Environmental Problems, Their Causes, and the Issue of Sustainability

APES Lecture

August 2006

“We are the guests, not the masters, of nature and must develop a new paradigm for development and conflict resolution

based on the costs and benefits to all peoples and bound by the limits of nature

herself rather than by the limits of technology and consumerism”

---M. Gorbachev

Fig. 1-10, p. 14

Populationgrowth

Unsustainableresource use

Poverty Not including theenvironmental costsof economic goodsand services in theirmarket prices

Trying to manage andsimplify nature with toolittle knowledge abouthow it works

Causes of Environmental Problems

Population Growth Drives Environmental Problems…

Or so say the environmentalists!

In order to understand human population dynamics, we need to better understand the difference between linear and exponential growth

Exponential vs. Linear Growth

A quantity increases by a fixed percentage of the whole in a given timeStarts off slowly but after a few doublings it grows to enormous numbersRule of 70%: 70%/growth rate=doubling time

N(t)=N0ert

What is increasing exp?Pop growth, resource and energy use, CO2 levels, premature extinction of plants/animals, pollution, poverty, area of deserts, trash, clearing of rain forests….etc etc

A quantity increases by a constant (slope) amount independent of the whole

Constant growth

Y=mx + b

Exponential vs. Linear Growth

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70

10

750

1,000

1,250

$70,000

$1,024,000

Linear growth(saving $1,000

Per year)

Exponential growth($1,000 invested at 10%

Per year interest)

Th

ou

san

ds

of

do

llar

s

Years

Human Population Milestones

World Population reached1 billion in 1804

2 billion in 1927 (123 years later)3 billion in 1960 (33 years later)4 billion in 1974 (14 years later)5 billion in 1987 (13 years later)6 billion in 1999 (12 years later)

World Population May Reach7 billion in 2013 (14 years later)8 billion in 2028 (15 years later)9 billion in 2054 (26 years later)

For much of recorded time

human populations remained relatively

stable as various checks and balances kept growth flat.

What caused the rapid increase in

population since the Industrial

Revolution???

Key Population Trends to 2050…

The population will be bigger2.6 B projected to be added in next 45yrs exceeds total population of world in 1950Fastest growing regions are Africa, Asia, and Latin/Central AmericaIn 1950, developing countries were twice population of developed; by 2050 they will be 6X the population!

The population will be slower growingWorld growth rate 1.2-1.3%; down from peak of 2.1%

The population will be more urbanUrban pop will swell from 3B to 6B by 2050

The population will be older20th century last time young outnumbered old

Demographic Projections: The good and the bad….

Good news/Bad news:Rate of natural increase of world dropped ~40% since 1963 (from 2.2% to 1.2%)

• But during this time population still doubled from 3.2B to 6.4BBetween 2005 and 2050 the population will triple in:

• Afghanistan, Burundi, Chad, Congo, East Timor, Liberia, Mali, Niger, and Uganda (among poorest nations on earth)

Virtually all population growth in next 45yrs is expected to happen in developing countries

Half the global increase will take place in: (order)• India, Pakistan, Nigeria, Dem. Rep. Of Congo, Bangladesh, Uganda,

the USA, Ethiopia, and ChinaVirtually all pop. growth will be in URBAN areas

• Poor countries will have to build a city of 1M people/wk for next 45 years!!!Many developed countries will shrink!

• This too will cause challenges…like what?

Population Estimates by 2050(based upon assumptions…)

High

Medium

Low

12

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

21950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

High11.7 B

Medium9.1 B

Low7.7

Year

Po

pu

lati

on

(b

illio

n)

MED=If downward Trend in FR

Continues

Constant 1.2%

LOW=If .5 less

children per woman

Where is the population growth?

