Emergency Logistics in Anti-bioterrorism Systems Lindu Zhao, Ph.D. Institute of Systems Engineering...

Emergency Logistics in Anti-bioterrorism Systems

Lindu Zhao, Ph.D.

Institute of Systems Engineering Southeast University

P. R. China

1. Background of the Research1. Background of the Research2. Analyze the problem from the 2. Analyze the problem from the viewpoint of systems engineering viewpoint of systems engineering 3. What can we do?3. What can we do?4. So far, we have accomplished 4. So far, we have accomplished that…that…5. Future work5. Future work

OutlineOutline

1. Background of the Research1. Background of the Research

911Anthrax mail

Ebola Marburg Hemorrhagic

fevers

SARS

Smallpox,Chorla … …

How to relieve?

Emergency Logistics in AmericaEmergency Logistics in America

• In 1990s, America began to invest lots of money to build and perfect their warning defense system of public health emergency, aiming to defense the potential terrorism attacks of biology, chemistry and radioactivity material at the height of state safety.


• MMRS (Metropolitan Medical Response System) is an important part, which played a

crucial role in the “9.11” tragedy and delivered

50 tons of medical materials to New York in 7 hours.


• In the bioterrorists’ attack of anthrax in October, 2001, the federal medicine reserve storage delivered a great deal of medical materials to local health departments.

• In 2002, America invested $1.1 billion to enlarge the federal medicine reserve and added the reserve storages from 8 to 12, which covered the whole country.


• Any domestic place can get the reserved vaccine, antibiotics, medicine (including disinfection facilities) and other emergency rescue materials in 12 hours.

• Besides, America invested $918 million to enlarge the medicine reserve of state and local health departments and developed the project titled NEME (National Emergency Medical Extranet).

Emergency Logistics in Other CountriesEmergency Logistics in Other Countries

• England, France, Italy and others have made anti-bioterrorism plans and established the anti-bioterrorism warning defense systems after “9.11” .

Emergency Logistics in ChinaEmergency Logistics in China

• How about China?• In 2003, the outbreak of SARS (Severe Acute

Respiratory Syndrome) in China disclosed the vulnerability of our system for emergency rescue materials reserve and emergency distribution.

Emergency Logistics in ChinaEmergency Logistics in China

• Till May 9th 2003, the State Department promulgated “Regulations of Responding Public Health Emergency”, and then, the system of emergency rescue materials reserve and distribution in China is to be regulated.

What’s the problem?What’s the problem?

• So, are we late?!

• Another question is: what should we do?

2. Analyze the problem from the 2. Analyze the problem from the viewpoint of systems engineeringviewpoint of systems engineering

• Keywords:

(1) Diffusion

(2) Coverage location

(3) Collaboration

Diffusion of the

biological virus

Covered by the emergency logistics

Covered by the emergency logistics

Diffusion of biological virus

• Bioterrorist threats are real. They have a huge influence on social stability, economic development, and people’s physical and mental health. Moreover, the influence is at a global scale.

Diffusion of biological virus

• Some scholars have used smallpox as a case and analyzed bio-terror response logistics. Their results show that the diffusion of the biological virus can be prevented in certain degree with vaccination or contact isolation.

An example…An example…

• Once a city is attacked by biological virus Once a city is attacked by biological virus (such as (such as smallpox, anthrax, botulin toxinsmallpox, anthrax, botulin toxin, , etc), it will construct a dangerous etc), it will construct a dangerous diffusion diffusion networknetwork, in which each person can be consi, in which each person can be considered as a node. The disease will diffuse to dered as a node. The disease will diffuse to another city when the person who has been another city when the person who has been infected moves from one place to another.infected moves from one place to another.

An example…An example…

diffusion networkdiffusion networkemergency logistics networkemergency logistics network

Cover the emergency demandCover the emergency demand

• The flow of the emergency relief materials in the emergency logistics network is driven by the dangerous source diffusion network, which has different structure from the general logistics network.

Different between the two logistics Different between the two logistics modesmodes

Logistics Logistics

Manufacturer Wholesaler Retailer Customer

People indisaster area

evacuation

isolation

Emergency Center Vaccine

Research

Fig.2 Emergency logistics network in the anti-bioterrorism systemFig.2 Emergency logistics network in the anti-bioterrorism system

Retailer

Fig.1 General logistics networkFig.1 General logistics network

Collaboration with the two networksCollaboration with the two networks

• So, the rule of the dangerous source diffusion, and the collaboration between the diffusion network and the emergency logistics network should be available during the construction of an anti-bioterrorism warning defense system.

A ChallengeA Challenge

• However, the reality is that we don’t even know what the virus will be and how to control it. Additionally, we have no effective vaccine during the initial response phase, for example, the case of SRAS.

