Crafting the First Medium-term FILIPINO Development Plan ... · PDF fileCrafting the First...

Crafting the First Medium-term FILIPINO

Development Plan 2017-222

Rosemarie G. Edillon, PhD Deputy Director-General for Policy and Planning National Economic and Development Authority

Presentation Outline

I. Introduction and overview

II. The Life We Want

III. Realizing the Vision

Rosemarie G. Edillon, PhD Deputy Director-General for Policy and Planning National Economic and Development Authority

Competitive-ness of AIS

Indicators Baseline (2012)

2014 2015 2016

Gross Domestic Product (%)

6.8 6.5 -7.5 7.0-8.0 7.0-8.0

Unemployment rate (in %)

7.0 6.8 6.7 6.6

Underemployment rate (% of employed)

20.0 19.0 18.0 17.0

Poverty Incidence (% of population)

25.2 24.0 22.5 19.0

PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

101

96

0

19

62

19

64

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

20

14

20

16

20

18

GDP in 2000 prices, trillion Php, 1960-2018

The Philippines has been on a higher growth trajectory since the beginning of the current decade…

Real GDP growth

6.2% (2010-2015)

7.6% (2010) 3.7% (2011) 6.7% (2012) 7.1% (2013) 6.2% (2014) 5.9% (2015)

Source: PSA

Structural break of potential real GDP at around 2009


… with most of the regional economies posting faster growth…

Source: PSA

5.8

1.7

5.5

4.0

8.1

6.8

2.3

4.7

5.9

9.7

(0.6)

4.6

6.3

5.5

4.9

10.3

2.1

7.5

4.3

6.3 6.3 6.7

5.9

3.9

6.2

4.1

8.1

1.1

5.3

6.3

8.0

7.4

8.0

3.4

(2)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

NCR CAR I II III IVA IVB V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII ARMM

pe

rce

nt

ave gr 2010-2012 ave gr 2013-2014

Average real GDP growth by region (2000 prices)


…while some regions enjoyed a larger share of the economy.

Source: PSA

35.8

2.1 3.2

1.9

8.8

17.1

1.9 2.1

4.1

5.7

2.8 2.2

3.7 3.9

2.8

1.1 0.8

36.3

1.8 3.1

1.8

9.3

17.2

1.6 2.0

3.9

6.5

2.0 2.0

3.7 3.9 2.8

1.3 0.7

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

NCR CAR I II III IVA IVB V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII XIII ARMM

2009 2014

Shar

e-t

o-G

DP

(%

)

Regional share in GDP


-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2015 1Q2016

con

trib

uti

on

to

gro

wth

in p

pt

(%)

Agriculture Industry Services

Investment & industry are increasingly becoming major drivers of GDP growth…

2.8%

4.5%

6.2%

Ave. growth

Structural transformation is taking place

6.9% Supply Side Demand Side

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

1990-1999 2000-2009 2010-2015 1Q2016con

trib

uti

on

to

gro

wth

in p

pt

(%)

Consumption GovernmentInvestment Net exportsstatistical discrepancy

4.5%

6.2%

6.9%

2.8%

* as of Mar ’16 ** as of Mar ’16 *** as of Q3 2015

Headline and Core Inflation, Jan 2013- May 2016

Monetary and financial conditions fully support growth

Real Interest Rate and Non-performing Loans (NPLs),

2005- 2016

-0.5

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

4.5

5.5Ja

n-1

3Fe

b-1

3M

ar-1

3A

pr-

13

May

-13

Jun

-13

Jul-

13

Au

g-1

3Se

p-1

3O

ct-1

3N

ov-

13

Dec

-13

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Ap

r-1

4M

ay-1

4Ju

n-1

4Ju

l-1

4A

ug-

14

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4D

ec-1

4Ja

n-1

5Fe

b-1

5M

ar-1

5A

pr-

15

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5Se

p-1

5O

ct-1

5N

ov-

15

Dec

-15

Jan

-16

Feb

-16

Mar

-16

Ap

r-1

6M

ay-1

6Core Inflation Headline Inflation

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

14.0

16.0

18.0

20.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

NPL Ratio, LHS*Real interest rates, RHS**CAR, RHS***

Note: RHS – Right-hand scale ; LHS –Left-hand scale

Supporting this remarkable performance are sound macroeconomic fundamentals.


