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Course Syllabus

Course #: EST 581

EST 581: Heuristics and Quantitative Decision-Making (Formerly: Methods of Socio-technological Decision-Making)

Fall 2017, September 1 – December 8, 2017

Credits: 3

Meeting Days: Friday

Meeting Time: 7:00 - 9:50 p.m.

Meeting Room: B206

Instructor: Patrick Rose, Ph.D.

Office Address: Off campus

Cell Phone: 010-2971-2752

E-mail: parose@inu.ac.kr

Office Hours: By appointment

Last Revised: September 7, 2017

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I. Course Description

Socio-technological issues demand a consideration of their scientific, social, political, economic,

behavioral, legal and ethical problems (choices). Effective socio-technological decision-making

requires a system for assessment (of current status and alternatives); for creation, evaluation,

and communication of options; and implementation of appropriate courses of action, including

but not limited to quantitative techniques. This course will help you to develop a conceptual

framework for assisting in the making and assessment of socio-technological decisions and

consider the heuristic methods that are often used instead to resolve complicated problems.

You will learn some specific techniques for decision-making and understand the advantages

that can be gained by using them. In addition, the course will help you to better understand the

broader context in which scientific and technical contributions to our understanding of the world

must function.

II. Objectives

This course will begin by reviewing the workings of information and communication

technologies. We will learn about how these systems work, what they do and how people

interact with them. Next, we will review decisions common to these systems and explore three

general paradigms to decision-making: 1) Descriptive (Heuristic), 2) Social (Qualitative) and 3)

Normative (Quantitative). We will dive into the specific tools and techniques of decision-making

included in each of these three approaches and the theories that underlie their design. Finally,

we will consider the practicalities and context of decision-making for socio-technical systems in

which practical decision-making methods are normally used and may not be optimal or perfect,

but sufficient for the immediate goals (i.e. heuristic techniques). Throughout the course, we will

apply what we learn during a series of student-lead discussions, hands-on interactive labs and

you will work on a project (case study) of your choosing.

III. Instructional Methods & Expectations

Various instructional methods are used to meet the course objectives, including lecture,

discussions, writing assignment, labs, collaborative projects and student presentations. During

class, the “Think, Pair, Share” cooperative learning technique will be frequently used to

encourage participation and help students to internally process, organize and retain ideas.

Presentations and class discussions are designed to give students the opportunity to learn

higher-level thinking skills from a dialog with their peers and to gain confidence when reporting

their work to the whole class. Outside of class, students will have assigned readings, research

and writing activities. Students will develop and present their own projects.

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IV. Course Text and Reading

Required:

Winning Decisions: Getting It Right the First Time, Edward Russo and Paul Schoemaker

How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business, Douglas Hubbard

Optional:

Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions, Brian Christian and Tom

Griffiths

Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to Be Smart, Ian Ayres

Blink: Power of Thinking Without Thinking, Malcolm Gladwell

The Wisdom of Crowds, James Surowiecki

VI. Course Schedule

September 1: Fundamentals of Technology Systems Management

Lectures: Class Overview, Objectives, Grading

Introduction to Heuristics in Decision-making

Decisions in Managing Socio-Technological Systems

September 8: Programs, Networks and Algorithms

Lectures: Unpacking a Technology: Making Sense of Complex Socio-Technical Systems

Algorithms (Decision Trees) and Systems Maps (Influence Diagrams)

Case Study Examples

Discussion: Q&A About Case Study Project

Lab: Diagram two socio-technical systems.

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September 15: Three Perspectives on Decision-making – Descriptive (Heuristic), Social

(Qualitative) and Normative (Quantitative)

Lectures: Review of three Views: 1) Applied, Rational or Pragmatic Tools and Systems for

Managing People; 2) Actors in Systems and the Social Construction of

Technology; and 3) Analytic (Statistical) Methods

The Best of All Worlds: Mixed-Methods Approach

Discussion: ‘System of Interest' Sharing

Lab: Diagram your Chosen Socio-technical System

September 22: Managerial Decision-making – Psychology Theory

Lectures: Cognitive Theories Related to Decision-making

Performative (Neoliberal) Paradigm

Gilbert’s Behavioral Engineering Theory

Discussions: Chapters from Assigned Reading

Facilitated Article Discussion

Reading: Winning Decisions: Getting It Right the First Time

Lab: Apply the Winning Decisions model.

