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8/9/2019 Economic Update : Tracking The World Economy,The Semiconductor Cycle And The Malaysian Economy -15/04/2010
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Prospects Of A Sustainable Global Economic Recovery Are Improving, But
The Recovery Will Likely Be Uneven
Tracking The World Economy,The Semiconductor Cycle And
The Malaysian Economy
Peck Boon Soon
(603) 9280 2163
Please read important disclosures at the end of this report.
Chart 3
US: Both Manufacturing And Services
Activ it ies Are Trending Up
Index
* Indices for the Institute for Supply Management (ISM),
formerly known as the NAPM
ISM manufacturing index*
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
05 06 07 08 09 10
➤
ISM non-manufacturingindex*
➤
Chart 4
US: Factory New Orders Bouncing Back
Strongly, Point ing To A Pick-up In
D e m and
% yoy
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Chart 2
OECD Leading Indicator Points To
Sustained Economic Expansion In The
Months Ahead
% 12-mth annualised rate of change
U S➤
China
➤
Japan ➤
Euroarea
➤
TotalOECD
➤
Chart 1
Global Manufactur ing And Serv ices
Activ it ies Continued To Trend Up
Index
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
05 06 07 08 09 10
P M IManufacturing
P M IServices
➤
➤
Malaysia
• • • •
PP
7767/09/2010(025354)
MARKETDATELINE
15 April 2010
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ECONOMY IN CHARTS2
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Chart 9
US: The Fed Wil l Gradually Unwind Its
Quantitat ive Easing Pol icy
US$bn (Total Assets Of The Fed)
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
07 08 09 10
Chart 10
US: Core Inflat ion Rate Is Trending Lower,
Raising Concerns Over
Disinf lat ionary Pressure
% yoy
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
CoreC P I
➤
TotalC P I
➤
Chart 8
US: Home Sales Showing Signs Of Weakness
But May Not Pose A Major Drag To The
Economy
% yoy
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
New homesales
➤
Existing homesales
➤
Chart 6
US: Consumer Spending Heading Up,
Underpinned By A Gradual Improvement In
Employment
% annualised
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
(Personal consumption expenditure)
Chart 5
US: Retail Sales On A Recovery Path
% yoy
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Autosales
➤
Non-autosales
➤
Total retailsales
➤
Chart 7
US: Recrui tment P ick ing Up And
Unemployment Rate Ho lding Stable
(‘000) %
-1000
-800
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Non-farm payroll(LHS)
➤
Unemploymentrate (RHS)
➤
Employment in temporaryhelp services (LHS)
➤
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3ECONOMY IN CHARTS
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Chart 13
Euro land: Serv ices And Manufactur ing
Activ it ies Heading North
IndexP M I
Services
➤
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
P M IManufacturing
➤
Chart 12
China: Escalating House Prices, While
Exports Have Recovered
% yoy % yoy
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
06 07 08 09 10
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60House price
(LHS)
➤
Exports(RHS)
➤
Chart 15
Japan: A Sharp Recovery In Exports Lifted
Industr ia l Product ion
% yoy
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
05 06 07 08 09 10
Exports
➤
I P I
➤
Chart 11
China: Manufactur ing Act iv i t ies Bouncing
Back But Investment, Though Sti l l Strong,
Is Easing
Index % yoyFixed
investment(RHS)
➤
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
05 06 07 08 09 10
10
15
20
25
30
35
ManufacturingP M I
(LHS)
➤
Chart 14
Euroland: Business Confidence Improved,
While Consumer Confidence Eased
Index Index
Consumerconfidence
(LHS)
➤
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Business climateindicator
(RHS)
➤
Chart 16
Japan: Business Confidence Improved,
While Consumer Confidence Eased
Index Index
-70
-60
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Tankan survey(large mfg.)