Source: Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas

Robust External Position

1070

2007

3215 3737

5740 5724

936

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Jan-Feb2016

Increasing Net FDI

Net FDI (US$ million)

26.5

2.9

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

Positive Current Acct. & Declining External Debt

External Debt to GDP ratio - LHSCurrent Account to GDP Ratio - RHS

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

Continuous Remittances Amidst Slowdown in Deployment

Cash Remittances (US$mn), LHS

OF Deployment ('000), RHS

88.6

60.0

32.4

9.5 7.5 4.2 2.0

-1.2 -6.2

-8.4

TH TW PH IN VT SG CH ID KR MY

Average Growth of FDI, 2012-2015*

*Data for China and Vietnam cover years 2012-2014

Supporting this remarkable performance are sound macroeconomic fundamentals.

Our stronger fiscal position has been recognized, garnering an

investment-grade sovereign credit rating for the first time in our history. • Modest fiscal deficit; Declining Public debt & interest payments; Increasing

reliance on domestic financing • Result: resilient fiscal position

Fiscal side:

Fiscal Position

National Government Borrowing Program (%)

Share of expenditures allocated to interest payments

National gov’t outstanding debt (% of GDP)

64.6 65.6 65.2 83.6

93.9

72.1 69.0 54.5

84.0

35.4 34.4 34.8 16.4

6.1

27.9 31.0 45.5

16.0

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 as of Mar2016

2016Proposed

Domestic Foreign

39.4

0.00

10.00

20.00

30.00

40.00

50.00

60.00

70.00

80.00

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 as ofendApr

2016

13.9 17.4

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 as ofMar2016

(7.00)

(2.00)

3.00

8.00

13.00

18.00

Fiscal Position Revenue Effort Tax Effort


Source: Philippine Statistics Authority

Our vibrant economy is producing more and better jobs... Unemployment and Underemployment rates (%) Employment Generated 2000- 2015 (‘000)

18.8

19.3

20.0

19.3

18.4 18.5

18.4

7.4

7.0 7.0 7.1

6.6

6.3

6.1

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

16.0

17.0

18.0

19.0

20.0

21.0

22.0

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014a/ 2015b/ Apr'2016c/

Un

emp

loym

ent

Rat

e

Un

der

emp

loym

ent

Rat

e

Underemployment (%) Unemployment (%)

3,782

3,448

4,310

183

50.3

51.9

56.7

59.3

62.1

45

50

55

60

65

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

2000-2004 2005-2009 2010-2014 2015c/ Apr'2016c/

Wag

e an

d S

alar

y W

ork

ers

(% in

To

tal E

mp

loym

ent)

Emp

loym

ent

Gen

erat

ed

Employment Generated ('000)Wage and Salary Worker (% in Total Employment)

Notes: a/ The FY 2014 LFS estimate is the average of April, July and Oct rounds excluding Leyte data b/ The FY 2015 LFS estimates is the average of the Jan to Oct 2015 rounds excluding Leyte data. FY 2015 employment generation estimate is the average of

April, July and Oct excluding Leyte data c/ Not comparable with previous rounds of LFS; break in the data series due to change sin the Master Sample Design. Starting April 2016, the LFS used the 2013

MS Design, the 2010 Census of Population and Housing(CPH)-based population projections and the 2012 Philippine Standard Occupation Classification (PSOC).

. *1997-2005: Adoption of population projection benchmark is based on the results of the 1995 Census **2006-2015: Adoption of population projection benchmark based on the results of the 2000 Census


Growth-enhanced fiscal space has allowed major investments in infrastructure with spending on infrastructure more than tripling...

Source: Department of Budget and Management

Public infrastructure spending, Bn PhP and % of GDP

306.9 346.2

595.8

766.5 876.6 1018.7

2.7 2.7

4.3

5.0 5.2 5.4

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Actual (2013-2014)/Program(2015)/Proposed(2016)/Projections(2017-2018) Ratio to GDP (rhs)PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July

6-9, 2016,

…complemented by private investments in public infrastructure Status of PPP Projects (as of 10 May 2016)

Source: PPP Center National Economic and Development Authority

Projects by Status No. of Projects Amount (PHP bn)

