Energy Transitions BSG Conf - larsclausen.dk
Transcript of Energy Transitions BSG Conf - larsclausen.dk
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ENERGY TRANSITIONS
• Energy Transitions over time • Oil & Gas – 100 years of constant progress • The Danish Model • The Danish Roadmap to CO2 neutrality • Partnering Models – PPP models
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A continuous journey to better lives!
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2030 2050
ENERGY TRANSITIONS OVER TIME
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ENERGY TRANSITIONS
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A continuous journey to better lives!
4,5 billion years ago Earth Created
315.000 years ago First man
10.000 years ago 5 million people
1542 500 million people
Today 8.000 million people
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ENERGY TRANSITIONS OVER TIME
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Energy is the only Universal Currency; it is necessary to get anything done Vaclav Smil
Industrialization Energy Transition to Coal • GDP or Economic development 4 x faster than y
1400 -1800
1800–1940
Globalization Energy Transition to Oil & Gas • GDP or Economic development 5 x faster than year 1800-1900
1920–2030
Sustainalization Energy Transition to Renewables • Economic development faster and less energy intensive
2000–2100
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GLOBAL PRIMARY ENERGY CONSUMPTION BY SOURCE
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GDP PER CAPITA, 1800-2016
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LIFE EXPECTANCY
• Global Life exp over 200 years
• Red 25 years • Orange 40 years • Yellow 50 years • Light green 60 years • Green 70 years • Blue 80 years+
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OIL & GAS - 100 YEARS OF CONSTANT PROGRESS
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Globalization –moving to Oil & Gas
• From First Oil in Pennsylvania 1859 to Oil Bonanza in USA
• Standard oil 1879, followed by IOC’s the 7 sisters, Shell, BP, OPEC, NOC’s – A New world Order
• The Automobile, Electric light bulb, Oil as primary fuel for transport, Power production et al, accelerated the journey to better lives or the exponential GDP growth.
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WORLD ANNUAL OIL PRODUCTION AND PEAK
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2020
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GDP – RELATIVE GROWTH !
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OIL – TECH – GDP - BETTER LIVES
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GLOBAL ANNUAL TOTAL CO₂ EMISSIONS & CLIMATE CHANGE
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1n 2019 Avg global 4,7 tCO2/cap, 1,5 c ! 2,9 in 2030 ! 0 in 2050 acc to Paris Climate accord
ANNUAL TOTAL CO₂ EMISSIONS
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DISTRIBUTION
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CHANGE IN PER CAPITA CO2 EMISSIONS AND GDP, U.S.
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CARBON DIOXIDE EFFECT
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Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
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CO2 EMISSIONS• World 40 Bn T CO2 • WORLD 2019; 5 T CO2/
cap
• PARIS ACCORD <1,5 C • 2030 2,9 T CO2/cap • 2050 0,1 T CO2/cap
CURRENTLY 1,5 C IN 2040
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CLIMATE SCENARIOS – FAST CHANGE IS NEEDED
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CONTINUOUS CO2 GROWTH !
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THE DANISH ENERGY/RENEWABLES MODEL
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Oil imports ! Oil Crisis ! Independence !Oil prod + Coal Imp! Renewables
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THE DANISH ENERGY MODEL
• Before 1970 total dependance on Foreign Imports • Oil Embargoes 1970’ies ! leads to DK Roadmap of
Energy diversity and ultimately independance • Oil Exploration & Production accelerated & first oil on
stream in 1973! Net export oil from 1995 – 2007 • 1970 – 1980, start of onshore Windturbines ! 8000
Turbines Today • 2020 Parliament stops 8th licencing round and ends oil &
gas no later than 2050. • Maximising Interconnecting
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A two step change ! Oil, Gas & coal ! Renewables
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THE DANISH ENERGY/RENEWABLES MODEL
• 1991/5 First Offshore Windturbine parks 5 MW • 2002 Largest offshore Windturbine Park Horns Rev 1, 160 MW • 2008 Political deal – Wind- & Energy efficiency programmes • 2013 Windturbine park Anholt 400MW onstream. • 2019 New Climate deal – 0% CO2 in 2050 & - 70 % in 2030 • 2019 Horns Rev 3 Onstream, 400 MW • 2020 Goverment detailed Climate Plan • 2021 The worlds First Energy Island approved – 35 Billion USD • 2021 Kriegers Flak Onstream, 600 MW
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A two step change ! step 2 ! Renewables & Climate
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THE DANISH REGULATORY MODEL
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Customer
DSO
CO2 0
TSO
Ptx
Price
Supply Security
iParliament
MinistryRegulatorAgency
Governance Model
Energy
UK
Europe
Energy Producers/ Suppliers
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THE DANISH ROADMAP TO CO2-NEUTRALITY
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1973/1979 Energy Independence – Renewables & interconnecting
First Energy island
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THE DANISH ROADMAP TO CO2-NEUTRALITY• In 2019, DK parliament pass the new Climate Law.
• Zero % CO2 in 2050, - 70% CO2 reductions in 2030.
• In 2020 Climate roadmap agreed.
• Extensive catalogue of initiatives impacting all Danes.
• 13 Climate partnerships to advise and deliver the detailed roadmap.
• Two Energy Islands agreed 2021, 1 New buildt 3-10GW + PtX, 2033, price 35 Billion USD
• Wide Danish stakeholder support, by population, industry, Finace, Unions, think tanks, Interest groups etc.
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ENERGIØERWORLD’S FIRST ENERGY ISLANDS The North Sea: 3 GW offshore wind by 2033, later at least 10 GW.
The Baltic Sea: 2 GW offshore wind by 2030.
NEW OFFSHORE WIND FARMS
ENERGY ISLAND
ONSHORE CONNECTIONS, ALTERNATIVES
NL, BE, DE
DENN
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10-15 GW
ENERGI ISLANDS OR HUBSHUB 100 KM OR MORE TO LAND
ALTERNATING CURRENT
DIRECT CURRENT
ALTERNATING CURRENT
DIRECT CURRENT HYDROGEN
GREEN FUELS
HYDROGEN
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PARTNERING MODELS NEEDED
• DK 2050 Climate plan will exceed 100 billion USD • The Energy Island is priced at 35 Billion USD • The Energy Island will be a Public Private Partnership • The DK Energy Industry is Internationally strong. • The DK Pension sector, > 550 Billion USD - offers 55
Billion USD investment to the DK Climate plans. • DK will make use of Public Private Partnerships
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Industry, Finance and Society involved – In ‘Public Private Partnerships’
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2030 2050
WE CAN LIVE BETTER LIVES SUSTAINABLY ! WELCOME SUSTAINALIZATION !