Draft conclusions and key recommendations of the CAFE Position Paper on PM

Martin Meadows and Bernd Seifert

CAFE Workshop, 20 & 21 October 2003

Web link: www.itm.su.se

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Terms of referenceWith the aim of supporting the European

Commission’s review of the First Daughter Directive (DD) 1999/30/EC the group should:

assess the air quality situation with regard to the PM limit values set in the DD;

review the content of the Position Paper on PM published in 1997 with regard to information obtained since;

collect together information on predictive studies on the attainability of the limit values, considering at the same time contributions from long-range transport and local sources.

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Terms of referenceWith the aim of supporting the production of

the CAFE thematic strategy the group should:

consider the WHO work on health effects of PM with the aim of giving recommendations for targets for integrated assessment; 

review the results of the integrated assessment modelling work on PM.

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WHO conclusions “There is strong evidence to conclude

that fine particles (PM2.5) are more hazardous than larger ones (coarse particles) in terms of mortality and cardiovascular and respiratory endpoints in panel studies.

This does not imply that the coarse fraction of PM10 is innocuous”

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WHO conclusions Epidemiological studies on large

populations have been unable to identify a threshold concentration below which ambient PM has no effect on health.

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Information availability Greatly improved information since

the first Position Paper in 1997 on PM10 characteristics, ambient concentrations, historic trends and projections

Comparatively little information on PM2.5

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Trends Primary PM10 emissions reduced by

18% across Europe between 1990 and 2000

Precursor emissions also decreased significantly

Annual average PM10 concentrations decreased by 15 to 20% on average since 1998. Not uniform.

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Attainability Less stringent Stage 1 annual average

limit value likely to be attained in 2005 in most MS with some exceptions at urban background and hotspots

With current policies, PM levels at many locations across the EU likely to exceed the Stage 1 24h limit value in 2005

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Attainability Even with ambitious measures, indicative

limit values seem unattainable in the most polluted locations by 2010

Attainability at all locations largely outside control of MS because of transboundary nature of PM10 pollution. Europe-wide action needed.

Attainability difficulties at hotspots should not not prevent MS implementing measures to reduce possible non-compliance

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PM metric Recommends the use of PM2.5 rather than

PM10 as the principal metric for assessing exposure to PM.

Reclassify indicative Stage 2 PM10 limit values as non-mandatory target values with the aim to help control the coarse fraction, PM2.5-10.

Continue monitoring PM10 at a lower intensity

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Targets Recommends that the Commission

consider the use of alternative approaches, such as gap closure or targets, to supplement the use of limit values.

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Annual average limit value Recommends a range of values (12

to 20 µg/m³ - derived from current Stage 1 LV) for the integrated assessment procedure to identify an appropriate PM2.5 annual average limit value. Position Paper provides rationale.

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24-h average limit Recommends a value for PM2.5

around 35 µg/m³ (not to be exceeded more than 10% of the days of the year) as a starting point for consideration.

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Other recommendations 34 other recommendations from

individual chapters Research Measurement

Important to address contradiction between reference method and daily reporting requirements

Characterisation Modelling Abatement strategies Attainability Strategy for setting targets

CAFE Workshop on PM:preliminary outcomes

and conclusions

Dick van den Hout, TNO

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General introduction session Richmond – Parallel developments in USA;

similarities and differences:

PM10 standard resulted in disproportionate effort to mitigate coarse fraction

PM2.5 proposals USA and WG PM are fairly similar

PM10 proposals are more different: PM10-2.5 PM10

Higher lower range of value

Will explore further cost benefit for mitigating fine or coarse fractions, projections, spatial issues.

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Themes (1) Uncertainty

Uncertainties tend to be larger for PM2.5 than

for PM10 (levels, trends, projections and

attainability)

Natural sources not well quantified

Inconsistencies in modelling, source

apportionnement

Health effects

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Themes (cont’d) Shortcomings in European-wide

assessment of PM levels Measuring methods: (non-)equivalence,

Correction Factors Station

coverage/representativeness/station type mix

Modelling shortcomings

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Themes (cont’d) Attainability: broad confirmation of

the analysis in the Position Paper:

- there will be large attainment problems

- with existing LVs- more so with the new proposals

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Themes (cont’d) How to reduce? (1)

Balance between sectors to be targetted: Aim at sectors that have not yet done much? Aim at sectors that are most relevant for

health risks?

Should one aim to reduce also hot spot and/or short term exposure? This awaits the 2nd round of WHO answers.

Local measures are often not sufficient; large background; (inter)national measures needed.

Information on measures (what is possible/impossible) in Member States is badly needed.

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Themes (cont’d) How to reduce? (2)

Time lag between the setting of emission standards for cars and the actual emission reduction of the existing fleet in considerable; fuel composition measures enter more rapidly in effect. Retrofitting?

Industry prefers targets for emissions or air quality instead of prescriptions for how to achieve this.

Potential synergies with Climate Change for “warming” PM components (Black Carbon). Opposing effects as well (e.g. sulphate, nitrate).

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Themes (cont’d) Health issues

Importance of fine versus coarse fraction Should we care more about Black Smoke? Traffic related hot spot exposure is of concern

There may be an effect threshold for PM2.5. take

into account in uncertainty analysis; take into account in Risk Assessment.

Not only elderly people, also children are being affected.

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Examples from cities (1) Attainability problem of especially

- 2005 daily Limit Value- 2010 both daily and annual indicative Limit Value

Main focus on traffic sources, but not always. Other major sources:- long range transport- wood burningContribution of industry is limited in most cases.

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Examples from cities (cont’d)

Specific local conditions may aggrevate the PM situation:- Meteorological & geographical conditions (mountains near Milan)- African dust outbreaks (Madrid)- Wood burning + use studded tyres/road surface wear (Stockholm)- High background (Berlin)

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Examples from cities (cont’d) Traffic receives most attention for local action,

due to both exhaust and non-exhaust PM.

Analyses indicate limited impact of reducing PM10 by local measures:- better regulate exhaust emissions at EU level- impact of traffic flow reduction is limited, unless significant traffic reduction- cleaning roads has no impact- reduction use studded tyres effective to decrease PM10 concentration.

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Themes (cont’d) PM AQ thresholds proposed (1)

Why not stick to PM10 in view of uncertainties,and correlations with PM2.5?

Include Black Smoke in some way?EC and OC fraction of PM will increase over time

Do we need a daily LV in addition to an annual LV?

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Themes (cont’d) PM AQ thresholds proposed (2)

Proposed values of AQ thresholds are preliminary and starting values for Integrated Assessment.

Do metrics proposed drive the correct policies?

Proposal to supplement LVs with additional approach. E.g. change focus of enforcement; then create target values and then develop gap closure.

WHO associates the most serious health effects with the fine fraction.

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Themes (cont’d) PM AQ thresholds proposed (3)

Take the USA example and regulate PM2.5 and PM2.5-10 separately. Coarse fraction can be addresses by local action.

Measurements of PM2.5 are less accurate than of PM10.

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Themes (cont’d) PM AQ thresholds proposed (4)

For WG members to think about in the next weeks:

PM2.5-10 instead of PM10? Include “Black Smoke” in some way?