Projects Under Implementation

Contract Awarded 12 196.53

Other projects under Implementation 2 106.73

PPP Pipeline

Projects under Procurement 15 579.76

For Approval of Relevant Government Bodies 5 101.94

For Evaluation of Concerned Agencies 1 536.03

Projects with Ongoing Studies 4 48.76

Projects Under Conceptualization/Development 14 NA

Total 53 1,569.75

*GAA 2015 Source: DBM, PSA-NSCB

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

2000-2004 2005-2009 2010-2014 2015*

Spending on Social Services Per Capita, Constant Prices

Education Health Social Security (incl. CCT) Housing Total Social Services (rhs)

Increased fiscal resources have also allowed greater public

investments in social services…


Source: DSWD, BESF, DBM, NEDA-SDS

With the country’s CCT program (4Ps) being rapidly scaled up...

National Economic and Development Authority

0.34

0.78 1.00

2.32

3.11

3.80

4.30 4.35

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0.00

0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

CC

T B

ud

ge

t (i

n b

illi

on

pe

so

s)

CCT Budget (in billion pesos) CCT Household Beneficiaries (in millions)

Human capital: health outcomes are improving...

Selected Health Indicators: various years, 2000-2015

Source: 1/ For 2003, 2008, and 2013 data is from National Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS) and for 2001, 2006 and 2011, data is from the Family Health Survey (FHS). Please note that NDHS and FHS for the year identified covers period of 5 years prior to survey release | 2/National Nutrition Survey | 3/DOH | 4/APIS | 5/ PhilHealth | 6/Global TB Report WHO Note: a/ NHIP coverage rate ranges from 2011-2015, while the rest of the indicators range from 2011-2014.

48.9

50.7

55.1

63.9

62.2

72.8

37.9

44.2

61.1

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

70

75

2000-2004 2005-2010 2011-2014

Contraceptiveprevalence rate(allmethods)(%)1

Proportion ofbirths attendedby healthprofessional(%)1

Proportion ofbirths deliveredin facility (%)1

78.7

84.8 85.5 82.9

92.5 94.1

51

92

40.0

50.0

60.0

70.0

80.0

90.0

100.0

2000-2004 2005-2010 2011-2015a/

Proportion ofpopulationwith access tosafe water(HH in %)4

Proportion ofpopulationwith access tosanitary toilet(HH in %)4

NationalHealthInsuranceProgram(NHIP)coverage rate(in %)5

Human capital: as well as education outcomes...

Primary Education: various years, 2000-2015 Secondary Education: various years, 2000-2015

Source: Department of Education Note: a/ Latest data for Dropout Rate is 2014.

90.60 85.47

94.90

69.62 73.70

77.73

68.41 71.67

75.57

6.95 6.40 5.40

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015

In p

erce

nt

Participation Rate (or Net Enrolment Rate)Cohort Survival RateCompletion RateDropout Rate

60.01 59.59 64.22

75.19 76.54 79.19

71.89 71.59 75.61

8.33 8.78 7.37

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0

2000-2005 2005-2010 2010-2015

In p

erce

nt

Participation Rate (or Net Enrolment Rate)Cohort Survival RateCompletion RateDropout Rate

Source: Family Income and Expenditure Survey (FIES), Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA)

We are finally seeing greater inroads against poverty.

14.2

13.3 13.4

12.1

28.8 28.6 27.9

26.3

25.0

26.0

27.0

28.0

29.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

14.0

15.0

2006S1 2009S1 2012S1 2015S1

Pove

rty

(% o

f p

op

ula

tio

n)

Sub

sist

ence

(%

of

po

pu

lati

on

)

Subsistence (% of population) Poverty (% of population)

Poverty Statistics, First Semester (%)

Poverty Statistics, Full Year (%)

12.0

10.9 10.4

26.5 26.3

25.2

24.0

25.0

26.0

27.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

12.0

13.0

2006 2009 2012

Pove

rty

(% o

f p

op

ula

tio

n)

Sub

sist

ence

(%

of

po

pu

lati

on

)

Subsistence (% of population) Poverty (% of population)PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July 6-9, 2016,


Indicators Baseline (2012)

2014 2015 2016

Gross Domestic Product (%)

6.7 6.1 5.8

Unemployment rate (in %)

7.0 6.6* 6.3*

Underemployment rate (% of employed)

20.0 18.4* 18.5*

Poverty Incidence (S1) (% of population)

27.9 26.3



UNFINISHED BUSINESS


• A long-term (25 years) vision for the Philippines.

