eqspertis azri

aleqsandre rondeli

irani da saqarTvelo - urTierTobebis daaxloebis perspeqtivebi

ÓÀØÀÒÈÅÄËÏÓ ÓÔÒÀÔÄÂÉÉÓÀ ÃÀ ÓÀÄÒÈÀÛÏÒÉÓÏ ÖÒÈÉÄÒÈÏÁÀÈÀ ÊÅËÄÅÉÓ ×ÏÍÃÉGEORGIAN FOUNDATION FOR STRATEGIC AND INTERNATIONAL STUDIES

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2014

publikacia daibeWda amerikis SeerTebuli Statebis saelCos finansuri mxardaWeriT.

redaqtori: rusudan margiSvili

teqnikuri redaqtori: artem meliq-nubarovi

saavtoro uflebebi daculia da ekuTvnis saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobebis kvlevis fonds. werilobiTi nebarTvis gareSe wignis arc erTi nawili ar SeiZleba gadaibeWdos nebismieri,

maT Soris, eleqtronuli an meqanikuri formiT.

© saqarTvelos strategiisa da saerTaSoriso urTierTobaTa kvlevis fondi 2014 weli

ISSN 1512-4835 ISBN 978-9941-0-6496-8

irani da samxreTi kavkasia

sami regionuli supersaxelmwifo _ ruseTi, TurqeTi da irani _ sxvadasxva „stiliTa“ da instrumentiT cdilobs samxreT kavkasiaSi momZlavrebas da gabatonebasac ki. ruseTi SantaJsa da daSinebas mimarTavs da samxreT kavkasiis TiToeul saxelmwifoSi ekonomikuri da kulturuli saSualebebis gansxvavebul „receptebs“ iyenebs, TurqeTi ufro ekonomikur instrumentebs eyrdnoba, xolo irani aqamde nakleb ambiciebs amJRavnebda da politikurad bolo dros gaaqtiurda, umTavresad _ saqarTvelosTan dakavSirebiT. rogorc riCard ruso aRniSnavs, regionSi dominirebisTvis ruseTi, irani da TurqeTi ormxrivi „ekonomikuri da strategiuli proeqtebis ganviTarebiT saerTo da sasicocxlo interesebis“ Camoyalibebas cdiloben.1

irani mniSvnelovani regionuli supersaxelmwifoa, romelsac sakmao ambiciebi aqvs axlo aRmosavleTSi, centralur aziaSi, avRaneTsa da pakistanSi, Tumca ara _ samxreT kavkasiaSi. udavoa, rom irans usafrTxoebis interesebi ufro axlo aRmosavleTsa da centralur aziaSi, aseve avRaneTsa da pakistanSi aqvs, vidre samxreT kavkasiaSi, Tumca bolo dros sul ufro ikveTeba samxreT kavkasiis mniSvneloba. sxvadasxva mizezisa da, pirvel rigSi, azerbaijanis gamo es erTerTi mniSvnelovani sakiTxia TeiranisTvis. irani aqamde ar aqtiurobda samxreT kavkasiaSi, magram nelnela izrdeba regionSi misi ekonomikuri da politikuri saqmianoba. rogorc Cans, Teirans miaCnia, rom regioni met yuradRebasa da ufro proaqtiur politikas saWiroebs, raTa SesaZlebeli iyos samxreT kavkasiidan momavali safrTxeebis ganeitraleba da regionSi arastabiluri usafrTxoebis garemoTi sargebloba.

rogorc Tomas de vaali ambobs, „dasavleT samyaros irani TiTqos mokveTili hyavs, magram ase ver moiqcevian iranis mezobeli qveynebi, romelTac am did da Zlier saxelmwifosTan yoveldRiuri saqmiani urTierTobebi aqvT“.2

miuxedavad imisa, rom iransa da ruseTs samxreT kavkasiasTan dakavSirebiT msgavsi damokidebulebebi aqvT, mo

