EBTKE CONEX 2012 - energy-indonesia.comenergy-indonesia.com/03dge/02.pdf · EBTKE –CONEX 2012 ......
Transcript of EBTKE CONEX 2012 - energy-indonesia.comenergy-indonesia.com/03dge/02.pdf · EBTKE –CONEX 2012 ......
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Jakarta , 17 July 2012
Readiness of PLN to Utilize Renewable Energy (Capacity,
Bankable Power Purchase Agreement and Feasibility Study,
Pricing)
PT PLN (Persero)
PT PLN ( Persero )
EBTKE CONEX 2012
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PLN has been ready since quite long time. PLN has a long history in using greenenergy for its electricity generation especially as PLN project.
How about IPPs Project? Great opportunity for private to make a PPA with PLN in IPP Schemes, RE or
Non RE Data said that very low success ratio of IPPs project compared to PLN project
and the problem is not the readiness o PLN Readiness of PLN in not necessary for questioned and has been realised by:
o Stated on RUPTL (RE is priority nor leas cost)o Consistenly support the goverment policieso Support the IPP project : entertaint the IPP developer when required
for continuation the project
Utilizing RE for Electricity, is PLN ready?
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Gas
Geothermal
LNG
HSD MFO
Coal
IPPs project, front (study) to end (electricity delivered)
Study (Preliminary, Pra FS, FS) : dev. responsibility technical (duration & quality) andfinancial
Permits : government (local, forestry, MeMR) permits and approval
Procurement : Pricing and PPA
Financial Closing : equity and loan
Construction : developer responsibility technical (duration and quality) and financial
Operation : developer responsibility technical (O/M) and financial
PLN has an intensive involvement only in procurement (pricing and PPA)
PLN concern to capacity, energy production, energy price, availability and continuity
Pricing for RE, PLN implements the government regulation (FIT or B 2 B) and PPA is negotionable
Pricing and PPA are not main problem, main constraint generally due to permits and internaldeveloper (capability in technical and financial)
Are the PPA and Pricing as the main problem?
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Gas
Geothermal
LNG
HSD MFO
Coal
IPP for MHEPP status
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Number Installed Capacity (kW) Number Installed Capacity (kW)
Indonesia Barat 67 398,731
Operasi 7 21,095 7 21,095
Konstruksi 10 71,868 17 92,963
PPA 19 137,900 36 230,863
Ijin ESDM 15 68,210 51 299,073
Proposal 16 99,658 67 398,731
Indonesia Timur 48 162,770
Operasi 8 26,340 8 26,340
Konstruksi 19 62,600 27 88,940
PPA 5 12,550 32 101,490
Ijin ESDM 12 49,980 44 151,470
Proposal 4 11,300 48 162,770
Jawa Bali 68 214,119
Operasi 8 2,055 8 2,055
Konstruksi 12 26,210 20 28,265
PPA 10 38,570 30 66,835
Ijin ESDM 27 109,434 57 176,269
Proposal 11 37,850 68 214,119
Total Indonesia 183 775,620
Total Operasi 23 49,490 23 49,490
Total Konstruksi 41 160,678 64 210,168
Total PPA 34 189,020 98 399,188
Total Ijin ESDM 54 227,624 152 626,812
Total Proposal 31 148,808 183 775,620
IPP CumulativeRegion
REKAPITULASI STATUS PLTM IPP
12 Juli 2012
IPP for MHEPP
Total PPA : 98
Construction/FC : 41
Operated : 23
F/C problem : 11
Construction problem : 14
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Gas
Geothermal
LNG
HSD MFO
Coal
IPP Geothermal status
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MODEL PENGEMBANGAN
SESUAI PERMEN ESDM 01/2012