• A basis for unity among Filipinos.

• It is a vision, NOT a plan.

• An anchor for development planning across administrations.

• A guide for engaging with international development partners.

The Long-term Vision (LTV) process Survey

FGD 1. Advisory Committee

• composed of representatives from the government, private sector, the academe, and civil society guided the overall implementation of the visioning exercise

2. Public consultations • 42 FGDs with marginalized groups (C. David) • National Survey (n=10,000; PSRC)

3. Technical studies • Thematic study team organized (led by Dr. R. Clarete)

4. Communication & advocacy • Online social media engagement • Public forums

The Life We Want

An overwhelming majority of Filipinos aspire for a simple and comfortable life…

3.9% Life of the rich

79.2%

Simple & comfortable life

16.9% Affluent life


Matatag, maginhawa at panatag na buhay para sa lahat

• Widely-shared common vision for self and for the country

• Motivation for aspirations is family

• A comfortable life with the family, free of hardship and worry

• Families create vibrant and resilient communities

What is a simple & comfortable life?

73% All children are college-educated

62% Own one car

21% Able to take occasional trips around the country

73% Earning enough

61% Own a medium-sized

home

61% Have enough money for day-to-day needs

Business owner

30% Relax with family and friends

30%

What is a simple & comfortable life?

10,000 All children are

college-educated

5,000 Own one car

6,000 Able to take occasional

trips around the country

P 120,000 Gross Monthly Income

30,000 Own a medium-sized

home

40,000 Have enough money

for day-to-day needs

Income Tax

25,000

Relax with family

and friends

4,000

EDUCATION: Most preferred field of study (among those who have not finished college)

10% Engineering and

technology

10% Law and

jurisprudence

6.9% Medical

and allied

6.7% Trade, craft and

industrial

4.8% Maritime

16.5% Education science and

teacher training

12.7% Business administration

and related fields

11.6% IT related

10.5% Tourism and hospitality

Desired Occupation

Employer in own family-operated farm or business

Self-employed without any paid

employee

Work for private establishment

Work for government or government

corporation

Work with pay in own family-operated farm

or business

Work for private household

47% 22% 20%

20% 13% 18%

Good salary (enough wages, paid regularly), having a business with good revenue

Benefits and incentives (insurance, retirement)

Job stability or security

Secure income from a decent job

OCCUPATION: Many want to be entrepreneurs but want stable and regular source of income and insurance

DWELLING: Most respondents choose to live in houses with large lots, yet majority prefer to live in cities

73% selected the small

house with a big lot

14% chose the big house

with a small lot

Preferred community to live in

29% prefer to live in a small city in the province

30% prefer to live in a big city

like Manila

30% prefer to live in the town center in the province

79% want to live within

the same city where they work

14% want to work in a

big city but go home outside the

city

7% want to work and

live outside the city

Location preferences for work and home indicate that Filipinos generally want to work where family is within reach.

88%

Want to work in the Philippines

FINANCES: Majority want enough money for daily needs

• Enough for day-to-day needs (61%)

• With savings for unexpected expenses (28%), particularly related to sudden illness, natural hazards and man-made calamities

• Savings will also be used to buy car, build house, support retirement

Filipinos want to be mobile.

• Mobility in day-to-day living and for leisure is important to Filipinos • Ordinary people’s measure of their own success is the degree to which they are able to

afford travel for themselves and their families • Traveling within the country and to other countries is the most-frequently cited leisure

activity. • Car ownership is part of many families’ vision of their future

77% Own car/vehicle

23% Good public transportation

Majority of Filipinos prefer to use own car to go to places.

Question: In the year 2040, would you prefer to

have your own car to go to places you need to go

to or use a good public transportation system?

Vision of Filipinos for Self

“In 2040, we will all enjoy a stable and comfortable lifestyle, secure in the knowledge that we have enough for our daily

needs and unexpected expenses, that we can plan and prepare for our own and our children’s future. Our family lives together in a place of our own, and we have the freedom to go where we

desire, protected and enabled by a clean, efficient, and fair government."

