Slide 1Dr. MRUTYUNJAY MOHAPATRA DIRECTOR GENERAL OF METEOROLOGY
INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT
NEW DELHI-110003 mohapatraimd@gmail.com
As per study (1970-2019), 33% of hydrometeorological disasters are
caused by TCs.
One out of three events that killed most people globally is tropical
cyclones (TC).
Seven out of ten disasters that caused biggest economic losses in the
world from 1970-2019 are tropical cyclones.
It is the key interest of 85 WMO Members prone to tropical cyclones.
In terms of deaths due to TCs, casualties of 300,000 in Bangladesh in
1970 is still ranked as the biggest casualties for the last five decades;
Cyclone Monitoring, forecasting & warning services deal with
application of all modern technologies into operational services.
Hon’ble PM’s Statement after Cyclone Hudhud hit Visakhapatnam coast
In this Cyclone, India Meteorological Department provided accurate forecast by applying science and technology. The actual track, intensity and landfall were same as predicted
STATEMENT BY MEDIA ON PARADIGM SHIFT IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTING BY IMD
• FRONT LINE MAGAZINE (NOV 1999): SCIENTIFIC FAILURES. The scientific systems whose responsibility it was to predict the
contours of the cyclone did a far from perfect job. To be able to do a better job next time around, an integrated approach to cyclone studies is needed.
• FRONT LINE MAGAZINE (NOV 2013): ACING THE STORM. The India Meteorological Department, with improved models and
observation systems and greater forecast skills, predicts accurately not only the intensity of cyclone Phailin but also its landfall.
Cyclone Phailin, Hudhud or Fani are not an isolated cases of success
Due to several initiatives taken by IMD, Ministry of Earth sciences (MoES), Govt of India, the cyclone forecast has improved in recent years significantly
Forecast Performance during 2013
•VSC HUDHUD), Oct., 2014
Cyclone Forecast Accuracy The forecast accuracy is at par with leading centres of the world.
The cyclone track forecast errors of IMD has reduced from 124 km in 2009-13 to 86 km in 2014-18 for 24 hr forecast, from 202 to 132 km for 48 hrs forecast and from 268 to 177 km for 72 hrs forecast.
The uncertainty in track forecast for all the lead period upto 5 days has been reduced by about 30% during the same period.
The 24 hrcyclone landfall forecast error has reduced from 91 km to 42 km during the same period.
The error in intensity forecast is also less (about 10-15 knots for 24-72 hr forecasts).
The accuracy of adverse weather warning including rainfall, thunderstorm, fog. storm surge and wind also improved significantly by about 10-20% in recent five years compared to previous five years.
Outcome Due to above improvement in cyclone forecast accuracy, there has
been increase in confidence of disaster managers and public
leading to
• Minimum loss of human lives (limited to double digits) in
recent years
• Decrease in area of evacuation by 100 km in 5 years and
hence evacuation cost.
• Awards and Appreciations to India and IMD from various
national and international agencies.
OUTCOME: Loss Of Lives Due To Very Severe Cyclones crossing coast
• Significant reduction in human deaths due to cyclones • Number of deaths less than 100 in recent years compared to
thousands due to similar cyclones in past, • For example. Odisha Super Cyclone in 1999 (10,000)
Cyclone warning improvement over the years • Super Cyclone-1999
• No genesis forecast
• Accuracy was moderate
• 3 day Genesis forecast
• Objective track, intensity and
landfall forecast-5 day lead
• Accurate impact based warning
• Super Cyclone-1999 • Max wind:140kt
CYCLONE, 1999 VSCS PHAILIN,
2013 1. Loss of human life 9887 21 2. Ex-gratia paid by Govt. @
Rs 6 lakhs
3. Area of evacuation 500 km (approx) 180 km
4. Cost of evacuation per km (10 lakhs assumed)
50 crores 18 crores
Calculation is based on assumption that similar amounts would have been spent for evacuation and payment of ex-gratia in 1999 as in 2013
• There is decrease in area of evacuation by 300 km in 20 years and hence evacuation cost by 60 percent
• Decrease in ex-gratia paid by Govt. to survivors by about 99 percent as compared to 1999.