PIC PROBLEMSJUMLAH PROYEK
TOTAL KAPASITAS
(MW)
PLTP PLN (EKSPLORASI DAN PENDANAAN) 1 20 PLN TULEHU
PLTP PLN (HILIR)-PGE (HULU) 4 300 PLN, PGEHULULAIS, S. PENUH, KOTAMOBAGU(TEHNICAL AND PERMITS PROBLEM)
PLTP IPP - KONTRUKSI / FC SELESAI 2 170 DEVELOPER PATUHA UNIT 1, ULUBELU 3 & 4
PLTP EKSTENSION/WKP EXISTING SIAP IMPLEMENTASI
8 1115DEVELOPER
, PLN
LUMUT BALAI, LAHENDONG 5 & 6, KARAHA BODAS 1, KAMOJANG 5 (F/C DELAY)
W. WINDU (PERMITS, TECHNICAL AND PRICING)
SARULLA I (JOC)
DIENG 2&3 (PRICING)
PATUHA 2 & 3 (TECHNICAL)
CIBUNI (LEGAL INTERNAL DEV)
PLTP WKP EXISTING MENUNGGU PROPOSAL / BELUM EKSPLORASI
3 395 DEVELOPER
KARAHA BODAS 2&3, KAMOJANG 6 (PERMITS)
T. PERAHU II (TECHNICAL AND PRICING)
I.ARGOPURO (PERMITS AND TECHNICAL)
SARULLA II (TECHNICAL)
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Gas
Geothermal
LNG
HSD MFO
Coal
IPP Geothermal status
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MODEL
SESUAI PERMEN ESDM 01/2012
PIC PROBLEMSJUMLAH PROYEK
TOTAL KAPASITAS
(MW)
PLTP WKP BARU ESC/PPA SELESAI 3 445 DEVELOPERATADEI, MUARALABOH, RAJABASA(EXPLORASI, F/C)
PLTP WKP BARU (SURAT PENUGASAN SDH TERBIT DALAM PROSES/NEGOSIASI ESC/PPA)
13 1515DEVELOPER
, PLN
SOKORIA, T.PERAHU I, C.CISUKARAME, TAMPOMAS (PRICING)
GUCI, R.DADAP, BATURADEN, NGEBEL, R.DANO, UNGARAN, SUOH SEKINCAU, S.MERAPI, JABOI (PPA PROCESS)
PLTP WKP BARU (PROSES PENERBITAN SURAT PENUGASAN)
3 140 KESDM JAILOLO, HUU, IJEN
PLTP WKP BARU (IUP BELUM TERBIT/TENDER PEMDA BELUM SELESAI)
14 825 PEMDA
S.AGAM, D.RANAU, BONJOL, SIPOHOLON, S.SAMOSIR, WAY RATAI, GN. ENDUT, U.TELOMOYO, GN. CEREMAI, SEMBALUN, BORA, S. WAYAUA, MERANA/MASAINGI, MATALOKO
TOTAL 51 4925
From total of 51 projects :
Pricing problem faced by only 7 projects
PPA process : 9 project
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Gas
Geothermal
LNG
HSD MFO
Coal
PLN has entertaint IPP projects, which had faced financial problem due to problems ofdevelopers scope. Renegociate the increasing price :
2009 2011 : 25 IPP and 15 have been ammended
2011 2012 : 6 IPP and 2 have been ammended
Preliminary evaluation : after ammended with better price less than 50% of IPP terkendademonstrate promising progress.
Lesson :
Price is not main problem
Higher price does not guarantee the successful of the project
Higher price in some cases invite other stakeholder (brokers etc.), the incentives do not go tothe right stake holder (profesional developers)
Unsuccess story on IPP terkendala
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Government (central and local) support required: Establish clear and harmonic regulation Commit to proceed issues regarding permission certainly and progresively Sinergic relationship between central and local government Controling (monitor and supervise) the progress of RE development Facilitating to enhance technical, financial and social aspect
Private Iniciatives required: Preparing internal capability (technical & financial) seriously Commit to undertake each steps of development inline / meet the
regulation and PPA including procedure, cost, schedule and quality Profesional communication with other stake holder especially government
and buyer/PLN
Government Support and Private Iniciative
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Thank you
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http://www.flickr.com/photos/valanne/432271395/
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Gas
Geothermal
LNG
HSD MFO
Coal