World total

Developingcountries

Developedcountries

Po

pu

lati

on

(b

illi

on

s)

12

11

10

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

1950 2000 2050 2100Year Fig. 1.6, p. 9

The Demographic Divide in a Nutshell

1.6 children/woman2050, 1 in 3 over 6051 countries will lose pop. b/w now and 2050

Germany, Italy, Japan, Russia

2.9 children/woman2050, 1 in 5 over 60Growth rate is greatest in the poorest countries in the worldVirtually all pop growth will take place in developing countriesUrban population will double from 3B to 6B

Wastes around coastal cities could pose big challengeInfrastructure?

Developed Developing

The Population Debate…The Elephant in the Room…

Can the world provide an adequate standard of living for 3 billion more people without causing widespread environmental damage?

What if everyone in China and India lived like an American, could nature handle it?

Is the earth already overpopulated?What measures should be taken to slow growth?

Instead of asking what is the carrying capacity, some believe we should be asking what the optimum sustainable population of the earth might be…Should people be allowed to have as many children as they want?If we all agree to lower the growth rate even more, how might this be accomplished (without coercion or moral depravity?)What is your opinion on these issues?

Annual Population Growth Rate

<1%

1-1.9%

2-2.9%

3+%Data notavailable

Annual worldpopulation growth

Worldwide= Currently 1.1 to 1.2% per year

Who is overpopulated?Developed Countries

Japan, US, GB, CanadaGNP=above $10k/yrHigher standard of living per capita

• Extensive industry and use of technology

• Rely mostly upon nonrenewable energies

1.2 Billion (20%)• 85% of wealth• Greater disposable income

more $ spent on luxury items

Use 88% of resources• Ave US citizen consumes

35X as much as a citizen in India

• Water usage 1400gal/pp/dayGenerate 75% of pollution and wasteLow fertility rate

Developing CountriesAfrica, Asia, etcGNP=>1K/yrLower standard of living per capita

• Limited technology less industry

• Use more renewable resources /energies

4.9 Billion (80%)• 15% of wealth• $ spent primarily on

necessitiesUse 12% of resources

• Water usage 12gal/pp/day1 million people added every 5 days; ~9k/hr

• Huge percentage of the population under 15

• Means built in momentum to increase population

High fertility rates (why?)

Some statistics about the divide…

The avg US citizen uses 159 gallons of water per day; 3 Billion people live on 25 gallons/day

With only 5% of the world’s population, Americans consume 24% of the world’s energy, 20% of all metals, 30% of all paper, and generate 75% of all toxic waste

On average, an American consumes as much energy as 2 Japanese, 6 Mexicans, 13 Chinese, 31 Indians, 128 Bangladeshis, or 370 Ethiopians

Distribution of Wealth

GNP per capita, 1998

Low income (Under $1,000)

Middle income ($1,000–$10,000)

High income (Above $10,000)

Fig. 1.5, p. 9

Fig. 1-4, p. 9

Percentageof World's

Developed countries Developing countries

Population

Populationgrowth

Wealth andincome

Resourceuse

Pollutionand waste

19

81

0.1

1.5

85

15

88

12

75

25

Global Outlook

The nebulous concept of Sustainability…

A sustainable society: “…meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs…”—Brundtland Commission of UN (1987)…Implies that humankind must live off the “income” generated by the “stocks” of remaining natural “capital”

In other words, nature’s “capital” should be used no more rapidly than it can be replenished Living off the “interest” of natural capitalRates of “harvest” should not exceed rates of “renewal”

This is one of the most important CONCEPTS that we will pursue throughout the year. The ultimate question for our planet is how do we become sustainable?

Resources as natural capitalIf properly managed, renewable and replenishable resources are forms of wealth that can produce “natural income” indefinitely.Just like with “tragedy of the commons” we could lose all of our investment…Or we can invest and manage our resources wisely.

NOTE: resources are dynamic—their value changes based on our societal needs

Ex: uranium only became valuable with the advent of nuclear technology

Sustainable Yield (for resources)

The rate of increase in natural capital, ie how much we can exploit without depleting the original stockSY=(annual growth + recruitment)-(annual death + emigration)

SY=(total biomass(b) at time t + 1) – (total biomass(b) at time t)

Example: A population of 100 chickens, 12 die, 20 are born. What is the sustainable yield (How many can we use and keep our flock healthy?)