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hamedreza jalili ambobs, rom „moskovma isargebla iranis izolaciiT, pirvel rigSi regionSi gaimyara pozicia da iranis xarjze zrunavs sakuTar interesebze“.3

bevri iraneli samxreT kavkasiis nawils dakargul iranul miwad aRiqvams. iranis saskolo saxelmZRvaneloebSi aseT winadadebasac ki SexvdebiT: „aRmosavleTi kavkasia, anu saqarTvelo, irans ekuTvnoda, magram iranis Sahebi dasustdnen da ruseTis imperatorebma maT es miwebi waarTves“. TeiranSi gamarTuli erTerTi mrgvali magidis dros iraneli swavlulebi saqarTvelos „iranuli saxelmwifoebis konfederaciis“ yofil wevrad moixseniebdnen. iranelebi azerbaijansac dakargul iranul miwad miiCneven. samxreT kavkasiaze iranelTa aseTi tradiciuli Sexedulebis gaTvaliswinebiT sulac ar aris gasakviri, rom irani Zalian mgrZnobiarea samxreT kavkasiaSi araregionuli aqtorebis (evropelebis, amerikelebis) qmedebebis mimarT. amrigad, unda movelodeT iranis negatiur reaqcias samxreT kavkasiis saxelmwifoebis nebismieri mcdelobisas ganaviTaron mWidro urTierTobebi, gansakuTrebiT usafrTxoebis sferoSi, dasavleTis qveynebTan da kerZod, aSSsa da israelTan. swored amitom irani saqarTvelos, rogorc korneli kakaCia aRniSnavs, aSSis regionuli interesebis gamo „dasavleTiT mowamlul“ reJimad aRiqvams.4

irani 2008 wlis agvistos ruseTsaqarTvelos omis Semdeg grZnobs, rom ruseTi kvlavac mTavari moTamaSea regionSi. amitom irani kidev ufro met sifrTxiles iCens, rom regionSi ruseTis interesebis winaaRmdeg ar wavides. irans aRizianebs TurqeTis mzardi gavlena samxreT kavkasiaSi, radgan moelis, rom somxeTTurqeTis urTierTobebis gaumjobesebisa da erevnis e.w. „dasavluri veqtoris“ gaZlierebis SemTxvevaSi Teirans regionze zemoqmedebis bevrad susti berketi darCeba. aRiqvams ra azerbaijans, rogorc TavisTavad problemas, umTavresad iranSi mravlad mcxovrebi azerbaijanelebis mimarT potenciuri iredentizmis gamo, Teirans aseve seriozulad aSfoTebs dasavleTis zegavlenis neli, magram SesamCnevi zrda samxreT kavkasiaSi. is kmayofili iqneboda, regionis qveynebSi ufro mZlavri antidasavluri ganwyobebi rom daenaxa. es mudmivad igrZnoba iranis ofi

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cialur pirebTan da diplomatebTan saubrisas, romlebic yovelTvis iyeneben SesaZleblobas da axseneben samxreT kavkasielebs, rom evropelebi da, gansakuTrebiT, amerikelebi regionis Tvis „stumrebi“ da „ucxoebi“ arian, rom isini modian da midi an, irani ki aris regionuli Zala, uaxloesi mezobeli da megobari saxelmwifo, romelic mzad aris daxmarebis gasawevad.

somxeTsa da saqarTvelos or regionSi _ afxazeTsa da samxreT oseTSi _ ruseTis mniSvnelovani samxedro Zalis ganlageba moskovs did upiratesobas aniWebs TurqeTTan da iranTan SedarebiT. es ori qveyana erTmaneTs samxreT kavkasiaSi grZelvadiani interesebis gamo eqiSpeba. igive SeiZleba iTqvas maT damokidebulebaze ruseTis mimarT, romelic kvlav cdilobs aRidginos batonoba regionSi. ar SeiZleba ar daveTanxmoT stiven larabisa da alireza naders imaSi, rom kavkasiaSi „ruseTi mudmiv Zalad rCeba da misi politikuri gavlena bevrad aRemateba iranisa da TurqeTis gavlenas“.5 cxadia, orive _ iranica da TurqeTic _ sakmaod mgrZnobiarea regionSi nebismieri araregionuli aqtoris moqmedebis mimarT. or „supersaxelmwifos“ (ruseTsa da irans) gansakuTrebiT eSinia regionSi aSSisa da natos samxedro Zalis SesaZlo gamoCenisa.