(LHS)➤
Consumer confidence(RHS)
➤
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ECONOMY IN CHARTS4
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Global Semiconductor Sales Picking Up Due To New Applications And Pent-
up Demand
Chart 1
Semiconductor Sales Picking Up Strongly
As Global Economy Recovers
(Worldwide Semiconductor Sales)% chgUS$bn
0
5
10
15
20
25
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80US$bn (LHS)
yoy (RHS)
Chart 2
A Broad-based Recovery In Semiconductor
Sales
% yoy
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
`
Asia-Pacific
➤
➤
Japan
Euroland
➤
U S
➤
Chart 5
Inventory Inching Up, Albe i t Gradual ly
US$bn Days
Inventorydays(RHS)
➤
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
9 7 J a n A p r
J u l
O c t
9 8 J a n A p r
J u l
O c t
9 9 J a n A p r
J u l
O c t
0 0 J a n A p r
J u l
O c t
0 1 J a n A p r
J u l
O c t
0 2 J a n A p r
J u l
O c t
0 3 J a n A p r
J u l
O c t
0 4 J a n A p r
J u l
O c t
0 5 J a n A p r
J u l
O c t
0 6 J a n A p r
J u l
O c t
0 7 J a n A p r
J u l
O c t
0 8 J a n A p r
J u l
O c t
0 9 J a n A p r
J u l
O c t
1 0 J a n
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
Inventory(LHS)
➤
Chart 4
Global Chipmaking Equipment Sales
Turn ing Around
Index
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
US$bn
Chart 3
Ris ing Book ings And
Shipments Pushing Up Book-to-bi l l Ratio
Ratio (Equipment Sector)
Bookings(RHS)
Book-to-bill(LHS)
Shipments(RHS)
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
➤
➤
➤
Chart 6
Asia-Pacif ic (Ex-Japan) Remains A MajorMarket For Semicon Sales
% of total sales(Semiconductor Sales)
0
510
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10*
* refers to (Jan-Feb) 2010
Asia-Pacific
➤
US
➤
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5ECONOMY IN CHARTS
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Malaysia : Real GDP Recovery Picking Up Momentum
Chart 2
Industr ia l Product ion And Exports
Head ing Up
% yoy
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Totalexports
➤
Manufacturingproduction
➤
Chart 6
Recovery In Imports Of Intermediate InputsPoints To An Improvement In
Manufactured Exports
% yoy
Intermediateinputs
➤
Manufacturedexports
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
➤
Chart 3
Exports To China
And As ia-Pac i f ic Ex-Japan Recover ing
% yoy
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
China
➤
Asia-Pacificex-Japan
➤
Chart 4
Exports To US, Euroland And Japan
Turn ing Around
% yoy
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
U S
➤
Japan
➤ E U
➤
Chart 1
Leading Index Points To A Sustained
Economic Recovery
%
6 - m t h a n n u a l r a t e o f c h a n g e
%
1 2 - m t h a n n u a l r a t e o f c h a n g e
-5
0
5
10
15
20
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
OECD leadingindex(RHS)
➤
Malaysia leading economicindex (LHS)
➤
Chart 5
A Broad-based Recovery In Exports ByP roduc t s
% yoy
E&Eexports
➤
Exports of non-E&Emanufactured goods
➤
Commodityexports
➤
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
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ECONOMY IN CHARTS6
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Chart 10
Manufacturers Recruiting Workers For The
Last Nine Consecutive Months
No of workers
-70,000
-60,000
-50,000
-40,000
-30,000
-20,000
-10,000
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
2007 2008 2009 2010
Chart 12
Tourist Arrivals Held Up At A High Level, A
Boon To Consumer Spending
(‘000) % yoy
➤
%yoy(RHS)
no. of tourist arrivals(LHS)
➤
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Chart 8
Car Sales And Consumer Credit On
Upward Trends
%yoy
Consumercredit
➤
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
3040
50
60
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Passenger carsales
➤
% yoy
Chart 9
A Pick-up In Imports Of Consumption
Goods Points To A Recovery In Consumer
Spe nd i ng
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
Chart 7
Private Investment Will Likely Recover Along
With A Pick-up In Imports Of Capital Goods
% yoy
*(Jan-Feb) 2010
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10*
MIDA investmentapprovals
➤
Imports of capital goods
➤
Chart 11
Higher Commodity Prices WillEncourage Rural Households To Spend
RM/ tonne sen/kg
Palm oil(LHS)
➤
600
1,100
1,600
2,100
2,600
3,100
3,600
4,100
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
150
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
950
1,050
1,150
Rubber(RHS)
➤
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7ECONOMY IN CHARTS
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Chart 17
Excess Liquidity Mopped Up By BNMRemains Substant ia l
RMbn
BNM bills
Excess funds mopped up by BNMfrom interbank market
Repos (estimate)
2
52
102
152
202
252
302
352
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
RM218.7bn(end-Mar)
➤
Chart 18
Smaller Current Account Surplus In TheBalance Of Payments, But Remains
Sizeable
RMbn
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
currentaccount in the
balance of payments
➤
% yoy(RHS)
➤
Chart 13
St imulus Spending Leading To H igher
Pub l i c Spend ing
(Federal Government Expenditure) % yoyRMbn
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
./
RMbn(LHS)
➤
%, yoy(RHS)
➤
Chart 15
Inflat ion Picking Up But Wil l Likely
Be Manageable
% yoy
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
05 06 07 08 09 10
TotalC P I
➤
CoreC P I
➤
Chart 14
Loan Growth Acce lerat ing And Asset
Qual i ty Remain ing Stable
% of total loans % yoy
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
143-mth Gross NPLs (LHS)
6-mth Gross NPLs (LHS)
Total loan growth (RHS)
Chart 16
Normalisat ion Of Monetary Condit ions
Wil l Continue, Albeit At A Measured Pace
% p.a.
3-mthKLIBOR
O P R
➤
➤
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
3-mth USinterbank rate
➤
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