How do we measure progress towards complete sustainability?

Ecological Footprint

I=P*A*T

Living on “interest” vs.

depleting your “capital”

I=PAT

Fig. 1-13, p. 16

Developing Countries

X X =

X X =

X X =

Developed Countries

Population (P)Consumption per

person (affluence, A)

Technological impact per unit of consumption (T)

Environmental impact of

population (I)

Ecological Footprint

World Average= 5.8 Acres (2.3 hectares)World Average= 5.8 Acres (2.3 hectares)2.5 acres (1 hectare) in developing countries2.5 acres (1 hectare) in developing countries3.8 acres (1.5 hectares) in China6.2 acres (2.5 hectares) in Mexico2.0 acres (0.8 hectares) in Ethiopia5.0 acres (2.0 hectares) in Peru/Philippians24 acres (9.6 hectares) in United States24 acres (9.6 hectares) in United States22 acres (8.8 hec) in Canada/New Zealand12 acres (4.8 hectares) in Japan13.2 acres (5.3 hectares) in England

What are some of the things that go into this “footprint”?Average amount of productive land and shallow sea needed by each person (or COUNTRY!) for water, housing, energy, food, transportation, commerce, and waste absorptionInverse of carrying capacity

10X10X

Ecological Footprint

Overshooting Carrying CapacityECOLOGICAL FOOTPRINT

World Average= 2.3 hectares per global citizen

Ecological Reality: 2.0 TOTAL with only 1.7 hectares per capita are available for human use.

Our planet currently overshoots capacity by ~20%

• And this is a conservative number that assumes biodiversity can be preserved on only 0.3 hec/capita

For every person in the world to reach present US levels of consumption would require 4 more 4 more planet earthsplanet earths

Poverty—what is the connection to Environmental Problems?…

Short term survival needs deplete resources • Most of these resources are renewable like trees, water,

Poor forced to live in marginal/polluted areas or take jobs with unhealthy working conditionsHave children as a form of economic security

Richest 20% have 85% wealth; the poorest 20% have 1.3% of wealth

Net wealth of 3 richest people = GDP of poorest 47 countriesIt would take ~$40B/yr to eliminate poverty (this represents less than 0.1% of world’s income)

Fig. 1-11, p. 14

Lack ofaccess to

Number of people(% of world's population)

Adequatesanitation

Electricity

Clean drinkingwater

Adequatehealth care

Enough fuel forheating and

cooking

Enough foodfor good health

2.4 billion (37%)

2 billion (31%)

1.6 billion (25%)

1.1 billion (17%)

1.1 billion (17%)

1.1 billion (17%)

Some Harmful Results of Poverty

1 in 6 people

Fig. 1-6, p. 10

Global life expectancy doubled since 1950

Infant mortality cut in half since 1955

Food production ahead of population growth since 1978

Air and water pollution down in most developed countries since 1970

Number of people living in povertydropped 6% since 1990

Life expectancy 13 years less indeveloping countries than indeveloped Countries

Infant mortality rate in developing countries over 9times higher than in developedcountries

Harmful environmental effects ofagriculture may limit future foodproduction

Air and water pollution levels inmost developing countries too high

Half of world's workers trying tolive on less than $2 (U.S.) per day

Economic DevelopmentTrade-Offs

Economic Development

Good News Bad News

How is the Status of Women Related to Env. Issues?

Studies show that women tend to have fewer and healthier children and live longer when they:

Are educated, have access to jobs, & live in societies where they are not oppressed

Women make up 50% of population but…Make up 70% of world’s poor; 66% can not read/writeDo almost all domestic and child rearing

60-80% of work growing food, getting H2O66% of all hours worked; 10% of world’s incomeOwn less than 2% of world’s land

Many do not have right to own land, inherit estates, or borrow money…Many are completely at the mercy of their husbands….a version of modern day slavery

ResourcesTypes: Economic, Human, Environmental (aka Natural Capital)Perpetual (sunlight—billions of years!)