HOW DID IT HAPPEN? • What was the game changer? Is it Odisha Super Cyclone causing
10,000 human loss?
with IMD as a partner
• Modernisation Programme of IMD-2007
IMD decides to modernise cyclone warning System through its own
modernisation programme
• Modernisation programme of IMD as well as cyclone warning system
starts -2008
UPGRADATION OF CYCLONE WARNING SERVICES
• Upgradation of cyclone warning services taken up in holistic manner
addressing all components of early warning system including:
(i) policy and planning,
(ii) Introduction of new tools and technology for monitoring, analysis,
forecasting and warning services
forecasting and warning services
(vii) outreach,
IMPROVEMENT IN POLICY AND PLANNING • Vision 2020 document was prepared in 2010
• Benchmarking to fix target of forecast accuracy of landfall, track,
intensity, heavy rainfall, wind and storm surge in 2010
• 20% by 2015 and 40% improvement by 2020 with base year as 2010.
Standard Operation Procedure for
• Daily Watch and Methodology
• Dissemination mechanism and triggering
National Cyclone Risk Mitigation Project by NDMA
Cyclone management guidelines of NDMA in 2008.
Hazard & Vulnerability Atlas as per requirement of NDMA
Institutional Mechanism: Establishment of Ministry of Earth Science
COMPONENTS OF EARLY WARNING SYSTEM • Institutional Mechanism
• Early Warning system
Institutional Mechanism
IMD is mandated to monitor and issue warnings regarding tropical cyclones over the north Indian ocean for the country.
International Responsibility: IMD also acts as RSMC to provide tropical cyclone advisories to 13
countries under WMO/ESCAP Panel (Bangladesh, India, Maldives, Myanmar, Oman, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Thailand, Yemen, UAE, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Iran.
Acts a Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre for international civil aviation Provides Global maritime Distress Support System (GMDSS) over NIO.
Improvement in policy and planning
Action Runs of different Models, Consecutive runs from the same model, Ensemble runs ("choosing the best member") Numerical
forecasts
• Geoststionary Satellites • Polar Orbiting Satellites
• AWS • ARG • SYNOP • BUOYS • AVIATION • SHIPS
Early Warning System
SOP : BULLETINS AND WARNINGS for NATIONAL PURPOSE Four stage cyclone
warning i. Sea area bulletin ii. Coastal weather
bulletin iii. Bulletins for Indian
navy iv. Fisheries warnings v. Port warnings vi. Aviation warning vii. Bulletins for AIR/
Doordarshan/ press viii. CWDS bulletins ix. Warnings for
registered/ designated users.
x. Impact based forecast and warning using historical damage potential
Pre-cyclone watch (Yellow) – Issued to Cabinet Secretary and Senior Officials indicating formation of a cyclonic disturbance – potential to intensify into a Tropical Cyclone and coastal belt to be affected.
Cyclone Alert (Orange)- Issued at least 48 hrs in advance indicating expected adverse weather conditions.
Cyclone warning (Red) – Issued at least 24 hrs in advance indicating latest position of Tropical Cyclone, intensity, time and point of landfall, storm surge height, type of damages expected and actions suggested.
Post-Landfall Outlook- Issued about 12 hrs before landfall & till cyclone force winds prevail; District Collectors of interior districts besides the coastal areas are also informed.
Finally a ‘De-Warning’ message is issued when the Tropical Cyclone weakens into Depression stage.
Introduction of New Methodology
• Fishermen warning • Text cum Graphics
bulletin for entire North Indian Ocean days in stead of only for coastal area
• Validity period of fishermen warning increased from one day to five days
EXPECTED DAMAGE AND SUGGESTED ACTION Intensity Damage expected Action Suggested Deep Depression 50 – 61 kmph (28-33 knots)
Minor damage to loose and unsecured structures.
Fishermen advised not to venture into the open seas.
Cyclonic Storm 62 – 87 kmph (34-47 knots)
Damage to thatched huts. Breaking of tree branches causing minor damage to power and communication lines
Total suspension of fishing operations
Severe Cyclonic Storm 88-117 kmph (48-63 knots)
Extensive damage to thatched roofs and huts. Minor damage to power and communication lines due to uprooting of large avenue trees. Flooding of escape routes.
Total suspension of fishing operations. Coastal hutment dwellers to be moved to safer places. People in affected areas to remain indoors.
Improvement in policy and planning
EXPECTED DAMAGE AND SUGGESTED ACTION Intensity Damage expected Action Suggested Very Severe Cyclonic Storm 118-166 kmph (64-89 knots)
Extensive damage to kutcha houses. Partial disruption of power and communication line. Minor disruption of rail and road traffic. Potential threat from flying debris. Flooding of escape routes.
