EgyE101 Transport Energy Demand 1-09-10

8/9/2019 EgyE101 Transport Energy Demand 1-09-10

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2Source:World Conference on Transport Research Society and the Institute for Transport

Policy Studies (2003) Urban Transport and the Environment: An International Perspective

World Energy Consumption


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World Transport Energy Consumption Forecasts

Source:World Conference on Transport Research Society and the Institute for Transport

Policy Studies (2003) Urban Transport and the Environment: An International Perspective


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World Motorization, 1960-2000


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World Motorization, 1960-2000

In Metro Manila, it was 59 cars per thousand persons in 1996Source: Metro Manila Urban Transportation Integration Study (JICA, 1999)


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Energy Intensity and Population Density


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Energy Intensity (Energy Use Per Transport Mode)


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Projected Energy Demand by Sector(In Million Barrels of Fuel Oil Equivalent, MMBFOE)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Year

EnergyDemand

Industrial Commercial Transport

Agriculture Residential

Philippine Energy Demand (Projected), 2004-2014

countys transport sector accounts for the second largest share of

the countrys projected energy demand (28.71%)

59.0 MMBFOE in year2004 (approximately 8.52 MTOE)

annual rate of increase: 4.5%


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Philippine Energy Consumption

oil consumption in 2005 was at 349,000 barrels per day

(Source: http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/cabs/Philippines/Full.html) total Philippine energy consumption = 25.2 MTOE in 2006

0.2% of world (Source: BP)

Final Energy Demand by Sector

Philippine Energy Plan, 2007-2014 (DOE, 2007)Sector Share (%) CY2005 CY2006

Transport 38.6% 37.2% (8.37 MTOE)

Residential 28.8% 28.4%

Industry 22.9% 24.0%

Commercial 8.5% 9.1%

Agriculture 1.4% 1.3%

TOTAL (MTOE) 23.2 22.5


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Final Energy Demand by Transport Sub-Sector, 2006Philippine Energy Plan, 2007-2014 (DOE, 2007)

Sub-Sector Share (%) MTOE

Road 79.3%

Air (International) 9.1%

Air (Domestic) 2.9%

Water 8.5%

Rail 0.1%

TOTAL 100% 8.37

Philippine Transport Energy Consumption


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Energy Situation

2006

Tot l : 11. TOE

Sour

:

OE

2007Indu ry,

13%gr u ure,

2%

Co er a5%

e den a ,8%

ran por ,72%

Indu ry,9% gr u ure,

1%Co er a ,

3%

e den a ,7%

ran por ,80%

Sector l ConsumptionofOil

Tot l : 13.0 TOE


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2005 Ene De and by Sect2005 Ene y De and by Sect

2006 Ene y De and by Sect2006 Ene y De and by Sect

2006 Ene y Cons pt on of2006 Ene y Cons pt on of

TransportTransport

Current ConditionsCurrent Conditions

Sour e: DOE, Ph pp ne Energy P an, 2007Sour e: DOE, Ph pp ne Energy P an, 2007


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BACKGROUND: Energy Consumption ofRoad Transport

Estimate of fuel consumed based on transport

demand model, Metro Manila (2007)Fuel G line iesel(li/day) (li/day)

daily , , . , , .

(li/year) (li/year)

estimated

yearly , , , . , , , .

Comparison with 2006 annual national consumption

of automotive diesel oil from the Department of Energy

Diesel oil: 39,058,397 bbl/year

(approx. 6,171,22,726 li/year)If Metro Manila accounts for 45% of diesel fuel sales,

Diesel oil consumed in 2006 in Metro Manila

2,777,052,027 li/year

(transport demand model estimate is still conservative)

*1,692,534 li/day

(26%)

consumed

by jeepneys


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Energy Demand Determinant for Passenger Transport

Source: Sigua (1986)

Energy demand determinants for passenger transport

Figure 1

Averagedistance of

trips

Number of

trips

Developmentof transport

modes

Movement percapita

(km/year)

Population

Modal

distribution

Energyintensity of

each mode

Total passengertraffic (passenger

km)

Passenger trafficaccording to

mode

Energy demand

for passenger

transport


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Source: DOTC-JICA (2004)Survey on Inter-Regional Passenger and