September 29: Managerial Decision-making Continued – Psychology Theory

Lectures: Prescriptive (“How to Heuristic”) Frameworks for Decision-making

Tools for Modeling and Evaluating a Problem

Structuring Decisions, Sensitivity Analysis and Uncertainty

Discussion: Chapters from Assigned Reading

Facilitated Article Discussion

Lab: Using your chosen project (case study), create a simple decision tree (algorithm)

to model the relationships between decisions, uncertain event drivers and

outcomes. Share your decision tree with a classmate and get their feedback.

Reading: Algorithms to Live By: The Computer Science of Human Decisions

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October 6: No Class

Assignment: Project (Case Study) Proposal

October 13: Statistics for Decision-making – Analytical Methods

Lectures: Informing Decisions through Measurement

Creswell’s Research Spiral

Approaches to Research: Quantitative, Qualitative and Mixed-Methods

Theoretical Modeling

Types of Variables and Types of Data

Probability Basics, Sampling Distributions and Counts and Proportions

Sources of Error and the Do’s and Don’ts of Research

What statistical analysis should I use?

Discussion: Chapters from Assigned Reading

Facilitated Article Discussion

Reading: How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business

Lab: SPSS Intro: Setup Code Book, Define Variables, Enter Data

SPSS Descriptive Statistics: Frequencies, Cross Tabs, Charts

SPSS Probability Statistics: T-test(s), Chi-squared, P-Values

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October 20: Statistics for Decision-making Continued – Analytical Methods

Lectures: Hypothesis Testing and Experimental vs. Quasi-Experimental Design

Analysis of variance (ANOVA), Simple Linear Regression, Correlation Analysis

Multiple Regression

Time Series Analysis for Forecasting

Discussion: Chapters from Assigned Reading

Facilitated Article Discussion

Lab: SPSS Correlation Statistics: ANOVA(s), Linear Regression, Multiple Regression,

Factor Analysis, Cluster Analysis, MANOVA

Reading: Super Crunchers: Why Thinking-by-Numbers Is the New Way to Be Smart

October 27: Statistics for Decision-making Continued – Analytical Methods

Lectures: Judgment Forecasting, Risk Analysis, Utility Theory and Linear Programming

Basics

Presenting / Reporting Research Results

Ethical Check in Research

Discussion: Chapters from Assigned Reading

Facilitated Article Discussion

Lab: As a group, review the scenario provided and answer the following questions.

What types of forecasts might be required and what forecasting techniques

would be most appropriate? What persistent, direct factors might you need to

forecast? What persistent, indirect factors might you need to forecast? Outline

the forecast process you would apply? How would you manage the forecasting

process?

November 3: Sociology of Decision-making – Social Theory

Lectures: Technology & Culture

Social Shaping of Technology

Images of Systems from Sociology: Functionalism versus Conflict versus

Symbolic Internationalism

Facilitated Article Discussion

Lab: TBA

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Reading: Blink: Power of Thinking Without Thinking

November 10: Sociology of Decision-making Continued – Social Theory

Lectures: Analysis and Judgment versus Group Problem Solving and Intuition (social

constructivism)

Diffusion Theory, Social Capital, Social Networks and Other Social Theories

Tools for Group Decisions

Facilitated Article Discussion

Lab: TBA

Midterm Exam

November 17: Decision-making in Organizations – Contextualizing Decisions

Lectures: Social Networks and Organizational Culture

Structuring and Communicating Decisions: Leading Change

Discussion: Chapters from Assigned Reading

Lab: TBA

Reading: The Wisdom of Crowds, James Surowiecki

November 24: Decision-making in Organizations Continued – Contextualizing Decisions

Lectures: Individual Differences

Monitoring, Learning and Revising Spiral

Technology to Support Decision Making

Facilitated Article Discussion

Lab: TBA

December 1: Student Project Presentations

December 8: Student Project Presentations

December 15: Finals Week

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V. Evaluation & Grading

Students will choose to examine and problem solve a specific socio-technical system and

present their research. Students will open the ‘black box’ of a technology, explain how it

operates within a socio-technical system, troubleshoot problems with the technology and make

recommendations. Throughout the semester, students will work collaboratively – presenting,

discussing and critiquing their work together. In addition, students are required to complete two

facilitated article discussions, two chapter review presentation from each assigned text, a

project proposal and one midterm exam. Final grades will be based on performance and grades

on these learning activities as listed below.