Total suspension of fishing operations. Mobilise evacuation from coastal areas. Judicious regulation of rail and road traffic. People in affected areas to remain indoors.
Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm 167-221 kmph (90-119 knots)
Extensive damage to kutcha houses. Some damage to old buildings. Large-scale disruption of power and communication lines. Disruption of rail and road traffic due to extensive flooding. Potential threat from flying debris.
Total suspension of fishing operations. Extensive evacuation from coastal areas. Diversion or suspension of rail and road traffic. People in affected areas to remain indoors.
Super Cyclonic Storm 222 kmph and more (120 knots and more)
Extensive structural damage to residential and industrial buildings. Total disruption of communication and power supply. Extensive damage to bridges causing large- scale disruption of rail and road traffic. Large-scale flooding and inundation of sea water. Air full of flying debris.
Total suspension of fishing operations. Large-scale evacuation of coastal population. Total suspension of rail and road traffic in vulnerable areas. People in affected areas to remain indoors.
INTRODUCTION OF NEW TECHNOLOGY
(i) Introduction of new technology for Observations automated weather stations, high wind speed recorders, Ocean buoys, Doppler weather radars, GPS-Sondes and satellite based monitoring tools for estimation of location and intensity, monitoring, analysis, modelling, forecasting, early warning generation and dissemination, (ii) Adaption of new versions of global & regional models • Implementation of atmosphere Ocean coupled model (iii) Tropical Cyclone Module and Ensemble prediction system (EPS) (iv) Synthetic vortex of cyclone for NWP model improvement. (v) IIT Delhi storm surge model and INCOIS Coastal inundation model (vi) Digital Forecasting workstation and PWS
Extended Range Forecast (ERF) of Cyclogenesis •First information about formation of LPA over EIO & adj. south BoB during week ending 25th and beginning of week ending at 2nd May with probability of intensification into depression was indicated in the ERF issued on 18th April.
WEEK 1: 19.04.2019- 25.04.2019
WEEK 2: 26.04.2019- 02.05.2019
• Based on large scale process like MJO
• NWP models like IMD GFS, GPP, NCEP GFS, NCUM and NEPS indicated no cyclogenesis during next 2 weeks.
• GEFS and ECMWF indicated low pressure system around 26th.
• MoES CFSv2 model indicated cyclogenesis during later part of week1 with 30-40% probability.
Short to Medium Range Genesis Forecast • Likely formation of LPA over EIO & adj. southwest BoB to the SE of Sri
Lanka around 26th April & intensification into D on 27th was predicted on 21st.
• Further modified on 22nd indicating an LPA over the same region on 25th April and likely intensification into a D during subsequent 48 hours.
NWP modeling : TC track forecasting methods i) Statistical Techniques
Analogue, Persistence, Climatology, CLIPER i) Synoptic Techniques – Empirical Techniques ii) Satellite Techniques Techniques iii) Radar Techniques v) NWP Models
• Individual models (Global and regional) • IMDGFS (1534), NCUM, ARP (Meteo France, ECMWF, JMA, UKMO,
NCEP, WRF (IMD), HWRF (IMD)-coupled with POM, UM-R • MME (IMD) and MME based on Tropical Cyclone Module (TCM) • EPS (Strike probability, Location specific probability : • IMD, NCMRWF and TIGGE products are available Development of EPS of regional models in progress HWRF coupling with POM implemented since cyclone Ockhi and
coupling with HYCOM in progress with INCOIS MME is run from the stage of T1.5 instead of T2.5 since 2018
INTRODUCTION OF NEW TOOLS & TECHNOLOGY
NWP modeling : TC intensity Forecasting methods
i) Statistical Techniques
i) Synoptic Techniques
ii) Satellite Techniques
iii) Radar Techniques
v) NWP Models
vi) Dynamical Statistical Model (SCIP) : SCIP is being run from T1.5
stage since 2018
vii) RI technique
INTRODUCTION OF NEW TOOLS & TECHNOLOGY
Adoption of new versions of global and regional deterministic and ensemble prediction systems,
96 h 72 h 48 h
24 h Ensemble Pred. Model GEFS(1534), UMEPS
Global Models GFS(T1534), Unified Model
Regional Models WRF (9KM/3KM), HWRF(18/6/2kms)
Nowcasting Tools ( SWIRLS,ARPS
Model) Warnings Activities
Nowcasting
24 h 00 h 120 h
By 2020:1-3 km Regional multi-model prediction system, ocean-atmosphere-land surface coupled severe weather pred. systems, Parametric models and Expert systems – severe weather Warning up to 5-7 days, Forecast outlook up to 10-15 days.