Freight Flow in the Republic of the Philippines

Transport Activity, Philippines, 1980 and 2004

Passenger-Kilometers Ton-Kilometers

(millions) (percent) (millions) (percent)

Road 60,659 94.0 22,479 70.7

Rail1 476 0.8 73 0.2

Sea2

1,113 1.7 15 0.1

Air 1,113 1.7 15 0.1

TOTAL 64,521 100.0 31,805 100.0

Mode Nu ber of r ips( hous nd)

Share Millionpassenger-k

Share

oad 1,551,894 98.31% 325,235 97.52%

Water 16,370 1.04% 4,307 1.29%

ir 6,224 0.39% 3,748 1.12%

ail 4,132 0.26% 227 0.07%

O L 1,578,620 333,517

Share of Annual Person Trips by Mode (Inter-Regional)

Transport Activity, 1980

Source: Sigua (1986)


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BFOE Conversion Table

Form of Energy Unit BFOE

Electricity 600

KWh

1.0000

Regular asoline 1 bbl 0.8470

Premium 1 bbl 0.8624

Kerosene 1 bbl 0.8798

Diesel Oil 1 bbl 0.9328

LP 1 bbl 0.6384

Aviation as 1bbl 0.8475Fuel Oil

Pitch 1 bbl 1.0058

PPC 1bbl 1.0197

Coal (10,000BTU/lb) 1MT 3.3500

Alcohol 1bbl 0.5561

Bagasse (50% moisture) 1MT 1.4400Coconut Oil 1bbl 1.0000

*bbl barrels *MT metric tons * KWh- Kilowatt-hours

Source: DOE Philippine Energy Plan, 2007-2014

based on fuel oil equivalent of 18,600 BTU/lb

BFOE = 0.1444 TOE/bbl


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Vehicle-kilo eters (veh-k s) per vehicle type == no. of vehicles for each vehicle type average kilo eters

of run per vehicle type

No. of passengers =

aver

age lo

ad factor

vehicle-kilo eters

No. of passengers average kilo eters per vehicle =

= passenger-k s. (pass-k s)

Methodology for Estimation of Energy Demand


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Fuel consumed = fuel consumption rate (km/li)

ave. kms per vehicle

for vehicles running on regular gasoline, fuel consumption can be determined by

Fuel consumed, in BFOE =fuel consumed, in L * 0.8470/1000 / 0.158987

for vehicles running on premium gasoline, fuel consumption can be determined by

Fuel consumed, in B

FOE =fuel consumed, in L

* 0.8624

/1000 / 0.15

8987

Methodology for Estimation of Energy Demand ROAD

for vehicles utilizing diesel oil,

Fuel consumed, in BFOE= fuel consumed, in L * 0.9328/1000/0.158987

may still disaggregate with respect to number of kilometers

driven in urban and non-urban traffic conditions


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Fuel Consumption Factors by Vehicle/Fuel Type(li/km)

FUEL CONSUMPTION FACTORS

Vehicle-Fuel Type Fuel onsumptionFactor (li/km)

Fuel conomy(km/li)

ar/ tility Vehicle 0.105 9.52

Tricycle (2-stroke) 0.036 28.00

Gasoline

Tricycle (4-stroke) 0.030 33.33ar/ tility Vehicle 0.094 10.58

Truck 0.207 4.83

Jeepney 0.190 5.27*

iesel

us 0.254 4.37

Source: MM Model, Metro Manila rban Transportation

Integration Study (JI A, 1999)*based on 2007 survey


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!v!

6

1iii FCFdFC

Estimation ofFuel Consumption

The daily fuelconsu ption ofa particular road link iscalculatedby:

where:

FC= fuelconsu ption perlink (liters)

di = travel distance of vehicle type i(veh-k ) perlink

FCFi = fuelconsu ption factor of vehicle type i(li/veh-k )


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Energy Demand ofRoad Transport

Estimate of fuel consumed based on transport

demand model, Metro Manila (2007)

Comparison with 2006 annual national consumption data

(Department of Energy)

Diesel oil: 39,058,397 bbl/year (approx. 6,171,22,726 li/year)

Gasoline: 39,058,397 bbl/year (approx. 3,561,920,874 li/year)

If Metro Manila accounts for 45% of fuel sales (assumed),

Diesel oil: 2.777 billion liters/year

Gasoline: 1.602 billion liters/year

el aily (li/ ay) nn al (li/year)

Gasoline 3,350,234 1.223 billion

iesel 6,466,097 2.360 billion

iodiesel

(1%)

64,661 23.601 million


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)(1

9328.0*

159

1*

)/(

)/(expBFOEnconsu ptioenergy

bbl

BFOEbbl

YrPedieselpric

yrPensesfuel!