Grade Calculation

Activity Points

Possible

Participation / Attendance 20

Written Assignments 10

Midterm Exam 20

Case Study Proposal 10

Case Study Presentation 10

Case Study Report 30

Course Assignments

Written Assignments: Two Facilitated Article Discussions (10 points)

Rules: 1-inch margins; 12-point font; double-spaced

Briefly summarize (2 pages) and submit a written paper on two research articles. You will

facilitate a class discussions about the articles’ content. The objective of this assignment is to

generate critical thinking about trends and issues related to decision-making at is relates to

socio-technical systems in general and specifically to your project topic. You are required to find

one that discusses/addresses current research, trends or issues related to your project. You

may address the following questions in your article write-up: 1) the objectives and hypotheses of

the article; 2) the importance of the issues to understanding socio-technical; 3) the research

reported in the article, including the design of the study, 4) the key results and conclusions, 5)

strengths and weaknesses of the study, and 6) what implications does the information

presented have for the class and your project? See Appendix A for Research Article Facilitated

Discussion Rubric.

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Midterm Exam (20 points)

The mid-term exam will test your understanding of assigned readings and lecture material to

assess that you are keeping pace with the class. It will have multiple-choice, short answer, and

analytical reasoning questions that will test your understanding of the lectures and the required

text. (20 points)

Case Study Proposal (10 points)

Rules: 1-inch margins; 12-point font; double-spaced; 2 pages

Select a socio-technical system as your case study. Look for something you are curious about

and you want to learn about a deep level. The socio-technical system you choose will serve as

your semester-long project.

Project (Case Study) Presentation (10 points)

Rules: 30 minutes, follow the outline

Use PowerPoint or another presentation software to briefly summarize, present and lead a

discussion about your project to the class. Use the same outline for your project report provided

below for your presentation. Your presentation should engage the class and encourage

students to participate in a discussion with you. See Appendix B for Project (Case Study)

Presentation Rubric.

Project (Case Study) Report for PhD students or Website for MA students (30 points)

Rules: 1-inch margins; 12-point font; double-spaced; 12-15 pages or create a website.

Socio-Technical Analysis: Describe the socio-technical system (What is it?), the architecture

(What are the technical components?) and the algorithm of the system (How does it work?),

how people interact with the system (How is it used?), and how the system is evaluated (What

data does it produce?). Conduct secondary research (What is the history of the technology, who

invented it and why?). Include a system map. You are encouraged to interview experts,

decision-makers, system designers and the other people who regularly interact with the system.

Include a system map and algorithm chart.

Gather Intel: Include a bibliography of at least five relevant annotated sources discussing their

significance for the project. Compare, synthesize and summarize the findings of your secondary

research.

Frame the Decision: Define the current situation in terms of problems, gaps, issues, concerns

or ramifications about the system (Who is affected by it and how, and does it work as

expected?) based on your data and insights of the system. What is the difference between the

actual situation and desired situation (performance deficiency)?

Identify Alternatives: Using decision-making models, tools and techniques covered in this

courses, describe and evaluate possible scenarios (options) for addressing the problem(s) and

choices in an analytical fashion. Break down complex problems into smaller components that

can be logically addressed. Evaluate each option based on benefits, costs, timeliness,

acceptability, ethical soundness and other factors. In a clear and straightforward way, describe

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the actions that could be taken resolve the discrepancy. What are the possible action

alternatives, probabilities and risks? Include a decision tree.

Select a Solution: These are the “conclusions:” of your semester-long research. Briefly

summarize the system as a whole, make recommendations on how to change and/or improve

the system and justify your choices. What is the solution you are recommending that is tailored

to the situation at hand? Describe how would implement your selected decisions and evaluate

the results?

VI. Additional Course Information

Class Participation: An important aspect of this class is discussion, and therefore, class

attendance is important. Each student should read the material in advance and be prepared to

offer their insight into class topics. Participation is required ‒ both in class as well as outside of

class. Outside of class, students should complete the reading assigned materials and work on

their final project sections. Failure to participate in class discussions and to prepare for leading

class discussion as assigned will affect your grade.

Late Work Policy: No exams can be taken early or late, unless there is a university excused

absence. Make up exams will only be given in light of a university excused absence. Inform me

of your absence before or within 2 days after the examination date.

Grading Scale: Grading will follow a standard scale: 90%+ is an A, 80%+ is a B, 70%+ is a C

and 60%+ is a D. Grades cannot be changed unless the instructor makes a computational error.