64

51

50

38

36

36

17

10

No one is hungry

All Filipinos have a chance for adequate job locally

No one is poor

Everyone can go to college

Everyone can get treatment when sick

All Filipino families have their own house

Everyone has modern lifestyle

The country is a world leader in science and technology

Vision for the country: Hunger, local employment and poverty are the main economic issues that should be addressed

Base: Total Interviews unwtd/wtd (10000/10000)

I have here statements that people say are important for our economy). Which of the following is the most important condition the country

should attain in the year 2040 (RANK 1)? Which is the second most important (RANK 2)? Which is the third most important (RANK 3)? PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July

6-9, 2016,

Clean, efficient, and service-oriented Government


Base: Total Interviews unwtd/wtd (10000/10000)

82

76

74

72

72

69

16

22

24

26

25

28

1

2

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

Eradication of Corruption

Fair enforcement of the law

Fast and easy processes

Order and Safety in the Community

Fast response towards problems andcomplaints

Enough avenues to be able to ask for help

Definitely important Slightly important

Slightly not important Definitely not important

IMPORTANT NOT

IMPORTANT

NET

IMPORTANCE

98 2 96

98 2 96

98 2 96

97 3 94

97 3 94

97 3 94

Eradication of corruption is the most important aspect of government service that should be addressed


“The Philippines shall be a country where all citizens are free from hunger and poverty, have equal opportunities,

enabled by fair and just society that is governed with order and unity. A nation where families live together, thriving in

vibrant, culturally diverse, and resilient communities.”

Vision of Filipinos for Country


Realizing the Vision


The Life We Want

Matatag • Living together with family • Time with family and friends

(work/life balance)

Panatag • Resources adequate for day-to-

day needs and unexpected expenses

• Security of place • Passive income during

retirement

Maginhawa • Freedom from hunger • and poverty • Guaranteed mobility • Secure home ownership • Travel and vacation

opportunities

Matatag, Maginhawa at Panatag na Buhay


college-educated

5,000 Own one car





home



Income Tax

25,000

Relax with family

and friends

4,000

With the right policies, PHL can be nearly a high-income country by 2040


What does $11,000 per capita income mean?

MALAYSIA

Poverty rate

0.6%


Poverty can be eradicated by 2040, if not sooner.


Requires support and

commitment from the

next 4 Administrations

The challenge of sustaining the vision

Not all achievable

immediately/

simultaneously

Need to

sustain the

momentum

Strategic flexibility

under changing

conditions


Goals: Matatag, Maginhawa, Panatag na buhay

In 2040, the Philippines will be

• A prosperous, predominantly middle-class society; income will have tripled from its base in 2015 and no one is poor;

• A healthy society with life expectancy at birth of at least 80 years;

• A smart and innovative society, and

• A high trust society.

How do we achieve the vision?

• We need to create a responsive, adaptive, resilient, and inclusive

economy driven by productivity growth to create more and better

quality jobs

• Productivity growth and resiliency can happen with:

1. Competitive enterprises generating high quality jobs

2. Agile and nimble high-quality workforce

3. Comprehensive and enabling social policy including social protection

4. Efficiently managed natural resource and environment

5. Citizen-centered, responsive, and accountable government


Consumption and Labor Income vs Age, Philippines


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90+

Tho

usa

nd

s

Age

Per Capita Values, Local Currency (Thousands)

Consumption Labor Income

http://www.ntaccounts.org/web/nta/show/Country Summaries




1. Competitive enterprises generating high quality jobs

• Sufficient high-quality infrastructure, which will make the cost of

moving people, goods and services competitive.

• Sound urban development that takes advantage of scale and

agglomeration economies to make our cities more competitive

and livable.

• Adequate and inclusive financing for small and medium

enterprises and households.


Housing and Urban Development Construction

Construction-related manufacturing

Housing development-related manufacturing

Utilities (EGW)

Priority Sectors

Connectivity Roads and bridges Port Airport Transport (cars) Communication


Priority Sectors

Education Services Formal education Re-tooling services

Tourism-related services Financial services Consumer financing Enterprise financing Insurance Savings mobilization

Health services Agricultural development Countryside development


2. Agile and nimble high-quality workforce

• An education system that equips citizens with

knowledge necessary to occupy high-productivity

employment, while remaining adaptable to changing

needs of the economy.

• An economy that is highly capable of generating and

using technology and innovation.