2008 wels saqarTveloSi SemoWriT, saqarTvelos ori separatistuli regionis damoukidebel saxelmwifoebad aRiarebiT da kavkasiis mTebis samxreT ferdobebze samxedro Zalis gaZlierebiT ruseTma geopolitikuri viTareba Secvala regionSi. ruseTi, romelic eswrafvis samxreT kavkasiaSi dominirebis SenarCunebas, xolo am gegmebis gansaxorcieleblad saqarTvelo sakvanZo qveynad miaCnia, cdilobs saqarTveloSi kulturul da ekonomikur SeRwevas, radgan saqarTveloSi 2012 wels momxdar xelisuflebis cvlilebas, mTel regionze Tu ara, sul cota, saqarTveloze sakuTari gavlenis aRdgenis SesaZleblobad xedavs. irani ar iqneba kmayofili saqarTveloSi ruseTis gabatonebiT, Tumca misTvis saqarTveloSi ruseTis yofna ufro misaRebia, vidre aSSisa an natosi. irans Zalian aSinebs saqarTvelos natoSi SesaZlo integracia.

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saqarTvelos mimarT iranis moqmedebebi

bolo wlebSi irani Seecada Tavi mniSvnelovan regionul moTamaSed warmoeCina da Tavis energomatareblebze mezoblebis damokidebuleba gaezarda. iranisaTvis navTobi da bunebrivi airi zewolis yvelasTvis cnobili instrumentebia, magram misi eleqtroenergiis warmoebis seqtoris gafarToeba SedarebiT axali fenomenia. irani ukve axorcielebs eleqtroenergiis eqsports pakistansa da indoeTSi, aseve avRaneTSi, somxeTSi, eraySi, siriasa da TurqeTSi.6 es politika aZlierebs iranis rols regionSi da mas evropul energoproeqtebze naklebad damokidebuls xdis.

jerjerobiT irani ar TamaSobs seriozul rols samxreT kavkasiis energetikis sferoSi. azerbaijanma SeZlo iranis mniSvnelovani metoqe gamxdariyo regionSi. erTxel, saqarTvelosTvis Zalian kritikul momentSi, 2006 wlis zamTarSi, iranma saqarTvelos bunebrivi airi mihyida, Tumca sakmaod maRal fasad da es mxolod erTeuli epizodi iyo. irans mxolod somxeTTan aqvs „stabiluri urTierTobebi“.

samxreT kavkasiairanis urTierTobebsa da maT formirebaze gavlenas axdens ara mxolod regionuli konteqsti, aramed ruseTiranis, aSSiranis, evropairanis urTierTobebi. samxreT kavkasiis samive qveyana garkveulwilad am urTierTobebis mZevali gaxda.

irans kvlav aklia resursebi imisaTvis, rom regionis wamyvan ekonomikur aqtorad iqces. iranis strategia samxreT kavkasiaSi jerjerobiT ufro TavdacviTi da TanamSromlobiTi xasiaTisaa, vidre damaSinebeli da konfrontaciuli. rogorc sergei markedonovma 2009 wels aRniSna, „iranis strategia kavkasiaSi“ saTanado yuradRebis gareSea datovebuli.7

iranma Tavisi politika regionis mimarT mxolod axlaxan gaaaqtiura, Tumca mniSvnelovani Sedegi jer ar miuRia. „irans, rogorc TurqeTs, ar SeuZlia msxvili investiciebis dabandeba da iranuli ekonomikis bolo 20 wlis savalalo mdgo mareoba ver iqneba is modeli, romlis gadmoRebasac kaspiis saxelmwifoebi moisurvebdnen“.8 es iTqva 1999 wels, Tumca zustad Seefereba iransamxreT kav kasiis dRevandel ekonomikur urTierTobebs.