INTRODUCTION OF NEW TOOLS & TECHNOLOGY
CYCLONE FANI: Multi-model tracks
http://old.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/charts/medium/tropcyclones/Forecast/strike_new!2014!03B_HUDHUD_05!2014100812!dummy!/
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
0 12 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
In te
ns ity
(k t)
Observed FC1(00Z-26APRIL2019) FC2(12Z-26APRIL2019) FC3(00Z-27APRIL2019) FC4(12Z-27APRIL2019) FC5(00Z-28APRIL2019) FC6(12Z-28APRIL2019) FC7(00Z-29APRIL2019) FC8(12Z-29APRIL2019) FC9(00Z-30APRIL2019) FC10(12Z-30APRIL2019) FC11(00Z-01MAY2019) FC12(12Z-01MAY2019) FC13(00Z-02MAY2019) FC14(12Z-02MAY2019)
Observed Track and Forecast based on 0530 hrs IST of 30th April (72 hrs prior to landfall) with cone of uncertainty & wind distribution
Introduction of New Methodology Introduction of 120 hrs track forecast
alongwith cone of uncertainty Introduction of 120 hrs wind
distribution forecast for 28, 34. 50 and 64 knots wind threshold
A
B
forecast every 5 years
Reduction in Cone of Uncertainty in 2014
Reduction in Cone of Uncertainty in 2019
Consistency in Track, Intensity & Landfall F/C •Landfall point and intensity at the time of landfall was correctly predicted at least 72 hrs in advance. •The forecast issued on 30th April, 1st & 2nd May were almost same as actual track as shown in Fig below
Observed & forecast track based on 0530 IST/30th April (72 hrs prior to landfall) of ESCS FANI indicating accurate landfall prediction near Puri)
DATE/TIME IN IST
STORM SURGE GUIDANCE ASSOCIATED WITH ESCS “FANI” (BASED on IC – 02 May 1730 hr IST)
02/1730 IST
02/2330 IST
03/0530 IST
03/1130 IST
Hydro-meteorological Tools
Customized Rainfall Information System (CRIS) developed based on GIS platform includes; Preparation of operational real time rainfall maps, graphs and statistics (Daily ~130 rainfall products are generated on real time basis)
RIVER BASIN-WISE SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND STATISTICS OF RAINFALL FOR FLOOD
FORECASTING AND WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
INTRODUCTION OF NEW TOOLS & TECHNOLOGY
satellite and Raingauge
Hydromet support for Flood Forecasting in Cyclone
NWP Grid point WRF and GFS model forecast data operationally being sent to CWC for flood forecasting.
WRF(ARW) (3x3) (00UTC & 12 UTC) for 3 days GFS (12x12) and UM for 10 days GEFS, UMEPS for seven days Probabilistic QPF Heavy rainfall
OUTPUT PRODUC
Monitoring & Forecasting of VSCS BULBUL
MME Forecast 5-9 Nov
Telephone, Tele-fax, Mobile Phones (SMS) through IMD severe weather network, Agromet Network, INCOIS network.
VHF/HFRT/Police Wireless Satellite based cyclone warning dissemination System Aeronautical Fixed Terminal Network Global telecommunication system (GTS) : Websites, Dedicated website for cyclone (rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in) Radio/TV, News Paper network (AM, FM, Comminity Radio, Private TV) :
Prasar Bharati and private broadcasters NAVTEX , Internet (e-mail), ftp GAMES and NAVIK
Advances in Warning Dissemination Mechanism
Number of unique visitors on IMD website
(imd.gov.in) during cyclone Fani
• Popular talks/lectures and articles
A Glorious Decade of IMD (2006-2016)
Cyclone Warning in India: A Success Story,
Early Warning System of IMD.
