big bang!

• Hungary’s PM, Orban: the entire EU enlargement exercise could be put at risk if too many candidates with different levels of readiness joined the EU at the same time.

The Copenhagen Criteria (1)

• States must prove their respect for democratic principles, the rule of law, human rights and the protection of minorities

The Copenhagen Criteria(2)

• States must have functioning market economies able to cope with the competitive pressures and market forces of the EU– Agriculture: Enlargement will double the EU's

agricultural workforce and increase by 50% the EU's arable land area.

The Copenhagen Criteria (3)

• States must be able to take on all the obligations of membership, including incorporating into their national legal system all the laws agreed by the EU

– sheer technical slog of converting some 80,000 pages of EU law into domestic legislation is enormous – and states must try to ‘enact’ these laws

– Most controversial of all: EU environmental regulations and labour standards for health and safety.

• Says the EIU's Barysch: "Small companies that are left over from central planning and are operating fairly efficiently now would be put out of business by the introduction of full labour standards. Strict environmental standards would cause sectors such as steel and chemicals to lose competitiveness."

The ‘acquis’: EU regulations

• Fear: the EU's heavy-handed bureaucracy and its onerous regulations could stifle the entrepreneurial spirit that has been unleashed in their countries since the fall of communism.

A viewpoint from the ‘Economist’

The issues for the EU

• The EU budget: 96 billion euro– CAP and Structural Funds take 80%– How do the applicant states fit into this

scenario

• Free movement of labour - thorny issue

Applicant states: their view

• EU money: – promise of EU membership bringing in additional billions in direct and portfolio

investment that is transforming countries such as Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic.

– a conservative estimates that it will be running at 10 billion euro a year, or, 2 – 3 % of GDP

• Public Support:– Poland's accession to the EU has fallen to 49.6 percent from nearly 62 percent last

year, according to a recent poll carried out for Taylor Nelsen Sofres by the Czech institute Factum.

– The share of those supporting EU enlargement fell from 62.9 to 55.7 percent from last year

• The poll, based on a 12,042 sample in 11 Central and Eastern European countries, showed support to be the strongest in Slovenia, Bulgaria and Slovakia, and the weakest in Estonia. The share of those supporting EU enlargement fell from 62.9 to 55.7 percent from last year. mwjb 8 November issue of Gazeta Wyborcza p. 20

–

Commission view: November 2001

• Prodi: full EU members in time for European Parliament elections due in June 2004. – good news for Poland, Hungary, the Czech

Republic, Slovakia, Slovenia, the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania and the Mediterranean islands of Cyprus and Malta.

Applicant states: problems

• Corruption

• Fraud

• Trafficking ( women, drugs, )

• Protection ( minorities)

Challenges and problems

• The big problem in bringing eastern European countries into the EU is: the desire for harmonization is taking precedence over the need for flexibility.– The EU insists the applicants adopt the acquis

wholesale, – the new entrants desire to be a part of every EU

programme going, regardless of its merits.

How the east Europeans shape up

Database

                                                                    

Germany

• Germany: challenges:– In the east, in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Brandenburg, and Saxony--the

Lander bordering Poland--support for enlargement is extremely low. Only one out of three residents in the region is in favor of the move

– Wages in Poland are as much as six times lower than in Germany • Germany and Austria pressed for an elective seven-year ban on the movement

of labor from new EU member states. – free competition in the service sector could have grave implications for

eastern Germany's already battered construction industry. • Germany : the opportunities:

– Germany's trade with Eastern and Central Europe accounts for about 10 percent of its total foreign trade, falling just $1 billion short of trade with NAFTA counties.

Estonia

• from Soviet annex to Nordic tiger economy

Area:  45,227 square km

Population: 1,439,197 (January 2000), only 31.8 per square km

Capital city: Tallinn (population 408,329 or 28% of total population)

Currency: kroon (EEK). Fixed exchange rate: 8 EEK = 1 DEM; 1 euro = 15.65 EEK

Taxsystem: 26% flat income tax, 18% VAT. Reinvested corporate profit is tax free

Language:  Estonian

Head of State:  President, elected for 5 years. Current President: Mr. Lennart Meri. Next election: September 2001

Parliament:  The Riigikogu. A unicameral parliament of 101 members. Term: 4 years. The last elections were held in March 1999

Administrative division: 

15 counties, 205 rural municipalities and 42 towns

LatviaFull name: Republic of LatviaFounded on:November 18, 1918Population: 2.37 millionArea:  64 589 sq. kmTotal length of national border: 1 800 kmBorders with other countries:Estonia, Russia, Belarus, LithuaniaCapital city: Riga (population: around 800,000)Currency:lats (LVL). One lats consists of 100

santims. The lats has been the currency since May 1993

Official language:  LatvianHead of State:  President, who is elected by the

Saeima for a period of 4 years. The President promulgates laws, appoints the Prime Minister and performs representative functions. The current presiden, Ms Vaira Vike-Freiberga, was elected in July 1999.

Type of government: Democratic, parliamentary republic. Legislative power

is in the hands of a single-chamber parliament – the Saeima, composed of 100 deputies. Parliamentary elections take place every 4 years. The last parliamentary elections took place in the autumn of 1998.

Application for EU accession: 27 October 1995

Lithuania• Area: 65,300 square km

Population:3.7 million80 percent of the population is Lithuanian, 11 percent are Polish and 7 percent are Russians.