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irani tradiciulad mxars uWers saqarTvelos teritoriul mTlianobas da, rogorc s. markedonovi aRniSnavs, „SeiZleba ganixilebodes moskovis oponentad saqarTvelos eTnopolitikuri konfliqtebisadmi misi midgomebis gamo. islamuri respublika ar aris mzad aRiaros afxazeTisa da samxreT oseTis damoukidebloba“.9 amis mizezebi naTelia _ Tavad irani mravaleTnikuri saxelmwifoa, romelsac aSinebs separatizmi.

xazi unda gaesvas Teiranis Zalian pragmatul politikas regionSi, romelic gansxvavdeba iranis xelisuflebis religiuri da radikaluri ritorikisgan. eqspertebis TqmiT, yarabaRis konfliqtSi Teirani qristiani somxebis mxares dgas da ara muslimebis, romlebic ZiriTadad azerbaijaneli Siitebi arian.10

ar unda dagvaviwydes, rom aSSis „gadatvirTvis“ politika ruseTTan da aSSis strategiuli interesebis gadanacvleba msoflios sxva regionebisaken samxreT kavkasiis patara saxelmwifoebs, gansakuTrebiT saqarTvelos (misi mkafio prodasavluri poziciis gamo!), ubiZgebs ifiqros ormxrivi urTierTobebis ufro gaaqtiurebaze mezoblebTan, kerZod ki _ iranTan. 2008 wels iransaqarTvelos urTierTobebSi incidenti moxda, rodesac saqarTvelom iraneli moqalaqe daakava da aSSs gadasca. Teiranma es Seuracxyofad da antiiranul qmedebad miiRo. Sedegad, iranma or weliwadze meti xniT faqtobrivad gayina urTierToba TbilisTan. viTareba Seicvala da ormxrivi urTierTobebi gaumjobesda mxolod saqarTvelos sagareo saqmeTa ministris iranSi vizitis Semdeg, 2010 wlis ianvarSi.

saqarTvelom scada pozitiuri nabijebis gadadgma iranis mimarTulebiT; ZiriTadad amisTvis iqna SemoRebuli iranTan uvizo mimosvla, aseve baTumSi gaixsna iranis sakonsulo.

2010 wlidan, rodesac saqarTvelom iranelebis Tvis uvizo reJimi SemoiRo, iranuli vaWrobis da turizmis maCveneblebi saqarTveloSi geometriuli progresiiT gai zar da. „importi 1,590%ze metiT avarda da 99,4 milioni aSS dolari Seadgina, iraneli turistebis ricxma ki saqarTveloSi 318,38%iT imata da wliur 89,170 turists miaRwia“.11 saqarTvelosa da irans Soris vaWroba 118,5 milioni dolariT gai

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zar da 2012 wels.12 absolutur maCveneblebSi es cifrebi ar aris maRali. magaliTad, saqarTvelos vaWrobam TurqeTTan 2012 wels 1,3 miliardi aSS dolari Seadgina.

saqarTveloSi iranuli biznesis swrafi zrdac aRiniSna, magram maTi wili 2012 wels registrirebuli 43,907 biznesis mxolod 3,3%s Seadgens.13 2012 wels iranuli investiciebi saqarTveloSi mxolod naxevari milioni aSS dolari(!) iyo.

mkacri saerTaSoriso sanqciebis pirobebSi irani sul ufro met yuradRebas aqcevs samxreT kavkasiel mezoblebs, bolo wlebSi ki _ saqarTvelos. 20102013 wlebSi iranma gaafar Tova ekonomikuri aqtivoba saqarTveloSi, ramac vaSingtonis SeSfoTeba gamoiwvia, rom irani saqarTvelos Tavisi ekonomikuri saqmianobebis diversificirebisTvis iyenebs, raTa sanqciebis gavlena Seamciros.