Methodology for Estimation of Energy Demand RAIL

)(1

1*)( BFOEnconsu ptioenergy

Wh

BFOEWhnconsu ptioyelectricit !

Assumptions:

For the rail transport, fuel (diesel) price was averaged per year toobtain the fuel consumption of PNR.

The type of passenger-trains and freight-trains were assumed to

be the same.

In terms of amount of diesel fuel (e.g. PNR):

In terms of electricity consumed (e.g. LRT, MRT):


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)(on/)( LTransportAirofonsumptiFuelTotalairlineLnconsumptiofuel !7

)(1

8475.0*

159

1*)( BFOEnConsu ptioEnergy

bbl

BFOEbblnConsu ptioFuel !

Methodology for Estimation of Energy Demand AIR

airlineLnconsumptiofuelhrgal

hrgalrateflownhoursYrwkswkflights /)(

/264172.0

)/(**/52*/ !

gal / li

For the air transport, an average fuel consumption per annum isestimated and then proportioned to the number of air

movement for the years


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Methodology for Estimation of Energy Demand WATER

lack of information on fuel consumption rates of vessels

data used for energy consumption can be obtained from the

Department of Energy's computation which were based only

on petroleum products sales


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United States EU15 Japan

Source Emission % Emission % Emission %

Transport 488.1 31.7% 224.4 26.2% 68.1 21.5%

Other 1,051.8 630.9 248.2

TOTAL 1,539.8 855.4 316.3

Source: UNFCCC (From Urban Transport and the Environment: An International

Perspective, World Conference on Transport Research Society (WCTR)

and the Institute for Transport Policy Studies (ITPS), 2004)

CO2 Emission Levels in Developed Countries (2000), million tons carbon

TRANSPORT AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT

Germany United Kingdom France

Source Emission % Emission % Emission %

Transport 49.9 22.0% 33.6 23.9% 37.6 36.6%

Other 177.0 106.7 65.0

TOTAL 226.8 140.3 102.6


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TRANSPORT AND THE GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT

In 1990-2000 :

US and Japan: CO2

emissions from transport and other sectors

have continued to increase

Europe: CO2 emissions in transport are still increasing whileemission levels in other sectors have been on the decrease


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Strategiesto Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions(2)

Controlling Vehicle Demand and Use

requires the use of strategies that have

broad impacts on lifestyle and behaviour

most trips made do not require full-sized

cars and in developing countries, this isnot often the best option in cost or travel time

while non-car options are generally cheaper, they are usually

slower

vehicle purchase is a major investment: most of the costs of

vehicle ownership are fixed and are paid up front and do notvary significantly with vehicle use strong incentive for car use

private vehicles are usually the most GHG-intensive transportation

mode per passenger-kilometer

Source: Urban Transport and the Environment (WCTR-ITPS, 2004)


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Controlling Vehicle Demand and Use .. continued

increase in vehicle ownership use of public transport drops

often, government responds by consolidating routes and reduction

of frequency of services inconvenience to public transport users

more of these public transport users buy private vehicles

THE C CLE CONTINUES

increasing traffic congestion, emissions, transport energy use

and the need for costly, large-scale roadway infrastructure


MOTORIZATION predicts CARBON EMISSIONS FROMTRANSPORT

(vehicle ownership and carbon emissions per capita are 90% correlated)


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Technology Strategies

require fewer lifestyle and behavioural changes

technology strategies focus on: fuels, propulsion technology,

other vehicle attributes (ex. size) and use of ICT

Table 3.5.3 GHG Emissions from Transport Modes in Developing

Countries (ASSUMPTIONS):

based on typical vehicles operating in developing countries by 2020

small increases in energy prices, gradual adoption of existing and

state-of-the-art efficiency innovations include principal GHG and emissions from the full fuel cycle