NOT counted as “natural capital”

Natural Resources/Natural Capital can be:Renewable (hours to decades to replenish)

• Forests, grasslands, plants/animals, fresh air, soil

Non-renewable (exist in fixed quantity)• Coal, natural gas, fossil fuels, metals, minerals, salt

IB students must also know that “replenishable” refers to NON-LIVING things (air, water, ozone layer)

Common Property (Tragedy of the Commons)Sustainable Yield

Highest rate at which a renewable resources can be used INDEFINATELY without reducing its available supply

Types of Resources

Fig. 1.11, p. 11

Resources

Perpetual Nonrenewable

Renewable

Freshair

Freshwater

Fertilesoil

Plants andanimals

(biodiversity)

Directsolar

energy

Winds, tides,

flowing water

Fossilfuels

Metallic minerals

Non- metallic

minerals(iron,

copper, aluminum)

(clay, sand,

phosphates)

Renewable ResourcesNormally replenished by natural processes

Depends on “solar engine” to be renewed…Self producing and self maintaining

Stock not necessarily depleted with useEssentially inexhaustible on human time scale

Tidal, biomass, solar, wind, geothermal energyTrees, organisms, soil, topsoil, H2O, O3, O2

IB folks:An abiotic (non-living) renewable resource is called a Replenishable resource (water, ozone, etc)

Idea of Sustainable Yield applies only to renewables….what would be an example?

Non Renewable ResourcesNot replenished by natural processes within a useful timescaleExist in fixed quantity within earth’s crust

DepletedDepleted with useEnergy (oil, gas, coal, etc)Metallic minerals

Fe, Cu, Al, Zn, Ag etcCan be recycled

Non-metallicSalt, clay, sand (too costly to recycle)

Becomes Econ. DepletedTime

Pro

du

cti

on

ra

te o

f re

so

urc

e

Area under curveequals the totalamount of the

resource. Economic depletion(80% used up)

Common Property Resources and the Tragedy of the Commons…

Any resource which is shared by a group of people but “owned” by no one person

The atmosphere, the ocean, fisheries, water on public property, national forests, etc etc

ToC is a metaphor used to illustrate the conflict between individual interests and the common good…(stop big)—start here…

The Logic of The Tragedy of the Commons…The cause of any tragedy of the commons is that when individuals use a public good, they do not bear the entire cost of their actions. If each person seeks to maximize their individual share of the resource, s/he ignores the negative costs borne by others. This is an example of an externality.The best (non-cooperative) short-term strategy for an individual is to try to exploit more than his share of public resources.

Assuming a majority of individuals follow this strategy, the theory goes, the public resource gets overexploited.Overfishing and the decline of ocean resources is a classic example….

Globalization: An Integrated World

Social Economic

Environmental

SustainableSolutions

Environmental

Social Economic

Traditional decision making Decision making in asustainable society

One way to help…

An environmental impact assessment (EIA) is an assessment of the possible positive or negative impact that a proposed project may have on the environment, together consisting of the natural, social and economic aspects.

The purpose of the assessment is to ensure that decision makers consider the ensuing environmental impacts when deciding whether to proceed with a project.

CurrentEmphasis

SustainabilityEmphasis

Pollution cleanup

Waste disposal(bury or burn)

Protecting species

Environmentaldegradation

Increased resourceuse

Population growth

Depleting anddegrading naturalcapital)

Pollution prevention(cleaner production)

Waste prevention& reduction

Protecting wherespecies live(habitat protection)

Environmentalrestoration

Less wasteful (more efficient)resource use

Population stabilization bydecreasing birth rates

Protecting natural capitaland living off the biological interest it provides

Fig. 1-14, p. 18

Sustainability Revolution