zogan, mediaSi, gamoCnda Tbilissa da Teirans Soris ekonomikuri urTierTobebis gadaWarbebuli Sefasebebi. absoluturi cifrebis mixedviT, iranis ekonomikuri aqtivoba saqarTveloSi jerjerobiT umniSvneloa, xolo iranis saerTo zegavlena saqarTvelos ekonomikaze minimaluria.

dasavlur mediaSi gamoqveynebulma zogma statiam interesi gaaRviva saqarTveloSi iranis aqtivobis mimarT.14 vaSingtonma SeSfoTeba gamoTqva iranis mcdelobaze, Tavidan airidos sanqciebi. saqarTvelom, romelsac SeerTebuli Statebi yvelaze mniSvnelovan dasavlel partniorad da umsx vi les ucxoel donorad miaCnia, iranisgan distanicirebis nabijebi gadadga, kerZod, 2013 wlis 1 ivlisidan iraneli moqalaqeebisTvis gauqmda uvizo mimosv la.15 SeiniSneba saqarT velodan iraneli biznesmenebis gasvla. mohamad davarma, qarTuliranuli biznesTanamSromlobis centris xelmZRvanelma, medias uTxra, rom 1,700ma iranelma biznesmenma ukve datova saqarTvelo, bevri iranuli angariSi gayinulia saqarT velos bankebSi, daixura bevri erToblivi qarTuliranuli proeqtic.16

iranis reaqcia uaryofiTi iyo da man saqarTvelo dasavleTis, gansakuTrebiT aSSisa da israelis, maameblobaSi daadanaSaula. udavoa, rom saqarTvelos qmedebam uaryofiTad imoqmeda iranTan urTierTobebze. kavkasia is geografiuli regionia, romelic SeiZleba erTgvar geopoli

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tikur „bermudis samkuTxedad“ iqnes ganxiluli sami patara qveynisTvis, romlebic iq mdebareobs. aSS Sors aris, evropa ar aris sakmarisad Zlieri, xolo irani, ruseTi da TurqeTi iqve arian.

saqarTvelosa da irans Soris bizneskontaqtebis gaZliereba SeiZleba danaxuli iyos, rogorc Tbilissa da Teirans Soris urTierTobebis gaumjobesebis bunebrivi procesi. es urTierTobebi arasdros yofila Zalian mWidro da miuxedavad ormxrivi ekonomikuri urTierTobebis bolodroindeli gaaqtiurebisa, politikuri urTierTobebi praqtikulad imave doneze rCeba.

aSSis SeSfoTebas imis Taobaze, rom Teirani saqarTvelos sanqciebis Tavidan asarideblad iyenebs, TbilisSi gagebiT moekidnen da saqarTvelos mTavrobam ganacxada, rom igi „srulad icavs gaeros uSiSroebis sabWos sanqciebs iranTan dakavSirebiT, romlebic savaldebuloa gaeros yvela wevri qvyenisa Tvis“.

daaxloebis sakmaod didi SesaZleblobebi

bolo wlebSi sul ufro meti iraneli Camovida saqarTveloSi, samwuxarod, iranSi wamsvleli saqarTvelos moqalaqeTa ricxvi umniSvneloa da unda gaizardos.

irans bevri ramis Cveneba SeuZlia qarTveli vizitorebisTvis. udavoa, rom kulturuli kavSirebi am or qveyanas Soris kidev ufro ganviTardeba, magram es ver moxerxdeba or qveyanas Soris ufro aqtiuri ekonomikuri urTierTobebis gareSe. irani sakmaod seriozuli mezobelia da saqarTveloiranis ekonomikurma urTierTobebma SeiZleba ufro didi masStabi miiRos.