3. What can we do?3. What can we do?

• Keywords:Keywords:

Diffusion Diffusion

CollaborationCollaboration

Emergency logistics networkEmergency logistics network

The rule of dangerous source The rule of dangerous source diffusiondiffusion

• Although the rule of dangerous source diffusion isn’t the major point in our research, it is the necessary part when analyzing the emergency demand.

• Models such as SEIR, SEIR-like, SEIRS, SIS etc, will enlighten us during the research.

The collaboration between the two The collaboration between the two networksnetworks

• The complex network models:The complex network models:

(1)The uniform network model(1)The uniform network model

a>a> rule network model rule network model

b>b> random graph model random graph model

c>c> small-world network model small-world network model

(2) scale-free network model. (2) scale-free network model.


• Formulate the dangerous source diffusion network and the emergency logistics network using the complex network models.


• Based on the characteristic that emergency logistics network is driven by the dangerous source diffusion network, we investigate the collaborative relationship between the two networks.

Optimization of the emergency Optimization of the emergency logistics networklogistics network

• Study the national emergency material storage model and optimize the distribution system model.


• Develop the emergency resource allocation model in single city and urban agglomeration.


• Analyze the integrated and dynamic models with both national emergency logistics network and city emergency logistics network.


• Study the collaborative dynamic model of the multi-level complex network

Simulation of the emergency Simulation of the emergency logistics networklogistics network

• Dynamic changes of the models mentioned above will be analyzed after the relative parameters are identified, and MATLAB will be used to obtain numerical simulation results.

Technical RouteTechnical Route

Modeling Optimization Simulation

Emergency Logistics Network Model

Indicators of emergency response system

Dangerous source diffusion model

Nonlinear Dynamics; Network Theory

Two Integrated Dynamic Optimization

Dynamic optimization of multilayer synergies

Witness simulation

Numerical simulation

Epidemical model

Optimization of

country system model

Optimization ofCity system model

＋

＋

Coordination

optimization of supply

system

Complex network model

Feedback

Research SignificanceResearch Significance

• First, it can increase our awareness of anti- it can increase our awareness of anti-bioterrorism, and provide examples for how to bioterrorism, and provide examples for how to enhance our ability to protect national security enhance our ability to protect national security and public safety. and public safety.

Research SignificanceResearch Significance

• Second, our research results in optimization and simulation of the network coordination mechanisms will be disseminated widely and provide potential applications in the domain of systems engineering and management.

We want to …We want to …

• 1） Analyze dynamic behavior of the dangerous source diffusion process, discuss its topology and marginal values, and establish randomness and definite dangerous source diffusion modiffusion modelsdels.

• 2） Analyze both time and spatial complexity of the dynamic multi-stage emergency logistics network.

We want to …We want to …

• 3） Establish a multi-level complex, coordinated network model to make sure continuous supply and smooth operation.

• 4） Develop a multi-level dynamic simulation algorithm for emergency logistics network.

4. So far, we have accomplished 4. So far, we have accomplished that…that…

• The Scheduling Problem of Emergency ResThe Scheduling Problem of Emergency Resource with ource with Pulse NeedPulse Need

• ZHAO Lindu, LIU Ming, DAI Dongfu. Research on Scheduling Problem of Emergency Resource with Pulse Need[J]. Journal of Southeast University, 2008, In press

We have accomplished that…We have accomplished that…

• Analysis of a Biological Dangerous Source Analysis of a Biological Dangerous Source Diffusing Dynamics Model with MigrationDiffusing Dynamics Model with Migration

• Qu Linbo, Han Ruizhu. Analysis of a Biology Dangerous Source Diffusing Dynamics MQu Linbo, Han Ruizhu. Analysis of a Biology Dangerous Source Diffusing Dynamics Model with Migration[J]. Journal of Southeast University, 2007, 37, S(II), 381-386odel with Migration[J]. Journal of Southeast University, 2007, 37, S(II), 381-386

Without vaccination With pulsepulse vaccination

We have accomplished that…We have accomplished that…• Analysis of the synergetic dynamics model Analysis of the synergetic dynamics model

of emergency rescue network in the anti-bioof emergency rescue network in the anti-bioterrorism systemterrorism system

• Li Zhi, Han Ruizhu, Liu Ming. Analysis of the synergetic dynamics model of emergency Li Zhi, Han Ruizhu, Liu Ming. Analysis of the synergetic dynamics model of emergency rescue network in the anti-bioterrorism system[J]. Journal of Southeast University, 2007, rescue network in the anti-bioterrorism system[J]. Journal of Southeast University, 2007, 37, S(II), 374-38037, S(II), 374-380

We have accomplished that…We have accomplished that…• Emergency Service Modes of Supply Chains with Emergency Service Modes of Supply Chains with