(from well to wheels)



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averageoccupancy CO2

-equivalent emissions perpassenger-km (full energy cycle)

Car (gasoline) 2.5 130-170

Car (diesel) 2.5 85-120

Car (natural gas) 2.5 100-135

Car (electric) 2.0 30-100

Scooter (2-stroke) 1.5 60-90

Scooter (4-stroke) 1.5 40-60

Minibus (diesel) 12.0 40-60

Bus (diesel) 40.02

0-

30Bus (natural gas) 40.0 25-35

Bus (hydrogen fuel cell) 40.0 3-6

Rail Transit (Metro) 75% full 20-50

Table 3.5.3 GHG Emissions from Transport Modes in Developing Countries, 2020


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Discussion of Results in Table 3.5.3

collective modes of transport consume far less energy and generatefewerGHG emissions than private vehicles

vehicles powered by electricity and

fuel cells tend to generate considerably

fewerGHG emissions than those poweredby internal combustion engines

small scooters and motorcycles

have relatively low GHG emissions,

roughly comparable to rail transit and

jitney-type transit services

Source: Urban Transport and the Environment (WCTR

-ITP

S,

2004)

Toyota Prius (top); Toyota FCHV (bottom)


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Discussion of Results in Table 3.5.3

petrol tends to have the highest GHG emissions per kilometer ofthe commonly used fuels; natural gas tends to rank somewhat better,

diesel even better, and electricity best of all (except when coal is

mainly used to produce the electricity)

diesel

-associated GHG emissions are typically about 40% lower than

those associated with petrol because diesel engines are more efficient,

contains less energy per liter, and generate

emission with a lower global warming

potential than petrol engines

natural gas in place of gasoline, is likely

to generate 20% fewerGHG emissions



-ITP

S,

2004)


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Phase 2: Increasing the energy efficiency of conventional engines

vehicles manufactured in India and China and other developing

countries do not generally incorporate the most fuel efficient tech.

India: new small cars sold today is over8 liters/100 km; small

2-stroke motorcycles achieve over3 liters/100 km and buses over

34 liters/100 km. due to less power and reduction in size

car manufacturers are continuing to increase vehicle efficiency in

response to tightening fuel economy standards in Japan, voluntary

CO2

standards in Europe and high fuel prices in most countries



-ITP

S,

2004)


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Phase 3: Transition away from internal combustion engines to

electric drive propulsion technology electric drive systems: fuel cells, batteries and hybrid electric systems

would improve energy efficiency by at least 50%

these technologies are novel and expensive but costs are dropping

quickly and could be competitive with conventional ones

in 1-2 decades small numbers of battery-powered scooters

and cars are being sold in India, Taiwan

competitively priced hybrid

electric vehicles became available

internationally from Honda and Toyota

in 2000; others followed in 2004

fuel cell buses scheduled to be available in Shanghai and Delhi and

a number of cities in Europe and developing countries in 2002-03



-ITP

S,

2004)

Toyota Estima Hybrid


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Policy Optionsand Framework

5 Fundamental Strategies to Reduce GHG Emissions from Transport

1. Increase vehicle efficiency

2. Switch to less greenhouse gas-intensive fuels

3. Switch to less greenhouse gas-intensive transport modes

4. Decrease travel distance

5. Increase occupancy of vehicles

Each strategy can be pursued, using a variety of policies and investments,

which fall into 3 general categories:

1. Direct mandates through regulation

2. Market-based policy instruments, such as taxes, subsidies or

roadway tolls

3. Direct investment


-ITP

S,

2004)


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REFERENCES

Sigua, Ricardo G. (1986)Transport Energy Demand Analysis,

Paper presented to the National Training Course on Integrated

Planning at the National Engineering Center Conference Room,

May 26,1986.

World Conference on Transport Research Society (WCTR) and the

Institute for Transport Policy Studies (ITPS) (2004)Urban

Transport and the Environment: An International

Perspective

Department of Energy (2007)Philippine Energy Plan, 2007-2014

EgyE101 Transport Energy Demand 1-09-10

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