Moreover, grades will not be revealed via e-mail or telephone. No extra credit. Students’ grades

will be posted on Blackboard.

Blackboard: All non-textbook class materials and grades are available through Blackboard.

Students should read the posted material in order to be prepared for class. New articles and

material may be added over the course of the semester.

Connected Mobile Devices: Turn off mobile phones. If you leave class to take a call, do not

come back in the classroom until class is finished. The instructor prefers that you take

handwritten notes because this method enhances learning and retention, but notebook

computers and tablets may be used by students during class to genuinely take notes or conduct

research during project time. However, students may not use connected mobile devices to

engage in activities unrelated to the course. Students using computers to take notes during

class will sit in the back of the classroom as not to distract other students.

Class Start Time: Show up for class at the starting time, not a few minutes late. If you are not

in class at the starting time, you are considered absent. Exams will start promptly at five minutes

after class starting time. You cannot start the exam after 15 minutes past the starting hour.

Class Attendance: Attendance will be taken daily throughout the semester. You are

responsible for attending class and for all materials covered in class. If you miss more than

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three classes, you will lose a letter grade; and more than five unexcused absences (30% of the

course) will result in an ‘F’ grade. If you are seeking an excused absence, you must notify the

instructor as soon as possible after the absence, but no later than the end of the second

working day after the last date of absence. If the absence occurs the same day as a scheduled

exam or other graded procedure, the student must notify the instructor or department by the end

of the next working day after the absence to ensure full rights. You are responsible for providing

satisfactory evidence to the instructor within one week of your return to substantiate the reason

for the absence (see Absentee Policy from http://sunykorea.ac.kr/academics/29 University

Conduct Code and Student Handbook).

IX. University Policies

Class Disruptions: Disrupting class is a serious violation of university rules and regulations.

Electronic communication devices such as cell phones are disruptive if they ring during class.

Please turn them off before class.

Plagiarism Statements and Academic Dishonesty: As commonly defined, plagiarism

consists of passing off as one’s own the ideas, words, writings, etc., which belong to another. In

accordance with the definition, you are committing plagiarism if you copy the work of another

person and turn it in as your own, even if you should have the permission of the person.

Plagiarism is one of the worst academic sins, for the plagiarist destroys the trust among

colleagues without which research cannot be safely communicated. If you have any questions

regarding plagiarism or other forms of academic misconduct, please consult with the instructor

or the writing center.

The Americans with Disabilities Act: SUNY seeks to provide equal access to its programs,

services, and activities for people with disabilities. If you will need accommodations in this class,

please contact One-Stop Service Center, Building A201, (82) 32-626-1117.

Sexual Misconduct: Title IX makes it clear that violence and harassment based on sex and

gender (which Includes sexual orientation and gender identity/expression) is a civil rights

offense subject to the same kinds of accountability and the same kinds of support applied to

offenses against other protected categories such as race, national origin, color, religion, age,

status as a person with a disability, veteran’s status or genetic information. If you or someone

you know has been harassed or assaulted, you are encouraged to report it.

Student Code:

http://sb.cc.stonybrook.edu/bulletin/current/

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Appendix A

Research Article Facilitated Discussion Rubric

Criteria

Article Submission

used an article that is newsworthy, current,

and from a reputable source, attached

article to summary, correct citation

Summary / Content

objectives, methods, results and conclusions

of the articled are well organized and

presented in-depth

Appropriate to Topic article is very relevant to the class and

meets expectations

Significance

article has great significance, student

displays understanding of article’s relevance

to topic

Engagement / Discussion

provided excellent discussion with

important main points highlighted that

addresses all 6 questions

Score

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Appendix B

Project (Case Study) Presentation Rubric

Criteria

Organization

information is presented in a logical

sequence that flows well and the audience

can follow

Content

material presented is logical and relevant,

there are obvious objectives, main points

and conclusions

Presentation

the presentation is interesting, speaker

engages the audience and speaks loudly,

clearly and precisely, information is well

communicated, transitions are smooth

Subject Matter Knowledge

student makes connections to the project to

the subject matter of the class, demonstrates

a grasp of subject knowledge as it is applied

to his/her project, answers questions with

explanations and elaborations

Mechanics

presentation has no grammatical or spelling

errors, graphics are appropriate reinforce

text, writing is original and articulate

Score