Replenishment SourcesReplenishment Sources

• WSWS

• Lindu Zhao, Li Sun. Emergency Service Modes of Supply Chains with Replenishment Sources[C]. 5th International Conference on Service Systems and Sernvice Management, Australia, 2008

Storage 1

Storage 2

Storage n

Storage 5

Storage 4

Storage 3

Storage network

…… Replenishment system



• WOSWOS


Storage 1

Storage 2

Storage n Storage 4

Storage 3

Storage network

……

Replenishment system




Curve of epidemic periods change with inoculation cycle

Curve of total cost of rescue change with inoculation cycle

We have accomplished that…We have accomplished that…• Emergency Service Modes of Supply Chains Emergency Service Modes of Supply Chains

with Replenishment Sourceswith Replenishment Sources

• Zhao Lindu. A Collaboration Model for Emergency Rescue Systems[C]. POMS 19th AnnuZhao Lindu. A Collaboration Model for Emergency Rescue Systems[C]. POMS 19th Annual Conference, USA, 2008 al Conference, USA, 2008

Storage 1

Storage 2

Storage n Storage 4

Storage 3

Storage network

……

Replenishment system


• A Replenishment Model for Emergency ReA Replenishment Model for Emergency Rescue Systemsscue Systems

• ZHAO Lin-du JIANG Yi-ping. A Replenishment Model for Emergency Rescue Systems[C]. The Third International Conference on Innovative Computing, Information and Control, 2008

The collaborative replenishment network of emergency rescue system

We have accomplished that…We have accomplished that…• Study on large-crowd dispersing in densely

gathering place by using crowd dynamics module

• Sun li, Zhao lindu. Sun li, Zhao lindu. Study on large-crowd dispersing in densely gathering place by using crowd dynamics module[J]. [J]. Journal of Safety and Environment, 2007,7(5):124-127.2007,7(5):124-127.

We have accomplished that…We have accomplished that…• Integrated and Dynamic Optimization Control of Integrated and Dynamic Optimization Control of

Multi-Level Anti-bioterrorism Emergency LogistiMulti-Level Anti-bioterrorism Emergency Logistics Networkcs Network

• Liu Ming, Zhao Lindu, Cheng Ting. Integrated and Dynamic Optimization Control of MLiu Ming, Zhao Lindu, Cheng Ting. Integrated and Dynamic Optimization Control of Multi-Level Anti-bioterrorism Emergency Logistics Network[J]. Journal of Southeast Univulti-Level Anti-bioterrorism Emergency Logistics Network[J]. Journal of Southeast University, 2007, 37, S(II), 361-366ersity, 2007, 37, S(II), 361-366

National emergency storage

City emergency center

Emergency demand points

Capacity and the costs


• Urban Emergency Coordination Based on SUrban Emergency Coordination Based on Social Networksocial Networks

• Lin Chong Zhao Lindu. Research on Urban Emergency Coordination Based on Social NLin Chong Zhao Lindu. Research on Urban Emergency Coordination Based on Social Networks[J]. China public security, 2008, In pressetworks[J]. China public security, 2008, In press

Accumulation processof emergency materialsCity social network

We have accomplished that…We have accomplished that…• Designing Optimal Emergency Logistics Networks

with Time Delay and Demand Uncertainty

• Wang Xinping Wang Haiyan. Designing Optimal Emergency Logistics Networks with Time Delay and Demand Uncertainty[C]. POMS 19th Annual Conference, USA, 2008

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 200

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000without rescue medicine

time t

S(t

),E

(t),

I(t)

S(t)

E(t)I(t)

0 5 10 15 200

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000with rescue medecine

time t

S(t

),E

(t),

I(t)

S(t)

E(t)I(t)

graph of epidemic diffusion model under situation that no emergency

measures are adopted

graph of epidemic diffusion model under situation that emergency

measures are adopted

More about our work …More about our work …

Author(s) PapersTing Cheng ， Lindu Zhao ，Ming Liu

Research on Collaborative Distribution Model of Emergency Logistics Hybrid Network

LIU Ming, ZHAO Lindu Research on Emergency Materials Mix-Collaborative Distribution Mode in System of Anti-bioterrorism[J]. Journal of system engineering, In press

LIU Ming, ZHAO Lindu Optimization of the Emergency Materials Distribution Based on Multiple Traveling Salesman Mode[J]. Chinese Journal of Management Science, In press

…… ……

Some other papers

5. Future work5. Future work

• Key points:Key points:

1>1> Further description of the diffusion rule.

2>2> Further research on how to optimize the emergency logistics network driven by biological virus diffusion.

3>3> Further research on how to collaborate and integrate the former two networks.

AcknowledgementAcknowledgement

• This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China

(70671021)

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Thank you for your attention!Thank you for your attention!

Emergency Logistics in Anti-bioterrorism Systems Lindu Zhao, Ph.D. Institute of Systems Engineering...

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