cvlilebebma TeiranSi da iransa da dasavleTs Soris diplomatiuri urTierTobebis garkveulma gaumjobesebam SesaZloa ufro xelsayreli pirobebi Seqmnas saqarTveloiranis urTierTobebis Semdgomi ganviTarebisTvis.

daskvnis saxiT SeiZleba iTqvas, rom saqarTvelos politika regionSi ar niSnavs qveynis mier sakuTari strategiuli kursis _ evropul da evroatlantikur struqturebSi gaerTianebis _ Secvlas. upirvelesi mizani igive rCeba, magram regionul mezoblebTan urTierTobebis gaumjobeseba da

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ganviTareba da regionul usafrTxoebasa da stabilurobaSi sakuTari wvlilis Setana iranTan karg mezoblur urTierTobebsac gulisxmobs.

gamoyenebuli literatura

1 Richard Rousseau, “The Struggle for Influence between Russia, Turkey and Iran in the South Caucasus,” Europe’s World, Autumn 2011, #19. ix.: www.europesworld.org/New English/Home_old/Community Posts/tabid/809/postl

2 Thomas de Waal, “Iran’s Relieved Neighbors in the Caucasus,” June 26, 2013. Accessible at: http://carnegie.ru/eurasiaoutlook?fa=52215

3 Mohammad-Reza Djalili, ”Iran and the Caucasus: Maintaining Some Pragmatism,” The Quarterly Journal, 1, #3, 2002, gv. 51.

4 Kornely K. Kakachia, “Iran and Georgia: Genuine Partnership or Marriage of Conve-nience?,” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo #186, September 2011, gv. 2.

5 F. Stephen Larrabee, Alireza Nader, “Turkish-Iranian Relations in a Changing Middle East,” RAND, Santa Monica, 2013, gv. 21.

6 Shabnam Mirsaedi-Glossner, “Iran’s Flourishing Regional Influence,” Science and Diplo-macy, July 15, 2013. Accessible at: www.sciencediplomacy.org/print/119

7 Sergei Markedonov, “The Caucasus Approaches of Iran: Main Priorities and Challeng-es,” August 5, 2013. Accessible at: www.rieus.gr/research-areas/global-issues/middle-east-studies/995-the-caucasus-a

8 Richard Sokolsky, Taya Charlick-Paley, “NATO and Caspian Security: A Mission too Far?,” RAND, Santa Monica, 1999, p. 48.

9 Sergey Markedonov, “The Realists in Tehran,” National Interest, May 4, 2012. Accessible at: http://nationalinterest.org/print/commentary/the-realists-tehran-6878 8/5/2012

10 Brenda Shaffer, Introduction: The Limits of Culture in The Limits of Culture: Islam and Foreign Policy, Brenda Shaffer (Editor), Cambridge, 2006, pp. 16-17 and Brenda Shaffer, “The Islamic Republic of Iran: Is It Really?” in The Limits of Culture: Islam and Foreign Policy, Brenda Shaffer (Editor), Cambridge, 2006, pp. 229-234.

11 Molly Corso, “Georgia: Is Tehran Trying to Use Tbilisi to Evade Sanctions?,” Eur-asianet, July 15, 2013. Accessible at: www.eurasianet.org/print/67253 8/16/2013

12 saqarTvelos statistikis erovnuli samsaxuri, Tbilisi, 2013.

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13 Molly Corso, dasax. naSr.

14 Iran, Georgia: Washington Worries about Warming Ties between Tehran and US Ally,” Los Angeles Times, November 5, 2010; Benoit Faucon, Jay Solomon, Farnaz Fassihi, “As Sanctions Bite, Iranians Invest Big in Georgia,” Wall Street Journal, June 20, 2013.

15 2013 wlis 1 ivlisidan saqarTvelos mTavrobam calmxrivad gaauqma 45dRiani uvizo mimosvlis wesebi iranTan, romelic 2011 wlis 1 ianvridan moqmedebda.

16 Михаил Вигнанский, “Иранские бизнесмены бегут из Грузии,” Известия, April 10, 2013.

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