Eastern Pacific Post-Tropical Cyclone SIMON DiscussionNumber 26

000

WTPZ44 KNHC 080242

TCDEP4

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SIMON DISCUSSION NUMBER 26

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192014

800 PM PDT TUE OCT 07 2014

Simon has been devoid of organized deep convection for more than 12

hours. Strong shear and an unfavorable thermodynamic environment

should prevent any significant redevelopment of convection, and the

system is being declared a post-tropical remnant low at this time.

Based on earlier ASCAT data, the initial wind speed remains 30

kt for this advisory. The low should weaken during the next day or

so, and the global models suggest that the cyclone will become

an open trough within 24 to 48 hours as it interacts with land.

The low has turned northeastward this evening with an initial motion

estimate of 040/6 kt. A northeastward motion with some increase in

forward speed is expected until dissipation occurs. This will take

the cyclone, or its remnant, across north-central Baja California

and into Mainland Mexico.

Even if Simon or its remnant surface circulation does not make it

across the rugged terrain of the Baja California peninsula, moisture

associated with this system is expected to spread across the

northern Baja California peninsula, northwestern Mexico, and into

the U.S. Desert Southwest, which could trigger heavy rains in those

regions during the next couple of days. Please refer to statements

from your local weather office for information on hazards specific

to your area.

This is the last advisory issued by the National Hurricane Center

on Simon. For additional information on the remnant low please see

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service...under

AWIPS header NFDHSFEPI and WMO header FZPN01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 08/0300Z 28.1N 115.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

12H 08/1200Z 28.9N 114.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

24H 09/0000Z 30.5N 113.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

36H 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$

Forecaster Brown

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCDEP4.shtml