IPP Geothermal status
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MODEL
SESUAI PERMEN ESDM 01/2012
PIC PROBLEMSJUMLAH PROYEK
TOTAL KAPASITAS
(MW)
PLTP WKP BARU ESC/PPA SELESAI 3 445 DEVELOPERATADEI, MUARALABOH, RAJABASA(EXPLORASI, PERMITS, F/C)
PLTP WKP BARU (SURAT PENUGASAN SDH TERBIT DALAM PROSES/NEGOSIASI ESC/PPA)
13 1515DEVELOPER
, PLN
SOKORIA, T.PERAHU I, C.CISUKARAME, TAMPOMAS (PRICING)
GUCI, R.DADAP, BATURADEN, NGEBEL, R.DANO, UNGARAN, SUOH SEKINCAU, S.MERAPI, JABOI
PLTP WKP BARU (PROSES PENERBITAN SURAT PENUGASAN)
3 140 KESDM JAILOLO, HUU, IJEN
PLTP WKP BARU (IUP BELUM TERBIT/TENDER PEMDA BELUM SELESAI)
14 825 PEMDA
S.AGAM, D.RANAU, BONJOL, SIPOHOLON, S.SAMOSIR, WAY RATAI, GN. ENDUT, U.TELOMOYO, GN. CEREMAI, SEMBALUN, BORA, S. WAYAUA, MERANA/MASAINGI, MATALOKO
TOTAL 51 4925
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Existing Total Capacity 34,928 MW
Generation Capacity (type and ownership) 2011
2.756
2.871
8.112
12.170
3.503
440
130
477
285
3.142
347
695
0 2.000 4.000 6.000 8.000 10.000 12.000 14.000
Diesel PP
GTPP
CCPP
Coal STPP
HEPP
Geothermal
IPP (MW) PLN (MW)
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Share of RE in National Installed Capacity and Electricity Produced
Fuel oil, 23.%
Hydro, 7%
Nat.Gas, 21%
Coal, 44%
Geothermal and other, 5.%
National (PLN+ IPP) installed
capacity power plant (RE 14%)
Electricity generated based on
primary energy (RE 12%)
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Fuel Mix Projection 2011-2020 (in percentages)
Gas
Geothermal
Hydro
LNGHSD
MFO
Coal
Share of RE plan to increase from 11 % (2011) to 18 % ( 2020 )
6% 6% 6% 5% 5% 6% 6% 6% 6% 6%
5% 4% 4% 5%8% 8%
10% 11% 12% 12%
50% 54%
61% 63%63%
64%64%
65% 64% 64%
17%
21%
21%19% 17%
15% 12% 8% 8% 8%
0%
4%
3%5% 6% 5% 7% 9%
9% 8%
5%
2%
1.1%0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
16.12%
8.57%3.93%
1.81% 0.99% 0.88% 0.77% 0.70% 0.70% 0.71%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Impor Biomass Surya/Hybrid HSD MFO LNG Gas Batubara Geothermal Hydro
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50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
GW
h
Impor Biomass Surya/Hybrid HSD MFO LNG Gas Batubara Geothermal Hydro
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MW
1313
4,477
5,372
4,283
2,357 2,254 1,992 1,780 1,718
3,019
4,102
1,106
1,505
688
1,917
3,690
5,172
4,656
2,463
2,015
780
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1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
IPP
PLN
Total : 55,345 MW ( 31.353 MW of PLN and
23,993 MW of IPP)
About 5.500 MW/year additional capacity
5,583
6,877
4,971
4,271
5,941
7,164
6,436
4,181
5,034 4,882
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1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
PLTU PLTA PLTP PLTGU PLTG PLT Lain Total
Power Plant Capacity Development Plan (2011-2020)
CFPP : 35,573 MW
M/HPP : 5,723 MW
GPP : 6,247 MW
CCPP : 3,263 MW
GTPP : 4,093 MW
Others : 441 MW
Total : 55,345 MW
MW
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RE Potential and Development Plan
NORENEWABLE
TYPEPOTENCY
INSTALLED
CAPACITY
ADDITIONAL CAPACITY PROGRAM(2011-2020)
1 Hydro power 75.670 MW 5.705 MW 5222 MW
2 Geothermal 29.038 MW 1.209 MW 6247 MW
3 Mini/Micro Hydro 769 MW 218 MW 501 MW
4 Biomass 49.810 MW 61 MW 374 MW
5 Solar power 4,80 kWh/m2/day 13,5 MW 592 MW
6 Wind power3 6 m/s (9.290
MW)1,87 MW 140 MW
Source : RIPEBAT 2010-2025 updated from multiple sources and RUPTL 2011-2020