• Dominant religion: Roman Catholic• Capital city:Vilnius• Currency: Litas (1 litas=0.25USD)• Official language: Lithuanian

(lietuviu)• Political system: Republic. New

constitution ratified in October 1992. The country is governed by the President, supreme legislative body Seimas (a unicameral Parliament of 141 members) and the Government

• Application for EU accession: 8 December 1995. Accession negotiations started in February 2000

Slovenia• Country profile• Population: Just under two million inhabitants• Capital city: Ljubljana• Currency:Slovenian tolar - SIT

• GDP per capita:• 16.100 PPS (2000 data), which equals 71% of EU

average. Slovenia is one of the most prosperous candidate countries for EU membership. The GDP of Slovenia is above Greece and close to that of Portugal.

• Official language: Slovene (slovenščina)

• Head of State: • The President of the Republic represents Slovenia and is

the commander-in-chief of the armed forces• Legislative bodies: • The Republic of Slovenia is a Parliamentary democracy

with the National Assembly (90 MPs) and the National Council (40 counsellors). The government, composed of Prime Minister and the cabinet, is the executive branch

Slovenia (2)

• GDP per capita is very close to Portugal's and approaching double that of the next wealthiest east European applicant, the Czech Republic.

HungaryCountry profile

                                                                                                                                                          

Czech Republic• Area78,866km2• Population10.3 million• Neighbours (border in km)Germany (646),

Poland (658), Slovakia (215), Austria (362)mm• Density131 inhabitants per km2mm• Distribution66% urban population, 34% rural

populationmm• Ethnic profileCzech (94%), Slovak (3%),

Polish (0.6%), German (0.5%), Roma (0.3%), Hungarian (0.2%), Others (1%)

• LanguageCzechReligionAtheist (39.8%), Roman Catholic (39.2%), Protestant (4.6%), Orthodox (3%), Other (13.4%)

• ife expectancyAverage: 74.1 - 70.8 years (male), 77.7 (female)

• GDP/capita12,498 ECU (PPS) in 1999 (PPS) (Eurostat)59% of EU-15 average (1999)

• Currency1 Crown or CZK = 100 halire - 1 crown = c.37 EURO (January 2001)

• General Government budget2000 Budget: c. EURO 32 billion

• Government deficit9,5% of GDP (2001 forecast)Public debt35% if GDO (estimate 2001)Trade with EUSurplus: 0.1

Country profile

                                                                                                    

Population10 millionArea93,036 km²Density107.8 inhabitants per km²Distribution63.7% urban population, 36.3% rural populationNeighboursAustria (356 km border), Slovakia (679), Ukraine (137), Romania (453), Fr Yugoslavia (164), Croatia (355), Slovenia (102)Ethnic profileHungarian (96,6%) – 13 officially recognised and registered minorities: German, Gypsies, Croats, Slovaks, Romanians, Bulgarians, Greeks, Polish, Armenian, Ruthens, Serbs, Ukrainian – especially protected by Constitution as a component of the Hungarian state; right of representation in Parliament enshrined in the Constitution and the 1993 Minority ActLanguageHungarianReligionRoman Catholic (65%), Reformed (20%), Lutherans (4%), Orthodox (2.7%), Jewish (1%)Life expectancyAverage: 71.35 years, 67.1 years (male), 75.6 years (female).GDP p.c. in 2000In Purchasing Power Standard: 11,700 Euro(app. 52% of EU average)Real GDP growth: 5.2%Inflation rate10.0 % annual average in 2000Unemployment rateEnd-year 2000: 6.4% (ILO definition)Currency1 Forint or HUF = 100 Fillér1 Euro = HUF 260; HUF 1.000 = Euro 3.8General gov. budget balance2000 Budget Deficit: 3.7% of GDPCurrent account balanceIn 2000: -1,620 million Euro = 3,1% of GDPForeign debtGross foreign debt: 25,562 million EuroDebt export ratio: 82.5%Trade with EU in 2000Exports to the EU: 75,1 as % of the totalImports from the EU: 58,4 as % of the total

Hungary

Slovakia

Poland

Area: 312,685 square kmPopulation: 38,654 million inhabitants,

of which 98% are ethnic PolesOfficial language: PolishConstitution: New Democratic Constitution passed in

1997Administrative division: 1999: 16 provinces (wojewodztwo), 308

counties (powiat) and 2.489 communes (gmina)

Application for EU accession: Submitted to the European Commission

in 1994

Romania

Country profile(Under construction)

Turkey

• Turkey still does not meet the Copenhagen political criteria.– Turkey’s national

programme for the adoption of the acquis set the scene for a major constitutional reform package,

Malta

Cyprus

Bulgaria

• Country profile• Area: • 110,993 sq. km• Population:• approximately 8 million citizens• Capital city:• Sofia• Borders:• To the north with Romania and the

Danube river, to the east is the Black Sea, to the south are Turkey and Greece, and to the west - the FYR of Macedonia and Yugoslavia.

• Form of State: • Parliamentary republic

December 2001 – Enl. schedule

• DecemberSunday 2nd to Thursday 6thBelgian deputy foreign affairs minister Annemie Neyts visits Cyprus, Turkey, the Czech Republic and Hungary on her pre-Laeken tour of the candidate countries

• Monday 3rdEuropean External Relations Commissioner Chris Patten visits Romania

• Monday 3rd, Tuesday 4thEU-Czech joint parliamentary committee meets, Brussels

• Tuesday 4th, Wednesday 5thCommission Director-General for Enlargement Eneko Landaburu visits Latvia

• Thursday 6th-Friday 7thEuropean Employment and Social Affairs Commissioner

Economist, Nov. 22 2003