• A work force that is resilient to income and

employment shocks.


http://www.consultancy.uk/news/1734/wef-bcg-students-lack-skills-needed-in-21st-century PAGBA 2016 2nd Quarterly Seminar, Cagayan De Oro City, July

6-9, 2016,

3. Comprehensive and enabling social policy including social protection

• Easy access to quality health care

• Comprehensive social policy to empower individuals to

achieve aspirations

• Robust resiliency-building strategies


Matatag, Maginhawa at Panatag na Buhay


college-educated

5,000 Own one car





home



Income Tax

25,000

Relax with family

and friends

4,000

3,000C

20,000

12,000

1,000

3,000

13,000 P 57,000

Comprehensive and Enabling Social Policy

5,000C

Source: UNFPA, A Value Proposition for the Demographic Dividend. http://esaro.unfpa.org/sites/esaro/files/pub-pdf/UNFPA%20-%20Demographic%20Dividend%20Value%20Proposition.pdf Accessed: 6 May 2016

Comprehensive and Enabling Social Policy


http://esaro.unfpa.org/sites/esaro/files/pub-pdf/UNFPA - Demographic Dividend Value Proposition.pdf





4. Efficiently managed natural resources and environment

• A competitive and sustainable energy mix

• Natural resources sustainably and responsibly used for development

• Resilient communities protected from risks arising from natural hazards and

climate change.


5. Citizen-centered, responsive, and accountable government

Fiscal Policy

Monetary Policy

Regulatory Policy


Fiscal Policy Sound macroeconomic fundamentals

Strategic fiscal spending program including

tax and nontax investment incentive program to address capacity constraints,

increase competitiveness,

encourage innovation,

reduce inequality,

build up resiliency

What will it take?


Monetary and Financial Policy Low and stable inflation rate Monetary policy that is supportive of

growth Financial inclusion

What will it take?


Regulatory Policy Promote competition (ease of entry, level

playing field) Reduce externalities Reduce the cost of doing business Ensure consumer protection Ensure justice, security and peace

What will it take?


2016-2022

2023-2028

2029-2034

2035-2040

• Requires strong ownership and buy-in by stakeholders and the

country’s leaders over the next 25 years

• Each plan must build on previous plan, not change it

unnecessarily

• Needs and preferences may change over time

• Unexpected developments may arise (e.g. climate, science &

technology)

From vision to action

2016-2022

2023-2028

2029-2034

2035-2040

From vision to action

A prosperous,

predominantly middle-

class society; income will

have tripled from its base

in 2015 and no one is

poor;

A healthy society with life

expectancy at birth of at

least 80 years;

A smart and innovative

society, and

A high trust society.

2016-2022

2023-2028

2029-2034

2035-2040

A prosperous, predominantly middle-class society; income will have tripled from its base in 2015 and no one is poor;

Inclusive growth; reduce inequality; reduce poverty in all dimensions; Factor-driven growth in G1; transition to efficiency-driven in G2

Inclusive growth; reduce inequality; reduce poverty in all dimensions; eradicate Extreme poverty; transition to efficiency-driven in G1; efficiency-driven growth in G2

Rapid growth; reduce inequality; eradicate poverty; efficiency-driven growth in G1; transition to knowledge-driven growth in G2

Sustain rapid growth; reduce inequality; promote knowledge- Driven growth

2016-2022

2023-2028

2029-2034

2035-2040

A healthy society with life expectancy at birth of at least 80 years;

Reduce IMR, U5MR, MMR, malnutrition rate, morbidity due to CD, access to health care

Reduce morbidity due to NCD; access to health care

Promote healthy lifestyle, access to health care

Promote healthy lifestyle, access to health care

2016-2022

2023-2028

2029-2034

2035-2040

A smart and innovative society

Continue education reforms in K-12, begin reforms in higher educ Increase access to educ (K-12, higher ed); promote technology adoption

Access to educ, increase learning opportunities; increase tech adoption

Improve IPR framework; improve learning opportunities

Sustain learning opportunities;

encourage R&D, creativity and

innovation

2016-2022

2023-2028

2029-2034

2035-2040

A high trust society

Build trust in government; enforce peace and order; resume peace talks; Create social and cultural awareness

Promote harmony in diversity; maintain peace and order; Promote national unity; create national brand

Maintain harmony in diversity; maintain peace and order; Maintain national unity; Cultivate national pride

Citizens living in peace and harmony; Proud of their national identity

A people-centered vision leads to people-centered policies

Vision

1st Medium-Term Plan

2nd Medium-Term Plan

3rd Medium-Term Plan

4th Medium-Term Plan


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