• Users Workshop
response to media and people
• Documentation on each cyclone and its forecast since 2008
• Pre-cyclone exercise with disaster managers
• Verification of all forecasts
(ii) Data bases prepared for R&D activity:
(a) Cyclone E-Atlas and Web-Atlas
(b) Six hourly best track parameters of cyclones during 1982-2018,
(c) Digitisation of Annual RSMC Reports during 1990-2018,
(d) Hazard proneness of coastal districts,
(e) Tropical Cyclone Energy Metrix,
(f) Life Cycle,
(i) Landfall characteristics
R&D AND CAPACITY BUILDING
Cyclone Hazard Analysis Cyclone Hazard Prone Districts Based on Frequency Intensity Wind strength PMP PMSS
Mohapatra (2015), JESS
Presentation Notes
Background: 1. 96 districts including 72 touching the coast and 24 not touching coast, but lying within 100 km from coast are classified based on Frequency of cyclone Frequency of severe cyclone Probable maximum Precipitation Wind strength Storm surge Out of 96 districts, 12 are very highly prone, 41 highly prone, 30moderately prone and 13 less prone. The above classification is based on the recommendations of National Disaster Management Agency (NDMA). Work was carried out by a sub-committee constituted by NDMA with member from India Meteorological Department. 2. The cyclone warning service in India is a Three tier system, being monitored at IMD HQ, New Delhi Cyclone Warning Division finalises the monitoring, forecasting and warning information in case of a cyclone forming over north Indian Ocean. 2. The warnings are issued in four stages, viz., precyclone watch at least 72 hrs in advance, cyclone alert at least 48 hrs in advance, cyclone warning at least 24 hrs in advance and post-landfall outlook at least 12 hrs in advance of landfall. 3. The warning bulletins are issued at national level by cyclone warning division, at regional level by Area Cyclone Warning Centre and at state level by Cyclone Warning Centres every three hrs in cyclone stage. 3. Cyclone Warning Division acts as WMO recognised Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre (RSMC) to provide Tropical Cyclone Advisories to north Indian Ocean rim countries. 4. It also acts as Tropical Cyclone Advisory Centre for international civil aviation and provides tropical cyclone advisories to Airport Meteorological Offices. 5. Dissemination mechanism: Telephone, Tele-fax, Mobile Phones (SMS) through IMD severe weather network, Agromet Network, INCOIS network VHF/HFRT/Police Wireless Satellite based cyclone warning dissemination System Aeronautical Fixed Terminal Network Global telecommunication system (GTS): Internet (e-mail), ftp Websites (rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in) Radio/TV, News Paper network (AM, FM, Comminity Radio, Private TV) : Prasar Bharati and private broadcasters INMARSAT
National Lab to Lab Network programmes initiated and continued with
• IITM for global modeling, cyclogenesis forecast and ERF
• INCOIS for storm surge modeling, HWRF modeling and warning dissemination
• NIOT for meteorological buoy network planning and data exchange and evaluation
• NCMRWF for implementation of global deterministic and ensemble models,
• ISRO for customized satellite product development, planning and validation of products
• IAF, Indian Navy for meteorological observations including lightning data
• IIT Delhi for storm surge modeling, coastal inundation
• IIT, Bhubaneswar for HWRF Modeling
R&D AND CAPACITY BUILDING
International Bilateral/Multilateral network programmes conducted with
(i). NOAA USA for adaptation of HWRF model in IMD,
(ii). UKMET Office for Global and Regional Modeling, IBF
(iii) JMA for Ensemble prediction system,
(iv). WMO/ESCAP Panel for regional cyclone operational plan,
(v) WMO Typhoon Committee for synergized SOP for coastal multi-
hazard warning,
southeast Asia
(vii) WMO’s SWFDP-Bay of Bengal for forecast on heavy rain, wind,
wave & storm surge to member countries,
(viii) IBTrACS, USA
Way Ahead Still there are gaps in technology vis-a-vis capibility.
Gap in scientific understanding required for better forecasting that
includes:
Interaction between cyclone, Ocean, the surrounding environment
Internal physical and dynamical processes in clouds.
Gap in observational and modeling systems for forecasting with high
spatial resolution
There is still scope for improvement in Forecast skill with the above
Warning dissemination to be further improved for most vulnerable
groups at last mile (Along the coast and in the sea).
MoES is continuously upgrading its plan and strategy for all the above
Lessions learnt from past cyclones will be used for future
Thank you
Slide Number 1
Slide Number 2
Hon’ble PM’s Statement after Cyclone Hudhud hit Visakhapatnam coast
Statement by Media on Paradigm Shift in Tropical Cyclone Forecasting by IMD
Cyclone Phailin, Hudhud or Fani are not an isolated cases of success
Slide Number 6
Cyclone Forecast Accuracy
Outcome
OUTCOME: Loss Of Lives Due To Very Severe Cyclones crossing coast
Cyclone warning improvement over the years
OUTCOME
Institutional Mechanism
Slide Number 19
Introduction of New Technology
Slide Number 27
Slide Number 34
Slide Number 42
Way Ahead